# Guesstimates on migrating zombie threat from urban centers



## hintonlady (Apr 22, 2007)

Okay this idea is something I have been meditating on and a sort of spin off from another thread. In the event of major breakdown in infrastructure, regardless of origin I am wondering what your OPINIONS are on migrating zombie patterns and level of potential danger.

This is of course hypothetical. Please share your reasoning and rationale with OPINIONS (not for the sake of argument folks, please) but because I want to understand the information you use to make a conclusion. (helps it make more sense instead of just because)

Lets have a little fun with this..........



I live about an hour drive from Saint Louis which is a major concern. The things I see as beneficial to me keeping my own safety net are:

*By the time zombies wake up to reality precious fuel will be limited
*Many zombies will burn said fuel probably at a stand still in traffic as law enforcement will be taxed and unable to deal with accidents caused by panic
*Traffic bottle neck on bridges will reduce vehicle progression over Mississippi. From my understanding few could survive swim across, so probably limited to foot traffic on highway.
*Zombies may stay home without feasible plan of action. Hungry at home may feel better than walking into unknown.
*Lots of folks with guns will burn ammo trying to get control in city, like in Katrina.
*Country is spread out so paths zombies choose may be random and just an odds game? (or will the stay near roads, train lines, rivers?)


My potential weaknesses (feel free to add to):

*Dang close to city anyway. Not sure how far average person with âworld on backâ can be expected to travel
*what will be their morale and physical condition upon arrival?
*Of those who have basic plan, how far will they wander? How many âpreparedâ zombies who are still city based will make it and what sized radius?
*what basic assumptions will they make about farms, based on stereotypes and no actual practical experience? (do they think we all have chickens and corn cob pipes? Do we actually look appealing off in the âwildernessâ?)
*Does living near a river add to problems? Near a county highway? (2 lane) etc.
*What about nearby rural small towns with no homestead lifestyle? (mini cities basically)



What do you guys think? How about your home?
Any experience in difficult times to see how civilians react and respond?
Consider large scale issues that overshadow Katrina so no potential national guard or red cross help......

How does the city zombie mind work in chaos? Other countries with similar problems to compare?

Thanks


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## Kevingr (Mar 10, 2006)

I don't believe that there would be a mass exodus from the cities. The Government will step in to help in some way and most people will expect the Government to step in and take care of them. Leaving the city will be foreign to many people, I know people who have never left the 7 county Mpls/St Paul area, even people who have never owned a car a rely solely on public transportation. Those types of people would never leave their comfort zone in the even of a major catastrophy, they'll be scared enough right where they are.

Now, there will be some people who may step out, those people who already get out of the city to hunt or fish, or get back to nature. Those types of people are comfortable in the city or the country, but they'll stick with family. If most of the their family is in the city that's where they'll stay. You then have another group of people who moved to the city from the country and most of their family is in the country. They'll move back to the country and probably add to the communities in a positive way.

Then of course there's the groups that will band together and get a truck, pool their gas resources and come out to the country and take what they want. That's where the people in the local rural communities will need to work together and help each other, in other words load up on ammo and watch out for each other. Of course, the people living closer to the large metropolitan areas will be hit first. Those more rural may not have anything but the occassional passerby because who will have fuel?

That's my opionion, but I'm a half glass full kind of guy.


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## TexasArtist (May 4, 2003)

I do agree a good bit on what you two are saying but I'm also thinking that the "city dwellers" will be slowed from leaveing because the government would probably put troops all over and not allow to many people to leave. Look what they did during katrina. Now if there is an outbreak of some sort I especially see them holding everyone "in their place" until they are either tagged or bagged .


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## northergardener (Dec 12, 2007)

I read something once that said you should live farther from the big cities than a hungry person could walk in 3 days. I'm afraid I don't remember the exact reasoning behind that statement, but it always stuck in my mind. Maybe it means that a person without food won't be able to make any farther than that. 
I don't know how far the average person (hungry and not in the best shape) could walk in 3 days. Let's say the average person can walk 4 miles per hour. If a person could walk for 10 hours, that would be 40 miles per day, right? It seems to me like that is overly optimistic, but that would mean 120 miles from a city is the "safe" zone.
Now if a person has some food, and if they have bicycles, that would give them more range.
I would expect people to stick the the highways and train lines first, and there may be natural geographic features that would push people one way or another. If I was hungry and in the city, I would want to go to where I think there would be food. Maybe to the suburban areas first, going for the warehouse stores, etc, and then to farms. I think a farm visible from the highway or train tracks could be in trouble.


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## hillsidedigger (Sep 19, 2006)

A hungry Zombie can walk 50 miles in 3 days, a hundred miles in a week. On a bicycle, 50 miles in one day.


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## JGex (Dec 27, 2005)

Kevingr said:


> I don't believe that there would be a mass exodus from the cities. The Government will step in to help in some way and most people will expect the Government to step in and take care of them. Leaving the city will be foreign to many people, I know people who have never left the 7 county Mpls/St Paul area, even people who have never owned a car a rely solely on public transportation. *Those types of people would never leave their comfort zone in the even of a major catastrophy, they'll be scared enough right where they are.*
> 
> Now, there will be some people who may step out, those people who already get out of the city to hunt or fish, or get back to nature. Those types of people are comfortable in the city or the country, but they'll stick with family. If most of the their family is in the city that's where they'll stay. You then have another group of people who moved to the city from the country and most of their family is in the country. They'll move back to the country and probably add to the communities in a positive way.
> 
> ...


Wow. Thank you for saying that. I've been saying it for 2 years in regards to NOLA and Katrina and everyone acts like I'm talking in Latin.


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## JGex (Dec 27, 2005)

We live an hour north of Atlanta about a mile off the interstate... it's certainly not as far out as I would like, but it's what I have to work with. We've been working on our house, but only on the inside.... we're gonna finish that and see where things are economically. Right now, anyone looking at said house would think we ain't got indoor plumbing, so we may just leave it like that for a while.


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## Cyngbaeld (May 20, 2004)

I expect most people are going to stick close to the cities in hopes that someone will show up to help them. People tend to migrate to cities in hard times rather than to the country.


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## Gary in ohio (May 11, 2002)

I dont think the masses will leave an area unless that area is the problem. If you have a chemical spill then they are going to get out. If its just a general collapse then no. Those that have family out of town might but most are not going to leave an area for an unknown area.


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## Jerngen (May 22, 2006)

We live about five + hours (in good driving conditions) from the nearest major city. We're up in one of the few remaining isolated wilderness areas of the continental U.S. so I'm not too concerned about the zombie hordes.

* I consider a major city as having a population of more then 40K


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## Freeholder (Jun 19, 2004)

Read something recently about Germany's bout of hyperinflation -- people with farms had food and survived all right. People in town were in trouble. (Presumably any town where folks didn't have enough land to grow their own food.) Young men from the towns would go out at night and raid the farms to get food. 

I expect that more or less the same thing will happen here if people get that hungry and food just isn't available. Problem is, most of our cities are so big that they are far from any food-producing areas. So it might be the farmers around the smaller cities and towns that would have the biggest problem. 

I haven't seen many of the 'doomer' end of the world type of movies (I seldom see any movies at all), but I wouldn't be surprised if they will have given some ideas to the young gang members in the cities....

Our biggest issues are going to come if there is a breakdown of law and order. As long as that holds, I don't think we are going to see too much of the 'mutant zombie attack' type of problem, at least not outside of the cities. But if law and order breaks down, then even people who are normally well-behaved are going to do anything they think they can get away with. People can come up with some unbelievably evil ideas (and put them into practice: Pol Pot; Lenin; Hitler; and so on ad infinitum ad nauseum); that old sin nature is very close to the surface in most people, whether they want to believe it or not.

Kathleen


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## mamajohnson (Nov 27, 2002)

Jerngen said:


> We live about five + hours (in good driving conditions) from the nearest major city. We're up in one of the few remaining isolated wilderness areas of the continental U.S. so I'm not too concerned about the zombie hordes.
> 
> * I consider a major city as having a population of more then 40K


You read my mind! I was just sitting here wondering how big a major city is.

Where we are, the largest cities are 1 hour away, minor cities, 6-30 miles.
Just the other day, my DH looked at me and said "we are too close to town"
I think he is right.
But, nothing we can do about it right this min. so...

In pondering, and looking at Katrina and the Rita hurricane also, I don't think there will be an exodus from the city. Maybe from the smaller towns. But, I don't know. 
I think in the large cities there will be the "Uncle Sam will come save us" mentality - like Katrina.
Then in the smaller cities there will be the "get off our butts and help ourselves" mentality - like Southern Texas after Rita. Not sure if that means folks will migrate. Logically thinking, they would go from smaller towns to larger ones, looking for more resources, not to the countryside. Most people don't equate farms with resources. Just with poor farmers. Think Ma and Pa Kettle.....

The best we can do is not look like we have much, hunker down and hide what we can. We have lots of woods around us, and are about 1/2 mile off the 2 lane highway, that may just save our bacon. (and eggs, and milk......)


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## Dr. Mom (Jan 13, 2008)

'Mutant zombie attack' ? Hmmm, I worry more about a 'mutant relatives/friends attack'. You know the ones. Everybody who preps knows someone who doesn't prep. I worry about THEM showing up on my doorstep. They KNOW where I live. The zombies don't.  Better put out a bigger garden. :croc:


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## Guest (Mar 8, 2008)

I'm thinking that a small number of people will head for the country, but most will hole themselves up in their houses or apartments.


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## JGex (Dec 27, 2005)

Dr. Mom said:


> 'Mutant zombie attack' ? Hmmm, I worry more about a 'mutant relatives/friends attack'. You know the ones. Everybody who preps knows someone who doesn't prep. I worry about THEM showing up on my doorstep. They KNOW where I live. The zombies don't.  Better put out a bigger garden. :croc:


No doubt... I'd hate to have to turn someone away, so if we had extra fresh garden stuff, I'd probably share, but I don't want ANYone, even relatives knowing I have a back stock of anything. Especially when we have been so careful with our money while they were out maxxing out their credit cards on Play Stations and big screen TVs or whatever else crap they really couldn't afford. 

Friends and relatives are the tough ones. Saying "no" to strangers isn't as tough, but can be when there are kids involved.


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## JGex (Dec 27, 2005)

ladycat said:


> I'm thinking that a small number of people will head for the country, but most will hole themselves up in their houses or apartments.


Someone came on here a couple of weeks ago talking about how their "gansta" granddaughter & her boyfriend had taken a survival course so when the "time came" they would know how to survive when they hit the rural areas to take what they needed. 

I imagine they will not be met with open arms.

:stars:


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## WolfWalksSoftly (Aug 13, 2004)

I would imagine people will stick with what they know and what they are used to, unless they have some type of training to revert to. Either way, I'm in good shape.


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## Guest (Mar 8, 2008)

JGex said:


> Someone came on here a couple of weeks ago talking about how their "gansta" granddaughter & her boyfriend had taken a survival course so when the "time came" they would know how to survive when they hit the rural areas to take what they needed.
> 
> I imagine they will not be met with open arms.
> 
> :stars:


Not very many people have taken such a course, and if they try to use tricks they've picked up out of watching movies.... well, those movies aren't very realistic. People will end up getting theirselves shot.

Most people aren't in very good physical shape, and aren't going to start walking to the country until they're already weak from hunger anyway, so they just aren't going to be able to get very far.


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## hfwarner3 (Feb 19, 2008)

I personally think most people would sit and place and wait for "Mama the Federal Government" to come sweep up her little babies and take care of them. It disgusted me to look at Katrina and see how many people lived in one of the most notorious flood zones in the WORLD and they had no evacuation ABILITY, let alone plan.

I lived in St. Pete, Florida for a year. It is 3 feet below sea level. I not only had an evacuation plan, I made sure my elderly neighbors were taken care of too. I was 22 years old, but at least I knew that hurricane + 3 feet below sea level = get out of town. Amazingly, though, I was in the minority ... big time.


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## JGex (Dec 27, 2005)

ladycat said:


> Not very many people have taken such a course, and if they try to use tricks they've picked up out of watching movies.... well, those movies aren't very realistic. People will end up getting theirselves shot.
> 
> Most people aren't in very good physical shape, and aren't going to start walking to the country until they're already weak from hunger anyway, so they just aren't going to be able to get very far.


Yeah, my brother once told me while we were having a similar conversation, "I'm not worried about people out of the city. They have no idea the determination of someone who is willing to sit in a tree stand for 4 days eating Vienna Sausage and drinking Budweiser waiting for a deer. And they have no idea how big my scope is."


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## JGex (Dec 27, 2005)

hfwarner3 said:


> I personally think most people would sit and place and wait for "Mama the Federal Government" to come sweep up her little babies and take care of them. It disgusted me to look at Katrina and see how many people lived in one of the most notorious flood zones in the WORLD and they had no evacuation ABILITY, let alone plan.
> 
> I lived in St. Pete, Florida for a year. It is 3 feet below sea level. I not only had an evacuation plan, I made sure my elderly neighbors were taken care of too. I was 22 years old, but at least I knew that hurricane + 3 feet below sea level = get out of town. Amazingly, though, I was in the minority ... big time.


During natural disasters, people's financial situations can prevent them from leaving their homes... it's expensive to evacuate for several days if you have to stay in a hotel room.


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## hfwarner3 (Feb 19, 2008)

JGex said:


> During natural disasters, people's financial situations can prevent them from leaving their homes... it's expensive to evacuate for several days if you have to stay in a hotel room.


True. I was a 22 year old putting himself through college with part-time work and the GI Bill. I was renting a room from an older woman. My car was paid for at least. I still managed to keep 7 1/2 - 10 gallons of gas in the garage. I still managed to keep a portable hammock, a case of MREs, blankets, a change of clothes, firearm with extra ammo, and a case of bottled water in the trunk. I had $140 in $20 bills shrink-wrapped around a roll of quarters stashed as emergency money. With that, I could stay in a hotel for 4 nights if the weather was really bad or stay in a campground for a few weeks. I also had family in Atlanta, so I could drive there. If Atlanta was effected too, I had friends in Fayetteville, NC. I was all a matter of how far I was driving, but I had someplace to go and a means to get there. 

My buddy Brooks only had a motorcycle, so the evacuation plan was for him to show up with the music, a change of clothes, and some cash and he could hitch a ride with me. 

The point is that ANYONE can find a way out IF they do some work, save some money, spend a little money on the right stuff, and coordinate with others BEFORE something happens.


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## TexasArtist (May 4, 2003)

one group I think would give th emost problems is the gang calling them selves ms 13. They are made up of mostly illegals and not only do they have the common everyday gang vermin in their mix they have started to recruit newer members and they tell them not to get inked. They are having them get into the military to leanr military warfare and also they have been recruiting younger hispanics that work in banks and such.
Something in the back of my mind says they plan on grabbing a few bucks here and there outta bank accounts then splitting to south america. If TSHTF then they will be able to take over certain neighborhoods or areas thanks to their buddies new military training:help:


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## hfwarner3 (Feb 19, 2008)

By the way - the money and a roll of quarters thing was an idea given to me by a jumpmaster friend in the 82nd Airborne that I have always kept with me. Even today a have a tube of silver American eagles and $200 shrink-wrapped around a roll of quarters in my bug-out bag.


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## hfwarner3 (Feb 19, 2008)

TexasArtist said:


> one group I think would give th emost problems is the gang calling them selves ms 13. They are made up of mostly illegals and not only do they have the common everyday gang vermin in their mix they have started to recruit newer members and they tell them not to get inked. They are having them get into the military to leanr military warfare and also they have been recruiting younger hispanics that work in banks and such.
> Something in the back of my mind says they plan on grabbing a few bucks here and there outta bank accounts then splitting to south america. If TSHTF then they will be able to take over certain neighborhoods or areas thanks to their buddies new military training:help:


Well, us veterans and our good ole boy buddies tend to stick together too. Armed gangs of that sort might take over urban areas, but they would be out of their element and territory in the valleys of North Georgia. My bug out area already has its own "private security force" since the sheriff lives in the valley about a half-mile down from my in-laws. If the SHTF, I think most of us would be deputized officially or unofficially if the Sheriff needed that much security in the valley.


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## Andy Nonymous (Aug 20, 2005)

[ADD Moment] Ooooh, look!! JGex's Tin Foil Hat has rabbit ears! :bouncy: [/ADD Moment]

I dunno. Is it possible that a Zombie hoard wanders through here? Perhaps. More likely the first wave will be the starving neighbors in about a week. Right after that, the Nat Guard (or foreign troops), collecting people to be 'taken care of', and confiscating any "hoards" found for redistribution to appease the hungry masses. If anyone makes it through those two waves undiscovered and unmolested, and if the currency continues to collapse in the world market, the chance of law and order surviving intact beyond about 2 months are really slim, so the threat of 'rovers' escaped from the 'centers' as provisions get slimmer or as disease breaks out increase. Hard to figure with any certainty, as I'm sure there are thousands of variables in play, such as time of year, and whether the US is at war, with whom, and whether that is on US soil. A "fluke" occurrence may change the outcome for one household, or one area; either for the better or worse. As the old tale goes "...for want of the battle, the war was lost, all for the want of a horse shoe nail". 

Meanwhile, I make it a point to have not much of nothin' worth having. If someone wants my outdated can of soup, or cheap sardines, it'll just make it more necessary to start harvesting squirrels and other varmints from the back yard. As is, I'm letting them keep their populations up.


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## hfwarner3 (Feb 19, 2008)

Now, when we say Zombies ... are we talking about the return from the dead and eat your brains zombies? :baby04:


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## JGex (Dec 27, 2005)

Andy Nonymous said:


> [ADD Moment] Ooooh, look!! JGex's Tin Foil Hat has rabbit ears! :bouncy: [/ADD Moment]


Those aren't ears... they are cleverly disguised reception devices for the tin foil hat.... AKA antennae!

:nana:


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## uyk7 (Dec 1, 2002)

"I consider a major city as having a population of more then 40K"

I consider any town over 500 to be a major city.


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## hfwarner3 (Feb 19, 2008)

Heck, I can't even figure out what that things is on JGex's head in the icon photo and now we are customizing our tin foil hats?!?!?


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## virtualco (Feb 3, 2006)

hfwarner3 said:


> I personally think most people would sit and place and wait for "Mama the Federal Government" to come sweep up her little babies and take care of them. It disgusted me to look at Katrina and see how many people lived in one of the most notorious flood zones in the WORLD and they had no evacuation ABILITY, let alone plan.
> 
> I lived in St. Pete, Florida for a year. It is 3 feet below sea level. I not only had an evacuation plan, I made sure my elderly neighbors were taken care of too. I was 22 years old, but at least I knew that hurricane + 3 feet below sea level = get out of town. Amazingly, though, I was in the minority ... big time.


I also lived in St Pete, however when I lived there it was 44 ft above sea level.

http://www.city-data.com/city/St.-Petersburg-Florida.html

If you are going to get all emotional with us, please state the facts correctly.


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## FourDeuce (Jun 27, 2002)

"I imagine they will not be met with open arms."

I'd bet they'd be met with arms, though.:bash:
I think most people facing the choice of starving where they are or going somewhere else will probably try somewhere else.:baby04:


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## hfwarner3 (Feb 19, 2008)

virtualco said:


> I also lived in St Pete, however when I lived there it was 44 ft above sea level.
> 
> http://www.city-data.com/city/St.-Petersburg-Florida.html
> 
> If you are going to get all emotional with us, please state the facts correctly.


6001 19th Street NE ... 3 ft BELOW sea level. Go pay a visit and let me know if someone trucked in 47 feet of new soil.

If you are going to question someone on facts, realize that the AVERAGE elevation of a city means nothing to everyone who is off the center of the bell curve.


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## AngieM2 (May 10, 2002)

hf - I think I must have lived close to that address a 100 years ago...

All I remember about my time in St Pete, is the q-tip drivers, landcruisers with no turn signals, great fruit in the grocery store, palmeto bugs, and massive doses of water bugs in the duplex - UGH. Oh - cemetaries with lots of flowers on 49th street. 

But -3 or +44, doesn't make a real difference. One good sized wave and all are WET!

Angie


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## rickd203 (Sep 11, 2005)

Kevingr said:


> I don't believe that there would be a mass exodus from the cities. The Government will step in to help in some way and most people will expect the Government to step in and take care of them. Leaving the city will be foreign to many people, I know people who have never left the 7 county Mpls/St Paul area, even people who have never owned a car a rely solely on public transportation. Those types of people would never leave their comfort zone in the even of a major catastrophy, they'll be scared enough right where they are.
> 
> Now, there will be some people who may step out, those people who already get out of the city to hunt or fish, or get back to nature. Those types of people are comfortable in the city or the country, but they'll stick with family. If most of the their family is in the city that's where they'll stay. You then have another group of people who moved to the city from the country and most of their family is in the country. They'll move back to the country and probably add to the communities in a positive way.
> 
> ...



You left out my group:

I live squashed between Boston and NYC and I don't like my odds of surviving if I'm still here after the SHTF. I don't have family here so I don't have that reason to stay here. I'm going to try again to sell my house and move out to the midwest in a few months. I'm not certain that it will sell but I want to be ready to bug out even if it doesn't sell. 

I have been collecting the tools, gear, seeds and foodstuffs that I would need to take with me. I can trap and fish and have a fairly good knowledge of edible wild plants. I have a few firearms that are mainly for self-defense. I prefer traps and snares because they make very little noise to draw anyone's attention. 

My foodstuffs are mainly dehydrated because they weigh less than canned goods and are easier to travel with. I have a good quality water purifier and replacement cartridges. I should be able to treat and drink almost any water that I can find. 

As a child, I lived within walking distance of a state forest. It was my sanctuary from the stress of city life. I camped there whenever I could. Even winter snow was not enough to keep me home. I still had to learn evasion and camoflage to avoid detection from the local thugs that would sometimes drive through the forest. 

My Grandfather had a small farm so I learned how to handle and care for livestock. Every fall, I go to as many country fairs as I can to talk to the local farmers. I always learn something new at each fair.

I'm not heading to to the country to steal anyone's supplies. I would hope to find a small community or family where I could work for food and shelter. I just hope you don't shoot first and ask questions later


:cowboy:


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

> The point is that ANYONE can find a way out IF *they do some work, save some money, spend a little money on the right stuff*, and coordinate with others BEFORE something happens.


Judging from the college students in the town nearest me, I'd say that eliminates 90% of them off the top


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## radiofish (Mar 30, 2007)

I moved from 20 feet above mean sea level, to now at about 1800 feet above sea level here on the hilltop. That is according to my GPS receiver and the topo maps. I can look down over the bay and ocean from lower on the property. So I guess I have a front row seat for the tsunami rolling over the lowland coastal property....

Folks will tend to take the path of least resistance. I live way up the hill and the last house down a private road in a heavily wooded area. The roving bands of radioactive mutant zombies will have to get past my neighbors first.


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## tamsam (May 12, 2006)

For all. Do you know how long it will take any of our government angencies to get put in place when tshtf? Some figures say -Local you can't count on if large scale- state 48 hours and they do the biggest cities first- fed 72 hours if you are lucky and they also go to the big cities first. Us good folk out here in the country are more or less on our own. This is why everyone needs a plan and I urge all to get some sort of training to help each other. Sam


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## Randy Rooster (Dec 14, 2004)

Theres a large university in the nearest city to me so, I just hope that what we get out my way are college girl sex crazed zombies and I have to fight them off.


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## ozarkcat (Sep 8, 2004)

Kevingr said:


> The Government will step in to help in some way and most people will expect the Government to step in and take care of them.


Right, like they did with Katrina? I think there are fewer and fewer people with that mindset after all the video that came out after New Orleans was hit.


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## Guest (Mar 9, 2008)

ozarkcat said:


> Right, like they did with Katrina? I think there are fewer and fewer people with that mindset after all the video that came out after New Orleans was hit.


Katrina was an excellent wakeup call for the populace. Many of those who weren't listening before are taking us TFH'ers dead serious now.


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## hfwarner3 (Feb 19, 2008)

Hey, and with Katrina, the government was TRYING to actually help.


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## hintonlady (Apr 22, 2007)

JGex said:


> Someone came on here a couple of weeks ago talking about how their "gansta" granddaughter & her boyfriend had taken a survival course so when the "time came" they would know how to survive when they hit the rural areas to take what they needed.
> 
> I imagine they will not be met with open arms.
> 
> :stars:


Not to mention the fact that deer season in my area is like a national holiday. they almost have to shut the schools down.


Never underestimate a corn fed country boy who knows how to sit in a tree with a high powered and scoped rifle. Don't even add in they know their ground and woods like they know their wives.

Those gangstas can come on over with those AK 47's and handguns, we can use the extra weapons, lol


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## hintonlady (Apr 22, 2007)

rickd203 said:


> You left out my group:
> 
> I live squashed between Boston and NYC and I don't like my odds of surviving if I'm still here after the SHTF. I don't have family here so I don't have that reason to stay here. I'm going to try again to sell my house and move out to the midwest in a few months. I'm not certain that it will sell but I want to be ready to bug out even if it doesn't sell.
> 
> ...


I'm loving this idea and often wondered how well a few extra hands to work and protect would be.

Only problem is, trust is hard won in these types of situations.......... bummer too.


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## Spinner (Jul 19, 2003)

JGex said:


> Someone came on here a couple of weeks ago talking about how their "gansta" granddaughter & her boyfriend had taken a survival course so when the "time came" they would know how to survive when they hit the rural areas to take what they needed.
> 
> I imagine they will not be met with open arms.
> 
> :stars:


That was probably a post of mine you're referring to. It was neices, not granddaughters (I corrected the original post.) Lots of scary stuff happening. The girls told me the gang has sent members to survival school, they are trying to get members into jobs at places they target as "desirable hits" if something catastrophic happens (think of this: gang members in pharmacies, food supply warehouses, ammo stores, fuel delivery trucks, etc.), some members join survival sites online to learn more. The girls are not the brightest bulbs and I consider it very stupid of them to open their mouths and repeat what I'm sure is suppose to be private information (for that reason I will not disclose their location.) It sounds like they are extremely organized. Hopefully all gangs are not this organized.


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## hintonlady (Apr 22, 2007)

Spinner said:


> That was probably a post of mine you're referring to. It was neices, not granddaughters (I corrected the original post.) Lots of scary stuff happening. The girls told me the gang has sent members to survival school, they are trying to get members into jobs at places they target as "desirable hits" if something catastrophic happens (think of this: gang members in pharmacies, food supply warehouses, ammo stores, fuel delivery trucks, etc.), some members join survival sites online to learn more. The girls are not the brightest bulbs and I consider it very stupid of them to open their mouths and repeat what I'm sure is suppose to be private information (for that reason I will not disclose their location.) It sounds like they are extremely organized. Hopefully all gangs are not this organized.


That does sound organized and if they manage to pull it off.....I seriously doubt they would want a bucket of my corn or small clutch of eggs.

Planning big time hustles is ambitious, just ambitious enough to be far away from me.

Sounds even better.


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## JGex (Dec 27, 2005)

Spinner said:


> That was probably a post of mine you're referring to. It was neices, not granddaughters (I corrected the original post.) Lots of scary stuff happening. The girls told me the gang has sent members to survival school, they are trying to get members into jobs at places they target as "desirable hits" if something catastrophic happens (think of this: gang members in pharmacies, food supply warehouses, ammo stores, fuel delivery trucks, etc.), some members join survival sites online to learn more. The girls are not the brightest bulbs and I consider it very stupid of them to open their mouths and repeat what I'm sure is suppose to be private information (for that reason I will not disclose their location.) It sounds like they are extremely organized. Hopefully all gangs are not this organized.


Yup, it was your post. 

You know, just think how well-prepared these kids would be if they took it upon themselves not to make their plans at other's expense. They aren't the brightest bulbs in the box and those are usually the ones that go out first.

Chances are, if they have that little disregard for legalities now, the gang members will end up killing each other when things don't go exactly their way.

No disrespect to you Spinner, but these kids obviously weren't raised very well.


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## SkizzlePig (May 14, 2006)

I have a very dismal view of the aftermath of a massive collapse in the infrastructure.

Here's my take ... the bad guys get worse, the good guys get going and the others fall prey to the first two. I strongly believe that if the food and fuel supplies are in critically shortage, people will regress into their most animalistic survival instincts. I would suspect that this could cause about a 50% die off in urban core within the first three weeks.

Think about it ... all the people that completely breakdown when Starbucks gets their latte made with a little too much vanilla -or- someone "steals" their parking spot and makes them park three spots further, etc, etc. (Insert your own experience here) All of those people will just shrivel up and blow away.

As for zombies in the fields, I don't see that ... as long as we qualify how far out the "fields" are. If you live in a place, where people could (if they had to) plant, grow, butcher, etc their own food, you'll be okay. If you live in a place where people critically depend on the grocery store for today's meal, you could be in trouble.

Most Americans are too coddled, too mentally weak, too self-focused to survive a great collapse.

My two cents ...


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## Kevingr (Mar 10, 2006)

ladycat said:


> Katrina was an excellent wakeup call for the populace. Many of those who weren't listening before are taking us TFH'ers dead serious now.


Have you spent much time talking to people in large cities? (by large I mean hundreds of thousands of people) If you talk to those people at any great length you'll soon discover it's not them that have to prepare, the Government needs to learn from their mistakes during Katrina and not let that happen again. That's what the government is telling them too, keep 3 days of supplies on hand and we'll soon be there.


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## Guest (Mar 9, 2008)

Kevingr said:


> That's what the government is telling them too, keep 3 days of supplies on hand and we'll soon be there.


I know, it's a joke.

MOST people did not learn from Katrina, but *some* did.

I don't think nanny gubmint is capable of learning.


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## hfwarner3 (Feb 19, 2008)

hintonlady said:


> I'm loving this idea and often wondered how well a few extra hands to work and protect would be.
> 
> Only problem is, trust is hard won in these types of situations.......... bummer too.


That is why I am an advocate of building relationships NOW before the SHTF. I know my buddy Mike has horses and enough feed to both feed them and use some as currency. Weapons and food are taken care of. Power is still lighter than I would like but we are working on that. We have gotten to know the neighbors who have a dairy farm. We have chickens. The BIGGEST issue right now is water since the local water table is dropping from the drought and wells are drying up. 

If we could afford the land behind my in-laws, we would have running water on the property. As it is, no one lives on that land and it has been for sale for 12 years. The land takes a good 4x4 and driver who knows what he is doing to get up the mountain with only one small building site on the top of the mountain. Since the owner's want $100,000 for 19 acres of unusable land, we are hoping that no one buys it because we don't have $100,000 to spend on land you can't use for planting, grazing, or living.


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## Spinner (Jul 19, 2003)

JGex said:


> Yup, it was your post.
> 
> You know, just think how well-prepared these kids would be if they took it upon themselves not to make their plans at other's expense. They aren't the brightest bulbs in the box and those are usually the ones that go out first.
> 
> ...


 No disrepect was felt by me. They are in-laws, not blood relatives. This is not a branch of the family I'm proud of or close to. Every family is said to have a bad seed pop up every now and then. Those 2 girls are bad seeds in a good family. 

I hope you're right about the gang members killing each other off, but that kind of organization may make them a formidable enemy when the time comes. They are preppers, they are prepping on the dark side with evil intentions.


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## uyk7 (Dec 1, 2002)

"Most Americans are too coddled, too mentally weak, too self-focused to survive a great collapse."

I still think that there would be plenty of survivors anyway. Many ex-military people live in cities so they would probably survive a collapse as well.


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## FourDeuce (Jun 27, 2002)

Kevingr said:


> Have you spent much time talking to people in large cities? (by large I mean hundreds of thousands of people) If you talk to those people at any great length you'll soon discover it's not them that have to prepare, the Government needs to learn from their mistakes during Katrina and not let that happen again. That's what the government is telling them too, keep 3 days of supplies on hand and we'll soon be there.


If you look at the old Civil Defense budget and compare it to modern times, you'll quickly see that there isn't much effort(or money) being wasted today to prepare for the survival of the average citizen. They used to do comparisons of various governments showing how many dollars they spent per person. I don't think they even bother looking at that statistic any more.
Government now prepares for its own survival. The citizens will have to take care of themselves.:baby04:
Anyone depending on the government to take care of them might have a long wait(IF it ever happens).


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## diane (May 4, 2002)

hintonlady said:


> I'm loving this idea and often wondered how well a few extra hands to work and protect would be.
> 
> Only problem is, trust is hard won in these types of situations.......... bummer too.


I thought maybe when I pushed quote it would bring the whole post so there was a continuity but I guess not. You reaction was similar to mine. I would love to have someone with some skills know they had a safe place in bad times but the trust issue is a real big one. On another board we started small groups that lived near each other and were working on setting up face to face meetings when one group started talking about plans that put the board at risk and the MAGs were shut down.

I am really not a doom and gloomer, but it sure looks to me like we could have some pretty serious problems down the pike. I am kind of out of the loop here since the Michigan Militia had to go underground when some of those idiots that claimed to speak for the Militias started on all the CIM stuff and were sending money for McVeigh's defense fund. I hope that they are still as organized as they were before Y2K when the whole little community, including the churches, had a plan.


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## FourDeuce (Jun 27, 2002)

Yes, getting organized like that could work, but it would take quite a bit of time. Getting to know someone enough to trust your life to them isn't something to be entered into lightly. I've met quite a few people in this area that I would trust that much through going to campouts on their property. Some of them have one or two campouts every year. It can be done, but it isn't easy.


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## SkizzlePig (May 14, 2006)

uyk7 said:


> "Most Americans are too coddled, too mentally weak, too self-focused to survive a great collapse."
> 
> I still think that there would be plenty of survivors anyway. Many ex-military people live in cities so they would probably survive a collapse as well.


I completely agree! Completely! That said, we're all surrounded by a weak, entitled populace. Those people are going to struggle significantly to survive.

I would place ex-military (and other firearm-trained types) in the 50% that does survive in urban cores.


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## SkizzlePig (May 14, 2006)

Kevingr said:


> Have you spent much time talking to people in large cities? (by large I mean hundreds of thousands of people) If you talk to those people at any great length you'll soon discover it's not them that have to prepare, the Government needs to learn from their mistakes during Katrina and not let that happen again. That's what the government is telling them too, keep 3 days of supplies on hand and we'll soon be there.


If anyone thinks the government is going to be around to do anything for the populace at large during a collapse event, they're fools. The only people that will get any real support are those near military bases or in state capitals. 

It must be remembered that the government is operated by people. In a collapse event, the people who operate the government may be caring for their families, sort out the (potential) destruction in their lives, etc. Without those people, the government does not operate ... there's no one driving the aid trucks, no one manning security checkpoints, no one handing out water or meds, no one processing payments, etc, etc.

Government bailout is the biggest falicy. The government doesn't have any money we (the people) don't provide it. I think that greater question would be if the government could _afford_ a massive bailout in a collapse event. Talk about tax burden or foreign debt ... that might not be possible.

Like I said, my view is pretty dark. I hope it never comes, but ...

PS: I'm not picking on you, Kevingr, just the mentality you brought to light.


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## tamsam (May 12, 2006)

Should that imfo be make to me I would contact the proper people to make sure I didn't have to shoot them in the future. Sounds like they have no respect for the laws or anyone else. Sam


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## wombatcat (Mar 29, 2005)

JGex said:


> We live an hour north of Atlanta about a mile off the interstate... it's certainly not as far out as I would like, but it's what I have to work with. We've been working on our house, but only on the inside.... we're gonna finish that and see where things are economically. Right now, anyone looking at said house would think we ain't got indoor plumbing, so we may just leave it like that for a while.


We've got a house like that, too. Of the houses in a 1 square mile vicinity of our house, from the outside, ours is by far the most dilapidated, least affluent looking one.....if I was looking to rob someone, it would be one of our neighbors with the pristine house, three barns, etc.....not our "not even as good as a trailer" looking heap


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## texican (Oct 4, 2003)

I experienced first hand the Golden Horde from Houston, via Hurricane Rita. I'm three and a half hours from Houston, normally... during Rita, it took all day for relatives to make it up. I'm far enough off the main beat, and so far back in the woods, I think most would bypass me. ((hope springs eternal))

I hope it would be a long time before I had to shoot a zombie... I may talk a mean game, it would be very very hard to actually deliver someone to their maker. But I get mighty antsy when I see zombies wearing 'colors', miles away from my place.... during normal circumstances... During a minor poo storm, a vehicle loaded down with gangbangers, or youngish looking hoodlums, would be met with a steeled resolve.


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## kinderfeld (Jan 29, 2006)

This may be the govt. answer to part of the problem.

http://infowars.com/cc_archive.htm


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## hintonlady (Apr 22, 2007)

Organizing a community or circle of trust is not easy.

If I ever spoke of these things by the "light of day" I'd end up in the boobie hatch fer sure.

My best odds come from family on the same farm and several families who "go back" as neighbors 2 to 3 generations deep. Folks who combine a recent widows harvest to just help out are the only and best I can pick from. 

If there were even minimal warning I think we would be a force to be reconned with, all identifiable my face and name so no confusion.

Add in a treed hill with lots of open gently sloping ground beneath it, livestock guard dogs who love to bark and I feel as safe as is possible. (I repeat as is possible)


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## Kevingr (Mar 10, 2006)

Unlikely Farmer said:


> It must be remembered that the government is operated by people. In a collapse event, the people who operate the government may be caring for their families, sort out the (potential) destruction in their lives, etc. Without those people, the government does not operate ... there's no one driving the aid trucks, no one manning security checkpoints, no one handing out water or meds, no one processing payments, etc, etc.
> QUOTE]
> 
> That's another good point. I work for a large corporation, and one of my responsibilities is Disaster Recovery of their mainframe computer systems. I keep telling everyone on the team, "you need to write these procedures as if a monkey was going to execute them because if there's a regional disaster, I won't be here. I'll be taking care of my own family".


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## turtlehead (Jul 22, 2005)

hintonlady said:


> Organizing a community or circle of trust is not easy.
> 
> If I ever spoke of these things by the "light of day" I'd end up in the boobie hatch fer sure.


We have about seven neighbors around us. We know five of the seven and are on good terms with three of the five. Need to cultivate friendships with some of them, obviously.

We don't talk about preps or SHTF or preparedness at all, but I do know that last year two of the neighbors had gardens who hadn't had them the year before (others may have gardens, too, I just don't know). At least one has a generator. One raises cattle for a living and the others are retired or work day jobs; I don't think any of them but the cattle farmer has any critters but I could be mistaken.

So, we're at some risk from invasion by neighbors. On the other hand, we're cultivating friendships and good will by giving away spare eggs, offering to plow their garden plot with our tractor tiller, etc. When TSHTF I'd be happy to give them hatching eggs or even incubate some eggs for them. They have my six, as they are between me and the road.

We have some family that have said "Well you have a big garden and chickens; if times get rough I know where I'm going, chuckle chuckle." I just chuckle back -- none of them know where I live. My address is a rural route number, not a street addy. And I'm hundreds of miles from any of them.

Our kids know we prep, and that if TSHTF they are welcome, and two of them can bring girlfriends of over two years. But NO FRIENDS. They've been told explicitly that if they show up with friends, we'll shoot them all, even the kids. "Friends" are a threat to our survival in lean and hungry times. I don't know if the kids believe us, but they've been told.

We don't expect too much zombie traffic other than neighbors, unwanted family (if they could possibly make it here), and "friends" of the kids. But you never really know, do you?


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## hfwarner3 (Feb 19, 2008)

FourDeuce said:


> Yes, getting organized like that could work, but it would take quite a bit of time. Getting to know someone enough to trust your life to them isn't something to be entered into lightly. I've met quite a few people in this area that I would trust that much through going to campouts on their property. Some of them have one or two campouts every year. It can be done, but it isn't easy.


This is true, but you would be amazed how trust-building food can be. A dinner when the family is sick. A dozen eggs when the hens are laying. Little things like this build trust quickly when you see them recipricated. By the end of the first summer, we knew our neighbors on a first name basis and knew who were the "me" people versus the "us" people. We still have our "network of friends" going with the "us" people.


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## hfwarner3 (Feb 19, 2008)

Kevingr said:


> Unlikely Farmer said:
> 
> 
> > It must be remembered that the government is operated by people. In a collapse event, the people who operate the government may be caring for their families, sort out the (potential) destruction in their lives, etc. Without those people, the government does not operate ... there's no one driving the aid trucks, no one manning security checkpoints, no one handing out water or meds, no one processing payments, etc, etc.
> ...


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## hfwarner3 (Feb 19, 2008)

hintonlady said:


> Organizing a community or circle of trust is not easy.
> 
> If I ever spoke of these things by the "light of day" I'd end up in the boobie hatch fer sure.


True. Most people don't want to talk about being prepared even if they are preparing without knowing it. Again, I suggest just being neighborly - taking over a homemade pie or cake and introducing yourself. Sharing extra produce. See if they recipricate. If they do, you just took the first step in building your circle of prepared friends. You might also identify who your "problem children" are going to be in a crisis. 

Also, Distributism, by definition, is the belief in capitalism on a mass scale - everyone owns their own wealth-producing capital instead of a few corporations owning it. A good distributist is nearly or completely self-sufficient so, by definition, they are prepared to at least a certain extent. Some of the academics are talking about a "post-petroleum distributist state" - a world where what we need to survive (food, energy, etc.) is produced locally. You can read a little about modern distributism and discuss that as a political/economics discussion instead of a "prepared" discussion. One will have people thinking you are smart and well-read. The other tends to have people write you off as a kook.


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## SkizzlePig (May 14, 2006)

hfwarner3 said:


> So it's not just me! All my fellow IT workers just say, "What's the big deal - we remote in from home if we can't get to work" when we talk about DR and business continuity. When I start pushing them on the issue with things like, "There are riots in the street so the police and national guard patrol the streets. Internet connections are sporatic at best. There are roadblocks on the roads so driving is questionable. Now what." They all look at me like I am crazy.


Being in software and prepping, I find it really amusing how some propeller-heads just assume the Internet, the servers and the electricity to power both will all be functioning normally ... forever. It's their one constant. I asked an in-house IT manager once, "What would happen if the electricity was off for a extended period (days or weeks)?" He said, "We'd stay home ... there'd be nothing for us to do here."

Along the same line, isn't it funny how you don't find a whole lot of data centers in Florida. Why? Hurricanes ... and the subsequent power outages and lack of fuel supply for the generators.


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## ozarkcat (Sep 8, 2004)

DH was in IT, and decided he wanted to get into farming when the tech triangle around Raleigh, NC started going downhill. As he points out, if you produce something, you'd better be able to eat it. You can't eat software.


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## texican (Oct 4, 2003)

hintonlady said:


> Organizing a community or circle of trust is not easy.
> 
> If I ever spoke of these things by the "light of day" I'd end up in the boobie hatch fer sure.


Best to be in a community of free persons now. Get to know them, and them you. I have discussed shtf scenarios, and some acknowledge the benefits and dangers of prepping vs. non prepping.

I wouldn't be organizing too much post shtf... with people I didn't already know, unless they were as well prepped as I am.


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## countrymouse (Nov 9, 2004)

JGex said:


> Yeah, my brother once told me while we were having a similar conversation, "I'm not worried about people out of the city. They have no idea the determination of someone who is willing to sit in a tree stand for 4 days eating Vienna Sausage and drinking Budweiser waiting for a deer. And they have no idea how big my scope is."


If he's opening cans of beer and vienna sausages in his tree it might be more than four days before a deer without the sense of smell wanders by. Of course, maybe bagging a deer is not the real goal


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## JGex (Dec 27, 2005)

countrymouse said:


> If he's opening cans of beer and vienna sausages in his tree it might be more than four days before a deer without the sense of smell wanders by. Of course, maybe bagging a deer is not the real goal


Heh, well the deer maybe ain't so bright in Mississippi 'cause they always come home with a couple!


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## the mama (Mar 1, 2006)

I live in Union County..The prison capital of Florida. I think we have 8 prisons now. What will happen to these inmates. I am sure the death row inmates would go..the corr. officers hate them. These could overwhelm by sheer numbers. Especially if the staff was down due to the disaster. Lets face it WILL you try to go to work? Most of these inmates would be looking to steal transportation, but some would leave a blood bath. I will shoot anyone that I do not know. Time to stock up the ammo. After the inmates are gone, the prison will be a source of food and medicines. They even have a minihospital with an OR. Something to think about.


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## hintonlady (Apr 22, 2007)

the mama said:


> I live in Union County..The prison capital of Florida. I think we have 8 prisons now. What will happen to these inmates. I am sure the death row inmates would go..the corr. officers hate them. These could overwhelm by sheer numbers. Especially if the staff was down due to the disaster. Lets face it WILL you try to go to work? Most of these inmates would be looking to steal transportation, but some would leave a blood bath. I will shoot anyone that I do not know. Time to stock up the ammo. After the inmates are gone, the prison will be a source of food and medicines. They even have a minihospital with an OR. Something to think about.


The national guard would step in if possible. In extreme disaster I imagine criminals with certain criteria would have option to slave/military service. The rest , unkowingly would be handled with a bullet. I would venture to guess a bomb of somesorts would handle it quickly unless the building were needed.

If children are starving in our streets and .gov is in semi working order you may want to be uber careful about accepting processed meat products.

Unless they riot.......I would hope some poor CSO would have the brains to unplug TV's/power for radios so the inmates stayed blissfully ignorant otherwise you better run for the hills.

I would seriously doubt to the infinite degree you would find more than a shred of supplies. They would be exhausted my staff or .gov long before you got there. Your being way too optimistic on that. They do not stockpile anything anyway, week w/o deliveries would put them in same boat as us, don't doubt that.


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## jason. (Jun 26, 2007)

An interesting question, given that I live in a major city (Chicago) and will be stuck here for another two years. My hope is that the 3 million people around me disappear. I don't want them going to visit you folks, of course, but until there is a significant migration, I'm in a depressing amount of danger.

I was living in a similarly tiny apartment in New York on 9/11, and among the lessons I learned were:
- A major surprise event in a city will catch everyone. If the event is isolated, government will step in after 3-5 days and neighbors will pull together in the meantime. 
- Neighborhoods: After a couple of hours, everyone was outside with battery-powered radios, on their cell phones, and running their cars for light/radio/music. Everyone was on the front stoop, picnic coolers were on the sidewalk filled, everyone talked to everyone. People fired up their charcoal grills. It was surreal, but I don't think it would happen everywhere or in every situation.
- Surprised city folks who feel threatened don't fight, they run home. And then neighborhood ties, as above. 
- If people do leave a city under duress, they have some idea of where they're going. Everyone I knew who fled New York on 9/11 went to either their college (we were still young enough to know people on campus) or to their parents' house. This is worth thinking about for anyone who lives in a college town.
- People buy booze and cigarettes in a sudden event. They don't buy paper products, health care items, canned food, and everything that you'll want to have in an emergency.

My current situation is about the same as it was 6 years ago. I'm prepared to shelter in place for a week in the event of a NCB or weather event, but can stretch to 2 weeks if need be. I'm at the storage limit in my place, so it all goes into skills and training. Which is frustrating, now, but I know it'll help when I get out of school and can establish myself somewhere.

My nearest safe haven is 800 miles to the east, but I don't have enough in the way of maps, training, or friends to go safely because I have no firearms. (Anyone in northern Indiana, Ohio, and NW Penn. should drop a note. I'm basically going solo on 90 beyond Albany.)

So I depend on the information that I get. I can ride out weather emergencies, I can camp unsupported for several days, and I can bike/hike for about a week. I'm happy to shelter in place for a few days; it wouldn't be a problem in my urban environment. But if I think I'm going to be stretching to two weeks or longer, I'll pack a bag and go east.


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## AngieM2 (May 10, 2002)

Jason - thanks for the information about NY on 9/11...

It's something that I think we (or at least I) should consider when we think of the "what if's".

Angie


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## uyk7 (Dec 1, 2002)

"If children are starving in our streets and .gov is in semi working order you may want to be uber careful about accepting processed meat products."


Soylent green anyone?


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## hfwarner3 (Feb 19, 2008)

"people! It's Made Of People!"


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