# THEY DON'T KNOW how many are infected



## Coco (Jun 8, 2007)

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-government-Ebola-concerns.html#ixzz3Evg0VdcZ


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## Coco (Jun 8, 2007)

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/02/world/africa/ebola-victim-texas-thomas-eric-duncan.html


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## Ozarks Tom (May 27, 2011)

The authorities keep saying a person isn't contagious until they exhibit symptoms, but the doctor who was flown back to Atlanta wasn't treating ebola patients, he was an OBGYN delivering babies. To their knowledge none of his patients was infected.

If would appear to me, a person could be contagious prior to showing symptoms, and then infecting others via bodily fluids (coughing/sneezing/wiping a runny nose) and then touching surfaces for others to touch. In other words, we're being lied to.


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## Ernie (Jul 22, 2007)

Ozarks Tom said:


> The authorities keep saying a person isn't contagious until they exhibit symptoms, but the doctor who was flown back to Atlanta wasn't treating ebola patients, he was an OBGYN delivering babies. To their knowledge none of his patients was infected.
> 
> If would appear to me, a person could be contagious prior to showing symptoms, and then infecting others via bodily fluids (coughing/sneezing/wiping a runny nose) and then touching surfaces for others to touch. In other words, we're being lied to.


The problem with that theory is that you become contagious as soon as your body begins shedding the virus. That could happen in a myriad of ways.

And it's not a binary function, meaning you are either contagious or you're not. It's a progressive scale going from least contagious to most contagious. 

The authorities are relying on a poor educational system to do most of the work for them. Sending a guy out with a shiny flag lapel pin today in a teleconference to assure you that they know science was one method. 

Did anyone fall for it?


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## Allen W (Aug 2, 2008)

Just like I believed a beheading is work place violence.

Our leaders don't have any real answers any more just another load of stale bull and feel good rhetoric.


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## gibbsgirl (May 1, 2013)

Ernie said:


> The problem with that theory is that you become contagious as soon as your body begins shedding the virus. That could happen in a myriad of ways.
> 
> And it's not a binary function, meaning you are either contagious or you're not. It's a progressive scale going from least contagious to most contagious.
> 
> ...


Darn it. Why can I only push the blasted like button once


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## terri9630 (Mar 12, 2012)

Ernie said:


> The problem with that theory is that you become contagious as soon as your body begins shedding the virus. That could happen in a myriad of ways.
> 
> And it's not a binary function, meaning you are either contagious or you're not. It's a progressive scale going from least contagious to most contagious.
> 
> ...


I didn't get to see it. We're at the fair with no cable and very little cell reception.


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## mpillow (Jan 24, 2003)

"ebola can survive on contaminated surfaces for several days"

the airplane, the taxi, the chair at ER....the ambulance....the trash when he got sick at home....


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## Ernie (Jul 22, 2007)

mpillow said:


> "ebola can survive on contaminated surfaces for several days"
> 
> the airplane, the taxi, the chair at ER....the ambulance....the trash when he got sick at home....


I've thought about that some, and as of yet there are no reported cases, even in Africa, of someone contracting ebola from a surface.

Every case that we're aware of so far has been from direct contact with the bodily fluids of an infected person.

That doesn't mean I'd want to be licking the chair seats at the airport ... but I think normal precautions would apply. The surface transmission threat may be somewhat overblown at this point.

Probably the things that keep you safe in the world during flu season would also keep you safe from ebola. As long as you aren't handling and touching infected people.

I think there's a certain level of bias in the American psyche towards ebola. We saw it ravage parts of Africa and we said, "Well, that's just because it's Africa. They don't have a good medical system."

But now that it's here, and has apparently evaded our own healthcare system (thus far), to preserve our fragile American ego we blow it out of proportion as this super disease that can destroy everything. 

The more I read the actual studies regarding ebola, the less I am worried about it. The disease is sort of like AIDS ... it's bad, but there are certain behaviors you can avoid which will limit your possibility of catching it to almost nil.

The problem is going to be that those behaviors to be avoided are something that probably 90% of the American public can't do. Such as mingling with the public or bumping up against other individuals during your day.


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## kycountry (Jan 26, 2012)

Ernie said:


> The more I read the actual studies regarding ebola, the less I am worried about it. The disease is sort of like AIDS ... it's bad, but there are certain behaviors you can avoid which will limit your possibility of catching it to almost nil.
> 
> The problem is going to be that those behaviors to be avoided are something that probably 90% of the American public can't do. Such as mingling with the public or bumping up against other individuals during your day.


Ernie, I too thought it was no big deal, same as AIDS until I dug a little deeper. In my research, I have noticed this is a LOT worse than AIDS ever thought about being..

Ebola causes projectile vomit.. some of the things come to mind are someone being upchucked on, slinging their Armes as a knee jerk reaction and others being contaminated several feet away. 

Animals can be carriers, haven't seen any real documentation on how long they can carry it.. so this is still up in the air.. and they show no symptoms.

Depending on the speed it spreads (if it isn't contained), how many hospitals have you noticed that has a meaningful number of isolation rooms to handle more than a handful of patients... 

And yes, our health system is one of the best in the world, but it is constantly over filled and under staffed.. we also have no means of securely disposing of a large amount of biohazards that could potentially be created by an outbreak on any substantial scale..


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## Ohio dreamer (Apr 6, 2006)

terri9630 said:


> I didn't get to see it. We're at the fair with no cable and very little cell reception.


Lucky Duck!!! You haven't missed anything. 

I think this, like many of the plagues of the past, will play itself out and barely be a memory in short time. Yes, it will be awful for those directly impacted, but I don't think many will be. Basic cleanliness and considerations can go a long way in slowing this down. IF people would wash up after themselves and stay home when they or their kids are the least bit sick (yes, I know this is hard with 2 income families....but find a way!) then things won't spread so easily.
http://www.pinterest.com/pin/create/extension/


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## Ernie (Jul 22, 2007)

kycountry said:


> Ernie, I too thought it was no big deal, same as AIDS until I dug a little deeper. In my research, I have noticed this is a LOT worse than AIDS ever thought about being..
> 
> Ebola causes projectile vomit.. some of the things come to mind are someone being upchucked on, slinging their Armes as a knee jerk reaction and others being contaminated several feet away.
> 
> ...


When I say it's not a big deal, I mean it's not a big deal TO ME with my lifestyle.

Today I went to the little country store up the road. One other customer inside so I waited in the car until he left. Then I went in, got my purchases, and left. Wiped down the milk jug with some wetwipes before sticking it in the fridge, and poured my soda into a container here after wiping off the top. My gloves are sitting out on the hood of the truck right now in the sun.

Total people I came into contact with: 1

I don't have to leave the house again for three days.

So yeah, at my current lifestyle ... minimal risk. Everyone else will have to assess their own threat risk.


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## Ozarks Tom (May 27, 2011)

Ernie, there are in fact cases of contracting the disease through intermediate contact. It's become quite a problem in W Africa where private transportation is minimal, and public, taxis, buses, etc. are the norm.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...read-by-taxi-passengers-says-who-9719478.html

It appears to transfer much like any other flu or cold virus, someone doesn't have to sneeze in your face to give it to you. A simple cough into their hand, and a pull on a communal handle is all it takes.


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## kabic (May 12, 2009)

I'm headed to Dallas next week, I'm not scared.

If you don't hear from me after that you guys & gals can be concerned...but 87 posts in 5 years, you might not hear from me very soon anyways...


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## WildernesFamily (Mar 11, 2006)

Ernie said:


> When I say it's not a big deal, I mean it's not a big deal TO ME with my lifestyle.
> 
> Today I went to the little country store up the road. One other customer inside so I waited in the car until he left. Then I went in, got my purchases, and left. Wiped down the milk jug with some wetwipes before sticking it in the fridge, and poured my soda into a container here after wiping off the top. My gloves are sitting out on the hood of the truck right now in the sun.
> 
> ...


Wish I could say the same! And Ernie, I think you need a goat or two 

While we are a homeschooling family and so our contact can be quite limited, DH is not in that position... he is in multiple schools and hospitals... daily. :shocked:


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## Ernie (Jul 22, 2007)

If I were still back working in the world, I'd think it would be time to use some vacation days.

At least until I knew which way this thing was headed.


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## Trainwrek (Aug 23, 2014)

Sorry guys I havent been paying too much attention to the Ebola scare. Does anybody survive this thing? What are the survival odds?


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## Trainwrek (Aug 23, 2014)

OK guys I assume none of you know, did some digging to find the answer. According to the WHO survival rates in Africa are about 50%.

So far in America, survival rates have been 100%.



> The average Ebola survival rate is about 50 percent, according to the World Health Organization, but it varies greatly, in part because of the different medical resources available to treat different patients.
> 
> In past outbreaks, all of which have been in Africa, survival rates ranged from 25 percent to 90 percent.
> 
> ...


http://www.nationaljournal.com/heal...her-key-questions-about-the-epidemic-20140930


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## Vahomesteaders (Jun 4, 2014)

What people are forgetting is all the studies done on it are in Africa where some people have built an immunity to it. American bodies have zero immunity or defenses against it. We are highly susceptible to get it through the most tiny contact as its an extreme foreign virus to our inviroment. I don't watch much TV but Glenn Beck said yesterday America is in for a humbling from ebola virus. I think he just may be right. I also read where they are saying that it very easily could lead to a mandatory stay at home order for weeks. We are over due for disaster. We are to cocky as a nation and feel we are invincible. Reality and karma catches up eventually.


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## Vahomesteaders (Jun 4, 2014)

100% from a couple of cases. Not good statistics to be out off of. When children and elderly get it that will change. The cdc says average survival rate is 50% in most places and 25% in other places. 90% is the most developed city in Africa where again people immune systems are use to the virus.


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## Trainwrek (Aug 23, 2014)

Vahomesteaders said:


> 100% from a couple of cases. Not good statistics to be out off of. When children and elderly get it that will change. The cdc says average survival rate is 50% in most places and 25% in other places. 90% is the most developed city in Africa where again people immune systems are use to the virus.


Your immune system doesn't get 'used to the virus' until you've had it. There is no such a thing as building an immunity without getting Ebola. So no, the African people do not have some special resistance to the disease.

90% in the more developed areas of Africa, and 100% in the US based on 4 cases. This suggests that with proper, modern medical care your chances of dying are extremely low. As for children and the elderly, I agree their odds aren't as good but the same can be said of the common flu.


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## Trainwrek (Aug 23, 2014)

Most people without care dehydrate from the disease. A simple fluid IV changes your survival odds tremendously.


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## AngieM2 (May 10, 2002)

Trainwrek - you are speaking with a level of confidence that seems stronger than most that are here. Are you in the medical field and know some inside information?


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## Vahomesteaders (Jun 4, 2014)

Funny how it killed the leading doctor in the world who studied the disease all while recieving propper care. And they carry these people around in air tight Chambers. Guess they aren't worried about it huh?


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## Calico Katie (Sep 12, 2003)

We'll see what happens in Dallas as that will be ground zero for ebola in this country. I'm not concerned about the four patients who were flown in and received specialized treatment from the get go - our 100% success rate so far. I am concerned about the man who came into the country, spent time around numerous other people for six days and was then taken by ambulance to a hospital, violently vomiting. The last report I heard, he's not doing well at all. It will be a miracle if no one who was exposed to him contracts it. They're trying to figure out who all he was around but then you have to consider who the people exposed to him were also around, especially during that three days before he was hospitalized.


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## kabic (May 12, 2009)

kabic said:


> I'm headed to Dallas next week, I'm not scared.
> 
> If you don't hear from me after that you guys & gals can be concerned...but 87 posts in 5 years, you might not hear from me very soon anyways...


FYI, Things seemed "normal" in the part of Dallas I was in last week. 

We'll see how things progress with two nurses now having it.


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## KimTN (Jan 16, 2007)

Uhh, we don't have 100% survival rate in the USA. I believe we have a dead guy. One dead guy out of 4.


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## Ernie (Jul 22, 2007)

kabic said:


> FYI, Things seemed "normal" in the part of Dallas I was in last week.
> 
> We'll see how things progress with two nurses now having it.


Human beings have an amazing capacity for living under the shadow without a clue. I suppose if we ever stop to think about it, the myriad of ways in which we could be crushed, perforated, mangled, infected, or mutilated would have us all just staying in bed all day long.


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## gibbsgirl (May 1, 2013)

Trainwrek said:


> Your immune system doesn't get 'used to the virus' until you've had it. There is no such a thing as building an immunity without getting Ebola. So no, the African people do not have some special resistance to the disease.
> 
> 90% in the more developed areas of Africa, and 100% in the US based on 4 cases. This suggests that with proper, modern medical care your chances of dying are extremely low. As for children and the elderly, I agree their odds aren't as good but the same can be said of the common flu.


do you have some links to explain what you've wrote here?

for anyone interested. here's some links to help with some understanding that I've found. 

children and the elderly (i.e. those considered to have weakened immune systems typically) are not at a higher risk of death as with a common flu. ebola kills by creating a cytokine storm (just like with Spanish flu and many others). a cytokine storms intensity is directly related to the strength of the immune system of the host. so, stronger healthier portions of the population are going to have a stronger storm than weaker.

http://www.npr.org/blogs/goatsandsoda/2014/08/26/342451672/how-ebola-kills-you-its-not-the-virus

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cytokine_storm



there has been some immunity to ebola discovered in some populations.

http://en.ird.fr/the-media-centre/scientific-newssheets/337-possible-natural-immunity-to-ebola

it is being studied more, because obviously understanding how it's happening could help with the care/prevention of further victims

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/06/health/ebola-immunity.html?_r=0

there is a lot scientists are having to look at including whether is natural or acquired immunity or both happening that is helping the indigenous population survive ebola.

http://news.ufl.edu/archive/2014/10...a-virus-may-be-creating-its-own-immunity.html


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## BlackFeather (Jun 17, 2014)

Ebola can be passed by people showing no symptoms according to this...

http://www.wnd.com/2014/10/ebola-victims-without-symptoms-could-still-be-contagious/

While searching for the above article I saw Ebola mortality is 70%


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