# "Solar Costs Heading Down"



## SolarGary (Sep 8, 2005)

Hi,
I think someone asked about where solar PV costs are headed.

Just ran across this article:
http://www.technologyreview.com/Energy/20927/?nlid=1177

Not sure I really believe it, but would be nice.

Gary


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## Windy in Kansas (Jun 16, 2002)

Gary would it be due in part that the factories in Germany have somewhat fulfilled the big orders to convert a large percentage of the country? They are ahead of schedule by 10% I believe. 

I seem to remember reading that the factories are now looking at supplying vendors outside of Germany which should help to bring down the prices.

New technology is also pushing the lowing of prices. One company claims $1 per watt for their production.

Whatever, it works for me. Maybe I'll be able to afford solar before I die after all.


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## SolarGary (Sep 8, 2005)

Windy in Kansas said:


> Gary would it be due in part that the factories in Germany have somewhat fulfilled the big orders to convert a large percentage of the country? They are ahead of schedule by 10% I believe.
> 
> I seem to remember reading that the factories are now looking at supplying vendors outside of Germany which should help to bring down the prices.
> 
> ...


I think the dollar a watt outfit is Nanosolar. Their CEO said something to the effect that their process would allow them to sell at $1 per watt wholesale -- I suppose that might mean something like $2 per watt for us?
He also said something to the effect that they are in a market, and just because they could sell at this price does not mean they will.
They have all of their production for at least a year committed to some large commercial projects.

But, I guess its all somewhat encouraging. Its making me wonder if I should hold off on buying the panels for my PV system for a while.

Gary


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## Windy in Kansas (Jun 16, 2002)

Waiting for prices to come down could be a bust as more and more consumers experience rising energy prices enter the market in turn driving up the prices.

How true about what they can build for and what they and the almost assured middle man will sell for.


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## WisJim (Jan 14, 2004)

The price figures given in the article must be wholesale or other large quantity or non-retail prices, as the average retail of quality panels is over $4 a watt. Also, I have been hearing that PVs are going to cost $1 or $2 a watt since the 1980s. If I had waited for that to happen, I never would have bought any PVs. As it is, the PVs that I bought back when a 40 watt panel cost $400 dollars (1982 dollars, too) have been working for over 25 years and still work well, and long ago paid for themselves.

And regarding Nanosolar--I talked to a couple of professionals who have never steered me wrong in the past, and their opinion is to not believe everything that you hear or read--it probablly will take longer for them to get to market, and the cost will be higher. I think that the $1/watt is their cost to manufacture the panels, not the retail or even wholesale cost of usable panels.


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## mikellmikell (Nov 9, 2005)

Evergreen Solar is building a factory in Midland Michigan because they have over a BILLION dollars of orders. That should start to bring prices down. They are also building another plant in the south somewhere.

mikell


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## Riverdale (Jan 20, 2008)

mikellmikell said:


> Evergreen Solar is building a factory in Midland Michigan because they have over a BILLION dollars of orders. That should start to bring prices down. They are also building another plant in the south somewhere.
> 
> mikell


United Solar Ovanics (And their spin-off Unisolar) have 2 plants in Greenville,1 in Auburn Hills, and are looking at least 2 more in MI.
They have a product that is a solar shingle. Looks promising!


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## fishhead (Jul 19, 2006)

I saw one of those futuristic articles that claimed that we should soon be able to print out solar panels much like we print of documents on a regular printer.


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## Jim-mi (May 15, 2002)

Just had a conversation at the Mich. Energy Fair with an ex Unisolar guy. . . .about their screwed up *marketing* yahoo's. . . . .his comments are not printable.....

The 64's that they used to make are excellent. . . .but they have decided to go entirely with the 'shingle' bit . . . .giving up one segment of the market for an other. . . . .go figure . . .
And these 'shingles' are to be installed only by factory trained people.

So forget it for the do it your selfer.


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## Nevada (Sep 9, 2004)

SolarGary said:


> I think the dollar a watt outfit is Nanosolar.


Nanosolar and AVA Solar (company names are links). They both have a similar technology where they "print" the PV cells on an aluminum substrate instead of silicon.

I've been chasing that technology for going on 3 years. It's beginning to look like vaporware. They seem to have money, management, promotion, and even a manufacturing facility. They have everything except a product.

I'm not letting that stop my solar project. When you can make your own solar panels with silicon PV cells for around $1.50/watt, plus a few things from Home Depot, there's no realistic reason to wait on possible vaporware.


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## OntarioMan (Feb 11, 2007)

With the rates at which utility costs are rising (electricity, natural gas, propane), solar is becoming more cost effective every day in comparison.


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## crafty2002 (Aug 23, 2006)

I've got a question about Silicon. for the ones that already have solar panels.
How much silicon would you think is in say a 75 watt panel.
The site in the OP said silicon was only $24 a kilo in 2003 and is up to $400 a kilo now. Yet you can still buy silicon chaulking for 5 bucks a tube. 
Just wondering
Dennis


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## Jim-mi (May 15, 2002)

My latest issue of Solar Industry (a trade publication) has as its leading article a good piece about "Solar-grade silicon supply worldwide is expected to grow from 27,000 tons last year to 35,800 tons this year, but worldwide solar cell production is expected to grow by nearly twice as much" etc. etc. 
New silicon refinement capacity is slowly coming on line.

And yes there is more *Thin film* players out there looking for their piece of the market.

Not a word was printed about -Nanosolar-

Vaporware . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .???

Point is . .if nanosolar was\is going to turn the whole industry upside down, . . . .then why are the VERY BIG money folks putting so much in to the conventional product.


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## wy_white_wolf (Oct 14, 2004)

crafty2002 said:


> I've got a question about Silicon. for the ones that already have solar panels.
> How much silicon would you think is in say a 75 watt panel.
> The site in the OP said silicon was only $24 a kilo in 2003 and is up to $400 a kilo now. Yet you can still buy silicon chaulking for 5 bucks a tube.
> Just wondering
> Dennis


PV grade silicon and silicone are completely different.

About as related as apples and watermelon.


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## greg273 (Aug 5, 2003)

mikellmikell said:


> Evergreen Solar is building a factory in Midland Michigan because they have over a BILLION dollars of orders. That should start to bring prices down. They are also building another plant in the south somewhere.
> 
> mikell


 Yeah, I've had Evergreen panels on my roof for a few years now, very impressed with the quality, plus they are American made. Good for them, I am glad they are doing well.
I will be ordering more of their panels soon.


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