# What do you consider the most likely shtf scenerio to affect you



## Nessa's Nannies (Mar 4, 2006)

I've been wondering this for a while, because the varience in the response affects how one prepares. I even searched for it here, but I didn't find an appropiate answer, so if someone already asked this before, please forgive me)

Is it a natural dissaster that affects you locally for a short term w/ a long aftermath? (ie, hurricane andrew, earthquake, tornados, volcano eruption, etc)

Is it a natural dissaster that affects you locally for a long term w/ a long aftermath? (katrina comes to mind, but also consider a continuos volcano ash eruption, or grapes of wrath type dust bowl)

Is it a man-made calamity w/ cathastrophic local events and a long aftermath? (nuclear explosion)

man-made clamity w/ long term build up (night of the living dead type dissease) and long aftermath

Local War? Economics? Depression? becoming a third world country?

Did I miss anything? I am interested in your answers. thanks.


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## RichieC (Aug 29, 2007)

I live on what they call a "hill farm". It has flooded in this area, fairly seriously, 3 of the last 4 years. Then I live on what they call an "island".

It is also common to lose electricity for several days, or even as much as a week/week-and-a-half. Lost power for just 3 days this winter, because it was cold enough to snow instead of icing.

So my preparedness scenario is "A week in the 18th century". I personally find the "Lifetime in the Great Depression" and "(short) Lifetime in Mad-Max World" scenarios to be farfetched at best.

So, I have no stores of dried beans and wheatberries. I do have stores of canned things that can be heated on top of the woodstove. I have oil lamps and oil, but mostly battery-operated lights. 

I consider the best "prep" to be "money". I get very concerned for people who convert all of their funds into beans, or silver, or bullets. SHTF _may_ come. Old age _will _come.


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## swampgirl (Aug 29, 2006)

The collapse of our U.S. economic system & the consequent end of my monthly retirement check(from a state retirement system) seems to be the most likely shtf scenerio that might come my way. Of course, if the value of the dollar keeps falling & the prices keep rising, the arrival of a monthly check really won't matter.


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## booklover (Jan 22, 2007)

For us, it would be natural disaster... most likely a tornado, although, seismologists do warn that the New Madrid fault, which has not had significant activity since 1895, could cause a major earthquake at any time.

I do think that the economy could affect us, though not significantly. Dh's job is as near to recession-proof as they get. He's a tenured professor and unless they actually close the university, he has a job. Our investments are also well-diversified internationally, so I can't see us losing our shirts. I try to be frugal, so we tighten our belts the best we can and may need to do so more in the future.

In the case of total social meltdown, we're dead anyway because we don't own weapons. C'est la vie.


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## two_barking_dogs (Sep 17, 2002)

For me I think about and plan for the following in this order

1: job loss - This is where I've lost my job due to say a layoff but the economy is basically as healthy or healthlier then it is today

2: localized natural disaster - This will be something like an ice storm that causes us to be without power for less then a month. This type of disaster is localized so you could drive your way outside of the area to buy supplies

3: a terrorist attack having national implications - This is an attack which causes a change of lifestyle such as knocking out the Saudi oil production facilities. A 9/11 type of attack while horrific is not included here.

4: global ecomonic depression - #3 could cause this or our political leaders. Whatever the cause I'd expect job lose for both myself, family, neighbors. Could include shortages of items to purchase in stores, power brownouts, and a rise in crime and looting. I don't consider this likely but it could happen

5: zombie uprising - Well it could happen


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## home~girl (Nov 26, 2005)

The most likely is a hurricane, because we went thru Katrina and I know how totally messed up that was. We live in S.E. Mississippi, so it's a valid fear. And if we had not had water and food stored - short term we would have been in a world of trouble. Because first... we had to move fallen trees out of the drive and wait for them to remove trees and fallen power lines from the roads to go anywhere.Then there were long lines for gas that ran out quick! 

So between that and it taking a while to get water and MRI's to our area... well you get the picture. Always, always be prepared no matter where you live with food and water stores , keep your vehicles filled up with gas, and some lanterns and such. A gas grill is a good idea too with extra bottles. You can do a lot for a short time with that. Longer term ... well build a fire I guess  

The other possible scenarios are illness, accident ( personal wtshtf) situations. And the biggie... The economy collapsing. Whew.. That's enough right there to think about. I won't bother naming all the rest. 

P.S. You would think notice of a hurricane coming would cause folks to prepare. Not so, many didn't prepare in any way..... So I can only imagine if something happened that affected a larger portion of the country than coasts.


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## Morning Owl (Oct 13, 2005)

The biggest most likely SHTF for me would be a forest fire. Every summer thousands of acre burn up in fires here. So I'm working on evacutation plans. My biggest problem at this point is my chickens. We do get earth quakes here but not very big ones and I'm not near a major fault line. I do worry about a recession, depression & job loss so I stock food. We also get pretty bad winter storms here so I am set up to live (for the most part) with out power. This is an on going project.


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

Around here it would most likely be a hurricane.

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/19990915/



> Specifically in North Carolina, there were 35 deaths; 7000 homes destroyed; 17,000 homes uninhabitable; 56,000 homes damaged; most roads east of I-95 flooded; Tar River crests 24 feet above flood stage; over 1500 people rescued from flooded areas; over 500,000 customers without electricity at some point; 10,000 people housed in temporary shelters; much of Duplin and Greene Counties under water; severe agricultural damage throughout eastern NC; "Nothing since the Civil War has been as destructive to families here," says H. David Bruton, the state's Secretary of Health and Human Services...."The recovery process will be much longer than the water-going-down process"; Wilmington reports new 24-hour station rainfall record (128 year record) with 13.38 inches and over 19 inches for the event.


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## hillsidedigger (Sep 19, 2006)

Prolonged worldwide famine is inevitable and has already begun.


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## Cyngbaeld (May 20, 2004)

I'm prepping for the power being off and not being able to go buy food/fuel, etc.


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## NJ Rich (Dec 14, 2005)

A big coastal storm causing massive power line damage and possible loss of city water. I have access to the local reservoir's over flow brook half a mile away and a small brook behind the house. Yes, I stock water, but I am talking long term loss.

Food preps are an on-going work in progress. We can last awhile.

Even a moderate terrorist attack on NYC would send people to the countryside. It wouldn't take much I am afraid. That is worse case for me. I have new neighbors from the city area and I am sure their families will follow in the event of trouble.


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## Trixters_muse (Jan 29, 2008)

Definately a hurricane.

I have been without power for days more than once and have had to evacuate other places I lived for days at a time...it's never fun and no matter how prepared i thought I was, there was always something I could have done better.

My second worry is a depression, but I'm doing what I can to keep us alfoat no matter what the problem is.


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## Freeholder (Jun 19, 2004)

In no particular order, here are the things that could affect us here:

Winter storms -- we have had power outages in the past, and a bad storm could leave us without power for several days.

Flooding -- an extremely wet winter could POSSIBLY put the Klamath River out of its banks, and since we are near the river on low ground, we might expect to get wet here. I don't think this is very likely, as the river is controlled by a series of dams, and excess water is let out as needed.

Earthquake -- this area had a 7.something in the early '90s, and could easily have another one. 

Fire -- in our house, or possibly the forest which surrounds our subdivision. 

Chemical spill -- we live near a highway which sees some tanker truck traffic, and also fairly near the RR, which sees a lot of traffic (major north-south route).

Personal financial problems -- we have a pretty low income, and live pretty close to the edge, so any major unexpected expense could mean we would need to live on our preps for a while.

Widespread economic problems -- prolonged recession, Depression, or worse -- could happen. We aren't exempt, and our modern 'civilization' is very vulnerable to disruptions. I think rather than any major sudden shock, we are more likely to see a gradual deterioration of the situation, and deterioration of the infrastructure (which could eventually lead to loss of some of our utilities, at least part of the time).

War -- there's a small training base in town, and a radar site on top of a nearby hill -- both could possibly be targets in an all-out war. Hopefully not the most likely scenario.

Other things such as comets impacting the earth and so on, I'm not going to be too concerned about. But we do live within eighty miles of three volcanoes, and at least two of them are only dormant (Mt. Mazama/Crater Lake, and Mt. Shasta. The other, Mt. McLaughlin, I'm not sure about -- it's the closest one.).

Kathleen


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## Nessa's Nannies (Mar 4, 2006)

Thank you guys. Please keep your answers rolling in.

I feel this is a very revealing discussion on the likelyhood of a shtf even happening over another, from each individual perspectives.

In my case my number 1. is hurricanes, however there are some contingencies to how well my preperadness will work, mostly in the case of whether i can ride it out or i must evacuate. if an "andrew" type 5 is heading my way, i'm affraid there is not much for me to do but evac. And an evac scenario is totally different than a staying at home, defending my property, scenario.


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## baldylocks (Aug 15, 2007)

I guess I am interested in prepping for economic issues and short-term everything else issues. I figure if we go into a long-term Mad-Max scenario, I don't really want to survive (good thing since I don't look good in leather and spikes).

I think long term stuff is a possibility but I don't know how one really preps for that. I like the idea of a year's worth of food but beyond that is hard for me to conceive. We have a lot of people on the planet and if most of them get hungry all of a sudden, I don't think my preps will go very far when they come breaking down the door. I can't fight off huge hoardes so I don't even worry about long term issues.


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## Randy Rooster (Dec 14, 2004)

A category 4 or 5 hurricane. I've been thru cats 1, 2, 3. After the cat 3 we were without power for 10 long days. No looters though, but I can imagine them coming out of the woodwork after worse storms.


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## longshot38 (Dec 19, 2006)

for us it would most likely be a major winter storm, we live out in the atlantic. power disruptions from this would be most likely. there is also the possibility of disruptions to the supply networks that ship most of the consumables as well as staples into the province. im working on setting up my own supply of basic food stocks and necessary supplies/medications. global meltdown economic or war related is always a possibility and could have the effects noted above but for a longer time.


dean


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## tickranch (Jan 6, 2007)

Divorce~ he told me today he wants one, but he has been saying that for a few years now.

I'm at stay-at-home-homeschooling-homesteading-mama. A divorce would turn my world upside down.

Also tornadoes, major winter storms, long term power outages, economic collapse and or job loss, also earthquakes.


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## ailsaek (Feb 7, 2007)

My preps are for two basic scenarios - power outage (winter storm, summer storm, power company just feels like it today) and money outage. I'm working on preparing for a large-scale money outage, but that's more involved.

One inconvenient scenario I envision is people in the Atlanta area noticing the New England has lots of water and not as bad winters as we used to have, so any of them with money get transferred up here. I want to move far enough north to be out of range if that happens.


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## Cheryl in SD (Apr 22, 2005)

First, we prepped for a forest fire. Then we prep for a blizzard or flood and beinbg without power for extended periods of time and unable to leave. Now we are prepping for economic trouble. 

The really big stuff, those we will just have to do our best. The only one I am not to concerned with is zombies. I am not prepping for those at all.


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## JGex (Dec 27, 2005)

ailsaek said:


> My preps are for two basic scenarios - power outage (winter storm, summer storm, power company just feels like it today) and money outage. I'm working on preparing for a large-scale money outage, but that's more involved.
> 
> One inconvenient scenario I envision is people in the Atlanta area noticing the New England has lots of water and not as bad winters as we used to have, so any of them with money get transferred up here. I want to move far enough north to be out of range if that happens.


You don't have to worry about me moving up there. Too cold for this Southern gal.


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## virtualco (Feb 3, 2006)

Cyngbaeld said:


> I'm prepping for the power being off and not being able to go buy food/fuel, etc.


I like Cyngbaeld answer because at the central core of most SHTF scenarios it comes down to no power, and not being able to buy food or fuels. 

Whether it is an economic collapse (to include job loss/retirement check stopping), hurricane (for me in FL), warfare, etc., the central core is what Cyngbaeld is prepping for.


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## gideonprime (Oct 17, 2007)

Hurricanes.

Power outages.

Job Loss.

Maybe Zombies but they tend to be slow and easy to avoid. I just stock extra salt to keep them at bay.


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## JGex (Dec 27, 2005)

I've always had the propensity to have extra rations in the house... grew up in South Mississippi, so we always had stuff put back for hurricanes.

We're ready for short term power outages and bad weather and if one of us gets sick or we lose our primary source of income. 

Long term economic crisis? Well, if it happens, we'll be OK.

Zombies? Not too concerned about that.....


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## newfieannie (Dec 24, 2006)

more or less like longshot. a major storm. we had a hurricane about 4 years ago. power was off in the city in some places for 2 weeks. i was out of power in the condo for a day or so but i had my place in the country with a woodstove, lanterns and everything else i needed there were trees down along the way but i managed to get around or over them with my 4-wheel drive. wasn't long before i had a big fire goin and stuff cooking on the stove. no power out there either but i didn't need it.

i hear of some small earthquakes but not close to this. tremors really.(the only really big one i have heard of around is the one in newfoundland before i was born or maybe that was a tidal wave) we also had a snowstorm a little after that where we were stuck.4 or 5 ft or so. i didn't lose power that time. so that's probably the kind of thing i'm prepping for but i am prepared for much more. i wouldn't want to live in a Mad Max scenario either although i do look good in leather. not sure of the spikes though. ...Georgia.


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## mnn2501 (Apr 2, 2008)

Interesting thread, thanks for starting it

My SHTF scenario is mainly general economic problems of which I think has already started in a major way. Fuel prices are already causing everything else to go up in price, grocery bills (along with everything else) are already increasing, disposable income is going down - the Housing markets bubble has burst and the sub-prime loan scandal is adding fuel to the economic fires. I believe a lot more people will lose their jobs before this is over. The Feds will keep printing money (saw they printed $50 Billion in an article today) which means the dollar will keep dropping verses foreign currency. With the dollars value dropping, we will be paying more and more for foreign oil which means that prices will continue to rise - people will not have as much disposable income, which means they wonât be spending money if its not a necessity - thus more people out of work. Itâs a vicious cycle. 
Now the good news - the higher fuel prices go the more incentive for alternative fuels, weâll get hydrogen powered cars out of this - too bad itâll be 30 years too late and Iâll be an old man if not dead by then.


I first started with SHTF scenarios when my older brother gave me a copy of Farnhams Freehold (by Robert Heinlein) when I was a teen, I was hooked every since, including being a major fan of the Jericho TV show which was (once again) canceled -- too bad, it gave people an honest look at how bad things could (will) get if the shtf for good. If you have not seen it, pick up the DVD's.


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## hoggie (Feb 11, 2007)

If I'm honest, I haven't got a clue WHY I prep as I live in an environment where I cannot imagine any of the stuff you guys get. I guess it jsut feels "right" to prep. Something that has always been in me.

Or maybe it is BECAUSE it is so safe around here. If something were to happen absolutely no-on ewould be ready for it - if that makes any sense at all LOL

hoggie


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## AR Transplant (Mar 20, 2004)

Tickranch-- wow divorce, that is pretty hard. Are or have you done anything to prepare for this in case it occurs, or better yet, have you considered counseling either together or alone? I can't imagine how you could prepare for anything else unless you got this settled. 

I am so sorry, I can't imaging how much it would hurt to hear your dh say that. I truly hope you can get things sorted out.

ar


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## Explorer (Dec 2, 2003)

I'm prepped for everything I would care to survive.


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## Henry (Mar 1, 2006)

We had no power at all for 10 years so we have lots of experience with self sufficiency. Every year we are snowed in. What turned us from just big yearly stockers to full on prepers is our kids grew up went away and told us every summer when they come north to visit that they are relying on us to keep the place good for them to escape to. 
So we do not prep for a single event but rather what we would need to keep the family healthy and happy for years. Thats 14 people right now. With that in mind we have wood and hand systems. Storage for one winter was easy as we just filled our full basement up with preps. Now we need outbuildings with there own basements to keep the goods. When the family comes we will all live in the main house in the winter as that will reduce efforts at wood gathering. In the summer some will move into the guest house. Fire was mentioned and we do target this. We have an extensive diesel fire pumping system that uses agriculture sprinklers and set up every summer. This system covers all our buildings of about 2 acres and the world is wet when its on. The river is about 250' from the house but we are 65' above the flood level. We get over 25' sometimes 30' of snow so all roofs are built for serious weight loads. Thats all I can think of for now.


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## unregistered29228 (Jan 9, 2008)

tickranch said:


> Divorce~ he told me today he wants one, but he has been saying that for a few years now.


I'm sorry to hear that...I hope he's just going through a phase. It's so hard on the kids when a family breaks up.

But to answer the OP, I think the most likely scenario here is a hurricane, or possibly a tornado or a forest fire. We're also near an earthquake fault, so that's possible too. We wouldn't have any problem with being without electricity for a short while. I'm working towards our being able to do without electricity long term, or to generate it ourselves. 

And less worrisome to me, but also a possibility, is a widespread outbreak of flu or some other disease. I'd like for us to be able to just stay isolated for a long time if that happens.

And in case of a terrorist or civil unrest event, I'm hoping we can stay home and protect what's ours.

And otherwise my prepping is just a way to feed the family more healthy food, save money by buying on sale and in bulk, and to dabble with the "old ways" of doing things.


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## mnn2501 (Apr 2, 2008)

tickranch said:


> Divorce~ he told me today he wants one, but he has been saying that for a few years now.
> 
> I'm at stay-at-home-homeschooling-homesteading-mama. A divorce would turn my world upside down.


Sorry to hear that, as someone who's been through one about 15 years ago get a good lawyer, a real good one.


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## AngieM2 (May 10, 2002)

That divorce thing - got the t-shirt. That was one of a few SHTF's for me.

Right now, more recovering from last problem of being unemployed or way under employed after a lay off in 2005.. I did pretty good, kept bills going and used up lay off and 401K. Now in re-building stages.

Regular stuff - power outages (tornado alley area). Could get interesting if anyone got too interested in NASA and Marshall Space Flight Center or Redstone Arsnal.

Of course, inflation and keeping up with me, much less the Jones.

Life.

Angie

(and maybe even an unfriendly zombie).


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## no hurry (Mar 16, 2008)

I know several people mentioned job loss, for me it would getting medically seperated from the Air Force before I can retire in 7 years. My whole homestead plan is built on that retirement check and the money I am saving until then. If I get booted at 14 or 15 years in, I lose my retirement entirely! :grump:


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## Spinner (Jul 19, 2003)

I prep b/c I was raised in a family that was self sufficient. It's a lifestyle that I've always lived (other than my few rebellious years in the city). I can't imagine life without being stocked up on food and things that I know we'll need in the future. 

I buy wheat berries because I use wheat berries. I feel sorry for people who buy up a bunch of them and don't really know how to use them. I only stock things I use and I rotate the stock so nothing ever gets old and wasted. 

The electric goes out very often here. The first time it happened it was a shock to live 2 weeks with no electricity. It didn't take me long to prep for the next time. Now it's normal to light a lamp and cook on a wood stove.


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## pickapeppa (Jan 1, 2005)

A job loss. It's not a matter of if, but when. Unfortunately, I'm the only one of us who sees it coming as a definite.


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## NoClue (Jan 22, 2007)

no hurry said:


> I know several people mentioned job loss, for me it would getting medically seperated from the Air Force before I can retire in 7 years. My whole homestead plan is built on that retirement check and the money I am saving until then. If I get booted at 14 or 15 years in, I lose my retirement entirely! :grump:


Not necessarily, depending on the specifics of your case

I was medically separated from the Navy at 13 1/2 years. I received a lump sum check of about 60K and after a year or so of processing, started receiving a check from the VA - not quite as much as I would have gotten in retirement, but VA money is tax free.


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## Horns Bach (Mar 11, 2008)

Fuel rationing - and it looks like it is possible we may see it soon (within 5 years). Happened in the 70's. Just received some advice that if you put a fuel storage tank on your farm or ranch then you get priority for fuel. My advisor said in the 70's they never had a problem getting fuel because of this.

Fuel rationing would mean the end of my commute, thus the end of my job, unless more buses get going. Rural folks who commute will suffer the most. Sometimes it feels like "they" want to destroy our sense of rural independence and force us to live in crowded cities...


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## Gary in ohio (May 11, 2002)

I am surprised few had transportation related accidents. If your live near an interstate, state route or railroad you have a serious risk. Not only is it serious, it will most likely mean you need to leave all your stores you have at home and leave with what you can carry. DONT assume you will be able to drive out, You may be transported and what and how much you can take will be restricted.


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## tobo6 (Jan 14, 2003)

I don't see being without electricity for a few days in the winter, or not being able to go to the store because of a snowstorm, having your road washed out because of flooding, ect. as a shtf type of thing. That is common sense that you should be prepared for. 

I believe shtf for me stands for a different way of living permanantly. I also believe that our lives are already changing. Sure there could be a big boom, and everyone will be effected, but what about all the changes that have been happening. Things that have been given to us slowly, so most people are more accepting? Nafta, terrorist bombings, Iraq war, recession, illegals, gps in our cars, codes on our drivers licenses..and the fact they get put through a face recognition program before being mailed to us, trying to keep track of the animals we have, the guns we have, the food we have. How about profiling our kids when they take standardized tests, being able to use a satellite to see our homes? I could go on and on...some people don't think of the changes and accept them for progress, the future. 

In that respect, the shtf already....when someday it goes farther and you hear others saying "Hang on a minute, Mr. Gooberman, I don't want to leave my house. I don't want to hand over my guns, and my first born child." You'll be glad you are prepped.....for the long haul.


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## StoneFence (Feb 4, 2005)

We're prepping for an ice storm(short term) or economic downturn/high fuel prices(longer term).


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## Firethorn (Nov 1, 2004)

hum, government S***. Or maybe straight winds. (but the later is minor and temporary)


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## pickapeppa (Jan 1, 2005)

We aren't exactly prepping, just living frugally and insulating ourselves against a possible hyper-inflationary event down the road, as well as a possible significant reduction in income.

It's all we can do.


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## gunsmithgirl (Sep 28, 2003)

Major federal gun ban.


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## ginnie5 (Jul 15, 2003)

No power/gas and not being able to purchase food. Job loss for dh. At one point in our life I actually thought we were pretty immune from that. Last year I learned we weren't. Having a good stock of things saw us through 3-4 months when he didn't work. We managed to pay the mortage and bills but there was no $ for food left. I'd like to have more than those 3-4 months put back though.


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## texican (Oct 4, 2003)

Hurricanes for sure. We're out of the range of most hurricanes... but hurricanes spawn the golden hordes to evacuate and land in my area....


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## no hurry (Mar 16, 2008)

NoClue said:


> Not necessarily, depending on the specifics of your case
> 
> I was medically separated from the Navy at 13 1/2 years. I received a lump sum check of about 60K and after a year or so of processing, started receiving a check from the VA - not quite as much as I would have gotten in retirement, but VA money is tax free.


That is what I have seen happening toa few others. If my knee realignment surgery does not produce the hoped for results, I will be a disabeld vet because the years of running have damaged my knee so badly that every step is painful. Hopefull the surgery will work though, and I will get E-7 retirement pay 

Even though I am hoping for the best, I am planning for the worst!!


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## PA_MIKE (Mar 25, 2007)

A race war after Obama gets elected and the economy finishes it's crash


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## Shinsan (Jul 11, 2006)

1: Job loss: Mortgage and three girls at high school.

2: Localized natural disaster: - This would probably flood in our area, but we could drive out if we had enough notice. 

3: Global economic depression resulting in shortages of essential items, including food, in turn resulting in an increase in crime, and looting. I feel this is very much on the cards.

4: Global War, however caused. Unfortunately, this appears to be increasingly likely.

5: The closing down of the Vegemite factory.


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## pickapeppa (Jan 1, 2005)

How far away from a nuclear power plant is considered the 'safe zone' if there is a meltdown?

Maybe we should have some BOBs ready. This just occurred to me last night after signing off.


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## Ninn (Oct 28, 2006)

Currently, I'm preparing for a rather odd SHTF scenario. The owner of the trailer park where we live is well aware of the fact that DH is unemployed for 3 months each winter. Our agreement with him is that after DH goes back to work, we pay double rent for the next 3 months to get current. We have nearly all the that ready to pay in already, due to DH's recent promotion. However, his managing agent is not happy with that agreement and has threatened us with eviction proceedings if we do not pay nearly 5 months rent instead of the agreed upon 3. (he sent us the threat notice on my myspace!) I wrote and telephoned the park owner, and am awaiting his response. I may just avoid the middle man altogether after this point. 

But in order to be ready in case we actually have to go to court, I am sorting paperwork and making sure I am ready to pack if I have to. Unfortunately, we have nowhere to go if he manages to get us evicted. It's a mess all the way around. We don't bother anyone. We follow the rules to the letter-even the ones that code says are illegal. We pay extra every month for DS's car to park in our yard. We pretty much keep to ourselves, unless there is a problem. We don't even say anything when management's failure to do their job costs DH time at work. (he lost 4 days this year due to impassable roads-they didn't plow and even my truck couldn't get out of here!)

I'm always working on the long term stuff, but right now, my SHTF situation could come down to boarding my dog and living in my truck. I'm REALLY glad I got rid of all that junk in my house. If I have to move it, at least it will be pretty much empty.


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## booklover (Jan 22, 2007)

pickapeppa said:


> How far away from a nuclear power plant is considered the 'safe zone' if there is a meltdown?
> 
> Maybe we should have some BOBs ready. This just occurred to me last night after signing off.


Depends on the way the wind is blowing that day.


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## Nessa's Nannies (Mar 4, 2006)

It has been interesting to learn how different people would takle different scenarios.

In my case as I stated before, a hurricane that would NOT cause destruction of home, I could deal with easily. I consider being w/o electricity a vacation, so I don't consider it a shtf scenerio. Also I believe that we would be connected to power in a matter of weeks, (couple of months, tops. Most areas in South Florida are burrying their power lines, which helps out a great deal.

My worst case scenerio would have to be leaving home and not being able to come back or not having anything to come back to. To that end I hope to have an underground cellar so if my house blows away i could have a stockpile/ base of operation to work from. 

But if the situation affects the surrounding area/ region, then I would consider moving /leaving. Maybe even outside of the country, if need be.

So IMHO the number 1. thing you can take with you no matter what is "knowledge".
If you are an accredited nurse, whether you are in the east coast, west coast, canada, mexico or thailand, chances are 1. people will need your skill set and 2. there will be a way for you to become accredited and use your skills

If you can garden, you can garden and feed yourself no matter where you are.

A distant 2 would be money, because it could help but if the value of your money is dropping (as in the case of dollar is in comparison to the euro) then that limits the gain.

PS- As far as a nuclear accident is concerned, the biggest damage would be due to everything getting contaminated, and thus having to ship everything in, (water and food). You would not be able to garden because the ground would be contaminated as well as the water in wells. However, in extreme cases (ie Chernobyl) people have continued to ingest food cultivated in these areas, and have continued to survived under these conditions long past most experts expectations.


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## Common Tator (Feb 19, 2008)

We live very near the San Andreas faultline, and even nearer the fault that caused the Big Bear Quake several years back. The locals that lived in the area at that time tell me they were isolated by rockslides on the highway for three weeks. And that wasn't even that big a quake!


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## jlxian (Feb 14, 2005)

My personal SHTF scenario would be loss of income --- due to job loss or inability to get to job for whatever reason (epidemic, personal injury, no fuel) 

We already have to expect ice storms in the winter (had 4 days of no electricity in December), so we have to be able to "shelter in place" and are prepared for that. After the December ice storm we had an electrician fix our water pump electrical connection so that we can switch it over to be powered by the generator. And I have food stored for a few weeks. We heat with wood. 

Economic chaos would be one of the worst case scenarios for me. Unfortunately I think it is pretty likely to occur.


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## CacheCraven (Apr 5, 2007)

I'm in southern Arkansas. I am sitting here under a tornado watch, withing spitting distance of an arsenal that is doing chemical weapons disposal, & within reach of the New Madrid. May be I did not choose my location wisely.
Lisa in Lower Arkansas


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## dixiecaveman (Apr 1, 2008)

I have always lived on the SE coast so hurricanes have become the norm for me.But I have really been caught off gaurd by my own SHTF situation that started last December when I was rushed to the hospital because of my gall bladder bursting.What I would have thought to be a simple in and out operation turned into a 59 day stay in the hospital due to pancreatitis.Now here it is going on 5 months later and I still haven't returned to work,and may not be able to,at least not anytime soon.I am still having complications and my doctors say they may go on for years.Haven't been able to get a garden started this year,but working on getting some tomatoes and cukes started.Five months out of work so far without any warning,two months of that being away from home but with 2 teenage daughters,4 chickens (left),2 ducks(left),and 3 big dogs (who did what they could to help the chickens,ducks and the girls) there at home,and somehow,by the grace of God,we are still surviving.Thanks a lot for the forum guys,you all have really been a help to me in the past and present,even if I "lurked" so long before signing up.Just thought I'd pass along another SHTF situation to think about.


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## Tracy Rimmer (May 9, 2002)

The two most pressing ones here (southwestern Manitoba) are extreme drought causing dust-bowl conditions -- which is frighteningly possible as we're dry already, and it's only April), and tornado (an F3 passed ten miles south of us last year).

I comfort myself with the knowledge that our area sits on one of the biggest aquifers in the province, and that this old house has stood here for a century, so chances are any tornado will miss us -- although I suppose we've got as much chance of being hit as anyone, given the rather random nature of tornadoes.

What do you do to prepare? Well, we have a couple of deep drilled wells that go down to the aquifer -- and we're told that it would take one heck of a drought to lose that. Tornado? Well, my kids know the drill. They know what to take, what to leave. They know that they don't go looking for the dog or livestock, they get themselves under cover NOW. We have an area in the basement that is semi-prepared for such a situation. 

You can't prepare for everything, of course, but being aware of the possibilities is the first step.

Another possibility here is the fact that the main Enbridge pipeline from Alberta to the States runs within 200 yards of my house. Anything "big" ever happening with that would certainly affect us, but there is nothing to be done about that -- I choose to not worry about it


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## Ruby (May 10, 2002)

For us personaly would be if the gov. failed and we lost our SSD. After that would be, tornado, fire, or a nuke.

We have prepped as best we can, have some stored items. We could get by without elect. it would be hard but could be done. I biggest problem would be getting water. We are on community water and if elect. is down in that area so would water be down. We don't have a well and can't get one dug. I guess if worse comes to worse we could drive one. Water has a pretty high table here.


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## treesonggal (May 4, 2006)

For us, in no particular order, it would be:

Tornado - first one to be here in two years that I've been here went over us last fall. Destroyed a mobile home five miles away and did other damage nearby but, only one tree came down here.

Hyper-inflation - We live on a fixed income with occassional extra money from scrap metal sales, Ebay or yard sales. We're not putting my car on the road this year and eating more soup or beans and rice.

Illness-Hospitalization - George's heath is declining and he should be on oxygen now but his insurance (county health plan) doesn't cover it. He doesn't go on Medicare until September. His doctor gives him his Advair which also isn't covered by insurance plan. It's $250 for each disk!

We're prepared for power outages and could easily go without internet if it comes to that. We seldom ever go anywhere so driving even less won't bother us if it comes to that. We're fortunate to have nearly two year's worth of preps but a tornado would take them in a second. Guess that root cellar/storm shelter should be our next priority!

We have this place up for sale and want to move to the Upper Peninsula but absolutely nothing is selling around here so we're not too hopeful.

When it comes down to it, we do what we can given our circumstances and hope and pray for the best - whatever that may be.


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## snowhawkwoman (Apr 15, 2008)

I'm well prepared for "temporary" disasters, like tornadoes which go through our state on a pretty regular basis from April until July.
Long term, I'm pretty well set for anything. I have a house and 20 acres and am working on a second house that will be "off the grid"........small but fine for just me. I am an herbalist and am very familiar with edible plants in my area.
I've started my orchard, have a well stocked basement, and have a private lake (4 acres) which I will be restocking later this spring.
Biggest concern.......fresh water........if for some reason I can't get it from the rural water district........I do have a pump and well, but the water needs to be treated, so I am studying ways to do that.
I think at this point, economics will be pretty good for me as far as bartering for my needs. I currently don't "work" but live by trade and selling items that I make. Hopefully, in an economic down turn, this will keep me going.
My current "preparedness" project is the purchasing of heirloom seeds, and storage of same.


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## LvDemWings (Sep 11, 2005)

I've broken mine down into likely, highly possible and possible.

Likely:
Winter Storm
Loss of income
Power disruption (other than winter)

Highly possible:
Chemical accident
Fuel shortage

Possible:
terrorist attack
pandemic
civil unrest


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## stranger (Feb 24, 2008)

fuel shortage with civil unrest, and the civil unrest may not be likely amoung these sheeple


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## PyroDon (Jul 30, 2006)

We deal with SHTF every day 
power outages, sick kids , fire, flood , no money .
Its just life 
We deal with it


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## mamagoose (Nov 28, 2003)

Shinsan, I've tasted that vegemite, hope I'm not insulting you all, but yuk! Thought my Marine son was joking around with me after his trip to Australia that everyone there eats that stuff.

The idea of thinking in levels or most likely emergencies/situations is really good.

We are basically prepared for our possible current times scenarios, providing there is fuel available and DH maintains his job. We have a gravity tank normally full + drinking water stocked in glass jars in the event our water pumping generator goes out, providing we can get it fixed or replaced within a few days. We are not reliant on electricity, so could go a few days if the inverter went bad. DH has a chainsaw and tractor to remove obstructions from the road or plow if necessary. Might need snowshoes.

In the event of natural disasters - We always have enough food and don't have to run out to the store when a storm is coming. Tornado is unlikely, but more likely just strong winds here on our hillside. Forest fire very possible - dependant upon township fire department. I've always thought enough rain could cause a mudslide and mess with our house/foundation. I don't think we can prepare for that either. Now that New Madrid fault could see some real damage even up here. Drought - have one pond now that has been pretty low in recent years, but not accessible to all animals. Only wet weather springs on the property. Need gutters on the barns for collection, maybe a cistern. In a drought they aren't going to help, but would save on fuel to pump water. Need another (bigger) pond. Has anyone ever tied tarps to trees (higher at one end) with a barrel below to collect rainwater? Need tarps and clean barrels.

WORST CASE 
Job loss - totally not prepared. If this happens, there will be economic collapse. Unless he is replaced by a corporation relative or other cronie, his should be one of the last to go. Who will pay the mortgage? buy grain? food we can't grow? other incidentals? I don't understand how the financial market, value of paper money, deeds, liens, taxes, etc. would be affected in such times considering our current population. Does anyone?

Further economic collapse (and we stay in the house, regardless of mortgage arrearage) - If natural gas is rationed along with electricity, then this affects our refrigeration, cooking and hot water, as we rely on an allotment from the natural gas well on our property which the gas company maintains. If necessary I can cook/heat water outside with cast iron, but I'm working on DH to put as a backup, a wood cookstove on the back porch he is building this summer. We can sleep by the fireplace in the living room if necessary, although it was built mainly for aesthetics. It was all I could do to talk DH into storing the TV antenna (using dish now) vs. throwing it out when he was working on the roof the other day. He's a trasher, I'm a stasher.

Good news is that DH has decided to get a farm diesel tank which will run the generator and tractor for awhile at a time. Our luck it would be near empty when things go bad. Haven't convinced him to put up solar panels solely for pumping water and deep well pump yet. Maybe he's feeling a need for exercise carrying water. I have bleach stocked if needed for water. Need iodine, maybe filter. He has chainsaw parts and fuel. We have plenty of wood.

Currently I don't can much food because I work 3 days a week and do well enough to keep a summer garden and now my little greenhouse, but I keep store-bought food stocked enough for the two of us. I think we could get by 6 months easy on what's in the house, but if our two sons showed up at the door there's only half that much. I'm in the process of buying some extra "cheap" food that we don't normally eat, as we are accustomed to eating whole grains and no preservatives, but which I can afford extra now. Then if we find we don't need it for an emergency after so long, I'll just donate it. I know how to make just about anything from scratch and have had great success with whole grain flours. (Must keep yeast stocked.) For a long run I need to consider some wheat/oats for human consumption. I have a small grain mill, wishing for a heavy duty one. I keep enough seeds to plant a canning garden. Have canning and garden tools, plastic and gloves. I still don't know what to do about backup refrigeration. A fruit cellar is in our future, but not until at least next year. FIL has one and within a no-fuel distance if no one shoots our horses. Have horse and buggy, backpacks, ss books, and first-aid supplies current. Need (mountain) bicycles. Our livestock could live without purchased grain, but we would have to reduce our breeding stock numbers in order for them to have enough forage throughout the winter. Hay could be an issue. We normally make what we need on FIL's place. Don't know if he keeps spare parts, + the fertilizer and fuel issues.

All in all, we would survive anything short of a nuclear disaster (which we haven't even considered preparing for) long enough to get through a winter, although we might awaken to find the mortgage company, their successor and/or county auditor on our doorstep changing the locks. Couldn't an economic collapse be considered a war? Wars are about power and acquisitioning land. The wealthy would own our land again free and clear. What is it that I am smelling?


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## pickapeppa (Jan 1, 2005)

The S is htf. We just did our annual tax time rebudget check in. Prices have completely eaten away at our earnings, and now we're in stage one of the cutbacks. With every increase in gas/food, we'll have to cut back more and more.

Gas is now our next biggest expense next to the mortgage payment. Three years ago, it was about the same cost as our food budget.

I figure by the end of the year, we'll have a good idea of which way this is going to go for us.

If it gets as high as they're now forecasting, my husband's commute to work will cost as much as our mortgage.

It appears we've hit our breaking point on gas/food increases. I'm so glad I started those seeds earlier this year. That gut feeling came on and for once I took it seriously.


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## PyroDon (Jul 30, 2006)

pickapeppa said:


> The S is htf. We just did our annual tax time rebudget check in. Prices have completely eaten away at our earnings, and now we're in stage one of the cutbacks. With every increase in gas/food, we'll have to cut back more and more.
> 
> Gas is now our next biggest expense next to the mortgage payment. Three years ago, it was about the same cost as our food budget.
> 
> ...


well to be honest we'd be doing good if it werent for paying between 1000-$1200 a month in various insurance  I'd rather be giving the money to Capone at least he'd take care of those who paid


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## pickapeppa (Jan 1, 2005)

PyroDon said:


> well to be honest we'd be doing good if it werent for paying between 1000-$1200 a month in various insurance  I'd rather be giving the money to Capone at least he'd take care of those who paid


Lol. I guess he's got one up on Uncle Sam and his IRS thugs.


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## bajiay (Apr 8, 2008)

Here in rural Montana, my biggest worry is Nukes. We have Missle Silos all over the place. Guess if something happens I should just put a big red X on the roof!
We could possibly have a flood, if we ever got any rain. There are creeks on both sides of the house. Another BIG worry here is FIRE. Had a lot of major fires around here last summer sparked by the power lines. I didn't have renters insurance at the time. I went out and got it! If you have a fire, more than likely around here, by the time the fire dept. comes, you will have lost everything. Our in town response time is 15-20 min. and we live 30 min. from town. Oh well. Guess it is just stuff!


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## PrettyPaisley (May 18, 2007)

Post-election riff raff, increasing prices of fuel and shortage of food. I'd also like to raise my young daughter to see storing food and supplies as "normal" and not to rely on the local grocery store or heaven forbid, the gov't. Setting her up and teaching her to survive by her own efforts after I'm gone is my greatest motivation.


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## Shinsan (Jul 11, 2006)

Mamagoose, most Aussie kids taste vegemite when they are still babies, and grow up with it. For anybody from 'outside' it is a not-always-easy aquired taste.
I,ve just changed my prep regime to a combination of bulk storage and use-by-the-month barrels, each of which will contain a jar of 'the black stuff'. lol


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## Chickengirl (Mar 16, 2008)

vegemite with butter on Saos is a staple snack here 

SHTF?


Fuel prices/availablilty

Long term/permanent power outages.

Drought

in that order


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## hotzcatz (Oct 16, 2007)

I think most non-Australian folks put too much vegemite on and use it like peanut butter. A friend gave me some on a cracker where the vegemite was a real thin layer and it was much more edible that way.

We have a whole selection of disasters to prepare for it is hard to pick which one first. 

Our main prep problem is just sheer isolation. We are roughly 2,500 miles away from much of anything else so our supply lines are rather long. Also about 90+ percent of everything in the state is shipped in. Our industry is tourists, they get shipped in, too! Last week two of our airlines failed and we lost 40% of the airline seats for awhile. They are adding more seats, but until then our industry is crippled as well as our supply of everything else shipped in by air. The long supply chain can be affected by lack of fuel to fly airplanes, airlines going bankrupt and dock strikes so even the barges aren't running. Of course, if the tourists aren't showing up then the barges of stuff don't need to show up either since nobody will be able to afford to buy anything anyway. Even if folks don't directly work in the tourist industry they will be affected by someone who does.

We have hurricanes. Those take out the power grid, throw trees onto the roads, tear roofs off of houses and the usual hurricane tantrum sort of damages. That can last for several weeks or more depending on the hurricane.

We have earthquakes. The bridge is still out from the last one which was over a year ago although we have a temporary bridge next to it. In many sections of the island there is only one road with no alternate routes and of course that's where the bridge is out. Half the harbor is still unusable from the docks being damaged by the earthquake, too. We only have two harbors on this island so that limits the amount of barges which can come in. They've been trying to start a forestry industry around here but not being able to ship stuff out was one of the problems they had.

Since they've tried to start a forestry industry we now have to prep for forest fires. The trees grow right up next to the only highway and we have very little fire fighting capacity on this island. I can imagine a huge forest fire with no evacuation routes. How does one prep for that? A big hole in the ground with scuba gear?

There is also VOG which is volcanic fog. Elevated sulpher levels and you aren't supposed to breathe it for long, but that was last week and this week the wind is blowing it another direction. That big hole in the ground with scuba gear is looking better and better! I don't anticipate actual lava at my location because of terrain but some parts of the island do have to worry about lava flows.

Flooding we had earlier this year. Forty days of rain and it was wet everywhere. We now have a trench across the back of the house so the next big rain/flood will go around and not flood under the house.

I think the next actual scenario will be economic, though. The tourists don't have the money to take Hawaii vacations much anymore, they are all staying closer to home. There have been a lot of small businesses closing and going bankrupt, as the economy sours the folks will start leaving. If we lose twenty percent of our income then we will also lose about twenty percent of our population. It doesn't show up in our unemployment numbers, though, since many folks go to the mainland when the the job market gets real tight around here.

Landslides. Those happen frequently and the County road crew is really good about clearing the (only) road. However we should have some preps so waiting the several hours for the road to be cleared will be more comfortable. Generally everyone just chats while waiting.

Listing possible disasters is depressing, I think I'll go figure out what to plant in the garden next. That at least seems somewhat hopeful.


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## Guest (Apr 23, 2008)

I am maintaining my "nothing in particular but everything in general" philosophy of prepping. Life is uncertain, even widly improbable scenarios can sometimes come off (think big lotteries), and nearly every scenario shares about 90% of all preps in common so if you've got that covered you're good to go for nearly anything.

Living in Florida like I do hurricanes are a given. Got hit by two of them in 2004 and were projected to be hit by two more that same season but missed. I may never see so many strikes in one season again in my lifetime or it may happen this year. It's a crapshoot every year.

Of course Growing Old is the one scenario that is a virtual certainty to occur short of sudden death so it is the one that we should all be prepping against no matter what else we do.

If I had to choose a scenario that I find to be the most likely to occur it is the very one we are experiencing right now - the Slow Decline. A gradual slide downards in many areas but primarily economic. There will be ebbs and flows so that for periods of time greater or lesser in duration things will get better, but overall when measured by the decade it will be a slow, gradual decline. Income will not keep up with expenses just as we are seeing it happen now. The purchasing power of the dollar grows smaller with every passing year. I don't look at this as a year to year thing, but rather decade to decade. As a part of our general lifestyle we are working against that very scenario and have been for many years now.

.....Alan.


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