# Gustav has formed



## Guest (Aug 25, 2008)

Tropical Storm Gustav has formed in the Caribbean. His projected track is similar to that of Fay who just finished raining on our parades last week.










National Hurricane Center: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/










These should auto-update.

.....Alan.


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## AngieM2 (May 10, 2002)

Thanks Alan. Fay is just getting here to N. AL today. And we need the rain.
maybe this one will bring us some more.

Angie


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## Guest (Aug 25, 2008)

I got twelve slow inches of rain from her so I hope you get all you want as well.

.....Alan.


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## Collinsfarm (Oct 30, 2007)

Geez...we got 15 inches from Fay in Central Florida. I think that will just about do if for us right now, thank you very much! Time to go re-up the chainsaw supplies!


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## Aintlifegrand (Jun 3, 2005)

Wow.. He looks not so nice... Do you thinking he is tracking for Miami? I hope he doesn't get stronger if that is the case...


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## hillsidedigger (Sep 19, 2006)

The remains of Fay finally reached here earlier today.


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## DavidUnderwood (Jul 5, 2007)

We getting a lil rain from her.


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## unregistered29228 (Jan 9, 2008)

We've got wind and periodic heavy rain here, thanks Alan! We sure needed the rain, and I appreciate your taking the worst of her before passing her this way...

I hope Gustav goes out to sea, or putters out before hitting land. Stay safe, anyway, and thanks for the graph.


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## Txsteader (Aug 22, 2005)

Gustav's got me a little worried. As of now, projections have it aimed toward TX/LA direction. Of course, it's too early for any certainties, but as quickly as it's developing, it bears watching...closely.

Re: Fay....we got a couple days of good, solid rain. Having been under 'extreme drought' conditions, it was most welcomed.


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## virtualco (Feb 3, 2006)

Txsteader, you can have this one... Fay was a non-event for me in SW FL, other places a little farther inland and north have a lot of flooding due to the rains Fay brought.

We are in the 'cone of destruction' as of this morning, albeit on the east side of it, but we are all watching it in this area. Guess I should fill generator with fuel and make sure it is working as Gustav looks as if it could be a destroyer where ever it lands.

Good luck to you in TX.


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## Txsteader (Aug 22, 2005)

virtualco said:


> Txsteader, you can have this one... Fay was a non-event for me in SW FL, other places a little farther inland and north have a lot of flooding due to the rains Fay brought.
> 
> We are in the 'cone of destruction' as of this morning, albeit on the east side of it, but we are all watching it in this area. Guess I should fill generator with fuel and make sure it is working as Gustav looks as if it could be a destroyer where ever it lands.
> 
> Good luck to you in TX.


Just noticed it's now a class 1 hurricane.  

Last night, the local news said that the 'most accurate' computer model had it heading straight in our direction. I see most of the models this a.m. show it turning north sooner, aiming it toward LA and MS.

Good luck to all along the gulf coast. Stay alert and be safe.

Txsteader (who spent 24 hours with 2 million other people on Houston's freeways to get away from Rita and is getting too old for that much excitement again)


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## Guest (Aug 26, 2008)

Gustav blew up mighty fast. If he doesn't tear himself up on Haiti and Cuba he's going to be a real nervous maker when he gets into the Gulf. From looking at the models this morning (8/26) it doesn't look like he's going to cross much land before he does.

.....Alan.


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## Txsteader (Aug 22, 2005)

You're right, Alan. It reminds me of Katrina that developed very rapidly also, only difference being this one's a bit farther out, but also farther south. I guess we should all be praying for wind shear at this point.

We're getting into the intense part of hurricane season now. There's a disturbance near the Cape Verde islands that shows potential for development. It's definitely time to make sure preps are in order.


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## ptannjr (Jul 29, 2008)

I am done with the rain. give me a week or 2 would be better of SUNSHINE!


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## unregistered29228 (Jan 9, 2008)

Stay safe, all of you in Gustav's path! The good thing about being prepped like most of us are is that unless you're in an area that will flood, you can just stay home and avoid the insanity at Home Depot and the grocery store. I loved that when we lived in New England too - we'd have a winter storm or blizzard warning and everyone would stampede to the store. I'd just collect the kids off the school bus and we'd hunker down and wait it out in safety and warmth.

We're under a tornado watch right now, and it's thundering outside. I guess I'll unplug the computer for a while.


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## tyusclan (Jan 1, 2005)

I heard earlier this morning that they're expecting him to make Cat 3 by Saturday or Sunday. 

Not good.


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## Cyngbaeld (May 20, 2004)

Sure looks like it has Texas plastered all over it. Wind is supposed to shift today and come from the south so we may be sucking Gustav right over here. (Eduoard went north of me and we only had a sprinkle, but temps dropped, which was nice.) Well, all we can do is watch and pray while we batten down the hatches.


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## JGex (Dec 27, 2005)

Ugh. I hope Gustav ends up just being a lot of rain for someone and not a lot of other mess.


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## Aintlifegrand (Jun 3, 2005)

I have heard the GFDL line on Alan's chart is one of the most accurate... if so..NOLA could be in trouble.. I don't like this one at all... someone along th eh gulf is going to take a hit...and watch the price of oil..


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## Txsteader (Aug 22, 2005)

Aintlifegrand said:


> ..and watch the price of oil..


Already rising.....


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## Sharon (May 11, 2002)

Fay came in very quietly here yesterday afternoon. We had a misty rain most of the day yesterday and today we've been having a nice slow steady rain. FINALLY! We've gotten a little over an inch so far (more than we've had all total in months) and are expecting the rain to continue throughout tonight and tomorrow. I'm thankful. We've lost a lot of plants and trees this summer; even weeds were dying off. We have a shallow well and have been extra careful with water. I hope Gustav doesn't cause any of you any problems. Now I can transplant my broccoli, cauliflower, cabbage, etc., because we'll finally be able to plow the garden. We have clay soil and it was like a rock!


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## Aintlifegrand (Jun 3, 2005)

Txsteader said:


> Already rising.....


Yep... I saw that first thing this am...  I am really worried about this storm.. was watching Gov. Jindall telling everyone.. "Now is the time to prepare not this weekend".. He was saying.. "We are making preparations but it is up to the citizen to prepare for themselves"...They may begin evacs of NOLA on Friday...


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## anette (Jun 20, 2008)

Sounds about right. I have a mini vacation in Galveston planned for me, DD and DGD. I am watching this one.


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## Guest (Aug 27, 2008)

*Weather Underground Models*









I suspect he's going to drift somewhat more east. Five days out he might do most anything.

.....Alan.


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## JGex (Dec 27, 2005)

I talked my Brother in Long Beach MS today (Just about where that blue line up there is making landfall)... said people were already buying plywood and battening down everything in South Mississippi. 

He's all pleased with himself... I think he's almost wanting a chance to test out his generator system. When he built his new house after Katrina, he installed a generator system that will run his whole electrical set up. And he's in an area safe from everything but possibly flying debris and tornadoes, so he is planning to ride it out unless it strengthens beyond a Cat 3.


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## Txsteader (Aug 22, 2005)

I _really_ hate this time of year. And even though I've lived here all my life, I'm _really_ beginning to hate living here.


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## Guest (Aug 28, 2008)

1 - 2 - 3 - 4 - 5

Yeah buddy.

.....Alan.


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## Aintlifegrand (Jun 3, 2005)

A.T. Hagan said:


> 1 - 2 - 3 - 4 - 5
> 
> Yeah buddy.
> 
> .....Alan.



Oh no.. not what I wanted to see...


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## Txsteader (Aug 22, 2005)

What your image doesn't show are 3 MORE waves lined up behind that last one on the right coming of the coast of Africa!!! 

Jeff Master's blog @ Wunderground --scroll down the page for image.


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## Glenda in MS (Sep 15, 2007)

We are near Wiggins, Ms, 40 miles north of Gulfport and people are really taking the risk of a landfall seriously; local gas stations are running out of gas and bottled water is hard to find. I work for Hospice and we have spent the entire week making sure that patients have what they need and/or are evacuated. 

We rode out Katrina. Due to our homesteadig lifestyle, we had all we needed(4 weeks no electicity) and what many of our neighbors needed. If another major hurricane comes our way- we will stay home.


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## JGex (Dec 27, 2005)

Glenda in MS said:


> We are near Wiggins, Ms, 40 miles north of Gulfport and people are really taking the risk of a landfall seriously; local gas stations are running out of gas and bottled water is hard to find. I work for Hospice and we have spent the entire week making sure that patients have what they need and/or are evacuated.
> 
> We rode out Katrina. Due to our homesteadig lifestyle, we had all we needed(4 weeks no electicity) and what many of our neighbors needed. If another major hurricane comes our way- we will stay home.


I'd certainly feel safe to ride out a storm in Wiggins. Especially if you have all your preps and can stand the heat and humidity without AC for a little while. 

I'll be heading to Long Beach if Gustav decides to come through there. Weeee.... I only have 2 weeks left to get my CERT certification. Darned storms!


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## swamp man (Dec 25, 2005)

Glenda in MS said:


> We are near Wiggins, Ms, 40 miles north of Gulfport and people are really taking the risk of a landfall seriously; local gas stations are running out of gas and bottled water is hard to find. I work for Hospice and we have spent the entire week making sure that patients have what they need and/or are evacuated.
> 
> We rode out Katrina. Due to our homesteadig lifestyle, we had all we needed(4 weeks no electicity) and what many of our neighbors needed. If another major hurricane comes our way- we will stay home.


Hi, Glenda! Long time, no see....:buds:

Were selling out of stuff here (Petal) too. Wally's was already out of bread and water a coupla' days ago, and lines are stacking up at the pumps. I got nearly the last of the propane yesterday, and the full delivery had come in just a few hours earlier.
I keep pretty well stocked year 'round, but there's nothin' like a hurricane bearing down to make the holes in preps stand out a bit more. I've still got a short list of things to pick up over the weekend, and will most likely be driving down to the big easy tonight, with hopes of not getting wrapped up in mass exodus traffic during my return trip in the A.M.
My preps are gettin' used during this one, either way.....if we take a direct hit, I'll need 'em, and if she hits west and slings a bunch of rain this way and interrupts my work, with as much work as I've missed due to weather lately, I'll be eating them for lack of grocery $. Lol.


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## Cyngbaeld (May 20, 2004)

> Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on August 29, 2008
> 
> 
> satellite images show that Gustav has an expanding cloud shield and
> ...



Cat 4 between Jamaica and Cuba! YIKES!


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## Txsteader (Aug 22, 2005)

I read that awhile ago while looking for updates, Cyngbaeld. Put a knot in my stomach, especially that possible track to the west due to high pressure over Ohio valley. We're getting plywood ready to put on the windows, I filled the car up with gas this a.m. and bought more drinking water, bread, etc. Now we just sit and wait. And pray.


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## Cyngbaeld (May 20, 2004)

Don't wait too long! Have you got the maps out and alternate routes chosen?


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## JGex (Dec 27, 2005)

Great..... I need to call my Mom.


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## Txsteader (Aug 22, 2005)

Cyngbaeld said:


> Don't wait too long! Have you got the maps out and alternate routes chosen?


Absolutely! After the Rita evac. fiasco (Houston/Galveston), you can bet we have routes/destinations planned. SIL & I were discussing that very topic last night. I would advise all gulf coast residents to be taking care of these plans NOW!!


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## horselover.com (Jul 3, 2006)

swamp man said:


> Hi, Glenda! Long time, no see....:buds:
> 
> Were selling out of stuff here (Petal) too. Wally's was already out of bread and water a coupla' days ago, and lines are stacking up at the pumps. I got nearly the last of the propane yesterday, and the full delivery had come in just a few hours earlier.
> I keep pretty well stocked year 'round, but there's nothin' like a hurricane bearing down to make the holes in preps stand out a bit more. I've still got a short list of things to pick up over the weekend, and will most likely be driving down to the big easy tonight, with hopes of not getting wrapped up in mass exodus traffic during my return trip in the A.M.
> My preps are gettin' used during this one, either way.....if we take a direct hit, I'll need 'em, and if she hits west and slings a bunch of rain this way and interrupts my work, with as much work as I've missed due to weather lately, I'll be eating them for lack of grocery $. Lol.



Jackson store shelves are pretty much bare as well - at china mart this morning there was no bottled water, no flashlights, very little charcoal, the canned goods isle was almost completely wiped out, they were wheeling out pallets of gas cans and people were grabbing them off the cart before the clerk could put them on the shelves
the lines at ALL of the gas stations are unbelievable


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## Cyngbaeld (May 20, 2004)

> It's time to leave New Orleans
> Today is the 3rd anniversary of Hurricane Katrina's catastrophic hit on the Louisiana/Mississippi/Alabama coast. Unfortunately, I think that people living in New Orleans should mark the anniversary of Katrina by getting the heck out of the city. You live at the bottom of a bowl, much of it below sea level. This is not natural. Nature wants to fill up this bowl with huge quantities of Gulf of Mexico sea water. There is a storm capable of doing that bearing down on you. If you live in New Orleans, I suggest you take a little Labor Day holiday--sooner, rather than later, to beat the rush--and get out of town. Gustav is going to come close to you, and there's no sense messing with a major hurricane capable of pushing a Category 3 storm surge to your doorstep. Don't test those Category 3 rated--but untested--levees. Conventional pre-Katrina wisdom suggested that the city needed 72 hours to evacuate. With the population about half of the pre-Katrina population, that lead time is about 60 hours. With Gustav likely to bring tropical storm force winds to the city by Monday afternoon, that means that tonight is a good time to start evacuating--Saturday morning at the latest. Voluntary evacuations have already begun, which is a good idea


The rest of Dr Jeff Masters weather blog is here:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html


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## Guest (Aug 30, 2008)

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/292100.shtml

GUSTAV HAS TURNED MORE TO THE RIGHT AND SPED UP A LITTLE...NOW
MOVING AT ABOUT 305/10...AS IT HEADS FOR A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE PORTION OF THAT RIDGE
THAT IS INTACT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES IS
FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO EVOLVE INTO A DEEP-LAYER HIGH THAT WILL
REACH THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. IN A FEW DAYS. THERE ARE IMPORTANT
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS...HOWEVER...IN HOW MUCH RIDGING WILL
EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THAT HIGH TOWARD TEXAS...AND IN HOW STRONG
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL BE OVER
THE WESTERN GULF IN A FEW DAYS. THESE VARYING SOLUTIONS LEAD TO
DIFFERENT TRACKS FOR GUSTAV OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. MODELS WITH
THE RIDGE EXTENSION AND A STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF
GUSTAV...SUCH AS THE NOGAPS AND UKMET...FORECAST GUSTAV TO TURN
WESTWARD TOWARD TEXAS. OTHERS INCLUDING THE GFS...GFDL...AND
HWRF...DO NOT SHOW THE RIDGE EXTENSION NOR A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH...AND FORECAST GUSTAV TO BE PULLED INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST FARTHER EAST. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE
LATTER SOLUTIONS AND IS EAST OF THE CONSENSUS...AND REPRESENTS NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. *DUE TO THE NOTABLE
MODEL SPREAD LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...IT IS ONCE AGAIN
IMPORTANT TO RESTATE THAT IT IS SIMPLY NOT YET POSSIBLE TO
DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN GUSTAV WILL MAKE FINAL LANDFALL.*



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/2100Z 19.2N 79.7W 65 KT
12HR VT 30/0600Z 20.1N 80.9W 75 KT
24HR VT 30/1800Z 21.7N 82.8W 90 KT...OVER ISLE OF YOUTH
36HR VT 31/0600Z 23.4N 84.8W 100 KT
48HR VT 31/1800Z 25.2N 86.8W 110 KT
72HR VT 01/1800Z 28.0N 90.0W 105 KT
96HR VT 02/1800Z 30.5N 92.5W 85 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 03/1800Z 32.0N 94.0W 55 KT...INLAND
-- -- -- -- --

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/292339.shtml

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...*AND GUSTAV COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE NEAR THE TIME IT CROSSES WESTERN CUBA.
*

== == ==

.....Alan.


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## texican (Oct 4, 2003)

Was talking with the owner of our "little super" gas station this afternoon, and she said her family in Houston was packing bags... that the wall to wall vehicles were already queing up to get the heck out of Dodge.

So, the Golden Horde is about to descend upon us once again... I'll try and learn as much as I can about the exodus.

From the above maps, it's headed smack dab right in my direction... wonder if I'll be brave enough to go sailing? during the storm?


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## Guest (Aug 30, 2008)

*Gustav headed for current that fuels big storms*

WASHINGTON - The difference between a monster and a wimp for Gulf of Mexico hurricanes often comes down to a small patch of warm deep water that's easy to miss. It's called the Loop Current, and hurricane trackers say Gustav is headed right for it.

http://www.onenewsnow.com/Headlines/Default.aspx?id=233146


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## Guest (Aug 30, 2008)

If there are any folks in coastal Louisiana and East Texas who haven't gotten started on getting ready for this storm then RIGHT NOW is the time to get started.

.....Alan.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/301200.shtml

000
WTNT32 KNHC 301200
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

...MAJOR HURRICANE GUSTAV CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING OVER THE ISLE OF YOUTH...

AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND
CIENFUEGOS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN
CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA
HABANA...ISLA DE JUVENTUD...MATANZAS...AND CIENFUEGOS. 
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCE
OF VILLA CLARA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA
KEYS WEST OF KEY WEST TO THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN
PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND
CAMAGUEY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS
WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST.

INTERESTS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

*AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.6 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES...
135 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND ABOUT 225 MILES...360 KM
...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.*

GUSTAV HAS JOGGED TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS...BUT IS EXPECTED TO SOON RESUME A MOTION TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER
OF GUSTAV WILL PASS OVER WESTERN CUBA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY SUNDAY AND INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF BY EARLY MONDAY.

*DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE AND ARE NOW NEAR 120
MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A DANGEROUS
CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. 
GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER WESTERN CUBA AS A MAJOR
HURRICANE...AND COULD REACH CATEGORY FOUR STATUS BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL THERE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.*

GUSTAV IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM BOTH AIR FORCE
AND NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH 14 TO 19 FEET POSSIBLE NEAR
WHERE THE CENTER OF GUSTAV CROSSES WESTERN CUBA...INCLUDING THE ISLE
OF YOUTH. STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE IN THE DRY TORTUGAS AS GUSTAV PASSES TO ITS WEST.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER FLORIDA KEYS
AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA BY SUNDAY MORNING.

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...20.8 N...81.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB


== == == == ==

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/300858.shtml

000
WTNT42 KNHC 300858
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

*GUSTAV HAS BEEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.* SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT AN EYE IS BECOMING VISIBLE AND DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE IS NOW VERY INTENSE. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS DOWN TO 965 MB...A DROP OF ABOUT 24 MB IN 24 HOURS. THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE CREW WERE 100 KT AROUND 6Z... CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 90 KT AT THE SURFACE. 
HOWEVER THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE...THUS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED CONSERVATIVELY TO 95 KT. OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE MUCH HIGHER AND THE NEXT AIRCRAFT PASS THROUGH GUSTAV COULD FIND A MAJOR HURRICANE.

*FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE EXTREMELY WARM AND DEEP WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
HOWEVER...BY 48 HOURS...ALMOST ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN
INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NEAR GUSTAV. IN ADDITION...SINCE
THE LOOP CURRENT IS SOUTH OF ITS TYPICAL LOCATION...THE HURRICANE
WILL BE MOVING OVER WATERS THAT ARE NOT NEARLY AS CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING AS THEY COULD BE. THESE TWO FACTORS WILL HOPEFULLY
WEAKEN THE STORM PRIOR TO U.S. LANDFALL. HOWEVER...GUSTAV IS
EXPECTED TO BE A LARGE AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE AND THE NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW GUSTAV AS A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL.*

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/10. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TO NORTHERN FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING THE HURRICANE TO THE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER...A RIDGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD CAUSE A GRADUAL LEFTWARD BEND IN THE TRACK AS GUSTAV APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO EXCEPT FOR THE UKMET/HWRF...WHICH TURN THE SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE. THESE TWO MODELS ARE SLOWER AND TO THE LEFT OF MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE...WHICH ALLOWS A RIDGE TO FORM OVER TEXAS TO TURN THE STORM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL STAY WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE AND IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. *GUSTAV WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LONGER-TERM...WHICH COULD CAUSE A CONSIDERABLE FLOODING THREAT OVER LOUISIANA OR TEXAS. *

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/0900Z 20.2N 81.3W 95 KT
12HR VT 30/1800Z 21.2N 82.7W 105 KT
24HR VT 31/0600Z 22.9N 84.6W 110 KT
36HR VT 31/1800Z 24.6N 86.4W 115 KT
48HR VT 01/0600Z 26.5N 88.3W 110 KT
72HR VT 02/0600Z 29.5N 91.5W 100 KT...NEAR LOUISIANA COAST
96HR VT 03/0600Z 30.5N 93.0W 70 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 04/0600Z 31.0N 94.0W 35 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA


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## wottahuzzee (Jul 7, 2006)

Starting to get the squall line thunderstorms/outer bands here in Key West, well actually all the Keys will be getting it. Looks like we will be under tropical storm conditions through sunday a.m., although I will take that over a Cat 3 any day. 

Stay safe all.


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## Guest (Aug 30, 2008)

A.T. Hagan said:


> *Weather Underground Models*
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Yesterday, those projected paths were fanned out, with potential strikes anywhere from Florida to Texas.

But look how they are tightening up. It looks more and more like Louisiana is the likely target.


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## Freeholder (Jun 19, 2004)

ladycat said:


> Yesterday, those projected paths were fanned out, with potential strikes anywhere from Florida to Texas.
> 
> But look how they are tightening up. It looks more and more like Louisiana is the likely target.


Louisiana and a whole lot of off-shore oil rigs. Better get extra gas to store, because there may be shortages for a while.

Kathleen


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## virtualco (Feb 3, 2006)

I have been watching a New Orleans television station that has live continual reporting on Hurricane Gustva. http://www.wdsu.com Click the 'Watch Live' for their reports.

I am truly amazed at the amount of traffic leaving the area and it is being reported that this traffic, although 'packed', will become worse tomorrow when contraflow begins.

Also viewed was the people standing in line for their bus evacuation. I have noticed them using terms for the evacuees one might use when herding cattle. There is a registering process and they are comparing this line to the line of people during Katrina wanting into the sports center downtown. This time around NO ONE is being allowed into the stadium and emergency departments are telling people, (paraphrasing) "No way are we going to be able to come to your assistance in case you get 'jammed' up." 

Finally the truth comes out.

Truly amazing...


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## Guest (Aug 30, 2008)

virtualco said:


> I am truly amazed at the amount of traffic leaving the area and it is being reported that this traffic, although 'packed', will become worse tomorrow when contraflow begins.


Traffic cams of the highways leaving NOLA. Not looking jammed yet.

http://www.vuetoo.com/vue1/Situationpagenews.asp?sit=1791


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## Txsteader (Aug 22, 2005)

I've been watching the traffic cams too, Ladycat. Very surprised I-10 in Houston also showing light traffic. I thought they were all coming this way, although if it were me, I'd be heading East toward MS/AL. Can't find may cams in MS, though.

Our neighbor is a Thibadeaux, and his yard was suddenly filling up with cars this morning (he owns 40 acres, so he's got plenty of room). I told DH that they must be kinfolk coming from LA. I guess they could be local kinfolk getting an early start on Labor Day festivities


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## swamp man (Dec 25, 2005)

I left New Orleans at 6:30 this morning. Lotsa' cars on the road, but moving along real well, and the fast lane pretty much stayed at 80 mph all the way to Hattiesburg. On the way down last night, I had the southbound lanes all to myself.
Buses are there and available, and there's plenty of help for those who need/choose to accept it.
Anyone who winds up in a tight spot in N.O. on this time around deserves what they've got coming.


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## texican (Oct 4, 2003)

Well, I reckon it's time to put up the 'flood door'... During hurricane Rita, I dug trenches around my house, to divert water. Also put 1x12's in the door frames and siliconed them, so if sheet flooding occurred, the water wouldn't flow through the house. My home is built into a hillside, with an area cut around the upper sections of the house, so one can walk around it, and a large entry area. When it rains hard, the water flows down the hill, and goes into my drainage system.........but it can get overwhelmed, and then water wants to come through the house, and flow out the other side of the house... would be a nice way to clean things up  if it weren't for all the mud...

My lake is 8" low, so I have some safety there... if it starts filling too fast, I'll be up (like during Rita), with my shovel, just in case.

Have to rearrange some birds that are on the ground, in cages... don't want to have em all drowning...

Overall, we still need the rain... with a good drenching, we can probably get extra hay off our relatives and neighbors...


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## Mutti (Sep 7, 2002)

Saw on the internet that winds are now 145 mph....what are the speeds needed for each category?? Seems like going over the warm gulf isn't gonna help things at all. Hope all your southern neighbors are on your way out. DEE


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## Cyngbaeld (May 20, 2004)

Cat 4 over Cuba and expected to hit cat 5 before leaving Cuba. Dr Masters said Havana is taking a hit.


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## Cyngbaeld (May 20, 2004)

> Category One Hurricane:
> Winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt or 119-153 km/hr).
> 
> Category Two Hurricane:
> ...


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshs.shtml


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## Txsteader (Aug 22, 2005)

As of this posting (6 p.m.), winds are 150 mph. Expected to build to cat 5 after it leaves cuba, then decrease to cat 4 all the way to landfall. Still predicting LA as target, close to where Katrina hit. And levees aren't rated for a cat 4 storm. Hope everybody gets the heck out of there.


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## Guest (Aug 30, 2008)

Txsteader said:


> As of this posting (6 p.m.), winds are 150 mph. Expected to build to cat 5 after it leaves cuba, then decrease to cat 4 all the way to landfall. Still predicting LA as target, close to where Katrina hit. And levees aren't rated for a cat 4 storm. Hope everybody gets the heck out of there.


Breaking news alert over an hour ago says it's reached cat 5 now. 

I feel for those people in Cuba who are in it's path.


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## hoggie (Feb 11, 2007)

sorry - a couple of questions. Just read a report that Gustav has decreased to a cat 3 - is that probably the effects of crossing Cuba - I know it isn't a particularly big piece of land but land does tend to slow hurricanes?

The other question - I have been looking at those traffic cams, and I expected the New Orleans ones to show packed jams but the roads look virtually empty? Any ideas? 

hoggie


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## Cyngbaeld (May 20, 2004)

Yes, going over land tends to slow down the hurricanes. They need the heat from the water to run on. 

I suspect a lot of the "early leavers" are gone and the rest are waiting till the last minute; some because they must and the others because they aren't convinced they need to. Trouble is, the ones who could and don't leave early tend to jam things up for those who MUST stay till the last minute because they are essential for running things.


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## wottahuzzee (Jul 7, 2006)

This is a link if you like to listen to scanner traffic: 
It's a streaming audio feed of the evacuation, (in progress): 
Hurricane Gustav Communications - New Orleans
State of Louisiana P25 Emergency Management Broadcast
Stream URL: http://www.radioreference.com:8000/nola.mp3.m3u 

hope this is not a duplicate. I meant to post it but got interrupted.


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## Cyngbaeld (May 20, 2004)

He's slowed to a two but expected to make a 3 before landfall. Highest storm surge is expected to be at NOLA.
Apparently he is skirting the hottest water and that is keeping him from picking back up to a four. They think NOLA MAY survive a 3 if the levees hold. Some people haven't left.


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## AngieM2 (May 10, 2002)

watching CNN just now, seems that the edge of the storm has reached NOLA. Took two CNN reports off the reporting.

For all in his pathways, stay alert, stay as safe as possible.

Angie


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## fretti (Jun 30, 2007)

ladycat said:


> I feel for those people in Cuba who are in it's path.


*Cuba digs out after Gustav's winds hit 212 mph*

HAVANA - Cubans returned from shelters to find flooded homes and washed-out roads Sunday, but no deaths were reported after a monstrous Hurricane Gustav roared across the island and into the oil-rich Gulf of Mexico.

Gustav hit the Isla de la Juventud south of the Cuban mainland with screaming 140 mph winds that toppled telephone poles and fruit trees, shattered windows and leveled some homes...

*Officials measured gusts of 212 mph in the western town of Paso Real del San Diego â a new national record for maximum wind speed in a country often hit by major hurricanes,* said Miguel Angel Hernandez of the Cuban Institute of Meteorology.

Like a bomb's 'blast wave'
*A Cuban television reporter on the Isla de la Juventud said the storm had felt like "the blast wave from a bomb."*

"Buildings without windows, without doors," he said. "Few trees remain standing."...

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26486029/


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