# The world as we know it will end in 17 hours.



## Darren (May 10, 2002)

Read the report based on a modern day Carrington event.

http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/57/25/46891645.pdf


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## Pam6 (Apr 9, 2009)

Well, hopefully this stupid migraine will be gone before the world falls apart in 17 hours!


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## AverageJo (Sep 24, 2010)

Pam... Everyone knows migranes and computer screens don't work well together. Get some rest.


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## mnn2501 (Apr 2, 2008)

Darren said:


> Read the report based on a modern day Carrington event.
> 
> http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/57/25/46891645.pdf


If the world is ending is 17 hours I have better things to do than read a 69 page technical report about it.
:smack

lets see, you posted that at 4PM so that means 9AM tomorrow. I better let them know I maybe late for work.


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## InTownForNow (Oct 16, 2008)

mnn2501 said:


> If the world is ending is 17 hours I have better things to do than read a 69 page technical report about it.
> :smack


really.
can we get a summary?


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## Ruby (May 10, 2002)

Reading that would give me a migrane.


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## Darren (May 10, 2002)

Ruby said:


> Reading that would give me a migrane.


I'll probably skim through it. The thing that got my attention enough to search and find the report was the map contained in the report that was posted on another website that showed the government's thoughts on the areas where the real social disorder was going to happen. 

As usual I don't think the feds really have a clue. It is interesting from the point of view of how the feds may react, if they can.


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## Texasdirtdigger (Jan 17, 2010)

Pfffft. I fixed dh his favorite dinner......I think I'll let him enjoy that....before I tell him about this.


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## Sawmill Jim (Dec 5, 2008)

Darn and the wife just baked me a cake . I'll have to stay up all night eating it can't risk it going to waste :awh:


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## bourbonred (Feb 27, 2008)

I think it would be a good document to keep for research on EMP. It seems to be very well documented


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## logbuilder (Jan 31, 2006)

I agree with Bourbonred. I looked at it but did not look at it in detail. I did save it to my folder of PDFs for interesting info. I'll read it later. I'm interested in the worst cast situation they speak of. Can probably learn something or other.


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## Darren (May 10, 2002)

Reading some of it brought up the term social vulnerability index. That's a new one on me. Following one of the references took me to state maps of the counties showing their vulnerability to environmental disasters. The maps are not related to a Carrington event which is related in part to ground conductivity. In short, if you're in a northern latitude in an area with high ground conductivity and high voltage power lines that extend for long distances, forget having power if we esentially get EMPed by the Sun via a Carrington event. The really interesting part was seeing something in a public document for the first time stating power might be out for over a year due to the inability of getting large transformers. I always knew that potential existed. I never knew the government was aware of it.

The allocation of new transformers would be a political issue. That's a big heads up for those that live in rural areas without a very large metropolitan area nearby.

Back to the social vulnerability maps, you can find them at the link. Just remember those are based on something other than a Carrington event. For some areas, flooding could be the reason for the high hazard. Other factors would apply to other areas.

http://webra.cas.sc.edu/hvri/products/sovi2009_maps.aspx

"What is Social Vulnerability?

Generally defined, vulnerability is the potential for loss of life or property due to hazards. The hazards-of-place model (Cutter 1996) combines the biophysical vulnerability (physical characteristics of hazards and environment) and social vulnerability to determine an overall place vulnerability. Social vulnerability is represented as the social, economic, demographic, and housing characteristics that influence a community&#8217;s ability to respond to, cope with, recover from, and adapt to environmental hazards."


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## Farmerwilly2 (Oct 14, 2006)

It's nice to be the low man sometimes.


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## mamaof3peas (Oct 8, 2009)

So basically rural counties are high risk??


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## Valmai (Sep 29, 2004)

Time check
17 hours are long gone so I guess the end of the world doesn't feel a whole lot different from "not the end of the world"?


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## oldmanriver (Aug 1, 2004)

That's a long time when you are having trouble breathing .


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## Darren (May 10, 2002)

mamaof3peas said:


> So basically rural counties are high risk??


I don't think it's that simple. The report and some of the analytical methodology it refers to opens up an entirely new way of looking at things for those interested in emergency preparedness. 

I noticed the area where I live is rated as subject to the highest risk. It is rural but because of the flood potential it's obvious why it was rated that way. From personal experience and what I've read about the 1985 flood of record plus a couple of government reports, I know the area is unprepared and justifies a high risk classification.

The report that focuses on a Carrington event classifies the social disorder risk which is interesting in that no one is going to be doing much traveling following a Sun caused EMP.

Just being rural doesn't necessarily equate to high risk. It would take an understanding of the electrical grid in your area, the location of power plants, and what will eventually be a government decision on how to prioritize the order of restoring electrical power to know how much risk you face.

A big part can be inferred by the events following Katrina. One of the major issues will be restoring transportation. The large transformers that will be destroyed are very long lead items. AFAIK, there is only one factory in the US that makes them. Normally those are ordered a year in advance for a new power plant. After a Carrington event of the magnitude last seen in the 1850s, I suspect some areas won't have power restored for several years.

Many of the transformers mentioned in the report are too large to be transported on a highway. I haven't read what will happen to railroads once they're "blasted" by a Carringtom EMP. I do know modern diesel electric railroad engines have microprocessor controls which weren't around in the 1850's.

The two factories that build those engines are both located in northern latitudes. It's an interesting chain of cascading events to think about. The more you think about it, the more complex it gets. The report opens up a new area at least for me. 

We were lucky in that the 1859 Carrington event preceeded the development of the electrical grid including the first beginnings of electrification of the US and the electric current war between Westinghouse and Edison.

"During the century and a half [following the 1859 Carrington event], the growth of the electric power industry, the development of telephone and radio communications, and a growing dependence on space-based communications and navigation systems, the vulnerability of modern society and its technological infrastructure to space weather has increased dramatically. 

Leading experts on geomagnetic storms state that potential effects from major geomagnetic storms on the U.S. power grid could persist for multiple years and in turn, &#8213;could pose the risk of the largest natural disaster that could affect the United States.&#8214; (U.S. House Homeland Security Committee, 2009)." 


"*The Carrington Event of 1859* 

The most severe space weather event recorded in history is the Carrington Event of 1859. From 28 August to 4 September 1859, auroral displays, often called the northern or southern lights, spanned several continents and were observed around the world. A British amateur astronomer, Richard Carrington, recorded the solar outburst, a white-light flare, which was verified independently by Richard Hodgson in London. According to modern experts, the auroras witnessed were actually two intense geomagnetic storms. Across the world, telegraph networks experienced disruptions and outages as a result of the currents generated by the geomagnetic storms. In addition to disturbing the telegraph networks, operators in various locations disconnected batteries from their systems and used the current generated by the aurora to send messages (NAS, 2008). *The economic costs associated with a catastrophic event similar to that of the Carrington Event could measure in the range of several trillion dollars *(U.S. House Homeland Security Committee, 2009). "

I can't imagine getting through the same type event today and only seeing several trillion dollars when major cities will be uninhabitable for possibly years. In New York alone much of the subway system will flood. The death and destruction will start the process seen in the television series that explored how fast decay sets in for man made structures. We'll also still see the normal nature caused disasters from which there will be no recovery like we see normally.

The other issue is that nuclear power plants were not designed to remain in safe shutdown for the long period imposed by a Carrington event. Once the fuel for the emergency diesel generators is gone, the transporation network won't be available to make deliveries to many of them.

Today we're so used to modern communications we don't realize how dependent we are. Virtually everything in modern life is based on it. Now imagine that's gone along with the ability to coordinate any kind of disaster relief or reconstruction.

On the plus side areas in southern latitudes might survive largely intact and provide the basis for reconsrtuction of the rest of the country, That assumes the Carrington event of 1859 was a maximum probable event.


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## Texasdirtdigger (Jan 17, 2010)

9:00 a.m. on the nose here....How's everyone doing?


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## viggie (Jul 17, 2009)

Still here. I am to the point of wishing the world would just end and get it over with. It's the waiting that kills you!


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## Tracy Rimmer (May 9, 2002)

9:10. It's raining here. Computer is still working... internet is still live... radio is playing.... DH is on a conference call, so I'm assuming the phone system is still up and running.

Meh.


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## Ohio dreamer (Apr 6, 2006)

Vigilant20,

:bouncy::bouncy::bouncy::bouncy::bouncy:

Glad I'm not the only one that thought that!


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## chickenslayer (Apr 20, 2010)

False alarm


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## Texasdirtdigger (Jan 17, 2010)

It figures. The world is supposed to end and I am on the HT forum!


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## InvalidID (Feb 18, 2011)

It's only 8am here. Should I still worry? LOL


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## Darren (May 10, 2002)

Think about what the seventeen hours may allow you to do if there is another Carrington event of the same magnitude as 1859. Obviously people on a business trip may not be able to get home. That includes over the road truckers. At some point, within probably a few days, telephone land lines will start to go dead if they survive the initial impact. Many radio stations will last only as long as their emergency generators have fuel, if they have generators. The world will become a quieter place in many repsects.

The constant flow of information will be gone. That is probably one of the best reasons to acquire a good battey powered shortwave radio. We live in an age of instant information. After a Carrington event, that will rapidly dwindle.

I'm curious if there is any research that may enable predicting something like this. If not, slightly more than seventeen hours is all the time we get before we're faced with a much different life and future.


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## Wags (Jun 2, 2002)

Those maps are interesting. Not surprised to see my county at med-low in both counties. But was surprised at some of the other counties scoring - including a county we were considering moving too. And for some reason it doesn't look like they took volcanoes into the equation, unless they figure the population in the path is too low to bother about.


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## InvalidID (Feb 18, 2011)

Wags said:


> Those maps are interesting. Not surprised to see my county at med-low in both counties. But was surprised at some of the other counties scoring - including a county we were considering moving too. And for some reason it doesn't look like they took volcanoes into the equation, unless they figure the population in the path is too low to bother about.


 You know I just commented to the wife last night how odd I thought it was that while the area around Mt. Rainer is heavily populated, the area around Mt Hood is not. Kinda interesting to me.

If Hood ever decided to blow it's top Portland would be in a world of hurt. Not for the obvious smoke and ash reasons, but because they get all their drinking water from there. Wonder if that's on the maps...


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## SkizzlePig (May 14, 2006)

I don't necessarily subscribe to "future disaster in _nn_ hours", I generally think its akin to fortune telling. How can anyone, even the best educated and most knowledgable among us really know the minute something is going to shakedown. So, I came into this thread with more of a circus sideshow curiosity. That said, DARREN! You're a genius! 

The gold in this thread is "Social Vulnerability". I had no idea that counties and communities were rated in this way. Well, I knew FEMA does these kinds of ratings, but I'd never found one ... and this one is really solid.

The wisdom from this thread should lead each one of us to find out our counties vulnerability rating and find out why it's rated that way. Then ... solve it for you and your family.

My brother was chatting with a FEMA volunteer recently, who summed up the minimum disaster response triage that FEMA uses. Here it is ... as best I remember:
1. State Capitals - Continuation of the government
2. Major Metros - Protection of the most life for those as greatest risk
3. Concentric circles out from the metros


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## Texasdirtdigger (Jan 17, 2010)

Darren -I saved this document. 
I do appreciate being educated about this scenairo. I was totaly in the dark, concerning this possibility.
Thank you.


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## Darren (May 10, 2002)

Unlikely Farmer said:


> I don't necessarily subscribe to "future disaster in _nn_ hours", I generally think its akin to fortune telling. How can anyone, even the best educated and most knowledgable among us really know the minute something is going to shakedown. So, I came into this thread with more of a circus sideshow curiosity. That said, DARREN! You're a genius!
> 
> The gold in this thread is "Social Vulnerability". I had no idea that counties and communities were rated in this way. Well, I knew FEMA does these kinds of ratings, but I'd never found one ... and this one is really solid.
> 
> ...


Believe me, I'm not a genius. I will "worry" something way beyond what many would set still for when it gets my interest. This topic leads to all sort of interesting information. 

FEMA abandoning the rural areas to concentrate on high population areas seems crazy but in one case that is what it did to look at WV and other nearby states to Washington D.C. One of the WV cabinet level schemers sucked up a lot of federal money planning for a mass evacuation from Washington D.C.

That's fine except it won't happen. 

For most living in rural areas, this tells you that in the future, don't plan on FEMA riding in on a white horse to save the day after a Carrington event or any disaster covering most of the nation. That could be good or bad. It depends on your outlook and planning. 

It could be good if you had concerns about supplies being taken by order of the national government. The reality is a Carrington event would reduce the federal government to a situation comparable to a preschooler running around astride a broom imagining it's a horse.

All the high tech stuff will be gone and eventually inoperable with the grid gone for years at best.

It also points out that no matter how much food you store, it won't be enough. Survivors will be those who can raise and preserve their own food.

I'm sure there will be some islands where some nick knacks of modern society remain until the final results of the cascade play out. Again that could be good or bad. Personally I wouldn't want to be near one of those because of the potential attraction to refugees and the potential use as a power base by "officials."

There's a lot of food for thought as you read through the list of cascading events. Much of it has been discussed before. Some of it hasn't.

The inability of the country to quickly manufacture the large transformers needed to repair the grid and the possible loss or reduction of rail capacity to move those transformers is something that wasn't generally known before. 

The potential impact on nuclear power plants is something that simply wasn't credible before Fukishima. That's not the case now.


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## hintonlady (Apr 22, 2007)

Although I didn't read the link I'm guessing the 17 hours is the time after a potential shtf for issues to develop, NOT 17 hours after the first post last night. :rotfl:


From your cliffs notes it seems very intersting. Wonder if I'll have time to read it...


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## cnichols (Jan 5, 2010)

My husband said .. "Darn, we musta slept through it!" LOL


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## stanb999 (Jan 30, 2005)

Jeeze...

Guy's this is a posting about the governments view of How the S will HTF. If a large solar storm happens.


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## Darren (May 10, 2002)

hintonlady said:


> Although I didn't read the link I'm guessing the 17 hours is the time after a potential shtf for issues to develop, NOT 17 hours after the first post last night. :rotfl:
> 
> 
> From your cliffs notes it seems very intersting. Wonder if I'll have time to read it...


I haven't read the entire report. It never fails to amaze me how much padding you see in some government reports. I got distracted looking at some of the things referenced and then went looking for more info on the internet on the other subjects. The social vulnerability index is one of them. It's not exactly reassuring that the government knows it will not be able to control the population in urban centers.

If nothing else remember that *if you hear news about scientists seeing a Carrington event, you have about seventeen hours from the first time of observation to finish any prepping and make family decisions requiring relocation or a return to home.* That means if you plan on bugging out, you have seventeen hours from the time of first observation to get out of Dodge and get to your planned destination. 

If someone in China is the first to spot and report the event and you don't hear about it untill waking in the morning you may have already lost most of the time left before things go black.

As they say, the best laid plans of mice and men ...


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## time (Jan 30, 2011)

hintonlady said:


> Although I didn't read the link I'm guessing the 17 hours is the time after a potential shtf for issues to develop, NOT 17 hours after the first post last night. :rotfl:
> 
> 
> From your cliffs notes it seems very intersting. Wonder if I'll have time to read it...


The title timeline comes from The Carrington Event.

"The Carrington Event storm took 17 hours and 40 minutes to travel from the Sun to Earth, at a speed of 2380 km/s (Lakhina et al., 2005)."


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## oldasrocks (Oct 27, 2006)

FEMA won't be coming to save us? I rerally don't see a downside to that.


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## texican (Oct 4, 2003)

I sped red thru it, and didn't see the 17 hours part... of course, since I was past the 17 hour deadline, I read the whole thing in two minutes!

It would be nice to have 17 hours notice.... I could faraday all my important stuff...


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## hintonlady (Apr 22, 2007)

17 hours is a TON of time to run to town and tear the stores apart before the craziness sets in. 17 hours until it gets messy. How long before that will the masses catch on?


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## Darren (May 10, 2002)

texican said:


> I sped red thru it, and didn't see the 17 hours part... of course, since I was past the 17 hour deadline, I read the whole thing in two minutes!
> 
> It would be nice to have 17 hours notice.... I could faraday all my important stuff...


That's the point. If you look at the report and figure out how a Carrington event will affect your area, you can make some informed decisions and do some preplanning. If you wait for it to happen before trying to figure out what to do, chances are it will be too late. Most folks can't begin to conceive of the electricity going off and staying off for months much less years. 

Those conditioned to think the government will have the answers obviously missed a big part of the Katrina lesson. A Carrington event will probably render the government irrelevant. 

FEMA won't be able to mobilize anything. Their priority of throwing resources at major metropolitan areas which will instantly become uninhabitable misses the opportunity to establish a reconstruction and rehabilitation process focused on critical national assets.

Sad to say there will be a large human die off. Anyone in the wrong area has a very small chance of surviving. Those that can revert back to 19th and early 20th century self-sufficiency have the best chances.


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## hintonlady (Apr 22, 2007)

Still wondering about the mortgage after everything comes back "online". : )

Guess the small town bankers would have to survive, they would have to go to the court and hope the judge survived and hope the sheriff survived to serve the papers. Of course they would all have to walk to the proceedings though. lol

I'm sure taxes will survive though. (that isn't funny is it?)


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## Darren (May 10, 2002)

hintonlady said:


> Still wondering about the mortgage after everything comes back "online". : )
> 
> Guess the small town bankers would have to survive, they would have to go to the court and hope the judge survived and hope the sheriff survived to serve the papers. Of course they would all have to walk to the proceedings though. lol
> 
> I'm sure taxes will survive though. (that isn't funny is it?)


Without electrical power, money in any form is useless except to take advantage of someone who believes the event is a short term blip by trading your pieces of paper for something that has real value. 

Government is going to grind to a halt when the basic infrastructure closes down. Fuel is going to be hard if not impossible to come by. Nobody will be traveling. Water won't flow through the water mains. It goes on and on.

A lot of jobs will evaporate over night. There simply won't be a need for many jobs to be done or they simply can't be done for one reason or another.

This country and it's infrastructure was built over hundreds of years. Some of the things that will be lost cannot be created as they were originally. Without the ongoing maintenance that maintains that infrastructure we're facing a giant step backward in capability and capacity. 

We no longer have the capability of producing large forgings in this country. What that means is that the core, the rotor, for the revolving part of large electrical generators cannot be produced or sometimes repaired in this country. 

One power plant experienced a weird event that warped the rotor of a generator. The conditions that caused that could possiblly occur during a Carrington event. The plant operators did not know it happened until the plant shut down for an outage for a few months and then found a severe vibration when they tried to startup. 

The rotor had to be removed and sent almost half way across the country for repair. That won't be possible after a Carrington event that takes out the electrical grid and the transportation network.

We take so many things for granted it's difficult to work through all of the ramifications.


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## Joel_BC (Nov 10, 2009)

Very interesting report. The world as we know it did not end 17 hours after the OP was posted. So, other than an interesting and informative report, I haven't got a clue what the OP actually meant for us on this HT forum.

However, there is significant sun-spot and coronal-discharge activity going on now & in the last few days. People interested in that can go to this Youtube vid:
[ame]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_LAIokzpwfc[/ame]

Could be some Northern Lights in the next few days... might not be visible where I live as cloud/snow-flurries have moved in since this morning.


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## texican (Oct 4, 2003)

I think those taxes would be in the form of food, initially... later, something of value. Not paper currency.

I'd not want to be the mule riding circuit rider collecting taxes from folks starving to death...

Give me 17 hours and I can live like a king for a few years.... make a run into town with the trailer, and get tons of food and feed... stop by the hardware store and get them to deliver a trailer of goods to the house (I have credit there... have been told it's unlimited)... max out the cc's, checks for the rest... cash if need be...


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## jwal10 (Jun 5, 2010)

texican said:


> I think those taxes would be in the form of food, initially... later, something of value. Not paper currency.
> 
> I'd not want to be the mule riding circuit rider collecting taxes from folks starving to death...
> 
> Give me 17 hours and I can live like a king for a few years.... make a run into town with the trailer, and get tons of food and feed... stop by the hardware store and get them to deliver a trailer of goods to the house (I have credit there... have been told it's unlimited)... max out the cc's, checks for the rest... cash if need be...



Now that I know, I'll send the dopey neighbor to your house hoping he won't make it back. Course with you running to town who knows what you really have. Nope, I will stay right here and watch....James


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## therunbunch (Oct 5, 2009)

Wait!!! Oh.. no.. wait.. yep. I'm still here. 

I really do hope that if something happens that I'm caught completely and totally off-guard and we all die before we put 2 and 2 together. I'd like to just skip the anxiety attack part of it and get right to the end. KWIM?


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## texican (Oct 4, 2003)

jwal10 said:


> Now that I know, I'll send the dopey neighbor to your house hoping he won't make it back. Course with you running to town who knows what you really have. Nope, I will stay right here and watch....James


Betcha a nickel he wouldn't make it here in 17 hours!

Bet another nickel, no one, in a regular car would make it here (to the ol homestead), right now, period... we've been blessed with rain the last week, and some of those seemingly small water holes are 2' deep!

Oh, and town is walking distance, just in case! And I know a good part of all the folks tween here and there. I'd not dream of going in several other directions, though, as I know hardly any of those folks, and I'd be just another scruffy stranger walking by...


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## hintonlady (Apr 22, 2007)

therunbunch said:


> Wait!!! Oh.. no.. wait.. yep. I'm still here.
> 
> I really do hope that if something happens that I'm caught completely and totally off-guard and we all die before we put 2 and 2 together. I'd like to just skip the anxiety attack part of it and get right to the end. KWIM?


If it were just me I would ride it out like a cowboy on a bull. Talk about the biggest adrenalin ruch in your life. The sky would seem brighter, nature would be more colorful...the beautiful intensity. Maybe some lawn chairs on the roof for a good view and a few beers. You know how some people let go on a roller coaster and throw their hands up in the air? JUST like that.

Since I am a Momma though (and not so young and crazy anymore) it would be a little different.


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## Darren (May 10, 2002)

hintonlady said:


> If it were just me I would ride it out like a cowboy on a bull. Talk about the biggest adrenalin ruch in your life. The sky would seem brighter, nature would be more colorful...the beautiful intensity. Maybe some lawn chairs on the roof for a good view and a few beers. You know how some people let go on a roller coaster and throw their hands up in the air? JUST like that.
> 
> Since I am a Momma though (and not so young and crazy anymore) it would be a little different.


You're right in that some things would be much brighter. The night sky would amaze many people when everything is dark. If civilization regressses, it wouldn't be long for new generations to hear stories of moving pictures on screens, music coming from boxes and things that you could use to talk to others far away as we revert to oral history.

The ones at most risk will be those that are totally unaware that the power won't be coming back on and the water will never flow from the faucet again. It's interesting to contemplate the reactions when that realization sets in. It's even more interesting to think about a government that knows it's not only possible but probable and they're not doing anything about it.

Texican has the plan. When you hear Carrington event on the news as in being observed, you have seventeen hours or less to accomplish things you may never be able to do again in your life time.


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## hintonlady (Apr 22, 2007)

Darren said:


> Texican has the plan. When you hear Carrington event on the news as in being observed, you have seventeen hours or less to accomplish things you may never be able to do again in your life time.


17 hours, hmmmmm.

Just enough time to shop for extras and to stop at my favorite Mexican place for a pitcher of margarita. One pitcher and a straw just for me. Should take a few last hours. The hang over would be so darn bad I wouldn't care about shtf. 

Now that IS a plan! :dance:


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## acde (Jul 25, 2011)

God said not even his son knows when the end will come, It will come like a thief in the night. How does the Gov't know? or think they know? 14 min left here. LOL


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## Darren (May 10, 2002)

acde said:


> God said not even his son knows when the end will come, It will come like a thief in the night. How does the Gov't know? or think they know? 14 min left here. LOL


There's a difference between ending civilization as we know it and an extinction level event that ends mankind's sojourn on Earth as was the dinosaurs'. When you consider how many things you can choose to prep for, some we're probably not going to survive as a species. Others are survivable with preparations. Anyone that's lives in an area subject to flooding, hurricanes, tornadoes, etc. knows what they should do. Whether they do it ...

As far as I've found a Carrington event can't be predicted by science at this time unlike flooding and other weather related events. That is why just knowing about the possibility of a Carrington level event at least gives those families a last chance opportunity that many won't have.

For many, families will be split up with no way of knowing what's going on with the others separated by distance. Others will squander their supplies and the short term opportunity by not being aware of the fact that* when the power goes out, it may not be restored for as long as four to ten years in some areas according to the report.* That's a long time to set in a dark house waiting for the power to come back on.

Knowing that a Carrington level event has occurred is in many ways a literal blank check for those that know the implications. Texican figured it out PDQ.


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## acde (Jul 25, 2011)

since I am a single mom I will not be putting myself in harms way running to town to get any last minute supplies, or last 17 hr supplies. I guess that's another reason I prep now.


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## Darren (May 10, 2002)

acde said:


> since I am a single mom I will not be putting myself in harms way running to town to get any last minute supplies, or last 17 hr supplies. I guess that's another reason I prep now.


One of the things you will know depending on the timing is to not let your children go to school that day. Or get them out of school early. In some areas, families are going to be distraught just trying to get their children if they're somewhere far away.


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## acde (Jul 25, 2011)

Darren said:


> One of the things you will know depending on the timing is to not let your children go to school that day. Or get them out of school early. In some areas, families are going to be distraught just trying to get their children if they're somewhere far away.


Good point, thanks for the reminder.


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## Darren (May 10, 2002)

That's the beauty of HT. There is so much useful information here. Sometimes we get information overload. Prepping can actually lessen the chance of surviving for some. That's were the social vulnerability index comes in. 

If the government has paid the big bucks for something, why not use it? Spending money for a report doesn't necessarily mean it's worthwhile. That's where some skepticism needs to be exercised and the individual needs to do their own research.

I've always been surprised by where I'm lead when I chase a topic. The report on the Carrington event is no exception. Just the insight into FEMA was worth the time besides the insight on the potential for an X class solar flare.

I doubt Iran will try to launch an EMP attack on this country. I don't see that happening based on the past. Some folks here are already prepping for that. That's their choice. The potential of a Carrington event though, gets my attention.

HT is a fantastic information smorgasbord. Hopefully everyone will get the info they need for those times when it's essential.


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## acde (Jul 25, 2011)

Amazing how science can track a disaster, but can't do anything to stop it.


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## pancho (Oct 23, 2006)

17 hours.
I better look up my x-wife. Go see her. She has always been late for everything so I should have a few extra hours.


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## Hobbes (Apr 1, 2008)

17 hours from time of instrument observation. Probably 2-3 hours for scientists hemming and hawing over whether they should tell John Q. Public - but, not before all of them calling home and telling kin to batten down. Then (my guess), the .gov will want some padding time to move things/people around in place so when they drop the news on the public at least the cities don't burn down the first two or three days.


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## Guest (Feb 20, 2012)

Here is the Abstract and the Executive Summary from the report for those who don't want to read the entire thing.

ABSTRACT
The present paper considers prospects for a future global shock caused by an extreme geomagnetic storm and its effect on critical infrastructure for electrical power and satellite-enabled communications, navigation, and monitoring. Following a brief review of the phenomenon and selected risk assessment examples, the paper describes a &#8213;worst reasonable case&#8214; scenario, potential consequences, and the current state of efforts to mitigate vulnerabilities and consequences. Many such efforts are operational measures relying on adequate warning. In addition to operational and infrastructure hardening measures, mitigation opportunities exist in the form of international cooperation to address critical &#8213;bottlenecks&#8214; in the replacement of extra high-voltage transformers.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Over the last six years, natural hazards have caused catastrophic consequences across the globe. Tsunamis, hurricanes, flooding, earthquakes, and volcanic eruptions have led to hundreds of thousands of fatalities and billions of dollars in economic costs. Geomagnetic stormsâa type of space weatherâare much less frequent, but have the potential to cause damage across the globe with a single event. In the past, geomagnetic storms have disrupted space-based assets as well as terrestrial assets such as electric power transmission networks. Extra-high-voltage (EHV) transformers and transmission linesâbuilt to increase the reliability of electric power systems in cases of terrestrial hazardsâare particularly vulnerable to geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) caused by the disturbance of Earthâs geomagnetic field. The simultaneous loss of these assets could cause a voltage collapse and lead to cascading power outages. As a natural event whose effects are exacerbated by economic and technological developments, geomagnetic storms pose a systemic risk that requires both domestic and international policy-driven actions.

As part of the OECD Future Global Shocks project, this case study on geomagnetic storms was undertaken to identify the strengths, weaknesses, and gaps in current international risk management practices. The literature on geomagnetic storm risk assessments indicates that the state of the art for assessing the security risk from this type of event is still inchoate. There are examples of analyses that describe threat, vulnerability, and consequence, but they are not integrated, primarily because of the weakness in the threat analysis. The lack of valid risk assessments has limited risk mitigation efforts in many critical infrastructure sectors, as it is difficult to demonstrate the utility of investing in either hardening or operational mitigation efforts, especially if these investments reduce time and money spent in preparing for more common risks.

To explore the risk to the international community, this report presents a platform to discuss the risk of geomagnetic storms by describing a worst reasonable scenario and its risk factors. Our analysis identifies areas with EHV assets that are in vulnerable locations due to latitude and ground conductivity, and examines the first- and second-order consequences of an extreme storm, highlighting those consequences with an international impact such as scarcity of surplus EHV transformers and satellite communication signal degradation. In addition to exploring the expected economic consequences of a geomagnetic storm event, the report also assessed psychological consequence in the form of social unrest, behavioral changes and social vulnerability. The potential for international consequences if an extreme event occurs are high, although the severity of those consequences can be mitigated if the international community takes certain actions in advance, such as investing in additional geomagnetic storm warning systems.

Geomagnetic storms can be categorized as a global shock for several reasons: the effects of an extreme storm will be felt on multiple continents; the resulting damage to electric power transmission will require international cooperation to address; and the economic costs of a lengthy power outage will affect economies around the world. As a global shock event, a severe geomagnetic storm, although unlikely, could lead to major consequences for OECD governments.


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## Darren (May 10, 2002)

acde said:


> Amazing how science can track a disaster, but can't do anything to stop it.


Something can be done about it, but getting someone to spend the money to do it and then store the equipment is the issue. One plant has an extra main transfomer sitting along side the three main transformers that are in service. The bus from the generator to the transformers was designed so the extra transformer could be put in service easily.

That's an unusual arrangement. Now think about stockpiling those transformers which cost a million each thirty years ago. This is a picture of the Schnabel rail car that's used to move the transformers. You can get an idea of how much the transformer weighs by how many axles are on the rail car. There aren't many of these rail cars in existence. At one time I think only Westinghouse and GE owned them. 

Now you can understand why the report say the power in some areas may not be restored for four to ten years. I think that's an optimistic estimate.


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## pancho (Oct 23, 2006)

Every power plant I have ever worked in had extra transformers on site.
These were stored next to the ones in service. The spares could be put in service through switching already in place.
They did not have enough transformers to replace all of the working transformers.
If something or someone destroys the working transformers chances are the spare ones will be destroyed also. If it only damages a single transformer it can be bypassed and the spare used in a matter of minutes or less.


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## Darren (May 10, 2002)

pancho said:


> Every power plant I have ever worked in had extra transformers on site.
> These were stored next to the ones in service. The spares could be put in service through switching already in place.
> They did not have enough transformers to replace all of the working transformers.
> If something or someone destroys the working transformers chances are the spare ones will be destroyed also. If it only damages a single transformer it can be bypassed and the spare used in a matter of minutes or less.


If the country stockpiled spare main transformers, they would not be hooked to the grid. So they would not be damaged by the solar flare.


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## pancho (Oct 23, 2006)

Darren said:


> If the country stockpiled spare main transformers, they would not be hooked to the grid. So they would not be damaged by the solar flare.


Spare transformers in place are not hooked to the grid.


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## oldasrocks (Oct 27, 2006)

I have friends in Taiwan and they are a day ahead. I told them if the world ends call me so I have advance warning. This should give me 17 hrs plus 24 or 41 hrs to pray.


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## Darren (May 10, 2002)

oldasrocks said:


> i have friends in taiwan and they are a day ahead. I told them if the world ends call me so i have advance warning. This should give me 17 hrs plus 24 or 41 hrs to pray.


lol !!


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## Darren (May 10, 2002)

pancho said:


> Spare transformers in place are not hooked to the grid.


We're talking about the big transformers that bump the 20KV from the generators to the 220 KV to 345 KV sent out to the switchyard. Seems a liitle odd that the authors of the report didn't know about the transformers you're talking about. I think we're talking apples and oranges.


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## pancho (Oct 23, 2006)

Darren said:


> We're talking about the big transformers that bump the 20KV from the generators to the 220 KV to 345 KV sent out to the switchyard. Seems a liitle odd that the authors of the report didn't know about the transformers you're talking about. I think we're talking apples and oranges.


That is exactly what I am talking about.
I worked in some large power plants.
Spare transformers are kept right along side of the transformers in use.
They are maintained just like those in use. 
They are protected by switching.
If a problem happens and one transformer is damaged it is possible to close switches and put the spare in the place of the damaged one.

Don't know why the authors didn't know about them. Might be the authors were good at writing and less qualified about the subject they chose to write about. It happens too often.


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## farmboyJD (Jul 21, 2011)

oldasrocks said:


> I have friends in Taiwan and they are a day ahead. I told them if the world ends call me so I have advance warning. This should give me 17 hrs plus 24 or 41 hrs to pray.


You could move to Louisiana. They're 20 years behind the rest of the country. I can say that because I'm in a bordering state.


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## pancho (Oct 23, 2006)

farmboyJD said:


> You could move to Louisiana. They're 20 years behind the rest of the country. I can say that because I'm in a bordering state.


I am in a bordering state also and they say we are 20 years behind Louisiana.
I could die of old age before the world ended.


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## Darren (May 10, 2002)

pancho said:


> That is exactly what I am talking about.
> I worked in some large power plants.
> Spare transformers are kept right along side of the transformers in use.
> They are maintained just like those in use.
> ...


I'm still not sure we're talking about the same transformers. One of the problems mentioned in the report was the utilities not buying extra high voltage transformers. Those are the ones connected with bus duct which requires internal cooling. 

The only plant I saw that ordered an extra main transformer and put it place with the pit for the coolant if there was a rupture and the deluge piping for a fire was at Grand Gulf. There was a lot of out of the ordinary stuff done there including using stainless steel pipe for all of the floor drains including areas where there was absolutely no chance of radioactive runoff. Even they didn't buy an extra main transformer for each phase.

I also know none of the utilities involved with the SNUPPS project thought about making provisions for an extra main transformer much less buying an extra for each phase.


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## pancho (Oct 23, 2006)

Darren said:


> I'm still not sure we're talking about the same transformers. One of the problems mentioned in the report was the utilities not buying extra high voltage transformers. Those are the ones connected with bus duct which requires internal cooling.
> 
> The only plant I saw that ordered an extra main transformer and put it place with the pit for the coolant if there was a rupture and the deluge piping for a fire was at Grand Gulf. There was a lot of out of the ordinary stuff done there including using stainless steel pipe for all of the floor drains including areas where there was absolutely no chance of radioactive runoff. Even they didn't buy an extra main transformer for each phase.
> 
> I also know none of the utilities involved with the SNUPPS project thought about making provisions for an extra main transformer much less buying an extra for each phase.


New power plants will not be as likely to have spare transformers.
Older power plants all have them.
The cost of power plants can be cut by not buying spare parts. Older plants didn't have the supply lines the new ones have. 
No, they didn't have an extra transformer for each phase. One or possibly two were all they ever had. Just about every single one of them are still setting there unused to this day.
Not much to go wrong with transformers. That is one reason the new power plants may not have them. 
I worked in one power plant built in the 1930s. They have a spare transformer setting beside the mains outside of the plant and another setting in the switchyard. Neither one has ever been put into service. I did yearly test on them just like the mains in service.
Most swithcing yards also have spare transformers.

Now it is just cost savings. If something does not break down for 50-100 years they don't have it on site for spares. At one time they did.


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