# How bad is going to have to get......



## Oldcountryboy (Feb 23, 2008)

before the big trucking companies have to start shutting down? 

They was talking on the world news this evening about the supply and demand as china and india keeps growing. They said that $4. a gallon aint gonna look bad at all compared to what the price is gonna get up to if china and india's demand keeps growing. 

They stated with the prices getting so high that it will not be worth it to truck tomatoes from California to everywhere in the U.S. or to ship goods from the east coast toward the west coast and vise versa. Said people will have to rely on trading within their own community. Also mentioned that we will begin to see abandoned homes out in the country as people will be moving to the big cities where they can walk or ride a bike to work. (don't know what kind of work they would find if there's no trucking industry to ship it anywhere) 

With that thought in mind I got to thinking of how many people live on the this same square mile section that I live on. There's about 15 property owners who live out away from everyone else and then there's about 50 houses in a small housing development. Of all those people there are only two who make some of their living raising cattle. I'm the only one that I know of that raises a big garden and everyone else depends on a job in town which is at least 23 miles away to the nearest town. This little community that I live in just might become a ghost town! 

When I was growing up on this very same mile section there was only 6 residents here. Then they built the housing addition on the very corner of this mile section and then over the last 30 years other residents have developed. 

I might be looking forward to only having 6 residents once again because back then everyone knew each other and didn't care if you come over on the back of their property and done a little squirrel hunting or walked around on their creek and done a little fishing. People back then weren't selfish at all. Not like they are now days.


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## Lynne (May 10, 2002)

Oldcountryboy said:


> I might be looking forward to only having 6 residents once again because back then everyone knew each other and didn't care if you come over on the back of their property and done a little squirrel hunting or walked around on their creek and done a little fishing. People back then weren't selfish at all. Not like they are now days.


People back then showed enough respect for property owners to make sure that the owners were aware of and approved of them "coming over on the back of their property...". 

Common courtesy doesnât seem so common nowadays


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## sgl42 (Jan 20, 2004)

i expect china and india will continue to increase their oil consumption overall. If the US goes into a serious economic recession (which I expect), I will probably have a short term effect of decreasing oil consumption in China/India for a year or 18 months, but it will likely increase again after that.

Gas in only part of the cost of owning a car. Car payments, insurance, repairs, etc. Also, to give up driving so far, they'd have to find a job closer (doesn't sound likely), or sell their place (might be hard to do in many areas with the real estate and mortgage finance the way they are). 

Right now, many people are suddenly discovering that everyone else is also trying to trade in a recent vintage SUV for a more fuel efficient car, so the resale value of SUVs has plummeted, and new SUV sales have declined 20%.

So, most people have most of their costs pretty much "baked into the cake" already, and it won't be easy to get out. Most people will cut back expenses where they can. (Retail sales have been very weak for anything descretionary). Some will max out the credit cards. (Consumer debt levels have been rising.) Some will reach the end of the rope and be foreclosed on, or evicted, or lose the car, or file backruptcy.

I'd guess that a 23 mile commute alone isn't enough to get someone to sell, unless they were really stretching to buy the house/land to begin with. However, as all the other consumers in the economy cut back, there will be layoffs at retailers, construction companies, mortgage brokerages, etc. That will likely be the cause of people being forced to sell.

In silicon valley and LA, it's not unusual for people to have 1-1.5 hour commutes out to what were "affordable" (by CA standards anyway) bedroom communities. Gas prices are probably going to have a pretty big impact there.

As for trucking, lots of things won't make sense to truck any more. I'd guess the price of gas will be only part of the problem. I expect the bigger problem will be the decline in retail sales, as people are suddenly forced to become more cost conscious. 

I've been watching this slowly unfold for several years. The news media talks about how the real estate decline was "unexpected" -- it wasn't. Many people have been expecting it. It's just now that the consumer and the news media are waking up to the impact of interest rates being too low too long. I expect it's going to get fugly.

--sgl


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## virtualco (Feb 3, 2006)

Oldcountryboy, you bring up some interesting points. I for one think gasoline will get as high as five dollars a gallon before the end of the year. And as you predicted many people will move back into or closer to towns/cities because of the cost of gas. 

"Also mentioned that we will begin to see abandoned homes out in the country as people will be moving to the big cities where they can walk or ride a bike to work."

I have read here on this board of stories of working families that were 'barely' making it on their place in the country. And with the added insult of rising fuel cost I can't help but think that many of these people will have to sell out their dream of country living to make a more affordable move back to the city or to consider not moving to the country at all.

So your wait for the thinning out of those living in the country may not be long in coming. My prediction is for country property more than a gallon of gas away will start to drop in price.

From what I have been reading online, there are small trucking companies folding up already.


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## stranger (Feb 24, 2008)

the trucking companies don't care so long as they can pass the cost on to us the consumer.
i look for gas to be over six dollars a gal and we're getting just what we deserve, Americans have had plenty of wake up calls since 1972-73, but done nothing, just kept putting the same rich people in office that could care less about anything but their wallet. they kept bending over for the lobbyists and environmentalists . they wouldn't drill our own oil because it would disturbe the deer. we buillt a pipe line so japan could have oil.
we couldn't build any refineries as everyone wanted them, but not in their back yard. now we're growing food for gas instead of food to eat.
enjoy your fast ride to poverty.


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## fordy (Sep 13, 2003)

................This transformation we're going through is why Warren Buffett has invested heavily in RR stocks in the last couple of years . As fuel prices rise more and more perishable freight will begin to be shipped on the RR's because of the economies of scale dictate such . Concurrently , the use of trucks to haul individual loads from NY to LA is going to decrease significantly , and , the distances for truck delivery will be reduced until major trucking companies find a range of radius delivery distances that allows them to make a profit from a central distribution point . RR's are NOT efficient movers of freight when it comes to small tonnages like trucks , are , so a new model of intermodal storage and transport to the end user will be developed and implemented too accommodate the rising price of fuel . , fordy:clap:


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## fordy (Sep 13, 2003)

...............As an Addendum.....A prescient model already exists for this at ALLiance airport in Ft.Worth , tx . Here they have facilities for the largest Airfreight cargo planes , access by the RR's and truck freight as well . So , the new Airbus 380 in a cargo configuration will beable to off load it's maximum tonnage from say Europe , and then be reloaded for a return trip back to some other overseas destination . So , then, all truck freight deliveries will probably be 300 to 500 miles or less , vs 2,000 to 3,000 . , fordy


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## uyk7 (Dec 1, 2002)

> "Also mentioned that we will begin to see abandoned homes out in the country as people will be moving to the big cities where they can walk or ride a bike to work."


Reminds me of a conspiracy theory I read about in the 1980's: people will be "forced" to live in population centers/cities. People will be/are easier to control in population centers than they are out in the country. The idea was/is to get rid of all the small towns.


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## TNHermit (Jul 14, 2005)

you can bet china is getting ready to ship a bunch of stuff. This is the latest in "container" ships and it bigger than an aircraft carrier


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## crafty2002 (Aug 23, 2006)

fordy said:


> ...............As an Addendum.....A prescient model already exists for this at ALLiance airport in Ft.Worth , tx . Here they have facilities for the largest Airfreight cargo planes , access by the RR's and truck freight as well . So , the new Airbus 380 in a cargo configuration will beable to off load it's maximum tonnage from say Europe , and then be reloaded for a return trip back to some other overseas destination . So , then, all truck freight deliveries will probably be 300 to 500 miles or less , vs 2,000 to 3,000 . , fordy


I started a thread about the RR's and no one seemed to think it was a good idea. You are one of the people on HT that I respect nearly all your answers so it was nice seeing this post. 
I did say something about a tranfer spot near each large city but maybe I didn't make the point clear. I wasn't talking about a 50,000 pop. I meant a LARGE CITY. 
I think we will see that coming also. The RR's might be where us little people might should start buying like one pc. of stock a week or month, or???? But it won't be me because I know nothing about it, LOL.
Dennis


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## stanb999 (Jan 30, 2005)

fordy said:


> ...............As an Addendum.....A prescient model already exists for this at ALLiance airport in Ft.Worth , tx . Here they have facilities for the largest Airfreight cargo planes , access by the RR's and truck freight as well . So , the new Airbus 380 in a cargo configuration will beable to off load it's maximum tonnage from say Europe , and then be reloaded for a return trip back to some other overseas destination . So , then, all truck freight deliveries will probably be 300 to 500 miles or less , vs 2,000 to 3,000 . , fordy


Are you really trying to say air freight conserves oil??? Air freight will end as the price of fuel accelerates.


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## Gideon (Sep 15, 2005)

Will have to disagree with you about farmhouses becoming vacant. IMO, there will be more folks having to live in the country where they can grow their own food and become self sufficient. I was raised on a "tobacco road poor" dirt farm but we lived well and traded our goods for what we needed. We disced others fields, combined their crops, etc. and made it quite well. I am gearing up for just such a scenario right now for I feel real problems are looming ominously close. Do you think you will have a "city job" to go to??? wc


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## edcopp (Oct 9, 2004)

Home Grown Tomatos, might be a good business to be in. Could even do a U-Pick operation. Who knows? No shipping.:happy:


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## Ernie (Jul 22, 2007)

Oldcountryboy said:


> I might be looking forward to only having 6 residents once again because back then everyone knew each other and didn't care if you come over on the back of their property and done a little squirrel hunting or walked around on their creek and done a little fishing. People back then weren't selfish at all. Not like they are now days.


Just how old a country boy are you, because back when I was growing up people didn't cotton to others (even if they knew them) poaching on their land. My father didn't like it, my grandfather didn't like it, and there's even some evidence that might point to the fact that my great-great-great-grandfather didn't like it. (Cherokee Uprising, 1758)


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## Ernie (Jul 22, 2007)

And another question for the truckers out there ...

Why wouldn't the rising cost of fuel get passed along as part of the freight charge? When my feed costs go up, so does the cost of milk and eggs that I sell. Did the freight companies get into long-term contracts without putting in a clause about renegotiating as the cost of fuel rises? If so, I can't say I've got much pity for them.


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## fordy (Sep 13, 2003)

stanb999 said:


> Are you really trying to say air freight conserves oil??? Air freight will end as the price of fuel accelerates.


...........No! , But , as fuel prices rise , shippers will only airfreight those catagories of items that they feel consumers will purchase because of the necessity for that item , or , the shipping costs have already been paid by a consumer who needs the item , REgardleass of fuel costs . , fordy


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## fordy (Sep 13, 2003)

crafty2002 said:


> I started a thread about the RR's and no one seemed to think it was a good idea. You are one of the people on HT that I respect nearly all your answers so it was nice seeing this post.
> I did say something about a tranfer spot near each large city but maybe I didn't make the point clear. I wasn't talking about a 50,000 pop. I meant a LARGE CITY.
> I think we will see that coming also. The RR's might be where us little people might should start buying like one pc. of stock a week or month, or???? But it won't be me because I know nothing about it, LOL.
> Dennis


.............Dennis , you presaged all of us on this issue ; obviously , we were't paying attention ! , fordy:clap:


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## stranger (Feb 24, 2008)

Ernie said:


> Just how old a country boy are you, because back when I was growing up people didn't cotton to others (even if they knew them) poaching on their land. My father didn't like it, my grandfather didn't like it, and there's even some evidence that might point to the fact that my great-great-great-grandfather didn't like it. (Cherokee Uprising, 1758)


 i think he means back in the days before people had their land posted with NO HUNTING,NO FISHING,NO TRESSPASSING.. I can remember hunting around here when there were no boundries and you just waved at the land owner if you saw them. I'm almost 70


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## Cyngbaeld (May 20, 2004)

I expect we will see adjustments just like every other time fuel prices increased and the cost of living rose faster than wages. Some will lose their shirts and some will make a killing. This is one of the situations we should be prepped for so we can use our stored goods until our income catches up with the cost of living.

Remember when the price of gas went above $1/gallon? I suddenly found myself with a vehicle that was not worth what I owed on it and could barely afford to put gas in the truck and eat too. Had the heat down as far as the thermostat would go in winter and lived in a tiny bedroom with a window a/c that could barely make it bearable in summer and still had problems paying the bills. Went thru some hard times, but I learned a lot. And the world went on.


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

> I started a thread about the RR's and no one seemed to think it was a good idea.


It's still not a good idea, since if there is no fuel, it wont matter how things are shipped because no one will be able to buy the products.
You cant ship produce if theres no fuel to raise it, and if theres no food, no one will be buying anything else.

And most trains run on DIESEL FUEL


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## Explorer (Dec 2, 2003)

> And most trains run on DIESEL FUEL


Also, you should have added we no longer remember how to make coal fired steam train engines.


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## Ann-NWIowa (Sep 28, 2002)

Trucking companies surcharge fuel prices. Those increases are added to cost at retail market. They will continue shipping as long as people are willing/able to pay the retail price.


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## Oldcountryboy (Feb 23, 2008)

True the trucking companies can raise the price of shipping but one of the biggest things not happening is cost of living wages. People are still having to buy thier utilities, gas, and groceries with no pay raises. 

Ernie, not sure where you are located but I'm right here on the Cherokee reservation in Oklahoma. One of the last places in America to receive electricity, the grid didn't make it to my community till the late 40's after WWII. People around here lived on alloted indian land and most people could figure out how they were related to each other in some way. When Sunday came, every business around shut down. You couldn't find a open store/gas station anywhere as everyone believed in keeping the sabbath back then. Plus any factories, which there were very few back then, only had one shift that operated Monday thru Friday only. 

So what I'm telling you is here in my part of the country we were always a little behind in ways of other parts of this country. I'll be 48 soon, so that wasn't too long ago. When I was a youth, I could walk any direction from my house as far as I wanted and none of the landowners cared so long as I didn't shoot their house or livestock. It wasn't till the old timers started dying off and new people (outsiders)would buy up their land before we started seeing "Keep out", "No tresspassing" signs. I'm assuming that the new people who moved into this area must have moved from your neck of the woods reason why they are like they are!


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## Ohio Rusty (Jan 18, 2008)

A woman I work with, her boyfriend Tim is a truck driver that trucks for a company. He is NOT an independent. I quizzed him at length about this and other questions. Tim said that on the average, their trucks carry 250 gallons, and some of the larger rigs carry 350 gallons. Tim said there are 40 trucks in his company, and the company is averaging $1500 per month per truck. That is $50,000 per month the company spends on Diesel fuel. Tim further said the price you see at the pump is not what the trucking companies in central Ohio are paying. Tim says there are diesel gas 'brokers' that broker large bulk gas deals for the trucking companies. They get the diesel cheaper in large bulk quantities, and they use fleet credit cards. When they get gas with their fleet card, the price they pay/charge is the cheaper price that was brokered and is automatically reflected on the charge account thru that fleet credit card, not the price at the pump. That is how they are surviving. Tim also said they charge back the gas cost to the retailers, and get their money back anyway. 

I did ask Tim what was the breaking point when the trucks stopped. His company told their drivers that when diesel reached $8 dollars a gallon, the company would close their doors. I pity the independents as I think many of them are outside the company brokers, and unable to get the cheaper diesel. 
Ohio Rusty ><>


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## jodapp (Nov 16, 2007)

Ohio Rusty said:


> A woman I work with, her boyfriend Tim is a truck driver that trucks for a company. He is NOT an independent. I quizzed him at length about this and other questions. Tim said that on the average, their trucks carry 250 gallons, and some of the larger rigs carry 350 gallons. Tim said there are 40 trucks in his company, and the company is averaging $1500 per month per truck. That is $50,000 per month the company spends on Diesel fuel. Tim further said the price you see at the pump is not what the trucking companies in central Ohio are paying. Tim says there are diesel gas 'brokers' that broker large bulk gas deals for the trucking companies. They get the diesel cheaper in large bulk quantities, and they use fleet credit cards. When they get gas with their fleet card, the price they pay/charge is the cheaper price that was brokered and is automatically reflected on the charge account thru that fleet credit card, not the price at the pump. That is how they are surviving. Tim also said they charge back the gas cost to the retailers, and get their money back anyway.
> 
> I did ask Tim what was the breaking point when the trucks stopped. His company told their drivers that when diesel reached $8 dollars a gallon, the company would close their doors. I pity the independents as I think many of them are outside the company brokers, and unable to get the cheaper diesel.
> Ohio Rusty ><>


A few corrections on the above mentioned. That would be $1500.00 per week per truck, it they are only doing $1500.00 per month, they arent running much at all. As for the discounts, they arent all that! I am an owner/operator leased on with a larger company which entitles me to their discount. It is equal to the cash price on the pump. You are correct about using the fleet card but it only gives you a .05 to .07 discount, same as if you pay with cash.

I spent $48,000.00 dollars in fuel last year, If fuel would have stayed at $4.00 per gallon this year, that total would have jumped to over $80,000.00, at $4.50 it goes to over $96,000.00. I do get a fuel surcharge on my loads, it does get passed on to the consumer (as it should) but it isnt going up as fast as the fuel so I am still loosing money. The thing I hear the most on the road is that our rates need to go up to meet the fuel. If that was to happen, I would be paying $5.00 for a cup of coffee. Cars would be over $100,000.00. The fuel has to go down. There is no reason for it to be this high. It jumped 30 cents last week end, another 10 on wednesday and 2 on friday. I wish I had the answer, I would run for office. I am just becoming as self sufficient as I can and waiting it out like all of you.

As for the hunting comments, one thing that has helped changed that and everything else in America, is the lack of respect. People used to come on to your land and hunt for food. Not cut fences, leave trash everywhere, shoot at houses, sue the land owner if they fell and twisted an ankle, and shoot anything that walked in front of them just for the fun. I grew up with the rule, leave with what you came with, shoot what your going to eat, and always shut the gate behind you. 

Theres my two cents, maybe more.


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## Sparrow (Sep 23, 2003)

There was an analyst on the news today who said that ...in the fist 3 months of this year, 938 trucking companies with 5 or less trucks has gone out of business and expects to see 100 companies with 5 or less trucks to go out of business each week now.


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## WayneR (Mar 26, 2007)

Rail transport is the most economical means of moving large tonage. Present railroad lines and equipment are in poor condition in this country when compaired to rail systems in other countries.

With the enevitable reduction of vehicular traffic due to fuel availability, regular and 'light' rail along with other forms of mass transit must be developed to replace it.

Many branch rail lines to smaller towns and rural areas no longer exist.This infrastructue should have never been allowed to decay to the extent that they have. Government taxation of these lines should cease and their redevlopment should be encouraged.

China is ready, this country is not. From 1988-

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=940DE4D6153DF933A25750C0A96E948260


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## Callieslamb (Feb 27, 2007)

Is China looking for alternative sources of fuel? Or is it just the USA that is being goaded into it? shouldn't some of these other countries have to pony up with their alternatives? The Chinese didn't have telephone service - now they do by skipping the ground line system. In China, you have a cell phone or no phone. Why don't they skip the petroleum-based energy sources and go on to something else? If they are as forward-thinking as they think they are, seems like oil isn't the way to go for fuel.


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## Jim-mi (May 15, 2002)

Callie,
china is emerging as one of the larger\largest producer of PV panels.
Yes they could do it it they put there minds to it.
But for now they have such a big market producing the junk for wallyfarts . . .why should they.


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## mnn2501 (Apr 2, 2008)

Trucking companies will always pass along costs to the shipper, Some companies will fold but many will not. Even during the Great depression, truckers still hauled freight.


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## Ernie (Jul 22, 2007)

Oldcountryboy said:


> Ernie, not sure where you are located but I'm right here on the Cherokee reservation in Oklahoma. One of the last places in America to receive electricity, the grid didn't make it to my community till the late 40's after WWII. People around here lived on alloted indian land and most people could figure out how they were related to each other in some way. When Sunday came, every business around shut down. You couldn't find a open store/gas station anywhere as everyone believed in keeping the sabbath back then. Plus any factories, which there were very few back then, only had one shift that operated Monday thru Friday only.
> 
> So what I'm telling you is here in my part of the country we were always a little behind in ways of other parts of this country. I'll be 48 soon, so that wasn't too long ago. When I was a youth, I could walk any direction from my house as far as I wanted and none of the landowners cared so long as I didn't shoot their house or livestock. It wasn't till the old timers started dying off and new people (outsiders)would buy up their land before we started seeing "Keep out", "No tresspassing" signs. I'm assuming that the new people who moved into this area must have moved from your neck of the woods reason why they are like they are!


My people are from around Salisaw. That's pretty close to your neck of the woods too. They moved down to Texas before I was born and set up there after World War II.

I think some of y'all have a very selective memory when it comes to poaching. It ain't just "city folk" or "outsiders" who didn't like it. My people are old time ranchers and we were pretty continuously picking up spent shotgun shells, tangled fishing line, or repairing cut fences where **** hunters had run their dogs through. A neighbor who asked to hunt on our spread was almost never turned down, but someone who just went over a fence without asking was considered a problem and a no-count-neighbor. 

In short, if a neighbor shows up with a gun or fishing pole and asks permission, then I'm likely to take the rest of the day off and go with him. Yet if I see someone walking the fields, or hear a gun go off in the woods when I know there ain't supposed to be anyone out there ... I'm going to go looking.


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## stranger (Feb 24, 2008)

mnn2501 said:


> *Trucking companies will always pass along costs to the shipper, *Some companies will fold but many will not. Even during the Great depression, truckers still hauled freight.


 and the shipper will pass it on to the consumer-us
i'm retired but i hope all you people pass the cost on to your bosses and they can pass it on to their customers they can ect..yadda yadda and the bubble will bust so we can start over


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## Oldcountryboy (Feb 23, 2008)

Ernie said:


> My people are from around Salisaw. That's pretty close to your neck of the woods too. They moved down to Texas before I was born and set up there after World War II.
> 
> I think some of y'all have a very selective memory when it comes to poaching. It ain't just "city folk" or "outsiders" who didn't like it. My people are old time ranchers and we were pretty continuously picking up spent shotgun shells, tangled fishing line, or repairing cut fences where **** hunters had run their dogs through. A neighbor who asked to hunt on our spread was almost never turned down, but someone who just went over a fence without asking was considered a problem and a no-count-neighbor.
> 
> In short, if a neighbor shows up with a gun or fishing pole and asks permission, then I'm likely to take the rest of the day off and go with him. Yet if I see someone walking the fields, or hear a gun go off in the woods when I know there ain't supposed to be anyone out there ... I'm going to go looking.


I do agree with you Ernie. Even tho I wished it was like when I was a kid, it's purty much going to be a cold day in Haitius before it will ever be like that again. Like I said when I was a young lad everyone knew each other. Now days you don't even know who your closes neighbor is. So yes, if I had a nice size wooded area, I would probably post it myself just to keep the strangers off and only let those who grew up around here on it. With permission that is.


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## sgl42 (Jan 20, 2004)

Callieslamb said:


> Is China looking for alternative sources of fuel? Or is it just the USA that is being goaded into it? shouldn't some of these other countries have to pony up with their alternatives? The Chinese didn't have telephone service - now they do by skipping the ground line system. In China, you have a cell phone or no phone. Why don't they skip the petroleum-based energy sources and go on to something else? If they are as forward-thinking as they think they are, seems like oil isn't the way to go for fuel.


the USA is 5% of the worlds pop'l, and uses 25% of the worlds oil production, most of it for transportation. (Electricity is mostly coal, natural gas, nuclear, and some oil.) 

Much of oil use for transportation is now "baked into the cake" due to the way we've built-out suburbia over the last 50 years, and the way zoning and tax policy has pushed businesses away from city centers to edge cities, and pushed people out into bedroom communities. 

Europe never built suburbia to the same degree the US did, so they don't use as much energy for transportation. China still has a large rural population, which has been rapidly moving to the cities. I think much of the massive building boom in China is for large buildings (skyscapers, large apt complexes, etc), not for single family homes in a suburban setting. So, they have not built out the same sort of suburbia infrastructure yet either. Altho cars sales are growing by a large percentage, it's off a very small initial number relative to the population. So, I expect most people still use public transportation, and live close to where they work and shop, and hence use less energy for transportation than the USA.

--sgl


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## crafty2002 (Aug 23, 2006)

stranger said:


> i think he means back in the days before people had their land posted with NO HUNTING,NO FISHING,NO TRESSPASSING.. I can remember hunting around here when there were no boundries and you just waved at the land owner if you saw them. I'm almost 70


You are about 15 years older than I am but it was the same way with me. There were a lot of farm ponds we used to fish and just way when anyone came buy and that was that. Maybe about 10 years ago I was going to take my daughter fishing. I only carried one rod for Stacey to fish with. That all I wanted to do was show her a good time like we used to have. Got ran off of every pond we went to. The older people has passed on and the "new" generation is now in charge. 

I decided to go down to the river below the steam plant and let her catch some brim and dang if the city hadn't fenced and posted that area also. 
The pour girl never even had time anywhere we went to get a bite that day.


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## moonwild (Mar 20, 2006)

fordy said:


> ................This transformation we're going through is why Warren Buffett has invested heavily in RR stocks in the last couple of years . fordy:clap:


I don't know if many have noticed but the railroad to many communities , including mine, have been dismantled! I talked to one of the workers who was on the crew dismantling our railway and he said they are taking apart much of the rail structure across America and it will never be replaced.The metal rails are being sold to China.

Quote from Minnesata Gazette:

"But the wholesale dismantling of the railroad infrastructure (the rails) was extrememely shortsighted, in my view, and weâre now paying the price for that poor choice on our highways.

It seems highly unlikely that any entity, public or private, will ever lay down the thousands of miles of track that were ripped up or abandoned in the 20th century, but if we would at least develop a transportation strategy that diversifies our options for both movement of people and distribution of goods, it would be better for the future. "


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## Ernie (Jul 22, 2007)

Oldcountryboy said:


> I do agree with you Ernie. Even tho I wished it was like when I was a kid, it's purty much going to be a cold day in Haitius before it will ever be like that again. Like I said when I was a young lad everyone knew each other. Now days you don't even know who your closes neighbor is. So yes, if I had a nice size wooded area, I would probably post it myself just to keep the strangers off and only let those who grew up around here on it. With permission that is.


You and I would be good neighbors, I reckon. I know all mine. Good folks.

My latest problem is with some yuppie scum who thought the raccoon that was eating their trash in the suburbs needed a new home, so they bought a humane trap and took him out to a "nice place in the country" to set him free. One of my neighbors spotted them releasing him to the wild ... right across the road from where I'm free-ranging chickens.


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## Blu3duk (Jun 2, 2002)

Ernie said:


> .... One of my neighbors spotted them releasing him to the wild ... right across the road from where I'm free-ranging chickens.


coonskin caps are still the rage in some parts of the several states.....

RR is only efficient if you can load the cars with non-perishable or slow perishable items cause they tend not to run on a decent time schedule in the several states.... they can however move more frieght with greater efficiency from point A to point B for redistribution onto smaller more localized trucking delivery companies..... Ive seen a train of 100 plu flatbeds with vans loaded on destined for inner city delivery where it is hard to get OTR rigs in and out of with ease..... 

and the steam locomotives powered by coal and such are still being built in China, in fact about 20 years ago with a large deposit of coal there they were producing quite a few for their rail systems, as far as dismantling our railways and shipping the metal off like all other scrap metal right now, I can only hope it is not returned in the form of bullets and bombs, one projectile at a time like the japanese did for WW2, my dad who is appraoching 74 remembers the old narrow gauge forest lines being hauled off for scrap and shipped to Japan in the 1930's, guess we may be doomed to repeat history eh?

William
Idaho


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## fordy (Sep 13, 2003)

moonwild said:


> I don't know if many have noticed but the railroad to many communities , including mine, have been dismantled! I talked to one of the workers who was on the crew dismantling our railway and he said they are taking apart much of the rail structure across America and it will never be replaced.The metal rails are being sold to China.
> 
> Quote from Minnesata Gazette:
> 
> ...


.............Looking back , from 2008 it probably does look shortsided ! But , I'll bet even though they pulled up their tracks ; most certainly they still OWN the right of way those tracks were first laid down upon . So , if true , new tracks are still possible where a profit can be made . , fordy


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## stanb999 (Jan 30, 2005)

fordy said:


> .............Looking back , from 2008 it probably does look shortsided ! But , I'll bet even though they pulled up their tracks ; most certainly they still OWN the right of way those tracks were first laid down upon . So , if true , new tracks are still possible where a profit can be made . , fordy


In some areas I know that they were given back to the town for "rails to trails" projects ect.


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## Freeholder (Jun 19, 2004)

stanb999 said:


> In some areas I know that they were given back to the town for "rails to trails" projects ect.


Klamath Falls is still a major RR town -- big depot here and lots of north-south RR traffic. At least two of the men at my church work for the RR, one is an engineer, the other is a conductor working to become an engineer. But we also have a long trail (seventy-some miles, I believe) that is one of those 'rails to trails' projects. And right behind our house is a road owned by Weyrhauser, restricted access but people here use it for a trail, that used to be a RR bed. The Weyrhauser road was just a logging RR, and I think the other one probably was, also, though it might have gone clear over to Lakeview at one time (about 150 miles). 

Give it a few years, and I think you'll see pedicabs (probably have some already in some places), lots of people commuting on bikes and scooters, and in rural places like here, people actually using their horses for something other than pasture ornaments. 

Goods will go long-distance via RR (if there are still any companies in business to produce anything and ship it), then do 'local' delivery via truck. In some areas, 'truck' may be teams of draft horses. I remember reading somewhere that not too long ago, breweries in England figured out that it was actually more economical to use teams of Clydesdales to deliver beer locally than it was to use trucks, and that was before the price of fuel started going up.

Kathleen


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## Oldcountryboy (Feb 23, 2008)

About 10 years ago in a nearby town they dismantled the old railroad station that had been there since the 1900's. It became obsolete cause it wasn't used anymore for public transportation. Many old timers were upset cause it was a reminisive landmark. They tore it down anyway to make room for progress.

If fuel keeps going up, I bet they'll wish they'd never tore it down.


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## Ernie (Jul 22, 2007)

I'm not sure we currently have the infrastructure in place to keep train lines running. Foundries to make the rails and engines, skilled linemen, and fueling stations. Can't rely on coal trains for much longer if the gasoline dries up. 

Plus our urban landscapes have been redesigned from the 1880's model of communities alongside rail lines to communities alongside highways. Are you going to pick up and move those communities? No, they'll starve to death or move themselves. Vast stretches of highway will look like that old folk song ... "The L&N Don't Stop Here Anymore".


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## moonwild (Mar 20, 2006)

stanb999 said:


> In some areas I know that they were given back to the town for "rails to trails" projects ect.


Yes ...our rail rights were turned over to the community to Rails to Trails.
Oh course ,there is a huge fight over making it open to orv or keeping it pedestrian/ horse/ bicycle.
Landowners aren't very happy either to have a trail that close to their property.:stars:


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## Gary in ohio (May 11, 2002)

As others have noted trucking companies will just pass on the cost. The Just in Time delivery system is why we have so many trucks on the road. No one wants to store inventory so they let someone else keep it till they need it. Now companies will need to 
store items, instead of 1 crate a week via truck, they get 1/2 truck load each month. Longer range loads will start moving via trains. I have noticed an increase in train traffic on the tracks through our town in the last few months.


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## Freeholder (Jun 19, 2004)

Someone back there a ways mentioned that we survived the Depression. 

Yes, we did. But fuel prices were still extremely low at that time, and there was no shortage of it. Also, the RR systems hadn't yet been dismantled. Now, not only has much of the RR system been dismantled, as we've been discussing, but also fuel prices are high and going higher. Don't expect them to come back down any time soon, barring a lengthy and extremely serious world-wide depression -- which is probably coming. But since oil supplies are starting to tank, and will tank at greater and greater rates in the years to come, even greatly reducing the demand is unlikely to reduce the cost much if at all. 

We'll survive. But what comes out the other end isn't likely to look very much like what went in on this end.

Kathleen


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## Explorer (Dec 2, 2003)

> We'll survive. But what comes out the other end isn't likely to look very much like what went in on this end.


Very true. Who in 1930 would have predicted trucks would replace trains?

I hope there is a new, or retreaded old, technology about to enter the picture.


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## moonwild (Mar 20, 2006)

BlueJuniperFarm said:


> a lengthy and extremely serious world-wide depression -- which is probably coming. But since oil supplies are starting to tank, and will tank at greater and greater rates in the years to come, even greatly reducing the demand is unlikely to reduce the cost much if at all.
> 
> We'll survive. But what comes out the other end isn't likely to look very much like what went in on this end.
> 
> Kathleen


Yes...in our remote town the delivery trucker for our little coffee place has added a 25$ a week gas surcharge to deliveries already, and has told the owner he may not be able to bring supplies to the little communities soon if the gas keeps rising. 
Those of us in remote areas better be ready to take care of ourselves. I see many here who can take care of their selves but also see many who seem to have no abilities to survive if not taken care of from cradle to grave!


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## Elizabeth (Jun 4, 2002)

We live near Staples, MN and my FIL, who was a RR man before he retired, lives just outside Staples. He told us recently that something like 80 trains a DAY pass through town- more than when he was working.


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## stranger (Feb 24, 2008)

BlueJuniperFarm said:


> Someone back there a ways mentioned that we survived the Depression.
> 
> Yes, we did. But fuel prices were still extremely low at that time, and there was no shortage of it. Also, the RR systems hadn't yet been dismantled. Now, not only has much of the RR system been dismantled, as we've been discussing, but also fuel prices are high and going higher. Don't expect them to come back down any time soon, barring a lengthy and extremely serious world-wide depression -- which is probably coming. But since oil supplies are starting to tank, and will tank at greater and greater rates in the years to come, even greatly reducing the demand is unlikely to reduce the cost much if at all.
> 
> ...


 back in 1930, i think Americas population was about 40-50 million and most of them lived on farms or in the small country towns where they could raise a garden. gas was about 10 cents a gallon and about one family in 10 had a car.
now with 305 million mostly living in the cities, there is going to be a lot of blood shed when they get hungry, many are not going to survive a depression now. even many country people don't know how to plant a garden.
in 1930 nearly all country people were burning wood unless you were rich and could afford coal. some of these fith avenue farmers are trying to burn wood now, but they don't have a clue about burning it, i could sell them green wood and they wouldn';t know the difference.
our R Road was tore up to make a rail trail-jogging path for people that are to fat from setting on their -- and eating at McDonalds. someday they're going to wish the trains were back.


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## fordy (Sep 13, 2003)

Ernie said:


> I'm not sure we currently have the infrastructure in place to keep train lines running. Foundries to make the rails and engines, skilled linemen, and fueling stations. Can't rely on coal trains for much longer if the gasoline dries up.
> 
> Plus our urban landscapes have been redesigned from the 1880's model of communities alongside rail lines to communities alongside highways. Are you going to pick up and move those communities? No, they'll starve to death or move themselves. Vast stretches of highway will look like that old folk song ... "The L&N Don't Stop Here Anymore".


........Why don't we have nuclear powered engines ? Surely , if they can power sub's and space crafts we can build a reactor for the railroad ! , fordy:rock:


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## Explorer (Dec 2, 2003)

Interesting idea Fordy. Can you imagine the whinning the tree huggers will do when this train comes thru their local town. The old, ''we want GREEN, but not in our neighborhood". 


Toshiba Builds 100x Smaller Micro Nuclear Reactor 

Toshiba has developed a new class of micro size Nuclear Reactors that is designed to power individual apartment buildings or city blocks. The new reactor, which is only 20 feet by 6 feet, could change everything for small remote communities, small businesses or even a group of neighbors who are fed up with the power companies and want more control over their energy needs.

The 200 kilowatt Toshiba designed reactor is engineered to be fail-safe and totally automatic and will not overheat. Unlike traditional nuclear reactors the new micro reactor uses no control rods to initiate the reaction. The new revolutionary technology uses reservoirs of liquid lithium-6, an isotope that is effective at absorbing neutrons. The Lithium-6 reservoirs are connected to a vertical tube that fits into the reactor core. The whole whole process is self sustaining and can last for up to 40 years, producing electricity for only 5 cents per kilowatt hour, about half the cost of grid energy.

Toshiba expects to install the first reactor in Japan in 2008 and to begin marketing the new system in Europe and America in 2009


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## Shinsan (Jul 11, 2006)

From the dimensions, it looks like one of those Micro Nuclear Power Plants could be built into a shipping container. It'd be much like a very big battery. Be geat for remote locations like we have in Aust.


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