# To a prepper, does it really matter how high silver climbs?



## Cabin Fever (May 10, 2002)

I'm wondering - to a prepper - does it really matter how high the price of silver or other PM climbs? We bought our silver for security reasons, not as an investment. By security, I mean our silver was purchased for the sole purpose to be used in case of TEOTWAWKI or a SHTF situation, in other words, when paper money is worthless. 

I view our silver purchase as analogous to buying fire extinguishers. If the price of fire extinguishers are high today, I am not going to wait until there is a price drop before I buy some. I want the protection - the security - they offer now, tomorrow may be too late. Nor am I going to sell our fire extinguishers - that we bought for $20 - just because the current price of extinguishers is $50.

So, let the price of silver climb to $100 or even $1000, we are still not going to sell ours. Likewise, if silver drops to $10, we are not going to feel like it was foolish for buying it at $30. Like our guns, ammo, food stores, seeds, and other supplies, our silver is serving a purpose, we don't plan on using the silver until necessary; nor, do we plan to unload it if the price gets high. It was not purchased as an investment.

What about you?


----------



## Txrider (Jun 25, 2010)

IMO precious metals should be a long term investment to hedge against inflation, basically siphon off a % of income into them for a long term hedge against inflation or any other issue that investment in company stocks or funds can't do.

So it really shouldn't matter for either a prepper or a non prepper how high it climbs really.. That should only matter to short term investors, folks hopping in to make a buck. And if the economy heats up a bit and the fed stop printing money a whole lot can jump out and drop the price of silver a lot, but that should not matter to a long term investor.

Kinda like all the folk who took such a beating selling out all their mutual funds, 401k's etc. when the market tanked back in '08... instead of waiting a bit for it to come back up. For long term investments like that you have to expect some highs and lows over the years and not panic.

People call the stock market a casino.. If you approach it that way you'll get burned just like the casinos get you. The stock market is for buying stock in good solid companies that give you a return on your investment over the long term, not a get rich quick lottery..


----------



## PhilJohnson (Dec 24, 2006)

While it may be a good investment I question whether silver would be a good thing to have in a hard crash SHTF situation. In a hyper-inflationary situation where there is still somewhat of a functioning government and banking industry I could see silver being a very good thing to have. For folks that don't have a lot of cash I think stockpiling steel and copper would be a very good inflation hedge.


----------



## Ernie (Jul 22, 2007)

If it climbs high enough I might divest myself of some to buy more land or certain other supplies I need, but ultimately I like silver as a trading mechanism post-fall and wouldn't want to get rid of too much.

Still, I have other things to trade and once Forerunner and I get our moonshine still going we'll be set for life.


----------



## AngieM2 (May 10, 2002)

> Still, I have other things to trade and once Forerunner and I get our moonshine still going we'll be set for life.


Ah, going for "the remedy", strictly for medicinal purposes - I'm sure


----------



## bee (May 12, 2002)

What Ernie said(about silver not stills!!). If I had it and it got high enough there are prep items I can't buy now but might sell silver to obtain..oh like a greenhouse or more/better fencing and I do want good quaility dairy goats......potbelly meatpigs and a tillapia tank...*sigh* an Icelandic riding horse!!!*...urmmmmm "go silver go!!!!:happy::happy::happy:


----------



## TnAndy (Sep 15, 2005)

I initially bought silver for that reason.....a money of last resort. And I will always keep a fair portion ( especially my 90% coins ) for that.

But the more I came to understand silver, the market for it, the industrial needs and how little is actually available, I have come to believe there is a very good chance silver will outperform lots of other investment classes.

The market for silver is so tiny compared to the market for even a stock like Apple, for example, it's quite possible for a few hedge or pension funds to move into silver and cause a runup in price into the hundreds of dollars per ounce range. The industrial requirement for silver is so critical, that a 3-5 fold increase from here is NOT going to affect the price of most industrial uses.

Take a cell phone, for example, that uses maybe 1/20 of a ounce in it....at current price, that is 2 bucks worth of silver.....at 200 buck silver, that's 10 dollars worth of silver in a 200-300 buck cell phone. Are they going to quit making phones because their costs went up 8 dollars ?? Nope....they will simply pass it on to the buyer of the phone......inflation.

Same for many, many, many uses of silver.

Industry will drive the price, followed closely by speculators that understand that industry HAS TO HAVE IT. There just is no acceptable substitute for silver use that isn't already much higher in price ( like palladium or gold )...and NO substitute in some cases, due to the unique chemical/physical properties of silver.

THIS is why the world has used up most of the 40-45 billion ounces of silver ever mined in the history of mankind....GONE....SCATTERED TO THE FAR CORNERS OF THE EARTH and ECONOMICALLY UNRECOVERABLE.......whereas most of the gold ever mined, about 5.5 billion ounces, is still around in coin, bullion or jewelry form.

If people ever REALLY get a clue how rare silver is compared to gold, you'll see signs out there "We buy old photos" ! or "We pay gold for silver"......ahahahaaaaaa

What I think is coming is a gradual run up in silver price that you have been seeing over the last several years, until it hits SOME magic tipping point ( and no, I don't know what that is....but my guess is somewhere between 50 and 100 ) at which the world actually takes notice, and THEN it will be "Katy, bar the door" as speculators really kick in. 

Prices will double and triple in short order. THAT will truly be a speculative bubble, I think, and a time to consider moving out of some of your silver and into something else IF you need that something else. Otherwise, you're going to see it spike into the low/mid hundreds, and then watch it come back down to probably 100-200 and then start to keep pace with inflation again.

In any case, silver has a LONG way to run over the next few years, assuming the world doesn't fall apart. And if it does, well, we're back to "money of last resort" again. I can't for the life of me see how having some silver at this time can be a bad position to be in, again, assuming you have a good handle on other prep areas.


----------



## NamasteMama (Jul 24, 2009)

Silver is going up due to inflation. With the value of the dollar dropping like a hot rock, you bet I am going to transfer my money. Of course we are totally broke right now, so this is in theory.


----------



## TnAndy (Sep 15, 2005)

NamasteMama said:


> Silver is going up due to inflation.


Not really. 

Silver went up 80+% last year, and is up about 30% this year so far. 

As bad as inflation is ( running about 15%/yr according to John Williams at Shadow Stats using the formula the govt used to use ), silver has far and away outpaced it.

The price of silver has been suppressed for many years as the behest of the Silver Users Association, to supply them with a cheap resource. Massive selling of paper silver into the market held the price down, and that is now slipping away, and the true market price of silver is about to be discovered. 

I think that will somewhere in the 80-120 dollar range ( based on today's dollar ), but as I said above, will likely way overshoot it in a speculative spike for a short while....then it will settle back to reality, meet market demand, and keep pace with inflation at that point just like most other commodities. 

Disclosure: My crystal ball fogged over years ago.....due your own research and come to your own conclusions.


----------



## Tracy Rimmer (May 9, 2002)

For me, it's just a gauge by which to track, roughly, how many people might be "getting it". The price rises with demand, so more demand probably means a few more people clueing in. I realize that not ALL of the demand is likely to be driven by this, but certainly some of it.


----------



## Guest (Apr 11, 2011)

So long as I have other, renewable, resources at my disposal to get the things I need my silver will be retained for all the reasons Cabin Fever outlines.


----------



## ryanthomas (Dec 10, 2009)

I have about half of my precious metals reserved for just such post-SHTF trading. The other half I consider an investment/inflation hedge. I am a little more willing to sell gold than silver. TnAndy explained a lot of the way I think about silver, better than I ever could. The only caveat is, post-SHTF, industrial demand for silver will probably drop. But that isn't really a problem either, since whatever you're holding is still money, IF you have it in physical silver and not certificates or stocks. I also stockpile steel in several forms, since I think it may someday be a "precious metal," if not to the population at large, at least to me. It will certainly always hold some value that currency will not.


----------



## secretcreek (Jan 24, 2010)

bee said:


> What Ernie said(about silver not stills!!). If I had it and it got high enough there are prep items I can't buy now but might sell silver to obtain..oh like a greenhouse or more/better fencing and I do want good quaility dairy goats......potbelly meatpigs and a tillapia tank...*sigh* an Icelandic riding horse!!!*...urmmmmm "go silver go!!!!:happy::happy::happy:


If you want to purchase quality dairy does, check out the wonderful genetics=high quality=will hold up longer Saanen does at: www.kickadeehill.com This WV ( near Charlstn) diarygoat breeder has held offices in the ADGA, and Saanen clubs. She's raised goats for a very very long time...and wins when she shows them. Again, these are not auction "who knows what" goats...these are the cream of the crop-years of perfecting big milk producing Saanens. * I only met her once, but I send people in her direction all the time as I know she raises top quality does. A friend bought a nice, big wether from her and trained him for WV mountian S&R. 

-scrt crk


----------



## bee (May 12, 2002)

thanks..but I had nubians and this time am going smaller..milking nigerians(someday as silver is back below 41/oz and falling....)


----------



## Brokeneck (Mar 1, 2011)

I'm fairly good friends with the local coin dealer, He sells and buys alot of silver and gold. When it hit 40 that was aparently a couple of fairly large investors magic number to BUY! He sold 70K to one and 100K to another. Dont know why they waited to buy until 40? Any ideas on that?
Brokeneck


----------



## Explorer (Dec 2, 2003)

You could always play the gold/silver ration. Sell one when things get out of balance and buy the other. I like tenth ounce gold bullion coins even though they are a little more expensive as they should be easier to spend if the SHTF . Currently they are at about a 1:5 ratio.


----------



## Wisconsin Ann (Feb 27, 2007)

Now see....you all look at silver as an investment, or something to save to use as "cash" if there's a huge crash. Me...I use it. I build jewelry and utensils with it. I plate items with it. At the moment I can get double or triple the base cost of .999 silver if I make it into a simple bezel or just draw it into wire. 

so....While I will always keep some "just in case", I'll keep using mine. It's a little like rotating your other items. You use up what it getting old, and buy new. With the metals, as long as I can still buy it for a reasonable amount, I'll rotate and make money to buy more land or machines while I still can. At the same time, you buy the amount of silver that you've used, thus keeping your stock at the same level. 

Another thought....if someone has silver (or gold) stored as a prep item, and they find a good piece of land...well, makes PERFECT sense to me to sell that metal and buy the land. There is absolutely NO sense in hoarding the silver at $1,000 a ozt, when you need land, or house, or paying off bills instead of losing your house.


----------



## Cabin Fever (May 10, 2002)

Wisconsin Ann said:


> Another thought....if someone has silver (or gold) stored as a prep item, and they find a good piece of land...well, makes PERFECT sense to me to sell that metal and buy the land. There is absolutely NO sense in hoarding the silver at $1,000 a ozt, when you need land, or house, or paying off bills instead of losing your house.


Good thought, but I would imagine that if silver hit $1000/oz, land would hit $10,000/acre at the same time.

Which brings another thought to mind. Seems like a lot of folks may believe that they will have more purchasing power with silver when it hits some outrangeously high value (compared to the dollar). How many believe that if you can fill your vehicle's gas tank with a silver dollar today, when silver reaches $1000/oz, you will be able to fill your gas tank 20-times with the same silver dollar? I guess I don't. I'm of the mind that IF silver reaches $1000/oz, I'll still only be able to fill my gas tank once with a silver dollar.


----------



## ryanthomas (Dec 10, 2009)

Land is already 10 grand an acre here! But I think your idea is valid for gold, but less so for silver, since silver is a more useful metal. Its price is based more on demand, not just on inflation. I think gold has kept a little ahead of inflation, while silver has at times increased quite a bit beyond inflation. At least that's how I understand it. I may be wrong.


----------



## TnAndy (Sep 15, 2005)

Guess I don't quite get your point, CF.

Takes 120 "dollars" now to fill my pickup. 

Assuming silver ever went to 1,000/oz. and gas was still the same as today ( unlikely, but say it happened ) a silver dollar ( about 3/4oz ) would buy 6.25 tanks for me. A silver dime ( 0.7oz ) would be very close to one tank.

And if gas is still priced in FRN dollars, then trade the silver dollar for paper money, and buy your gas.

In 1964, gas was 25 cents/gallon.....a silver dollar, or 4 quarters or 10 dimes would buy 4 gallons.

Today a dollar face in silver is right at 29 paper dollars. At 4 paper dollars per gallon, you get little over 7 gallons for the exact same dollar in silver that bought 4 gallons in 1964.

Either silver has gone up in value, or oil has gone done, relative to each other.


----------



## Jim-mi (May 15, 2002)

That "green house" idea is tempting . . . .But these times are so crazy that I think I'll retain what I have because "tomorrow" is so gosh awful uncertain........

Could be interesting in the future finding "people in the know" so as too trade a coin for a tank of fuel.......


----------



## Cabin Fever (May 10, 2002)

Gosh, it's an analogy....let's not parse the numbers or get hung up on the commodity I used. My point is, if silver ever climbs to an unheard of high (eg, $1000/oz) will it due to it's intrinsic value, due to uncontrolled inflation or due to the lack of faith in the US dollar (or a combination of all three)? I really don't believe that silver will have that much more purchasing power in uber inflationary times. Under such conditions, an ounce of silver will likely buy the same amount of whatever commodity as an ounce will buy today.


----------



## ryanthomas (Dec 10, 2009)

But you're ignoring the actual value of the silver, above and beyond its intrinsic value as a store of wealth. If you go by intrinsic value only, then yes, an ounce of silver will probably buy the same in 100 years as it will today. But silver has more value than just as a store of wealth, because it is also useful. So is gold, but not nearly as much.


----------



## DryHeat (Nov 11, 2010)

Nobody's mentioned on this thread that report that Morgan-Chase Bank likely (but not *certainly* to my mind) is still caught in a progressive paper silver short squeeze situation. If they in fact are still far on the wrong side (short) of a pile of derivatives, and the reports are that it could be by an institution-ruinous hundreds of billions of bucks or so, there could still yet be quite a run upwards in the cards. However, if that is so, the inflation tracking and industrial applications pressures aren't likely to support the price a whit at whatever its short-squeeze top after more exponential run upwards actually is. I do wonder if there'll even be a way to liquidate metal silver as that peak is approached, even if it's "only" $75 or $100 an ounce. The Hunt brothers were ruined cornering the physical silver market at around $50 by a "change in the rules" by investment entities, and here there might be some parallel rules change to bail out Chase, if that's actually THE big background factor, under the "too big to fail" theory. Any sniff that something like that is developing and I'd not be a bit surprised to see outfits like Apmex stop buying, or at least drop their "buy" price really low relative to what their "sell" price continues at.

All I have that I might sell at this price stage is a paltry $50 face of 40% halves. I'm letting the "greed" play still influence me not to put up a Craigslist ad for them at $550 or so, depending on spot, but with really only a couple hundred $$ at stake there anyway, I suppose I'm guessing there's a couple more months of gradual price increase still in the cards before I'll shift that value into some other preps.


----------



## Spinner (Jul 19, 2003)

*To a prepper, does it really matter how high silver climbs?*

*YES!*

The higher silver climbs, the lower the FRN falls until it is gone. We use FRN's to buy preps, so yes, it matters to this prepper and I think it matters to all preppers whether they realize it or not.


----------



## texican (Oct 4, 2003)

I don't care how high it goes, silver stays here. Having read a wee bit about inflation/hyper-inflation, (Zimbabwe and Germany), why would I ever cash out into fiat currency.

I'd go with the long term purchasing value of silver/gold over the last 150 years... instead of short term relative values.


----------



## Blu3duk (Jun 2, 2002)

Ive said it before, yes i will sell my silver if I want, but in turn i will buy an investment coin that has traditionally held its value over the years higher than other investments. But a person has to know rare coins for what i am typing about. Certain coins are highly sought after by a select group of collectors, and every now and again a couple new fellas or ladies join that group and seek out certain "type" coins of high grades and rarity.... and of course there are alwsys those who would love to be in that crowd one day who collect better grade specimens for the *"ART"* and beauty.

There are those folks who will never understand the beauty of a coin lioke i am typing about, and probably several folks who think its foolish as well, but like i said as an investment i would do it that way. Over the weekend i picked up a $100+ 1925 Stone Mountain commemorative for one of the kids to keep as an investment coin. So deals can still be lucked into, and like ive said before, this high price of silver has brought folks out of the woodwork selling off the few coins they have driving the price of numismatics of circulated grades down somewhat as more coins are brought to the market, but that helps me too cause i can upgrade certain coins in a collection and move the "fillers" to the "junk" pile for later or to sell off and add a little more to the better grade coins.

I am not rich by any means, and what i bought this week is probably all I can purchase for the rest of the month til I can get back to the creek and dig up more gold and sell it off.... yes i buy silver and sell gold. I also use silver in refining gold to higher purity... cause that is how i was taught and it works well... industry on a small scale, but i can recover what i use too.

William
Idaho


----------



## Callieslamb (Feb 27, 2007)

Well, if silver gets high enough to pay off our place - we'll pay it off. Until then, I think we will keep it.


----------



## silverbackMP (Dec 4, 2005)

Generally speaking, numismatics (coins way past spot) are for collectors and bullion (gold/silver at spot + premium) is for investors/speculators/peppers. Note that I said generally speaking...just trying to keep folks new to the market from buying some Goldline specials.


----------



## mightybooboo (Feb 10, 2004)

I would sell physical IF it was what it took to buy a homestead cash,otherwise no,would hold it up or down.

Ive definitely turned more bearish lately.Im waiting for the big double dip and i think its coming.With so much silver and gold held in ETF's when the market takes a dive,so will the metals ,just like they did when the market dived in 2008. It happened just a couple years ago so this isnt much speculating on my part,recent history says this it what it does in todays world.

Only thing different has been the huge printing press buying debt.Thats what Im not sure about on how that will play,the game for Banksters is push inflation and they seem to get their way.

I think inflation and deflation can co exist....now how do you figure how that eqaution will play out.

Confusing times but unbridled Bull,not my mindset right now.Just because silver costs 1000/oz in US monopoly money doesnt mean it,1 oz silver, will buy 250 gallons of gas in the NEW reserve currency,it may only buy 10? Or one?

Thats the uncertainty.If our dollar is worthless doesnt mean AbuDabhi's is also.They might be buying an oz at 40 of their dollars.And your 1000 DOLLAR oz might only buy 40 dollars worth of AbuDabhi's gas.


----------



## Ohio Rusty (Jan 18, 2008)

If silver hits $50. I'm selling everything I have. I'll put that money away in savings. When the silver bubble busts and it drops back to $5. I'll use that money and buy 10 times the amount I had and put it away. When it hits $50 again ..... Lather, rinse, repeat .....
Ohio Rusty ><>


----------



## TnAndy (Sep 15, 2005)

Good luck with that plan.


----------



## ryanthomas (Dec 10, 2009)

Blu3duk said:


> Ive said it before, yes i will sell my silver if I want, but in turn i will buy an investment coin that has traditionally held its value over the years higher than other investments. But a person has to know rare coins for what i am typing about. Certain coins are highly sought after by a select group of collectors, and every now and again a couple new fellas or ladies join that group and seek out certain "type" coins of high grades and rarity.... and of course there are alwsys those who would love to be in that crowd one day who collect better grade specimens for the *"ART"* and beauty.


If TSHTF, I kind of have a feeling the market for collectors will drop to almost nothing. But I don't know, it depends on who these people are who collect these coins. If they're still alive and can still afford to buy them, you'll make money. But those are big ifs.


----------



## Blu3duk (Jun 2, 2002)

ryanthomas,

the folks who collect art in the form of rare coins usually have an obsession for those coins, and will trade their last sack of beans to get the coin they want sometimes..... cause tomorrow the sun will rise and set the same as always, but that rare coin might not come around again for some time to them.

during the so called "great depression" there were collectors who never lost it all and kept on collecting just as if nothing happened, and yes there were those who stepped out the window like others of the time too i am sure.... 

There is a market for coins that the government which minted them fell hundreds if not thousands of years long ago, why would that change once the several states fall??? And if you have the date that the world as we know it is gonna end please do tell it, cause then everyone here would be ahead and could act accordingly.... since no one knows if such a day exists in the future, we do what we do to make things right withour families, and stay sane while getting it done.

Some folks are addicted to smokes, others to booze, I happen to have penchant for rare coins, though not as bad as some and realize there will always be those who collect them just for collectings sake, the rare coins i have are my legacy to my kids, all three already appreciate coins and know the value, and history of many of those coins and the times from which they were minted. And while we can not eat them, burn them, or wear them, we do appreciate them for what they are and will always be just like any other art collector.

Ive been prepping for years, picking up this tool or that tool as i needed it or a decent deal came along, ive got books numbering in the thousands, we recently bought a house to no longer have to pay rent to our "neighbor", though now we pay rent to the bank and the state, and i have been saying the economy was gettng to the point it was gonna crash for the last five or so years but got tired of telling folks who would did nothing, so i buy coins, plant a garden, hunt when i can, and prospect for gold in the river and maintain a website selling prospecting supplies hold classes teaching others to extract gold from the rivers who are interested for what ever reason. I have skills that i can dust off when i have to and get by if the whole world crashes and we go back to living in the caves that not many people have though some desire those skills.

So it does not matter what price silver reaches, except as it gets higher, if wages do not keep up those without metal will find themself somewhat suffering until total collapse happens if indeed it does. 'I will continue to buy and sell as needed to support my habits.

William
Idaho


----------



## ryanthomas (Dec 10, 2009)

I agree with everything you said, William. I just see the collectible coins as investments, not as preps. Of course they could still be used even if no one cared for the numismatic value, but you would only get the metal value out of them. Anyway, from what I've read of your posts, I believe you know what you're talking about, so I'll take your word that the market will always be there. I know next to nothing about collectible coins.


----------



## Gabriel (Dec 2, 2008)

Ohio Rusty said:


> If silver hits $50. I'm selling everything I have. I'll put that money away in savings. When the silver bubble busts and it drops back to $5. I'll use that money and buy 10 times the amount I had and put it away. When it hits $50 again ..... Lather, rinse, repeat .....
> Ohio Rusty ><>


:smiley-laughing013: If this is a bubble, why do you think it will make it to $50? Why hasn't it burst already? Or... why won't it make it to $100? 

For more reasons than I have time to type out, silver will NEVER go back to $5.00, unless there is a major revaluation of the currency. Is it overbought right this minute? Perhaps. Will there be a downward correction? Quite possibly, although it may go up some more before it goes back down. However, corrections are the norm in any market. So please, educate me as to why this is a bubble. 

If you spend money to get into any market where you don't understand the fundamentals, it's not investing. It's gambling.


----------



## machinist (Aug 3, 2010)

A trade in the sense of trading on the stock exchange, or "daytrading" investments--that is how I have approached silver. I bought some back when spot was $13, and if I sold today at $40, would only get twice what I paid, due to the dealer margins and to the TWENTY EIGHT PER CENT "collectibles" tax on the gains. The "haircut" one must endure to buy and sell PM's is atrocious, IMHO. 

I don't have enough capital to let that money sit forever, and I'm old. I can't spend silver directly today at Wal Mart or many other places. So, I will sell the silver for FRN's when it is no longer gaining price faster than inflation. I will buy steel and welding supplies for my machine shop, and any other obvious need at that time. 

Because I don't have much money, and I don't expect Social Security to continue to support me, I will someday have to re-open my repair shop for business. (In the meantime, I am doing our prep work.) 

I may keep a small amount of silver coins for SHTF trading possibility, but Taxes will most likely be due in whatever is coin-of-the-realm at any particular time. That means I will have to continue to participate in the economy in order to have funds to pay property taxes and to buy what I need. With a depreciating dollar, however, I cannot let much money sit in FRN's lest it devalue. Therefore, if I cannot hedge against inflation with something like silver, I will do so with something else. 

Worth considering is that when something makes a spectacular price move, very soon the situation changes. Most often, TPTB change the rules if the game is going against them. We small fry are left to get along the best we can. I prefer to stay out of the way of such shenanigans. Examples that come to mind are:
-Jacking up the margin requirements to defeat the Hunt brothers attempt to corner the silver market. (They just did that again recently IIRC, to drop the price of silver.)
-Gold confiscation in the 1930's. (Less likely now, probably, since we are no longer on the gold standard and the Fed can expand the money supply at will--but they DID change the rules there.)
-Congress outlawed commercial banks from being investment banks, as a reaction to the bank problems during the Depression. Recently, that was repealed and banks have again run amok. 

So, rules DO change, and not for the benefit of the general public. This is worth some sober thinking about the possibilities, I believe. 

Also, PM's are a game run and rigged by the big money crowd. Presently, I believe that J P Morgan is being sued for manipulating the silver market, and it looks like that case may be proven. Since I am a financial nobody, I have no illusions about being able to run with those big dogs. So, I plan to stay on my porch. 

I got lucky with my little silver investment, but I don't plan to push the idea. Rather than continuing to speculate, I am much more comfortable owning a few chickens, some big gardens, an orchard, some solar PV, a water supply, and a machine shop that is paid for.


----------



## mightybooboo (Feb 10, 2004)

About all we agree on is nothing beats no debt and home ownership as the best spot of all for peace of mind.

I have to tell you those with a lot of faith in bank,I tried to withdraw 6G today and 'they had to order it'.... that is NOT liquidity and shows how fast your money you saved may NOT actually be available in a crunch.FDIC promises or any other promise,Banks are scary places right now.

Point being,things are VERY squirrely yet.


----------



## mightybooboo (Feb 10, 2004)

Gabriel said:


> :smiley-laughing013: If this is a bubble, why do you think it will make it to $50? Why hasn't it burst already? Or... why won't it make it to $100?
> 
> For more reasons than I have time to type out, silver will NEVER go back to $5.00, unless there is a major revaluation of the currency.


So it makes 100,and coffee is 20 dollars for 33 oz,what difference does it make,you havent suddenly 'got rich'.Metal isnt going up much,the dollar IS collapsing through the theft of your earnings known as inflation.Once theyve grabbed your savings it is a reality check,your standard of living is going DOWN.

Its being re valued right now.Go grocery shopping.

The Big Boys and their mouthpiece Soros want nothing more than to destroy our currency.Look at the PIGS nations,they got em all corralled but Spain.....the Euro zone is looking UGLY.Those folks are now OWNED by the Banksters,very scary indeed!!!

We are not immune,we are the reserve currency and TPTB are working HARD to eliminate that. 

This isnt over or recovering,its only getting started.

Homestead,paid for property,food stored,its where the smart money is at for safety while we ride out the financial re alignment thats happening.


----------



## Roadking (Oct 8, 2009)

:hijacked: Sorry for the hi-jack...
Silver certificates...
Picked up a few books the other day, and found some nice bookmarks...3 1935 blue seal $1 silver certificates. :rock:
As they state a $1 silver value, would that be a 1 dollar silver coin or 1 dollar's worth of silver weight? I've collect coins for a long time, but never got into the paper end of it. Presently, I prefer to keep them in my collection, however, if they would fetch a 1 dollar silver US coin, might keep out of the paper collecting. I will, however, keep my "horse blanket" certificates...always enjoyed them thinking about the size of the wallet one must have had to carry...LOL!
Matt


----------



## texican (Oct 4, 2003)

mightybooboo said:


> About all we agree on is nothing beats no debt and home ownership as the best spot of all for peace of mind.
> 
> I have to tell you those with a lot of faith in bank,I tried to withdraw 6G today and 'they had to order it'.... that is NOT liquidity and shows how fast your money you saved may NOT actually be available in a crunch.FDIC promises or any other promise,Banks are scary places right now.
> 
> Point being,things are VERY squirrely yet.


I'd be changing banks pronto, if they couldn't cough up 6K in a non regional/national emergency situation.


----------



## silverbackMP (Dec 4, 2005)

Ohio Rusty said:


> If silver hits $50. I'm selling everything I have. I'll put that money away in savings. When the silver bubble busts and it drops back to $5. I'll use that money and buy 10 times the amount I had and put it away. When it hits $50 again ..... Lather, rinse, repeat .....
> Ohio Rusty ><>


I wouldn't hold out for $50 or $5 if I were trading; my PM position is 100% phyiscal so I don't trade. Someone who's opinion is highly respected on another forum thinks Silver COULD go as high as $50 and drop back down to the mid $20s before the next big run up. You'll never see $5 silver again-ever (unless we get a new currency which is a possibility).


----------



## mightybooboo (Feb 10, 2004)

texican said:


> I'd be changing banks pronto, if they couldn't cough up 6K in a non regional/national emergency situation.


This is par for course,BIL can get threeG at his bank,otherwise he has to order it ON FRIDAY and they will get it Monday.

This is looking like the norm,they must not want to pay short term interest to keep money on hand is what we are guessing?

This story is common all over the web.I remember the days when you could walk in and walk out with 20G and that 20G was worth a lot more than now.

Thought it amusing I have more money in their bank than they do.And I dont like that scenario at all,Im seeing being told 'sorry,200 a day withdrawal limit' in the future,I DONT like it,not at all.And thats happened elsewhere.

But I also dont want a wad of cash sitting at home either.....time to do some thinking on this.

Edit,just talked to a Bud,he has out of area bank,his limit 800/day from ATM. I think my ATM limits at 500 cash/day.

Imagine that,8 days for him to get 6400 bucks,how inconvenient is that?????


----------



## Canning Girl (Jan 13, 2010)

So, I've been doing a lot of reading over at zerohedge to try to understand what's going on with PM's. It is the opinion of many there that Goldman Sachs, by publishing a lowered commodities forecast yesterday, has driven down the price of oil, silver, gold, etc. in the last 2 days. In addition, GS just published a revised lower forecast for copper, which many believe will soon be followed by lower forecasts for gold and silver. There is also speculation that GS is doing this to try to create deflation in advance of the end of QE2 at the end of June so that they can force Bernanke into a QE3, printing money being a hard sell in the face of commodities inflation. So, if they are correct, silver and gold may be temporarily dipping soon. How low is anyone's guess.

Thoughts?


----------



## TnAndy (Sep 15, 2005)

Roadking said:


> Silver certificates...
> Picked up a few books the other day, and found some nice bookmarks...3 1935 blue seal $1 silver certificates. :rock:
> 
> As they state a $1 silver value, would that be a 1 dollar silver coin or 1 dollar's worth of silver weight?


Neither one anymore. 

Keep them as proof "white men really DO speak with forked tongues". *That a promise by govt is easily set aside when it becomes inconvenient live up to the terms.*

Up until the mid-late 60's ( I think it was 67, but I could be off a bit ), you could take silver certificates to the US Treasury and exchange them for physical silver at the official rate of $1.29/oz. 

A cutoff day was announced, and after that, no more. I remember seeing on the nightly news people literally "backing the pickup truck up" to the Treasury and hauling off loads of silver.....and wondering "what the heck is that all about ?".....Little did I know ( as a HS kid ) that those folks were true visionaries. 

They understood that silver IS money, and that the "warehouse" receipt ( the certificate ) for their money was getting ready to be trashed.

The re-education process, which began in 1933, has now been pretty much successfully completed, as most people think paper FRN ( federal reserve notes ) are money, when, in fact, they are not.

And THAT is some of the history of how the banksters took over this country.


----------



## Gabriel (Dec 2, 2008)

mightybooboo said:


> So it makes 100,and coffee is 20 dollars for 33 oz,what difference does it make,you havent suddenly 'got rich'.


Do you have a chart for how fast food is going up? Serious question, I'd like to see it. My point, which I didn't take the time to be clear about, is that while the price of commodities such as PM's and food do tend to follow a generally parallel rise, there are bubbles in that rise. When the sheeple eventually realize what's happening to the dollar, what do you think they'll buy first? Food, or silver? IMO, most people aren't smart enough to realize how fragile the delivery system is and the first thing they'll think of is protecting their already ravaged 401k. This will create a bubble, making it time to sell PM's and get into some other tangible commodity. 

I'd still like to see you, or anyone else, prove that the current price of PM's is an unsupportable bubble. 



> Metal isnt going up much,the dollar IS collapsing...


Again, my problem with your statement is not with the fundamentals, it's with the details. Even if the chart of FRN value to PM value was a mirror image, it doesn't matter because PM's, silver especially, have gone up more this year than most other commodities. I don't give but a passing thought to the value of FRN's. Starting last year I began pricing everything in terms of real value, such as "do I want this item more than I want 1oz of silver, or 1.5 bricks of .22lr, etc?". So the value of FRN's is irrelevant, I'm looking for commodities that will outpace the others. 



> Its being re valued right now.Go grocery shopping.


No, it's being *D*evalued. That makes the price of silver go up, not down to the named figure of $5. 



Canning Girl said:


> So, I've been doing a lot of reading over at zerohedge to try to understand what's going on with PM's. It is the opinion of many there that Goldman Sachs, by publishing a lowered commodities forecast yesterday, has driven down the price of oil, silver, gold, etc. in the last 2 days. In addition, GS just published a revised lower forecast for copper, which many believe will soon be followed by lower forecasts for gold and silver. There is also speculation that GS is doing this to try to create deflation in advance of the end of QE2 at the end of June so that they can force Bernanke into a QE3, printing money being a hard sell in the face of commodities inflation. So, if they are correct, silver and gold may be temporarily dipping soon. How low is anyone's guess.
> 
> Thoughts?


I think they're correct. Casey Research is saying basically the same thing. Major policy shift ahead. I believe we'll see (more) market/policy manipulation designed to favor the big players (surprise!) and my question is... how can I make money from it? Maybe increasing wealth isn't the primary focus of prepping on this forum, but it is a prep' in my opinion, and I don't see why we should pass up such a _golden_ :grin: opportunity.


----------



## silverbackMP (Dec 4, 2005)

I don't believe I read where booboo thinks PMs are currently in a bubble.


----------



## Gabriel (Dec 2, 2008)

silverbackMP said:


> I don't believe I read where booboo thinks PMs are currently in a bubble.


I asked that question, booboo responded to the post. Please note that the question was addressed to Ohio Rusty, who used the word "bubble". Booboo having responded made me wonder if (s)he also thought silver was bubblish. 

It seems I've ruffled some feathers, but I want to be clear, that was never my intention. I do not hang out here, or anywhere else, looking for a pat on the back. Mutual congratulation societies hold no appeal, I want to be challenged on what I believe so that I may grow from it. No offense was meant to anyone.


----------



## Ernie (Jul 22, 2007)

Gabriel, sometimes we attack what we think the speaker is saying, not what they are actually saying, and that false belief is built upon a hundred previous arguments thrown up against us. 

You will find plenty of challenge for your beliefs here, as I have. Bring a thick skin though for the growing opportunities are often abundant.


----------



## mightybooboo (Feb 10, 2004)

Clarification,Boo (he) thinks silver is *heading* to bubble and risky to *buy in* at *THIS* time,hold physical,unload metal stocks and lock in profits.

Well coffee is up 40% since sept,fuel up 25-30% same time period,sugar up.....would have to check records on others but higher prices and smaller servings are all over the place. So yes,food inflation VERY real.

Gabriel,no offense taken by anyone,we are just sharing our opinions to benefit from groupthink is all.So post away Bud!

Part of why silver is up MORE than dollar deflation is the successful decade plus manipulation in keeping price down,huge money was made in shorting (against TREMENDOUS odds in a truly market driven economy) and they DONT want anything challenging FRN in the sheeples minds is my take. Now that the low price manipulation is being taken out I feel silver is a lot closer NOW to what its true value should be,and should have been decade past.


----------



## mightybooboo (Feb 10, 2004)

Canning Girl said:


> So, I've been doing a lot of reading over at zerohedge to try to understand what's going on with PM's. It is the opinion of many there that Goldman Sachs, by publishing a lowered commodities forecast yesterday, has driven down the price of oil, silver, gold, etc. in the last 2 days. In addition, GS just published a revised lower forecast for copper, which many believe will soon be followed by lower forecasts for gold and silver. There is also speculation that GS is doing this to try to create deflation in advance of the end of QE2 at the end of June so that they can force Bernanke into a QE3, printing money being a hard sell in the face of commodities inflation. So, if they are correct, silver and gold may be temporarily dipping soon. How low is anyone's guess.
> 
> Thoughts?


100% correct IMO,GS are masters at manipulating the short play.Then the metals move up the next step.Question I have is what the limit is,I just cant say with confidence on MY part.

I think Gold is a safer buy in RIGHT NOW than silver.


----------



## mightybooboo (Feb 10, 2004)

Canning Girl said:


> It is the opinion of many there that Goldman Sachs, by publishing a lowered commodities forecast yesterday, has driven down the price of oil, silver, gold, etc. in the last 2 days.
> Thoughts?


Yep,all that is is PUBLISHING the order on how the insiders with the BILLIONS to play with are to schedule the trades (using OUR 401k,IRA monies!!) to make the short pay. Talk about inside trading and IN YOUR FACE at the same time,AMAZING!!!!

But then again there is NO denying our fiscal policy is set by GS execs going thru the revolving door of the govs monetary system,its FULLY gamed by GS.


----------



## bee (May 12, 2002)

:yuck: OK!!! Alla yous with the big words and lots of 'splainin....question to answer in small clear words.

Is NOW the time to buy, sell or hold physical silver?(your mileage may vary; read the small print...)

Markets and manipulations are beyond me. I need another!!

Re my question; IF you had the cash and knew the answer you would not need the people lining up to pay for your insight!:thumb:

I think I'm gonna get that small paddock fenced and shed built for that couple milk goats I have been hankering after....


----------



## mightybooboo (Feb 10, 2004)

food inflation link from LDS thread

[ame]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wWig8MsIPbM[/ame]


----------



## mightybooboo (Feb 10, 2004)

HOLD physical silver is as far as Im certain in my mind.


----------



## Canning Girl (Jan 13, 2010)

I agree with mightybooboo. From what I understand of the market manipulation by GS, I am holding and will buy again if the price dips enough. (Enough being a relative term, of course.)


----------



## bee (May 12, 2002)

FANTABULUS!!! A four letter word!! HOLD...actually my thoughts prezactly.

In fact, I am watching a sale on E-bay that the seller does not seem to know what they have and may(or may not) be an excellent buy...last deal like that I jumped on got 300% value for price paid. This one won't go that good unless I buy, HOLD and the market climbs some...(HEH, yes I know you can't actually MAKE money unless you SELL higher than you buy...)


----------



## Blu3duk (Jun 2, 2002)

Bee,

ifin ou have the cash to build and the need to have some thing built, now is the time to get it done, for the cost of cheaper building materials is on the rise due to the Japan earthshake and inflation along with it.... dont buy silver if you have other things that are needing to be fixed up, bought outright, or replaced. Au, Ag, Pt , Rh, Pd will all hold value, but you should not hold them at the expense of not having what you need done accomplished, as they wint go up enough in value to make much difference to do anymore in a year or three or five for that matter...... they have out preformed all savings accounts the last 10 years or better, but there were several factors at play that caused that.

there are many reasons to hold metals of any type, I cry a little bit everytime i see someone haul off a load of scrap metal to the scrap yard and know it is heading to China to perhaps come back our way in the form of bombs, and other war items one day..... not sayihg its gonna happen, just saying that history repeats itself and thats hat happened before WW2 iron went to Japan then. But building and improving your homestead operation is just as important as holding metals for long term, cause sooner or later someone will show up on yer doorstoop and ask to trade some silver coins for some food you are growing. Prep according to your lifestyle and dont let "emotion" of the moment seeing that metals are rising and want to jump in on it and not be "left out" trading on emotion gets many folks in trouble.... and back in 1980, got my cousin to purchase a 40 ounce bar at a cost of over $40.00 per ounce and he has held it all this time as a reminder that "passion" has no place in trading, at the same time another cousin [both 10 years older than me] bought junk silver that was better than most junk silver one finds today and got into numismatics to get most of his investment back out, which is another reason i got into numismatics, learning and knowing that collectible coins have a little better market stability being insulated from the big players moving tons of metal moving the market in big ways.

William
Idaho



William
Idaho


----------



## bee (May 12, 2002)

Thank you William...I have things in pretty good shape around here right now..I have perhaps too many birds(poultry) but don't have the milk end covered. I had goats once before and this time plan to PLAN it out better..not jump on a seemingly unpassable offer(like last time). I am doing my homework. Not to worry I won't get to far over my head on the PM's.....YOUR "vice of choice" is collectable coins...mine is solid silver bangle bracelets.

Your advice about the building materials is a sound one, thanks! bee


----------



## Gabriel (Dec 2, 2008)

William, excellent post. Far too many people think they can hold money, in whatever form that may be, and simply continue to buy anything that they'll need in a WCS. (World Changing Scenario.)

Ernie, my skin is pretty thick, but thank you for the advice. I was simply trying to ensure that my attitude stays where it needs to be. I _try_ to always ask myself: "would I say that to someone's face?" and if not, I clarify. 

Boo, we're in agreement then. Well, probably... with my limited internet I can't watch videos, so while I'd love to see the youtube you linked, I'll have to take your word on it. 



> FANTABULUS!!! A four letter word!! HOLD


There's certainly worse options. However, a better one might be to swap silver for gold later this month, then when the probable price drop occurs swap back. That's as close to a risk free play as I can think of.


----------



## sticky_burr (Dec 10, 2010)

well right now is the time to get out of PM as there is a boom created by those who cannot drive the real estate prices up to make money. you really shouldnt feed the hysteria surrounding the PM markets. silver was historically reasonable when gold went insane. 
imo best to take cash out of the hysteria and into a historically stable currency.i am thinking swiss franc and possibly the iceland krona(energy independant). until the gold market bursts then revest


----------



## Dutch 106 (Feb 12, 2008)

Hi Guys,
Well to answer Cabin Fever's original question. Not when you think you have enough! 
Dutch


----------



## Cabin Fever (May 10, 2002)

Dutch 106 said:


> Hi Guys,
> Well to answer Cabin Fever's original question. Not when you think you have enough!
> Dutch


I've forgotten what my question was, I'll have to go back and find out!


----------



## Betho (Dec 27, 2006)

Generally speaking I would say no. Having said that, there may be something that comes up where it would be more financially responsible to actually have a hard asset. For instance, if you have a mortgage and you've invested in silver at $15/oz. If that silver hits $150/oz, you may end up with enough to pay off your mortgage. I'd trade it in to pay off my mortgage in a heartbeat! Or even on a smaller scale. I need a dehydrator but cash is super tight right now. Having said that, if I happen to come across a deal on a good (not the Ronco) dehydrator I will cash in silver if that's what it takes to get that piece of equipment. That piece of equipment will really come in handy come summertime, what with 20 fruit trees on this property.

So I'd say generally I wouldn't use mine, but I wouldn't be opposed to cashing in a little or even a lot if it made a huge change in my circumstance. If someone is a renter and they invested in silver over the years... that silver might hit a price where they could use it to buy land free and clear. Might be something to consider. Not sure if I'd ever clear it all out entirely, but I wouldn't be opposed to cashing it in under the right circumstance.


----------



## Betho (Dec 27, 2006)

mightybooboo said:


> This is par for course,BIL can get threeG at his bank,otherwise he has to order it ON FRIDAY and they will get it Monday.
> 
> This is looking like the norm,they must not want to pay short term interest to keep money on hand is what we are guessing?
> 
> ...


That's really bizarre, I don't know of any banks that are like that. I worked at a credit union for years and we never had limitations like that, though if someone wanted $20k they might ask them to wait a day or so. We had ATM withdrawal limits, but those could easily be bumped up with a phone call since they were only in place to limit fraud if the card was compromised. I myself had raised people's ATM withdrawal limits over $10k and authorized debit transactions for $40k+ (mostly car purchases). Of course, like I said, our limits were only in place to limit fraud if the card was compromised.


----------



## tab (Aug 20, 2002)

Intersting info here. Lots of my questions have been answered as I have been reading over at Zero Hedge, too. I like the way CF originally framed holding pm's. Could not phrase it that clearly to dh. William, excellent point about building materials and scrap metal. Yes, thanks to all for the thoughts.


----------



## Gabriel (Dec 2, 2008)

sticky_burr said:


> well right now is the time to get out of PM as there is a boom created by those who cannot drive the real estate prices up to make money. you really shouldnt feed the hysteria surrounding the PM markets. silver was historically reasonable when gold went insane.
> imo best to take cash out of the hysteria and into a historically stable currency.i am thinking swiss franc and possibly the iceland krona(energy independant). until the gold market bursts then revest


Boom? Hysteria? Insane? Are you saying it's all a bubble? 

Are you also saying that paper money with no backing except a government promise should be trusted?


----------



## TnAndy (Sep 15, 2005)

Here's what a bubble looks like:










When that vertical line turns around and drops straight down, it's time to get rid of gold and silver.

As long as it keeps going vertical, gold and silver will climb in price by double digit percentages year over year.


----------



## seedspreader (Oct 18, 2004)

sticky_burr said:


> well right now is the time to get out of PM as there is a boom created by those who cannot drive the real estate prices up to make money. you really shouldnt feed the hysteria surrounding the PM markets. silver was historically reasonable when gold went insane.
> imo best to take cash out of the hysteria and into a historically stable currency.i am thinking swiss franc and possibly the iceland krona(energy independant). until the gold market bursts then revest


Are you joking?

The Iceland Krona???

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Icelandic_króna



> The 2008/2009 financial crisis prompted further calls for Iceland to join the eurozone. In January 2009, one senior Icelandic official stated that due to the crisis "the krona is dead. We need a new currency. The only serious option is the euro."[17] In March 2009, a report by Iceland's Minister for Foreign Affairs, Ãssur SkarphÃ©dinsson, considered three options: retaining the krona, adopting the euro without joining the EU and adopting the euro through EU membership. The report recommended the third option.[18]
> 
> An economic study of the impact of the adoption of the euro by Iceland found that "the Icelandic krona acts as a barrier to international trade, and that by joining the EU and adopting the euro, Icelandic trade could increase by 60%".[19]
> 
> In July 2009, the AlÃ¾ingi narrowly voted to apply for EU membership (see Accession of Iceland to the European Union).


----------



## mightybooboo (Feb 10, 2004)

Yes Betho,very interesting whats going on recently at Banks,I'd like to hear others' recent experiences withdrawing cash.

I find it scary on several levels this limit business.


----------



## mightybooboo (Feb 10, 2004)

TnAndy said:


> Here's what a bubble looks like:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


How do you explain the market crash in 2008 and the metal crash that went with it? That DID happen.

Not that you could actually buy REAL silver at those prices since REAL WORLD nobody was unloading at those prices no matter what the 'market' fixed price was.I know,i tried to buy,wasnt happening.


----------



## TnAndy (Sep 15, 2005)

You kinda answered your own question, there MBB. 

Owners of paper silver ( and gold ) dumped it in a short term panic to cover paper losses in other areas, meet margin requirements, and run to what was still perceived as safety.....the US buck.

However, the spot price and the REAL price didn't have a lot to do with each other, as dealers realized spot price was a short term issue, and they had no intention of taking a beating on it.....as you and anybody else trying to buy actual physical metal found out. They either sold at spot + a huge premium, or they were "out of inventory".....meaning they were sitting on it, waiting for the price to go back up.

My guess is had the financial panic continued for a period of time, people would have realized how precarious their positions in the paper dollar were ( money market funds ALSO 'broke the buck'...went under a dollar per share ), and the flow back to metals would have been a tsunami. I honestly think after it was over, this is part of what caused the current rise in metals.....people took stock in what happened, and realized that TRUE safety did not lie in an ocean of paper, but in a tiny island of real money....and have been sliding into it ever since.

You see this also not just in metals, but in all commodities across the board. Investors understand you can print all the paper you want, issue all the shares in a company you want, but there are limits to the amount of gold that gets dug or the amount of corn raised, and so on.

And clearly, in some areas, demand is going to outstrip supply, so they will raise even faster than inflation. 

For example, if you divert 30% of the US corn crop into fuel alcohol, then the cost of beef will rise because feed will cost more due to less corn being available. 

If China exported 100 million ounces of silver in 2005, and turned to a 100m oz IMPORTER as of last year in a market that mines 800m/yr, there is obviously going to be less supply for the rest of the world when they take 1/4 of it.


----------



## Ross (May 9, 2002)

I agree with Cabin's OP it is what it is, and so long as its doing its job you shouldn't sell it. I'd buy silver today and it wouldn't bother me if the price fell tomorrow. I bought gasoline last week for more than I did this , and while its fun to grumble it will still move the truck where it has to go. I do not have anywhere near enough silver (and its always been the PM of choice for me) and if I had spare cash today I'd buy more today. If I was looking to invest $500+ I'd buy shares in rail transport companies.


----------



## silverbackMP (Dec 4, 2005)

As I have a loan on my farm land, I will sell at some point. Debters are king in a inflationary environment (I wish it weren't so) since each unit of currency is worth less and less over time. 

Thats why deflation scares the heck out of the Treasury and Fed when 90% of Americans and the .gov are underwater. Savers are King during deflation as their units of currency become worth more in goods and services. 

I doubt I will ever sell 90%, silver eagles, or silver maples, but the bulk (not all) of the gold and all of the generic silver will get sold to pay off the land when the time is right.


----------



## silverbackMP (Dec 4, 2005)

TnAndy said:


> You kinda answered your own question, there MBB.
> 
> Owners of paper silver ( and gold ) dumped it in a short term panic to cover paper losses in other areas, meet margin requirements, and run to what was still perceived as safety.....the US buck.


I wander if the same thing will happen this summer; I think the markets will nose dive. I wonder if they flood back into Treasuries this time around--at some point they will not continue to view Treasuries as safe. Just wonder when that point will be reached.


----------



## machinist (Aug 3, 2010)

I read somewhere that the Fed is buying as much as 70% of new Treasury issuance? If so, then the market for US T's isn't so good right now. That would mean that we aren't too far from a day of reckoning on the dollar, right?

In spite of that, I still have butterflies about holding silver right now, since the .gov is apt to intervene just to make the fiat $$ look better, no? They have already jacked up margin requirements to shake out the"weak hands".


----------



## kirkmcquest (Oct 21, 2010)

Gabriel said:


> .
> 
> 
> 
> I think they're correct. Casey Research is saying basically the same thing. Major policy shift ahead. I believe we'll see (more) market/policy manipulation designed to favor the big players (surprise!) and my question is... how can I make money from it? Maybe increasing wealth isn't the primary focus of prepping on this forum, but it is a prep' in my opinion, and I don't see why we should pass up such a _golden_ :grin: opportunity.


Thanks for the link

The article made some great points but there are some things that don't compute;

The guy being interviewed expects QE2 to end in june ( at least temporarily ). He expects the result to be a temporary boost to the dollar, bringing down the price of commodities. He also predicts a stock market tumble to naturally accompany the drop in prices that comes along with a strong dollar.

With a stock market tumble, money will run into the bond market...but with the Fed not buying treasuries the demand for bonds should drop...(I guess I'm trying to use his scenario to calculate the result on the bond market.)

Traditionally, when the stock market goes up the bond market goes down and vice versa...so with the feds ceasing QE2 the stock market will drop. One would expect the bond market to rise, but without the artificial demand being created by QE2, and the accompanied suppression of interest rates...the bond market might not rise unless the market demand is strong enough to fill in for QE2. Can anyone add insight to this?


----------



## machinist (Aug 3, 2010)

kirkmcquest,

That all sounds right to me, for the variables given. What bothers me is what variables are there that we don't know about? I don't mean only the unexpected events possible, but the back door deals between countries, major bank plays and such as that. We are all at the mercy of those things, thus my conservatism. Who would have thunk that somebody would buy a MILLION $ in silver options to drive down the price a few days ago?

China in particular has been very critical of US dollar devaluation, since they have a boatload of T's. I think the Fed is jawboning again, WRT QE, hoping it will calm foreign bondholders by saying they will end QE. The Fed IS famous for jawboning, after all. But there is no way to know for certain who is bluffing and how much in this poker game. Not my cup of tea!

The fundamental situation for the US is heavily weighted at NO real spending cuts, and thus more deficits, IMHO. There are only so many bond buyers out there, and that number is dwindling, so that says that the Fed will have to eat the new US debt. But maybe not right away. Can't wait too long, though, lest we have a Treasury auction failure, right? Looks to me like the Fed.gov is firmly stuck in a corner: either stop QE and cut spending which nosedives the economy, or, continue spending and QE and let it all go Weimar. They will drag it out as long as possible. I can't tell what else the Fed could have in their bag of tricks, but it looks to me like they are about out of bullets. Of course, I thought that a couple years ago when I bought into silver.... 

When it comes to investment calls, I make a better machinist.


----------



## TnAndy (Sep 15, 2005)

machinist said:


> kirkmcquest,
> 
> Of course, I thought that a couple years ago when I bought into silver....
> 
> When it comes to investment calls, I make a better machinist.


Hey.....why are you knocking yourself ? If you bought a couple years ago, it was surely under 20.......my last buy was July,2009, and I paid under 15 for some rounds from APMEX with an order from my BIL to get him started in silver.

So you're at LEAST double in two years....which takes about a 30+% rate of return to do. Maybe you ought to turn the machines off, and go to work for CNBC.....cause I guarantee ya THEY ain't that good !


----------



## machinist (Aug 3, 2010)

TnAndy,

Yeah, I've made a great gain. Bought at $13 spot, and after the haircuts and taxes, I am a little over double right now. But getting lucky once in my life doesn't make me an expert! That's why I'm so nervous now, not having a good basis for sell vs hold at the moment. I read Chris Martenson, Tickerforum, Zerohedge, Jesse's Cafe, SHTF.com, and all the other usual suspects in this field, but you can find someone to make a case for anything in investing. It was the silver/gold price ratio being so high that convinced me to buy back then, along with suspicions of downward price manipulation. I bought junk coins, and probably paid too much for them, too, from Northwest Territorial Mint. (I paid about 11.6 to one with spot at $13.) After enduring their 3 MONTH delivery, I decided I would never deal with them again. Maybe I was lucky to get the stuff at all? Anyway, I wouldn't go back there. I've been scared spitless ever since I bought in, and it's getting worse now. Never gambled before this in my life, and don't ever intend to again. But with our retirement savings in 401K's, money market funds, and such, we had to do something before the whole works went south.

I wouldn't begin to play this game now, except that if I don't do SOMETHING to hedge against inflation, I lose big time. Nuthin' nice to say about those who made it this way, either.  All I want to do is CYA, and that ain't easy now. 

I'm too old and too tired to think about making a lot of money the hard way, and being retired, I can't afford to lose a pile. I can foresee having to go back to work, just because of inflation even though we have done everything we can to protect against it. This sucks, big time. 

If I can find ANYTHING else to hedge inflation that is sorta liquid, I'll drop the silver like a hot rock.


----------



## TnAndy (Sep 15, 2005)

I understand buddy. Let me know what you find that looks better, and I might join you. 

I just don't see anything out there for me, with the exception of maybe a new tractor I really don't need, but when it hits 100/oz, I may part with a couple hundred ounces and splurge.

I bought mine mainly to have real money to make sure I never lost the farm to property taxes. 

Right now, the property taxes could be paid thru about 2 generations, and we have no kids, so I think I'm OK......ahahahaaaaaa

Oh yeah...silver up another buck/half today, in case anybody's interested. Bolivia is talking like they intend to nationalize private mines come 1 May, which is I suspect is part of today's "buy on the rumor".


----------



## rhome (Aug 10, 2006)

Junk silver bought at $4 per oz. $100 face bags.
Got this silver for several reasons, but mostly to cash in for future property taxes.
Hopefully our income in the future will provide enough to cover taxes.
Here's the kicker for us...if we can't find a buyer for silver in a severe senario then we all have bigger concerns than paying taxes.
good luck


----------



## silverbackMP (Dec 4, 2005)

machinist said:


> . Can't wait too long, though, lest we have a Treasury auction failure, right?


Maybe they will wheel out the "Carribean Banks" again. Right before the Fed started directly buying treasuries, a bunch of Carribean Banks were the primary purcharsers at the treasury auctions, which looked a little suspicious to those who follow such things. I'm sure TN Andy remembers this.


----------



## silverbackMP (Dec 4, 2005)

machinist said:


> TnAndy,
> 
> I bought junk coins, and probably paid too much for them, too, from Northwest Territorial Mint. (I paid about 11.6 to one with spot at $13.) After enduring their 3 MONTH delivery, I decided I would never deal with them again. Maybe I was lucky to get the stuff at all? Anyway, I wouldn't go back there.


Most of the Gold Bugs suspect NWTM of being semi ponzi--in otherwords, (and I can't prove this) they may have been caught on the wrong side of a short position and are using current income to pay for past costumer purchases. Again, that is an assumption/guess by some minds that are smarter than mine.


----------



## TnAndy (Sep 15, 2005)

I think it was check kiting....pretty sure I remember the Attorney general of a State up there suing them about using customer money to float their business. There used to be a long thread back on the old GIM board of disgruntled customers, but the owner of NWTM threatened legal action, and it got removed. I don't remember anyone getting beat out of their silver, but the times it took to get it, and the constant being lied to in communications sure got old.


----------



## TnAndy (Sep 15, 2005)

silverbackMP said:


> Maybe they will wheel out the "Carribean Banks" again. Right before the Fed started directly buying treasuries, a bunch of Carribean Banks were the primary purcharsers at the treasury auctions, which looked a little suspicious to those who follow such things. I'm sure TN Andy remembers this.


Yep. Those mystery banks are still #6 on the list of "who hold Treausry debt". I've said all along they are a front for FED money laundering, but can't prove it.

Want to see WHO holds our debt ?

*GO HERE*


----------



## mightybooboo (Feb 10, 2004)

machinist said:


> kirkmcquest,
> 
> Who would have thunk that somebody would buy a MILLION $ in silver options to drive down the price a few days ago?


Its been manipulated for a long long time now and they will cont to do so,no that doesnt surprise me at all.

How is it GS ALWAYS wins on their short plays? Something is seriously gamed. I mean,the price conts to go up,yet GS always wins as the price is down when their shorts come due.

We just need our own lying eyes to see the entire market/dow is completely rigged.


----------



## mightybooboo (Feb 10, 2004)

TnAndy said:


> Hey.....why are you knocking yourself ? If you bought a couple years ago, it was surely under 20.......my last buy was July,2009, and I paid under 15 for some rounds from APMEX with an order from my BIL to get him started in silver.


Much my point.When youre in the 5,10,and 15 dollar silver group its a lot easier to be a bull.

40 dollar bulls need 80 just for a double,the 10 dollar group has already had a 4 bagger.

Im not buying at 25-30 or 40,neither are you.At that point if I wont put my money where my mouth is I cant tell others they should.I just cant see them making out like the 3 years ago buyers did,and those with stars in their eyes over the past gains,expecting much the same...... wont see them,the boat left that dock.....in 2008 and earlier.

For todays 'investor',160 for a 4 bagger,I dont see that.Unless we inflate to the moon and thats surely in the cards MOST likely IMO.
What we saw after we inflated away the Viet Nam war debt,history repeats to a large degree,all that isnt figured in the inflation play is a further collapse where even 1929 looks like a walk in the park. At that point,and add in our good paying middle class jobs are gone for good.....who knows what will happen,we might have no food or power at any price.


----------



## Roadking (Oct 8, 2009)

Well, it's at $42.55 as of 8:15 thia morning...I'm not buying OR selling. It is more of a comfort thing for us, plus, the kiddos realy enjoy collecting. Can't wait for garage sale and flea market season...usually get some real bargains.
Matt


----------



## silverbackMP (Dec 4, 2005)

I'm personally hoping for a heck of a pullback. I loaded up in the $7-10 range but had to sell (and I knew it was going higher) at about $13 for some farm land I wanted. I had to buy the land because my yet to exist grandson (got have the son first) may have been the next purchaser; farm land is usually multigenerational where I come from. I've bought some since but would like to get more; I'm not buying AG at these levels. I am still buying AU because I think the downside is limited ($1250?).


----------



## TnAndy (Sep 15, 2005)

You are correct, MBB, in that anyone going into silver today probably WON'T get the gains of folks that got in earlier.....my average in is about 6.50/oz. I saw where this was going early on, set myself a goal of so many ounces, and once I reached that, am pretty much content to let it ride. Now any extra funds I find myself with, I pour into "fun" projects like solar power, or expanding food production capabilities, and that type thing.

But consider the person with an extra 10k...( or 100k ).....what do they do ?

Let's assume they have pretty much taken care of the basic "beans, bullets, and bandaids" and have no debt to pay off, and so on. This is simply extra saved money that must be parked SOME where for a time down the road when they might need it.

Stick it in the bank at 1-2%, while inflation is running 5-8% ( or more ). ? Five years down the road, they have maybe 11-12k in pieces of paper, and an ACTUAL purchasing power of maybe 7k, if you're wildly optimistic about the paper dollar.

OR they bought silver, it only goes to 60 bucks in five years ( which I think is wildly pessimistic ), and they are at least even with inflation, and probably a bit ahead.

Given those 2 choices, and I think there ARE a fair number of people in that boat, which route would you advise ?

I don't think I've ever said to anyone "run out and buy silver". I have tried to make the case for where I think silver is going, and why, but when it comes down to how any particular person should spend their funds, that is very personal, and unless they just flat ASK: "Given my circumstances, should I do this or that ? ", I refrain from saying.

I actually think there are lot of people "investing" in a lot of things they shouldn't be.....some kid on another board said this morning "I'm 22, just out of college and have 1,000 to invest....should I buy silver or open an account at Etrade to trade stocks, or what ?"......and my comment was "if that's all you have between you and being broke, stick it in a cookie jar in case the transmission in your car falls out in the road next week" The kid has NO business "investing" in much of anything at this point in life.

But he, like everyone, has to decide what is best for themselves. I know silver has been good to me so far, and I expect it will be spectacular before it's all over, and I DO feel there is still time to get on the train IF that is appropriate for where one is in life right now.


----------



## Blu3duk (Jun 2, 2002)

TnAnndy is spot on, i believe that unless someone is asking a direct question it is not wise to just blurt out and tell them what to did, and the great thing about a forum **** this witht the opening question of "would ya sell at anytime" or close to that anyway. 

Ive been watching the day traders and i know how its done, i which stocks to buy and when to to sell and yet i aint playing that game nor am i gonna, because its addicting like any other "drug" maybe it should be banned!!! ok maybe not. "If i wanna big gamble with dollars, i will rent a chunk of farm ground and plant a crop......

Ive said it before never let your EMOTIONS dictate you jumping in to what seems like a great deal you've been left out on. Anther thing ive said and i will stick to it is that while i believe silver will rise to between 45 and 60.00 US, i still believe its gonna take a set back, though i wasnt counting on another Bolvian revolution coming into play and Courd A lene Mines not being able to open up that nice new mine up yet again. must be a George Soros play happening in south america..... getting rid of the western way of life ok off the soap box.


I will still trade the placer gold i find in the river for silver coin after paying the bills and such, just cause its still a better metal to have in the long run i believe, easier to break down and trade with locally than the gold is or will be..... and yes i have folks who buy my placer for spot price even though it is way less than .9999, but if i had to i could refine it to .995+ fairly easy and for that i need silver shot..... industry again.... and commerce.
William
idaho
Digg It Prospecting Supply


----------



## mightybooboo (Feb 10, 2004)

Yeah Andy pretty much 100% in the same boat thinking.

If I was to give buying advice for someone in the EXCESS cash group between the metals I think gold is the better place for safety.I dont trust meteoric rises.Gold isnt doing that so feel better about it.

I know groceries have a great payback on stocking right now,40% on coffee just in 7 months.25% up on the link to the youtube lady on LDS prices on average.

Im not into I need a warehouse of goods,but we have to eat.Right now its a short term investment with real good percentage in your pocket and DANG,its ONLY going up and will be for quite some time until a deflationary COLLAPSE and I dont see that in the cards at all,TPTB need inflation,they call the shots so I see the the INFLATIONARY collapse and the inflation will be in basics that what we need to survive period.Land and others,housing,they can and will continue to deflate for a while.They arent essentials to move up or get the extra land,food is.

My thinking is the middle class has been so hammered that just getting food and heat will take everything most people have in income,and its a world competition for food,its only a local game for house/land right now.

So for a safe investment re: inflation,the pantry looks like a good possibility.IMO,you have to eat so its applicable to anyone not living paycheck to paycheck with zero extra cash.So Im missing out partly on the metal game,still in it,and now Im doing real well in the food game.Gotta play the trends and safety is my thinking.


----------



## mightybooboo (Feb 10, 2004)

Blu,you are right,you can discus finances here, you have cooperation,not chest thumping .Just opinions and why,thats helpful.Unlike the hate board.


----------



## silverbackMP (Dec 4, 2005)

Silver in 2008 or 2009 went to around $21-23ish and fell back down to about $13ish after one of these parabolic moves. I'm going off complete memory here and am too lazy to check a chart so I may be slightly off on the timeframe and exact dollar amounts.


----------



## DryHeat (Nov 11, 2010)

Got me curious so I looked up the charts; close: in 2008 silver went to around 20 for a month that spring then dropped to 9-10 that Nov-Dec. Both of those extremes held for a couple of weeks or more, they weren't one or two day transient peaks and/or dips. Any position bought in Oct-Dec 2008 would be worth 3.5-4 times as much right now, if anyone wanted to look for perfect market timing on the buy side. But there's the rub, eh? When to sell, if you're trading.


----------



## machinist (Aug 3, 2010)

Looks like I will be selling silver and buying steel for my repair shop to re-open.

Quote:
"Steelmakers have increased prices six times, for a total increase of 20% to 30%, since November on basic flat-rolled steel, used in everything from cars to toasters, to offset higher input costs of raw materials, such as iron ore and coal. Higher costs for steel, which are expected to continue well into this year, are hitting bottom lines of companies and prompting additional price increases." Link: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704775604576120382801078352.html

Dollar going down, silver is up, steel just started up and no end in sight. Owning steel doesn't have the twenty eight % "Collectibles Tax" on gains. Of course, it isn't for everyone, but in my case, it could work. I can retail the stuff, plus use it for daily business, so it is more or less liquid in my case. 

The non-ferrous metals are volatile, and not such a good deal now, having gone up on speculative plays over the past year, particularly copper. 
Link: http://www.metalprices.com/

I want OUT of silver, and this is the best I've come up with so far. Next in line is to stock up on bolts and nuts, and other hardware. That isn't such a good deal, but necessary for me and required that I have some on hand. I've had some sticker shock on hardware prices lately, so it is time that I got back into that market before it goes completely "nuts", pun intended. 

I will also use some silver profits to stock up on soft commodities when I can get a deal--wheat, corn, feed supplements and bulk rolled oats for home use. This is really simply taking out PM profits for fill out basic preps for us.

The silver has got to go. Yes, I do think there is some more meat on the silver bone, but what I'm looking at is the relative gains to be had, comparing silver gains to the cost increases in my ongoing needs. I may be a bit early, but better early than late. As someone said, nobody ever lost money taking a profit.


----------



## Canning Girl (Jan 13, 2010)

FWIW, my husband is in a business that uses steel and they have raised prices several times lately, but they think that prices have about topped out for now and are not raising prices any further. Not advice, just information.


----------



## machinist (Aug 3, 2010)

Canning Girl, 

Thanks! That sounds right to me. Sales are probably slowing and holding prices steady. That's okay, I'm looking at a year or two timeframe. 

Other factors in my decision to sell some silver are, A) The Fed may hold off on more QE for a while and , B) Options Expiration is coming up for silver futures when it typically drops a little and, C) The big players often pull some tricks around OP EX to drive down the price. So, for the short term, we could see a price dip over the next couple weeks. 

Overall, I think it would behoove anyone to have something good to do with the money before selling out of silver at the moment, lest you lose to further devaluation of the $$. I agree with those who advocate to own preps first, them PM's. 

The final priority for me is to have some cash or something nearly as liquid as cash on hand for emergencies. That is the really tough nut to crack without losing to $ devaluation/inflation.


----------



## bee (May 12, 2002)

This is one of those times when being in a lower tax bracket(read poor) is a benifit. If I had silver to sell and did, my Collectables Tax is only 15% the same as my Federal Tax.

However, I have to wonder just how much PMs change hands without taxes being paid? I mean unless you are doing this transaction thru brokers or metals companies where would be the electronic or paper trail? I also wonder just what level of transactions would attract gov notice?


----------



## mightybooboo (Feb 10, 2004)

So,Im thinking groceries and what do I hear on Coast to Coast last night,some guy like Steve Shreck?,something like that say food has been out pacing silver and gold lately.

Then I see Machinests' and Canning Girls' comments about steel and I think they are offering up some super options on where to reinvest their cash in something they use.

So now my question,where are we at in home building supplies,nails,plywood,2x4,etc. Have they started moving?

We sure ARE seeing the inflation moves now,thats looking like the trend to be our next big concern and need to be looking at opportunity on that front apparently.

Cant beat em,join em,thats how I play it,follow what the big dogs are doing....we dont get in quite as early,or get out at the very peaks,but we CAN ride the coat tails of the manipulators and make the profitable moves too.

Excellent thread drift,this is getting into some really good area!


----------



## mightybooboo (Feb 10, 2004)

I really like your plan machinest,your mobile and you arent marrying metal,too many folks marry their stocks/investments and watch their profits disappear because of an emotional attachment.

I have only one stock that is a lifetime hold and its Coca Cola,its rises consistently,pays a dividend,and paid a dividend thru the great depression.ANYBODY can buy a Coke pretty much no matter what the economy does.

Asking when do you sell? Well if youre selling at a profit,thats always a good sell point.Always. Because thats the name of the game after all is said and done in investing. Then move to the next trend.


----------



## mightybooboo (Feb 10, 2004)

bee said:


> This is one of those times when being in a lower tax bracket(read poor) is a benifit. If I had silver to sell and did, my Collectables Tax is only 15% the same as my Federal Tax.


Correct me if Im wrong,I thought it was 28% period if you declare it.


----------



## mightybooboo (Feb 10, 2004)

DryHeat said:


> Got me curious so I looked up the charts; close: in 2008 silver went to around 20 for a month that spring then dropped to 9-10 that Nov-Dec. Both of those extremes held for a couple of weeks or more, they weren't one or two day transient peaks and/or dips. Any position bought in Oct-Dec 2008 would be worth 3.5-4 times as much right now, if anyone wanted to look for perfect market timing on the buy side. But there's the rub, eh? When to sell, if you're trading.


It went to 9-10 all right,but you couldnt buy physical in the real world,nobody sold for that price.You could have played SLV and paper silver tho......

So if metal does see a funky pullback and you cant get real silver and want to invest at that price keep the ETF's on your radar.


----------



## bee (May 12, 2002)

OH Poo.......MBB, I got a hold of some outdated info..it is indeed 28%:smack:smack...
Gotta keep a hold on myself right now or likely I would go off on a RANT about them money grubbing idots WE sent to Washington:flame::flame:

bee


----------



## Tarheel (Jan 24, 2010)

mightybooboo said:


> So,Im thinking groceries and what do I hear on Coast to Coast last night,some guy like Steve Shreck?,something like that say food has been out pacing silver and gold lately.
> 
> Then I see Machinests' and Canning Girls' comments about steel and I think they are offering up some super options on where to reinvest their cash in something they use.
> 
> ...


Building materials not up yet, but they tell me in the next week to expect it. Spent some $$ on a new tractor shed, going Monday and buy some more fencing material that I need.

We started stocking up several years ago and it just amazes me how much things have gone up. Example- toilet paper (same brand) when I started was $9 a case, now $17. Glad we started when we did.

I am not sold out on silver, I got on the train late but still believe it's the best option for what I want it to do for me. If I can cover the property taxes with it , I think all else will fall in place. It may not be the best investment for some people, time will tell.


----------



## machinist (Aug 3, 2010)

A friend of mine said that for now, he would only spend (beyond living expenses) on something if it was productive. Many things fit that category, but for us it meant to buy another 800 watts of solar PV panels. Part of my gains from silver will go to replace the savings used for the solar panels. 

A couple reasons for this:
-Japan produced a lot of solar panels, and many of their factories are idled due to their recent disasters and the resultant elelctricity shortage there. Solar panel mfrg. is a very energy intensive process. This will tighten the supply of panels.
-Japan was also one of the biggest producers of monocrystalline silicon, the raw material for solar cells. Again, this is energy intensive. 
-Japan also mfrd. a lot of alternative energy electronics, like solar charge controllers, or the components of them. 

TIMING
That is the name of the game in investing, to choose the proper time to buy and sell. Another consideration for when to liquidate investments is that it takes TIME to spend money wisely. Prepping is a slow business, and I want plenty of time to get those orders received and in my hot little hands. It also takes time to sell physical silver, at least in my case it will be a couple days before I can get to the coin shop. Then, it will take more time to shop for the things I need and if they are ordered, it takes more time to ship the goods to me. From the point when you make the decision to sell, it could be several days to a couple months before that capital is put where you want it.

If I am not sure of what to do, my rule of thumb is to do nothing until I am sure. This helps keep me out of trouble. Hasty decisions are often wrong.


----------



## mightybooboo (Feb 10, 2004)

Pretty hard to beat panel prices right now.I bought a bunch used,somewhere around 2000 watts at 2/watt and 1.75/watt,shoot,some new ones close to that.For sure I think NOW is the time to get your solar supplies.


----------



## Blu3duk (Jun 2, 2002)

mightybooboo said:


> Pretty hard to beat panel prices right now.I bought a bunch used,somewhere around 2000 watts at 2/watt and 1.75/watt,shoot,some new ones close to that.For sure I think NOW is the time to get your solar supplies.


There ya go, the reason we buy precious metals and save them back instead of putting the fraud's into a bank savings account to draw less than 1 percent interest!! Buying the things we need to have when the timing is good, the price is right as we are needful of them.... plus it adds to the preps in a whole nother manner!

William
Idaho


----------



## mightybooboo (Feb 10, 2004)

Thats a nasty drop in the Dow today and the metal stocks are being hammered.

Im still waiting for the double dip ala 1929.


----------



## TnAndy (Sep 15, 2005)

My SPXU is up 5% today. Crash away.


----------



## mightybooboo (Feb 10, 2004)

Of the 33 metal stocks I watch,2 are up,one unchanged,30 down.

HUI is down 1.5%


----------



## bee (May 12, 2002)

took a look at the markets...everything is DOWN, but the dollar,gold and silver.....


----------



## seedspreader (Oct 18, 2004)

Silver 43.46


----------



## GoldenCityMuse (Apr 15, 2009)

Looks like it was $43.49 for a bit before tapering off.

Being in silver is simply to stop the hemorrhage of the FRN supposed value.

With all the fires, this is going to be a tough summer.


----------



## Catshooter (May 11, 2009)

machinist,

I think you've made a wise call. "Nobody ever lost money making a profit." I like that. And who can call the top? We'd all love to, but it's a tough goal to hit.

I too am retired. Moving to Florida has helped my money go a bit futher becasue food is cheaper here than I expected. Inflation is still scary though.


Cat


Cat


----------



## machinist (Aug 3, 2010)

Today, over at zerohedge, I read that TPTB have jacked up the margin requirements for silver contracts: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/second-silver-margin-hike-one-week-now-priced 

AGAIN. This has the effect of causing some margin buyers to sell out and keep the price down.

TPTB seem to be really bent on keeping silver prices down. Meanwhile, left unattended, gold soared to a new record today, touching $1570 at one point, and closing at $1565.70.


----------



## machinist (Aug 3, 2010)

I've been looking for that optimum selling point where price inflation lags the silver price increase by enough that I can come out the best. Looks like this may be as good as any I have seen up to now. 

Thus, the price of silver only matters to me _in terms of what it will buy_ at a given time. Lots of moving targets here, so you just do the best you can and trigger the sale. Then, don't waste any time putting the proceeds into the next venture. 

A very conventional friend of mine just sold his silver (I had no idea he owned any), and is doing the same kind of move. He has acreage and will probably put some beef calves on it for the summer at least, making the proceeds of his silver sale productive again. I think he caught a momentary peak this week, getting $49.60/oz. The best part was, he bought in back in the 1990's at around 5 bucks/oz.! Beyond the beef venture, he is stating to prep in earnest, and this is a guy who had never heard the term, just figured it out for himself. He is retirement age, and remembers living with old rural practices--a well with a hand pump, raising food, wood heat, and all the rest. So, he had already headed that direction before I ever broached the topic of preparedness. Looks like we're on the same page... :buds:

The point of all that is, we both want to reinvest our assets into something productive once the prep basics are covered. That is the key to making it through difficult times, IMHO, that is, to participate in the economy and thereby retain some control over your financial destiny.


----------



## JuliaAnn (Dec 7, 2004)

Interesting thread, considering we've never bought silver or gold. Or at least much of it.

DH surprised me yesterday. I'm standing there cooking dinner and he says 'I guess my silver is worth a lot more than I paid for it" and I say "Huh? What silver?" and he went to the bedroom and came back with a handful of silver coins. Real ones. I asked him where he got them, and he told me he bought them years ago from his brother for something like ten bucks each. I had no clue.


----------



## Forerunner (Mar 23, 2007)

Clueless wives _are_ what makes the world go 'round.


----------



## bee (May 12, 2002)

:nono: Forerunner; "THAT" is why I never became one...and I hope you are only joking because I seriously doubt your missus is clueless...:shocked:


----------



## JuliaAnn (Dec 7, 2004)

He's joking, Bee! I have no doubt that his missus is definitely NOT clueless! As for me not knowing about the silver, I do remember him buying a bunch of stuff from his brother to help him out of a financial bind, and at the time he probably showed them to me, but with a house full of children, one who has Down's, and running a small business, a small homestead, starting homeschooling, and etc. etc. etc., I prolly just forgot about them. It was a nice surprise, though. 

Now if he had only had some gold buillon stashed away under the bed....


----------



## Forerunner (Mar 23, 2007)

*kicks toe in dirt, humbled*

I _do_ tell Lori everything she _needs_ to know.

*taps lightly on closet door*

Don't I, Honey ?


----------



## mightybooboo (Feb 10, 2004)

Down about 9% today? GS caught in a short play? So who got out at the top here?Old Wall Street saying goes: Sell in May and go away?

When silver falls,it falls HARD and FAST.Parabolic rises have parabolic falls,they are not healthy. This time it is NOT different.GS doesnt tend to lose many of these bets do they?

But good buying times also coming FAST is my opinion.


----------



## Cabin Fever (May 10, 2002)

mightybooboo said:


> Down about 9% today? GS caught in a short play? So who got out at the top here? When silver falls,it falls HARD and FAST.Parabolic rises have parabolic falls. This time it is NOT different.But good buying times also coming FAST is my opinion.


Like I said in the first post of the thread, we didn't buy silver for investment purposes. We bought it to barter with if and when TSHTF. Makes no difference to us what its value is today or tomorrow. And rest assurred, the silver was our last prep, purchased after we felt fairly secure that our other - more important preps - were taken care of first.


----------



## seedspreader (Oct 18, 2004)

I agree with Cabin on selling, but this is a blip in my opinion. I wondering when the panic would start.


----------



## Gabriel (Dec 2, 2008)

seedspreader said:


> I agree with Cabin on selling, but this is a blip in my opinion. I wondering when the panic would start.


Are you referring to panicked selling?


----------



## mightybooboo (Feb 10, 2004)

Gabriel said:


> Are you referring to panicked selling?


Or is it market making planned selling? Much more likely,this market IS easily manipulated.Look for the 2000 lb gorilla behind the curtain,Goldman Sachs.


----------



## seedspreader (Oct 18, 2004)

Gabriel said:


> Are you referring to panicked selling?


Sure. And MBB both are possible, a manipulated market manipulates the market to a panic...

We'll see. Personally, I hope it drops down to 20 bucks or less so I can buy a heck of a lot more of it.


----------



## Forerunner (Mar 23, 2007)

I'm no expert, but, having been in the salvage metals for years, and later, a little hobby dabbling in silver, my experience and somewhat educated opinion is that we can't go wrong with long term silver and now the red metals, copper, brasses, etc.
I've commented to a very well educated and respected scrap metal marketer friend of mine that I'm not going to be selling copper anymore on the scrap market as I see it as the new silver, seeing as silver is rather the new gold. 
He firmly agreed with me.

Yes, as silver dips due to the whims of the insecure and the panic-prone, buy a little more, cuz it's gunna be back stronger than ever when this little charade runs its course.
On that note, I can't see where the prudent will get hurt buying scrap copper when the opportunity presents itself, either.

As for welding and machining steel mentioned earlier in the thread, I see that market rising until the economy tanks for good, and then you'll be able to get all the odds and ends steel you'll ever need for pennies. 
Cars, trucks and machinery will be a dime a hundred when fuel becomes unavailable.
I think there will be times when non-ferrous metals dip uncomfortably on the board, but as the dollar tanks, those metals will hang right in there with petroleum and grain stocks, eventually rising out of sight for the common man.
There will be windows of opportunity to dump some precious or semi-precious metals and procure for cheap some essentials of which the masses have not yet seen the long term value.

Kind of exciting if there wasn't the underlying gut feeling of apocalypse lurking in the shadows.


----------



## mightybooboo (Feb 10, 2004)

seedspreader said:


> Sure. And MBB both are possible, a manipulated market manipulates the market to a panic...


Sure does.The old Weak Sisters phenom.


----------



## Peggy (Feb 14, 2010)

seem like food would be worth more than silver or gold. if you have the knowledge of being able to gather your own plants (wild food) or prepare your own meat. raise chickens, rabbits, pigs, cows, catch your own fish. is'nt that worth more than silver of gold? you could use food as money. IF TEOTWAWKI does happen I would rather have the skill and knowledge of knowing how to feed my family. Just a thought.....


----------



## machinist (Aug 3, 2010)

Forerunner said:
"As for welding and machining steel mentioned earlier in the thread, I see that market rising until the economy tanks for good, and then you'll be able to get all the odds and ends steel you'll ever need for pennies. 
Cars, trucks and machinery will be a dime a hundred when fuel becomes unavailable."

I agree. (And with the rest of your post.) I think our goal needs to be wealth preservation, in whatever form makes sense for our situation, and you gave some excellent thoughts on that. 

For myself, some yellow brass and bearing bronze stock would be useful, silver solder, brazing filler rod, and other metal shop needs. I can see a time when electricity for welding and torch fuels could be hard to come by, so some of my silver stash has gone for stocking gases and fuel for my old Miller/Onan gasoline powered welder. 

The silver market is being hammered at the moment, probably trying to get the shorts out, and/or to help the COMEX shortage of metal for delivery maybe? I don't have to know exactly what is going on to see the effects and impute that it's rigged. 
Quote: "CME announces third margin increase in a week" LINK: http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/

That doesn't bother me. Those manipulations will go away eventually. I would be less inclined to sell any silver now, except that I expect the .gov to intervene at some point when the big boys get desperate. If so, all bets are off the table, and I want to be out of the way. Watching closely for signs of that. It could be a very narrow window between when things like margin increases quit working entirely, and the .gov takes a hand in it all. There might just be a period when I can catch a moonshot in there? Yeah, I'm a newbie and I am sure this is a gamble. It is a once in a lifetime shot for me to catch some fast gains for our old age when we are going to need it. Wish me luck. I'm going to need it.


----------



## seedspreader (Oct 18, 2004)

Peggy said:


> seem like food would be worth more than silver or gold. if you have the knowledge of being able to gather your own plants (wild food) or prepare your own meat. raise chickens, rabbits, pigs, cows, catch your own fish. is'nt that worth more than silver of gold? you could use food as money. IF TEOTWAWKI does happen I would rather have the skill and knowledge of knowing how to feed my family. Just a thought.....


In case you haven't read all of our posts, almost everyone here already is working on skills and has food stashed.

As has been noted, you can't carry chickens cans of beans and cows with you when you have to travel though.

Anyone familiar with Barter will know that money was the great equalizer in a barter because it opens up the field to more participants in the barter.


----------



## TnAndy (Sep 15, 2005)

machinist said:


> It is a once in a lifetime shot for me to catch some fast gains for our old age when we are going to need it. Wish me luck. I'm going to need it.


I used to wish people luck.....but then one day I realized there was a limited amount of luck in the universe, and every time I wished some away, that left less for me, so I no longer do that.....

:happy0035:

Nah, really, your post makes a lot of sense.


----------



## mightybooboo (Feb 10, 2004)

Im certainly not down on metal.I just think this brief period is a time for caution for purchasers.

Still agree with all that holding some is a very good move,just want folks to get their best bang for the buck,I dont think the rocket is on a critical launch right now and its now or never.We need a retrenchment and a new baseline point for silver.Thats a good thing.A little patience shouldnt hurt much and may save you some bucks and maximize your holdings regarding silver.

Those in metal stocks,be very patient IMO,they are still trending down,better buy times ahead.IMO,and lots of money to be made there for 401k,retirement fund holders.Much better than mutual funds if you do your due diligence.And miners let you ride the metal train.

I really dont like mutual funds,you should control your money,not someone who has nothing to lose if they make bad bets.I see that as giving someone your ATM card,not this boy.If you cant invest it in stocks yourself,dont play stocks at all.You have no business being in that investment,buy something you do understand.

I sure like golds stability right now,thats a much more reasoned upward march.And for wealth preservationists you have to have BOTH metals.Seems when one is going nutz the other is nice and stable.More/less.


----------



## mightybooboo (Feb 10, 2004)

Cabin Fever said:


> Like I said in the first post of the thread, we didn't buy silver for investment purposes. We bought it to barter with if and when TSHTF.


Sure you did,you are investing in preserving your buying power.


----------



## Betho (Dec 27, 2006)

Peggy said:


> seem like food would be worth more than silver or gold. if you have the knowledge of being able to gather your own plants (wild food) or prepare your own meat. raise chickens, rabbits, pigs, cows, catch your own fish. is'nt that worth more than silver of gold? you could use food as money. IF TEOTWAWKI does happen I would rather have the skill and knowledge of knowing how to feed my family. Just a thought.....


It doesn't have to be an "either or" situation. Consider this for a moment... TEOTWAWAKI happens. You are able to survive due to the fact you've taught yourself how to feed your family. At the moment, that IS worth more than gold or silver.

Couple of years down the road, the population stabilizes, and the survivors are all people who know how to be sustainable and feed their families. A pretty likely scenario. So what then? What if someone gets a bad cut and the person who has the antibiotics says "I don't want chickens, rabbits, pigs, cows or fish. Sorry, but you don't have anything I want, so you can't have my antibiotics." What then? Is that family member going to die because of an infection? Not everyone will be a nice person and trade for what you HAVE, they will trade for what they WANT and if you don't have what they WANT, then you aren't getting what they have. 

That's why we've prepped a little bit of silver. Because when push comes to shove, I am being realistic in saying that I know that at some point, I will need to barter and trade at some point for something, and the person who has what I want may not want what I have. Silver is the great equalizer, and has been used so for centuries. Some sort of SHTF scenario isn't going to change that in the longterm.


----------



## texican (Oct 4, 2003)

Betho said:


> It doesn't have to be an "either or" situation. Consider this for a moment... TEOTWAWAKI happens. You are able to survive due to the fact you've taught yourself how to feed your family. At the moment, that IS worth more than gold or silver.
> 
> Couple of years down the road, the population stabilizes, and the survivors are all people who know how to be sustainable and feed their families. A pretty likely scenario. So what then? What if someone gets a bad cut and the person who has the antibiotics says "I don't want chickens, rabbits, pigs, cows or fish. Sorry, but you don't have anything I want, so you can't have my antibiotics." What then? Is that family member going to die because of an infection? Not everyone will be a nice person and trade for what you HAVE, they will trade for what they WANT and if you don't have what they WANT, then you aren't getting what they have.
> 
> That's why we've prepped a little bit of silver. Because when push comes to shove, I am being realistic in saying that I know that at some point, I will need to barter and trade at some point for something, and the person who has what I want may not want what I have. Silver is the great equalizer, and has been used so for centuries. Some sort of SHTF scenario isn't going to change that in the longterm.


Never hurts to have something that someone thinks is valuable, whether it is or not.

If that means pulling out a Morgan dollar for some life giving medicine that I stupidly didn't think of stocking, so be it.

I/we won't be able to think of absolutely everything... in my case, my hope is someone might have that 'something' that I forgot, and I'll have something they need, in exchange... 

Best of all worlds... have everything available you think you'll ever need... and take up the wonderful world of numismatics. Before the recent spike in PM's, I'd go to shows with my little cheat sheets, a loupe, and in my daypack, books on specialties (such as the VAM variety book covering Morgan silver dollars). Picked up a lot of coins for 'silver content' while the numismatic value was 4 or 5x that price. Small bag of silver is just an extra insurance policy, covering whatever I might have 'forgot'.


----------



## mightybooboo (Feb 10, 2004)

texican said:


> I/we won't be able to think of absolutely everything... in my case, my hope is someone might have that 'something' that I forgot, and I'll have something they need, in exchange...


You got that part right,but Im still not betting on TEOTWAWKI,but economic crisis,its a given,for many already its stark reality.


----------



## machinist (Aug 3, 2010)

There is a series of videos done on silver "insider info", and the following makes #6.

Those nasty silver teddy bears are back again, with some explanation of what is going on with silver prices. And, yes, they agree that we are in the end game now. NOTE: Some vulgarity in the the video. Seems to me like the situation would make a lot of people cuss...
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/silver-bears-are-back Scroll down and click the video. 

They say that there are now, and will be going forward, TWO PRICES for silver: A) The "spot" price that only refers to PAPER silver (funds supposedly backed by physical metal, but almost assuredly not so), and B) the price of real physical silver, which will be much higher. 

They say that both London and the COMEX are essentally unable to deliver physical, or will be soon enough. Makes ya go hmmm. It's getting really strange out there...

And, no, I haven't sold out yet. A friend of mine did about a week~ ago, and was shocked to get $49.60/ounce when spot was about $48! Maybe there is something to what those bears are saying.


----------



## Roadking (Oct 8, 2009)

Well, hit a lil "antique" store the other day that had a display of old flatware...$0.25 per piece. It's a consignment place.
Looked thru it all, searching for the "Sterling" and "AG" ( and bought a few "AI" as well). For around $5 came home, researched them and came up with about 6 oz silver content...(not counting the "AI" stuff, I just liked them).
You'd think an "antique" shop would have a better knowledge of such things.
Matt


----------



## texican (Oct 4, 2003)

mightybooboo said:


> You got that part right,but Im still not betting on TEOTWAWKI,but economic crisis,its a given,for many already its stark reality.


I'm not betting on 'my' version of TEOTWAWKI... my worst scenario is dark and dreary, an end of an age.

But, to the average Joe Sixpack... the end of their world as they know it, could easily occur. Most of my family's eyes get glazed over when I tell them there money could be worthless in a year or two... For someone with a 'modern' lifestyle, having to drop down to my standard of living would be the 'end'.

As long as there is civilization, and a functioning economy, I'll have a commodity that someone will be willing to pay for, in the coin du jour, whether it be FRN's, Loonies, North American Pesos, Gold, or Silver. Folks will always have need for natural gas and oil. If I didn't have this resource in my back pocket, I'd'a had a much larger cache of PM's for a safety net.


----------



## mightybooboo (Feb 10, 2004)

texican said:


> I Most of my family's eyes get glazed over when I tell them there money could be worthless in a year or two...


Son in N.M talking to wife....I know you THINK things are really bad,but this is N.M.,not Ca. Its different here,we only have a 380 million dollar deficit.....

COMPLETELY unable to grasp the larger picture that its the USA and China and dollar that are the BIG factors,not the state deficits.


----------

