# Silver at a 5 year low



## Nevada

Silver spot price is at lows we haven't seen in almost 5 years.

http://silverprice.org/

I see it as a buying opportunity. But you decide for yourself.


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## Belfrybat

I purchased some earlier this week, and then it dropped even more. I'm really on the fence as to whether to buy more.


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## FakeMountainMan

It can't get much cheaper than that. It will go back the other way sooner or later... I would buy if I had any FRN's to spare


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## Nevada

Belfrybat said:


> I purchased some earlier this week, and then it dropped even more. I'm really on the fence as to whether to buy more.


I believe that to really see silver take off that you'll have to wait 5 years. While anything can happen, I don't see silver as a short term speculative investment. If you can't wait 5 years then silver probably isn't for you.

On the upside, it's good insurance against things going wrong, such as hyperinflation, currency collapse, war, regime change, and other SHTF scenarios.

I also think the risk is low. I don't think that silver can drop a lot farther because of the fundamental costs of production. Any drop below about $17/oz would have to be short lived. If you bought silver 3 years ago you have lost your shirt, but I don't see how that can be repeated for the next 3 years.


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## Wolf mom

As one who does not follow gold & silver, why has it dropped?


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## Tricky Grama

How do you buy, Nevada? Bars? Coins? What do you think is best? Oh, & what's it at now?


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## Nevada

Wolf mom said:


> As one who does not follow gold & silver, why has it dropped?


That's a good question. It's not like the dollar isn't inflating or that we're not contemplating war.

The best answer I can give you is that the silver market is being heavily manipulated by paper silver trading. The physical silver (and gold) market is small compared to the highly leveraged paper silver market, so paper silver trading dominates the silver price. But paper silver trading isn't backed by a lot of silver, maybe 1 ounce in 1,000 might exist (some say even that might not exist). The writers of paper silver contracts have huge motivation to suppress the price of silver.

Some people have suggested that there should be two different markets for paper and physical silver trading. I believe that the day will come when paper silver traders will insist on delivery and the paper silver market will collapse, so physical silver will eventually control the market anyway.


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## Nevada

Tricky Grama said:


> How do you buy, Nevada? Bars? Coins? What do you think is best? Oh, & what's it at now?


I like bars because the premium is a little less than rounds & coins, and I always buy Johnson Matthey 1 ounce bars. I buy them online. I've dealt with a number of vendors, but this one probably has the best selection and is the most popular.

http://www.jmbullion.com/

I avoid any more premium than I have to pay, like fancy art or collector values. I always assume that when I go to sell that I'll only get metal value. I also insist on LBMA approved silver bars, since their bars will be accepted everywhere without assay fees.

There's a lot more to know, but those are the basics.

As for current price, it's about $18.60/$18.70 for Bid/Ask right now. Track live bid price here (automatic 10 second updated chart).

http://silverprice.org/


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## wes917

Nevada said:


> I like bars because the premium is a little less than rounds & coins, and I always buy Johnson Matthey 1 ounce bars. I buy them online. I've dealt with a number of vendors, but this one probably has the best selection and is the most popular.
> 
> http://www.jmbullion.com/
> 
> I avoid any more premium than I have to pay, like fancy art or collector values. I always assume that when I go to sell that I'll only get metal value. I also insist on LBMA approved silver bars, since their bars will be accepted everywhere without assay fees.
> 
> There's a lot more to know, but those are the basics.
> 
> As for current price, it's about $18.60/$18.70 for Bid/Ask right now. Track live bid price here (automatic 10 second updated chart).
> 
> http://silverprice.org/



I like the JM bars to bc of their serial numbers. I keep an excel file with the numbers just in case someone breaks in and finds them, at least I can turn the numbers in.


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## Nevada

wes917 said:


> I like the JM bars to bc of their serial numbers. I keep an excel file with the numbers just in case someone breaks in and finds them, at least I can turn the numbers in.


I do that also, but I maintain a notebook with receipts. When I receive silver in the mail I write the serial numbers on the receipt. I like your method better, since it can be kept off premise at a server somewhere.

There are LBMA approved bars made that don't have serial numbers; Rand, RMC & OPM bars for example. Really, you just can't go wrong with JM bars.

I like the 10 oz Royal Canadian Mint bars though. They are slightly less expensive than JM 10 oz bars, and they're .9999 instead if .999 purity. They are also LBMA approved.

But I don't happen to collect 10 oz bars. I just stay with the 1 oz JM bars.


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## unregistered353870

Belfrybat said:


> I purchased some earlier this week, and then it dropped even more. I'm really on the fence as to whether to buy more.


If you believed it was a good deal at the higher price, it's a better deal now...though I guess it depends on how much silver you want to own. I'm buying as much as I can get my hands on locally.


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## Belfrybat

I've only been buying for two months, so am a rank beginner. I've purchased a couple of dozen silver eagles from a local dealer as he had a lot to unload and was only charging $1.50 above spot. When he buys, he adds $1.00 over spot on silver eagles, but only spot price on any other silver. The rest I've gotten from JM Bullion and Provident metals.  I started out buying bars, but have also purchased some rounds as the local dealer said rounds are often easier to unload. Like Nevada, I'm sticking to 1 oz. amounts, except for one 10 oz Sunshine bar I purchased early on. 

Since I'm new at buying silver, I didn't think about serial numbers. The two I've primarily purchased -- OPM and Sunshine are LMBA approved, the premium is less than JM, but they don't have serial numbers. Now you have given me something else to think about.


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## Nevada

Belfrybat said:


> The two I've primarily purchased -- OPM and Sunshine are LMBA approved, the premium is less than JM, but they don't have serial numbers.


I don't think Sunshine Mint is LBMA approved. But the US mint uses their blanks to make silver eagles and they are IRA approved, so they should be OK.


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## plowjockey

Wolf mom said:


> As one who does not follow gold & silver, why has it dropped?



Gold and silver is a speculation buy, hawked that it's value can only go up, as the end of the world approaches and they will be the only things of value (like it even matters).

Problem - the world did not end.

The reality was that the value of gold and silver was hugely inflated based solely on hype, by those in the know, who sold out at the top and every one else - still waiting for the end of the world, is left " holding the bag".

Gold is $1300 down from $1800 Maybe a great time to buy more. The world is going to end sometime.


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## Nevada

plowjockey said:


> Gold and silver is a speculation buy, hawked that it's value can only go up, as the end of the world approaches and they will be the only things of value (like it even matters).


I don't buy silver as a safe haven investment. I buy it because I believe that industrial uses will outstrip supply in 5 years.

That said, silver & gold have their place as a safe haven investment as a hedge against inflation. But if the SHTF I doubt that precious metals will be worth anything. People will be concerned with eating and keeping warm. They won't want your gold or silver.


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## plowjockey

> hedge against inflation.


Silver is now about $15/oz higher than it was 34 years ago.

http://silverprice.org/silver-price-history.html


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## Nevada

plowjockey said:


> Silver is now about $15/oz higher than it was 34 years ago.
> 
> http://silverprice.org/silver-price-history.html


I think silver and gold prices are both artificially depressed. The fact that gold and silver (particularly silver) can be manipulated makes it a risky short term investment.


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## Wolf mom

Nevada said:


> I believe that industrial uses will outstrip supply in 5 years..


I asked a neighbor why he believed silver prices had fallen and his answer was because industrial uses for silver are down. He said the spot market (individuals buying silver) is a just small portion of silver buying.

So, Nevada, according to him, you're right on target if the economy recovers in 5 +/- years.


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## Nevada

Wolf mom said:


> I asked a neighbor why he believed silver prices had fallen and his answer was because industrial uses for silver are down. He said the spot market (individuals buying silver) is a just small portion of silver buying.
> 
> So, Nevada, according to him, you're right on target if the economy recovers in 5 +/- years.


Some uses are down, such a photography migrating to digital, while other uses are up, like the growing consumption of solar PV cells. According to the USGS consumption is healthy.

http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/silver/


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## plowjockey

Is demand even a factor any more in precious metals?

The world, especially China and India have been gobbling up gold, for several years now, while prices have continued to steady decline.

http://online.wsj.com/articles/indias-appetite-for-gold-improves-1408964049


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## unregistered168043

plowjockey said:


> Is demand even a factor any more in precious metals?
> 
> The world, especially China and India have been gobbling up gold, for several years now, while prices have continued to steady decline.
> 
> http://online.wsj.com/articles/indias-appetite-for-gold-improves-1408964049


Sure they have because they know that the economy collapsed in '08 and never recovered. Its is being held up artificially by government. You say the "world didn't end" nobody ever suggested it would, but the real global economy did. I buy gold because I'm betting that the government can't artificially create an economy and sustain it indefinitely. The fundamentals don't exist.

I'm betting that, within the next year, two at MOST, the facade is going to fall away and we are going to have to deal with the economic realities of the economic collapse. In times of uncertainty, people reach for gold, and when they do the price will skyrocket.

I think alot of people are confused about what TSHTF might involve . It's not necessarily a lawless, mad max scenario. More likely it will involved EVEN MORE government, police are not being militarized to battle pot dealers.

You'll still need to come up with your property tax, and you'll still be able to buy goods though you might have to stand in line and pay 15,20, or even 100 times the price.


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## Nevada

plowjockey said:


> Is demand even a factor any more in precious metals?


Sure. Industrial demand for silver is enormous. It's crashed the silver price in the past (when Polaroid stopped using it in their instant film) and it's raised the price on new industrial uses.

I remember when palladium was $25/oz back in the 1970s, then cars needed catalytic converters. Palladium is now almost $900/ounce. Will hybrid & electric cars reverse that demand? Probably.

The explosion in popularity of solar PV panels seems to be driving silver demand today. We'll see where that goes.


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## Nevada

Darntootin said:


> I'm betting that, within the next year, two at MOST, the facade is going to fall away and we are going to have to deal with the economic realities of the economic collapse.


I do a lot of reading about the impending economic collapse. I'm always looking for a plausible scenario that might make it happen, but I don't find it. I can't say for sure that it won't happen, but I think talk of economic collapse is driven more by political motivation than economic reality.

I follow and respect the opinions of Peter Schiff, and he sees an economic collapse on our horizon. The problem is that Peter Schiff is in the business of selling precious metals. I listen to what he says, but I have to take it with a grain of salt.


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## Danaus29

20 years ago I could get a box of 50 .22 long rifle bullets for the price of an ounce of silver. Today if I could find .22 long rifle bullets I could get a box of 50 for the price of an ounce of silver. It's at least kept up with inflation which can't be said for savings accounts or hoarded cash.


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## unregistered168043

Nevada said:


> I do a lot of reading about the impending economic collapse. I'm always looking for a plausible scenario that might make it happen, but I don't find it. I can't say for sure that it won't happen, but I think talk of economic collapse is driven more by political motivation than economic reality.
> 
> I follow and respect the opinions of Peter Schiff, and he sees an economic collapse on our horizon. The problem is that Peter Schiff is in the business of selling precious metals. I listen to what he says, but I have to take it with a grain of salt.


Well you should also take everything that comes out of the fed, government, and mainstream investment gurus that you see on TV with the same grain of salt. Schiff might be selling precious metals but they are selling a "recovery" and a return to the same old economic policies of creating bubbles that burst. Why? Because they get rich that way.

If your looking for an economic collapse scenario that is plausible then I think you are missing it. It already happened. We never recovered, the government just stepped in and is holding it all up artificially. Now the only question that remains is how long will that last. Given the way that they are militarizing local police, surveilling the public, and quietly passing laws that bypass the basic pillars of citizen protection under law, I'd say they know it won't be long. Now look at China, India, Russia, and the rest of the BRIC nations hording gold ( not just people but central banks and governments), look at the way Europe is preparing for unrest. Do we really believe that homeland security purchased 2 billion rounds of hollow point ammo for target practice? Thats enough to fight the Iraq war right here at home. Ever see those cardboard cutouts that they are using for target practice? Scary stuff...kids, pregnant moms, ordinary citizens.

I dont know how you could not see whats going on. This is just my opinion, I've been wrong before, but it doesnt look good to me. I see a very plausible bad case scenario. I'd have it timed some time after the "official" end of QE ( though QE is still going on through the back door ). I personally think they are going to try to start a war to cover the collapse, but it might happen any number of ways.


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## plowjockey

Darntootin said:


> Sure they have because they know that the economy collapsed in '08 and never recovered. Its is being held up artificially by government. You say the "world didn't end" nobody ever suggested it would, but the real global economy did. I buy gold because I'm betting that the government can't artificially create an economy and sustain it indefinitely. The fundamentals don't exist.
> 
> I'm betting that, within the next year, two at MOST, the facade is going to fall away and we are going to have to deal with the economic realities of the economic collapse. In times of uncertainty, people reach for gold, and when they do the price will skyrocket.
> 
> I think alot of people are confused about what TSHTF might involve . It's not necessarily a lawless, mad max scenario. More likely it will involved EVEN MORE government, police are not being militarized to battle pot dealers.
> 
> You'll still need to come up with your property tax, and you'll still be able to buy goods though you might have to stand in line and pay 15,20, or even 100 times the price.


High demand for gold should have kept the price heading upwards.

It didn't.

Now, or any time into the future - ever, will an economy functioning soleley by the trading of gold, will ever even survive, let alone flourish, IMO.


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## arabian knight

plowjockey said:


> High demand for gold should have kept the price heading upwards.
> 
> It didn't.
> 
> Now, or any time into the future - ever, will an economy functioning soleley by the trading of gold, will ever even survive, let alone flourish, IMO.


Well when gold went up a few years there it was not because of High Demand it was however was based on the different wars going on, and the value of the dollar but not the demand so much. Now that things have some what settled down as far as the dollar is concerned gold has pretty much leveled off right around that 1300 an ounce position, some days higher some days a little lower.
But demand right now is not playing a part in gold like it did many years ago.


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## Nevada

Darntootin said:


> If your looking for an economic collapse scenario that is plausible then I think you are missing it. It already happened. We never recovered, the government just stepped in and is holding it all up artificially. Now the only question that remains is how long will that last.


The mortgage crisis hurt the economy pretty badly, but we are recovering. I see it in recovering real estate prices in Las Vegas. We've still got a long way to go, but it will eventually recover.

The Fed is propping up the economy, that's true. They are just bridging a difficult time. If the Fed wasn't doing QE projects things will be much worse. This is how to survive a depression; you spend borrowed money on public works projects to keep Americans fed.

The recession won't last forever. Maybe another 4 years or so and it will be over.


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## Nevada

arabian knight said:


> Well when gold went up a few years there it was not because of High Demand it was however was based on the different wars going on, and the value of the dollar but not the demand so much. Now that things have some what settled down as far as the dollar is concerned gold has pretty much leveled off right around that 1300 an ounce position, some days higher some days a little lower.
> But demand right now is not playing a part in gold like it did many years ago.


During the first half of my life, until the early 1970s, gold demand was moot. Gold was not traded in the USA. In fact it was illegal to own much gold. You could own a little jewelry and that was about it.

Today the price of gold & silver is mostly set by paper commodity traders. The physical silver and gold markets play only a small part in gold and silver prices.


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## DEKE01

The last few times the Fed has hinted at raising interest rates, PMs have tanked. The Fed will raise rates to fight inflation or if the economy gets over stimulated. As there is no evidence of an over stimulated economy, the increase will be inflation related. My plan is to buy PM on the dip after a Fed rate increase because inflation will take PM prices higher in the long run. 

That is simply my opinion and I've been wrong before. But you have to have a plan and that's my plan.


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## Nevada

DEKE01 said:


> The last few times the Fed has hinted at raising interest rates, PMs have tanked. The Fed will raise rates to fight inflation or if the economy gets over stimulated. As there is no evidence of an over stimulated economy, the increase will be inflation related. My plan is to buy PM on the dip after a Fed rate increase because inflation will take PM prices higher in the long run.
> 
> That is simply my opinion and I've been wrong before. But you have to have a plan and that's my plan.


Yes, silver will probably react to inflation, but that will be a minor rise compared to the supply shortage we'll see in 4 to 5 years. I believe that silver could go to hundreds of dollars per ounce when that happens.


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## DEKE01

Nevada said:


> Yes, silver will probably react to inflation, but that will be a minor rise compared to the supply shortage we'll see in 4 to 5 years. I believe that silver could go to hundreds of dollars per ounce when that happens.


You may be right, but I've been hearing that same prediction for 35 years. My mother worked for a high tech firm in the 80s and they were afraid for their silver supply for printed circuit boards.


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## Nevada

DEKE01 said:


> You may be right, but I've been hearing that same prediction for 35 years. My mother worked for a high tech firm in the 80s and they were afraid for their silver supply for printed circuit boards.


I'm relying on the USGS annual reports. It's not really new, but doesn't date back as far as 35 years. The USGS first suggested that demand would outstrip supply in the year 2020 in their 2009 report. The annual reports after that suggest that silver is still on track to run out in 2020.

But of course that assumes that the government and scientists are correct, since the USGS is a government supported scientific organization. To me that seems pretty authoritative, but I know people who would never take the word of either the government or the scientific community.


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## DEKE01

Nevada said:


> I'm relying on the USGS annual reports. It's not really new, but doesn't date back as far as 35 years. The USGS first suggested that demand would outstrip supply in the year 2020 in their 2009 report. The annual reports after that suggest that silver is still on track to run out in 2020.
> 
> But of course that assumes that the government and scientists are correct, since the USGS is a government supported scientific organization. To me that seems pretty authoritative, but I know people who would never take the word of either the government or the scientific community.


Yes, we know you love your big gov't. You place great faith in big gov't and blindly ignore peak oil predictions. In 1919, 2000, 2001, 2005, and probably lots of other years, scientists, industry experts, USGS, and the Energy Information Agency of the DOE published studies and predicted we had reached peak oil production. All were wrong. All of them will eventually be right..., probably. 

None of them understood the role of fracking. And none of them understand the role of future developments which will make oil prices fall from whatever the norm is in that day. it may be new supplies, declining demand for various reasons, synthetic oil replacements, or something I can't imagine. The one certainty is that change happens. 

Will silver become moot due to an industrial alternative? Probably not anytime soon, but in 1900 few people imagined man would walk on the moon in less than 70 years.


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## Nevada

DEKE01 said:


> None of them understood the role of fracking. And none of them understand the role of future developments which will make oil prices fall from whatever the norm is in that day. it may be new supplies, declining demand for various reasons, synthetic oil replacements, or something I can't imagine. The one certainty is that change happens.


Hint: You really don't want to discuss oil with a retired oil man.


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## DEKE01

Nevada said:


> Hint: You really don't want to discuss oil with a retired oil man.


Hint: I would love to discuss oil with a retired oilman if I could find one. I would spend most of the time listening.

You resort to obfuscation when confronted with information which proves your point wrong. I just proved USGS gets it wrong after you indicated you place great faith in it. I'm sure USGS is right on occasion, but I would not use any gov't agency as a basis for investment advice. Bureaucrats are not typically market mavens. 

If you are a retired oil man, you were an abject failure if we are to believe your self described financial status. I'm not saying you weren't an oilman or that you are an abject failure, only that there is a dissonance between your previous statements.

if an oilman, you either didn't understand the business of oil or you didn't understand personal finance, so your investment advice is dubious at best.


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## Nevada

DEKE01 said:


> Hint: I would love to discuss oil with a retired oilman if I could find one. I would spend most of the time listening.
> 
> You resort to obfuscation when confronted with information which proves your point wrong. I just proved USGS gets it wrong after you indicated you place great faith in it. I'm sure USGS is right on occasion, but I would not use any gov't agency as a basis for investment advice. Bureaucrats are not typically market mavens.
> 
> If you are a retired oil man, you were an abject failure if we are to believe your self described financial status. I'm not saying you weren't an oilman or that you are an abject failure, only that there is a dissonance between your previous statements.
> 
> if an oilman, you either didn't understand the business of oil or you didn't understand personal finance, so your investment advice is dubious at best.


I'm not understanding the point of personal attacks. We're discussing silver investment.

I rely on USGS studies. You don't have to.


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## Trainwrek

Nevada said:


> The mortgage crisis hurt the economy pretty badly, but we are recovering. I see it in recovering real estate prices in Las Vegas. We've still got a long way to go, but it will eventually recover.
> 
> The Fed is propping up the economy, that's true. They are just bridging a difficult time. If the Fed wasn't doing QE projects things will be much worse. This is how to survive a depression; you spend borrowed money on public works projects to keep Americans fed.
> 
> The recession won't last forever. Maybe another 4 years or so and it will be over.


Hey Nevada, I sure hope you are right. I have alot more to gain if you are and alot more to lose if I'm right ( I guess we all do ). But I think what you are seeing as far as a real estate recovery is the result of money printing and artificially low interest rates. That can't be sustained, and when they stop printing and bond yields rise it's going to go right back down. They are trying to re-inflate a bubble but its not going to happen. Real demand doesn't exist, as the jobs and incomes aren't there to justify the real estate gains of the last 20 years. You can't maintain 250k home prices when most people are struggling with part time jobs just keep their head above water. There is no real demand, just government/fed smoke and mirrors. A ridiculously high percentage of home purchases are being bought by hedge fund speculators. When they finally wake up to the fact that the bubble will not be reflated they are going to try and dump those homes and they won't find buyers. Thats going to fuel another big drop.

It's true that things would be alot worse without QE, but that pain is necessary for a recovery to take place. What the fed is doing is numbing the pain but preventing the recovery. Just take a look at the stock market bubble, whenever we get bad economic news the market spikes because investors think the fed will continue QE. The market has formed around QE, it is dependent on it instead of any real demand driven activity. I'm betting that the government cannot hold back the tide of reality forever. They can fudge the numbers, spin a "recovery" on the news, and print money only so long. The reality of the fact that Americans are not producing enough can't be ignored. Manufacturing is at historic lows. We aren't employed in productive, wealth building work. 

The Fed is keeping the pain away but also preventing the economy from moving on, preventing the capital of failed businesses from being absorbed and used by new businesses with better business models. QE is like heroine, you have to take more to keep from feeling the pain but the pain is necessary if you ever want to get well.


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## Nevada

Trainwrek said:


> But I think what you are seeing as far as a real estate recovery is the result of money printing and artificially low interest rates. That can't be sustained, and when they stop printing and bond yields rise it's going to go right back down.


Over the past 3 years my house value has doubled. While we've seen modest inflation (I think maybe 5% to 7% annually) during that time, there's no way the dollar has lost half its value over 3 years. I think that most of the increase in real estate value is restored confidence in the housing market.

Money printing won't have to go on forever, just until the recession resolves. If the money printing stops at the right time the economy can sustain itself.


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## TnAndy

Nevada said:


> The Fed is propping up the economy, that's true. They are just bridging a difficult time. If the Fed wasn't doing QE projects things will be much worse. This is how to survive a depression; you spend borrowed money on public works projects to keep Americans fed.


I'd disagree. The purpose of QE was to prop up the major banks ( little ones are allowed to fail ), and Wall St. It's had very little effect on Main St.




Nevada said:


> The recession won't last forever. Maybe another 4 years or so and it will be over.


Nope....anemic growth from now on, and be lucky if it doesn't sink into a permanent state of economic depression.

We've reached peak growth, IMHO, for a variety of reasons. Everything from silver running out ( which I agree it is ), to CHEAP oil running out (no cheap energy, no growth) ( fracking has only temporarily provided some relief....but if you examine it closely and see how much drilling it takes to keep up that relief, and how much money is being poured down those holes, you'll see it can't continue)to peak debt, to an aging population (and that is what the border invasion is about), I simply don't see any way we're ever going back to 'normal'.


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## TnAndy

Nevada said:


> Money printing won't have to go on forever, just until the recession resolves. If the money printing stops at the right time the economy can sustain itself.


Money printing will never stop. It can't. It's built into a system that all new money that comes into existence has to be lent, and paid back WITH INTEREST.

When 40-50% of federal spending is done by the FED simply buying back the debt, they aren't going to get off that merry-go-round until the crash happens and they are forced to.

They find other ways to try to hide what is going on ( Look at the amount of US debt Belgium supposedly bought recently ), but the fact is they can't quit printing ( or digitizing, which is what most of it is ).


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## Trainwrek

Nevada said:


> Over the past 3 years my house value has doubled. While we've seen modest inflation (I think maybe 5% to 7% annually) during that time, there's no way the dollar has lost half its value over 3 years. I think that most of the increase in real estate value is restored confidence in the housing market.
> 
> Money printing won't have to go on forever, just until the recession resolves. If the money printing stops at the right time the economy can sustain itself.


People do not have the incomes to sustain the bubble. Thats the difference between a real organic economy based on real demand, and an artificial government produced one.

Banks are laying off thousands of employees in their mortgage departments. The low interest rates and easy credit has caused alot of speculators to buy into the housing market. A very large percentage of purchases are from hedge fund speculators ( especially in your area ). They are hoping to make money if the bubble gets reflated. But when interest rates go up and the fed stops money printing ( if ever ) they are going to realize there is no demand. They will try to unload those houses and that will spur the next big drop.


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## Nevada

TnAndy said:


> Nope....anemic growth from now on, and be lucky if it doesn't sink into a permanent state of economic depression.


Give it 4 or 5 years. The economy will recover. But it won't look like the early 2000s, any more than it looked like the roaring 20s after the Great Depression.


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## Trainwrek

Nevada said:


> Give it 4 or 5 years. The economy will recover. But it won't look like the early 2000s, any more than it looked like the roaring 20s after the Great Depression.


Its impossible to recover without good paying jobs, and we can't have good paying jobs without production and manufacturing. As long as the focus is on inflating asset prices to maintain an artificial economy it wont happen.

But hey, we can go back and forth all day long nobody really knows for sure what will happen. I just find it alot more likely that government money printing and interest rate cannot take the place of real productive growth. They can 'fool' the markets for a while but they cannot hold back the tide. I hope you are right, and I am wrong.


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## DEKE01

Nevada said:


> I'm not understanding the point of personal attacks. We're discussing silver investment.
> 
> I rely on USGS studies. You don't have to.


Hint: when you dropped your hint, you steered the discussion to your personal experience. I have not attacked you personally, I've simply shown that your statements seem to be contradictory.


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## Nevada

Trainwrek said:


> Its impossible to recover without good paying jobs, and we can't have good paying jobs without production and manufacturing. As long as the focus is on inflating asset prices to maintain an artificial economy it wont happen.


OK, here's how it works. QE will continue for the foreseeable future, until a significant amount of inflation rears it's ugly head. At the point the Fed will have to end QE and raise interest rates to avoid hyperinflation.

I expect high inflation to happen just about the time residential real estate prices recover. That's when banks will start lending again, and that's when we can consider the recession over. With banks lending so people can buy cars, houses, and major appliances the demand for consumer goods will return.

Simply put, banks are not going to be in a mood to lend as long at the toxic real estate assets are still toxic.

So we don't need good jobs to recover, we need better residential real estate prices to recover. Good jobs will be a result of the recovery, not the cause.


----------



## TnAndy

Long term trend. Didn't start in 2000.....started back in the last depression....but really began to accelerate when we went completely off the gold standard in 71.


----------



## plowjockey

TnAndy said:


> I'd disagree. The purpose of QE was to prop up the major banks ( little ones are allowed to fail ), and Wall St. It's had very little effect on Main St.


Hmmm.

I'm seeing new businesses, new factories and new homes, popping up all day long.

They are borrowing that money, from somewhere.


----------



## Trainwrek

Nevada said:


> OK, here's how it works. QE will continue for the foreseeable future, until a significant amount of inflation rears it's ugly head. At the point the Fed will have to end QE and raise interest rates to avoid hyperinflation.


Exactly, and since the entire asset inflation scenario is due to QE and NOT real demand prices will crash when they end QE and raise interest rates.



> I expect high inflation to happen just about the time residential real estate prices recover. That's when banks will start lending again...


To WHO?? Remember the reason we had the first crash was because real demand at those prices didnt exist. They had to lower lending standards and give subprime mortgages to people who couldn't afford them. When they defaulted, the real estate market crashed. Nothing has changed, in fact unemployment and wages are lower in real terms now, then they were in 06. You can't outsmart the basic fundamentals. You need demand to have consumption, and you need purchasing power to have demand, and productive gainful employment to have purchasing power.

I think the exact opposite of what you predict is going to happen, real estate will come down in value to match the lower wages and reduced purchasing power of the consumer. The demand just doesn't exist to support the current prices.







> So we don't need good jobs to recover, we need better residential real estate prices to recover. Good jobs will be a result of the recovery, not the cause.


Putting the cart before the horse. You cannot have a jobless recovery, who will buy the products to spur the economy?? LOL. Real productive employment will never come from inflated asset prices. We need production and savings first to spur the economy, your way is just going from bubble to bubble. Those days are over.


----------



## DEKE01

Trainwrek said:


> Exactly, and since the entire asset inflation scenario is due to QE and NOT real demand prices will crash when they end QE and raise interest rates.
> 
> 
> 
> To WHO?? Remember the reason we had the first crash was because real demand at those prices didnt exist. They had to lower lending standards and give subprime mortgages to people who couldn't afford them. When they defaulted, the real estate market crashed. Nothing has changed, in fact unemployment and wages are lower in real terms now, then they were in 06. You can't get outsmart the basic fundamentals. You need demand to have consumption, and you need purchasing power to have demand, and productive gainful employment to have purchasing power.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Putting the cart before the horse. You cannot have a jobless recovery, who will buy the products to spur the economy?? LOL. Real productive employment will never come from inflated asset prices. We need production and savings first to spur the economy, your way is just going from bubble to bubble. Those days are over.


I like everything but your last sentence. I'm certain our politicians will engineer another bubble in the effort to seek votes.


----------



## Nevada

DEKE01 said:


> I like everything but your last sentence. I'm certain our politicians will engineer another bubble in the effort to seek votes.


We certainly haven't see the last bubble. In fact we'll probably even see a similar "easy credit/real estate" bubble again. Derivative securities are still unregulated, no high-level banker has been prosecuted for fraud, and the banks that were too big to fail are even bigger. The question is not if it could happen again, since it obviously can. The question is why wouldn't they do it again? After all, we let them get away with it, bailed them out, and left the legal structure intact to keep it legal. Of course they'll do it again!


----------



## Trainwrek

Deke, I'm sure. Theyve already got one going in the stock market. But there's no way they'll get it going in the real estate market again without going back to shady subprime mortgages ( which I wouldnt put past them ). But the reality is, there just arent enough interested buyers with the incomes and purchasing power to maintain another real estate bubble.


----------



## InvalidID

Nevada said:


> OK, here's how it works. QE will continue for the foreseeable future, until a significant amount of inflation rears it's ugly head. At the point the Fed will have to end QE and raise interest rates to avoid hyperinflation.
> 
> I expect high inflation to happen just about the time residential real estate prices recover. That's when banks will start lending again, and that's when we can consider the recession over. With banks lending so people can buy cars, houses, and major appliances the demand for consumer goods will return.
> 
> Simply put, banks are not going to be in a mood to lend as long at the toxic real estate assets are still toxic.
> 
> So we don't need good jobs to recover, we need better residential real estate prices to recover. Good jobs will be a result of the recovery, not the cause.



This thought process is along the lines of: IF you bury wine bottles full of cash in old coal mines we can end unemployment. Simply put, it doesn't make sense. Keynesian voodoo economics at it's worst.

Without jobs (decent jobs) house prices don't recover. Who will buy over priced houses if they can't afford them? Why are we in this mess in the first place? People buying what? Buying houses they couldn't afford? 

QE is top down wealth creation. The rich get richer and you get screwed. It doesn't help recover the economy unless the rich spend all that free money on things Americans make or service. That simply can't be done.


----------



## Nevada

InvalidID said:


> Without jobs (decent jobs) house prices don't recover.


Well, housing prices obviously do recover in a poor job market. How else do you explain my house doubling in value over the past 3 years? It's still not where I'd like it to be, but it's a lot better than it was.


----------



## InvalidID

Nevada said:


> We certainly haven't see the last bubble. In fact we'll probably even see a similar "easy credit/real estate" bubble again. Derivative securities are still unregulated, no high-level banker has been prosecuted for fraud, and the banks that were too big to fail are even bigger. The question is not if it could happen again, since it obviously can. The question is why wouldn't they do it again? After all, we let them get away with it, bailed them out, and left the legal structure intact. Of course they'll do it again!


 They they they.... I don't know if you've tried to buy a house lately but the FHA guidelines are far more a PITA than they were. And it's not just the evil bankers to blame. If you took a loan you couldn't afford to repay you're as guilty as the guy that loaned you the money.

As an aside, there's quite a bit of money to be made on foreclosures still. I'm buying a really nice 250 year old cape for about 80k right now. It should be worth closer to 250-300 once it has a new roof and some top end appliances. 
I'm not buying to make a profit mind you. I really like this house and want to live in it. There won't be a recovery in housing until the foreclosures are cleared out. Those can only be cleared out by guys like me who know how to finance without .Gov backing, guys with cash to buy and repair, or when people are making enough money to qualify for FHA loans again.

I'm a serious minority and guys with cash are even smaller. We need to get people back to work or this thing is just a slow drag, lowering the standard of living for 80% of Americans for a decade more.


----------



## InvalidID

Nevada said:


> Well, housing prices obviously do recover is a poor job market. How else do you explain my house doubling in value over the past 3 years? It's still not where I'd like it to be, but it's a lot better than it was.


 I don't know where you are or what the market is like there. IF you were in a REALLY hard hit area of course you'll swing a bit. If there are jobs, (Are you near Vegas?) then there's money.

Of course there's a lot of loose money and speculation as well. If you're house is really that much higher than it was you might consider selling and running....


----------



## Trainwrek

Nevada said:


> Well, housing prices obviously do recover is a poor job market. How else do you explain my house doubling in value over the past 3 years? It's still not where I'd like it to be, but it's a lot better than it was.


I explain in one of two ways #1...It hasn't doubled, but you just think it has. or #2 Hedgefund speculators ( the same ones I referred to in my previous post that are very active in your area in particular ) are causing a very short term spike. Again, they are taking advantage of money printing and cheap credit which you yourself admit is about to dry up.

If your house really has doubled, I suggest you sell out before it comes back down to earth.


----------



## Nevada

InvalidID said:


> I don't know where you are or what the market is like there. IF you were in a REALLY hard hit area of course you'll swing a bit. If there are jobs, (Are you near Vegas?) then there's money.
> 
> Of course there's a lot of loose money and speculation as well. If you're house is really that much higher than it was you might consider selling and running....


The Las Vegas job market is pathetic, there isn't a lot of loose money available for speculation, and the overall housing market is flat. But I still expect more recovery. Replacement value of my house is about $20K above the estimated value. Housing prices have to at least go to replacement value.

Here's the general price history.

2006 - Sold for $178K
2009 - Bought at foreclosure auction for $30K
2014 - Zillow.com estimated value at $65K (was $67K a month ago)

I expect housing to contract a little in the next few months. I'll hang in there. Housing prices are impacted by consumer confidence, not just easy money and speculation.


----------



## InvalidID

Nevada said:


> The Las Vegas job market is pathetic, there isn't a lot of loose money available for speculation, and the overall housing market is flat. But I still expect more recovery. Replacement value of my house is about $20K above the estimated value. Housing prices have to at least go to replacement value.
> 
> Here's the general price history.
> 
> 2006 - Sold for $178K
> 2009 - Bought at foreclosure auction for $30K
> 2014 - Zillow.com estimated value at $65K (was $67K a month ago)
> 
> I expect housing to contract a little in the next few months. I'll hang in there. Housing prices are impacted by consumer confidence, not just easy money and speculation.


 The speculation money isn't from locals it's from Wall Street. Cash buyers.

Don't trust zillow!!! They can be off by as much as 30%, trust the tax value of course. Trust it to be low, but trust it's the most accurate short of a BPO.


----------



## Nevada

Trainwrek said:


> I explain in one of two ways #1...It hasn't doubled, but you just think it has. or #2 Hedgefund speculators ( the same ones I referred to in my previous post that are very active in your area in particular ) are causing a very short term spike. Again, they are taking advantage of money printing and cheap credit which you yourself admit is about to dry up.
> 
> If your house really has doubled, *I suggest you sell* out before it comes back down to earth.


Is that investment advice, or just political posturing?


----------



## Trainwrek

Nevada said:


> I expect housing to contract a little in the next few months. I'll hang in there. *Housing prices are impacted by consumer confidence, not just easy money and speculation*.


And in order to consume people need money, and most people get their money from a job ( which they don't have enough of ).


----------



## DEKE01

Nevada said:


> Well, housing prices obviously do recover in a poor job market. How else do you explain my house doubling in value over the past 3 years? It's still not where I'd like it to be, but it's a lot better than it was.


By the info you provided, your home price got better, but it did not recover. 

How do I explain the price doubling? LV was one of the hardest hit markets in the nation, IIRC. It is not unreasonable to expect a bit of over correction when one of the hottest markets goes suddenly ice cold. You are experiencing a bounce off the bottom, which may or may not last. You are also committing the logical fallacy called "Hasty Generalization" where one takes an extremely small data set, in your case the data set is the price of one house, and creating generalization for all housing. 

In my area, the DC burbs, there was only a very small and short lived decline in housing prices. Due to all the recession proof direct gov't jobs and indirect gov't jobs via gov't contractors, housing demand remained high. Home prices depend on jobs.


----------



## DEKE01

InvalidID said:


> They they they.... I don't know if you've tried to buy a house lately but the FHA guidelines are far more a PITA than they were. And it's not just the evil bankers to blame. If you took a loan you couldn't afford to repay you're as guilty as the guy that loaned you the money.
> 
> As an aside, there's quite a bit of money to be made on foreclosures still. I'm buying a really nice 250 year old cape for about 80k right now. It should be worth closer to 250-300 once it has a new roof and some top end appliances.
> I'm not buying to make a profit mind you. I really like this house and want to live in it. There won't be a recovery in housing until the foreclosures are cleared out. Those can only be cleared out by guys like me who know how to finance without .Gov backing, guys with cash to buy and repair, or when people are making enough money to qualify for FHA loans again.
> 
> I'm a serious minority and guys with cash are even smaller. We need to get people back to work or this thing is just a slow drag, lowering the standard of living for 80% of Americans for a decade more.


I bought a foreclosure in Jan on a 5 ac lot adjacent to my farm. The lot cost $77K in 2007, the house was built for ~$149K in 2008, lived in for 4 months and then sat vacant for 6 years. I paid $80K. The bank had turned down an $80K offer a year before but that one required financing and I could pay cash and close within 3 days. There are still l good deals out there.


----------



## Nevada

DEKE01 said:


> By the info you provided, your home price got better, but it did not recover.
> 
> How do I explain the price doubling? LV was one of the hardest hit markets in the nation, IIRC. It is not unreasonable to expect a bit of over correction when one of the hottest markets goes suddenly ice cold. You are experiencing a bounce off the bottom, which may or may not last. You are also committing the logical fallacy called "Hasty Generalization" where one takes an extremely small data set, in your case the data set is the price of one house, and creating generalization for all housing.
> 
> In my area, the DC burbs, there was only a very small and short lived decline in housing prices. Due to all the recession proof direct gov't jobs and indirect gov't jobs via gov't contractors, housing demand remained high. Home prices depend on jobs.


The house has already been a good investment, and I own it mortgage-free. Figure that rent on a 3 bedroom house around here would be about $800/month, or about $10K per year. I've been here for 4 1/2 years, so I've saved $45K on rent already. On top of that I've seen about $30K in capital appreciation. So considering rent & appreciation, the house has returned about $75 on a $30K investment in under 5 years.

I'm also where I want to be, so I'll keep saving $10K/year on rent for the foreseeable future. Maybe even the rest of my life.

If I do as well on my silver stack as I've done on my home, I'll be a happy camper.


----------



## DEKE01

Nevada said:


> The house has already been a good investment, and I own it mortgage-free. Figure that rent on a 3 bedroom house around here would be about $800/month, or about $10K per year. I've been here for 4 1/2 years, so I've saved $45K on rent already. On top of that I've seen about $30K in capital appreciation. So considering rent & appreciation, the house has returned about $75 on a $30K investment in under 5 years.
> 
> I'm also where I want to be, so I'll keep saving $10K/year on rent for the foreseeable future. Maybe even the rest of my life.
> 
> If I do as well on my silver stack as I've done on my home, I'll be a happy camper.


Sincerely, congrats. I'm glad you're doing well. In fact, I think you are doing so well that you should pay for your own health insurance.


----------



## Nevada

DEKE01 said:


> Sincerely, congrats. I'm glad you're doing well. In fact, I think you are doing so well that you should pay for your own health insurance.


It's pretty clear that you don't want to discuss investments.


----------



## Trainwrek

Nevada said:


> Is that investment advice, or just political posturing?


What's politics got to do with it? This is about economics. When did politics come into it?


----------



## Nevada

Trainwrek said:


> What's politics got to do with it? This is about economics. When did politics come into it?


OK then, if I sold my house where could I put the money to earn enough to offset the $800/month I would have to pay for rent?


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## Trainwrek

Nevada said:


> OK then, if I sold my house where could I put the money to earn enough to offset the $800/month I would have to pay for rent?


I dont know your personal situation, I was just suggesting it if you wanted to turn a quick buck. But of course you know your situation better than anyone, might be best not to gamble with your home. Sounds like you bought it for around 30k? Thats a great deal, you can't lose in the long run.

You know the forecast for a correction in the real estate market is national, it doesn't necessarily apply to every area equally. In some places that were hardest hit by the crash of '08, real estate prices are already where they need to be or close to it. Nevada was practically ground zero for where the prices were hit hardest, thats probably why speculators have been so active there since. But in many places around the country, I still think there is quite a ways to go down and the overall effect on the economy will be dramatic.


----------



## Belfrybat

Well, I've been dithering all weekend on whether to buy more silver right now. It's stayed pretty much the same price, so I jumped in this morning and purchased another lot of OPM rounds. JMBullion was out of the bars. Now I just have to plan on living another 5 - 7 years to hopefully recoup my investment. 

Thanks, Nevada for starting this thread even if it did get rather derailed.


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## Trainwrek

The thing with silver is, there is an industrial demand that helps drive the price. It's not JUST a precious metal or investment hedge. I've heard people with the opinion that, if the economy goes south and demand for goods goes down, then manufacturing slows and hence the demand for silver drops putting downward pressure on the price.

That is how I've heard the more recent disparity in the price of gold/silver explained. With silver not having quite kept up with the increase in gold price after the financial collapse of '08. Gold doubled in price while silver only showed a modest increase.

IDK how true that all is, but it does give me pause for investing too aggressively in silver. I do keep a little though.


----------



## Nevada

Belfrybat said:


> Now I just have to plan on living another 5 - 7 years to hopefully recoup my investment.


I think 5 years is an outside estimate. Look for it to happen in 4-5 years. The price explosion will not be on the date that we run out of silver, it will be on the date that everyone realizes that we're running out of silver. That could be up to a year before we run out.

But there are things that could happen sooner. There could be a crisis in physical silver because of the enormous number of naked short positions in paper silver. If people realize that there is no silver behind their paper silver positions the physical silver market could take off. That could happen at any time.


----------



## Nevada

Silver just took another dive to just below $18.

http://silverprice.org/

Too bad, I bought this month's silver yesterday. I could have saved 50 cents per ounce.


----------



## Belfrybat

Yeah, me too.


----------



## Nevada

Belfrybat said:


> Yeah, me too.


Actually, I would have saved more like 75 cents per ounce by waiting a day. Silver closed the week at $17.82/oz.


----------



## Nevada

Don't look now, but silver is in a free fall in overseas trading. Down about 40 cents.

http://silverprice.org/

Strangely, the dollar is gaining strength.


----------



## watcher

Nevada said:


> I do a lot of reading about the impending economic collapse. I'm always looking for a plausible scenario that might make it happen, but I don't find it. I can't say for sure that it won't happen, but I think talk of economic collapse is driven more by political motivation than economic reality.


I've given it before. In the past seller nations (e.g. China) were more than willing to support the US government because they needed the US market to keep their people working in their factories and they know that if the government fails the market will as well. So the money they 'loan' the the government is looked as a cost of doing business and the interest they get from the loans does help them to build their nations.

Today the Asian market is growing quickly and will soon over take the US market. When it does the sellers will have no reason to continue to support the US government. At that point why would they keep 'loaning' them money?

Add to that the fact once the government must borrow 50+% of its operating budget only a fool would think they'd get any money loaned to the government back. At that point the government will find fewer and fewer and fewer lenders. Either slowly or suddenly you have a government which can not meet its bills. That is a recipe for economic collapse.


----------



## TnAndy

The reason for owning gold and silver long term. Most real things have not increased when priced in real money.



Notice how the price of oil, for example, was off to the races after Nixon cut the last tie of the paper dollar to gold in 1971.


----------



## Nevada

watcher said:


> Today the Asian market is growing quickly and will soon over take the US market.


I'm not going to argue that China hasn't taken over a lot of our manufacturing, because it obviously has. But China isn't poised to surpass the USA markets. Consider that China's GDP is still only about half that of the USA.

I also hear arguments that China is acquiring gold, which is also true. Bit much of that acquired gold is being held privately. The Chinese government is also acquiring gold, but they need it to monetize their currency. Again, China has only about half the currency in circulation that we have, yet we have about 8 times more gold. They have a long way to go to catch up.

I don't see a collapse scenario.


----------



## Nevada

TnAndy said:


> Nixon cut the last tie of the paper dollar to gold in 1971.


Not exactly. What Nixon did was to end the redemption of gold & silver for our currency. You can't demand gold or silver in exchange for US currency, but the 8 tons of gold is still there (well, purportedly it's there) to back it.


----------



## Nevada

The financial talking heads have gone from saying people shouldn't buy precious metals to becoming frantic in their advice to sell any you might have.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102026458

This usually means that investment bankers are acquiring precious metals for an upward run in the next few months.


----------



## watcher

Nevada said:


> I'm not going to argue that China hasn't taken over a lot of our manufacturing, because it obviously has. But China isn't poised to surpass the USA markets. Consider that China's GDP is still only about half that of the USA.
> 
> I also hear arguments that China is acquiring gold, which is also true. Bit much of that acquired gold is being held privately. The Chinese government is also acquiring gold, but they need it to monetize their currency. Again, China has only about half the currency in circulation that we have, yet we have about 8 times more gold. They have a long way to go to catch up.
> 
> I don't see a collapse scenario.


If you don't see the fact that Asia has a vast and growing market base you are blind. There's over 2.5 billion people in China and India alone and both have a standard of living that is growing like crazy.


----------



## Nevada

watcher said:


> If you don't see the fact that Asia has a vast and growing market base you are blind. There's over 2.5 billion people in China and India alone and both have a standard of living that is growing like crazy.


Oh, I see it. I just don't see it as the threat that some seem to.


----------



## Belfrybat

I don't know if it was a foolish move or not, but Provident was offering OPM bars at 59 cents over spot so I grabbed 20 late last evening. Couldn't afford any more this month. And as of this morning, silver has dropped another 6 cents. According to the video Nate posted, the guy was talking about gold being overpriced relative to silver, which led me to think silver is about right. Or am I off track here?


----------



## Nevada

Belfrybat said:


> I don't know if it was a foolish move or not, but Provident was offering OPM bars at 59 cents over spot so I grabbed 20 late last evening.


You're good. OPM is now LMBA approved for silver bullion. I prefer bars with serial numbers, but you won't have a problem with anyone trusting OPM bars.



Belfrybat said:


> According to the video Nate posted, the guy was talking about gold being overpriced relative to silver, which led me to think silver is about right. Or am I off track here?


I suppose gold/silver ratio is one way to look at it, but I still believe that the real price rise will happen when silver supply runs out.


----------



## watcher

Nevada said:


> Oh, I see it. I just don't see it as the threat that some seem to.


The bigger threat is the percentage of the budget we are 'kicking down the road'. At some point we are going to run out of road and no one is going to be willing to lend us money. Can you show me any type of a plan you think has any kind of a chance of being made into law which would pay off the *current *US debt in 30 years? Do you really think the government will stop spending more than its taking in as long as it can borrow?

You talk about all kinds of economic bubbles yet you think the feds can keep spending and spending and spending w/o limit? Only blind fools think this and I know you are not that.


----------



## clovis

I like silver.

I think it could be a great long term investment. Like Nevada said, I think long term should be more than 5 years.

Personally, I like silver coins versus bars, but that is just me.

I do struggle with putting money into silver as a retirement investment. When I look at my other investments, albeit small, I look at the 4% to 6% dividends that keep rolling in. Those stock based investments are a real blessing, IMO, and I am thankful for those returns. I struggle because I don't see silver having a 5% a year growth. 

Now of course, if the stock market or the economy ever totally crashes, I am going to look like the biggest fool that ever walked the earth. 

I just wish that I had enough surplus income to hedge on both silver and stocks. And don't get me wrong...if gold and silver ever bottom out to $500 and $8 respectively, like they did once, I will jump in head first.


----------



## Nevada

clovis said:


> I like silver.
> 
> I think it could be a great long term investment. Like Nevada said, I think long term should be more than 5 years.
> 
> Personally, I like silver coins versus bars, but that is just me.
> 
> I do struggle with putting money into silver as a retirement investment. When I look at my other investments, albeit small, I look at the 4% to 6% dividends that keep rolling in. Those stock based investments are a real blessing, IMO, and I am thankful for those returns. I struggle because I don't see silver having a 5% a year growth.
> 
> Now of course, if the stock market or the economy ever totally crashes, I am going to look like the biggest fool that ever walked the earth.
> 
> I just wish that I had enough surplus income to hedge on both silver and stocks. And don't get me wrong...if gold and silver ever bottom out to $500 and $8 respectively, like they did once, I will jump in head first.


Precious metals have very odd buy-sell indicators. It seems that metal traders make a lot of money off of bandwagon traders. The best time to buy is when financial pundits tell you to see your gold & silver because you don't need any in your portfolio. That's always near the bottom.

Conversely, the best time to sell is when the financial pundits tell you that holding metals is an absolute must. That's always near the top.

Pundits are telling us to sell. 

_"Right now, my best trade is just being short gold," said Hecht, a longtime veteran of the Phillip Brothers trading desk, and the author of "How to Make Money with Commodities." "I think that we're going to go through the $1,185 support which was the low on December 31st of 2013, and I think we're going to head to four-year lows, which will bring gold to around $1,045" per troy ounce._
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102026458

That means they want your gold and silver, and they want it cheap.


----------



## Nevada

watcher said:


> The bigger threat is the percentage of the budget we are 'kicking down the road'. At some point we are going to run out of road and no one is going to be willing to lend us money. Can you show me any type of a plan you think has any kind of a chance of being made into law which would pay off the *current *US debt in 30 years? Do you really think the government will stop spending more than its taking in as long as it can borrow?
> 
> You talk about all kinds of economic bubbles yet you think the feds can keep spending and spending and spending w/o limit? Only blind fools think this and I know you are not that.


The debt situation is not nearly so bleak as you suggest. In terms of actual dollars we are the highest debtor nation, but in terms of % of GDP we are pretty far down the list.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt

It's not a question of when, or even whether, we can pay it off, because that will never happen. It's only a question of whether servicing the debt is sustainable.

When the recession ends we'll inflate our way out of debt. That's how governments deal with debt.


----------



## clovis

Nevada said:


> Precious metals have very odd buy-sell indicators. It seems that metal traders make a lot of money off of bandwagon traders. The best time to buy is when financial pundits tell you to see your gold & silver because you don't need any in your portfolio. That's always near the bottom.
> 
> Conversely, the best time to sell is when the financial pundits tell you that holding metals is an absolute must. That's always near the top.
> 
> Pundits are telling us to sell.
> 
> _"Right now, my best trade is just being short gold," said Hecht, a longtime veteran of the Phillip Brothers trading desk, and the author of "How to Make Money with Commodities." "I think that we're going to go through the $1,185 support which was the low on December 31st of 2013, and I think we're going to head to four-year lows, which will bring gold to around $1,045" per troy ounce._
> http://www.cnbc.com/id/102026458
> 
> That means they want your gold and silver, and they want it cheap.


Very interesting, NV.

I've never really thought of these PM indicators, but when gold was at $2,000, every talking head on TV was saying "Buy Gold!!!!! It is going up, up, up!!!". At the very same time, I was thinking "No way would I ever put my cash into gold at these prices!"

I believe that there is significant manipulation in most markets.

Thanks for sharing. I'll stash this information for future use.


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## PrincessFerf

So my question is... when it comes time to eventually sell your PMs, where do you do it? Coin dealers? Jewelry stores?


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## Nevada

PrincessFerf said:


> So my question is... when it comes time to eventually sell your PMs, where do you do it? Coin dealers? Jewelry stores?


It depends on how much you're selling, how fast you want the money, and how much privacy you want. Most people sell back to the same place they got it from, since they will take your silver back at face value without question. The only problem with selling to an online vendor is that it takes time. You can settle immediately with a local vendor.

Different kinds of shops have different regulations. The word is that pawn shops will issue a 1099 to the IRS for anything over $600, but they settle immediately. Most coin and precious metals vendors won't report a transaction of less than 1,000 ounces of silver. This is a pretty good page on IRS reporting requirements for metals dealers.

http://goldsilver.com/article/irs-1099-gold-reporting-private-gold-private-silver-bullion/

If your silver or gold has collector value above the worth of the metal, you'll want to sell it at eBay. Metals dealers, jewelers and pawn shops are only going to pay you the metal value.

But you shouldn't have a problem selling, whether it be locally or online.


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## DEKE01

Nevada said:


> The debt situation is not nearly so bleak as you suggest. In terms of actual dollars we are the highest debtor nation, but in terms of % of GDP we are pretty far down the list.
> 
> When the recession ends we'll inflate our way out of debt. That's how governments deal with debt.



Finding comfort in the fact that other countries are even more in debt by %GDP than the US is...well...crazy. Both countries are leaping off a cliff, and any pride you feel because they will splatter at the bottom first, is going to last right up until we splatter. 

Inflating the currency works to alleviate gov't debt right up until it doesn't. Going back to the first paper money, two Chinese dynasties ended in due to inflation and one ended in revolution. Studies have shown that high inflation causes poverty, war, famine, civil unrest, revolutions, and gov't collapse. In most cases, the gov't is replaced by a repressive gov't that uses gov't power to enforce a period of poverty in order to bring inflation and civil unrest under control. 

In the 20th century, massive inflation in Germany led to Hitler. You may not remember it, but IIRC, there was a bit of a dustup following that. Post WW2 hyper inflation examples have been painless compared to Germany's because the US (primarily) bailed out the offending country. There is no country that can or will bail out the US. When we go, the whole world will feel the pain. 

Silver and gold will help you if that ever happens, but you can forget about your socialist healthcare and socialist security monthly check.


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## Nevada

DEKE01 said:


> In the 20th century, massive inflation in Germany led to Hitler. You may not remember it, but IIRC, there was a bit of a dustup following that. Post WW2 hyper inflation examples have been painless compared to Germany's because the US (primarily) bailed out the offending country. There is no country that can or will bail out the US. When we go, the whole world will feel the pain.


Hyperinflation is the result of the inability of a country to collect taxes. That's usually the result of war or regime change, where the government can't reorganize quickly enough to avoid currency collapse. I don't see that in our future.


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## DEKE01

PrincessFerf said:


> So my question is... when it comes time to eventually sell your PMs, where do you do it? Coin dealers? Jewelry stores?


If you are trading PMs hoping to profit, then don't do it with physical PMs. Trade the ETFs because they are instantly liquid, have the lowest trading costs, and are least likely to suffer losses due to a corrupt dealer. Not that I am recommending you trade PMs for profit. 

If you are buying PMs as a hedge against TEOTWAWKI type inflation and are right, you will either spend the PMs to live or wait until economic order is restored and hope that the gov't then in power allows some sort of normal redemption. But the possibility exists that your PMs may be confiscated by the new gov't in order to placate the masses who did not prepare. After all, you will then be one of the evil 1%. 

If you are buying PMs as a hedge against the average 2 - 3% inflation we have had since WW2, then you are probably making a mistake as PMs do not have a good record of out performing stock markets. 

If you are buying PMs as a hedge against high but not catastrophic hyper inflation, then you'll want to hold PMs for a very long time, redeeming them only in the sense of passing them to your heirs. 

Don't interpret this as me being negative on PMs. I think they are a good insurance policy, and like my auto insurance, I hope I'll never use it.


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## DEKE01

Nevada said:


> Hyperinflation is the result of the inability of a country to collect taxes. That's usually the result of war or regime change, where the government can't reorganize quickly enough to avoid currency collapse. I don't see that in our future.


Wrong. A gov't unable to collect taxes may collapse or become oppressive or choose to create hyperinflation before it collapses. In rare occasions, the gov't will choose to do the responsible thing and quit spending beyond its means, knowing that it will cause great economic pain on the way to restoring a normal economy. The cause of hyper inflation is gov't creating excessive amounts of currency. 

You'll note that the US has record tax receipts this year. But we also have inflation, depending on who you believe, running somewhere between 2 - 12%.


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## Nevada

DEKE01 said:


> If you are trading PMs hoping to profit, then don't do it with physical PMs. Trade the ETFs because they are instantly liquid, have the lowest trading costs, and are least likely to suffer losses due to a corrupt dealer. Not that I am recommending you trade PMs for profit.
> 
> If you are buying PMs as a hedge against TEOTWAWKI type inflation and are right, you will either spend the PMs to live or wait until economic order is restored and hope that the gov't then in power allows some sort of normal redemption. But the possibility exists that your PMs may be confiscated by the new gov't in order to placate the masses who did not prepare. After all, you will then be one of the evil 1%.
> 
> If you are buying PMs as a hedge against the average 2 - 3% inflation we have had since WW2, then you are probably making a mistake as PMs do not have a good record of out performing stock markets.
> 
> If you are buying PMs as a hedge against high but not catastrophic hyper inflation, then you'll want to hold PMs for a very long time, redeeming them only in the sense of passing them to your heirs.
> 
> Don't interpret this as me being negative on PMs. I think they are a good insurance policy, and like my auto insurance, I hope I'll never use it.


ETFs are good for short-term speculators because there are certain costs associated with taking delivery on metals that are a lot less with ETFs. But there are still broker fees when you trade an ETF.

The main reason to avoid ETFs for a long-term hold is that many investors believe that paper gold and silver are backed by a dangerously small amount of metal. It's been suggested that paper metal certificates are in a bubble as a result. You also have to trust the issuer.

I see the paper market as a different animal from the physical metal market. I think they should have separate trading exchanges. In fact I think they will someday.

I also disagree that if the SHTF that we'll be trading gold & silver metals. People will be more concerned with eating and staying warm. They won't want your silver. If you want something to trade in a SHTF scenario then buy a couple of extra bricks of .22 shells. They'll be in demand for personal protection and small game.


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## DEKE01

Nevada said:


> ETFs are good for short-term speculators because there are certain costs associated with taking delivery on metals that are a lot less with ETFs. But there are still broker fees when you trade an ETF.
> 
> The main reason to avoid ETFs for a long-term hold is that many investors believe that paper gold and silver are backed by a dangerously small amount of metal. It's been suggested that paper metal certificates are in a bubble as a result. You also have to trust the issuer.
> 
> I see the paper market as a different animal from the physical metal market. I think they should have separate trading exchanges. In fact I think they will someday.
> 
> I also disagree that if the SHTF that we'll be trading gold & silver metals. People will be more concerned with eating and staying warm. They won't want your silver. If you want something to trade in a SHTF scenario then buy a couple of extra bricks of .22 shells. They'll be in demand for personal protection and small game.


I agree on the ETFs, I am not recommending them as a wise investment, but as a short term trade, they are better than physical PMs. The broker fees are less than any other public market trading fee for PMs. I can trade 5000 shares of an ETF for about $7.00 last time I checked. 

If history is any indicator, you are wrong about PMs in a post TEOTWAWKI economy. PMs might not be any good in a Mad Max world, but that was a silly movie. They might not be any good in the weeks and months following a major collapse, but they have always been good a few years later. Yes, ammo is good SHTF trade. So is food, salt, sugar, coffee, warm clothing, fuel, etc. PMs have their place, but are not a panacea.


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## watcher

Nevada said:


> The debt situation is not nearly so bleak as you suggest. In terms of actual dollars we are the highest debtor nation, but in terms of % of GDP we are pretty far down the list.
> 
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt
> 
> It's not a question of when, or even whether, we can pay it off, because that will never happen. It's only a question of whether servicing the debt is sustainable.
> 
> When the recession ends we'll inflate our way out of debt. That's how governments deal with debt.


Debt vs GNP doesn't really mean much. What matters is the percentage of the federal budget must be borrowed and the amount of debt already owed. As each of those numbers continue to grow the collapse grows closer. 

Do you really think the government can continue to borrow a larger and larger percentage of the budget forever? The last I checked the percentage of the budget we were borrowing was around 40%. Some time that percentage will reach a level that even the most stupid out there will realize that there's no way we could ever pay back anything more we borrow. Well unless we have a Zimbabwean level of inflation, i.e. 1,000+%/yr.


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## Nevada

watcher said:


> Do you really think the government can continue to borrow a larger and larger percentage of the budget forever?


Borrowing on this level is temporary. It's just how a government deals with a deep recession. But the recession will end eventually.


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## DEKE01

Nevada said:


> Borrowing on this level is temporary. It's just how a government deals with a deep recession. But the recession will end eventually.


That might be true if the gov't ever ran a balanced budget. I think LBJ had the last balanced budget and we've had plenty of expansions and contractions since then. Clinton had a sorta balanced budget, as long as you ignore Socialist Security. 

SOmetimes they speed up the train, sometimes they slow down the train, but they never get off the tracks that lead to the cliff.


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## watcher

Nevada said:


> Borrowing on this level is temporary. It's just how a government deals with a deep recession. But the recession will end eventually.


You really think so? Seems to me the federal government has been spending more than it has been bringing in for quite a while. If you keep borrowing more than you are making at some point you are going to owe more than you can EVER pay back and you are going to have a very difficult, if not impossible, time finding someone to loan you more. 

With the fact the US market is becoming less and less important on the world stage this point is coming quickly.


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## Nevada

The economic pundits are really piling-on today in their advice to stay away from precious metals.

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000312617

If course his argument is solely in relation to gold's inflation hedge value. It ignores other safe haven qualities and supply/demand factors.

I'm in for the long haul (maybe 5 years). I see the price drop as a buying opportunity. On my budget it will take time to acquire as much silver as I would like to be holding, so I just keep stacking.


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## clovis

Nevada,

Just for conversation's sake: Let's say you keep stacking silver at the current price of $17.60 or less.

Let's pretend that silver demand spikes sometime, maybe a year from now, for whatever reason, and silver prices recover greatly with significant gains.

Are you a seller of your silver when the price spikes?

Is there a price point that you would dump a significant portion of your stash?

Moreover, where you do see silver prices in the future, like 20 years from now?


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## countrytime

Nevada said:


> Borrowing on this level is temporary. It's just how a government deals with a deep recession. But the recession will end eventually.


Wow--this is so comical (at least to me).....
We have virtually no industrial complex left in this country--we are a service based economy.
People are underemployed or cant find work that pays the minimum bills.
I live in a nice farming area, but 3 more houses went up for sale on my road-1 of them have been occupied for less than a year.
The main store in my town is Walmart now, where there used to be a LOT of different stores--the mall closed down years ago. 
Staples went out this spring....
This is how many years after the financial fiasco? 6 years? 
Good grief...I'll be dead before the economy "recovers".


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## Nevada

clovis said:


> Nevada,
> 
> Just for conversation's sake: Let's say you keep stacking silver at the current price of $17.60 or less.
> 
> Let's pretend that silver demand spikes sometime, maybe a year from now, for whatever reason, and silver prices recover greatly with significant gains.
> 
> Are you a seller of your silver when the price spikes?
> 
> Is there a price point that you would dump a significant portion of your stash?
> 
> Moreover, where you do see silver prices in the future, like 20 years from now?


Sure, it's entirely possible that factors beyond supply/demand could make silver spike in the next year or two, and that would be an opportunity to multiply holdings. You will know that the price increase not supply/demand because it will go up along with gold. So if I see both silver and gold go up, say to $80, then I would probably sell and buy again at a lower price a few months later.

In the long run, expect silver to go to several hundred dollars per ounce in 5 years. After that silver will find it's place at probably 10% to 20% of gold (it's about 1.5% today). After 5 years you'll see silver being considered the true precious metal that it is.


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## clovis

Thanks for sharing, NV.

So, if you wake up one morning in October, 2015, and for whatever reason, silver has suddenly spiked to $35 an ounce, you are going to hang onto your stack, even the stuff you bought at $17?

I am holding my silver for long term, or if I simply can't pass up a deal and have to have the cash, like on a house or something. (It won't happen in a million years, but if I ever stumble upon the deal of the century, like a $300,000 house for $68,000, the silver is on the table for a deal like that.) Otherwise, I think I am in for the long haul...but I do think it is going to take a while for silver to hit $80.


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## Nevada

clovis said:


> Thanks for sharing, NV.
> 
> So, if you wake up one morning in October, 2015, and for whatever reason, silver has suddenly spiked to $35 an ounce, you are going to hang onto your stack, even the stuff you bought at $17?


Probably not $35, but if it goes to $80 or $100 I'll give serious thought to taking advantage of the spike.


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## michael ark

if you want to see what to do with all your money look at http://www.coinflation.com/
It will put it in terms you can add up.


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## Nevada

michael ark said:


> if you want to see what to do with all your money look at http://www.coinflation.com/
> It will put it in terms you can add up.


I prefer fine silver bar to junk coin. The thought of paying $15 for $1 in old change disturbs me.


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## Evons hubby

Nevada said:


> Borrowing on this level is temporary. It's just how a government deals with a deep recession. But the recession will end eventually.


six years and no end in sight is NOT temporary. I do agree with you on one thing though... the recession will end... right after we get out of the great depression of the thirties. Bear in mind we have never recovered from that one yet.... thanks to borrowing ourselves "rich".


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## Nevada

Yvonne's hubby said:


> six years and no end in sight is NOT temporary. I do agree with you on one thing though... the recession will end... right after we get out of the great depression of the thirties. Bear in mind we have never recovered from that one yet.... thanks to borrowing ourselves "rich".


Of course you & I were both born ten years after the Great Depression ended, so neither of us have any first hand knowledge of what it was like before the depression. I'm sure that the 1920s were very different from the 1950s, but you can never really go back. I expect that the 2020s will be very different from the early 2000s. But we'll be out of the recession by then regardless of what it will look like.

Don't worry, America and the dollar are both going to make it. I doubt that we'll ever see a true gold standard again anyway. There's just not enough gold or silver in existence to do it. I was just reading that the Swiss are voting this November to go back on the gold standard again, requiring the Swiss franc to be backed 20% by gold. That's it, just 20%, and they'll not only call it a victory but they'll call it being back on the gold standard.


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## DEKE01

Nevada said:


> Of course you & I were both born ten years after the Great Depression ended, so neither of us have any first hand knowledge of what it was like before the depression. I'm sure that the 1920s were very different from the 1950s, but you can never really go back. I expect that the 2020s will be very different from the early 2000s. But we'll be out of the recession by then regardless of what it will look like.
> 
> Don't worry, America and the dollar are both going to make it. I doubt that we'll ever see a true gold standard again anyway. There's just not enough gold or silver in existence to do it. I was just reading that the Swiss are voting this November to go back on the gold standard again, requiring the Swiss franc to be backed 20% by gold. That's it, just 20%, and they'll not only call it a victory but they'll call it being back on the gold standard.


You forget history. One thing in common with all former most or near most powerful nations on earth is that they all became former most or near most powerful nations. The UK survived the fall from grace relatively intact, even if it did lose all its colonial possessions. But the empires of Rome, Babylon, Persia, Ottoman, Third Reich, Colonial Spanish, Napoleon, Charlemagne, the Soviets, Atilla, Aztecs, Mayans, Incas, almost all died painful deaths, often in bloody wars, and usually in economic ruin. To assume the US will always be the world's only superpower militarily and economically is folly. Our days are numbered, we just don't if our current economic foolishness is that of an over confident teenager or a senile senior citizen. 

As to there not being enough gold...maybe. If PMs serve as an true inflation hedge, then over the long run it will not matter how many pieces of paper got printed, PMs will retain its intrinsic value.


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## Trainwrek

Nevada said:


> e.
> 
> Don't worry, America and the dollar are both going to make it. I doubt that we'll ever see a true gold standard again anyway. There's just not enough gold or silver in existence to do it.


LOL. I dont know if we'll ever go back to a gold standard, but "not enough gold" has nothing to do with it. Whenever someone says that, it means they have no concept of how a gold standard works.

You could have a gold standard with 1 oz of gold. The price of the gold is the measure of money supply vs. gold supply. You never 'need more gold', if there's less gold that means it's value goes proportionately higher.


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## Nevada

Trainwrek said:


> LOL. I dont know if we'll ever go back to a gold standard, but "not enough gold" has nothing to do with it. Whenever someone says that, it means they have no concept of how a gold standard works.
> 
> You could have a gold standard with 1 oz of gold. The price of the gold is the measure of money supply vs. gold supply. You never 'need more gold', if there's less gold that means it's value goes proportionately higher.


The problem is that both gold & silver have industrial uses that have no substitute. If the price gets too high it will make problems for certain manufacturers.


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## mmoetc

Nevada said:


> The problem is that both gold & silver have industrial uses that have no substitute. If the price gets too high it will make problems for certain manufacturers.


And the problem with assumptions like that are that we don't know what new technology may come along and supplant those uses. Burned any whale oil in your lamps lately?


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## DEKE01

mmoetc said:


> And the problem with assumptions like that are that we don't know what new technology may come along and supplant those uses. Burned any whale oil in your lamps lately?


Exactly. There are alternatives to gold and silver. One example, on printed circuit boards but using the alternatives causes other problems, but at a certain price point for PMs, manufactures will deal with the problems and switch to copper for at least some applications. It might mean that your cell phone had to be larger, but people will accept that if the price spread gets large enough.


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## Nevada

DEKE01 said:


> Exactly. There are alternatives to gold and silver.


Even at $1200/oz for gold, if there was an alternative they would be using it.

We'll never see a real gold standard again.


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## mmoetc

Nevada said:


> Even at $1200/oz for gold, if there was an alternative they would be using it.
> 
> We'll never see a real gold standard again.[/QUOTE
> 
> But would they at $2K or $3K/oz. There's always a point where economics prevail. Look at the oil boom in this country. A lot of those newly franked wells would shut down if oil prices fell enough. Other things might become more affordable in technology if gold and silver rise enough


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## DEKE01

Nevada said:


> Even at $1200/oz for gold, if there was an alternative they would be using it.
> 
> We'll never see a real gold standard again.


At $12,000 or $120,000 or $1,200,000 an oz, there will be alternatives because they already exist today for some uses. Gold is used as a conductor because it is the smallest, least expensive way to go. They use it on space launch vehicles because it is the cheapest, lightest material for the amount of conductivity offered. But they can make bigger fuel tanks when gold gets expensive enough. 

I agree we'll never see a gold standard again...at least short of a SHTF scenario. Politicians have nothing to gain by going back to gold. It would cause short term pain for the longer term gain and pols won't risk their career for the betterment of the country. 

What you don't know is what will happen after the SHTF.


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## michael ark

Nevada said:


> I prefer fine silver bar to junk coin. The thought of paying $15 for $1 in old change disturbs me.


I was just showing their are other ways that you can save resources and we as a country have gone mad none of our money has face value in even your silver and gold .It can't keep you warm. You can't eat it .Why do we put such value on a hunk of metal or shiney things.The best things in life aren't things.If another disaster happens like katrina people will still be begging for water.When things are bad it's the 4 B's bullets ,bean beer & batteries.:buds:


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## Nevada

DEKE01 said:


> Politicians have nothing to gain by going back to gold. It would cause short term pain for the longer term gain and pols won't risk their career for the betterment of the country.


Politicians will fight a gold standard because they won't be able to print money at will any longer.


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## DEKE01

michael ark said:


> I was just showing their are other ways that you can save resources and we as a country have gone mad none of our money has face value in even your silver and gold .It can't keep you warm. You can't eat it .Why do we put such value on a hunk of metal or shiney things.The best things in life aren't things.If another disaster happens like katrina people will still be begging for water.When things are bad it's the 4 B's bullets ,bean beer & batteries.:buds:


The 4 Bs are great for a lot of different SHTF scenarios, maybe all of them. But PMs are good for several scenarios as well, like another world wide great depression like the 1930s. Since we can only guess what the world will be like in 5, 10, or 20 years, it makes sense to me to prepare for multiple SHTF scenarios.


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## Nevada

DEKE01 said:


> But PMs are good for several scenarios as well, like another world wide great depression like the 1930s.


The great depression was a deflationary depression, where cash was king. You didn't need to hold gold or silver in the 1930s to do well. In fact it didn't matter, since US currency was tied to gold & silver. All you needed to have during the 1930s to be wealthy was good old US dollars.


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## DEKE01

Nevada said:


> The great depression was a deflationary depression, where cash was king. You didn't need to hold gold or silver in the 1930s to do well. In fact it didn't matter, since US currency was tied to gold & silver. All you needed to have during the 1930s to be wealthy was good old US dollars.


OK, perhaps a bad example. Although, my G-ma had saved all her nursing school tuition but it disappeared in a bank failure forcing her to start over. Had she kept some funds out of the bank in an easily stored value preserve, like gold, she would have fared better. 

How about an Argentine or Wiemar Republic run away inflationary example?


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## Nevada

DEKE01 said:


> OK, perhaps a bad example. Although, my G-ma had saved all her nursing school tuition but it disappeared in a bank failure forcing her to start over. Had she kept some funds out of the bank in an easily stored value preserve, like gold, she would have fared better.
> 
> How about an Argentine or Wiemar Republic run away inflationary example?


I don't buy silver as a safe haven hedge. I have that added benefit just in case, but it's not the reason I do it. I do it because I think the silver supply will have a crisis in the next 5 years.

While nobody can ever be sure, I don't believe that government collapse, regime change, dollar collapse, or hyperinflation are in the foreseeable future (i.e., the next decade or so).


----------



## Evons hubby

Nevada said:


> I don't buy silver as a safe haven hedge. I have that added benefit just in case, but it's not the reason I do it. I do it because I think the silver supply will have a crisis in the next 5 years.
> 
> While nobody can ever be sure, I don't believe that government collapse, *regime change*, dollar collapse, or hyperinflation are in the foreseeable future (i.e., the next decade or so).


So you dont see Obama seceding the throne in a couple of years? I recall you said the same thing about Bush several years back.


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## Nevada

Yvonne's hubby said:


> So you dont see Obama seceding the throne in a couple of years? I recall you said the same thing about Bush several years back.


Obama has no compelling motivation to stay, while Bush & Cheney had a number of war crimes allegations floating around. The allegations were serious enough that I didn't see an alternative to staying, particularly since Obama promised war crimes investigations if he was elected. I don't know what changed, but Obama backed down from doing any investigations.


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## DEKE01

Nevada said:


> I don't buy silver as a safe haven hedge. I have that added benefit just in case, but it's not the reason I do it. I do it because I think the silver supply will have a crisis in the next 5 years.
> 
> While nobody can ever be sure, I don't believe that government collapse, regime change, dollar collapse, or hyperinflation are in the foreseeable future (i.e., the next decade or so).


And how many predicted 1929 in 1919? 

Did you predict 2007 - 2009 in 1997? How about in 2002? In 2006?


----------



## DEKE01

Nevada said:


> Obama has no compelling motivation to stay, while Bush & Cheney had a number of war crimes allegations floating around. The allegations were serious enough that I didn't see an alternative to staying, particularly since Obama promised war crimes investigations if he was elected. I don't know what changed, but Obama backed down from doing any investigations.


Are you saying Obama lied? Surely there's been no hint that Obama on the campaign trail said things just to get votes!


----------



## Nevada

DEKE01 said:


> And how many predicted 1929 in 1919?
> 
> Did you predict 2007 - 2009 in 1997? How about in 2002? In 2006?


We weren't in track for a mortgage crisis in 1997. We were on the wrong track in 2002 but it wasn't self-evident. By 2006 I was in my depression shelter in northern Nevada.

Bubbles happen fast. We can see openings where people can abuse existing regulations and create a bubble, but there's no way to know that they'll actually do it until it starts.

For the record, my great grandfather became a millionaire twice over during the great depression. You never know when an opportunity might present itself.


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## Trainwrek

Nevada said:


> The great depression was a deflationary depression, where cash was king. You didn't need to hold gold or silver in the 1930s to do well. In fact it didn't matter, since US currency was tied to gold & silver. All you needed to have during the 1930s to be wealthy was good old US dollars.


This is true. I wonder now, with QE ending and interest rates getting ready to rise, whether we might indeed get deflation despite everything the Fed and government have done to create inflation.

The fact is, the economy is so terribly broken, that even printing trillions of dollars and holding interest rates at near zero for 6 years straight actually only produced some inflation ( and only in very specific areas of the economy ). Prices for homes have remained more or less steady, with the exception of homes in the upper price range ( the recipients of the newly printed up money ) . The extreme inflationary policies of the past 8 years simply did not have the desired effect of pushing overall prices upward.

Now the Fed is tightening. They have alot of questionable paper on their balance sheet and they want to reverse course. Interest rates will not remain low without QE. They know the real demand for US debt will not support it.

With the taper and tough talk about interest rates going up, we see the dollar is strengthening. Gold is dropping ( in dollar terms as the dollar rises ). I'm starting to think we might actually see a little deflation in the near future. The force of all the unemployed and underemployed, all people with stagnant wages, the lack of manufacturing, and the lack of productive employment, these are all deflationary forces. And who knows? We might just be seeing the beginning of the correction that they have been running from for 6 years.


----------



## DEKE01

Nevada said:


> We weren't in track for a mortgage crisis in 1997. We were on the wrong track in 2002 but it wasn't self-evident. By 2006 I was in my depression shelter in northern Nevada.
> 
> Bubbles happen fast. We can see openings where people can abuse existing regulations and create a bubble, but there's no way to know that they'll actually do it until it starts.
> 
> For the record, my great grandfather became a millionaire twice over during the great depression. You never know when an opportunity might present itself.


Yeah, yeah, yeah. You just admitted that when you confidently predicted no major problems within the next decade, you can't see far enough ahead to know what, when, where, you'll drive over the next cliff.


----------



## Nevada

DEKE01 said:


> Yeah, yeah, yeah. You just admitted that when you confidently predicted no major problems within the next decade, you can't see far enough ahead to know what, when, where, you'll drive over the next cliff.


I don't think there's enough steam in the economy for a serious bubble, but we do have some corrections in our future.

1. The stock market will have a moderate to severe correction. People are in the market because the Fed is propping it up. They're willing to go along for the ride, but when QE ends they're gone. Watch out when that happens.

2. Real estate has gone up too fast in some areas, so expect a minor correction.


----------



## DEKE01

Nevada said:


> I don't think there's enough steam in the economy for a serious bubble, but we do have some corrections in our future.
> 
> 1. The stock market will have a moderate to severe correction. People are in the market because the Fed is propping it up. They're willing to go along for the ride, but when QE ends they're gone. Watch out when that happens.
> 
> 2. Real estate has gone up too fast in some areas, so expect a minor correction.


In response to my comment where I show that you unwittingly admitted you can not predict markets, you make more market predictions. :spinsmiley: 

I'm not saying you're wrong or right, there will undoubtedly be more corrections and expansions and bubbles and bursting bubbles. Anyone who makes those predictions is just using more words to say the markets will go up and down except for when they are going sideways. Without an accurate timeline, the predictions are almost meaningless.


----------



## Nevada

Silver is testing $17.00 right now.

http://silverprice.org/


----------



## elkhound

dive baby dive....lol


----------



## Nevada

elkhound said:


> dive baby dive....lol


I feel the same way. This is a buying opportunity, so I'm taking advantage of it. I would be good for the slump to continue for a few years. As long as the price remains under $25 or so I'll keep buying. When I'm holding a few hundred ounces I'll just wait for the silver shortage.


----------



## elkhound

i like 10-12.....but if drops real fast i think holding for under 10 might be part of plan...what says Nevada?


----------



## Michael W. Smith

Nevada said:


> 1. The stock market will have a moderate to severe correction. People are in the market because the Fed is propping it up. They're willing to go along for the ride, but when QE ends they're gone.


Am I understanding you correctly then, that you have no stocks. Your only investment is in silver?


----------



## Nevada

elkhound said:


> i like 10-12.....but if drops real fast i think holding for under 10 might be part of plan...what says Nevada?


I don't know if silver can get down to the $10 to $12 level. Silver production costs are a lot higher than they used to be. I read that silver mining production will start reacting to low prices at around $17, so we might be near the practical bottom right now. We'll see...


----------



## Nevada

Michael W. Smith said:


> Am I understanding you correctly then, that you have no stocks. Your only investment is in silver?


No stock. Just silver and real estate.


----------



## elkhound

Nevada said:


> I don't know if silver can get down to the $10 to $12 level. Silver production costs are a lot higher than they used to be. I read that silver mining production will start reacting to low prices at around $17, so we might be near the practical bottom right now. We'll see...



yea i been reading about tons of dirt vs. return, we are in less rich areas too....if fuel goes down this should help with that cost per ton processing...but i aint holding my breath.


----------



## Michael W. Smith

Nevada said:


> No stock. Just silver and real estate.


Isn't that kind of risky in and of itself? I've always been told diversity is the key.

If you need money in a hurry, real estate isn't easy to get out of. I guess your silver you could sell for some quick cash though.

My Great Uncle and Aunt weren't much of investors - she worked for the bank, so kept all of their nest egg in CD's and interest bearing accounts. It worked good when we had double digit interest rates. The last they mentioned about it, things weren't going so good - they aren't keeping up with higher prices and getting next to nothing in interest rates. They didn't have kids, and both worked full time, so I don't think they are going to go hungry, but I imagine since they are in their 80's now, their nice nest egg that they once had isn't so "golden" anymore.


----------



## Belfrybat

JM Bullion is having a sale on horse privy silver Britannias at only $1.49 over spot. This put it down to the same price as OPM or Sunshine Mint bars or rounds. Since I'm English, and spot was $17.16, I couldn't resist and purchased some. I'm hoping since this is legal tender and has the horse imprint, that the price might increase in a few years above the actual silver price. But even if it doesn't, I feel it is still a bargain. Now I must stop buying silver -- I've already spent October's silver allowance, and it isn't October yet.


----------



## Nevada

Trainwrek said:


> I wonder now, with QE ending and interest rates getting ready to rise, whether we might indeed get deflation despite everything the Fed and government have done to create inflation.


Judging by conditions I don't believe that the Fed will end QE or raise interest rates. QE and non-existent interest rates are all that holding the economy together right now. If the Fed tries ending QE any time soon I think you'll see it back in a month or two.


----------



## Trainwrek

Nevada said:


> Judging by conditions I don't believe that the Fed will end QE or raise interest rates. QE and non-existent interest rates are all that holding the economy together right now. If the Fed tries ending QE I think you'll see it back in a month or two.


Will be interesting to see. I believe they will end QE, but might kick it up again when things drop off. I think interest rates will tick up no matter what they do as they are having trouble pulling in foreign investment in treasuries.

When the interest rates rise we'll see a drop in stocks as the stock market is the chief beneficiary of these low interest rates. Corporate buy backs are at a high, and investors in search of a return on their money are being forced into equities. The P/E ratios are not in line with stock prices, this bubble is all phony and it will never withstand a significant interest rate hike. Yet I don't think the government can continue to borrow at these low rates, the demand just isnt there. Wish I had a crystal ball, Id make millions.


----------



## Evons hubby

Trainwrek said:


> Wish I had a crystal ball, Id make millions.


And be hated by everyone, taxed out of your socks, lay awake at night worrying about who is getting ready to rob you, wishing you were just a regular guy again. Being wealthy has its own burdens.


----------



## Nevada

Silver is up about 40 cents today.

http://silverprice.org/

I'm feeling a lot better about buying silver yesterday.


----------



## InvalidID

Nevada said:


> Silver is up about 40 cents today.
> 
> http://silverprice.org/
> 
> I'm feeling a lot better about buying silver yesterday.


 Don't fight the trend my friend... Trend is down for a little while longer. You can get some short term gains with day trading style buys, but until it gets somewhere closer to 15.35 it's trending down... 

If it goes below (and stays there) that line I'm not sure where the next stop is.


----------



## Nevada

InvalidID said:


> Don't fight the trend my friend... Trend is down for a little while longer. You can get some short term gains with day trading style buys, but until it gets somewhere closer to 15.35 it's trending down...
> 
> If it goes below (and stays there) that line I'm not sure where the next stop is.


I don't fight the trend because I just buy silver when I have a little money available. As long as I see silver as a bargain I'll keep buying, regardless of whether it goes up or down. As long as I can get silver for under $25 I consider it to be a screaming bargain.


----------



## BlackFeather

Jim Wille has some interesting things to say,

http://investmentwatchblog.com/jim-...lver-they-are-going-to-double-the-gold-price/


----------



## plowjockey

Nevada said:


> I don't think there's enough steam in the economy for a serious bubble, but we do have some corrections in our future.
> 
> 1. The stock market will have a moderate to severe correction. People are in the market because the Fed is propping it up. They're willing to go along for the ride, but when QE ends they're gone. Watch out when that happens.
> 
> 2. Real estate has gone up too fast in some areas, so expect a minor correction.


So what? 

Gains, even short term have been huge in the stock market, whereas silver has done basically nothing for decades. Mortgage money is again pretty easy, some people are again flipping houses.

Isn't investing supposed about taking risk for rewards?

Put money in wall street, the market goes up, sell some and buy a pickup truck, with the proceeds.

What's not real about that? 

the market is going to survive the end of QE, just fine, IMO. It will probably drop at first, just so the scardy-cats will bail out, at a loss, as they always do.


----------



## Nevada

plowjockey said:


> It will probably drop at first, just so the scardy-cats will bail out, at a loss, as they always do.


Well, something's got Wall Street spooked for sure this week. If the Fed doesn't say something to calm them down the market could lose big.


----------



## plowjockey

Nevada said:


> Well, something's got Wall Street spooked for sure this week. If the Fed doesn't say something to calm them down the market could lose big.


Maybe its the same-old-same old - time to scare the scardy-cats and take some awesome profits. 

It's not like it has not happened a million times before.



> But slowdowns don't necessarily mean bear markets, says Alan Skrainka, chief investment officer at Cornerstone Wealth Management.
> 
> 
> "The sell-off is being fueled by fears that the global economy is slowing down. Europe is barely growing, and China has slowed down considerably," says Skrainka.
> 
> 
> Suki Mann, a strategist at UBS, also cautions not to blow global growth fears out of proportion.


http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2014/10/10/stocks-friday/17022819/

One thing about Wall Streets is absolutely certain..

Nobody ever sells a stock, without a willing buyer, to buy it. There is a reason for that.


----------



## Wild_Bill

Wow 2008 was just a few years ago! Everyone forgot already? The stock market was in a bubble as was housing. 2014 we are back at it again. Everyone here should know what the USDA is. Why are they financing houses at 100% instead of grading beef? Why is the stock market near all time highs in a crappy economy? Government created bubbles! I sold my last house to a couple that went USDA. They put nothing down. Our house was bought as a foreclosure after the last bubble. Looking at that house a year later I would say I have about a 75% chance of buying it at foreclosure again. 

PM's are being manipulated down to keep these bubbles from popping. Most people ask the same thing. Where else can I put my money? Nowhere! The government has taken care of that. 

Silver is a smaller market then gold, and thus easier to manipulate. TPTB call up one of the to big to fail banks that they prop up (the quiet way to nationalize banks) Lets call that bank oh I don't know JP Morgan just for fun, and tell them to short some silver contracts. Thats what they do. Silver goes down which brings down gold as well.

That is just an overview of what the tin foil hat crowd (me) sees going on.

The hard facts are even at a 40-1 conversion ratio silver to gold silver is very cheap, and based on history as it relates to gold should be trading around $30.

At or near $15 a lot of silver mines will stop mining. Some of the less efficient mines have already laid workers off, or shut down. Demand even in a slow economy will catch up to supply. 

I have been buying silver for years. From $5- $40 and back again. Mostly a little at a time with pocket money that I would have spent on something else.


----------



## Trainwrek

Yvonne's hubby said:


> And be hated by everyone, taxed out of your socks, lay awake at night worrying about who is getting ready to rob you, wishing you were just a regular guy again. Being wealthy has its own burdens.


haha, yeah sure. Thats what we'll keep telling ourselves :whistlin:


----------



## plowjockey

Wild_Bill said:


> Wow 2008 was just a few years ago! Everyone forgot already? The stock market was in a bubble as was housing. 2014 we are back at it again. Everyone here should know what the USDA is. Why are they financing houses at 100% instead of grading beef? Why is the stock market near all time highs in a crappy economy? Government created bubbles! I sold my last house to a couple that went USDA. They put nothing down. Our house was bought as a foreclosure after the last bubble. Looking at that house a year later I would say I have about a 75% chance of buying it at foreclosure again.
> 
> PM's are being manipulated down to keep these bubbles from popping. Most people ask the same thing. Where else can I put my money? Nowhere! The government has taken care of that.
> 
> Silver is a smaller market then gold, and thus easier to manipulate. TPTB call up one of the to big to fail banks that they prop up (the quiet way to nationalize banks) Lets call that bank oh I don't know JP Morgan just for fun, and tell them to short some silver contracts. Thats what they do. Silver goes down which brings down gold as well.
> 
> That is just an overview of what the tin foil hat crowd (me) sees going on.
> 
> The hard facts are even at a 40-1 conversion ratio silver to gold silver is very cheap, and based on history as it relates to gold should be trading around $30.
> 
> At or near $15 a lot of silver mines will stop mining. Some of the less efficient mines have already laid workers off, or shut down. Demand even in a slow economy will catch up to supply.
> 
> I have been buying silver for years. From $5- $40 and back again. Mostly a little at a time with pocket money that I would have spent on something else.


No one forgot.

It's taking advantage of opportunities, even if they are artificial. Some will win at it, some won't. 

The truth is the "health" of our economy is now based on borrowing and buying. The Fed knows it. We know it. Nothing wrong with a 100% mortgage, if someone has a job and can make the payments.

The QE money is what is driving the recovery. Sure the stock market is up, but so are home and cars sales as well as new business loans.

If "plan B" is a better plan, everyone is still waiting to hear what it is.


----------



## Evons hubby

Trainwrek said:


> haha, yeah sure. Thats what we'll keep telling ourselves :whistlin:


I was quite serious.... I have never been so unfortunate as to have lots of money to worry about.... but I am acquainted with several who do, and they spend all their waking hours dealing with its headaches and problems. There is a lot of truth to the old saying "money cant buy you happiness". About all it can buy you is nicer surroundings to be miserable in.


----------



## plowjockey

Yvonne's hubby said:


> I was quite serious.... I have never been so unfortunate as to have lots of money to worry about.... but I am acquainted with several who do, and they spend all their waking hours dealing with its headaches and problems. There is a lot of truth to the old saying "money cant buy you happiness". About all it can buy you is nicer surroundings to be miserable in.


Maybe the people living off welfare, know something that we don't. Less is more. 

Personally, the wealthy people I know, always appear to be quite tan, enjoy their nice homes and cars and have never professed to have less money.

A friend who owned a plumbing business, complained about employees, taxes and his phone ringing off the hook 24/7. Sold the business for a good profit and retired at age 50.

Being broke is pretty easy, wealthy takes a lot more work and certainly more headaces.

Good for us, that some are willing to do it.


----------



## cedarvalley

plowjockey said:


> The truth is the "health" of our economy is now based on borrowing and buying. The Fed knows it. We know it. Nothing wrong with a 100% mortgage, if someone has a job and can make the payments.


This is the practice that got us into the housing bubble in the first place. Money was loaned at 100% to 125% on the thought, that property values would rise fast enough to outpace the poorly leveraged value. HAHAHA! We all know how that turned out! 
An economy based on borrowing and buying, is not a sustainable one.


----------



## Nevada

cedarvalley said:


> This is the practice that got us into the housing bubble in the first place. Money was loaned at 100% to 125% on the thought, that property values would rise fast enough to outpace the poorly leveraged value. HAHAHA! We all know how that turned out!
> An economy based on borrowing and buying, is not a sustainable one.


You really think people should wait until they can pay cash for a home before buying? The same for cars?

A lot of our economy depends on borrowing. It's been that way my entire life. There's nothing fundamentally wrong with that.


----------



## DEKE01

Nevada said:


> You really think people should wait until they can pay cash for a home before buying? The same for cars?


It worked for me. I had to wait 7 years but having done so, I now live much better saving thousands of dollars a year in interest.


----------



## cedarvalley

Nevada said:


> You really think people should wait until they can pay cash for a home before buying? The same for cars?
> 
> A lot of our economy depends on borrowing. It's been that way my entire life. There's nothing fundamentally wrong with that.


 Nothing wrong with borrowing, but, the borrower should have at least 20% down. My father was a banking lender for over 35 years, and he said when the fast paced lending of 100% of value or above on property was going on,that there would be a blow back. Boy, was he right!


----------



## Nevada

cedarvalley said:


> Nothing wrong with borrowing, but, the borrower should have at least 20% down. My father was a banking lender for over 35 years, and he said when the fast paced lending of 100% of value or above on property was going on,that there would be a blow back. Boy, was he right!


You seem to be backpedaling...

If I understand you correctly, borrowing is ok as long as we regulate lenders properly.


----------



## cedarvalley

Nevada said:


> You seem to be backpedaling...
> 
> So borrowing is ok as long as we regulate lenders properly.


Just how am I backpedaling, I never said borrowing at all was wrong. You need to go back and re-read my post. It was about being over extended (borrower) or under leveraged (creditor).:facepalm:


----------



## Nevada

cedarvalley said:


> Just how am I backpedaling, I never said borrowing at all was wrong. You need to go back and re-read my post. It was about being over extended (borrower) or under leveraged (creditor).:facepalm:


You said:

_An economy based on borrowing and buying, is not a sustainable one._

You didn't qualify that at all. I assumed that you have a problem with the idea of borrowing.


----------



## cedarvalley

Nevada said:


> You said:
> 
> _An economy based on borrowing and buying, is not a sustainable one._
> 
> You didn't qualify that at all. I assumed that you have a problem with the idea of borrowing.


 I guess I should of worded it a little better, should of said an economy based on borrowing and buying, like we had during the pre-recession years. Its simply not sustainable, as we all found out.


----------



## cedarvalley

I also should add that a consumer driven economy relies on constant growth. The planet and its people only have a finite amount of resources, when those become in short suppley or all used up. Where does growth come from?


----------



## Oxankle

Nevada: J&M is asking about $3 over spot for silver. Are there not reputable dealers who will sell for less? That is a pretty high premium. I don't think I ever paid that much, but I've not bought any silver in 20 years.
Ox


----------



## arabian knight

DEKE01 said:


> It worked for me. I had to wait 7 years but having done so, I now live much better saving thousands of dollars a year in interest.


Not only saving for a time to buy a house those that did this back in th elate 90's and early 2000s should have NEVER ever owned a house. the great majority of those should have been Renting NOW look at what that great majority caused in the mid to later 2000s, crashed the dern thing. 50 to 70% of those that bought and then foreclosed because of those loose lending ways that were put in place in the 90s by you know who, should have never owned a house OR Stayed in place they already had. That not only would have been the responsible thing to do, but also would have cause the hit on the economy to be slowed at a much slower rate that we may not even have noticed such a down turn.


----------



## Nevada

Oxankle said:


> Nevada: J&M is asking about $3 over spot for silver. Are there not reputable dealers who will sell for less? That is a pretty high premium. I don't think I ever paid that much, but I've not bought any silver in 20 years.
> Ox


You can try goldmart.com. They sell JM bars for $1.15 over spot, plus shipping and credit card processing fee. I used to buy quantities of more than 10 ounces from goldmart.com because I could save $1 per ounce or so. One time I ordered JM bars and the sent me Golden State Mint bars. If you always place your orders over the phone (rather than internet) and insist on JM bars you won't have that problem.

The best you can really hope for is about $2 over spot, including shipping and processing fees. Understand that there are always certain costs associated with taking delivery, and spot is based on paper trading.

If I was making a large order of silver I would order it by phone from goldmart.com and pay by mailing a cashiers check. That's going to give you the best price.


----------



## Nevada

arabian knight said:


> 50 to 70% of those that bought and then foreclosed because of those loose lending ways that were put in place in the 90s by you know who


Are you saying that derivative securities were regulated before the 1990s? I don't think so.

The change in the banking system is largely the culprit. In the old days the so-called 'partner banks' largely loaned their own and depositor money. That meant that a lot of regulation we need today wasn't necessary, since bank owners would never have made liars loans or gambled with bank funds back then.

Today banks are owned by corporations so bank management isn't lending their own money. The money loaned by commercial banks is borrowed at wholesale rates from the Fed. Since it's not really their money the game has changed from being conservative with the bank owner's money to an incentive to maximize profits with borrowed funds. That means that bank executives will gamble in ways that create systemic risk.

To this day, we still don't have adequate regulation for the new banking system.


----------



## cedarvalley

Nevada said:


> Are you saying that derivative securities were regulated before the 1990s? I don't think so.
> 
> The change in the banking system is largely the culprit. In the old days the so-called 'partner banks' largely loaned their own and depositor money. That meant that a lot of regulation we need today wasn't necessary, since bank owners would never have made liars loans or gambled with bank funds back then.
> 
> Today banks are owned by corporations so bank management isn't lending their own money. The money loaned by commercial banks is borrowed at wholesale rates from the Fed. Since it's not really their money the game has changed from being conservative with the bank owner's money to an incentive to maximize profits with borrowed funds. That means that bank executives will gamble in ways that create systemic risk.
> 
> To this day, we still don't have adequate regulation for the new banking system.


 I agree, that was a very good analogy of the current system.


----------



## Oxankle

Thanks, Nevada. I notice that there is an outfit in Texas that sells J & M and ships free, plus a 4% discount for check. JM bullion.


----------



## Nevada

Oxankle said:


> Thanks, Nevada. I notice that there is an outfit in Texas that sells J & M and ships free, plus a 4% discount for check. JM bullion.


Oh, jmbullion.com? That's where I usually get small (5 to 10 oz) orders from.


----------



## Oxankle

Nevada; I've run a comparison; On 100 oz of silver Goldmart will charge only $9 for shipping, and a cash price avoids a 3% handling fee. (I think JM does charge 4% for handling credit cards). 

I think you are right; Goldmart seems to be the cheaper dealer.

Now; if everything goes to hell and we need silver for barter and survival, what is to keep the government from calling in silver as they did gold? 

Seems to me that silver is only an investment against inflation, but more or less useless in as SHTF situation unless we can go underground.


----------



## Nevada

Oxankle said:


> Now; if everything goes to hell and we need silver for barter and survival, what is to keep the government from calling in silver as they did gold?


I doubt that either gold or silver will be called-in by the government. FDR did it because he needed it to expand the currency supply, but that's only necessary on the gold standard. We'll never see the gold standard again.

Silver won't be called because so much of it is used industrially. Only a small amount of gold is used industrially.



Oxankle said:


> Seems to me that silver is only an investment against inflation, but more or less useless in as SHTF situation unless we can go underground.


I buy silver because I see a supply crisis in the next 5 years.


----------



## Oxankle

Nevada; I tend to agree that the industrial use of silver will pull up the price. However, as the price goes up, so goes the incentive to pull silver (and gold) out of the enormous stocks of jewelry in India and China. We've already seen people here in the US selling Grandma's silver service--it is worth money and does not fit the lifestyle.

I think that this tendency to convert baubles and bangels to cash will slow down the silver spike. But what do I know- I'm not rich. Nevertheless, I think it is time to own a little more silver.


----------



## Nevada

Oxankle said:


> Nevada; I tend to agree that the industrial use of silver will pull up the price. However, as the price goes up, so goes the incentive to pull silver (and gold) out of the enormous stocks of jewelry in India and China. We've already seen people here in the US selling Grandma's silver service--it is worth money and does not fit the lifestyle.
> 
> I think that this tendency to convert baubles and bangels to cash will slow down the silver spike. But what do I know- I'm not rich. Nevertheless, I think it is time to own a little more silver.


Sure, there will be a time while it settles out. People will cash in their silverware and silver reclamation efforts will become more aggressive. But when the dust settles I expect silver to be several hundred dollars per ounce.


----------



## Roadking

Nevada said:


> Sure, there will be a time while it settles out. People will cash in their silverware and silver reclamation efforts will become more aggressive. But when the dust settles* I expect silver to be several hundred dollars per ounce*.


I'd like to see that, but truly doubtful in my or our kids' lifetime. Tops would be $50 IMHO.
I'd like to be proven wrong 'tho.

Matt


----------



## Evons hubby

Nevada said:


> Sure, there will be a time while it settles out. People will cash in their silverware and silver reclamation efforts will become more aggressive. But when the dust settles I expect silver to be several hundred dollars per ounce.


yep, and that several hundred dollars you get from an ounce of silver will most likely buy you two big macs.... might even get you some fries.


----------



## plowjockey

cedarvalley said:


> This is the practice that got us into the housing bubble in the first place. Money was loaned at 100% to 125% on the thought, that property values would rise fast enough to outpace the poorly leveraged value. HAHAHA! We all know how that turned out!
> An economy based on borrowing and buying, is not a sustainable one.


We have had housing bubbles, in form or another, for the last 80 years.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_United_States_housing_bubble

there will be more.

An economy based on saving is not sustainable either.


----------



## Nevada

Yvonne's hubby said:


> yep, and that several hundred dollars you get from an ounce of silver will most likely buy you two big macs.... might even get you some fries.


I don't see hyperinflation on the horizon. I expect to see inflation to dwarf the national debt, perhaps inflation rates as high as 10% per year, but not hyperinflation.

Inflation will be play only a small part in the rise in silver price over the next 5 years.


----------



## Wild_Bill

Oil down huge today! This will continue to bring commodities down. If silver breaks through the 17ish floor 15 will come quick. That's where I will make a large purchase.


----------



## Oxankle

Nevada; You are next door to Goldmart, I'm 1500 miles away. I made a small purchase yesterday and had the credit union send them a check---I was pretty much disgusted to find that the credit union projected a seven-day out delivery of the check. Bank wires are expensive, and even a 3% credit card levy is more than I'm willing to pay. 

If the check takes a week to reach GM, and they ship two days later my transaction will take almost two weeks to complete. -I really do not expect the US mail to be so slow, but it can be. 

How do you (or anyone reading this) manage this problem? 

Further, I read GM's terms of acceptance. Pretty much one-sided. Any comment there?


----------



## Nevada

Oxankle said:


> Nevada; You are next door to Goldmart, I'm 1500 miles away. I made a small purchase yesterday and had the credit union send them a check---I was pretty much disgusted to find that the credit union projected a seven-day out delivery of the check. Bank wires are expensive, and even a 3% credit card levy is more than I'm willing to pay.
> 
> If the check takes a week to reach GM, and they ship two days later my transaction will take almost two weeks to complete. -I really do not expect the US mail to be so slow, but it can be.
> 
> How do you (or anyone reading this) manage this problem?
> 
> Further, I read GM's terms of acceptance. Pretty much one-sided. Any comment there?


I've always used a credit card, since my largest purchase was only 20 ounces (~$450). If I was going to pay by check I would get a cashiers check and mail it myself. If I didn't live so close I would consider mailing the check by Priority Mail.


----------



## Nevada

With the stock market in free-fall, I expect the Fed to announce that QE will resume at a higher rate.


----------



## Oxankle

Nevada; We will be dealing with a half dozen issues. First a comment about buying with a credit card; even 3% costs you a half dollar an ounce for your buy. 

More QE just validates your (and my own) expectation of erasing the national debt thru inflation.

Now we have to deal, also, with the unprecedented expenses of the Ebola fight. The possible consequences are massive institutional bankruptcies, disruption of travel and trade, even food shortages. It is quite possibly a SHTF situation if they do not trace and quarantine carriers fast--and stop importing more.

Heard anything more about the Mexican case?


----------



## Nevada

Oxankle said:


> Nevada; We will be dealing with a half dozen issues. First a comment about buying with a credit card; even 3% costs you a half dollar an ounce for your buy.


I don't mind when the buy is small. I order 5 ounces (about $100 worth) from time to time. It's worth the convenience of not fooling with a cashier's check when it's only a couple of dollars.


----------



## Nevada

Nevada said:


> With the stock market in free-fall, I expect the Fed to announce that QE will resume at a higher rate.


OK, here you go.

_St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard told Bloomberg Television the U.S. central bank may want to keep up its bond buying stimulus for now given a drop in inflation expectations._
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014...C820141016?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews

The Fed just saying they would resume QE was enough to calm the stock market.


----------



## InvalidID

Nevada said:


> OK, here you go.
> 
> _St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard told Bloomberg Television the U.S. central bank may want to keep up its bond buying stimulus for now given a drop in inflation expectations._
> http://www.reuters.com/article/2014...C820141016?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews
> 
> The Fed just saying they would resume QE was enough to calm the stock market.


 In reality it depends more on what happens in China and Europe. If Europe takes a dump we kinda have no choice but to maintain QE for a while.


----------



## Nevada

InvalidID said:


> In reality it depends more on what happens in China and Europe. If Europe takes a dump we kinda have no choice but to maintain QE for a while.


It doesn't matter what happens anywhere, QE won't end and Fed interest rates will not rise. You can count on it.


----------



## InvalidID

Nevada said:


> It doesn't matter what happens anywhere, QE won't end and Fed interest rates will not rise. Y0u can count on it.


 I really don't believe that. Rates will rise after China is no longer a threat and the price of global commodities smooth out. Gotta see some growth before you raise rates. The US and China are the only growth engines in the world right now, and I'm not really sure if China IS growing anymore.

Let oil prices come down under 85 and hold.... you'll see some growth and a slow increase in rates by late next year.


----------



## Nevada

InvalidID said:


> I really don't believe that.


That's our future for the next few years. I expect the recession to resolve in 4 to 5 years so QE won't be necessary after that, but you can expect QE and low interest rates for the short term.


----------



## InvalidID

Nevada said:


> That's our future for the next few years. I expect the recession to resolve in 4 to 5 years so QE won't be necessary after that, but you can expect QE and low interest rates for the short term.


 With lower oil prices will come more growth, so I'm thinking you'll see rates rise sooner than 5 years.


----------



## InvalidID

Nevada said:


> With the stock market in free-fall, I expect the Fed to announce that QE will resume at a higher rate.


 This is the line of thinking that leads us to never ending QE, which is why I think we won't see as much as expected and we'll see rates rise late next year.


----------



## Nevada

InvalidID said:


> This is the line of thinking that leads us to never ending QE, which is why I think we won't see as much as expected and we'll see rates rise late next year.


We'll see, but I don't have as much confidence in the economy as you have. We'll recover, but not in the next few years. Maybe 4 or 5 years.


----------



## Oxankle

"commodity prices" Good grief---I'm in the process of moving--I took two old cookers to the junkyard this afternoon. I stripped the aluminum off, took the brass burners out and separated aluminum, steel and brass. I got $1.80 per pound for the brass, fifty cents for the aluminum and ten cents for the steel. The burners alone in the one cooker brought $34. 

Now that is inflation.


----------



## Wild_Bill

Wild_Bill said:


> Oil down huge today! This will continue to bring commodities down. If silver breaks through the 17ish floor 15 will come quick. That's where I will make a large purchase.



Huge silver drop. They get it heading down, and its hard to stop. As it drops it triggers many stop losses. Like I said before I feel that 15 is the bottom, but who knows in this crazy world. Might drop to $1, but I'm stacking at $15. Going for 2 monster boxes of eagles. That should hold me for a while.


----------



## Mike CHS

Do you folks buy your Eagles locally on on-line?


----------



## Oxankle

Mike, I am no expert, but it seems to me that the big on-line sellers demand less premium than do the locals. 

Same with selling silver, either scrap or bar. I had a couple of pounds of scrap silver some time back and got considerably more by sending it directly to a refiner than I would have gotten by selling it locally.


----------



## Nevada

Oxankle said:


> Mike, I am no expert, but it seems to me that the big on-line sellers demand less premium than do the locals.
> 
> Same with selling silver, either scrap or bar. I had a couple of pounds of scrap silver some time back and got considerably more by sending it directly to a refiner than I would have gotten by selling it locally.


That's been my experience also. I suppose it depends on your comfort level with dealing from a distance. I'm good with it.


----------



## Mike CHS

My question was more curiosity than anything. I had 30 or so Eagles that I got from my Grandpa years ago. I didn't have them in a safe spot and I suspect my ex's daughter used them for cigarette money or something.


----------



## Oxankle

Not realizing how long it would take to get the silver when paying by check, I ordered some, a test order. Then I found that they held checks for a week before crediting them and it took several more days for the stuff to get to the buyer. 

Well, that did not please me, so I decided to try another way. I had my credit union send the money "electronic check". But I forgot to add in the shipping charge--a very small test order. I rushed down to the nearest B of American and deposited that to the seller's account--almost immediately I got notice that smaller test order had shipped.

In the meantime my house sold---I had to be GONE by Oct 30, so I put in a forwarding order at the PO on 25 October. 

Yesterday I got the "come to the PO and sign for your package" note for the smaller order. Nothing yet from the original. 

Cash at the Bank is certainly the best way to go, but electronic checks beat a paper check apparently.


----------



## Nevada

Silver & gold way down again today. But the strange thing is that there seems to be brisk demand for physical silver. Notice at jmbullion.com that they are out of most 1 oz brands right now. That points to manipulation of paper silver. Experts agree.

*Silver Is One Of The Greatest Opportunities In World History*
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldn..._Greatest_Opportunities_In_World_History.html

It's going to be interesting to see where this ends up.


----------



## snoozy

So what exactly is the effect of paper silver manipulation? How does it work? 
Also, your last link is basically urging people to invest in silver -- but isn't that exactly the type of situation where you say to beware (as in, what's in it for them?)?


----------



## Nevada

snoozy said:


> So what exactly is the effect of paper silver manipulation? How does it work?


There is counter-party risk with silver & gold bullion certificates, with the certificate holder on one side and the issuer (usually a bank or commodity exchange) on the other. The issuer is obligated to either deliver the metal or buy the certificate back.

The allegation is that powerful banks that issued those certificates need to depress silver & gold prices so they can get out of the bullion certificates with their skin. 



snoozy said:


> Also, your last link is basically urging people to invest in silver -- but isn't that exactly the type of situation where you say to beware (as in, what's in it for them?)?


Sure. For example, Peter Schiff is in the business of selling precious metals, so you have to take that into account when you listen to him.


----------



## Oxankle

And, Nevada; Just how does a bank or commodity exchange depress the price of Silver?
Seems to me that would be a good trick.
Ox


----------



## Nevada

Oxankle said:


> And, Nevada; Just how does a bank or commodity exchange depress the price of Silver?
> Seems to me that would be a good trick.
> Ox


They sell silver bullion certificates at low volume times or the day (or night). If they can make available a lot more silver than the market can buy at the time, the price goes into a nosedive.

There are people who pay a lot more attention to that than I do.

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=silver+manipulation

I just buy when it's affordable and hope the world runs out of silver some day.


----------



## snoozy

Nevada said:


> They sell silver bullion certificates at low volume times or the day (or night). If they can make available a lot more silver than the market can buy at the time, the price goes into a nosedive.
> 
> There are people who pay a lot more attention to that than I do.
> 
> https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=silver+manipulation
> 
> I just buy when it's affordable and hope the world runs out of silver some day.


But are they making available more silver? I mean, it's only paper, isn't it? In essence, are they "printing silver" like the Treasury prints dollar bills?


----------



## Nevada

snoozy said:


> But are they making available more silver? I mean, it's only paper, isn't it? In essence, are they "printing silver" like the Treasury prints dollar bills?


I've heard that only 1 ounce in 10 is backed by metal. I've also heard that it's a lot less than that. Investing in paper silver is a whole different game. It's just that the metal gets priced by paper metal trading. I suspect that the day will come when physical silver and gold are traded at a different market and price.


----------



## tarbe

$15.35/ounce. Wow.

When I retired in September 2012 it was like $34/ounce.


----------



## Nevada

tarbe said:


> $15.35/ounce. Wow.
> 
> When I retired in September 2012 it was like $34/ounce.


Hasn't been the best investment the past few years, but that's going to change.


----------



## snoozy

I found this an interesting article, which I found when I was trying to find out why silver spiked in 2010-2011:

http://libertyinsight.com/2010/12/15/the-top-10-reasons-silver-will-soar/


----------



## Nevada

snoozy said:


> I found this an interesting article, which I found when I was trying to find out why silver spiked in 2010-2011:
> 
> http://libertyinsight.com/2010/12/15/the-top-10-reasons-silver-will-soar/


That's a good article. Thanks for posting it.

The #1 reason the article gives talks about how silver & gold are real wealth compared to fiat currency. While that's true I also understand why a true gold standard won't work either. Purists like to think a gold standard is the only way to go, but there just isn't enough of it around for it to work.

The thing is that assets need to be monetized to be traded in the public market, and there are too many assets to monetize all of the assets in existence with the amount of gold in existence. To fully monetize our currency with gold the price of gold would have to be inflated to keep pace with the assets in existence, so it would end up being as inflated as fiat currency.

How it works is; when a developer builds a housing development all of those houses in the development have to be monetized with mortgages for them to be sold. It's not just the value of the materials that went into the houses that have to be monetized, but also labor, profit, and even speculative value. So when a developer builds a housing development currency is created. How will gold keep pace with that without inflating the value of gold?

I think we've grown out of the idea of a true gold standard. It's good to keep some gold on hand to settle international debts, but it can't be used to monetize 100% of the assets in existence today. There just isn't enough.


----------



## unregistered353870

> Purists like to think a gold standard is the only way to go, but there just isn't enough of it around for it to work.


That's not the reason a gold standard won't work. A gold standard could be implemented with only a single ounce of gold in existence..that single ounce would just be worth much more...like several trillion. The real reason it wouldn't work is because it would force the U.S. government to spend within boundaries.


----------



## Oxankle

Hey, not only the US government, but all governments.


----------



## unregistered353870

Other governments are already constrained largely by what we allow. Dollar hegemony keeps "our" government in control and let's it get away with a lot of things no other government can.


----------



## Nevada

jtbrandt said:


> That's not the reason a gold standard won't work. A gold standard could be implemented with only a single ounce of gold in existence..that single ounce would just be worth much more...like several trillion.


No, they couldn't do that because gold is traded globally. If gold is being traded for $1200 around the world we can't pretend that our gold is worth trillions. That would be no different than fiat currency; just pretending that something is worth more than it is.


----------



## unregistered353870

Nevada said:


> No, they couldn't do that because gold is traded globally. If gold is being traded for $1200 around the world we can't pretend that our gold is worth trillions. That would be no different than fiat currency; just pretending that something is worth more than it is.


You realize you quoted what its trading price in DOLLARS, right? Do you see the flaw in your logic?


----------



## Nevada

jtbrandt said:


> You realize you quoted what its trading price in DOLLARS, right? Do you see the flaw in your logic?


Sorry. Let's say gold is trading at $925 Euros then, but the US treasury said our gold is worth trillions of Euros.

Better now?


----------



## Nevada

jtbrandt said:


> The real reason it wouldn't work is because it would force the U.S. government to spend within boundaries.


Or would it? Look at it this way, on the gold standard if someone decided to build a new $3 billion resort in Las Vegas the gold supply would have to be revalued up by $3 billion so the currency to build could be created. So what's to stop the government from increasing the value of gold to fight a war, or expand welfare? Remember, in the 1930s FDR increased the price of gold from $20 to $32 so he could spend more, and we were on a strict gold standard at the time. Gold would just become the new fiat currency.


----------



## DEKE01

Nevada said:


> Or would it? Look at it this way, on the gold standard if someone decided to build a new $3 billion resort in Las Vegas the gold supply would have to be revalued up by $3 billion so the currency to build could be created. So what's to stop the government from increasing the value of gold to fight a war, or expand welfare? Remember, in the 1930s FDR increased the price of gold from $20 to $32 so he could spend more, and we were on a strict gold standard at the time. Gold would just become the new fiat currency.


wrong. First if you build a $3B resort, the only expansion in wealth is the profit portion. If I make and sell a $1 widget at a 10% profit, with each sale, there is only 10 cents in wealth creation. 

As to how the gold standard deals with wealth creation, it just does. To presume it does not, is to assume that zero wealth was ever created in any country at any time in the history of man in any country on the gold standard, which of course is absurd. It is beyond my ability to explain how it happens, but I know it does happen.


----------



## Nevada

DEKE01 said:


> wrong. First if you build a $3B resort, the only expansion in wealth is the profit portion.


Where does the $3 billion to build the place come from?

The money comes out of thin air. You see, when the bank decides that it's a worthwhile project money is borrowed at a wholesale rate (from a commercial bank, who borrows it from the Fed), and the resort project is put up as collateral. The borrowed money is used for materials and labor to build the resort, which will be worth $3 billion when it's done.

Our system is one of monetizing assets, which have value. The more assets that are created the more currency has to be created to monetize the assets. A vicious circle, I know, but that's not going to be an easy system to replace with a gold standard.

[ame]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jqvKjsIxT_8[/ame]


----------



## unregistered353870

Nevada said:


> Sorry. Let's say gold is trading at $925 Euros then, but the US treasury said our gold is worth trillions of Euros.
> 
> Better now?


Nope. You still have it backwards. The dollars would be valued by gold, not the other way around. The gold wouldn't be worth more. The dollars would be worth less.


----------



## Nevada

jtbrandt said:


> Nope. You still have it backwards. The dollars would be valued by gold, not the other way around. The gold wouldn't be worth more. The dollars would be worth less.


There wouldn't be enough money to go around.


----------



## DEKE01

Nevada said:


> Where does the $3 billion to build the place come from?
> 
> The money comes out of thin air. You see, when the bank decides that it's a worthwhile project money is borrowed at a wholesale rate (from a commercial bank, who borrows it from the Fed), and the resort project is put up as collateral. The borrowed money is used for materials and labor to build the resort, which will be worth $3 billion when it's done.
> 
> Our system is one of monetizing assets, which have value. The more assets that are created the more currency has to be created to monetize the assets. A vicious circle, I know, but that's not going to be an easy system to replace with a gold standard.


You fail to understand the fed can not create fiat currency on the gold standard.


----------



## unregistered353870

Nevada said:


> There wouldn't be enough money to go around.


I guess it's just over your head. I give up. Not like I'm arguing for a gold standard anyway. I know it won't happen anyway...at least not until the fiat currency falls apart.


----------



## Nevada

jtbrandt said:


> I guess it's just over your head. I give up. Not like I'm arguing for a gold standard anyway. I know it won't happen voluntarily.


Did you watch the clip in post 225? I strongly urge you to see what it has to say.


----------



## unregistered353870

No, I'm not watching a 46 minute cartoon to "learn" about how great fiat currency is.


----------



## Nevada

DEKE01 said:


> You fail to understand the fed can not create fiat currency on the gold standard.


There would be no point in having a Fed if we went on a strict gold standard. But the problem with that is no new projects could be monetized.


----------



## Nevada

jtbrandt said:


> No, I'm not watching a 46 minute cartoon to "learn" about how great fiat currency is.


It's not about how great it is. It shows the absurdity of debt-created fiat currency.


----------



## unregistered353870

Nevada said:


> It's not about how great it is. It shows the absurdity of debt-created fiat currency.


Interesting...I still don't have the attention span for it. I'm confused, though. You seem very supportive of fiat currency...why post something against it?


----------



## unregistered353870

Nevada said:


> There would be no point in having a Fed if we went on a strict gold standard. But the problem with that is no new projects could be monetized.


Why do you think that? With a gold standard, people could take their piles of gold to pay for things they want to build. If they don't have enough gold, they can borrow some from other people who do. Obviously this is simplistic, since they wouldn't necessarily need physical piles of gold...just currency backed by gold.


----------



## Nevada

jtbrandt said:


> Why do you think that? With a gold standard, people could take their piles of gold to pay for things they want to build. If they don't have enough gold, they can borrow some from other people who do. Obviously this is simplistic, since they wouldn't necessarily need physical piles of gold...just currency backed by gold.


There wouldn't be enough available gold to build new projects fast enough. The economy would collapse.


----------



## DEKE01

Nevada said:


> There would be no point in having a Fed if we went on a strict gold standard.
> 
> 
> *Ummm...exactly. that's at least part of the whole point.*
> 
> But the problem with that is no new projects could be monetized.


So how did anything get monetized when countries were on the gold standard?


----------



## Nevada

DEKE01 said:


> So how did anything get monetized when countries were on the gold standard?


The world was a different place then.


----------



## DEKE01

Nevada said:


> The world was a different place then.


so you're saying a gold standard for currency worked differently "then"? That's rich. Please tell us when and how.


----------



## unregistered353870

Nevada said:


> There wouldn't be enough available gold to build new projects fast enough. The economy would collapse.


Fast enough for what? The economy would be different than it is now...but in mostly positive ways.



Nevada said:


> The world was a different place then.


I too am very interested in how the world has changed. It seems to be the same world it's always been.


----------



## Nevada

jtbrandt said:


> I too am very interested in how the world has changed.


And I'm not interested in arguing. This is supposed to be an exchange of ideas. You seem to take economic concepts personally.


----------



## unregistered353870

Nevada said:


> And I'm not interested in arguing. This is supposed to be an exchange of ideas. You seem to take economic concepts personally.


Nothing personal about it. I'm just confused by what you're talking about. Has human nature changed in the past 100 years or so?


----------



## Nevada

jtbrandt said:


> Nothing personal about it. I'm just confused by what you're talking about. Has human nature changed in the past 100 years or so?


Please, watch the clip. The last 15 minutes discusses alternatives.


----------



## unregistered353870

I may get to it eventually, but it really would be easier if you would just tell us what you mean instead of directing us to a cartoon documentary.


----------



## snoozy

Sometimes, a documentary can explain things better, clearer, or differently. Sometimes, when one person says something, other people attack the idea and that person _because_ it came from that particular person, and sometimes people get tired of that routine and would like to keep the discussion to a civil discussion of ideas.


----------



## Nevada

snoozy said:


> Sometimes, a documentary can explain things better, clearer, or differently. Sometimes, when one person says something, other people attack the idea and that person _because_ it came from that particular person, and sometimes people get tired of that routine and would like to keep the discussion to a civil discussion of ideas.


I certainly don't know everything about it. Being retired I can spend a lot of time reading and watching informational clips. I spend time on it every day.


----------



## Oxankle

Nevada; I am beginning to see why some people buy gold--although I think you are absolutely correct in thinking silver is a better metal for keeping.

I bought a modest amount; it arrived, I put it away.

I bought another modest amount and put it away.

I cannot buy much more without needing a younger man to move it for me.

What the heck does one do with the stuff? Even a few thousand dollars worth will require a place for "heavy storage". 

Footlocker? 
Bury it in the woods?
Hide it under the bed? 

Even if a safe deposit box was the answer, a box big enough to hold a decent amount of silver would be too costly to be practical. 

In one of Pearl Buck's novels I read of an old Chinese man who resisted his government's call for turning in gold--he hid his in a hollow bamboo staff.
That won't work for silver.


----------



## unregistered353870

That right there is part of the security...it's a lot more work to steal $20,000 worth of silver than it is to steal the same in gold.


----------



## Eagle-eye

Reminds me of an old story; A miserly man had a pot of gold that he kept buried under as tree in his yard. Every week he would dig it up and look at it, he loved to do this. Well one night he was digging it up and some thieves were watching him. The next time he tried to dig it up it was gone. He began howling and screaming and all the neighbors came to see what was the matter.

One of his neighbors, an old man known for being very wise, asked him what was wrong, " My pot of gold is gone" said the miser. "Some thieves dug it up and took it!"

"Tell me" said the wise old man, "did you ever spend any of the gold?". "No" said the miser "I just dug it up and looked at it. What will I do now?". 

"No problem" said the wise man, "Just look at the whole".


----------



## Oxankle

Think about it. Right now you can buy a pound of silver for less than $300-
Even a modest 10 pounds is around $3000. 


What would you do if you wanted to really invest in silver--oh, say $100 grand???

It is not only heavy, it is bulky. If you buy coins you have to protect their grade, which means you just cannot toss them in a pile. If rounds they come in plastic tubes (or those I bought in the '80's did) and if you buy one ounce bars they probably come in a plastic sheet. 

This is not a theoretical problem.
Ox


----------



## snoozy

I could store it for you .

In all seriousness, though, I never thought about the bulk before. What is the square inch volume of a 1 pound brick?


----------



## unregistered353870

Without giving too much detail, my silver pile is quite heavy, though still under 100 grand worth at current prices. None of it has any grade value, though. I have my junk coins literally dumped in buckets. I store the rounds in PVC pipe. I think it's 1.5" pipe. I store them 100 ounces per pipe, which makes each pipe about a foot long including the caps. I also have a few hundred-ounce bars but not many because I buy my silver locally and they're hard to find around here. 100 ounces is a little under 7 pounds. 100 grand worth of silver is in the 400-500 pound range if my mental math is correct.

ETA: When I say ounces I mean troy ounces, but by pounds I mean standard American (or whatever they are) pounds. There are about 14.6 troy ounces in a pound. It gets a little confusing.


----------



## unregistered353870

> What is the square inch volume of a 1 pound brick?


Smaller than you would probably guess...2.64 cubic inches.


----------



## Nevada

Oxankle said:


> This is not a theoretical problem.


Investing $100,000 in ANYTHING is theoretical to me. LOL


----------



## unregistered353870

Nevada said:


> Investing $100,000 in ANYTHING is theoretical to me. LOL


Keep stacking...you could get there. And I'm sorry if I derailed the thread a little earlier. It really wasn't personal. I didn't understand what you were saying, but perhaps this thread wasn't the place to seek clarification on that. I'm with you on buying silver.


----------



## Nevada

jtbrandt said:


> Keep stacking...you could get there. And I'm sorry if I derailed the thread a little earlier. It really wasn't personal. I didn't understand what you were saying, but perhaps this thread wasn't the place to seek clarification on that. I'm with you on buying silver.


I still think that silver is the opportunity of a lifetime.


----------



## unregistered353870

I've been mulling over that non-theoretical $100k worth of silver...if you wanted to, you could store that much silver in less than a cubic foot, assuming no empty space. That's about the size of a toaster oven, though much heavier. I wouldn't keep it all in one place, though.


----------



## Vahomesteaders

I keep a small stock pile of silver and gold but have come to realize if things go down hill and the shtf, currency will be food drink medical supplies and ammo. In a long term investment plan scenario they both can sit well but even exchanging them for monetary value week be difficult if things get real bad.


----------



## unregistered353870

I sold most of my gold around $1700 a couple years ago. What I kept is mainly just for easy portability.


----------



## snoozy

What's the best way to keep it from oxidizing? Seal-a-meal it?


----------



## unregistered353870

I don't do anything special to protect it. Tarnish doesn't affect the value of bullion. Coins with numismatic value would need protection probably.


----------



## Oxankle

If we are talking simple investment, 100 oz bars are no problem to store--simply heavy in numbers. 

BUT: if we are talking about protection from bad things that might happen to the country, 100 oz bars would be hard to get rid of. How do you buy a loaf of bread or a gallon of gas if all you have is $500 bills? One ounce bars, or coins, are far more practical from that standpoint.

That is where the hitch comes in. Those small bars do not store so handily as do bigger bars. 

Rounds in pipe are a good idea. Easily stored, easily handled, well protected. 

Now; what are your opinions as to the practical value of saving rounds rather than bars? Would there be any price difference when the time came to unload them?


----------



## Nevada

snoozy said:


> What's the best way to keep it from oxidizing? Seal-a-meal it?


The Johnson Matthey bars I buy come in sealed plastic. I leave them in the plastic. But jtbrandt is correct, silver buyers don't mind tarnish. It shouldn't make any difference.


----------



## where I want to

Ok- I have followed this with interest. I love the idea of something that is not a paper promise.
But I don't understand the benefit except if one is a dealer.

If the currency collapses, the silver might be acceptable to some sellers of neccessities but at a huge discount. When Argentine economy collapsed, pawn shops became full of gold and silver so that they came to have very little value themselves. So it seems, in a collapse scenario, you would have better return having spend your money on storable neccessities than getting little in a panic.

And if you are a small dealer, then it seems surrender costs eat into any profit and that only if inflation hits hard and fast would you be able to convert silver into goods at a better rate rate by having bought silver cheaply. Eventually the price of goods catches up to the panic price increases of metal and you need good timing and the courage of your convictions to sell it at a real profitable time. And not keep it for need long enough for the panic and thus value to recede.

Is the only point that metal always has some value, even if you actually could have bought more with it earlier?

This is not snarky on my part. It is very confusing as to how a person can really manage it well. I say this as a person who inherented a few gold coins from my father, who bought them at a cost that was twice as much as he could have sold them at his death. After about 40 years, their surrender value is a less than twice what he paid in cash but they actually buy less than twice the value as everything else is so much more.


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## Nevada

where I want to said:


> Ok- I have followed this with interest. I love the idea of something that is not a paper promise.
> But I don't understand the benefit except if one is a dealer.


There are a lot of reasons to hold precious metals; hedge against inflation, a safe haven for failed government, safe haven for dollar collapse, safe haven for war, and supply/demand. Some people also include SHTF, but I don't.

One big difference between precious metals and other investment is that there is no counterparty involved. With other investments, such as corporate stock, there necessarily has to be winners and losers in exchanges. That's not the case with silver & gold. You hold the bars, and there is no counterparty.

The benefit to me is that I foresee a silver supply shortage in the next 5 years. I'll acquire silver bar as I can afford it, then wait for a shortage to materialize.


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## JeffreyD

I got a better return investing in ammo! Over 100% in the last few years!


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## snoozy

I am not concerned with Hollywood apocalypse scenarios, so I really don't envision needing to buy bread or gas with bullion. I am just looking for something to store my earnings/savings in, that will appreciate eventually. I do not like the stock market and such things -- too much like giving your money to someone you don't know at all. 

Think about it: if you put your money in a savings acct at the bank, you get almost no profit at all for letting them use your money. You'd make more money with a garage sale. If you put it in the stock market or mutual funds, you are putting your faith in the dealings of people you do not know, manipulated by greedy buggers and furthering corporate policies you probably don't support. And you might make 10% profit, if you are lucky.

But if you can sit on your silver till the supply becomes scarce, you could well make a tidy sum. So you buy at $16 and maybe at some point, it goes up to $32, you have doubled your money. That's a nice return. If it does more than that, if supply is truly going to become an issue, then the profit will be quite gratifying, to say the least. 

From Feb of 2010 to April of 2011, silver went from $15 to $45. In just over a year. It tripled. So if you had $10,000 worth, suddenly you had $30,000. Now, I don't know why it happened. But even the USGS says silver supply is going to run out. And as solar and other uses increase, demand will also be going up. 

If Nevada is as wise as I think he is (and he is, as we all know, the Voice of Reason :thumb, then I think buying silver is certainly worth considering.


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## Oxankle

I agree with some of Snoozy's comments, and some I don't. First, not everything in the stock market is bad; there are some solid, old, reputable companies out there that are paying dividends higher than you can get on CD's at a bank. 

This changes; at one time I had CD's drawing 15% compounded daily in an insured account--a friend went for one more percentage point in an UNINSURED account and lost his breeches. 

The silver I bought in the '80's , had I bought stocks instead, would have given me a solid 3 to 5 percent in almost any good stock, every year, and I would still own the stock. 

To my way of thinking, silver is a safety reserve--It will be worth something no matter what the country comes to. It beats lead and copper only because it stores more value in less space, just as gold stores more than silver. (And I'd be interested in knowing whether lead and copper were more or less volatile)

Edit to add: J and M bars as Nevada says, come in plastic envelopes, 20 to a page. The plastic makes them a bulky storage item. 
As for JeffreyD's remarks, yes--I can reload .410 shells for about a third of their cost at Walmart, and rifle/pisto ammo I can reload for pennies on the dollar retail cost.
Powder, brass, primers, lead---everything has gone out of sight.


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## Nevada

Oxankle said:


> Edit to add: J and M bars as Nevada says, come in plastic envelopes, 20 to a page. The plastic makes them a bulky storage item.


If storage was a problem I would probably go to 10 oz Royal Canadian bars instead.

http://www.jmbullion.com/10-oz-royal-canadian-mint-silver-bar/

They are 4 nines and come individually wrapped. That would be a lot less bulky than 1 oz bars. But I wouldn't go with bars any larger than 10 oz.


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## unregistered353870

JeffreyD said:


> I got a better return investing in ammo! Over 100% in the last few years!


Do you actually sell ammo to take profit, or are you just considering what it would cost you to buy now versus what you paid for it?

I'm just curious, because I already have more ammo than I will ever need and I don't want to be in the ammo business so it wouldn't be a good investment for me to buy more. Metals are somewhat more liquid. Plus sometimes they do much better than 100% over a few years.


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## unregistered353870

Oxankle said:


> If we are talking simple investment, 100 oz bars are no problem to store--simply heavy in numbers.
> 
> BUT: if we are talking about protection from bad things that might happen to the country, 100 oz bars would be hard to get rid of. How do you buy a loaf of bread or a gallon of gas if all you have is $500 bills? One ounce bars, or coins, are far more practical from that standpoint.
> 
> That is where the hitch comes in. Those small bars do not store so handily as do bigger bars.
> 
> Rounds in pipe are a good idea. Easily stored, easily handled, well protected.
> 
> Now; what are your opinions as to the practical value of saving rounds rather than bars? Would there be any price difference when the time came to unload them?


My silver investment isn't intended to be SHTF prep, but that may be a side benefit if it comes to that. I'm not particularly concerned about the large bars being difficult to use. Silver is silver. If we go to an economy where metals are widely used as a medium of exchange, pretty much everyone engaged in commerce will have a scale to weigh it out. Just carve off a little of the bar and there you go...probably slightly less value in an ounce of that than a 1-ounce round.

Rounds versus bars, I have no idea. I would guess either no difference or rounds would be slightly better. Just a hunch, based on the fact that rounds look like the money we're familiar with and bars don't. And rounds are very convenient the way I store them in pipes. I could fit $100k in a standard carry-on suitcase in the pipes...but the weight would likely break the suitcase.


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## Nevada

jtbrandt said:


> Rounds versus bars, I have no idea.


I prefer bars. The important thing is not not pay extra for artwork or collector value, and that the silver is from a respected mint. Government mints are above reproach but their rounds have high premiums. Sometimes those premiums can be recovered on sale, but I don't count on anything but metal value.

I get the best value from bars made by LBMA approved refiners. You just can't go wrong with Johnson Matthey bars.


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## JeffreyD

jtbrandt said:


> Do you actually sell ammo to take profit, or are you just considering what it would cost you to buy now versus what you paid for it?
> 
> I'm just curious, because I already have more ammo than I will ever need and I don't want to be in the ammo business so it wouldn't be a good investment for me to buy more. Metals are somewhat more liquid. Plus sometimes they do much better than 100% over a few years.


I'm just considering what I paid in the past compared to what it would cost right now! Over 100% increase! I could sell all I have and make much more than I could if I had invested in precious metals....which I have also done. Plus I can protect and provide for my family and friends with ammo....not so much with silver or gold!


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## Oxankle

I suspect that most of us on this forum have plenty of ammunition. That is good in a situation where the country goes out of control and we have to band together to form militias to protect our towns and homesteads. 

Not worth a penny to those of us who live where the population would wipe out the wild game in three months if food became scarce. 
Adios, time for church


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## where I want to

I need more basic answers.

How to you actually use a stash of silver? I can see if there is a pretty total failure of the currency that clipping coinage was the way of paying for things- a quarter was at some point in history an actual quarter piece cut from a coin- at times when there weren't multiple denominations. You just broke coins into pieces to pay for things worth less than whole coin.

I can see that a silver coin might be worth more with inflation, although I think maybe other things might actually hold better or at least more stable value.

But in a situation where you are using it as a hedge on inflation, how do you decide when and how to sell it? It is a pretty volatile market . And litererally how do you change it back into spendable money at times when there is the current currency still works? Sell it to dealers?


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## Nevada

where I want to said:


> But in a situation where you are using it as a hedge on inflation, how do you decide when and how to sell it?


That's true, it's pretty volatile and inflation is very slow. Selling silver is as much of an art is buying it.



where I want to said:


> And litererally how do you change it back into spendable money at times when there is the current currency still works? Sell it to dealers?


That's not a problem. There are gold & silver dealers everywhere. You can always sell it to the same place you got it from if you bought it online, but selling locally will get your money just that much faster.

I discourage selling to pawn brokers though. Silver reporting is very relaxed through metal & coin dealers, who only report sales on a 1099 when you sell 1,000 oz or more. Pawn brokers usually 1099 anything over $600.


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## Roadking

I'm with Jeff here. I do buy and sell guns and ammo now and then (yes, legally, thank you). Usually to trade up to a better one/caliber. I do have silver and gold, but my ROI on firearms, ammo, antique cars, services far out weigh the ROI on silver and gold. 
Have some for certain, but skills and other things are a better investment in my opinion.

Matt


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## unregistered353870

where I want to said:


> I need more basic answers.
> 
> How to you actually use a stash of silver? I can see if there is a pretty total failure of the currency that clipping coinage was the way of paying for things- a quarter was at some point in history an actual quarter piece cut from a coin- at times when there weren't multiple denominations. You just broke coins into pieces to pay for things worth less than whole coin.
> 
> I can see that a silver coin might be worth more with inflation, although I think maybe other things might actually hold better or at least more stable value.
> 
> But in a situation where you are using it as a hedge on inflation, how do you decide when and how to sell it? It is a pretty volatile market . And litererally how do you change it back into spendable money at times when there is the current currency still works? Sell it to dealers?


I wouldn't buy metals as a hedge against inflation. I think that's been over-hyped and isn't really a good investment. They are almost certainly better than cash for that purpose, but still not ideal. If that's your goal, you're probably better off buying things you will use in the future.

To convert back to cash, yes, just sell it to dealers. There are dealers in all major cities, most medium cities, and even in some small towns. Pawn shops will always buy gold and silver and most give decent prices, but dealers that actually specialize in metals are probably always going to be better.

You could get slightly more selling it to an individual, but not worth it in my opinion unless you happen to have someone you know who wants to buy. Advertising and all that dealing with people to sell it is too much hassle. That's the same reason I don't "invest" in ammo more than what I need for my own use...I have no interest in setting up shop to unload my investments. As far as I know, there is no highly liquid market for ammo on anything near the scale as there is for metals.


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## unregistered353870

Roadking said:


> I'm with Jeff here. I do buy and sell guns and ammo now and then (yes, legally, thank you). Usually to trade up to a better one/caliber. I do have silver and gold, but my ROI on firearms, ammo, antique cars, services far out weigh the ROI on silver and gold.
> Have some for certain, but skills and other things are a better investment in my opinion.
> 
> Matt


Sounds like a lot of "work" to me...of course, if it's a hobby type thing that also makes you money, it's not really work. Or if it's a business, that's cool, too. But investments are supposed to be less work than running a business...more like passive income/gain. All I have to do to take profit on my metals is take them to the dealer and he hands me cash. Super easy. No having to deal with much dickering over price or multiple people or customers...when you cash in metals, you _are_ the customer.


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## JeffreyD

jtbrandt said:


> Sounds like a lot of "work" to me...of course, if it's a hobby type thing that also makes you money, it's not really work. Or if it's a business, that's cool, too. But investments are supposed to be less work than running a business...more like passive income/gain. All I have to do to take profit on my metals is take them to the dealer and he hands me cash. Super easy. No having to deal with much dickering over price or multiple people or customers...when you cash in metals, you _are_ the customer.


It's really pretty easy..for example. ..i go to the gun show..they have bricks of 22's for $15. I buy 100 and go home. 5 years later..those same bricks are going for $30 to $35 each. I can sell all I have at that price...If I wanted to!


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## Roadking

about 20 years ago I loaded up on Enfields, m1 carbines, sks etc, plus extra magazines and accessories when they were easily had for $99 covered in cosmoline.
I did it for enjoyment as well as investment...try to find any of them for that price...heck even Mosins are at cheapest $159 locally...I bought them at $59.
What's the old saying? Beans, bullets and bandaids.
I won't even go into the Garands and 03s. All have made my shooting pleasure and other things a no sweat type thing. BUT...I am almost out...LOL! Never had less than 100% profit on any of them or their ammo and accessories.

Matt


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## unregistered353870

JeffreyD said:


> It's really pretty easy..for example. ..i go to the gun show..they have bricks of 22's for $15. I buy 100 and go home. 5 years later..those same bricks are going for $30 to $35 each. I can sell all I have at that price...If I wanted to!


This is the part I'm interested in...who do you sell them to? I'm assuming it must be individuals if you get the current price they're going for in stores. I'm assuming dealers are going to pay quite a bit less so they can make a decent profit. Finding the individuals to sell to probably isn't much of a problem because you know them already, but that would be too much hassle for me, especially if I only double my money in five years. Everybody I know who wants ammo already has far more than they need. I could probably still unload quite a bit of ammo no problem if I called around or put an ad on craigslist, but I have better things to do than call around or deal with strangers calling me.

That's the good thing about metals...the prices are very well established on a worldwide market with a very narrow bid-ask spread.


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## unregistered353870

Roadking said:


> about 20 years ago I loaded up on Enfields, m1 carbines, sks etc, plus extra magazines and accessories when they were easily had for $99 covered in cosmoline.
> *I did it for enjoyment as well as investment*...try to find any of them for that price...heck even Mosins are at cheapest $159 locally...I bought them at $59.
> What's the old saying? Beans, bullets and bandaids.
> I won't even go into the Garands and 03s. All have made my shooting pleasure and other things a no sweat type thing. BUT...I am almost out...LOL! Never had less than 100% profit on any of them or their ammo and accessories.
> 
> Matt


I think that's the key. It's a hobby that also pays off. Nothing wrong with that.


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## Oxankle

Jeff; when did you last buy a brick (10 boxes) of 22 ammo for $15? It is a bit higher than that here.
Ox


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## Vahomesteaders

I buy 22 here by the 1000 count for 15.00 from a good buddy at cost then sell them for 75. Sane with 45 and 380. I generally make at least 300% profit almost emediatly.


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## BlackFeather

Just came across this on the + gold side of discussion.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-08/gold-economic-freedom


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## Nevada

Mines are reacting to the low prices by announcing reduction in silver dory bar production.

http://www.kitco.com/news/2014-11-10/KitcoNewsMarketNuggets-November-11.html


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## snoozy

So what is your formula for deciding when you're going to sell? At what point do you decide, it's not going to go higher, or what is your pricepoint?

("Ya gotta, know when to hold 'em, Know when to fold 'em...")


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## unregistered353870

Good question. I don't have a number in mind. I'm interested to hear Nevada's answer.

I sold about half of my silver when it got up around $35 a couple years ago. It continued up to around $45 and then back down from there. I started buying again once it went under $20. I'm not sure I'll sell under $100 now...but I might. It partly depends on how long it takes to rise. If I get impatient I might take profits early and pass up bigger potential gains. Taxes are another factor...long term versus short term is goofy with physical metals...different than other capital gains.


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## Nevada

jtbrandt said:


> Good question. I don't have a number in mind. I'm interested to hear Nevada's answer.


It depends. I'm waiting for silver to have a supply crisis, but there are occasions when selling before that might be smart.

If gold and silver both go up proportionately (about the same percentage each) to maybe 80 or so, then you might be looking at an opportunity to sell so you can take advantage of the next price drop to multiply your silver holdings.

If silver goes up independent of gold, then don't sell until the supply crisis has reached its limit. That could be hundreds of dollars per ounce.


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## snoozy

jtbrandt said:


> Good question. I don't have a number in mind. I'm interested to hear Nevada's answer.
> 
> I sold about half of my silver when it got up around $35 a couple years ago. It continued up to around $45 and then back down from there. I started buying again once it went under $20. I'm not sure I'll sell under $100 now...but I might. It partly depends on how long it takes to rise. If I get impatient I might take profits early and pass up bigger potential gains. Taxes are another factor...long term versus short term is goofy with physical metals...different than other capital gains.


How are taxes handled? Are sales reported to the IRS by the dealer? What form is required on your income tax return?


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## Nevada

snoozy said:


> How are taxes handled? Are sales reported to the IRS by the dealer? What form is required on your income tax return?


Basically you're only 1099ed for transactions of 1,000 oz or more. There are more details on this page.

http://blog.goldeneaglecoin.com/bullion-sales-private/


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## snoozy

Nevada said:


> Basically you're only 1099ed for transactions of 1,000 oz or more. There are more details on this page.
> 
> http://blog.goldeneaglecoin.com/bullion-sales-private/


So that is per transaction? Not, cumulatively, so that if you were to unload 900oz per day, there would be no 1099?


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## Nevada

snoozy said:


> So that is per transaction? Not, cumulatively, so that if you were to unload 900oz per day, there would be no 1099?


That's my understanding. But staying under 1,000 oz won't be a problem for me. LOL


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## unregistered353870

snoozy said:


> How are taxes handled? Are sales reported to the IRS by the dealer? What form is required on your income tax return?





snoozy said:


> So that is per transaction? Not, cumulatively, so that if you were to unload 900oz per day, there would be no 1099?


I'm pretty sure you're still required to report the gains to the IRS yourself even if you don't get a 1099, so I wouldn't get too caught up in trying to avoid 1099s. I believe that a "day" in that law is defined as any 24-hour period, so if you sell some at noon one day and then more the next morning, it's considered the same day. Also, selling multiple times in a short period but keeping each sale just under the threshold for reporting is called "structuring" and it's considered suspicious. Dealers are required to report suspicious transactions just the same as those over the threshold, and suspicious transactions will get extra scrutiny from the IRS.

As for the actual taxes, they can be quite high. If you hold for less than a year, the capital gain is taxed at your regular income tax rate. If you hold for longer than a year, the tax rate is 28% of your gain. This means if your ordinary income tax rate is lower than 28% your long term rate on metals is actually higher than your short term rate, which is the opposite of how regular capital gains work out for most (if not all) people. So if you're near the one year point and considering selling, it's a good idea to calculate the difference and determine whether to sell the day before or the day after the one year point. It could make a significant difference in the taxes you pay.


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## snoozy

Good to know!


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## Nevada

snoozy said:


> Good to know!


The point is that a 1099 wouldn't tell them whether you made or lost on the transaction anyway. The 1099 only informs them that the transaction took place and how much you received for the sale. It doesn't say how much you paid for for the silver, or how much you might have paid to store it, insure it, or ship it. You can also deduct any financial periodicals or investment advice you might have paid for.

If a lot of money suddenly showed up in your checking account, say $100K, then you would probably have to explain where it came from. But smaller transactions can remain private.


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## Oxankle

I've a friend who has traded in silver for years. He is in a position to buy silver services at estate sales, auctions, etc. He told me that in the case of silver he might buy a teaspoon that he can retail for $20, but has $15 worth of silver in it. When the price goes to such a level that the silver is worth more than the spoon it goes to the refiner.

Some patterns, he mentioned ROSEPOINT, are more valuable today on the retail market than others, so that if silver goes to the refiner he holds back those that are most valuable at retail and sends the less popular patterns. 

Some he sends to the refiner himself, but he deals with another specialist who will give him a about 97% of his price at the refiner, so he often sells locally. He's been doing this for years---

He also said that at one point buyers were buying plate, photo film, X-rays--anything with silver. This ended when the silver boom broke. Further, industry is finding ways around the use of silver. He does not expect another boom anytime soon and would not be surprised to see silver bottom out at less than $10 per oz. 

As an investment, no, he says, but as a hedge against disaster, yes.

My own opinion; since I am currently buying silver again, watch it go down.

Ox


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## Nevada

Oxankle said:


> I've a friend who has traded in silver for years. He is in a position to buy silver services at estate sales, auctions, etc. He told me that in the case of silver he might buy a teaspoon that he can retail for $20, but has $15 worth of silver in it. When the price goes to such a level that the silver is worth more than the spoon it goes to the refiner.
> 
> Some patterns, he mentioned ROSEPOINT, are more valuable today on the retail market than others, so that if silver goes to the refiner he holds back those that are most valuable at retail and sends the less popular patterns.
> 
> Some he sends to the refiner himself, but he deals with another specialist who will give him a about 97% of his price at the refiner, so he often sells locally. He's been doing this for years---
> 
> He also said that at one point buyers were buying plate, photo film, X-rays--anything with silver. This ended when the silver boom broke. Further, industry is finding ways around the use of silver. He does not expect another boom anytime soon and would not be surprised to see silver bottom out at less than $10 per oz.
> 
> As an investment, no, he says, but as a hedge against disaster, yes.
> 
> My own opinion; since I am currently buying silver again, watch it go down.
> 
> Ox


I've looked for sterling in second had stores, but I've never found any.


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## snoozy

Oxankle said:


> I've a friend who has traded in silver for years. He is in a position to buy silver services at estate sales, auctions, etc. He told me that in the case of silver he might buy a teaspoon that he can retail for $20, but has $15 worth of silver in it. When the price goes to such a level that the silver is worth more than the spoon it goes to the refiner.
> 
> Some patterns, he mentioned ROSEPOINT, are more valuable today on the retail market than others, so that if silver goes to the refiner he holds back those that are most valuable at retail and sends the less popular patterns.
> 
> Some he sends to the refiner himself, but he deals with another specialist who will give him a about 97% of his price at the refiner, so he often sells locally. He's been doing this for years---
> 
> He also said that at one point buyers were buying plate, photo film, X-rays--anything with silver. This ended when the silver boom broke. Further, industry is finding ways around the use of silver. He does not expect another boom anytime soon and would not be surprised to see silver bottom out at less than $10 per oz.
> 
> As an investment, no, he says, but as a hedge against disaster, yes.
> 
> My own opinion; since I am currently buying silver again, watch it go down.
> 
> Ox


But WHY did the silver boom break? And WHY was there a boom? Why did it happen in 2011, and why would it not happen again? What is different now?


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## Nevada

snoozy said:


> But WHY did the silver boom break? And WHY was there a boom? Why did it happen in 2011, and why would it not happen again? What is different now?


The 2011 run-up was mostly because of concerns of hyperinflation and currency collapse. Precious metals drifted back down as the public regained confidence in currency and had a widespread belief that economic conditions were improving.


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## Oxankle

Nevada: This fellow deals in estate auctions and the like. Silverware for many today is a bother and they don't like Grandma's pattern anyway, so they sell it at auction, or at an estate sale. Especially if there is an old, tarnished candy dish, or a bent/broken candelabra--it goes for little unless there is a knowledgeable buyer there to compete against.

People who run antique and second-hand stores are too smart to let silver get away.


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## Oxankle

Will one of you fellows who are experienced here tell me why: At Goldmart the spread between spot and buy, for Johnson-Mathey one oz bars, is $1.30, the spread between spot and your price at selling is $1.28. In short, the firm makes $2.58 before you earn a penney.

Now, if you buy Sunshine Mint bars the spread is $0.80 to buy, $0.49 to sell.

Somebody explain the reason for this as both bars come from Good Delivery mints.


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## Nevada

Oxankle said:


> Will one of you fellows who are experienced here tell me why: At Goldmart the spread between spot and buy, for Johnson-Mathey one oz bars, is $1.30, the spread between spot and your price at selling is $1.28. In short, the firm makes $2.58 before you earn a penney.
> 
> Now, if you buy Sunshine Mint bars the spread is $0.80 to buy, $0.49 to sell.
> 
> Somebody explain the reason for this as both bars come from Good Delivery mints.


They don't both come from good delivery mints. That's determined by the London Bullion Market Accociation (LBMA). Here's the current list, but you won't find Sunshine Mint on the list.

http://www.lbma.org.uk/Default.aspx...udeBoolFalse=True&ID=/refiners-silver-current

I have confidence in Sunshine Mint because they're a supplier of silver rounds to the US Mint for making silver eagles, but they aren't an LBMA approved refiner. Johnson Matthey is on the list.

If you're looking for a smaller premium you might look for OPM (Ohio Precious Metals) or RMC (Republic Metals) bars. They're both recently listed LBMA silver refiners and sell for less than JM bars. Neither of those refiners have serial numbers on their bars like JM, but at least they're LBMA approved.

I know that I pay a little more for JM bars but I want my bars to be above reproach. What you're trying to avoid is having your bars drilled and assayed when you sell, and having the assay bill deducted from your settlement. Any time you deal in non-LBMA silver you run the risk of that happening.

Interestingly, probably the most popular bar among silver stackers is the so-called SilverTowne "donkey" bar. That's not LBMA approved, but the premium is usually very low. Silver stackers love them but I can't guarantee what their selling experience will be.


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## Jeffery

Nevada said:


> Silver spot price is at lows we haven't seen in almost 5 years.
> 
> http://silverprice.org/
> 
> I see it as a buying opportunity. But you decide for yourself.


Great website for current silver and gold prices. 
Do you know a good website for the current price of brass?


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## Nevada

Jeffery said:


> Great website for current silver and gold prices.
> Do you know a good website for the current price of brass?


I don't follow base metals, so I don't know.


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## cedarvalley

The U.S. Mint said last week it had temporarily sold out of its American Eagle silver coins pointing to "tremendous" demand in the past several weeks. In a statement sent out to its largest U.S. coin wholesalers, the U.S. Mint said it will continue to produce 2014 coins but no additional inventory is currently available.
According to Bloomberg News, American Eagle silver coin sales jumped 40 percent in October, selling 5.79 million ounces worth of the coins. That was the most since January 2013, when the silver coin sales reached an all-time record of 7.5 million ounces. Maybe silver has made its low, I guess we will see if it can sustain follow through buying, and close strong next week.


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## Nevada

cedarvalley said:


> The U.S. Mint said last week it had temporarily sold out of its American Eagle silver coins pointing to "tremendous" demand in the past several weeks. In a statement sent out to its largest U.S. coin wholesalers, the U.S. Mint said it will continue to produce 2014 coins but no additional inventory is currently available.
> According to Bloomberg News, American Eagle silver coin sales jumped 40 percent in October, selling 5.79 million ounces worth of the coins. That was the most since January 2013, when the silver coin sales reached an all-time record of 7.5 million ounces. Maybe silver has made its low, I guess we will see if it can sustain follow through buying, and close strong next week.


Yes, I saw that in the news also. Interesting that the demand for physical silver is so high yet the price has been dropping.


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## snoozy

Exactly. So what does it mean? 

A couple of people I have discussed silver with have said, just buy paper silver. My thought is that, as an analogy, if there were a shortage of salt, paper salt wouldn't do you much on your eggs. When there is a shortage, the real stuff if required. They said, you just don't understand. To which I fully concur. 

How does paper silver work? Is it just like orange juice futures? Betting it will go up (or down, I suppose)?


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## Oxankle

I don't know how paper silver trades, but I am skeptical of it. If the government wants your silver it will be much easier to confiscate your rights on an exchange than it will be to find you and chase you down.

Now; I am so steamed. A month or so ago I ordered some silver. Being really cheap I refused to pay for a bank wire, nor even the X% charge on my plastic. I wanted either to deposit the money in the dealer's bank account, or have my credit union send them an electronic check--they process much faster than paper checks. Two to five day deliver with electronic, two weeks or more with a paper check.

So I set up the account and had the CU send a check. As soon as it processed the CU had the routing numbers and could process electronically. The second order got to me before the first.

Then I moved. Changed the address at the credit union, set up another order and SPECIFICALLY TOLD THEM TO SEND IT ELECTRONICALLY USING THE ALREADY KNOWN 
routing number. The woman I dealt with was well informed, knew how to do this and set it up. That night the half-witted, dimwit, cretinous jerks who processed the payment sent a paper check. 

Next I wanted to set up a monthly payment to our church here. Idiots had three choices: Pay an individual (first and last name, address, etc), Pay a business (name, address, account number and so on) or Pay a bank or loan company--same, account number, etc. 

Now how many of you have an account number at your church? I called the help line and got hold of a woman who knew her stuff, same lady who told me how to do the silver.--the workaround for paying a church as an individual was: "First name: Annandalebaptist Surname: Church, plus address, etc and how much $.

To pay a church as a business: Church name: Annandale Baptist Church.
Account number; enter your own name twice
Then add the amount and how often.

This lady helped me set up the silver account, found the already known routing numbers and set up the transaction--yet that night some cretin sent a paper check.

When I found out I called the help line and the idiot answering did not even know you could set up the church account without an account number. I was really burned.


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## Nevada

snoozy said:


> How does paper silver work?


The thing is that there are certain costs associated with taking delivery on physical precious metals. But not everyone wants to hold silver or gold long term. Many investors are interested in short term speculation, where they only hold the silver for hours, days, or weeks. If that's the case then paper silver makes sense. The only costs are the actual transaction fees, which are much lower than the cost of taking delivery on the metal.


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## unregistered353870

There are a lot of shenanigans with paper silver. Paper trading is likely the cause of the price going down lately. Wall Street players can push the price down by manipulation and then pick up the real thing for cheap. I don't really know exactly how it works, but there is really very little connection between the two markets other than the price. At some point I expect a decoupling of paper and physical silver. There is already a small spread, but it seems inevitable that they would eventually have to almost break apart completely. I could be wrong.


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## snoozy

Well, so we small-fry are/would be buying physical silver in a market manipulated by paper silver tigers. What chance do we have?


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## Nevada

snoozy said:


> Well, so we small-fry are/would be buying physical silver in a market manipulated by paper silver tigers. What chance do we have?


The only chance is for there to be a run on a demand for delivery on paper silver. When the reality that they can't deliver sets-in, physical silver will skyrocket and it will decouple from paper silver.


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## unregistered353870

snoozy said:


> Well, so we small-fry are/would be buying physical silver in a market manipulated by paper silver tigers. What chance do we have?


Try to figure out what they're doing and take advantage of it. They're driving it down now (I think) so it's a good time to buy. They can't keep it down forever, nor would they want to. Manipulators make money on movement in markets.


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## Nevada

jtbrandt said:


> They're driving it down now (I think) so it's a good time to buy.


That's the way I look at it. If they're manipulating the price down it's allowing me to acquire more silver.


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## Wild_Bill

I make 1-4 buys per month from the local dealer. He is fair on pricing. $1-$2 over on bars and rounds. Sometimes I buy an oz. sometimes more. Someone around me must be worried! He just scored 100 10oz bars. No way would I be selling now. 

I just keep buying every month. I'll use it when the time is right, or if I don't screw up my finances pass it on to my children.

I use mostly pocket money to buy my silver. Money that would have been spent on something else, so I don't much care about the price. I have bought it at $5-$42 over the years.

Sometimes when it's low I make a bigger buy. Like now! Believe me I got my fair share of those 10oz'ers


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## Oxankle

Yoicks! I just checked the prices for Johnson-Mathey one oz bars; compared JM Bullion and Goldmart. JM wants $18.91, Goldmart $17.51 That is a dollar-forty spread at retail, with Goldmart being a dollar forty or so over spot.

Pays to shop around; Nevada, have you got all the best ones laid out???
Ox


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## Nevada

Oxankle said:


> Yoicks! I just checked the prices for Johnson-Mathey one oz bars; compared JM Bullion and Goldmart. JM wants $18.91, Goldmart $17.51 That is a dollar-forty spread at retail, with Goldmart being a dollar forty or so over spot.
> 
> Pays to shop around; Nevada, have you got all the best ones laid out???
> Ox


Goldmart is the least, but when you check out with a credit card it will add a 2.4% credit card processing fee.


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## Oxankle

Nevada; I won't use the credit card; that 2.4% is another hump to overcome before you can break even. You are going to lose $1.39 on one oz bars to buy, then perhaps another dollar to sell, maybe more. At today's $16.54 that's another 40c to climb.

I think I have a way worked out to pay electronically, so that the payment is fast, effortless and certain. Delivery should be almost as fast as bank deposit. We'll see.


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## Nevada

Oxankle said:


> I think I have a way worked out to pay electronically, so that the payment is fast, effortless and certain. Delivery should be almost as fast as bank deposit. We'll see.


Let me know how it worked for you.


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## Oxankle

will do


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## snoozy

So I'm looking at Goldmart's FAQs, and I see that for under 4 pounds costs $19.95 to ship, per order. A 1 oz bar, a 10 oz bar, on up to 50 troy oz worth, would all costs $20 to ship. That does add significantly to the cost per oz, if you buy only in small amounts. 

Little brain ponders and ponders...


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## Oxankle

Up to 100 0z of 1 oz bars $8.95 shipping. Check again. They ship US postal service, so they can use the "anything goes" boxes too. 

If your are anywhere near a Bank of A. that is by far the best way to buy. I'm nowhere near one.


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## Nevada

Oxankle said:


> If your are anywhere near a Bank of A. that is by far the best way to buy. I'm nowhere near one.


Not surprising. Their offices are at the BofA building in Carson City.


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## Oxankle

Well; silver has gone up 86 cents since In placed my first order. Perhaps it is on its way to a new peak.


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## Nevada

Oxankle said:


> Well; silver has gone up 86 cents since In placed my first order. Perhaps it is on its way to a new peak.


I hope not. I did my Christmas shopping this month so I'll be buying silver next month. I don't think I completely missed the boat, but I may be paying $1/oz more next month.


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## Oxankle

Well, Nevada; silver's back down 43cents last time I looked. 

You will recall that I ordered a bit by check and a bit by having the credit union send the $ electronically. The electronic shipment is here---all I got was a confirmation of the order and the delivery. Packing slip shows "Bank Wire". Banks here charge, I think, $35 for a bank wire. Zero cost the way I did it, so I'm out the 9 cents shipping, the purchase and sales premium only (plus the 43 cents, lol.)
Ox

The check shipment has not yet arrived, though ordered a week earlier.


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## Nevada

Oxankle said:


> Well, Nevada; silver's back down 43cents last time I looked.
> 
> You will recall that I ordered a bit by check and a bit by having the credit union send the $ electronically. The electronic shipment is here---all I got was a confirmation of the order and the delivery. Packing slip shows "Bank Wire". Banks here charge, I think, $35 for a bank wire. Zero cost the way I did it, so I'm out the 9 cents shipping, the purchase and sales premium only (plus the 43 cents, lol.)
> Ox
> 
> The check shipment has not yet arrived, though ordered a week earlier.


Thanks, I've always ordered by Visa card. I'll try the bank wire. I have a BofA nearby.


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## DEKE01

BOA does not charge for wires if you maintain a certain min balance. But some of their polices vary by state.


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## Nevada

DEKE01 said:


> BOA does not charge for wires if you maintain a certain min balance. But some of their polices vary by state.


I don't happen to bank at BofA.


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## MoonRiver

I was feeling real good about the quick 6% increase in the last month. Unfortunately, it all got wiped out and then some today. I bought the etf because I was after appreciation.


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## Oxankle

Nevada; At B of A you simply deposit the money to the Goldmart/lpmi account, not a bank wire but a direct deposit. That is the fastest way of all. Place the order, get the confirmation email, go to B of A and make the deposit to the account as directed in the confirmation. 

I don't have access to a nearby B of A, so I had to figure out another way. I won't pay the credit card charge, and checks, even cashier's checks and money orders, are way to slow.


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## Nevada

Oxankle said:


> Nevada; At B of A you simply deposit the money to the Goldmart/lpmi account, not a bank wire but a direct deposit. That is the fastest way of all. Place the order, get the confirmation email, go to B of A and make the deposit to the account as directed in the confirmation.


OK, I'll try it in the middle of the month. Sounds easy enough.


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## Oxankle

Ok, Nevada; here is the last detail on my experiment. I ordered, by personal check, on Nov. 11, got the merchandise today.

On Nov. 20 I had the credit union send an electronic payment, got the merchandise on Nov. 28. 

Eight days electronic, twenty days by check. Bank deposit at B of A will be quicker yet. Very quick for you as I am in Arkansas.


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## Nevada

Oxankle said:


> Ok, Nevada; here is the last detail on my experiment. I ordered, by personal check, on Nov. 11, got the merchandise today.
> 
> On Nov. 20 I had the credit union send an electronic payment, got the merchandise on Nov. 28.
> 
> Eight days electronic, twenty days by check. Bank deposit at B of A will be quicker yet. Very quick for you as I am in Arkansas.


Gold and silver are back down again so I picked up a little of both today. Not a lot, but a little to add to my stack. 5 oz silver and 2.5 grams gold (about $100 of each).

I got the silver from goldmart, but for a 5 ounce purchase I was only going to save about $2.50 by going with the BofA deposit instead of the credit card purchase. It didn't seem worth standing in line at the bank for $2.50. I just used my Visa card.


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## Oxankle

Well, Nevada: Since you bought the gold I don't know how to allocate the Visa Fee, but had you only bought silver it would have cost you an extra fifty cents per ounce.

On any kind of larger order it makes sense to go to the bank. Fifty cents per ounce mounts up pretty quickly. 

I have not ordered anything since my last posting. The holidays got in the way.


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## Nevada

Oxankle said:


> Well, Nevada: Since you bought the gold I don't know how to allocate the Visa Fee, but had you only bought silver it would have cost you an extra fifty cents per ounce.
> 
> On any kind of larger order it makes sense to go to the bank. Fifty cents per ounce mounts up pretty quickly.
> 
> I have not ordered anything since my last posting. The holidays got in the way.


I bought the gold at eBay and paid with paypal.

http://www.ebay.com/itm/151402815340

I don't know why but gold is less at eBay than at jmbullion or goldmart, while eBay silver is more. I just accept it and buy where the cost is least.


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## snoozy

I'm looking at the silver prices again, and I see that it closed at $18.26, $3 more than it was going for in Dec. If I had bought then, in one month I would have made 20% gain. Now I'm going to try to actually buy some. Big move for me. Because I think the Voice of Reason is right. 

Now, I notice that some bars at goldmart are .79 over spot, others .99, others 1.29. Why the difference?


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## Nevada

snoozy said:


> Now, I notice that some bars at goldmart are .79 over spot, others .99, others 1.29. Why the difference?


Some pay shipping and some don't, while some simply charge more.

Note that the NTR (79 cents over spot) bars are not LBMA approved. Likewise, Sunshine & Golden State Mint are not LBMA approved. Engelhard used to be LBMA but not anymore. The only LBMA silver bars goldmart has are the Johnson Matthey bars.

What you're trying to do is make sure that your bars will be taken at face value when you sell. You don't want your bars to be drilled and your settlement check discounted for an assay fee. LBMA bars are accepted like money anywhere in the world.

But a lot of silver stackers collect non-LBMA silver. That's up to you. I only buy JM bars. They're not that much more.


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## Oxankle

I think you are right in buying only the good delivery bars. If you need money in a hurry you do not want to have to wait on an assay. You can take a J. M. bar to any dealer and sell on the spot.


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## snoozy

And you all recommend bars over coins? ANd small to medium, rather than, say, a kilo or 10oz bar?


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## Nevada

snoozy said:


> And you all recommend bars over coins? ANd small to medium, rather than, say, a kilo or 10oz bar?


I don't feel really strongly one way or the other about bars vs coins, I just want LBMA approved silver for as little premium as possible. Like bars, most coins aren't LBMA approved. But some coins are government minted, which is just as good. The problem is that silver eagles & maple leafs usually have a $3 to $4 per ounce premium.

I don't happen to own any bullion rounds.


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## sniper69

Nevada said:


> I bought the gold at eBay and paid with paypal.
> 
> http://www.ebay.com/itm/151402815340
> 
> I don't know why but gold is less at eBay than at jmbullion or goldmart, while eBay silver is more. I just accept it and buy where the cost is least.



Do you prefer one type of gold bar over another (example instanbul, suisse, German, or American)? I ask as I see some PAMP Suisse that are the same total amount and purity for a cheaper price than the link above. 

Curious....


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## Nevada

sniper69 said:


> Do you prefer one type of gold bar over another (example instanbul, suisse, German, or American)? I ask as I see some PAMP Suisse that are the same total amount and purity for a cheaper price than the link above.
> 
> Curious....


Again, I go for LBMA bars (the list is not the same as silver). I've bought PAMP Suisse bars when the premium isn't too high, but I prefer Istanbul Gold Refinery (IGR) bars because of low premium. PAMP Suisse & IGR are both LBMA approved. Credit Suisse, Perth Mint, & Valcambi bars are also LBMA, but have a higher premium than IGR. Any of those hallmarks are ok if the price is right.


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## sniper69

Nevada said:


> Again, I go for LBMA bars (the list is not the same as silver). I've bought PAMP Suisse bars when the premium isn't too high, but I prefer Istanbul Gold Refinery (IGR) bars because of low premium. PAMP Suisse & IGR are both LBMA approved. Credit Suisse, Perth Mint, & Valcambi bars are also LBMA, but have a higher premium than IGR. Any of those hallmarks are ok if the price is right.


thanks for the information, that is good to know. I learned something new today.


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## Randy Rooster

With the world wide slow down in economies and the surge of the dollar against foreign currencies I wonder if the price of silver will keep dropping - keeping in mind that about 40 % of silver demand is industrial and industries world wide are slowing - its sub $16 now. During the gloomiest days of the 2008 - 09 recession it bottomed out around $ 10. Wondering what some of the rest of you think.


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## Nevada

Randy Rooster said:


> With the world wide slow down in economies and the surge of the dollar against foreign currencies I wonder if the price of silver will keep dropping - keeping in mind that about 40 % of silver demand is industrial and industries world wide are slowing - its sub $16 now. During the gloomiest days of the 2008 - 09 recession it bottomed out around $ 10. Wondering what some of the rest of you think.


Silver is artificially depressed for paper silver trading purposes. I expect it to go lower, maybe to the $12 to $14 level. But I don't mind. It's a buying opportunity.


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## Roadking

Buy lead as well...:idea:

Matt


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## Nevada

Roadking said:


> Buy lead as well...


How does one invest in lead? Where do you keep it? Do you really expect the price of lead to do a moonshot?

I've thought of copper a few times but the premium on fine copper bars is way too high to make a profit. Keep in mind that copper is trading in the $2.60 to $2.70 per pound range right now.

http://www.jmbullion.com/copper/copper-bars/

But I've never seen lead investment bars.


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## sniper69

Nevada said:


> How does one invest in lead? Where do you keep it? Do you really expect the price of lead to do a moonshot?
> 
> I've thought of copper a few times but the premium on fine copper bars is way too high to make a profit. Keep in mind that copper is trading in the $2.60 to $2.70 per pound range right now.
> 
> http://www.jmbullion.com/copper/copper-bars/
> 
> But I've never seen lead investment bars.


I'm assuming the comment about investing in lead is meant towards buying more ammo, or ammo components. Of course I could be wrong.


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## Nevada

sniper69 said:


> I'm assuming the comment about investing in lead is meant towards buying more ammo, or ammo components. Of course I could be wrong.


:smack

Yes, I'm certain you are correct. Must be that I lost an hour of sleep last night due to the time change. :happy2:


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## plowjockey

I know people on Government assistance, who line up weekly at the Walmart ammo case, waiting for the delivery truck to arrive.

Apparently they know something, Warren Buffet, does not.


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## unregistered353870

There is a big market for scrap lead. It has quite a few uses other than ammo. Batteries are a big one. Wheel balancing weights are another. It usually runs in the 75 cent to a dollar a pound range, but has been well over a dollar a few times because of shortages. I don't think actual lead is a particularly good investment. Ammo, maybe...but you don't profit until you sell, and I'm keeping mine. It's not an investment for me.


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## DEKE01

jtbrandt said:


> There is a big market for scrap lead. It has quite a few uses other than ammo. Batteries are a big one. Wheel balancing weights are another. It usually runs in the 75 cent to a dollar a pound range, but has been well over a dollar a few times because of shortages. I don't think actual lead is a particularly good investment. Ammo, maybe...but you don't profit until you sell, and I'm keeping mine. It's not an investment for me.


I used to collect lead 50 pieces at a time in cute little boxes. But lately I've been getting rid of it all over my farm, about 124 grains at a time.


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## Roadking

The old "beans and bullets" theory. Yeah, silver and gold have historically proved themselves.
Sword, and plows have as well. Just a matter of knowing how to leverage it all to your advantage. A bit of this, a bit of that...and a bit of things that folks haven't even considered can be comforting...let it sink in...

Matt


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## Roadking

plowjockey said:


> I know people on Government assistance, who line up weekly at the Walmart ammo case, waiting for the delivery truck to arrive.
> 
> Apparently they know something, Warren Buffet, does not.


well, considering that my buddy and I, plus our kids burned thru about 300 rounds tonight for target practice, at $0.05 per round, and replacement cost is $0.15 ...try math/inflation. It all adds up. :hobbyhors 

Matt


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## unregistered353870

DEKE01 said:


> I used to collect lead 50 pieces at a time in cute little boxes. But lately I've been getting rid of it all over my farm, about 124 grains at a time.


I wouldn't admit that...the EPA might take over your farm to save the earth from all the lead that's leaching into the water from your bullets...but at least you're not shooting down your well like I saw somebody suggest in another thread.


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## unregistered353870

Roadking said:


> well, considering that my buddy and I, plus our kids burned thru about 300 rounds tonight for target practice, at $0.05 per round, and replacement cost is $0.15 ...try math/inflation. It all adds up. :hobbyhors
> 
> Matt


That's why I don't shoot much. I just can't bring myself to toss bullets around when I know it will cost me a lot more to replace them. I have enough probably for two lifetimes, but the cheapskate in me still makes it tough to shoot for fun. At least they're not silver bullets...those would be a few dollars each...save them for the werewolves and vampires.


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## DEKE01

jtbrandt said:


> I wouldn't admit that...the EPA might take over your farm to save the earth from all the lead that's leaching into the water from your bullets...but at least you're not shooting down your well like I saw somebody suggest in another thread.


I hear you, but sometimes a pine cone needs to be killed. It's a game I play to keep my skills up. As I'm walking along, on the 3rd step, turn around, find the 3rd closest pine cone and draw, if it is butt end don't shoot, anything other than butt end and I have to make it jump, hopefully in one shot. I don't know if I'll ever really be attacked by a cone wielding pine tree, but I'll be ready. 

As to silver, I think it has a bit lower to run because every time Yellen talks about stopping the artificially low interest rates, as happened 2 weeks ago, PM falls. If the economy was to actually strengthen to the point of the FED raising rates, PMs could take another tumble. 

My SWAG is that silver bottoms somewhere in the $13 - 14 range. I'll be buying soon. Which means, based on my track record, that silver will fall to $10. :hair

But I don't really care if I buy at a perfect bottom. It is all about the averages.


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## mmoetc

I'm still curious about the optimism about silver prices and the focus on the five year window. If you look back even a bit further and disregard the run up in prices caused by the unique circumstances of the Great Recession it looks like silver today is trading at the high end of its historical averages. There seems to be much more opportunity to regress to the mean than there is for explosive growth.


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## DEKE01

mmoetc said:


> I'm still curious about the optimism about silver prices and the focus on the five year window. If you look back even a bit further and disregard the run up in prices caused by the unique circumstances of the Great Recession it looks like silver today is trading at the high end of its historical averages. There seems to be much more opportunity to regress to the mean than there is for explosive growth.


I'm in PM for the long haul, so I don't have a 5 year window. So don't confuse my position with Nevada's. He may or may not be right about the market on the basis of supply and in ground reserves. 

My optimism for PM is because of my pessimism about the US$. I think the $ will continue to do well against other fiat currencies because of the whole flight to quality issue. But if you look at the chart of money supply below, you'll see that if PMs maintain parity vs money supply, PM has lots of room to the upside. There are those who will argue that thru the magic of modern economics, the value of the coin is no longer tied the PM that no longer backs paper. I'm not one of them. 

I think the value of PM is an economic law. And like the law of gravity, you can jump as high as you can, fly in a plane, or rocket into spacel in an effort to defeat gravity. You can win for a short time or a long time, but sooner or later, the law catches up to you. 

The only way to change the law of PM value is to change the paradigm. The reason the Washington Monument is topped with Aluminum is because that metal was precious at the time. Then technology changed the paradigm, we discovered more sources of bauxite, we discovered easier smelting methods, the supply grew exponentially and the value plummeted. The same sort of thing could happen with silver and will happen to a degree because if silver goes 10x, manufacturers will find ways to quit using it thereby increasing supply in relation to demand. But no one I've heard of sees that happening soon.


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## unregistered353870

mmoetc said:


> I'm still curious about the optimism about silver prices and the focus on the five year window. If you look back even a bit further and disregard the run up in prices caused by the unique circumstances of the Great Recession it looks like silver today is trading at the high end of its historical averages. There seems to be much more opportunity to regress to the mean than there is for explosive growth.


I see the upside not as a strictly precious metal play, but a play on industrial use. Industry needs silver. The supply is not finite. Some say a shortage is imminent. Maybe they're right. All the speculation on it as an investment distorts the market enough that I have no idea about that side of it. There is so much paper silver floating around, though, that it seems likely there will be a day of reckoning when that paper gets called and the price reverts to something in the neighborhood of a legitimate value. If there's more paper than real silver, that value is higher than the current price. I strongly suspect there is more paper than actual silver, knowing the little I know about Wall Street and the slightly more I know about precious metals mining. I am not near as confident as Nevada that it will go over $100, but my hunch is significant upside potential.


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## plowjockey

Roadking said:


> well, considering that my buddy and I, plus our kids burned thru about 300 rounds tonight for target practice, at $0.05 per round, and replacement cost is $0.15 ...try math/inflation. It all adds up. :hobbyhors
> 
> Matt


LOL Inflation?

One has to simply holler "Obama is going to take all of our guns!" and the ammo flies off the shelf at record high prices.

You are correct, it does add up.

We can all stock up cheap when the _bullet market_ crashes in 2016, as Obama will be gone.


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