# Hold on to your hat...



## seedspreader (Oct 18, 2004)

Well, the way that Obama and Bernanke are backpedaling, I am fully convinced that we are getting ready to take another hill on the roller coaster called life. Hopefully fuel economy is still important while we have cheap gas to you, because it's going to become the prime concern this summer again. Keep building the stocks everyone, spend money you have now on seeds and garden tools. They may be your best investment.

IMO, pay no attention to the market. It's been compromised too far to be a reliable indicator of the economy.

The Fed and PE Obama seem to be on the "let us down gently" plan.

http://money.cnn.com/2009/01/06/news/economy/fed_minutes/index.htm?postversion=2009010615

Also, a different type of prepping. Be diligent to work, be on-time or early, work hard. Ignore the office politics and be kind to everyone. The job you save may be your own... and it might not be now... next week or next month.

You may believe your job is recession-proof... but don't you believe it.


----------



## mnn2501 (Apr 2, 2008)

In the last month we have doubles the size of our garden, tilled in a bunch of organics and bought more canning jars -- Can't wait til spring


----------



## Ernie (Jul 22, 2007)

I've been expanding my farm production as well, on the assumption that some off-farm income may be missing in the next couple of years. I'm praying this is the year that I can fully realize what God has called me to do.


----------



## farmwife (Jan 6, 2006)

Yup! I think the gas prices came down so people would spend for Christmas! Now that is over, so lets put them back up again! Keep money going around! They say they are going up again! At least it was a nice break for the time being!


----------



## lorian (Sep 4, 2005)

Agree with ya seedspreader.


----------



## deuteronomy67 (Jul 3, 2008)

seedspreader said:


> Keep building the stocks everyone, spend money you have now on seeds and garden tools. They may be your best investment.


I totally agree! Just wish our extended family would get it! And the neighbors too!


----------



## seedspreader (Oct 18, 2004)

hmmm, watching the live "break from normal programming" of the President Elect's speech. (Which could be a whole other discussion)

This speech is (IMO) another indicator. Get cracking guys and ladies. Don't be afraid, but be ready.


----------



## texican (Oct 4, 2003)

The first seed catalog showed up today... one of many that's going to get thumbed through.

I'm going into the storm, with eyes wide open...


----------



## Wendy (May 10, 2002)

I already sent in my first seed order. I have a couple of more that will be going soon. Planting more fruit trees & berries also.


----------



## hintonlady (Apr 22, 2007)

Ernie said:


> I'm praying this is the year that I can fully realize what God has called me to do.





ummm, Ernie, good buudy ole pal......

Could you pray slowly? I need just one extra season to get my act togethor. playing homesteader is way different than being fully sustainable.......


----------



## DaleK (Sep 23, 2004)

After waffling for a bit and playing phone tag with fuel suppliers, FINALLY got my diesel supply signed up on a maximum price contract for the next 6 months today. When I explained my thinking to the supplier, apparently it got him thinking as well, when he phoned back to confirm he said he'd called his parent company at the same time and checked what their thinking was on where fuel is going and as a result he signed up for his own supply for the next 6 months for fuel for his fuel, feed and fertilizer delivery trucks, sprayers, and his 1 ton trucks. So I have my price capped at 4 cents/litre above today's price, if it goes down I pay the lower price.

So if I use the same amount of fuel as I did in the first 6 months of 08 it'll save me at least $6000.


----------



## Oldcountryboy (Feb 23, 2008)

What's got me scared about the Obama-Rama plan is what happens if it don't work? After he spends all those trillions of dollars to get the economy rolling again and it still doesn't help, how much more bad is that going to hurt us? If it doesn't work this could make the 30's depression look like a peice of cake. Is this what the great Russian philosper was talking about seeing the end of the Good Ole U.S.A.?


----------



## mnn2501 (Apr 2, 2008)

Oldcountryboy said:


> What's got me scared about the Obama-Rama plan is what happens if it don't work? After he spends all those trillions of dollars to get the economy rolling again and it still doesn't help, how much more bad is that going to hurt us? If it doesn't work this could make the 30's depression look like a peice of cake. .?


 The Bush-a-Rama plan already put our grandkids in debt, whats another generation of debt? Why should the great-grandkids get to keep their money?


:stars:


----------



## pickapeppa (Jan 1, 2005)

mnn2501 said:


> The Bush-a-Rama plan already put our grandkids in debt, whats another generation of debt? Why should the great-grandkids get to keep their money?
> 
> 
> :stars:


Hopefully, if they're left land instead of money, they'll be okay.


----------



## timfromohio (Jun 19, 2007)

Agree with pickapeppa - if you have some good land you at least have a shot at feeding yourself and your family.


----------



## hintonlady (Apr 22, 2007)

Oldcountryboy said:


> the Obama-Rama plan


Reminds me of a name for a bad 80's hair band..........:buds:


----------



## bee (May 12, 2002)

I have GOT to broaden my forum reading choices....you guys have got my stomach in knots!!!!
Informed knots, but knots none-the-less....

I just was out looking at my poultry trying to decide if I should cull more breeders and save the feed now or keep them against a very real need for increases in stock for me and others to raise in this year. Once they are in the freezer I can't go back to plan "B". Then there is the value of less than best breeders to satisfy well armed zombies so as to keep the good ones producing. AH!! what to do???!!


----------



## pickapeppa (Jan 1, 2005)

bee said:


> I have GOT to broaden my forum reading choices....you guys have got my stomach in knots!!!!
> Informed knots, but knots none-the-less....
> 
> I just was out looking at my poultry trying to decide if I should cull more breeders and save the feed now or keep them against a very real need for increases in stock for me and others to raise in this year. Once they are in the freezer I can't go back to plan "B". Then there is the value of less than best breeders to satisfy well armed zombies so as to keep the good ones producing. AH!! what to do???!!


If it were my choice, I'd expand the gene pool and prepare to be selling producers in the years down the road. Select the best for your needs and sell the rest.

Egg + fertilizer + live sales + meat = survival + expansion and progress, all debt free. But I'm a left of center socially speaking, and right of center financially speaking, so this logic may not be the right choice for your current situation.

<tosses in pinch of salt>


----------



## Ernie (Jul 22, 2007)

hintonlady said:


> ummm, Ernie, good buudy ole pal......
> 
> Could you pray slowly? I need just one extra season to get my act togethor. playing homesteader is way different than being fully sustainable.......


We all play at it to various degrees. There are others on this forum who are doing a far better job than I am. 

My biggest concern right now is how I'm supposed to hang on to the little self-sufficient space I've carved out. The government is taxing me right out of it. I can't afford to move, can't afford to pay my taxes without becoming a complete wage-slave, and can't seem to see a solution yet. 

Winnebago county property tax increases make the Irish landlords of 1860 look compassionate.


----------



## pickapeppa (Jan 1, 2005)

Ernie said:


> We all play at it to various degrees. There are others on this forum who are doing a far better job than I am.
> 
> My biggest concern right now is how I'm supposed to hang on to the little self-sufficient space I've carved out. The government is taxing me right out of it. I can't afford to move, can't afford to pay my taxes without becoming a complete wage-slave, and can't seem to see a solution yet.
> 
> Winnebago county property tax increases make the Irish landlords of 1860 look compassionate.


Maybe we need a movement to lower the property taxes of homeschooling and private schooling families.

Is your place ag or residential zoning?

Prop taxes are insane here as well. Insane. They're trying feverishly to keep the property values up here. Everything is overpriced on the market, but anything that's moving is about $70,000 less than it's "market value."

I imagine the tax assessors are NOT looking forward to revolt following next year's tax publications. Perhaps at that point we'll begin to see some realistic property valuations. They're still way out of line.


----------



## ThreeRivers (Nov 26, 2008)

We have a pump and 5000 gallon tank that was put here when this was a large farm. We ended up with the 100 acres and the house etc. So we are putting fuel away with a stabilizer for when it hits 4 bucks again and it will hit 4 bucks again. 

We bought a good tractor etc and we plan to have a garden with enough to can a cellar full and already have the hogs,cows and chickens. Catfish pond loaded. We can grow corn for the livestock as well as hay.


----------



## Ernie (Jul 22, 2007)

pickapeppa said:


> Maybe we need a movement to lower the property taxes of homeschooling and private schooling families.
> 
> Is your place ag or residential zoning?
> 
> ...


We are zoned agricultural. The problem in my area is that all the old farmers died and their children sold their properties to developers, who build $400,000+ homes on every quarter acre. Some new houses went up on my road that are literally million dollar mansions. So they are taxing my land value based on the resell of those houses.

I argued this but didn't get anywhere. I pointed out that the $853,000 mansion next door is over 4000 square feet while my ancient and decrepit farmhouse that's about to fall over is less than 1200. Doesn't matter. It's not the house, it's the land. They claim the 5 acres is valuable enough that someone would want to bulldoze our shack, our barn, our orchard and our gardens and put in yet another big McMansion. My land is not being taxed according to its current use, but rather taxed according to what others near me have decided to use theirs for ... namely selling it for a huge profit. 

I'm seriously considering picking up and moving to the wilds of West Virginia or Idaho. My wife is recommending Alaska and some of my more far-sighted friends are recommending New Zealand.


----------



## pickapeppa (Jan 1, 2005)

Sounds like a great clientele for organic, fresh farm produce of the highest quality, and uniqueness in flavor, superior to all others, and only available in their neighborhood.

;-)

Of course the value of such products is extremely high due to it's scarcity.

Not joking.

I'm afraid the wilds are exactly where these people are heading, everywhere. Which is why they've landed themselves in your neck of the prairie. This mass migration of the monied class is causing formerly affordable areas to become unaffordable, especially in WV and Idaho, unless of course you're willing to accept the picked over properties usually with major defects of one sort or another.

You could probably even sell cut flowers (perennials) for exhorbitant prices due to the convenience of being nearby, and the social benefit of supporting a local business person. It's all the rage these days.


----------



## wyld thang (Nov 16, 2005)

Ernie, if your wife is saying Alaska grab onto that  

Californians are moving to Idaho, nuff said.

Though the snow and cold and bears might pick em off.


----------



## bee (May 12, 2002)

Hey, don't knock WV! That is where I have my little piece of heaven. And still some great parts left to get "lost" in....just watch those wrong turns...why a lot of the state has land with free gas on it(not me*pout*) and then there is our reputation to keep most of the city folks out, I mean who wants to risk havin kids with one leg longer than the other???


----------



## timfromohio (Jun 19, 2007)

Some of you might check out The Deliberate Agrarian blog - fantastic site. 

http://thedeliberateagrarian.blogspot.com/

He had this quote posted the other day:

âBut we would do well to think of ourselves in the same way we used to think about the lost people of the mission field. We have become the new heathen. We Americans are the ones now in thrall to primitive superstitions, such as believing in the power of positive thinking and having faith in ourselves. We are the ones held back by a materialistic worldview that has little conception of the supernatural. We are the ones with brutal customs, such as aborting our infants, neglecting our children, and abandoning and sometimes euthanizing our elders. We have simple, pounding music, and we are uneducated about the realities outside of our tribe. With our limited mind-set, we have trouble grasping the truths of scripture.â
From an article titled, The Old Mission Field by Dr. Gene Edward Veith, in the November 2008 issue of Tabletalk magazine.


----------



## mscoffee (Jan 9, 2009)

Oldcountryboy said:


> What's got me scared about the Obama-Rama plan is what happens if it don't work? After he spends all those trillions of dollars to get the economy rolling again and it still doesn't help, how much more bad is that going to hurt us? If it doesn't work this could make the 30's depression look like a peice of cake. Is this what the great Russian philosper was talking about seeing the end of the Good Ole U.S.A.?


I think I heard he wanted to add 3+ million jobs jobs to the economy. 

Where will the money come from to pay these folks?

I think hyperinflation may be a real possibility in our future, win lose or draw.

I am not a gambler, I've been prepping 
:lookout:


----------



## Ernie (Jul 22, 2007)

timfromohio said:


> Some of you might check out The Deliberate Agrarian blog - fantastic site.
> 
> http://thedeliberateagrarian.blogspot.com/
> 
> ...


I am an avid follower of that blog. It's great! The man inspires me to work harder at what I do.


----------



## timfromohio (Jun 19, 2007)

Ernie - I couldn't agree more. That site if very, very inspring.


----------



## Aintlifegrand (Jun 3, 2005)

mscoffee said:


> I think I heard he wanted to add 3+ million jobs jobs to the economy.
> 
> Where will the money come from to pay these folks?
> 
> ...


I am in the opposite camp... I believe that defaltion will spiral out of control at least for the rest of 09 and the beginning of 10...increasing unemployment to double digits... wage increases are impossible in this environment and that is generally where inflation comes from.. well from that or govt. intervention (resulting in fiddling to create inflation and cause hyperinflation) and God help us all if they think this is the route they want to go... the result would devestate this nation...IMO


----------



## AngieM2 (May 10, 2002)

Think it's going to snow?


Do pigs fly?

And do various outlooks raise people's dander?

Angie


----------



## Ernie (Jul 22, 2007)

wvstuck said:


> Ernie... C'mon over to West Virginia, the property is not over valued, actually the real estate bubble never had to burst here... According to the talking heads, our property never inflated like most of the country and thus didn't have to adjust so steeply. We are a God fearing people, that cling deeply to our guns and religion... Pass a gun law here and you don't get re-elected... Period. Our largest city only has 60,000 people... So the city dwellers don't get to ram laws down our throats. Plenty of country folk to balance it out. Free natural gas in a lot of counties, plenty of coal to burn in your stove, 4 seasons with a mild winter... Wildlife galore to hunt and a great growing season, all with low property taxes


How in the world I ended up in the People's Republic of Illinois I'll never know. Maybe God wants to change this territory and that's why he sent folks like me. There's a few of us up here, scattered around, but we're awful thin on the ground.

I've never met a person from West Virginia I didn't like, wvstuck, and you probably just explained why.


----------



## mscoffee (Jan 9, 2009)

Aintlifegrand said:


> I am in the opposite camp... I believe that defaltion will spiral out of control at least for the rest of 09 and the beginning of 10...increasing unemployment to double digits... wage increases are impossible in this environment and that is generally where inflation comes from.. well from that or govt. intervention (resulting in fiddling to create inflation and cause hyperinflation) and God help us all if they think this is the route they want to go... the result would devestate this nation...IMO


I agree with you about the deflation (IMO possible soon to be depression), I think other gov's are not going to want to be buying our debt here shortly. 

Unfortunately I also believe the gov will keep throwing money at the problem. As the pendulum swings hyperinflation will occur, I cannot see another way for the gov to pay back all the debt they are creating - outside of default. 

And yes I agree this would be a devastation to our nation.


----------



## seedspreader (Oct 18, 2004)

wvstuck said:


> Ernie... C'mon over to West Virginia, the property is not over valued, actually the real estate bubble never had to burst here... According to the talking heads, our property never inflated like most of the country and thus didn't have to adjust so steeply. We are a God fearing people, that cling deeply to our guns and religion... Pass a gun law here and you don't get re-elected... Period. Our largest city only has 60,000 people... So the city dwellers don't get to ram laws down our throats. Plenty of country folk to balance it out. Free natural gas in a lot of counties, plenty of coal to burn in your stove, 4 seasons with a mild winter... Wildlife galore to hunt and a great growing season, all with low property taxes



Uh, look dude, if anyone gets Ernie in the Homesteaders Draft, NW Pa. gets him.


----------



## AngieM2 (May 10, 2002)

I've pulled out the predominately religious proclamations and anti religious statements and put them on a separate LOCKED thread. This is so neither side can get all bent out of shape cause their post was deleted.

And yes, I'm frustrated with both sides.

Angie


----------



## wvstuck (Sep 19, 2008)

NW Pa. is nice too


----------



## capt295 (Dec 2, 2008)

Obama originally said while running for president that he would create millions of new jobs. But he has started crawfishing already. He now says they will save 2 million jobs. Create - save, IMO there is a difference between the two. I have to agree that things are going to get alot tougher before it gets better. Just watching the news everyday and all the large companies that are laying off people. Restaurants, grocery stores, gas stations, around here are closing left and right. I think it is going to take a couple of years before we start to see things get better. Gas is already starting to go up again. How high will it go this time?


----------



## Freeholder (Jun 19, 2004)

Ernie said:


> We are zoned agricultural. The problem in my area is that all the old farmers died and their children sold their properties to developers, who build $400,000+ homes on every quarter acre. Some new houses went up on my road that are literally million dollar mansions. So they are taxing my land value based on the resell of those houses.
> 
> I argued this but didn't get anywhere. I pointed out that the $853,000 mansion next door is over 4000 square feet while my ancient and decrepit farmhouse that's about to fall over is less than 1200. Doesn't matter. It's not the house, it's the land. They claim the 5 acres is valuable enough that someone would want to bulldoze our shack, our barn, our orchard and our gardens and put in yet another big McMansion. My land is not being taxed according to its current use, but rather taxed according to what others near me have decided to use theirs for ... namely selling it for a huge profit.
> 
> I'm seriously considering picking up and moving to the wilds of West Virginia or Idaho. My wife is recommending Alaska and some of my more far-sighted friends are recommending New Zealand.


Ernie, I agree with your wife about Alaska -- there are still parts of Alaska with NO property taxes. If you have no bills, you can live on very little income (which is what you would have in those parts of Alaska, LOL!)I've got to head for town, but will check back in here later from work, if I have time -- the computer there is a lot faster which helps with this slow-loading website.

Kathleen


----------



## Cyngbaeld (May 20, 2004)

Then, there is Texas. LOL Some of the counties have decent taxes. Some don't. Ag exemption is great though. BTW, it isn't -60* here!


----------



## Terri (May 10, 2002)

I do NOT think that Obama is going to be a bad president. I am not expecting any new hills at this time.

But, we are not over THIS hill yet, so it is a moot point! We still have a ways to go, yet!

My household is still good until June or so: then the new contracts will be signed and we will know if DH still has a job or not.

It is good to have meat put by.


----------



## seedspreader (Oct 18, 2004)

> NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The retail industry's leading trade group blamed a "deep recession, severe winter weather and five fewer shopping days" for a 2.8% drop in 2008 holiday sales - a far worse outcome than the industry expected.
> 
> The National Retail Federation had originally forecast holiday sales for the combined November-December shopping months to grow 2.2%, which would still have been the weakest pace of gain in at least six years.
> 
> ...


http://money.cnn.com/2009/01/14/news/economy/nrf_holidaysales/index.htm?postversion=2009011411


----------



## Stormy_NY (Dec 8, 2007)

I knew they were lying ....... All during the season the local news was pumping this carp that EVEY ONE was shopping .... everything looked rosie .....Interviewing all the store managers at the malls. 

Another lesson for wifey ...... I called it from the beginning .... then right after Christmas, Walmart came out with their numbers. Loss.


----------



## pickapeppa (Jan 1, 2005)

Prices are starting to look better now though. If they hadn't pumped them up so darned high to begin with, maybe things would have been different.

Guess we're finding out where the end of the money hits first. There may not be supply shortages, but there might be shortages of middle men. I'm sensing a new direction for manufacturers to get their goods to market. Direct to consumer.

Stock in shippers anyone? Internet drop shippers?

Those big buildings full of shelves and employees are quickly becoming unsustainable.


----------



## Stormy_NY (Dec 8, 2007)

I dont know about that pick... I think mostly it is lack of work problems. How many millions of construction workers are not working. People just dont have the money to spend and buy. Although down where I grew up in north Jersey it is life as normal so far.


----------



## pickapeppa (Jan 1, 2005)

Stormy_NY said:


> I dont know about that pick... I think mostly it is lack of work problems. How many millions of construction workers are not working. People just dont have the money to spend and buy. Although down where I grew up in north Jersey it is life as normal so far.


True. But as those numbers swell, and more stores go belly up due to the high overhead, businesses have to adjust how they reach their markets. It's one way to reduce costs for both ends.


----------



## Stormy_NY (Dec 8, 2007)

pickapeppa said:


> True. But as those numbers swell, and more stores go belly up due to the high overhead, businesses have to adjust how they reach their markets. It's one way to reduce costs for both ends.


I agree with that to a point .... I buy online things for things I cant get in box stores..... Online shopping is great till you add in the shipping. 

That is why I do not use ebay anymore ..... Shipping is just nuts.


----------



## pickapeppa (Jan 1, 2005)

Stormy_NY said:


> I agree with that to a point .... I buy online things for things I cant get in box stores..... Online shopping is great till you add in the shipping.
> 
> That is why I do not use ebay anymore ..... Shipping is just nuts.


Either they'll come down in price too, and maybe slash wages to make it happen, or go belly up. At some point will be stabilization. The question is, how low does it go before that happens.

I don't see widespread shortages of items, not yet. We already have pockets of revolving shortages here and there, and have had at least since March.

I see shortages for people who can't afford to buy. The number of which will determine how many businesses go under.

We've reached the point where business practices of slashing wages and by-passing taxes have shot themselves in the feet.

Call it the era of trickle up poverty.


----------



## seedspreader (Oct 18, 2004)

When citigroup reaches $5.00 the 401K's HAVE to sell from my understanding. They are hovering right above 5 right now. They may crash and burn this week.


----------



## pickapeppa (Jan 1, 2005)

seedspreader said:


> When citigroup reaches $5.00 the 401K's HAVE to sell from my understanding. They are hovering right above 5 right now. They may crash and burn this week.


Just the 401K's or would their government counterpart of 403b's have the same rules?

What happens to all those retirement accounts if they sell? Refunds with a huge loss?


----------



## Stormy_NY (Dec 8, 2007)

http://www.cnbc.com/id/28656358


----------



## seedspreader (Oct 18, 2004)

Yeah, I meant to post earlier and hadn't seen the update.

4.53 right now. Tomorrow should be an interesting day.


----------



## pickapeppa (Jan 1, 2005)

Stormy_NY said:


> http://www.cnbc.com/id/28656358


Got it. Thanks.


----------



## seedspreader (Oct 18, 2004)

From that article:



> But the company's market cap remains close to $30 billion and it is a recipient of federal bailout funds, putting it in a stronger position to continue than some of the other large banks that have folded in the past year.
> 
> "You probably would see fund managers, if they really like Citi, to hold out for the quarter to see if it pops back above $5," said Steven M. Roge, portfolio manager at the Roge Partners Fund.
> 
> Also, the question of whether to dump Citi in many cases wouldn't be made by the fund managers themselves but rather by the authorities who control what stocks are placed in individual indexes.


and



> "We thought Citi was OK with the TARP bailout. But now that we are learning that they are selling their proverbial crown jewel i.e. Smith Barney, what does that tell us?" said Peter J. Tanous, president and director of Lynx Investment Advisory. "That sends a very different message of a dire and urgent need for capital beyond the billions that the government has already pumped in. Clearly the message is that Citi is not out of the woods."


----------



## seedspreader (Oct 18, 2004)

Furthermore...

The reason that the credit market isn't "unfreezing" is because these banks were leveraged at 30 or 40 to 1 and just paying their deficits, means they may "break even" on paper for their initial deficit, but that's at 30 or 40 to 1.

TARP isn't doing anything except slowing down and spreading out the crash... IMO.


----------

