# Unbelievable sale prices today



## nchobbyfarm (Apr 10, 2011)

I went to the sale and was amazed.

350-400 lbs steers bringing $2.80 to $3.27.

940-1250 lbs middle aged gorgeous cows bringing $1.45 to $1.55

400+ lbs heifers bringing 2.20-2.50.

Is the market ever going to find the ceiling?


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## Allen W (Aug 2, 2008)

There will be a lot of casualties when it does.


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## MO_cows (Aug 14, 2010)

Yes, when the crop of spring-born calves get weaned and sold, plus all the cows that came up open, prices will dip back down.

If you have anything to sell, get it done sooner rather than later.


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## TripleD (Feb 12, 2011)

I know I'm not comparing apples to apples but I got 5 Holstien heifers 600lbs each @ $1.55lb Monday.


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## Le Petit Norman (Apr 28, 2008)

I guess it's time to become a vegetarian for us non beef producers &#8230;.


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## southerngurl (May 11, 2003)

> Unbelievable sale prices today


Means something totally different on the cattle forum that it would almost anywhere else haha!


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## badlander (Jun 7, 2009)

That's why when we drive by a couple of 'cattle operations' I see $$$$ signs grazing in the pastures.


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## Allen W (Aug 2, 2008)

MO_cows said:


> Yes, when the crop of spring-born calves get weaned and sold, plus all the cows that came up open, prices will dip back down.
> 
> If you have anything to sell, get it done sooner rather than later.


We have the smallest cow herd since the 1950's I see a glut of cattle coming to the market any time soon. Corn prices and consumer demand will drive the prices for now.


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## MO_cows (Aug 14, 2010)

Allen W said:


> We have the smallest cow herd since the 1950's I see a glut of cattle coming to the market any time soon. Corn prices and consumer demand will drive the prices for now.


It won't be a glut but it will ease up the tight supply for the short term and the buyers will take advantage of that like they do everything else. Prices aren't going back to 2010 levels or anything like that, just taking a dip like they do every fall.


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## Jim S. (Apr 22, 2004)

Just sold these 2 angus-charolais heifers 7-15-14. They're weaned, bunk broke and black skinned, all plusses here. Total weight, 1,370. Sold for $1.92, slightly above the statewide price of 191.20 for the weight range. At an averaged 685 each, I overshot my target this year by about 85 pounds but I was busy and had to hold off marketing a bit.



Looking at the typical annual cycle, prices ought to hold up on feeders now through early October, then decline some.

Been at this a while, almost 25 years as a small farmer. I've sold calves for $2-plus with a $1.25 actual cost break-even, and I've sold calves for 33 cents with a 70-cent actual cost break-even. It's been a good long run for the calf price cycle now. It is being pressured by two things, chiefly: drought in the southwestern states and some central west states, and high corn prices gobbling up former pastureland for crops, which provide a 3 times higher ROI than cattle do. Those have held the national cattle herd numbers down to what is right now a 63-year low. It's now getting pretty much to where only the most marginal land in the US is being used for livestock. If it can possibly be cropped, it is being cropped. Pasture around me has been gobbled up by the plow the past 3 years.

Corn is now easing up in price, which will be good for feeders and hold up calf demand, and it will take years for the cow herd to expand, so it looks like this cycle, already an old man by historical standards, has nowhere to go on the downside for another decade provided there is steady demand, though my opinion is that further upside is limited from here. 

So it is a good time to be a cow-calf farmer or rancher. But like I said before, I have sold calves at 33 cents with a 70-cent break-even, so there's no use in swaggering around flashing my cash now. This is the time for cattle farmers to clean up any outstanding debt, hold the line on that urge to expand your input costs just because times are flush, and save up a nest egg little by little over the next few years for when the cycle turns. It will.

There's a reason the old saying goes that there's only one way to raise 'em right - raise 'em cheap!


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## FarmerDavid (Jul 16, 2012)

Sold some last week averaged [email protected] 2.30$. Those are red and horned but nice looking animals. Got 1.32 for an 1800 lb bull.


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## Lady89 (Feb 22, 2014)

nchobbyfarm said:


> Is the market ever going to find the ceiling?


lets hope not if it keeps going up that is all good for me!

i need a good price on this years calfs to get a new breeding bull with a good blood line


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## njenner (Jul 15, 2013)

We sold a steer that weighed 950 pounds and got $1.70 for him at auction; this was in early June.


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## rambotex (May 5, 2014)

I see a number of things happening in East Texas. First, as Rancher's pass away their places are being divided up amongst the kids. The land values are so high that any child that might wish to continue ranching the place has to buy out the other Siblings and then he can't make it paying interest and a note. One reason we're seeing these numbers is because of the drought of 2011 and there will be another one; not this year i don't think, at least not in East Texas/La, Miss, Alabama. i'm happy for all of you that are enjoying the higher prices but everything cycles and you are one long dry spell away from having to sell some of your stock off unless you've got hay & water stockpiled. I can't remember the year, 20 or so ago, when cows were selling for 18-20 cents here during a drought. if you'd have had water and hay to winter them you'd have made a fortune. the next spring it started raining and the grass came right back. 
Hindsight is always 20/20. Good luck to you small operations; i grew up around them and spent many a Saturday morning cutting calves, vaccinating, and worming cow/calves. Nothing like having cow sh_ _ all over by lunchtime, a sweaty horse, and a good cowdog. Bless these young'uns on this board that won't ever have the opportunity to do those things. God bless those of you that still get to, carry on.


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## Awnry Abe (Mar 21, 2012)

Rambo, I agree. This all started with the TX drought in '11. Massive slaughter started there, and the effects continue to ripple.


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## MO_cows (Aug 14, 2010)

We had cattle in the auction today, the suspense is killing me to know what they brought. We couldn't watch the sale, dropped them off yesterday early, to let them settle in. This is the first time we have sold at auction, it's nerve wracking. I think I'd rather deal with 20 tire kickers off craigslist than wait and wonder. We'll be wearing out a trail to the mailbox.....


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## G. Seddon (May 16, 2005)

Fingers crossed for you, MO_cows!


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## Awnry Abe (Mar 21, 2012)

You'll do great, MO. Your springers weigh 5-700 or so? 2.50-2.80....


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## MO_cows (Aug 14, 2010)

These were "leftover" bulls. Kept them intact because they were pretty good prospects last fall, but a hard winter and lack of extra pens to segregate them and feed them like they should have been, left us with 14-15 mo old bulls at 850, when their sire weighed 1000+ at the same age, not fat just well developed. I hope someone buys them as breeders, the genetics are good they just weren't managed correctly and will look great by the time they are 2 - but I think they will go as feeders.


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## FarmerDavid (Jul 16, 2012)

MO_cows said:


> It won't be a glut but it will ease up the tight supply for the short term and the buyers will take advantage of that like they do everything else. Prices aren't going back to 2010 levels or anything like that, just taking a dip like they do every fall.


In my mind the tight supply is driving the price up, but at the same time its making heifers pretty expensive to hold on to which makes it harder to expand the herd. I can sell that heifer now and have $1500, or i can keep her feed her for 20 months, hope that prices stay up, and have a $1500 calf to sell. Is my thinking off? 

I kept two beautiful heifers this year out of my two favorite moms. Their were two others I'd have loved to keep, would have most years, but could turn down sale barn prices, it was pretty hard keeping the two that I did.


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## Awnry Abe (Mar 21, 2012)

FarmerDavid said:


> In my mind the tight supply is driving the price up, but at the same time its making heifers pretty expensive to hold on to which makes it harder to expand the herd. I can sell that heifer now and have $1500, or i can keep her feed her for 20 months, hope that prices stay up, and have a $1500 calf to sell. Is my thinking off?
> 
> I kept two beautiful heifers this year out of my two favorite moms. Their were two others I'd have loved to keep, would have most years, but could turn down sale barn prices, it was pretty hard keeping the two that I did.


No, I don't think your thinking is off. In the simplest of terms, your reasoning is correct. But other 'holistic' factors should be considered, that are unique and particular to you, your herd, and your land. Is your herd aging? Are you nearing capacity? Etc.


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## MO_cows (Aug 14, 2010)

Woo hoo! The check came already. The bulls weighed more than we estimated, averaged 888. Must not have been any shrink, either. Hubby said they walked off the trailer like they owned the place, not stressed, so they would have went right after the hay and water in their pen. They brought $189/cwt, it's a good day!


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## Awnry Abe (Mar 21, 2012)

That's great, MO!


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## slingshot (Jun 25, 2014)

Wow $2.80 in MO for steers! 

My steers are fabulous looking, for that price I should drive them there and sell them. 

Seems like Midwest prices are much higher than ours( Northeast) quality is also better across the board but we don't do too bad. Late April I paid $1.35 for my best looking steer and $1.60 for another they averaged 545lb. They are much bigger now. This is the report from a few weeks ago:


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## FarmerDavid (Jul 16, 2012)

Ya it sure looks like a guy could truck them in here and make money. Of course that's a big part of why they are higher here, they are closer to the feed and feedlots.


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## haypoint (Oct 4, 2006)

There will always be ups and downs. A couple years of drought causes a big sell off, dropping prices. Good pasture and many seek to expand, holding heifers for breeding, shortens supply, up go prices.
Right now we are at record low numbers of cattle, that shoves up the price. Price goes up and everyone wants into the cattle business, that cuts back the number going to slaughter, shoving the price up farther. 
Looks like plenty of hay and pasture in most places and corn price is dropping. So, don't expect a big sell off of cattle.
In a couple years, when prices drop to a buck a pound and corn tops $8 a bu, the marginal cattle men will sell off everything. That dump will flood the market, driving prices down farther.I don't know if we'll see 80 cent feeders again, but it is historically possible.


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## rambotex (May 5, 2014)

haypoint said:


> There will always be ups and downs. A couple years of drought causes a big sell off, dropping prices. Good pasture and many seek to expand, holding heifers for breeding, shortens supply, up go prices.
> Right now we are at record low numbers of cattle, that shoves up the price. Price goes up and everyone wants into the cattle business, that cuts back the number going to slaughter, shoving the price up farther.
> Looks like plenty of hay and pasture in most places and corn price is dropping. So, don't expect a big sell off of cattle.
> In a couple years, when prices drop to a buck a pound and corn tops $8 a bu, the marginal cattle men will sell off everything. That dump will flood the market, driving prices down farther.I don't know if we'll see 80 cent feeders again, but it is historically possible.


Great Post, everything cycles. If you had a big hay barn right now and could afford to stockpile lots of hay you'd be ready for the next drought and be able to buy low and sell high when the prices went back up. Step Son told me he had a guy quote him $3,500 for bred Angus with calf by side, crazy.


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## FarmerDavid (Jul 16, 2012)

How long have we been at record low numbers? Seems I've been hearing that for quite awhile. I expect alot of acres in our part of the country to go back to pasture. Lots went to corn ground 7 yrs ago when corn prices went up. I expect well see good prices for several years till herd numbers get up. Maybe some old timers will decide its a good time to get out and give us young guys our turn to expand.


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## Donna from Mo (Jan 8, 2003)

A heifer lost a calf over the weekend, and I thought about buying a bobby calf to put on her. I called a large dairy at Higginsville Saturday, but had to leave a message. Today the guy returned my call. I had already decided to simply dry the cow up. She is half Hereford. I've milked her three times, and never gotten more than half a gallon. I know she will give more in a few days, but I don't think it will hurt just to let her go dry. Since the guy called, I asked him what he is asking for his Holstein bull calves, expecting him to say $250. Nope. $350.


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## Awnry Abe (Mar 21, 2012)

rambotex said:


> Great Post, everything cycles. If you had a big hay barn right now and could afford to stockpile lots of hay you'd be ready for the next drought and be able to buy low and sell high when the prices went back up. Step Son told me he had a guy quote him $3,500 for bred Angus with calf by side, crazy.


I was able to get hay for $25, so I bought two year's worth with my $$$$ check from the sale barn.


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## FarmerDavid (Jul 16, 2012)

How big of bales were they? When you figure out what you have in a bale in baling it fertilizing it break even looks to be a best case senerio at $25. 

I need to invest in a hay barn. I'm not happy enough with how hay keeps outside to buy a bunch if extra up.


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## aoconnor1 (Jun 19, 2014)

rambotex said:


> Great Post, everything cycles. If you had a big hay barn right now and could afford to stockpile lots of hay you'd be ready for the next drought and be able to buy low and sell high when the prices went back up. Step Son told me he had a guy quote him $3,500 for bred Angus with calf by side, crazy.


That's precisely why my dilemma with my bull occurred, dang cow/calf pairs are outrageous out here. Just a young cow or heifer that are old enough and open can go for 2000 where I am. So letting my bull out to a neighbor was the best plan. I am hoping for a price drop for my buying ability, but hate that others would have to sell low again.


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## TripleD (Feb 12, 2011)

I got my check yesterday on 6 calves that went to the sale barn.

(hfr 295lb @ 1.80 ) (hfr 260lb @ 247.50) (bull 295lb @ 337.50 ) (bull 285lb @ 1.80 ) (bull 340lb @3.35 ) ( bull 370lb @ 2.60 ) I'm happy....


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## njenner (Jul 15, 2013)

We bought a bottle calf about 6 weeks ago and paid $300.


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## MO_cows (Aug 14, 2010)

TripleD said:


> I got my check yesterday on 6 calves that went to the sale barn.
> 
> (hfr 295lb @ 1.80 ) (hfr 260lb @ 247.50) (bull 295lb @ 337.50 ) (bull 285lb @ 1.80 ) (bull 340lb @3.35 ) ( bull 370lb @ 2.60 ) I'm happy....



Were some beef and some dairy? There was a big difference in some of those prices for similar weights. Like, the 295 lb bull was worth about twice as much as the 285 lb bull, wondering why? But, yes, I'd be doing the happy dance too, getting over $1000 for a 340-pounder! That's a good day!


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## TripleD (Feb 12, 2011)

MO_cows said:


> Were some beef and some dairy? There was a big difference in some of those prices for similar weights. Like, the 295 lb bull was worth about twice as much as the 285 lb bull, wondering why? But, yes, I'd be doing the happy dance too, getting over $1000 for a 340-pounder! That's a good day!


 All beef cows . The 2 that brought 1.80lb were my small frame stock. I drive buy the 3 big frame heifers I saved just wondering if they should have gone too !:smack


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## haypoint (Oct 4, 2006)

http://www.davidclarkauction.com/images/8-4-14%20Mrkt%20Report.pdf


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## nchobbyfarm (Apr 10, 2011)

TripleD said:


> All beef cows . The 2 that brought 1.80lb were my small frame stock. I drive buy the 3 big frame heifers I saved just wondering if they should have gone too !:smack


Powell's?


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## TripleD (Feb 12, 2011)

nchobbyfarm said:


> Powell's?


 ? They went to Norwood....


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## nchobbyfarm (Apr 10, 2011)

TripleD said:


> ? They went to Norwood....


Ok. Just curious about location. Always wonder if I would do better elsewhere. Powell's is in Smithfield.


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## Allen W (Aug 2, 2008)

Feeders down on the board for the last several days. http://quotes.ino.com/charting/?s=CME_GF.F15.E


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## FarmerDavid (Jul 16, 2012)

Coming back some today. Looks like increasing the limits worked. What are you hearing about y the price dropped? I've heard to many fat cows, and that their are enough culls that packers can fill orders and put some pressure on the feeder market.


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## collegeboundgal (Jul 17, 2005)

FarmerDavid said:


> How long have we been at record low numbers? Seems I've been hearing that for quite awhile. I expect alot of acres in our part of the country to go back to pasture. Lots went to corn ground 7 yrs ago when corn prices went up. I expect well see good prices for several years till herd numbers get up. Maybe some old timers will decide its a good time to get out and give us young *guys* our turn to expand.


 *cough* *cough* and gals...


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## FarmerDavid (Jul 16, 2012)

collegeboundgal said:


> *cough* *cough* and gals...


That was a generic "guys"


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## collegeboundgal (Jul 17, 2005)

FarmerDavid said:


> That was a generic "guys"


 gotcha :thumb:


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## francismilker (Jan 12, 2006)

I was told by a very seasoned rancher today that runs 400 black mama cows that in his lifetime he's never been able to buy an acre of ground and pay for it with the sale of one calf until now. His advice to me was buy land and buy cattle while interest rates are low. 

I think I'll let the bank keep their money for now. 

What goes up must come down.


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## Gabriel (Dec 2, 2008)

One calf won't pay for an acre of land around here. What's worse - it takes 15 acres to raise that calf. I doubt prices will remain high for the next 15 years.


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## ycanchu2 (Oct 21, 2011)

Gabriel said:


> One calf won't pay for an acre of land around here. What's worse - it takes 15 acres to raise that calf. I doubt prices will remain high for the next 15 years.


I thought you were in Tennessee? Have you moved?


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## Gabriel (Dec 2, 2008)

ycanchu2 said:


> I thought you were in Tennessee? Have you moved?


Yep! Got tired of the cold and wet. :facepalm:


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## Alaska (Jun 16, 2012)

If its all done with money on hand I say its good advice. If its done with loans BAD 
ADVICE


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