# The Balloon...



## seedspreader (Oct 18, 2004)

What do YOU consider the balloon going up?

(It's ok to get all tin foil here because I think war gaming is the purpose of this thread.)

For me, I think it would be (outside of standard, advanced warned storms) something that caused widespread blackout of electric and communication.

Example: the 2003 East Coast black out would have caused me to take SHTF actions until I got more information. Our electricity went out for about 10 minutes (we lived in Ohio on the GOOD side of the breaker that caused that whole thing).

Secondarily, riots within 100 miles of me would probably cause me take SHTF actions.


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## seedspreader (Oct 18, 2004)

Angie, could you fix my typo title??? I'm missing an L.




(I just saw this and fixed the title. 11pm Thursday).


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## texican (Oct 4, 2003)

Communications go down, for whatever reason, it's bunker down time. No broadcast tv, no satellite tv, no radio, it's hog crap on the fan time. Local stations go down, no big deal... all stations gone, something bad has happened, and I'm immediately going to think whatever's killed the communications system is working it's way through whatever part of the grid that's still up.

If this happens, there'd be no last minute 'runs'. Reckon it really wouldn't be a balloon, but a zeppelin flaming down...


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## shanzone2001 (Dec 3, 2009)

I see it starting here in CA with the high rate of unemplyment and home foreclosures. I think it will really be a SHTF situation when our state government faces the harsh reality that CA is BROKE and they are forced to stop paying for entitlement programs. How will the people who rely on the government for food, money and shelter survive? It will be VERY scary, to say the least.

I predict that my family and I will be staying clear of any major cities!!!


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## ChristyACB (Apr 10, 2008)

shanzone2001 said:


> I see it starting here in CA with the high rate of unemplyment and home foreclosures. I think it will really be a SHTF situation when our state government faces the harsh reality that CA is BROKE and they are forced to stop paying for entitlement programs. How will the people who rely on the government for food, money and shelter survive? It will be VERY scary, to say the least.
> 
> I predict that my family and I will be staying clear of any major cities!!!


That is my balloon also: If this state or any nearby state goes broke enough to stop entitlement programs or uses the threat of stopping them to get a federal bail out.

Because the federal bail outs will be hemmed and hawed over (I say they will do this because the feds will want to make a show of being reluctant to hand over our taxes to a specific state in order to pacify us, but in reality, it's a done deal already) the first state to truly go broke will make widely publicized pleas for the bail out with the threat of having to stop "paychecks" on the next payday...which of course is more welfare than actual paychecks.

All poopage will hit the fan at that point and I'll do what I can to respond as SHTF while keeping on doing military work...which is likely to increase at that point too.


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## Cyngbaeld (May 20, 2004)

What "SHTF actions" are you talking about?


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## Ohio dreamer (Apr 6, 2006)

If it was just DH and I, I'd roll up the sidewalk the moment anything looked different....but I'm a loner type. Since we have kids I have to be more selective on what makes me hunker down. My kids need to see other people, their friends and family so we can't lock down for every little thing. 

Weather is the most likely things that would make us switch gears, and has done so in the past. I think most other scenarios would happen slow enough that it wouldn't be an over night change but we would slowly "lock down" so the kids might not notice the change too much at first. Kind of like the gas prices creeping up, we will just slowly limit our travel and piggy back more trips.


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## Ernie (Jul 22, 2007)

By the time I became "survival aware" I started realizing the balloon had ALREADY gone up.

Inflation has been fluctuating as much as 8% over the past decade. Our nation is trillions of dollars in debt to a foreign nation, making the current and all future generations _bondservants_. Since 9/11 we have suffered an unprecedented rise in government tyranny that has turned America into something more akin to Soviet Russia than the land of the free. Manufacturing has almost completely abandoned our nation's shores. Our agricultural system is causing the very soil to _flee_ out from beneath the farmer's fields and the level of toxicity in the food supply we import puts our health at risk.

Whatever you're waiting on, folks, it's already happened. America has become a terminally ill patient and all the children creep around the house trying not to upset the old girl in her last days. Meanwhile, the ne'er-do-well relations are looting the antiques and heirlooms out the back door as fast as possible.

Right now you need to be insulating your families from the repercussions of the other shoe finally dropping. 

I suppose this comment is going to draw my critics like flies to fresh poop, but let me leave you with these questions to ponder:

1. Do you think that through some unearned virtue we shall be the first civilization in the history of the world to avoid the crash that comes from using fiat currency?

2. If you know anything of history and the fall of civilizations, do you think anything can possible arise from our current agricultural practices _besides famine?_

3. Knowing that the concept of a republic has been around since at least 400 years before the birth of Christ, and looking around and seeing almost no other republics still standing after the past two millenium, do you really think that we can remain a free people without undergoing the rigors of bloody and violent revolution?


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## bee (May 12, 2002)

my first instinct is to make a few wise cracks and use a couple of smilies to de-fuse all this intensity..unfortunately I think Ernie is right. A major course correction for this country is needed and if we are all honest we will admit to knowing it. History has shown that a wellfare state is consumed from within to the point that an outside threat takes it down.
If there is an "answer" to keep it from happening, I don't know it. Nor do I believe that the "masses" would allow the measures widely thought to be the answer to take effect. We have been trained to PC and individual softness; trained to be intitaled for generations. The bill is coming due, question is will it be our lifetime or the next generation's????

Heavy pondering before lunch. I often wonder if we as a nation could have done all that we have done without being what we are? I wonder if we, like the Titanic lifeboats, must protect what we already carry instead of continuing to pull more and more on board. But if we do that will we save or destroy America??


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## Txsteader (Aug 22, 2005)

Ernie said:


> Whatever you're waiting on, folks, it's already happened. America has become a terminally ill patient and all the children creep around the house trying not to upset the old girl in her last days. Meanwhile, the ne'er-do-well relations are looting the antiques and heirlooms out the back door as fast as possible.
> 
> Right now you need to be insulating your families from the repercussions of the other shoe finally dropping.


Yup. 

And that's all I care to say openly on the matter. :whistlin:


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## HTWannabee (Jan 19, 2007)

If you are not prepared and just read Ernie's post, what is the very first thing to do? I mean right now, today, what should someone do if they have nothing prepped? I know debt should go etc. but that can take time. It can be overwhelming to think of everything at once and the answers may be very helpful.


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## Aintlifegrand (Jun 3, 2005)

HTWannabee said:


> If you are not prepared and just read Ernie's post, what is the very first thing to do? I mean right now, today, what should someone do if they have nothing prepped? I know debt should go etc. but that can take time. It can be overwhelming to think of everything at once and the answers may be very helpful.



#1...Make a plan for where you will go/be if things get bad... if it is where you live then you are a step ahead.. move to next part of the plan.. how will you and your family survive ( what do you have currently in way of food, water and protection sources..take an inventory and prepare for what you will do if utilites fail...have three ways to obtain each of the big 4..water, food, shelter and protection), How will you protect what is yours? Prepare now by stocking up on basics, where there are holes in your current inventory..you need shelter, water, food, protection at all times....prepare for several scenariors...then scout out people or groups that might be like minded and to whom you might have an alliance..be careful here and realize how someone is now while having all the comforts may not be how they will react in a crisis...know the people.. know how they are and evaluate your level of trust... know the businesses around you that might provide some barter ability...But I reiterate...First and foremost is to make a plan.. do it today and began working on sets of goals ( see Blueduks thread on goals) Do it immediately...no panic but no procrastinating..time is short... just knowing what you are going to do and how will help you get it together.


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## Ernie (Jul 22, 2007)

HTWannabee said:


> If you are not prepared and just read Ernie's post, what is the very first thing to do? I mean right now, today, what should someone do if they have nothing prepped? I know debt should go etc. but that can take time. It can be overwhelming to think of everything at once and the answers may be very helpful.


At this point, I wouldn't be too concerned about debt. Try not to incur any more of it, but debt wouldn't be my first concern. 

First, secure your food supply. You need food stockpiles on hand and then as much means of production as you can do. I don't care if it's illegal in your city or suburb. Raising pet rabbits in a rabbit hutch that you secretly butcher and use to put food on your table is an option. There's a lot of options there and I won't bog you down in details, but SOME food production is a must.

Second, provide for your security. This means GUNS. A recent study shows that 1/8th of all Americans are on food stamps and up to 1/4th are on some form of entitlement, be it social security, disability, etc. When those checks stop showing up or the money in them suddenly won't buy you lunch off of the Taco bell value menu, what do you think is going to happen? One of my amusements is listening to the police scanner. Last night the police responded to no less than THREE home invasions or attempted home invasions in the 2 hours I was listening. And it was a slow night. 

Third, start working on a plan to get out. Your job could go THIS AFTERNOON. The electricity could cut off tonight. Do you have a friend with property in the country whom you know well enough to ask them to provide a safe house? Would you provide them a safe house in return if you're the one in the country with property? If you don't have allies and neighbors in your community who get it then you need to start looking to change communities.

I'm talking about moving away from population centers and the large entitlement farms that our government has built. If I could I'd live on a mountain somewhere that required the tax collector, sheriff, building inspector, or truant officer to drive, row a boat, climb a vertical cliff, and hike two days through the wilderness to get to. I've yet to accomplish that part of my plans yet, and may not have time before things fall apart. But I'm optimistic.

You're on the right path with your homeschooling. That's the singlemost important thing a parent can be doing right now. My parents sent me to public school and it took me almost two decades of adulthood to undo the indoctrination I received. Never saddling your child with that burden is the single greatest gift you can give them. Forget about "socialization" or attending the proms or any of that other stuff that it is said homeschooling children miss out on. What you have to trade in order to get that stuff is not to your advantage.

Finish eating and get up out of there, Damocles. The hour grows late.


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## TheMartianChick (May 26, 2009)

The blackout of 2003 worried me because I was at work and there was no battery powered radio to get information and the office phones don't work without electricity. I ended up calling my husband on my cell phone to try to figure out what had happened. Since he was at home, he had access to a battery powered radio and was able to fill me in.

At that time, my tinfoil hat wasn't quite as snug, so I didn't think too much about a bigger picture that would involve chaos. I was just thinking about inconvenience and whether or not I could leave work since I couldn't accomplish anything.

Nowadays, it would take a major drop in the stock market, a true Cuban Missile crisis happening or a pandemic.


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## seedspreader (Oct 18, 2004)

Everyone has a different idea of what the SHTF Actions should be. Cyngbald asked the right question I suppose.

For me, SHTF actions include, carrying firearms everywhere I go, no matter whether I can legally carry there or not, limited travel, no frivolous spending, full-hoard mode, kids don't leave the land anymore, etc. 

I suppose that would make it's own thread.

I am not talking about active prepping, gardening etc.

I am talking about, I no longer go to work away from the house.

I no longer take Dollars and am in bartering only mode.

So, maybe some of you have reached that point, but I have not.


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## NoClue (Jan 22, 2007)

Normally, these threads are where Ernie and I start on divergent paths. It is, perhaps a sign of the times that this isn't happening this time. The metaphor of the 'balloon going up' isn't particularly useful, I don't think, because it implies that there will be a single event that marks the beginning of one era and the end of the other. This kind of thinking is much more useful in hindsight than it is while the events in question are actually playing out.

Take for example, the Dark Ages. Historians are in general agreement that the dark ages began precisely on 4 September 476, when Odoacer deposed the last Roman Emperor Romulus Augustus, and very uncharacteristically for a 'Barbarian' declined to take on the mantle of Emperor for himself. If you were alive at the time, unless you were part of the Emperor's retinue, there was actually nothing special about that day at all. It was remarkably similar to the 3 September and 5 September - unless you were on Odoacer's side, in which case, you probably thought it was the start of a very good time, possibly even the very best of times.


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## Cyngbaeld (May 20, 2004)

Thanks. So you are talking "full hunker down mode", not "run out and grab all I can and max out the cc mode" (which imho isn't a good idea at all).

Having "retired to the farm" my situation isn't quite the same as if I were still dependent on a job. If I were still working, it would be in a hospital setting and I would have to be there as long as possible. I think that my "trigger" would probably be the point where civil unrest made it very dangerous to travel OR when the monetary recompense did not keep up with expenses. That is, if my salary was no longer worth enough to pay for fuel and other costs associated with working.


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## cnichols (Jan 5, 2010)

I must say that I agree with Ernie on this one. The proverbial balloon has already gone up. 

I try not to dwell on it too awful much, hence part of why I stopped posting. I was driving myself insane worrying about what we weren't getting done be being on the road for months at a time. In the mean time, the land is now paid for, the mobile home and the semi (the one we're currently driving) will both be paid for next year. That will leave a minimal amount of out-flow cash wise which will open up doors pretty quick to being able to accomplish what we need to accomplish.

I think, for us, it will be either when cash has no value anymore (which I worry about on an almost daily basis) or when we can no longer afford to run our truck and make the fiat money we all depend on to prepare.

All I can do is pray that the other shoe doesn't drop for a year. One year will give us the time we require to get squared away.


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## soulsurvivor (Jul 4, 2004)

Personally I had the sky filled with balloons the day I had to retire from work due to health issues. It's been an ongoing learning experience for both me and my husband. Coupled with the reality of this world, it can be overwhelming to say the least. We've tried and continue to try to not be anymore dependent on systems than we have to. We're dedicated to being and staying as self sufficent as possible for as long as possible. It's going to have to become really bad before we move anywhere. Everything and everyone we have to depend on is here. 

My husband and I both think that the very worst and maybe the most likely balloon will be a major earthquake in the New Madrid zone. It's the main reason we bought a travel trailer because we know our house would be badly damaged if a major earthquake hits.


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## timfromohio (Jun 19, 2007)

There are many balloons here to deal with, but for me, a big one went up about a year and a half ago when we officially monetized our currency. I can't remember what useless tidbit the media was worried about, but they certainly paid no attention to the fact that the Fed starting buying up government securities b/c nobody else showed up to buy them. For me, that was huge. No major news organization, I mean NONE covered this action - IMHO, it was something that every network should have been covering or at least mentioning, but nope. 

What's the first thing to do if you just read Ernie's post? Get right with the Lord Jesus Christ. No offense to anybody else out there, but that's my recommendation for what the first, and most important, prep should be.


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## cast iron (Oct 4, 2004)

Mother Nature:

- Weather report of storm/high winds (usually results in power outage, property damage, some travel restrictions, possibly no fuel at the gas stations, etc) You learn real quick to take this type of thing seriously here in certain parts of WA. I learned the hard way one year with Pneumonia in a poorly heated home with no electricity for one week, ran out of gen fuel, no fuel at the stations, etc. That won't happen again.

- Earthquake is most likely here, but near as I can tell there will be no warning. We will know it when it happens, and as odd as this sounds, I kind of like it that way.


Societal breakdown type situations:

- Communication outage across a wide variety of venues.

- Restriction of free travel

- Power grid down for an extended period of time or there is no logical reason for the outage. (it goes down here all the time, sometimes as long as a week to a week and a half)

- Verifiable (as much as possible) stories or communications of firearm confiscation schemes taking place. Note that for this to take place it is necessary for the communication grid to be up, even if it is only the ham radio operators in my group.


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## Danaus29 (Sep 12, 2005)

I will truly worry the economy is headed for collapse when INS actually deports illegals and closes our borders. 

A couple years back I knew things were going downhill in this area when the illegals fled like rats leaving a sinking ship. We've since recovered a bit and the illegals are back in droves.

Steps we are taking for when the poo hits the fan, enlarged the garden, looking into a manual well pump, paying down major debt so we can have the money to buy acreage where we can raise animals, checking out solar powered things such as lights and fans (won't need tv or radio if it all goes down), fixing up our other properties and the travel trailer just in case, insulating the house so if we do hunker down here the woodburner can do a better job of keeping us warm.

I realized long ago that this location prevents people from providing for themselves in a disaster. No emergency outhouse, no cistern, limits on outbuildings and fences, etc. I want to be someplace where I can hunker down for a year or more if need be. 

I need to learn how to run the pressure cooker and build a solar dehydrator. Also need to have more pertinent info in print instead of depending on the www. I am accumulating bits and pieces of knowledge in a notebook so I will have info on hand for future reference.

A well stocked storm cellar is another item on my want/need list. I saw what tornadoes did to Xenia and Newton Falls/Niles. I want someplace to be safe and shelter if my house does get blown away.


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## Ernie (Jul 22, 2007)

A civilization where producers outnumber consumers can continue indefinitely and probably store up enough resources to weather almost any storm.

A civilization where consumers outnumber the producers is living a deficit lifestyle. When the resources built up by previous generations have been completely consumed, that civilization WILL return to an equilibrium. 

What you should be preparing for is that returning-to-equilibrium state. You won't see the end of the process. Your CHILDREN probably see the end of the process. Historians argue but the general consensus is that it took the fragmented civilizations born out of the death of Rome something like 400 years to come out of that state. Many believe that Europe is in that state _right now_ and will continue to be that way for another century or two.

This forum is "survival and emergency preparedness". You can stockpile enough food to be prepared in the case of an emergency. You cannot stockpile enough of anything to _survive_ what I'm referring to. Not in the long term. Your efforts should be focused on figuring out what a new, sustainable comfort level is and how to maintain it.


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## glazed (Aug 19, 2006)

timfromohio said:


> What's the first thing to do if you just read Ernie's post?
> 
> Get right with the Lord Jesus Christ.
> 
> No offense to anybody else out there, but that's my recommendation for what the first, and most important, prep should be.


Amen.


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## SquashNut (Sep 25, 2005)

Ernie said:


> By the time I became "survival aware" I started realizing the balloon had ALREADY gone up.
> 
> Inflation has been fluctuating as much as 8% over the past decade. Our nation is trillions of dollars in debt to a foreign nation, making the current and all future generations _bondservants_. Since 9/11 we have suffered an unprecedented rise in government tyranny that has turned America into something more akin to Soviet Russia than the land of the free. Manufacturing has almost completely abandoned our nation's shores. Our agricultural system is causing the very soil to _flee_ out from beneath the farmer's fields and the level of toxicity in the food supply we import puts our health at risk.
> 
> ...


Any one who does not feel this already is blessed many times over.
The food banks here have long lines and the manager says all the food they get each week goes out the same week. They pass out 56 boxes of food each week and salvage food bags to an additional 100. They used to give the boxes once a week to every one but have to limit it to monthly now. Her next fear is they will have less to put in each box. this is a very small town. The reason I know about the struggles of the food bank is I had my husband go talk to the manager, to see just how bad it was getting and how we could help. If there was a time when people mooched off the food banks, that time is over. There is a great need for the service.
There is no jobs in the papers to go apply for.


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## ldc (Oct 11, 2006)

The "balloon" for me will be when the GOV cuts even small soc sec/disability checks by 20%. This is a tactic being used in the EU, expected to begin the first of the year. One thing I've learned by being on this board for a long time, and surrounding my own thoughts with those of others who think differently, is that once something happens elsewhere in the current world, it is even more likely to happen here, and soon. The takeover of Argentinian "401k" equivalents by the National Gov gave me pause, more so when Hungary did the same thing a few weeks ago. It is as if, once something formerly unthinkable happens in a "civilized" part of the world, then it is much easier for the same measure to be enacted here. I live in a poor state with little infrastructure (or, unsupported financially) and that is why I used the above "pension" type things as examples; 20% less of anything here, will be a disaster for many elderly and handicapped. IMHO, ldc


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## meanwhile (Dec 13, 2007)

I don't understand the Balloon part? Why would there be a "balloon"? Does it mean like a "red flag"? Or a "red herring"? Or Red Alert? Emergency?


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## SquashNut (Sep 25, 2005)

It's bad enough they did not get their cost of living increases. The goverment says there is no inflation.


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## Ernie (Jul 22, 2007)

meanwhile said:


> I don't understand the Balloon part? Why would there be a "balloon"? Does it mean like a "red flag"? Or a "red herring"? Or Red Alert? Emergency?


It's an old expression.

In the trenches of World War I, both sides would use observation balloons (a balloon with a basket and a person underneath) as artillery spotters. So the poor souls in the trenches knew they were about to get a serious pounding when they saw a balloon go up.


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## Ohio dreamer (Apr 6, 2006)

HTWannabee said:


> If you are not prepared and just read Ernie's post, what is the very first thing to do? I mean right now, today, what should someone do if they have nothing prepped? I know debt should go etc. but that can take time. It can be overwhelming to think of everything at once and the answers may be very helpful.


My kids have learned 9 Survival Essentials. I use this list to help me organize as well. You can work on many or all sections at once, but the bottom of the list will do you no good if the items higher up on the list are not being worked on, too. Now matter how much food and water you have it will do you no good it you have no will to live or place to keep it.

Prayer
Will to Live
Oxygen
Shelter/Clothing
Fire 
Rest 
Signal
Water
Food

This list was more for being in a situation away from home, but it still can be used. When converting this list to "prepping our home" I see it this way (I also shuffle the order a bit of the bottom items for prepping my home, making the order: ...fire, water, food, rest, signal)

Shelter/Clothing - keep the house in good repair, have a nice assortment of tents and camping gear (and knowing/practicing how to use it) as you never know where you may have to go. Keep going to Goodwill and such location and pick up clothes for the kids to grow into (I use to keep 3-4 sizes bigger then the kids current size....we fell out of this when lived outside the US, I need to build it back up), replacement items for clothes that wear out (more for DH and I), watch the clearance racks, etc. My kids being in scouts actually fits in here. DS has just joined Boy Scouts and has camped out in a tents in sub freezing temperature for 4 nights, so he knows he CAN do it if need be. DD is a Brownie, so they haven't done any extreme camping, but thy will get to that some day, I hope. I also have seeds here (verses down in food). Food, to me, is what I can grab and eat now....seeds are a long term item. Gardens are landscaping and landscaping is part of my house (shelter). So when I add another seed packet, garden bed, fruit tree, herb, etc I'm filling in more holes here. Protection of my family also falls here (read that how you wish).

Fire - heating and lighting. Think of how you will heat your house (shelter) without electric or gas. Could you go 3 months without electric lights, what would you use, get up and go to bed with the sun or extend the day with some sort of light, etc?

Rest - entertainment for kids and parents, what we will do in down time (and down time is a must even in the midst of a crisis). I add in education items here, too. We home school so we have many things already on hand. My suggestion to anyone that has nothing (anyone with kids has something) would be to watch your local library sales for a set of encyclopedias. I got ours, that were 4 yrs old, for $30.

signal- communication with those outside your four walls - crank/battery power radios possibly going into HAM radio, etc. Personally I move this to the bottom of the list. Communication is not as important to me as it may be for others. I have a battery operated weather radio and a hand crank radio - that's all I personally need. My family is too far away that is a major SHTF hits, communication with them will likely be impossible in any form other then letters that may or may not ever arrive.


Your definition of SHTF also has a big part of where you start. Are you worried about loss of a job, something that takes out the grid (EMP, terrorist attack, some dofus bumping a button at the power company), inflation or Martial Law? My suggestion to anyone starting out is to start small - cover what you would need to have if you lost your job and had zero dollars coming into you pocket for 2 months...what would you cut back and how would you adjust that need. What bills could you lower or drop all together? How would you eat? This will keep you from going crazy with the "I'm too far behind" feeling. Once you have feel you have 2 months covered, expand out your scenario a bit to cover more basis.


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## GA peasant (Dec 10, 2010)

Personally, I think of our society/civilization as juggling several grenades (the economy,the environment,peak oil,the ozone layer,escalation of war,another Chernobyl,another/multiple Katrinas, plague outbreaks,etc) any one of which has the potential to seriously cripple our capacity to carry on a "normal" existence (defined as what you're used to). We don't know when one will go off, or how quickly the others will as well,or how many it will take to overwhelm us. But we seem to sense something(s) wrong, more and more seem anxious and they're not quite sure why (Although the readers of this and similar forums have their antennae out).


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## Karen (Apr 17, 2002)

The balloon is definitely on it's way up. When imports and exports are no longer based on the U.S. dollar (and with America's debt) our economy will collapse and we're toast. The domino effect will take place and we'll be a third world country within a couple of weeks, if not days.

It's just the nature of the beast. America can survive anything -- except economic collapse. People are too use to having too much and have no idea how to take care of themselves and their family. Look at NYC; over 8 million people. Ever wonder how many of them even know how to grow a single tomato plant, let alone provide for themselves and a family? And that's just one city!


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## seedspreader (Oct 18, 2004)

Karen said:


> The balloon is definitely on it's way up. When imports and exports are no longer based on the U.S. dollar (and with America's debt) our economy will collapse and we're toast. The domino effect will take place and we'll be a third world country within a couple of weeks, if not days.
> 
> It's just the nature of the beast. America can survive anything -- except economic collapse. People are too use to having too much and have no idea how to take care of themselves and their family. Look at NYC; over 8 million people. Ever wonder how many of them even know how to grow a single tomato plant, let alone provide for themselves and a family? And that's just one city!


... or own a snow shovel?


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## Ohio dreamer (Apr 6, 2006)

seedspreader said:


> ... or own a snow shovel?


:rock:


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## Cyngbaeld (May 20, 2004)

A lot of them don't even own a pot to cook in.


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## SquashNut (Sep 25, 2005)

ldc said:


> The "balloon" for me will be when the GOV cuts even small soc sec/disability checks by 20%. This is a tactic being used in the EU, expected to begin the first of the year. One thing I've learned by being on this board for a long time, and surrounding my own thoughts with those of others who think differently, is that once something happens elsewhere in the current world, it is even more likely to happen here, and soon. The takeover of Argentinian "401k" equivalents by the National Gov gave me pause, more so when Hungary did the same thing a few weeks ago. It is as if, once something formerly unthinkable happens in a "civilized" part of the world, then it is much easier for the same measure to be enacted here. I live in a poor state with little infrastructure (or, unsupported financially) and that is why I used the above "pension" type things as examples; 20% less of anything here, will be a disaster for many elderly and handicapped. IMHO, ldc


My husband told me his freond just had his ss check cut by 20% for no apparent reason this month.


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## Ernie (Jul 22, 2007)

Cyngbaeld said:


> A lot of them don't even own a pot to cook in.


That's not how I always heard that expression goes.


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## shanzone2001 (Dec 3, 2009)

timfromohio said:


> What's the first thing to do if you just read Ernie's post? Get right with the Lord Jesus Christ. No offense to anybody else out there, but that's my recommendation for what the first, and most important, prep should be.


Amen. 
And the next thing you should do is use the common sense He has given you to prepare your family with food, water, shelter and protection.


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## glazed (Aug 19, 2006)

shanzone2001 said:


> Amen.
> And the next thing you should do is use the common sense He has given you to prepare your family with food, water, shelter and protection.


Amen. But not so much that those "things" become your focus, your god, your idol, your mammon ... not so much that you place more faith in those "things" than in Him.

Edited to add: 

You know, the whole "moths, rusts, and thieves" bit ... yeah, it has some merit, I believe.


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## FyredUp (May 22, 2010)

If you need to get right with your God then do it. 

But I always remember this story about preparedness and taking care of yourself with God's help.
.
A man stands on his front step as the water rises on his front yard. he looks up and says Dear Lord please protect me from this coming flood. Just then an Army National guard Unit drives up in a 5 ton truck that is still navigating the roadway. They call to the man and ask him to climb into the truck. He replies "No thank you the Lord shall protect me." As the water rushes into his house a boat with local firefighters comes to his house and they ask him to get in the boat so they can evacuate him. He replies "No thank you the Lord shall protect me." Later as he sits on the peak of the roof of his house the water rapidly approaching him a helicopter flies in and drops a basket down to him for him to get in to be raised to the helicopter. They ask him to get in the basket so they can evacuate him. He replies "No thank you the Lord shall protect me."

The man of course drowns and as he stands before God in Heaven he says "Lord why didn't you save me?" The Lord replies " I sent a truck, a boat, and a helicopter. What more would you have had me do?"


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## Danaus29 (Sep 12, 2005)

SquashNut, that's awful. 20% is a lot of money to someone just barely making ends meet.


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## Callieslamb (Feb 27, 2007)

shanzone2001 said:


> Amen.
> And the next thing you should do is use the common sense He has given you to prepare your family with food, water, shelter and protection.


Na...do them at the same time! Get right with God...while you sock away some food!


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## timfromohio (Jun 19, 2007)

From a Christian standpoint, I think the perspective is what matters regarding preps. Remember, what we call "preps", ie - the capability to take care of yourself/family, was common sense way of life a little as 60 years ago in parts of this country (still is in rural areas). I've read of folks saying that prepping is not trusting in the Lord - what about the numerous Proverbs that speak to the opposite? I've also read of Christian folks who place all of their trust in gear/training - this is too far the other way.


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## timfromohio (Jun 19, 2007)

While reading HT I was also reading my morning does of Rawles site, survivalblog. I'd recommend everybody check out his opinion on the dollar's outlook for the coming new year:

www.survivalblog.com

scroll down to read his piece


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## Fat Charlie (Sep 9, 2010)

A lot of what's being called TSHTF is really just discontent at the current state and direction of things. I don't mean this as criticism of tinfoil, but semantics. If you see major systemic problems with TWAWKI, that's good. Calling TWAWKI _*TEO*_TWAWKI isn't really accurate. Sun and rain, jobs, power, communications and transport are all still here. There aren't enough of all of them, but the system is still in place for the moment. The OP was asking what event would make you say to yourself "Self, as of this moment you are on an emergency footing. Now go!"

When California admits that it's broke, not many people are going to get thrown into the streets. Who's going to do the throwing, the government that just shut down? Getting rid of debt isn't a SHTF prep, it's an "I think the current order is going to continue forever" prep. When the system crashes, what is this debt of which you speak? How is a bank really going to take someone's car or house when none of its office drones can get to work or process paperwork in a courthouse halfway across the country? TEOTWAWKI, like inflation, rewards debtors. 

For me, the lowest level of balloon going up would be a power loss widespread enough to affect gasoline supplies. That would force me to stay in until the system is restored. I had never heard of this 2003 blackout, which really puzzled me. I just looked it up, saw the date and realized that I had been doing my annual 2 weeks in the woods with a rifle at the time. I was sleeping on the ground and eating MREs before the power even went out! Even if I'd been home, it wouldn't have been a big thing- just another power outage. In August, when the pipes don't freeze and I would probably have been grilling anyway. The one that got me was the ice storm of 2008. My casual preps saw us through, but they weren't organized, intentional preps and with one baby in the house and another on the way, it forced a change.

Riots wouldn't be a tripwire here- we don't do civil unrest or anything like that here in NH. By the time that started here society would have broken down so far that nobody would even hear about the riots unless they were personally involved. Neighboring states? Entitlistas live there and not here for a reason. When the Commonwealth runs dry, those folks aren't going to look to the _Tax Free Or Die_ state as a new source of handouts.


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## Danaus29 (Sep 12, 2005)

Now Charlie, don't go raining HCl all over our little tinfoil hat brigade. But you have to admit TEOTWAWKI can and has meant many different things to different people all over the world. For the older generation of Americans TEOTWAWKI ended on December 7, 1941. That was an earth shattering occasion which led to TEOTWAWKI for many other countries such as Japan. Yes they recovered as we did. But it did cause things to change forever. Just like 9/11 caused an EOTWAWKI, people started to look at many things differently. 

TSHTF can mean different things to different people. Yes, they clean themselves off and get on with their lives but at the time it seems as though nothing will ever be right again. We went through that back in '84/'85 when NCR in Cambridge shut down. Others have been through TSHTF in the form of natural disasters. I'm sure some people still living in NOLO still consider Hurricane Katrina as a local EOTWAWKI.


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## groundhogII (Nov 6, 2008)

timfromohio said:


> There are many balloons here to deal with, but for me, a big one went up about a year and a half ago when we officially monetized our currency. I can't remember what useless tidbit the media was worried about, but they certainly paid no attention to the fact that the Fed starting buying up government securities b/c nobody else showed up to buy them. For me, that was huge. No major news organization, I mean NONE covered this action - IMHO, it was something that every network should have been covering or at least mentioning, but nope.
> 
> What's the first thing to do if you just read Ernie's post? Get right with the Lord Jesus Christ. No offense to anybody else out there, but that's my recommendation for what the first, and most important, prep should be.


I completely agree w/timfromohio on both points.
Let me add to the get right w/JC comment.Eight years ago I had three healthy boys.One day a nuerologist told us that two of my boys were going to die from something called ALD.The third child was just a baby and it was 50/50 if he had ALD also.Long story short,one died,one survived but is now blind w/some mild brain disfunction,third one was spared.Point of sharing this;in a TEOTWAWKI scenerio you will lose loved ones.Jesus Christ gives you hope so you can cope.Earth is not my home,I am only passing through.

Someone asked what you should do now if you are completely unprepared.
Start reading the Bible.Its difficult to accept Jesus as your Lord and Savior if you don't know anything about him.Price:Free
Where are you going to go if you have to abandon your home.We call this a bug out location.Is it a cousin out of state?Wherever,get on the phone and start building a relationship with someone in a safer location than where you currently are.Price:Free
Grab a backpack and fill it with things you would need if you had to walk to your bug out location.Price:free (improve upon this as time and resources allow).


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## Ernie (Jul 22, 2007)

timfromohio said:


> While reading HT I was also reading my morning does of Rawles site, survivalblog. I'd recommend everybody check out his opinion on the dollar's outlook for the coming new year:
> 
> www.survivalblog.com
> 
> scroll down to read his piece


I've put a lot of thought into this point. 

The way I consider it, God didn't just one day come to Noah and tell him to build an ark without giving him some sort of resources to do it. Maybe Noah lived next to a forest. Maybe Noah was in the lumber business. Maybe Noah had been blessed with wealth in abundance to _sustain_ him and his family while they built the ark. 

For whatever reason, if your income is enough now to get by and put a little aside, then the Lord has blessed you and probably has chosen you to survive the judgement that is about to fall across this land. You've been given those blessings in order that you might prepare. Don't squander them.


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## bee (May 12, 2002)

well as good as the Survival blog article referenced is I like the one following it better! Who knew you can use hand sanitizer for a sterno replacement????


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## texican (Oct 4, 2003)

bee said:


> well as good as the Survival blog article referenced is I like the one following it better! Who knew you can use hand sanitizer for a sterno replacement????


Haven't read it yet, (I need to get to work, and survivalblog will have to wait till after dark...)... was it a replacement for cooking purposes, or drinking? I've heard about sterno heads. Don't think there's any hand sanitizers on hand here... I like to fight off germs the old fashioned way! Don't want my white blood cells getting wimpy...:grin:


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## meanwhile (Dec 13, 2007)

Thank you for explaining the Balloon part. I did not know that bit of history.


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## Fat Charlie (Sep 9, 2010)

Danaus29- You're citing actual world changing events. That's real stuff, and the scale doesn't matter a bit. A week after my unit got back from two weeks of Katrina duty, we got called up because some nowhere little town got a little too much rain. It was small and probably didn't get a mention outside of the local news, but the town was devastated. Everyone nearby had to shift to emergency mode, even if nobody outside the town knew or cared.

What I was referring to are the people who think a policy statement by the Fed means that they have to break out the urine filters and start trimming their shrubbery to clear fields of fire. 



shanzone2001 said:


> I see it starting here in CA with the high rate of unemplyment and home foreclosures. I think it will really be a SHTF situation when our state government faces the harsh reality that CA is BROKE and they are forced to stop paying for entitlement programs. How will the people who rely on the government for food, money and shelter survive? It will be VERY scary, to say the least.
> 
> I predict that my family and I will be staying clear of any major cities!!!





Ernie said:


> By the time I became "survival aware" I started realizing the balloon had ALREADY gone up.
> 
> Inflation has been fluctuating as much as 8% over the past decade. Our nation is trillions of dollars in debt to a foreign nation, making the current and all future generations _bondservants_. Since 9/11 we have suffered an unprecedented rise in government tyranny that has turned America into something more akin to Soviet Russia than the land of the free. Manufacturing has almost completely abandoned our nation's shores. Our agricultural system is causing the very soil to _flee_ out from beneath the farmer's fields and the level of toxicity in the food supply we import puts our health at risk.


The OP asked what event would trigger your changing from everyday life to "this is an emergency situation" life. A CNBC report on our quarterly trade deficit with China doesn't count. Past trends in our inflation rate don't count. Having to take off your shoes to board a commercial airliner doesn't count. They are all serious problems and I wish to God that we could elect congresscritters capable of focusing on them. They aren't, however, events that you could call personal emergencies. Just out of curiosity, I checked at the Bank of Canada and saw that their cash exchange rate puts the US Dollar as worth $0.95 Canadian. That also is a bad thing, but the balloon didn't go up. we're still going to take DD to dance class on Monday and I think DW and I are still going to paint the dining room in February like we've planned.


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## machinist (Aug 3, 2010)

Karen said: "The balloon is definitely on it's way up. When imports and exports are no longer based on the U.S. dollar (and with America's debt) our economy will collapse and we're toast. The domino effect will take place and we'll be a third world country within a couple of weeks, if not days."

This is what I think is most likely to happen in the foreseeable future. That means we no longer have the SS checks coming in, and are limited to our own resources. It would mean some serious disruption in everything. Electric companies are money-dependent, too. I think it is possible that govt intervention would be needed to keep the grid going, if the dollar crashes hard. I would expect a nationalization of the electric grid, after all, they already did that with GM, right? In any case, life would deteriorate from there.

So, I watch the economic indicators closely, particularly the dollar index http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX and other makets on that link, notably, oil, gold and commodity prices. As the US economy goes down, the Federal Reserve bank is doing its' best to dilute the dollar hoping to keep the govt financed with funny munny--buying US Treasury bonds with digital entries (they dont even have to print it any more) so the govt can spend to prop the economy. I don't think this is going to last very long, either. 

That all means that I would consider it a SHTF moment if the dollar or US Treasury bonds crashed big time overnight. That could mean an almost instantaneous lockup of the credit and banking system--to use Karl Denninger's words (owner of Tickerforum.org), what he called a "sudden stop" of the economy. Nothing would work like it used to, pretty much what happened in Iceland, but probably much more chaotic in the US. I would expect horrendous price inflation to happen in this case, almost overnight, particularly with the price of imported oil, which would immediately telegraph through the rest of the economy. 

That could mean a devaluation of the dollar relative to tangible goods on the order of anywhere from 50% price increases to 400% increases. This man analyzes complex systems in scientific endeavors, and applied that to our economy with the conclusion of something on the order of $5,000 gold being the result: http://outerdnn.outer.jhuapl.edu/rethinking/VideoArchives/MrJamesGRickardsPresentationVideo.aspx

There are other SHTF moments, too numerous to recount here, but the above is what I see as the most imminent. 

I agree that we won't necessarily have some big dramatic moment of TSHTF, although it could happen. Hopefully, we will have a slow decline that allows everyone some time to learn how to cope with the new problems. If so, then "the balloon goes up" for each individual when THEIR life comes apart.

I am still mindful of the possibility of a fast crash, via the economy or any of several other reasons. The thing is, they mostly end up sorta the same way.


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## Shrarvrs88 (May 8, 2010)

I agree with Ernie, too. I woke up about a year ago now, a little more, a little less...

But as I opened my eyes and looked at the very real EVIDENCE, I realized we are too late, it is time to scrabble together what you can, and brace yourself good. 

As a person so new in this prepping journey, I am working where I can, selling what I can. I own rabbits, even though I am not allowed to. (Actually, in the year I have owned them, they have always been something to hide) rabbits are easy to hide. 

I also partly ignore the "eat what you store, store what you eat" rule. Until I get a good BASIC store, I am building up the very simplist, cheapest, requirements for life. I would rather eat rice and peanut butter than see my children starve to death because I couldn't afford the stuff they are used to in the quanities I needed. 

I am learning how to do things the old way, back to the basics. Printing out useful articles that I have a good idea would be useful, teaching my family (hubby included) what I learn. 

At this point I feel like I am running from a moster...and I didn't even know it was coming. It's gonna catch up to me, how prepared will I be when It gets here? That is simply a combonation of luck and a lot of hard work.


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## Ernie (Jul 22, 2007)

Imagine that the bus we're all in has been driven off the cliff. Some on the bus are still applauding the driver for the exceptionally smooth ride. Others of us are bracing for impact.


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## Fat Charlie (Sep 9, 2010)

And until the bus hits the ground, I'm going to keep showing up for work every day; a preparatory footing is not an emergency footing. You're making good predictions about what's going to happen to the bus, but what will have to happen to the bus for you to switch from prepping for an emergency to living the emergency?


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## Shrarvrs88 (May 8, 2010)

The bus is a much better picture for the feeling, and exactly what I was trying to get. Its a night mare, and only a few people even know there is danger. Thanks, Ernie!

I think for me to realize the bus had crashed, would be for the local stores to close. We have a pretty good system for stocking up food, and if that were gone, it would be chaos. At anyrate...there are other things, too....many things. But really, I guess its a "I'll know it when I see it" deal. I know we are on a fast decline, but I am continuing to prep and get ready, unitl I can't anymore...


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## Ernie (Jul 22, 2007)

Fat Charlie said:


> And until the bus hits the ground, I'm going to keep showing up for work every day; a preparatory footing is not an emergency footing. You're making good predictions about what's going to happen to the bus, but what will have to happen to the bus for you to switch from prepping for an emergency to living the emergency?


I live the emergency every day. So do you.

Your grocery store dollars don't buy as many groceries as they did last year. Your savings are worth less. Your local city infrastructure is crumbling. Much of your food supply is outsourced to either illegal aliens here in the United States or to foreign countries. The local police can't (and don't) protect you and their primary concern now is with revenue generation through enforcement.

After the bus lands, it's _too late_ to brace for impact.

I'm not saying that people need to hunker in the bunker waiting for the shoe to drop. But everything they do these days needs to be geared towards their long-term survival in a failed state. When you buy a pot to cook in you need to consider how long it will last and can you use it to cook over an open flame when they shut your gas off. If you have medical conditions that you've been putting off getting taken care of, now is the time. 

And most importantly, start making friends who believe the way you do. You're going to need their help in order to survive.


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## HTWannabee (Jan 19, 2007)

Seedspreader, I have been thinking a lot about this thread. I am sorry I started to highjack it! We are pretty well off here thanks in great part to THIS forum. We moved out of the suburbs as far into the country as we could with DH keeping his job and the commute not too far out. We have just over 6 acres and NO mortgage. Land is very, very expensive on MA and we feel that God handed us this place on a silver platter and no mistake. We are still paying ourselves the mortgage amount each month so the savings is stacking up. I really had to think of what the balloon would be for us. The balloon would probably be not being able to get at the cash we saved. We have a decent skill set here and good neighbors but no one farms except for us. We have a lot of welfare in MA and I think MA would not cut their benefits since those are the people that put them in office. If welfare was cut people like us would be in serious trouble and one of us would always have to be awake and patroling outside 24/7. There are generations of people here that have never worked and know how to do absolutely nothing - no skills at all. My only hope is that they are too lazy to riot.
The other side of that is that the laws in MA are stacked against the property owner defending his property and if you shoot someone you are just as likely to be in jail yourself. We do not even have guns at this point because of the laws. We need to fix this and just be ready for that possibility I guess. We just had a guy shoot a police officer during a robbery after being let out of jail dispite being given 3 life sentences. That is liberal MA.

We have a big gardern getting bigger each year, chickens, rabbits, turkeys and ducks. We are researching a dairy animal - thinking dairy sheep at this point. Dh is extraordinarily talented at building, fixing or making anything with whatever we have and that is a true blessing! I have learned canning and dehydrating, sewing and still looking for more skills. Hey - I fixed a leaking place in our chicken coop with bubble wrap and leftover rubber roofing! It worked! I think DH was impressed (not). Use what you have is a great skill.


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## Guest (Jan 4, 2011)

Fat Charlie said:


> And until the bus hits the ground, I'm going to keep showing up for work every day; a preparatory footing is not an emergency footing. You're making good predictions about what's going to happen to the bus, but what will have to happen to the bus for you to switch from prepping for an emergency to living the emergency?


 This is a good point.

"The balloon" means different things to different people and those varying scenarios call for different responses.

We have so much discussion here (and on other boards) about "the balloon goes up", TEOTWAWKI, and other such things but seldom does the OP ever give specifics as to what they mean. Then the responders post answers to the original question based on the story that each individual is telling themselves in their heads (and we all do this). Naturally some responses are going to be very different from others and perhaps even at cross-purposes.

As I see this they break down into two _general_ categories.

There are the immediate crises such as wide-scale power blackouts, communications failures, logistical failures, governmental failures and such things that bring about acute, immeidate crises. Pick your scenario ranging from major hurricanes to regional nuclear warfare to world-wide electromagnetic pulse brought on by a direct impact of a major coronal mass ejection and many others besides. The problems are immediate and acute leading one to struggle to survive that day, week, and month. Too me these are what I think of when I hear the phrase "the balloon is going up." 

Then there are the chronic survival problems such as what Ernie relates. These too are important though in varying degrees and in varying time scales. Here go all but the most acute inflation problems, the slow slide into governmental failure or tyranny, pollution, and so on. The potential for some of these problems to become acute (as in the balloon goes up) exists, but mostly they take place slowly over many years giving all but the most oblivious time to at least get started on doing something to cope. Of course there will always be those who never will "get it" all the way until the bus hits the ground, but at some point along the way most every one else is going to realize there's problems they need to start doing something about.

Going back to the way I interpreted Seedspreader's original post my ideas of "the balloon going up" include:

Wide spread communications failures: By this I mean multiple broadcast media, not something that can be explained by the failure of one pont of an important Internet backbone. When I've got a radio that I know works and can't pick up anything on the local FM or AM bands then I'm going to be deeply concerned.

Wide spread power failures: Not just a city or county but multiple states especially if the cause is not immediately apparent.

Multiple satellite failures: Twenty first century industrial civilization, particularly in the U.S., is vitally dependant on satellites for commuincations, observation, and control. Unless there is an obvious cause such as an intense solar storm then the immediate loss of multiple satellites is almost certainly going to be an act of war on the part of a nation that has the technical capacity to pull it off. Such nations often also have other technical capacities which leads me to...

Above ground nuclear detonations: Anywhere in the world an above ground nuclear detonation is going to focus my attention immediately. If the detonation(s) are in the U.S. or one of our important allied nations it's going to put me into emergency action mode right then and there.

Sudden, acute, disease outbreaks: We've had too many close calls this last decade or so. I pay close attention to these things though I don't talk about them the way some folks do. The faster it seems to spread, the more acute the onset, the closer the outbreak it is to me the more likely to figure the balloon just went up.

Off the top of my head those are the things that immediately come to mind. Everything else I can either see coming or are of a smaller or less acute scale.


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## AngieM2 (May 10, 2002)

a 2.5 month old thread.

Why don't you read through it and then add what you think now that the last 3 months, with Egypt, Libya, WI, MI, Japan has happened, just to name a few of the more News Covered events .


Sometimes it's interesting to see the short term history and comparing to what is happening.

Angie


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## lorian (Sep 4, 2005)

Ernie said:


> By the time I became "survival aware" I started realizing the balloon had ALREADY gone up.
> 
> Inflation has been fluctuating as much as 8% over the past decade. Our nation is trillions of dollars in debt to a foreign nation, making the current and all future generations _bondservants_. Since 9/11 we have suffered an unprecedented rise in government tyranny that has turned America into something more akin to Soviet Russia than the land of the free. Manufacturing has almost completely abandoned our nation's shores. Our agricultural system is causing the very soil to _flee_ out from beneath the farmer's fields and the level of toxicity in the food supply we import puts our health at risk.
> 
> ...


Ernie, do you have a blog? You scare me, but I love reading your stuff.


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## Roadking (Oct 8, 2009)

Taxation without representation. That is a big one for me...
Matt


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## Ernie (Jul 22, 2007)

lorian said:


> Ernie, do you have a blog? You scare me, but I love reading your stuff.


http://deliberatewanderer.blogspot.com

It's old and I only post there sporadically now. It goes all the way back to 2004 and sort of chronicles my change from who I was to who I am now. Some like the old me better, but I'm pretty happy with where I am now.


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## bowdonkey (Oct 6, 2007)

Karen said:


> The balloon is definitely on it's way up. When imports and exports are no longer based on the U.S. dollar (and with America's debt) our economy will collapse and we're toast. The domino effect will take place and we'll be a third world country within a couple of weeks, if not days.
> 
> It's just the nature of the beast. America can survive anything -- except economic collapse. People are too use to having too much and have no idea how to take care of themselves and their family. Look at NYC; over 8 million people. Ever wonder how many of them even know how to grow a single tomato plant, let alone provide for themselves and a family? And that's just one city!


Bingo!


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## bourbonred (Feb 27, 2008)

I check the news continually all day long. I try to read intelligent sources and be politically savvy, but still I doubt I'll see the balloon and recognize it for what it is until after the fact. Hindsight is after all 20/20. After the fact, it will be easy to see how this led to that, and because of that, the other thing happened. We plan to bug-in, I have made plans for all the immediate family members to get home from work or school. I have told all those who plan my farm as their go-to location to leave early, but I don't think they take me seriously enough--they'll see the problems too late and be caught in the tsunami of chaos that follows events of this nature. 

I can't slow down to look for balloons--there's too much to do to get ready!


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## Guest (Mar 17, 2011)

These last three months have been one long wake-up call for anyone with the eyes to see the need.

Inflation is slowly mounting. When it's month after month after month it doesn't take a steep inflation rate to hurt you.

The biggest crisis as I see it right now is that of instability and lack of confidence.

We have a sea of problems confronting us. Any one of them a cause for concern in itself, but not to the point that one need feel compelled to take immediate action.

But now the problems are starting to come in twos and threes. The need for concern is increasing. The need to take tangible steps to prepare becoming more apparent and more urgent. However, in my opinion, _there is still no need to panic or do things that will cause you real problems if disaster does NOT strike._ 

The time is now. Get with your preps, whatever they may be. But just at the moment anyway we're still mostly in the watch and get ready mode. NOT in the "balloon is going up go into full blown action mode."

Tomorrow things may be worse still. Or they may begin to get better. Be prepared for both.


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## Cascade Failure (Jan 30, 2007)

I have come to believe there are no balloons, no SHTF, and, unfortunately , no slow zombies. 

Its just my life. 

We buy medical/car insurance not only because the evil PTB have dictated so but, in reality, in many cases it costs us less in the long run. We prepare wills because we will all die sometime. Mundane? Yes. But those are preps.

Let's look at the extreme. How do you prep for a 30 ft wall of water? Maybe, if your lucky you have a fully stocked bugout spot. Not me; maybe one day.

Now another extreme; different end of the spectrum...flat tires. Yup, got a jack, lug wrench and spare. Good to go.

So we try to cover all of the in-between stuff. There was a thread awhile ago about skill sets. I am NEVER going to learn how to grind glass into lenses. Does that make me unprepared? No. I don't raise sheep or spin wool. Am I unprepared? No.

Civil unrest, nuke wars, a cheating spouse, Jack Daniels going out of business, Obama getting re-elected.... whatever. Its just my life. I have a self-sufficient, self-reliant mindset. I am going to do whatever I can to do/be the best I can in life and enjoy it while I'm here.


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## bourbonred (Feb 27, 2008)

I've changed my mind. "The" balloon event that would tell me to tuck it in, would be Obama getting re-elected. As a radio personality pointed out on the show today, If he has accomplished this much devastation in 2 years and still trying to be re-elected, imagine what he would try to push through in 4 years without worrying about being re-elected. :teehee:


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## coalroadcabin (Jun 16, 2004)

Unfortunately, I don't think it will be one single event that will cause TEOTWAWKI. It is going to be a perfect storm of economic woes, natural or manmade disaster and war. 

Right now in the US we are certainly facing economic woes (despite the 'it's getting better' crud the MSM is reporting) AND we are at war or on the verge of war in many areas of the Middle East as well as the unofficial war with drug lords over our boarder in Mexico. 

So we are waiting on one final piece of the triangle - a natural or manmade disaster. What'll it be?......Solar activity, moon too close to the earth, earthquakes in Arkansas, Yellowstone, alien invasion, mass panic over the nuclear troubles in Japan, tsunami, another terrorist attack? Who knows. Maybe we'll skate this time. I hope so. But it's nice to know that I'm getting prepared, just in case.


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## soulsurvivor (Jul 4, 2004)

The ongoing nuclear situation in Japan has been a red balloon for me. I hate not having enough information to make informed decisions that could potentially be needed for survival. Several questions that are rolling around in my little pea brain right now are should I go on and get a greenhouse installed? Should I try to convince DH to spread and secure plastic over the garden to cut down possible radiation contamination of the soil? We just had new neighbors move in next door, first new people in this neighborhood in the last 20 years, and I know they're not preppers and they have 3 children, so do I have "enough" to help them out if they decided to bug in? and where did I put that other mind that was thinking what a treat it would be to move way south, like Paraguay?


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## megafatcat (Jun 30, 2009)

I saw the baloon long ago. Just like those WW1 soldiers it is plainly there but so far behind enemy lines that you can't do anything to stop it. When the shells start whistling is when you duck.


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## InvalidID (Feb 18, 2011)

TEOTWAWKI

Well that's an easy one there. The quake in Japan followed by the nuclear issues is certainly TEOTWAWKI. Mind you I didn't say TEOTW, you HAVE to add as we know it.
This situation will most certainly change the world in a big way for a while to come. But really, for people of our ages that's nothing new is it? The world is vastly different than it was just 15 years ago. Cell phones and internet have reshaped the world into something I wouldn't have recognized as a kid. (That was 15 years ago...)
There have been so many changes in the last 50-60 years that I think we have no point of reference to draw on anymore. History has no examples for much of what we deal with anymore. Did you guys know that a person in the US receives more information on a daily basis than most people received in a year just 50 years ago? How do we deal with that?

As for the balloon going up. It certainly has in Japan. I think this should be a wake up call to anyone that hasn't stored at least a weeks worth of food and water. The Japanese are arguably the most organized people in the world and they are failing to take care of the displaced people there.
That isn't to say the efforts they've put forth aren't heroic. But they are focused mainly on getting those nuclear plants under control, for good reason of course. It does leave a bitter taste in ones mouth to think about how this would have played out in certain parts of the US. 
I think in certain areas it would look quite similar, but others...

If I had to venture a guess as to how it'll happen, IT won't. A long drawn out series of this and that will eat away at the current system, from a tsunami in Japan, A Quake in Haiti, oil spoil in The Gulf of Mexico, a hurricane in the gulf, oil shocks from civil unrest... You get the point.
After awhile this all adds up. The system won't be able to keep up with the poisons, the economic shocks, the mental toll. It'll all just slowly corrode the world wide system and we'll go back to relying on local sources.

If you're area happens to be spared a major disaster, you've prepped and have something to get you past the shocks, I think you're going to be golden.

If not, it's FEMA camps for you. Or Zombie town, or you'll be lucky and die fast.


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## MO_cows (Aug 14, 2010)

Well the UN decision to intervene in Libya is another balloon if you ask me. Is it THE balloon? Time will tell.


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## Darren (May 10, 2002)

soulsurvivor said:


> My husband and I both think that the very worst and maybe the most likely balloon will be a major earthquake in the New Madrid zone. It's the main reason we bought a travel trailer because we know our house would be badly damaged if a major earthquake hits.


I'm one who also thinks that a rare natural disaster will be the SHTF event that creates a monster problem in this country. The reprecussions of a major New Madrid event will do more than destroy large areas of Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee and Mississippi. It will probably change the course of the Mississippi River leading to unimaginable devastation. The infrastructure damage will cut off fuel supplies into the Southeastern, MidAtlantic and much of the Northeastern states.

It will be the dramatic shut down of deliveries due to shortages of fuel that will affect most people. They won't be able to travel and supplies will very difficult to find. A lot of gasoline and diesel is delivered to states bordering the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers by barge. That will be stopped due to damage to locks at some point on the river. The gasoline pipeline that runs from the Gulf area around the southern end of the Appalachians and up into Virginia will also be shut down.

One unknown is whether or not the huge refinery capacity in the gulf region will be lost for an extended period. Unlike Katrina, the places not in the area destroyed by the earthquake will not be flooded. That means some residents will start looting and rioting. Law enforcement won't be able to deal with it. That means martial law. The question is will the National Guard have the fuel to get to those areas.

Our current economic problems are akin to a frog being cooked by increasing the temperature very slowly. Most folks will muddle through somehow. Just as in the Great Depression many will still have jobs. Since people have been led to believe that all they have to do is vote someone out of office and a new administration in to solve those problems, they don't realize the slow cooking process.

A natural disaster on the other hand is immediate. Until it happens you have no real idea of how bad things can be until it's too late. Everything is then disrupted. The real wild card is whether or not fuel deliveries to power plants are disrupted. Depending on the time of the year some plants can continue for some time. Railroads will be destroyed just like highways. Pipelines that feed natural gas into the Midwest and Northeast will also be affected. In the winter that could lead to widespread loss of heating.

New Madrid is the one event I've always had in mind when setting up my place. Some in the past have predicted huge changes in the mid-continent area of the United States due to a geologic process. New Madrid may have that potential. I'm not saying we'll have a new inland sea, but some have predicted that. That was one of the reasons I left Mississippi years ago. It sounds bizarre but similar things have happened in prehistoric history.


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## farmerpat (Jan 1, 2008)

MO_cows said:


> Well the UN decision to intervene in Libya is another balloon if you ask me. Is it THE balloon? Time will tell.


I wondered that myself, especially after Japan's recent events, and the word that there will be MORE unemployment/layoffs because Japanese automakers have shut down the plants in the southern U.S. until further notice. Also especially after oil prices and food prices skyrocketing lately. Also especially with the fact that the politicians haven't even put a budget out yet. How can we afford to be in a war when we can't afford to extend unemployment or continue social security or maintain the roadways or the antiquated power grid? We can't and that's the problem. This country is just FLAT BROKE, and the politicians play a shell game with us, hoping they can fool us just a little while longer.

I hate to say it, but I think the house of cards is starting to fall, and its collapse will only speed up the closer we get to the end. I lay awake nights pondering my preps, and trying to mentally figure out where the "holes" in them are. I get a sick and sinking feeling that they will be put to the test VERY VERY SOON.


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## Darren (May 10, 2002)

The link goes to a map of soils subject to liuquification if New Madrd lets go. Note how many pipleines pass through the area.

http://www.cusec.org/publications/maps/cusecsgmap.pdf


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## Spatula (Feb 10, 2010)

Ernie said:


> Imagine that the bus we're all in has been driven off the cliff. Some on the bus are still applauding the driver for the exceptionally smooth ride. Others of us are bracing for impact.


I'd like to respectfully change this example a little. Instead of a bus, let's imagine we're in an airplane, cruising along quite comfortably. When one engine fails, it's not a catastrophe. When 2 engines fail, it's still not dire. When 3 fail, it starts to look ugly. Then when the 4th fails, you know it'll be bad. However, even then, the plane still can cruise along for a little while. And then ultimately, the landing itself can vary in roughness and can still be survivable, such as the plane that landed safely in the Hudson River. But some planes smash into the ground and burst into flames.
It's certainly debatable how many engines are still running, or where we'll be when it comes down...But the captain (media, etc) keeps announcing that everything is fine, and most people believe it. However some folks can look out the window and see the smoke coming from the engine pod, with pieces falling off, and know better...


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## MO_cows (Aug 14, 2010)

Darren said:


> The link goes to a map of soils subject to liuquification if New Madrd lets go. Note how many pipleines pass through the area.
> 
> http://www.cusec.org/publications/maps/cusecsgmap.pdf


The first map shows there is a refinery just north of Kansas City. That was the Sugar Creek refinery, and it's been closed down for over 20 years. I would bet there are more pipelines today than what is shown on that map.


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