# Possible prep heads up.



## Guest (Jan 26, 2011)

It looks to me like the Middle Eastern pot is fast approaching a rolling boil. This might could make things a bit tense in that region for a while as Egypt threatens to go the way of Tunisia. There is also the still developing P.L.O. & Al Jazeera scandal in Palestine as well as the developing Lebanese government crisis. We may be seeing a domino thing in progress.

Now how this should affect your preps is hard to say. If nothing else if you haven't rotated your fuel supply in a while this is a good time to do so. Or expand it if you can do it safely.


----------



## Ernie (Jul 22, 2007)

I've been watching this as well. Egypt has been our most stable ally in the region for a very long time. If they go under then we're going to see some real problems.

Some Egypt facts:

They have the largest population in the Arab world.
45% of Egyptians live in urban areas and are dependent on imports for food and water.
Egyptian oil production is centered in the Gulf of Suez where the remainder of their oil reserves are.
The government of Egypt maintains full control of the oil industry.
Though it has much lower reserves than Saudi Arabia, Egypt does have much higher refining capacity.


----------



## Pelenaka (Jul 27, 2007)

We were watching the news yesterday when they showed a clip of the riot police being carried away by the crowd in Cairo. Don't ask me why this video clip was more unnerving than other simular ones that I have seen but it gave me the chills.

~~ pelenaka ~~


----------



## Ode (Sep 20, 2006)

This whole mess in Egypt got me thinking about the American families that might be living there. A situation like the current one isn't something we are used to living with at all, so they have to be very worried at the very least. A few weeks ago I was watching the House Hunters International show, and it was on a family moving to Egypt. The wife was American, and their kids had been born and raised in America, but the husband wanted to be closer to his family (he was Egyptian) so they were relocating. At the time, I was thinking how beautiful the city was, but how crazy it was to move to the Middle East as an American even if everything seemed pretty stable at the time. If anything happened, she didn't speak Arabic at all, so she was at a very extreme disadvantage at best. And that husband is the one who will have all the rights if they should split up.

Some people just do not think things through very clearly, and I found it rather surprising that the husband would want to move an American family to a place where his family could be put in danger from extremists. And even more surprising that his wife agreed.


----------



## texican (Oct 4, 2003)

Something is seriously wrong in the ME... when all of the troubles can't be lain at the feet of Israel. Imho, All of the ME countries have had the luxury of a bugaboo in their midst, a Jewish scape-goat. All of their citizen's problems were the problem of the Jews... Of course it wasn't true, but it worked like a charm for decades. Now a lot of the folks, with the blessings of the internet, are realizing their woes are unique to the region, and not solely the fault of a progressive Westernized democracy in their midst.

Like Alan said... Egypt, Tunisia, the Al-Jazeera fiasco, Lebanon becoming Hizbollahstan, next to Hamasstan... all starting to boil over. You know Israel is running their preps 24/7.

Stuxnet probably saved us from severe 'troubles'...

If several of the thugocracies fail, in an Islamic mullah mind meld, they could lash out at their standard common enemy, Israel. To me, a gang bang on Israel, could force them into getting jiggy with all their enemies.

I recall reading something recently whereby Israel said it would not be restrained the next time it was attacked. If Israel had gotten serious, Lebanon would still be crawling out from under the rocks.

You've got an Irresistible Force racing toward an Immovable Object. And the Immovable has nukes.

....................................
Hoping to get my BIL tied up this weekend, at his mom's place, so I can snag the bulk diesel tanks. I'm down to a barrel's worth. I need to have 500 gallons on hand, especially with the new diesel engine on the sawmill. 

Having extra fuel on hand could be a hugely important prep item.


----------



## Cyngbaeld (May 20, 2004)

I'm thinking the same thing. The Arabs may decide that instigating an attack on Israel would solve the problem of the people's dissatisfaction with their gov.


----------



## insocal (May 15, 2005)

Cyngbaeld said:


> I'm thinking the same thing. The Arabs may decide that instigating an attack on Israel would solve the problem of the people's dissatisfaction with their gov.


Sadly, a move like that will not end well for the attacking nation(s). Israel won't pull its punches next time.

I may not approve of a lot Israel does, but they do have the right to defend themselves if atacked.


----------



## hintonlady (Apr 22, 2007)

I hope Texican is wrong but I am concerned that he isnât.

IMHO, since 1967 the Israelis have exercised an extreme level of restraint in all of their interactions with hostile forces. Time and again they have been urged by the US to hold back in their actions. Generally, they comply and in individual situations are not generally the aggressor. In each of the aforementioned actions the restraint was by choice, not a limitation of means or abilities. Anyone who has an idea of their technology and âequipmentâ knows that there are many aces in the hole relative to their foes. Lets us not forget their creativity, counter intelligence capabilities and surprising tactics.

What we have here is a misinformed populace ruled by recklessly brazen leaders who greatly overestimate their abilities when poking the sleeping Israelis with a stick. It is not wise to throw rocks at a gunfight. I mean that literally. The people of Israel literally have nowhere to go, nowhere. Every workplace, residence or business has a bomb shelter within a couple hundred yards. It has been this way for decades. Backing them into a corner can only result in two outcomes. Their enemies perish -or- they and their enemies perish. 

Enough said.


----------



## Cyngbaeld (May 20, 2004)

When Israel wins this one, I expect the Arabs already living in other countries are going to explode in anger towards the western nations.


----------



## Astrid (Nov 13, 2010)

Ode said:


> This whole mess in Egypt got me thinking about the American families that might be living there. A situation like the current one isn't something we are used to living with at all, so they have to be very worried at the very least. A few weeks ago I was watching the House Hunters International show, and it was on a family moving to Egypt. The wife was American, and their kids had been born and raised in America, but the husband wanted to be closer to his family (he was Egyptian) so they were relocating. At the time, I was thinking how beautiful the city was, but how crazy it was to move to the Middle East as an American even if everything seemed pretty stable at the time. If anything happened, she didn't speak Arabic at all, so she was at a very extreme disadvantage at best. And that husband is the one who will have all the rights if they should split up.
> 
> Some people just do not think things through very clearly, and I found it rather surprising that the husband would want to move an American family to a place where his family could be put in danger from extremists. And even more surprising that his wife agreed.



Having lived for 2 years in Kuwait, and having traveled to many Arab countries, I just want to remind you that a lot of the sound bites you get are exactly that... sound bites. I never once felt nervous about being in the ME, I never once was searched/questioned/treated like a criminal when traveling like we are in the US. I'm not saying that I loved it and want to live there, I'm simply saying that just because its on CNN doesn't mean that it is a widespread problem and that the country is falling apart. 

About Egypt being a "beautiful country"... it really isn't. It has some interesting historical monuments, but most of the country is in horrendous poverty living on the edge of a desert. People usually move to these places for their jobs or family obligations. There are huge expat populations that actually keep these countries running. It isn't a horrible life and expats are treated very well.


----------



## hintonlady (Apr 22, 2007)

Cyngbaeld said:


> When Israel wins this one, I expect the Arabs already living in other countries are going to explode in anger towards the western nations.


Though I think this would be ridiculous of any of them to do I suspect that it is likely they would. It would just further alienate them and cause even bigger drama on a world wide scale. Taking out frustrations on other nations who honestly have no say or part in it is pointless. Holding the whole world hostage through terror in order to strong arm their enemy?

I've heard of befriending your enemies foes but alienating your enemies potential allies, that is just plain ignorant. Makes as much sense as me getting mad at Ernie and taking it out on Texican. Why not, they both talk to each other and hang out in the same forum? Makes complete sense to me. 


I wonder though, IF Israel felt a preemptive strike on Irans nuke facilities was in order who benefits the most besides them? Only one guess here folks.......(assuming we all don't end up ashes)

Interesting link:
http://www.commondreams.org/view/2010/01/11-1

Just another random thought. If the Israelis thought it was unsafe to turn the entire ME into a sheet of glass what other massive deadly force could they use that their people would be safe from? (refer back to link). Not unleashing a biblical type plague but certainly nasty none the less.


----------



## Guest (Jan 27, 2011)

I'm going to take this in a different direction than the usual "everyone jumps Israel" route.

IF Egypt does not soon settle down I am more concerned with a domino effect. Tunisia is a small nation with a pretty highly educated work force (albeit with a high unemployment rate among them). They're not like a lot of the rest of the Middle East. Egypt is a very large nation, some eighty million people as I recall. A very large number of them are badly educated and living in real poverty. It's still too soon to say whether this is going to snowball into something still larger than what it already is. IF it does however this is going to send even larger reverberations through the Middle East than what Tunisia has done. If a popular uprising can topple even the Egyptian government (rotten and corrupt) there are going to be A LOT of people in other Middle Eastern nations that are going to seriously entertain the idea that they might be able to do the same in their nations.

This may all still damp down. I think we'll have a pretty good idea by tonight or tomorrow night. If it does fizzle then we are back to more or less what we had before Tunisia. If it continues to ramp up then things are going to start going sideways. Perhaps in a big way.

There are a lot of corrupt governments in the Middle East and a lot of people who are desperately poor who want things to change. There is a very real danger that if Egypt falls then real democracy may break out all over. Considering that the United States (and other major powers) have supported despots, kings, and dictators all over the region it doesn't take much imagination who a great many of those newly empowered repressed people are going to support.

If you ask me the pucker factor in the House of Saud is probably getting kind of high right about now. IF Egypt goes the way of Tunisia they'll be heading for bleeding ulcers right quick. In an otherwise perfect world I'd say their fall would be a good thing, but here in the real world it's going to mean no end of disruptions as the cascade failure progresses. Disruptions that are likely to send energy prices skyrocketing.

Tonight, maybe as late as tomorrow or the day after, we ought to have a better idea if this is going to amount to anything or not.

I have very mixed emotions about all of this. It wouldn't hurt my feelings at all to see a lot of corrupt and despotic government officials heads on pikes. But if it really does come to that the governments that replace them are quite likely not going to be our friends. And in the interregnum between the fall of the old and the rise of the new things are going to be crazy.

Will the Egyptian government stand or fall?


----------



## Wisconsin Ann (Feb 27, 2007)

http://www.egyptdailynews.com/ is pretty interesting, found some others. As well as the BBC.co.uk Middle East version. 

http://www.onlinenewspapers.com/egypt.htm is a link page for many of the newspapers from Egypt that are online. The home page has links to almost every country's newspapers. Interesting differences in "the take" on various stories.


----------



## Ohio dreamer (Apr 6, 2006)

Crud! Guess my sheeple tendencies are showing (we all have them occasionally). I've been so busy with the issues in our own home I forgot to look out the window at what was going on in the US and World.....it's been an "odd" month here. I saw the Egypt thing on the news the other day (one of those 10 sec tags) and never gave it a second thought. Wonder what else I've missed the last few weeks. 

Unfortunately, fuel is one of those things we can't stock up on.....DH is totally uncomfortable with have it around in anything bigger then a 5 gal jug. I get his point we live in town, BUT....I wished he'd cave to me. But it's his job, as head of the house, not to.

Thanks, AT, for slapping me upside the head, lol. Seems I get more real news from this board then I do from anywhere else these days (DH is starting to say if it's not on HT I don't think it's news worthy). Now off to finish reading the thread and follow some links.


----------



## Ernie (Jul 22, 2007)

Some of Egypt's latest protests have drawn groups over 100,000 strong. Some folks who have been in exile have returned and the government is powerless to arrest them or kick them out again. 

This is (so far) a popular uprising that is aimed at creating a more representative form of government that what they've had, but these things have a way of getting out of control.

Watch for a guy named "ElBaradei" to hit the headlines between today and this next week. He's been living in exile in London and is a big critic of the United States. He's very pro-democracy for Egypt, but he represents a very growing anger in the region. The Egyptian government may have him arrested or killed. If so, the lid will blow off that pot faster than you can say "King Tut".


----------



## tab (Aug 20, 2002)

Caught part of the news report, heard the phrase "heating up" and something about spreading to Yeman. I was reading a story on Beck's site about Google and TPTB......including the NSA....Anyway, from what I caught, it does not sound like it is settling down.


----------



## Ernie (Jul 22, 2007)

It's fascinating to follow. Revolution in the internet age. I'm working on an article right now to discuss how the dissidents in those countries are using social networking sites to educate, inform, and organize against the government.

To my surprise, Facebook stepped up and helped out the folks in Tunisia. When the government tried to deny the citizens access to Facebook because youth protestors were using it to rally and get the word out, Facebook administrators circumvented them and set up alternate secure servers. One can only hope they show such spirit when confronted with our own tyrannical government. Ignoring a failing government that has no jurisdiction over you is one thing. Spitting in the eye of the American leviathan is quite another.


----------



## KarmaKar (Nov 3, 2010)

FOX News just reported that Egypt has just shut down all access to technology, the web, cell phones, Facebook, Twitter etc.

Ouch. Hope it is temporary and very short term. I tend to worry too much anyway, but the unrest and potential problems you all have outlined above scare me.

I heard back in late October that our preps needed to be able to carry us through for at least six months and ready before then. Nothing specific threatened, but from Homeland Security as the source. I just don't think I am there yet. Or at least not where I wish to be.

I would appreciate the feedback of those of you wiser than I.

Karen eep:


----------



## oregon woodsmok (Dec 19, 2010)

My big worry is that the people will overthrow their corrupt governments and discover that their leadership has been taken over by radical religious fanatics. It's happened before in the Middle East.

Any additional protest will then be quelled with machine guns and not tear gas or water cannons, and the people will discover they are not better off, not at all.


----------



## hintonlady (Apr 22, 2007)

At the time of this post it is 5:30 a.m. in Egypt, sunrise is at 6:48 or about 10:47 p.m. in my time zone. 

By the time we wake up in the morning the aftermath will be all that remains.

Cutting off their source of contact will only fuel the fire. The spark had already started smoldering.

Alea jacta est.


----------



## hintonlady (Apr 22, 2007)

Found a random Egyptian Americans twitter page, some highlights:

*Protesters expect a masacre
*Water cut off in some parts of Cairo
*Protest to start around 1 a.m. US time, no idea which time zone
*The protest start time is after fajr prayers (BTW, many mosques use loud speakers to broadcast call to prayer, audible at a great distance. Who needs internet?)
*Protest planned in DC in front of white house
*Protests planned in front of various Egyptian embassies
*Protesters expect US to pressure Egyptian gov.


Please note, none of this info is verified, just a glance at a twitter page.


----------



## tab (Aug 20, 2002)

Ernie, there is a whole lot of info about that subject on Beck's site, iirc it is under his notes section. Just an fyi as you seem to like multiple sources of info.
Hintonlady, are you in central time? Eastern for me, will make sure to catch the news and check the web in the AM.


----------



## tab (Aug 20, 2002)

Fox reported the dude Ernie mentioned gave a boost to the cause by showing up. I may have to get up tonite to check on this story.


----------



## Guest (Jan 28, 2011)

It's getting even crazier over there and now it's spread to Yemen.


----------



## Txsteader (Aug 22, 2005)

Ernie said:


> Watch for a guy named "ElBaradei" to hit the headlines between today and this next week. He's been living in exile in London and is a big critic of the United States. He's very pro-democracy for Egypt, but he represents a very growing anger in the region. The Egyptian government may have him arrested or killed. If so, the lid will blow off that pot faster than you can say "King Tut".


Breaking news: ElBaradei has just been detained. Al Jazeera has live feed of happenings in Egypt. Reporters saying things getting worse by the moment. Massive protests.


----------



## Rainy (Jan 21, 2010)

Not a good day there... been watching whats going on when can on CNN. Not Good!


----------



## Ernie (Jul 22, 2007)

Txsteader said:


> Breaking news: ElBaradei has just been detained. Al Jazeera has live feed of happenings in Egypt. Reporters saying things getting worse by the moment. Massive protests.


The live feed is pretty awesome. Revolutions are a particularly interest of study for me.


----------



## Pink_Carnation (Apr 21, 2006)

The breaking news headline I just saw is "Open Revolt on the Streets of Cairo" It looks like a bad year for the middle east.


----------



## Cyngbaeld (May 20, 2004)

http://www.thedailynewsegypt.com/


ETA: Looks like they took this news site down when they took down the internet in Egypt.


----------



## Ernie (Jul 22, 2007)

Watching live news on AlJazeera, it looks like the army is joining with the protestors and has even had clashes with the police. That's the death knell for the government. 

The army has a large force of conscripted personnel. The police are all volunteer and are seen as the tools of oppression.


----------



## Txsteader (Aug 22, 2005)

Ernie said:


> Watching live news on AlJazeera, it looks like the army is joining with the protestors and has even had clashes with the police. That's the death knell for the government.
> 
> The army has a large force of conscripted personnel. The police are all volunteer and are seen as the tools of oppression.


Which is not good, because if the government falls, there will be a vacuum...and, waiting in the wings, the strong presence of the Muslim Brotherhood among protesters.


----------



## Txsteader (Aug 22, 2005)

Oil up 4% to $89.54 today.


----------



## tab (Aug 20, 2002)

One news story stated some "expert" that said there is already a shadow government in place. The same person stated the Muslim Brotherhood was simply jumping on the band wagon. Does that sound reasonable to those of you withknowledge of this situation?


----------



## Txsteader (Aug 22, 2005)

It's my understanding that ElBaradei has formed an alliance with the MB for the purpose of mobilizing the masses. How the MB will be handled should Mubarak's regime be ousted remains to be seen.


----------



## Cyngbaeld (May 20, 2004)

Protesting in Jordan now.


----------



## Ernie (Jul 22, 2007)

The Egyptian president has vowed to sack his entire government (except for himself) and replace them ALL tomorrow. 

Yeesh.


----------



## Ode (Sep 20, 2006)

Things are quickly ramping up there and it's getting ugly. Personally, I am very concerned about what this could lead to. The Suez canal. Fuel prices and availability. Security abroad and at home, particularly if the current government is replaced by an islamic regime. The people chanting for democracy and reform might well end up under a much more repressive regime and I can't see how it could be good for us in any way.


----------



## tab (Aug 20, 2002)

I am going to try to find a way to stock some kerosene, I do not think any petro prices are going down any time soon. Makes me think that waiting for anything right now is not a good idea.
France, Greece, Eygpt and more have all experienced riots, it doesn't seem like such a stretch to see it go across the pond. (Sorry for the thread drift.)
This reminds me of the Billy Joel song, We Didn't Start the Fire.


----------



## Txsteader (Aug 22, 2005)

Essentially, what we've witnessed was the Egyptian version of a 'tea party'. They were adamant that these protests be strictly about the people and that no political leader be allowed to lead the protests. They were discouraged from carrying political/party signs, etc.

Reporters are saying that the protests will not stop until Mubarak, himself, is gone.


----------



## Guest (Jan 29, 2011)

So then. Does the army come in on the side of the government, the protesters or stand neutral doing nothing more than protecting public buildings?

Tomorrow may be it one way or the other.

I've been listening to news stories concerning Egypt all day and it's given me a lot to think about.


----------



## Wisconsin Ann (Feb 27, 2007)

Alan, a number of the Arab nation news sites (and some of the US ones) have reported a number of scenes where the police are seen hugging the protesters, and some where they stripped off their uniforms and joined them. Now...that could be because they were being overwhelmed and decided they needed to join the protesters or die...:shrug:

It's an interesting look at the way countries emerge, change, counter. 

These people literally have NOTHING to lose. Over 50% of the country lives on the equivalent of $2.00 a day. Poverty level is high high high and there's no hope of elections changing anything for the past 30 years.

And while Iran is probably cackling with glee....no one is really reporting this started as anything religious or really...political. It's people demanding that the government listen to them. They don't seem to care WHAT government they have as long as it's not the same old problems...a few in power, everyone else poverty stricken. (at least..that's how it WAS...tomorrow may be a whole new ballgame again.)


----------



## Ernie (Jul 22, 2007)

A.T. Hagan said:


> So then. Does the army come in on the side of the government, the protesters or stand neutral doing nothing more than protecting public buildings?
> 
> Tomorrow may be it one way or the other.
> 
> I've been listening to news stories concerning Egypt all day and it's given me a lot to think about.


The reports have been pretty sporadic. For awhile the protestors were high-fiving the military. Then we heard reports of the military supporting the police. Then fighting with the police. And then later we heard of the military doing nothing but protecting museums, tv stations, and other key infrastructure.

It's difficult getting any good info out of this.


----------



## Guest (Jan 29, 2011)

Yes, it is.

I think shutting off the Internet backfired on the government. It seems to have driven still more people out into the street. Something to think about there.


----------



## Ernie (Jul 22, 2007)

A.T. Hagan said:


> Yes, it is.
> 
> I think shutting off the Internet backfired on the government. It seems to have driven still more people out into the street. Something to think about there.


Yeah. And they don't have the Super Bowl to placate the masses. 

They shut off the internet and then jammed cellphone towers. Our government got on television and was very specific in NOT showing support for Mubarek, but yet the protestors on Al Jazeera are holding up tear gas canisters that were fired at them to show the "Made in USA" label. Most of the money that has gone to support Egypt's corrupt government came out of the Camp David accords, from what I understand. 

What we're watching is an example of blowback. Also, the Egyptian military and police forces are trained by Americans, so the tactics they are using are essentially from our own playbook. 

If we ever see widescale rioting like that here in the United States, this is what it will look like.


----------



## Guest (Jan 29, 2011)

A.T. Hagan said:


> I've been listening to news stories concerning Egypt all day and it's given me a lot to think about.


Same here.


----------



## Karen (Apr 17, 2002)

A.T. Hagan said:


> Yes, it is.
> 
> I think shutting off the Internet backfired on the government. It seems to have driven still more people out into the street. Something to think about there.


ABC News was reporting that people were going door-to-door to get others to join. It could be the beginning of the end, but it sure is fascinating!


----------



## donewithcity (Sep 9, 2010)

Intersesting that you can close big pipes on the internet, but communication can and always will flow. Don't throw out your old modems just yet.
http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2011/01/28/old-technology-helps-egyptians-communications-black/


----------



## Guest (Jan 29, 2011)

I found an Egyptian news service to follow on Twitter: DailyNewsEgypt


----------



## Guest (Jan 29, 2011)

From CBS News:

*Cairo: Security Vacuum as Police Vanish*

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2011/01/29/world/main7296911.shtml


----------



## Ernie (Jul 22, 2007)

One of the sources I subscribe to is STRATFOR. I'll probably let my subscription run out after this year as I don't really need it anymore, but it's a great source for deep intelligence articles.

Here's one of their free ones:

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20...99e3e651e9542de9d0affa2abd4b4ba#ixzz1CS6MEKOt

According to the article, the border guards at Gaza have abandoned their post and Hamas armed men are pouring into Egypt with the suspected aim of supporting the Muslim Brotherhood.

Meanwhile back in the rest of Egypt, plainclothes security forces have been looting museums and burning private property in an attempt to discredit the protestors as nothing more than thugs. In some cases, the police (as the only ones armed) have turned into little more than bandits and have been stealing cameras and other expensive equipment for their own gain.


----------



## TnAndy (Sep 15, 2005)

Two more drums of diesel put away today. $320, but could be priceless down the road.


----------



## Guest (Jan 29, 2011)

Ernie said:


> One of the sources I subscribe to is STRATFOR. I'll probably let my subscription run out after this year as I don't really need it anymore, but it's a great source for deep intelligence articles.
> 
> Here's one of their free ones:
> 
> ...


Well, if I wasn't worried before, I am now. :shocked:


----------



## Guest (Jan 29, 2011)

I didn't read the article, but saw a headline saying that hundreds are marching from Cambridge to Boston to support the Egyptians. 

I hope something doesn't start spreading HERE.


----------



## Pouncer (Oct 28, 2006)

Tunisia, Yemen...this is going to continue spreading. I watched some of the live AlJazeera broadcast yesterday at my work computer. Gave me the willies, and then some. Last night I caught some FOX commentator who had someone on the phone in Cairo. Very different slants, between what is really happening on the ground, and what AlJazeera is suggesting.

I wish there was some way to target the jihadists/extremists, and allow the peaceful protecting to continue until their voices are heard. The military might well throw in with the MB, and this is would send a loud, and very bad, message to other countries.

Expect to see oil futures skyrocket. We're already pushing $3.50 a gallon as it is. One lousy stinking bomb and the whole place will end up a smoking glass mess. Too many hot heads, too many arms, too little patience, too many radicals.


----------



## Guest (Jan 30, 2011)

Now there are demonstrators in Chicago supporting Egyptians. :stars:


----------



## Ernie (Jul 22, 2007)

ladycat said:


> Now there are demonstrators in Chicago supporting Egyptians. :stars:


In Los Angeles too.

Not a big deal so far. *I* am in support of the Egyptian demonstrators. They aren't trying to establish an Islamic theocracy. They just want the corrupt dictator of 30 years out and a new representative government in. Because they've been disarmed by their government they can't do anything but go to the streets and throw rocks.


----------



## Cyngbaeld (May 20, 2004)

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=133334835


> Protesters Across US Offer Support To Egyptians
> 
> by The Associated Press
> CHICAGO January 29, 2011, 06:34 pm ET
> ...


----------



## Guest (Jan 30, 2011)

Bedouins have taken control of 2 towns in Egypt and are threatening to attack the Suez Canal.



Ernie said:


> In Los Angeles too.


And Toronto.



Ernie said:


> Not a big deal so far. *I* am in support of the Egyptian demonstrators. They aren't trying to establish an Islamic theocracy. They just want the corrupt dictator of 30 years out and a new representative government in. Because they've been disarmed by their government they can't do anything but go to the streets and throw rocks.


I see nothing wrong with them demonstrating for their rights. Problem is, it tends to get out of hand. They may end up having bitten off more than they can chew.


----------



## Rainy (Jan 21, 2010)

I have a feeling that things are going to go into a quicker downward spiral. 
Keep waiting for our gas price to jump but so far so good..
Just don't like what i keep feeling, and watching..


----------



## Txsteader (Aug 22, 2005)

Problem is, they've created a leadership vacuum by insisting that Mubarak leave NOW. I can't figure out if they're trying to intentionally create anarchy or they simply didn't think this thing through.

I'm SO glad the military moved in quickly to protect the national museum. The thought of losing all those historical treasures was sickening.


----------



## Ernie (Jul 22, 2007)

ladycat said:


> Bedouins have taken control of 2 towns in Egypt and are threatening to attack the Suez Canal.
> 
> And Toronto.
> 
> I see nothing wrong with them demonstrating for their rights. Problem is, it tends to get out of hand. They may end up having bitten off more than they can chew.


The biggest problem is that they're unarmed. So even if they manage to force the current government out, they will be prey to whichever group of armed thugs comes in to set up a new government. 

That's always a problem with an unarmed population. You never know who is going to swoop in and tyrannize you next.


----------



## Ernie (Jul 22, 2007)

I've been struggling to figure out why exactly Egypt's problems might cause such a huge spike in the price of oil. They aren't exactly a major producer at less than 1% of what Saudi can produce. 

From some other sources, I think I may see the answers.

1. Roughly 10% of oil tankers go through the Suez Canal. It's too shallow for the top two classes of oil tankers to fit, but 10% isn't a small number. If they can't manage the Suez, then those oil tankers will have to add 6000 miles or so going around the horn of Africa. Many think it will be cheaper to just send those tankers on to Asia to do business rather than bring them to the United States. Particularly if our dollar continues to weaken.

2. Roughly 60% of oil goes through the Sumed pipeline which runs from Suez to the Mediterranean and has a capacity of about 2.5 million barrels per day. They use this pipeline to transport oil from the gulf to fill tankers in the Mediterranean bound for Western ports. It's only jointly owned by Egypt (about 50%), but the majority of the pipeline's length passes through Egypt. If they can't control that territory then they'll be exposing that pipeline to terrorist attack. 

Over the course of next week I think our fate is going to be determined. America is built on the premise of cheap fuel. I can't think of hardly any large industry that won't grind to a complete halt in the face of $5 gasoline.


----------



## tab (Aug 20, 2002)

Thanks for that info, I had either not known or forgotten about the pieline. The Suez Canal serves more than just oil tankers, IIRC. Will have to check out what other goods move thru there. 
Just the rumor or possibility of government change can, or seem to, make the oil market jumpy. 
I wonder, if gas hits 5 bucks a gallon, how long before angry mobs hit the streets here.


----------



## tab (Aug 20, 2002)

I cannot post links using my droid, but there is a news story on www.isrealnationalnews.com about a fleet os US war ships that used the canal in June during which the canal was closed. It was connected to Iran......
Also found an artcle which said supertankers can off load a partial load, go thru the canal and reload. There are also plans to enlarge the canal to allow heavier, literally, traffic as well as more area for two way traffic as the canal is quite narrow along its hundred mile course.
So, trade and military traffic use the canal. Wish I could post the links because it really is an impotant route on many levels.


----------



## Txsteader (Aug 22, 2005)

Breaking news: Egypt has shut down Al Jazeera's Cairo office and cancelled network's license. Many in US have noted that AJ has virtually been the only news source as our sources have been sorely lacking in coverage.

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/01/201113085252994161.html



> The Egyptian authorities are revoking the Al Jazeera Network's licence to broadcast from the country, and will be shutting down its bureau office in Cairo, state television has said.
> 
> "The information minister [Anas al-Fikki] ordered ... suspension of operations of Al Jazeera, cancelling of its licences and withdrawing accreditation to all its staff as of today," a statement on the official Mena
> news agency said on Sunday.
> ...


----------



## JIL (Aug 25, 2007)

looks like the muslims have been freeing jailed muslims and 1000's of others that are in jail. doesn't look good over there


----------



## Ernie (Jul 22, 2007)

I predict that by the end of the week Mubarek will be receiving military aid from somewhere else to quell the resistance, possibly even the United States. It could be soldiers from Jordan or it could be military advisor units from the United States.


----------



## randy11acres (Aug 29, 2009)

I really, really hope that we are smart enough to NOT do that Ernie. We talk about peoples right to self determination so we need to let the Egyptians do that.


----------



## Ernie (Jul 22, 2007)

Not too long ago I was reading a book which discussed the 1848 wave of revolutions that swept across Europe. 

It was called "1848: Year of Revolution" by Mike Rapport. I wasn't a huge fan of the writing style (I hate it when historians devote so much of their books towards attacking the ideas of other historians), but the information is presented was outstanding.

Then, as in now, food shortages prompted popular uprisings. Almost every country in Europe, from the Baltic to the Atlantic, had some sort of massive revolutionary uprising. Some of the governments withstood it and others were toppled. Out of that fire was born many of the big leftist minds like Marx and Lenin. 

Tunisia lit the fire in Egypt, but if Egyptians succeed in toppling their government, I expect this fire to spread across much of the world.


----------



## Ernie (Jul 22, 2007)

Al Jazeera is reporting that the Muslim Brotherhood and some other Islamicist groups have "elected" ElBaradei as president _pro tempore_. 

This is very, very bad. What may have started as a more secular revolution has now turned into an Islamofascist coup d'etat.

We saw this same thing in Iran in 1978-79. Initially it was students advocating for democracy against the corrupt dictator America had supported. Now the Mullahs and Ahmadinejad control Iran.

Hamas has poured armed men into Egypt over the past few days. The average Egyptian isn't armed and has no means to defend himself and his family. If they are promised a moderate Islamic theocracy that will restore order to their country and bring them jobs and food then they may well just back it. "Any port in a storm" seems to be the theme.


----------



## Guest (Jan 30, 2011)

Ernie said:


> I predict that by the end of the week Mubarek will be receiving military aid from somewhere else to quell the resistance, possibly even the United States. It could be soldiers from Jordan or it could be military advisor units from the United States.


That's what I'm afraid of.

The UN will step in and say something's got to be done. Of course that means the U.S. will have to go in, with a token troop or two from a few other countries.


----------



## CountryCabin (Mar 8, 2007)

It sounds like they are still reporting..so far. Page loading slow for me on dial up, lots of U Tube apps. loading.  
Thought I would put out address for the blog, for others that might find it interesting.

From that blog:

To protect Al Jazeera's staff on the ground, we're not naming them or identifying their specific locations. Listen to our producer talk about having to relocate the Al Jazeera office here:

http://blogs.aljazeera.net/middle-east/2011/01/29/live-blog-301-egypt-protests#


----------



## Patt (May 18, 2003)

Ernie said:


> Al Jazeera is reporting that the Muslim Brotherhood and some other Islamicist groups have "elected" ElBaradei as president _pro tempore_.
> 
> This is very, very bad. What may have started as a more secular revolution has now turned into an Islamofascist coup d'etat.
> 
> ...


Unfortunately that is exactly where I expected it would go. We were discussing this earlier this morning and I find it interesting that Westerners tend to assume if you give any country democracy they will vote in freedom. You would think that Palestine after Arafat would have destroyed that notion by now! I feel for the Coptic Christians over there if a religious government gets voted in there instead of the secular one they have now.


----------



## texican (Oct 4, 2003)

I highly doubt any of "our" oil is going through the Canal... however, it doesn't really matter, as oil is fungible, and any supply issues affect prices everywhere from my back yard and to every well on the planet that's producing the life giving juice.


----------



## texican (Oct 4, 2003)

Patt said:


> Unfortunately that is exactly where I expected it would go. We were discussing this earlier this morning and I find it interesting that Westerners tend to assume if you give any country democracy they will vote in freedom. You would think that Palestine after Arafat would have destroyed that notion by now! I feel for the Coptic Christians over there if a religious government gets voted in there instead of the secular one they have now.


Our western freedoms are anathema to countries where Islam rules.

I sincerely wish the best for Egyptians. The situation could go many different ways...

...some folks just can't handle freedom... there are slaves all over the world... we have quite a few folks in this country that can't handle it, and they were very successful in 2008 getting the Slaves Candidate elected. There are freedom loving folks in this country... apparently not as many as the freedom phobic ones.


----------



## Ernie (Jul 22, 2007)

Well, so far this morning the coverage of the Egyptian situation has gone downhill. The Egyptian government has been arresting any and all foreign journalists they find in the country, including Al Jazeera, so the foreign news has almost turned into American-style news. Nothing but talking heads giving their opinion on what might be happening as opposed to actual reporters on the ground. The local rioters aren't any more friendly to the media than the government is, since the media has taken an interest in showing the looting as well as just the cheering crowds.

Reports indicate that the Egyptians are running out of food. The markets are deserted and most of the people are having to go to bread lines to get food. The same government they are protesting is feeding them. Stand in the bread line during the day, riot all night.

At the beginning of any civil disturbance an invisible clock starts counting down. Food distribution stops. Infrastructure services stop. The entire economy grinds to a halt. Whatever level of self-sufficiency the people have is how long they can sustain a revolution. If they have 3 days of food in their pantry then they can fight for 3 days. Period. The wives and mothers aren't happy about the menfolk going out to fight when the cupboards go bare.

This is why most every modern government has endeavored to reduce the self-sufficiency of the populace, including our own. The more a man can do for himself the more free he remains, and a free man is a threat to the powers that be. 

You want to fight a revolution? Make sure you have a year's worth of food on hand.


----------



## Explorer (Dec 2, 2003)

I agree with the food view. I wonder how much the raising food prices have influenced the anti gov't riots in these countries. As far as I know there are only a few countries that are net exporters of grain (the food staple world wide). They are the US, Canada, Australia and Argentina. Yet we don't have a grain cartel like the oil cartel.


----------



## Ernie (Jul 22, 2007)

The situation in Egypt looks very similar to a horse race.

The Muslim Brotherhood has moved in and is providing security and food in many of the predominately Muslim neighborhoods (which just happen to be located in tactical chokepoints within the various cities). They are moving slowly to avoid alarming the western world who is rightly concerned over the potential of a new Muslim theocracy being established in the Middle East. However they are moving and they are taking steps to back their claims to power when this comes down to a grabfest.

In control right now seems to be Egypt's military. It's no coincidence that the man Mubarek just appointed as his new Prime Minister controls all of the military. The military has shown that it isn't interested in stopping the protests right now. They seem to be using them to oust Mubarek before their new guy (Ahmed Shafiq) takes control. I expect them to give Mubarek a little bit longer to make a graceful exit before the military tries to tighten control over the country.

The head of the military, General Sami Annan was IN Washington DC as the riots started in talks with the Obama administration. One wonders what the topics discussed were. Perhaps lining up his support for when Mubarek falls? 

Either we're going to see an American-backed military coup, or an Islamic theocracy. There's no good outcome in this.


----------



## Ernie (Jul 22, 2007)

Uh oh.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap...qct7Tg?docId=299bd50d25dc4b8e8172542ca00a00db

*WASHINGTON (AP) &#8212; Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton is convening an unprecedented mass meeting of U.S. ambassadors.

The top envoys from nearly all of America's 260 embassies, consulates and other posts in more than 180 countries will be gathering at the State Department beginning on Monday. Officials say it's the first such global conference.*

This is something to watch. They're calling in all the ambassadors this week. Why? What are they expecting? It could literally be anything going on ... from something they know that they aren't telling us, to Wikileaks discussions, to an alien invasion. (Ok, maybe not aliens, but who knows?)

I view this about like a swimmer in deep water would view a glimpse of a gray fin circling nearby.


----------



## Txsteader (Aug 22, 2005)

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0111/48471.html
Emphasis mine.


> The ambassadors hold meetings with their regional bureaus Monday and Tuesday. Clinton is set to address the ambassadors Wednesday about &#8220;*leading through civilian power*,&#8221; after a welcome from her chief of staff and counselor, Cheryl Mills.


What the heck does _that_ mean, 'civilian power'?



> But per that point, one official questioned why &#8220;every ambassador in the world was required to come back to the States for a group of lectures when this could have been done virtually,&#8221; noting that almost every ambassador flies business class, so costs could quickly add up.


:TFH: Something's up.


----------



## tab (Aug 20, 2002)

Thanks for that info.


----------



## Ernie (Jul 22, 2007)

So far this Egyptian situation has been the ultimate prep scenario.

1. Government shut down of internet and cellular network? Check!
2. Wealthy and political elite bugging out? Check!
3. Large numbers of escaped criminals? Check!
4. Looting and mob violence? Check!
5. Diminishing food stores? Check!
6. Police and military refusing (or unable) to restore order? Check!

The only thing it's missing is zombies or space aliens. 

This is not some third-world cesspit. It's a modern, industrialized nation.


----------



## Peggy (Feb 14, 2010)

Glen Beck is going to be talking about Egypt all this week on fox news at 5.


----------



## Guest (Feb 1, 2011)

Ernie said:


> The only thing it's missing is zombies


Wait a few days....


----------



## Cindy in NY (May 10, 2002)

Ernie - add #7:

religious extremists pouring into the country


----------



## randy11acres (Aug 29, 2009)

Yeah Cindy, that is what will cause them problems.


----------



## AngieM2 (May 10, 2002)

I was just looking at a different news story and see where Jordan's King has dissolved the government and put in new Prime Minister, due to issues in Jordan. 



> Jordan's King Abdullah Fires Government Amid Protests


If you goggle that headline, there are several links to check it out. Seems he's trying to head of an Egyptian type event.


----------



## Txsteader (Aug 22, 2005)

You beat me to it, Angie. I just posted the story in the Politics forum.

And I don't think this is coincidental, but coordinated across the region. A member of the Muslim Brotherhood stated a couple days ago that they intended to bring down every government in the region that were US allies. It would appear that that's exactly what is happening.


----------



## Guest (Feb 1, 2011)

Ernie said:


> So far this Egyptian situation has been the ultimate prep scenario.
> 
> 1. Government shut down of internet and cellular network? Check!
> 2. Wealthy and political elite bugging out? Check!
> ...


 I would not call Egypt a modern industrialized nation. In fact other than _perhaps_ Israel there is no modern, industrialized nation in the Middle East. More than half of the Egyptian population lives in genuine poverty, they import half or more of their food in a time when food prices are skyrocketing, and they've got a dysfunctional and deeply corrupt government. Pretty much like the rest of the Middle East (to include Israel in some ways).

What's different now is ease and speed of communications. Egypt waited much too late to turn off the Internet and the other means of electronic communications. The genie was already out of the bottle. There are A LOT of thoroughly discontented people across the Middle East. Discontented from years, decades, centuries of rotten, autocratic governments. Modern communications makes it very easy for even poor people to get news of what's going on around the world and when they see neighbors in one country run off their corrupt governments it is only natural for the desire to do so themselves to arise. For all of the poverty in Egypt there are a lot of well educated, _unemployed_ people there who are deeply unhappy with their government and believe things could and should be better and they are acting to make it so.

Will they succeed? I have no idea. The whole thing may yet fail. Or they may succeed in overthrowing their government only to get something even worse in its place, or they may be forced into an extended period anarchy and chaos. Just because you start a revolution does not mean you will be able to control it. Even Libya has declared a state of emergency now.

No matter what happens now though the U.S. has got another mess on our hands. Success breeds success so if Egypt goes down you can be sure there will be no end of folks in the other Middle Eastern nations to make a sincere play to do the same for themselves. 

And no lack of groups and organizations who will try to take advantage of it all for their own ends. For good or bad.


----------



## Spatula (Feb 10, 2010)

And now on top of everything there, I read on cnn (I think) that there were small demonstrations in Russia, with speakers comparing the conditions there to the middle east...


----------



## Txsteader (Aug 22, 2005)

Wall Street doesn't seem to be concerned by any of the news......dow up over 120 points to 12,014.


----------



## Guest (Feb 1, 2011)

Investors looking for a safe place to keep their money. This is a common occurrence in the American markets when things start looking dicey overseas.


----------



## hoggie (Feb 11, 2007)

So for those playing the market, would this be coming up to a good time to cash in their stocks then? When others are buying in ?


----------



## Ernie (Jul 22, 2007)

A.T. Hagan said:


> Investors looking for a safe place to keep their money. This is a common occurrence in the American markets when things start looking dicey overseas.


And vice versa.

Egypt tried selling off all its treasury bonds yesterday but couldn't find a buyer. Imagine that.


----------



## Guest (Feb 1, 2011)

Still too soon to say that this is actually going to happen, but at the moment it appears that Mubarak will not run again so will step down in September.

http://www.forexlive.com/163752/all/mubarak-to-speak-today

If this is really true and they can get the rest of his corrupt regime out the door as well then you can schedule the dominoes up the escalator because it's only going to encourage the other nations.

I think I'm going to add another drum of fuel to the storage...

A little background on a fair part of what is driving the Egyptian unrest.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MB02Ak01.html


----------



## texican (Oct 4, 2003)

A.T. Hagan said:


> Still too soon to say that this is actually going to happen, but at the moment it appears that Mubarak will not run again so will step down in September.
> 
> http://www.forexlive.com/163752/all/mubarak-to-speak-today
> 
> ...


Stopped by my cousins yesterday... said he could fill as many barrels as I could get. If it wasn't getting icy outside, I'd be carrying em over. He works for a construction company and gets bulk diesel.


----------



## tab (Aug 20, 2002)

Allen, being the storage guru that you are  , please start another thread on storing petrol. I have been researching it and there is a bit to it. I am thinking storing fuel is on a lot of minds right now.


----------



## Ernie (Jul 22, 2007)

Woke up this morning to discover the situation had turned ugly real quick.

A lot of pro-government demonstrators are now pushing their way into the central square. Some speculate they are being led by the secret police. Lots have been injured so far and the Egyptian military has retreated into the Cairo museum. 

The barricades that the military put up around the square are preventing the demonstrators trapped there from escaping.


----------



## Guest (Feb 2, 2011)

And it gets worse.

http://drudgereport.com/
*REPORT: US, EU discussing need for international military intervention to remove Mubarak... Developing...* 

Revolutions have a way of going south in a hurry. Let's hope that we aren't really going to send in troops...


----------



## Pouncer (Oct 28, 2006)

A customer stopped by my office yesterday, he had ordered 4000 gallons of fuel and was looking for storage. 

I wish I had the bucks to do the same


----------



## Ernie (Jul 22, 2007)

A.T. Hagan said:


> And it gets worse.
> 
> http://drudgereport.com/
> *REPORT: US, EU discussing need for international military intervention to remove Mubarak... Developing...*
> ...


One of the complaints many Egyptians have against Mubarek is that he is a puppet installed by the United States. How is going in and setting up a new government there going to help?

Obama has been in discussions with the Muslim Brotherhood. There's a lot of speculation that he wants to set up a Muslim government in Egypt.


----------



## Pouncer (Oct 28, 2006)

It all boils down to extremists who will govern by Shari'a Law.

Read it, and be very very afraid. Scares the heck out of me, to be truthful. In this country with our overly PC stance (welcome every person, all peoples should be accommodated, etc) this is a very real threat. It is already an accepted form of self government here on US soils.....Obama's stance on this will prove to have been disastrous. JMO.


----------



## Guest (Feb 2, 2011)

Well, I'm following several news agencies on Twitter, and I've been watching the Egypt headlines for days on my Twitter feed plugin in Firefox. 

It's been obvious that the situation has continued to deteriorate. Border guards abandoned their posts days ago, the few military personnel that are still left after the ones who joined the protestors, are completely ineffective. I saw a headline/synopsis this morning about the troops who are holed up in the museum trying to ward off the molotov cocktails being tossed in their direction.

A little while after I read that, came this: 
*US military chief voices confidence in Egypt's army.*

Oh, really??? :hysterical:

Then a few minutes later, I saw this:
*White House chief of staff: U.S. had no warning of today's pro-Mubarak protest after Obama, Mubarak spoke Tuesday.*

Did they think the riotors have a game plan and they're going to share it? :hammer:


----------



## Scott in Florida Panhandl (May 10, 2002)

Ernie said:


> Obama has been in discussions with the Muslim Brotherhood. There's a lot of speculation that he wants to set up a Muslim government in Egypt.


I'd say this is more factual than speculation.


----------



## Guest (Feb 9, 2011)

So whither now for Egypt?

That last demonstration by the protesters was the biggest one yet. 

But the government does not seem to be moved. Reportedly their new V.P. said "dialogue or coup."

Will they? Won't they? Something else entirely?

If the Egyptian government does not soon fall I think the reverberations across the region will slowly (perhaps very slowly) die out.

But if they do force the government out in the next month or so it is going to surely juice movements in other nations to do the same. Not that I'll cry to see the governments of places like Libya, Saudi Arabia, and the like change but it's going to be messy. Very messy. 

For them. For us. For everyone.


----------



## Karen (Apr 17, 2002)

I don't think it will die out and I do think it's going to go more violent. These people on the streets have nothing to lose. At $2 a day for wages, they are already hungry and watching their children suffer. It seems to just be making them more angry that Mubarak _still_ doesn't get it and that his greed is _still_ more important than his country and its people. It's all about one man's wants verses an entire country that is suffering.


----------



## bee (May 12, 2002)

I wish I had a magic glass to see behind the scenes..is there any thought that Mubaric is hanging on to keep the Brotherhood out??? That he is not hanging on for himself but for a more ordered transition? Pop him out and you have created a hole that will rush to be filled. I keep thinking of Iran when the Shah was "removed" and what we have now to deal with...
Sure all the things Mubaric did and did not do are now coming home to roost. In the bottom line outcome I hope the PEOPLE get what they want and not a quick "fix" that turns out to be worse than what they got rid of.


----------



## Cyngbaeld (May 20, 2004)

Simply ousting Mubarak will NOT give the people freedom, food or jobs. It 
will destabilize the country even more and destroy any chance of improvement in their economy. They need fundamental changes and I can't see it happening, no matter who is sitting in the cat bird's seat.


----------



## Guest (Feb 9, 2011)

The developing situation in Pakistan is ratcheting things up still further.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/07/AR2011020705790.html

"Tenser, said the Tensor, Tenser said the Tensor. Tension, apprehension, and dissension have begun."


----------



## texican (Oct 4, 2003)

As long as the demonstrations are peaceful, I can't see Mubarak abdicating anytime soon. The main power broker, the military, so far is staying neutral. Sure they're just hedging their bets...


----------



## Guest (Feb 10, 2011)

Yes, I think the military is just waiting to see how serious this is going to get. So far, not serious enough. 

The sitzkrieg continues.


----------



## Cindy in NY (May 10, 2002)

It's about 3:30 PM. Waiting to hear what Mubarak has to say. Supposedly, he's going to leave now.


----------



## Guest (Feb 10, 2011)

Supposedly.

But if his _regime_ stays in place then simply his stepping down is not likely to pacify the protesters.

We'll see.


----------



## Wisconsin Ann (Feb 27, 2007)

hooboy. Listening to Mubarak speaking now and it's sure not sounding like he's stepping down immediately. Took a swipe at Obama/US in the beginning, too. something like: "not going to listen to things mandated from outside Egypt, no matter who they are"

Investigations into the deaths. Putting in place people to make sure the elections in september are transparent. "study" constitutional amendments the people asked for. 

He's sure sounding like someone who's maintaining his presidency.


----------



## bee (May 12, 2002)

He came right out and said not going until September....whooo boy!!


----------



## Wisconsin Ann (Feb 27, 2007)

Well. Looks like it's either going to simmer down and wait to see if they keep the promises...or it's going to blow wide open. 

At least we won't be seeing hour long Linsay Lohan specials, complete with psychiatrists, on the news for a couple days. 

BBC news is interesting now. The arabic ones are all over the place. printing/reporting every rumor as fact. ouch. lots of support for the protesters, tho.


----------



## Cindy in NY (May 10, 2002)

I think going to blow wide open is the more likely result.


----------



## Ernie (Jul 22, 2007)

Tomorrow looks like it might be the day. The protestors are leaving the square and marching on the presidential palace.


----------



## tab (Aug 20, 2002)

Heard a report a day or so ago that Friday was supposed to be a big day and had been coordinated using Twitter. IF that was accurate, after this latest developement, methinks it is going to be a day to check the news a lot.


----------



## Guest (Feb 11, 2011)

"Tension, apprehension and dissension have begun!"

Escalator going UP.


----------



## Wisconsin Ann (Feb 27, 2007)

The military is supporting Mubark's position...keep it stable until September when there is a free and open election.

I didn't know that their constitution says in order to be on the ballot, you have to submit your name and get 2/3 of the votes cast in the ...er...their version of congress. SO....in the past only 1 person made the cut. 

That was the first thing that Mubarak said in his speech was going to be changed. Article 76 I think? Supposedly it will be more like other countries with elections...if you have enough names on a petition, you can put your name on the ballot. 

The military is really important to the people, it seems. A sort of ROCK and they trust them. :shrug: 

I see he's going to speak to the people again soon. Reports all over the place with where Mubarak is..left Cairo for the resort town he owns a villa in...is still in Cairo...

 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12307698 is doing a live stream and twitter update on the page. (it's their main BBC station, so they cut out from time to time when the station goes back to "normal" news.

http://english.aljazeera.net/ Aljazeera is an interesting view of the whole world, btw. Shows a lot of how the muslim/arabic view things around the world. ... Reason I post aljazeera is that it's always good to know what other cultures are thinking...study your "enemy" as it were..to learn more about yourself.


----------



## Guest (Feb 11, 2011)

Until some independent confirmation comes out I'm classifying this one as rumor, but if it's true then things may have just gotten more interesting:

*Saudia Arabia's King Abdullah passed away*
http://www.islamtimes.org/vdcc1sqp.2bq048y-a2.html


----------



## Ernie (Jul 22, 2007)

A.T. Hagan said:


> Until some independent confirmation comes out I'm classifying this one as rumor, but if it's true then things may have just gotten more interesting:
> 
> *Saudia Arabia's King Abdullah passed away*
> http://www.islamtimes.org/vdcc1sqp.2bq048y-a2.html


Al Jazeera is repeating it, but I don't know if they're repeating it as something reported by Islamtimes or if they have independently verified it.

At some point, King Abdullah is going to have to come out to the balcony to wave to the cameras. Either that, or his ministers are going to have to prop up his corpse like "Weekend at Bernie's".


----------



## Wisconsin Ann (Feb 27, 2007)

I sure hope and pray that one is false reporting. For many reasons.


----------



## Wisconsin Ann (Feb 27, 2007)

Interestingly, one of the opposition leaders in Iran had called for protests in Tehran to support Egypt and Tunisia protests...and now HE has been jailed. That could easily be the next hotspot...they've been simmering for a couple of years now.


----------



## AngieM2 (May 10, 2002)

Please keep posting the news. This is stuff we need to know - with a large dose of antacidis. (or stiff drink)


----------



## secretcreek (Jan 24, 2010)

AP World News feed...under MiddleEast...is not showing any story like this this morning??

Ever use the links to the low-lower left side of the page on Drudgereport's site?
-scrt crk


----------



## secretcreek (Jan 24, 2010)

2/11/2011 6pm Mubarek has stepped down (11am EST ) SO? Who's in control now? The VP or the military? 

AP Is now announcing it...
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/storie...ME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2011-02-11-11-09-34

-scrt crk


----------



## Wisconsin Ann (Feb 27, 2007)

Okay. They just reported that Suileman (the VP there) told the public that Mubark has resigned.

and the whole square has erupted in cheers and horns honking and flag waving. 

There are many reports around the area that it's true..and apparently the crowd thinks it is.


----------



## Ernie (Jul 22, 2007)

I don't know how he had much choice. The protestors were marching towards his place to make sure he was going to go. The military was given three choices:

1. Fire on the protestors
2. Allow the protestors to seize Mubarek
3. Arrest Mubarek themselves


----------



## Wisconsin Ann (Feb 27, 2007)

ahhh. It was reported first on Egypt State TV that Mubarak resigned. Everyone else is picking it up

ernie...they weren't marching to take him. They were still very peaceful. They were still trying to just force his hand...which worked. You can watch some of the video of them marching on BBC. 

This whole thing is fascinating! 

But...Suileman is in charge, with Military backing him up. Military has said they will STOP the military rule (emergency) that has gone on for 30 years. (gack..30 years...) And they promised that. Hopefully they'll be able to now go forward.


----------



## Guest (Feb 11, 2011)

Ernie said:


> At some point, King Abdullah is going to have to come out to the balcony to wave to the cameras. Either that, or his ministers are going to have to prop up his corpse like "Weekend at Bernie's".


 Yep.

Still can't find anything that confirms this. But at the same time nothing that factually refutes it either.

The man or his body. One or the other.


----------



## Guest (Feb 11, 2011)

secretcreek said:


> 2/11/2011 6pm Mubarek has stepped down (11am EST).


If Sueliman and the rest of the regime are still in place then nothing much has really changed.

But the mere fact that Mubarak has stepped down is going to juice every other movement across the Middle East in a big way.


----------



## bee (May 12, 2002)

now what???

I mean will we see spreading calm in the region(middle east) or will the other countries protesters pick up steam with Egypt's success??


----------



## Wisconsin Ann (Feb 27, 2007)

Full statement from Vice-President Suleiman: "In the name of God the merciful, the compassionate, citizens, during these very difficult circumstances Egypt is going through, President Hosni Mubarak has decided to step down from the office of president of the republic and has charged the high council of the armed forces to administer the affairs of the country. May God help everybody."


----------



## Guest (Feb 11, 2011)

*The 11 Countries At Risk of Becoming The Next Egypt*
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-next-egypt-2011-1#morocco-reforms-already-lined-up-1


----------



## cnichols (Jan 5, 2010)

> CAIRO &#8211; Egypt's vice president says Hosni Mubarak has resigned as president and handed control to the military.
> 
> Car horns were heard around Cairo in celebration after Vice President Omar Suleiman made the announcement on national TV on Friday.
> 
> "In these difficult circumstances that the country is passing through, President Hosni Mubarak has decided to leave the position of the presidency," Suleiman said. He has commissioned the armed forces council to direct the issues of the state."


http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110211/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_egypt

Looks like I'm a little late posting this one ...


----------



## Ernie (Jul 22, 2007)

Now we wait to see which country was the next domino to fall.


----------



## cnichols (Jan 5, 2010)

Eeek... not sure about this one but it makes me very nervous ... 

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110211/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_iran_egypt

Here's a quote ...



> "Despite all the (West's) complicated and satanic designs ... a new Middle East is emerging without the Zionist regime and U.S. interference, a place where the arrogant powers will have no place," Ahmadinejad told a crowd filling Tehran's Azadi, or Freedom, Square.


----------



## Wisconsin Ann (Feb 27, 2007)

A.T. Hagan said:


> If Sueliman and the rest of the regime are still in place then nothing much has really changed.
> 
> But the mere fact that Mubarak has stepped down is going to juice every other movement across the Middle East in a big way.


Since the armed forces there are so highly esteemed there, they seem to be able to keep the peace and control. They've released a statement that they will lift the state of emergency as soon as things calm down, and they will NOT pursue the protesters. They will protect the people as they move to a free election....but warn that they WILL protect against anyone who threatens the safety of Egypt. (a warning that they will fire on anyone who starts a riot or continues to try to force into palaces, etc) 

Oh..and that they will prosecute those who beating and killing people earlier.

The amazing thing to me about this, are the people..the people who are marching in protest have formed rings around the Museum to protect it..they protected many of hte shops there when looters started to show up. And this whole thing has, so far, been as peaceful as you could wish for. (yah, I know...some deaths and beatings earlier. )


----------



## Ernie (Jul 22, 2007)

Today is the anniversary of the February 11, 1979 overthrow of the Shah of Iran.


----------



## Guest (Feb 11, 2011)

Wisconsin Ann said:


> The amazing thing to me about this, are the people..the people who are marching in protest have formed rings around the Museum to protect it..they protected many of hte shops there when looters started to show up. And this whole thing has, so far, been as peaceful as you could wish for. (yah, I know...some deaths and beatings earlier. )


 But they are going to have to see some meaningful and substantive changes and see them *soon*.

Muammar al-Gaddafi is probably passing a brick right now. It'll do him good.


----------



## Wisconsin Ann (Feb 27, 2007)

A.T. Hagan said:


> But they are going to have to see some meaningful and substantive changes and see them *soon*.
> 
> Muammar al-Gaddafi is probably passing a brick right now. It'll do him good.


First sentence..yup. I figure the military and ruling guys have some time, but they'd better show SOMETHING quickly. 

2nd sentence: :rotfl: ound: oh man. spit my tea at the screen reading that.


----------



## Ernie (Jul 22, 2007)

According to AlJazeera, he has NOT handed over power to the VP or his cabinet, but rather to the MILITARY.

I believe a small prize is in order as I predicted this.


----------



## Guest (Feb 11, 2011)

Ernie said:


> According to AlJazeera, he has NOT handed over power to the VP or his cabinet, but rather to the MILITARY.


 So, tell me what the current V.P. and the Prime Minister did for a living before Mubarak put them into those positions? In fact, what did Mubarak himself do for a living before becoming second to Anwar Sadat?

The military taking control may not mean a darn thing so far as anything meaningful goes.

or it may mean everything.

They've got a brief time to make this clear one way or the other.

But only a brief time.


> I believe a small prize is in order as I predicted this.


 This being the S&EP forum and all here's your prize:

:spam:

:happy0035::icecream:


----------



## Wisconsin Ann (Feb 27, 2007)

A military source tells the Reuters news agency that Field Marshal Mohammed Hussein Tantawi, the defence minister and commander-in-chief of the armed forces, is the head of the Higher Military Council that has taken control in Egypt.

Suleiman is the head of the supreme council, I think....At the moment, it appears that Mubarak and the mubarak clones/regime is NOT going to have any control. Although the head of the military is part of the establishment. BUT...the people seem to be okay with it so far. They seem to realize that they need someone who knows what's going on to continue to run the country. 

And of course...it could all go pear-shaped rather quickly.


----------



## Wisconsin Ann (Feb 27, 2007)

> what did Mubarak himself do for a living before becoming second to Anwar Sadat?


Mubarak was an instructor at the Air Academy and commanded Egypt's bomber force in the Yemen civil war in the 1960s. He was named director of the Air Academy in 1967 and given the important task of rebuilding the air force, which the Israelis had destroyed in the Six Day War of June 1967. Mubarak moved up to air force chief of staff in 1969 and commander in chief in 1972. He helped plan a successful surprise attack on Israeli forces occupying the east 
​


----------



## Ernie (Jul 22, 2007)

A.T. Hagan said:


> So, tell me what the current V.P. and the Prime Minister did for a living before Mubarak put them into those positions? In fact, what did Mubarak himself do for a living before becoming second to Anwar Sadat?
> 
> The military taking control may not mean a darn thing so far as anything meaningful goes.


They were all military. 

However, we have somewhat of a confusing situation in their military today. You have all the old officers who were trained by the Soviets. All the newer officers were trained by Americans. It must make for some interesting discussions around the ol' barracks. 

We'll just have to wait and see what comes out of it, but I'd bet that can of spam that it will be worse for the Egyptian people than what they did previously. Verdict to be decided 1 year from today.


----------



## Wisconsin Ann (Feb 27, 2007)

You said the armed forces needs to do something substantial quickly, well..how's this?

Al-Arabiya reports that the Higher Military Council will sack the cabinet, suspend both houses of parliament and rule with the head of the Supreme Constitutional Court, the country's highest judicial body. A statement is expected later on Friday.


----------



## AngieM2 (May 10, 2002)

Ann - for some reason, that sure doesn't sound too good to me.


----------



## Guest (Feb 11, 2011)

Wisconsin Ann said:


> You said the armed forces needs to do something substantial quickly, well..how's this?
> 
> Al-Arabiya reports that the Higher Military Council will sack the cabinet, suspend both houses of parliament and rule with the head of the Supreme Constitutional Court, the country's highest judicial body. A statement is expected later on Friday.


LOOKS good. 

But only time and their actions during their rule will demonstrate if the protesters got what they wanted, things stay more or less the same, or if things are going to get worse.

But for the moment things appear hopeful. Let's hope it continues.

Now then. What other nations are about to hit the fan? Yemen? Libya? Could the party be about to start in Saudi Arabia? Iran?


----------



## Ernie (Jul 22, 2007)

So it's a military coup d'etat now. 

Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.

Well, I guess that might still be better than the Muslim Brotherhood taking over.


----------



## Wisconsin Ann (Feb 27, 2007)

oh, I dunno. The people of Egypt trust the military. They don't trust the parliament. They do trust the Court(mostly). Parliament seems to be seen as just supporting whatever Mubarak wanted...remember..they're the ones who vote to let someone on the ballot for president..and it's always just been Mubarak. 

Tell ya what...I'd rather have their military in charge than the radicals..or worse..no one. The military there is different than ours. It's like we have 3 branches of government..and theirs has president with parliament, the court, and the military.


----------



## Wisconsin Ann (Feb 27, 2007)

by the way...2 points. First, the military is made up of 2 "parts". The upper guys who eat well, get paid well, etc. And "the grunts"..who are pretty much like the people in the streets. The "grunts" outnumber the upper echelon by 3 to 1 by some estimates. 

2nd: there are quite a number of Egyptians who are saying that <what's his name-the google executive in Egypt> who pretty much started all this by tweeting about protesting and urging people to get together and push things...that he's a good bet to be put forward as a candidate for president. Also, of course, ElBaradei will likely be put forth by the muslim brotherhood. (although the man hasn't lived in Egypt in years.)

ooOOOOO.... Supreme Military Council is in charge, but it seems that the parliament folks are resisting a bit (go figure). Minister of Finance is on BBC now, and saying that he's still in government...that his understanding is that all the demands of the demonstrators have been met. That he feels that "the whole of the oligarchy has been removed".


----------



## Ernie (Jul 22, 2007)

I don't trust ANY military enough for that sort of power. The proof will be in the pudding though. We'll see in September if they hold fair elections like they promised.


----------



## Wisconsin Ann (Feb 27, 2007)

oooo. The Swiss have just frozen all of Mubarak's possible accounts there. ooOOOOo.


----------



## AngieM2 (May 10, 2002)

I thought the Swiss stayed neutral


----------



## bourbonred (Feb 27, 2008)

My 13 y.o. DS heard about M.'s stepping down and said "yeah, that's good news, huh?" We had another political conversation in the dining room about democracy vs. republic, and how all this could play out. Typically, my teens are pretty savvy regarding the news. Anyway, it got me to thinking how the average Joe in America will see this. Talk radio said the American press was giddy in reporting it. (didn't see--we're tv free) If the US press is gushing over this, then how must our allies (Israel) be feeling right now? None too safe.


----------



## Ernie (Jul 22, 2007)

AngieM2 said:


> I thought the Swiss stayed neutral


The long-standing status of Swiss banks being a neutral place to park your money went away in the 1990's. Now offshore banks or Dubai is a much better place.


----------



## Scott in Florida Panhandl (May 10, 2002)

IMHO this wild spread like a wild fire. They know they have a little under 2 years while Obama is in power and we are bowing to the world. That Iranian revolution didn't turn out too well decades ago and the latest Iranian uprising Obama was quiet on.


----------



## Guest (Feb 11, 2011)

A.T. Hagan said:


> Until some independent confirmation comes out I'm classifying this one as rumor, but if it's true then things may have just gotten more interesting:
> 
> *Saudia Arabia's King Abdullah passed away*
> http://www.islamtimes.org/vdcc1sqp.2bq048y-a2.html


Make of this what you will.

*There is suspicious traffic in front of king Abdullah's hotel in Morocco*
http://www.islamtimes.org/vdca6enm.49nyi1gtk4.html

The Saudi and Moroccan governments say "no" but we have yet to actually *see* the king.


----------



## Ernie (Jul 22, 2007)

If those protestors don't clear the streets and get back to work in a day or two, the army is going to brutalize them. I'm also taking bets on which will be the next country to erupt into flames.

Serbia looks like it's starting. Jordan's next. Saudi Arabia might, if the king did indeed expire in Morocco.


----------



## Guest (Feb 11, 2011)

A.T. Hagan said:


> Make of this what you will.
> 
> *There is suspicious traffic in front of king Abdullah's hotel in Morocco*
> http://www.islamtimes.org/vdca6enm.49nyi1gtk4.html
> ...


 Maybe because...

*Saudi King suffers a 'major medical setback'*
http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/WTARC/2011/me_gulf0139_02_11.asp


----------



## secretcreek (Jan 24, 2010)

A CIA /Expert on international Security: Jamie Smith was being interviewed on the current Egyptian event on Fox mentioned the possibility of the "unconfirmed rumor" about King Abdullah's possible death (this was around 1:45 pm EST). 
-scrt crk


----------



## Ernie (Jul 22, 2007)

This racoon appears to have also suffered a major medical setback.


----------



## Scott in Florida Panhandl (May 10, 2002)

Well, the Whitehouse is watching the news coverage on tv. So,they'll know when we know.


----------



## Scott in Florida Panhandl (May 10, 2002)

Ernie said:


> This racoon appears to have also suffered a major medical setback.


Guess he couldn't read the warning on the Marlboro packs.


----------



## Guest (Feb 11, 2011)

You all thought you were going to have a peaceful, relaxing weekend, didn't you?


----------



## bee (May 12, 2002)

Well it IS just friday A.T.!!!

I have lots to do this weekend with preps and "promises" so I guess the middle east will have to roll along without me hanging on every RAISE of a shoe.....


----------



## Guest (Feb 11, 2011)

Yeah, I was doing the same thing once a couple of years ago. Spent the entire day outside working. Completely out of touch with everything but the birds and the beasts.

Came in that night from a long day's work to discover there had been a coup in Pakistan and the news story that I learned this from was discussing the security of the Pakistani nuclear weapons and who had actual control of them.

This gave me something to think about for a long time.


----------



## secretcreek (Jan 24, 2010)

I listened to the news all day while cleaning house, and bleaching and filling jugs with water to store. DH is have lithotripsy Monday.


----------



## tab (Aug 20, 2002)

SOMEBODY CALL PETA!!!! Kidding, thanks Ernie, for adding a laugh to a very serious topic.

I have few days any more that I don't check the news often. To much can happen in minutes.

The "news" is full of speclation and as someone said, giddy in tone of the reports. Sad that there seems to be such poor reporting.


----------



## Ernie (Jul 22, 2007)

According to other rumors, Mubarak has now also suffered a "major medical setback".

http://www.jpost.com/Headlines/Article.aspx?id=208131

*Egyptian newspaper al-Masry al-Youm reported that deposed Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak has been in a coma since Saturday, quoting "well-informed sources."

The source told the paper that although Mubarak was receiving medical treatment at his Sharm e-Sheikh, a decision had not been made about whether to transfer him to the hospital.

The report quoted "rumors" that while giving his final defiant speech on Thursday, Mubarak fainted twice.*

So we've possibly lost King Abdullah and now Mubarak has slipped into a coma _right as the military seizes control_. You could never write fiction this good ... it would be considered too unbelievable.


----------



## bourbonred (Feb 27, 2008)

:kung:I can't get anything done for checking the news. Ya'll 've turned me into a news junkie. Curses!! :kung:


----------



## AngieM2 (May 10, 2002)

I heard about that coma story this morning on the network news. I thought it strange that he was good enough on Friday to step down, but now in a coma. Does anyone else smell stinkie fish in these reports. Don't ya just wonder what is REALLY happening and not just the news feeds.

Also, the reporter this morning in Egypt - was outside of Egypt as the new military were telling foreign reporters to get out, and the demonstrators to "go home".


----------



## tab (Aug 20, 2002)

Heard on the news that protests were happening in Iran.


----------



## Guest (Feb 14, 2011)

And being stomped by the Iranian police.

Hopefully they'll have some staying power, but I wouldn't bet on it.


----------



## Ernie (Jul 22, 2007)

We're on the 4th day of protests in Yemen and a couple of days into Bahrain. Iran protestors are back at it but getting their heads busted in. 

Strange days indeed.


----------



## Wisconsin Ann (Feb 27, 2007)

Mubarak is what...80? I can see him going into a total blue funk and refusing to take any of his medications (Somewhere I read that he was on something for the last couple of years?) Or even overdosing. Lost his country. Lost his job. Lost his power. Lost his Swiss Assets. man...what's left? Start over at McDonald's? (which reminds me...a KFC opened in Cairo, I think I heard :rotfl: )

Or...I could see him refusing to leave office, and the military (who has run the country for decades anyway) sort of...um...HELPING him leave...permanently. And then putting out that he'd fallen or had an attack or something, and died. yup.


----------



## Ernie (Jul 22, 2007)

"But, I don't want to go on the cart! I'm feeling fine!"


----------



## radiofish (Mar 30, 2007)

I saw that there have been some incidents in Iran on today's news.. I wonder if Iran will also ban Al Jazeera journalists from covering their demonstrations, and the use of tear gas for crowd control?

Ernie - here is another example of a major medical setback, due to substance abuse...










So if one is a ruler of a country, then one should avoid all bad habits?? 
Even if they are 81 years old? 
Then what fun is it getting old, while at the top of the power pyramid?

What if the common people decide to revolt, and use intoxicated suicide bombers while they declare a 'Jihad' against the ruling regime??










Ever notice that once Martial Law is declared by a Military Junta/ , that it is not recended very quickly?


----------



## Guest (Feb 15, 2011)

Speaking of squirrels....


[YOUTUBE]0so5er4X3dc[/YOUTUBE]


----------



## Guest (Feb 15, 2011)

Wisconsin Ann said:


> Mubarak is what...80? I can see him going into a total blue funk and refusing to take any of his medications (Somewhere I read that he was on something for the last couple of years?)


 He was seriously ill even before the protests started. From what I'm reading from folks who actually live in Egypt it's been known for quite some time that he was sick and this is why he wasn't going to run again in the fall. Not a big surprise given the events of the last couple of weeks that it would suddenly catch up with him.

It was his attempts to have his son Jamal inherit power that really began to turn the ruling military elite against him. An elite I will note that is now in direct, open control of the nation instead of the more shadowy, indirect control they've always had for the last sixty years or so.


----------



## Ernie (Jul 22, 2007)

The military seizing control isn't a particularly good thing. The people wanted some form of representative government. What they got is:

-a military junta
-suspension of their constitution


----------

