# Dow is Down 11% for Week - So Far



## MoonRiver (Sep 2, 2007)

How Low Can It Go?

I'm thinking it might hit 20%. Panic from covid-19 just starting now.


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## SLADE (Feb 20, 2004)

Round and round it goes.
Where it stops.
No one knows.


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## robin416 (Dec 29, 2019)

Much of it is because of the effect that Covid is going to have on the supply side. So much comes out of China whether a small component or the entire item it's going to have an impact. Then toss in India which also supplies quite a bit.


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

MoonRiver said:


> *Panic* from covid-19 just starting now.


Panic and manipulation.

Everyone is freaking out because it's losing what's been gained this year, but if you go back a little further you'll see it's still better than it was not that long ago. 

Don't be fooled into thinking this is some huge crash.


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## SLADE (Feb 20, 2004)

Don't be fooled that it's not.


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## Alice In TX/MO (May 10, 2002)

Don’t be fooled either way. Make plans on what to buy.


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

SRSLADE said:


> Don't be fooled that it's not.


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## SLADE (Feb 20, 2004)




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## MoonRiver (Sep 2, 2007)

Bearfootfarm said:


> Panic and manipulation.
> 
> Everyone is freaking out because it's losing what's been gained this year, but if you go back a little further you'll see it's still better than it was not that long ago.
> 
> Don't be fooled into thinking this is some huge crash.


I got out last week, so I'm just watching.


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

MoonRiver said:


> I got out last week, so I'm just watching.


It's soon going to be a good time to buy.


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## MoonRiver (Sep 2, 2007)

Bearfootfarm said:


> It's soon going to be a good time to buy.


My gut says no. I've been watching CNBC and they are all talking about making your list and start buying. Yet, I don't remember a single one of them warning that the virus might tank the stock market.

Fortunately, I found a series of videos on youtube written by a partner in an investment firm who also is a Ph D in the medical field. Every day he explains what is really going on, what the data means, how the virus is spread, effect on supply chain, etc. He had been saying for a week or 2 that stock markets world wide were being propped up because they should be reacting to supply chain problems, and until this week they didn't. The stock market is supposed to be forward looking and it didn't see what was right in front of it.

Plus, I think there is a political component to this based on it being an election year.


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

MoonRiver said:


> Plus, I think there is a political component to this based on it being an election year.


That's why I said "manipulated".

The left would love to see a bad economy leading into the elections.
People panicking and selling drives the market down too. 

Simply *talking* about shortages can *create* shortages that would have never happened otherwise:

https://priceonomics.com/the-great-toilet-paper-scare-of-1973/
"Like most scares, the toilet paper fiasco *all started with an unsubstantiated rumor*. In November of 1973, several news agencies reported a tissue shortage in Japan. Initially, the release went unnoticed and nobody seemed to put much stock in it -- save for one Harold V. Froelich. Froelich, a 41-year-old Republican congressman, presided over a heavily-forested district in Wisconsin and had recently been receiving complaints from constituents about a reduced stream of pulp paper. 

On November 16th, he released his own press statement -- “_The Government Printing Office is facing a serious shortage of paper_” -- to little fanfare. 

However, a few weeks later, Froelich uncovered a document that indicated the government’s National Buying Center had fallen far short of securing bids to provide toilet paper for its troops and bureaucrats. On December 11, he issued another, more serious press release:

_“The U.S. may face a serious shortage of toilet paper within a few months...we hope we don’t have to ration toilet tissue...a toilet paper shortage is no laughing matter. It is a problem that will potentially touch every American.”_

In the climate of shortages, oil scares, and economic duress, Froelich’s claim was absorbed without an iota of doubt, and the media ran wild with it. Wire services, radio hosts, and international correspondents all sensationalized the story; words like “may” and “potentially” were lost in translation, and the shortage was reported as a doomed truth. Television stations aired footage from the Scott Paper Company -- one of the ten largest producers in the U.S. -- of toilet paper rolls shooting off the production line.

The ground had been set for a consumer panic; all it needed was a spark to ignite it. When *Johnny Carson cracked a joke about toilet paper* on his television talk show, things got serious. “You know, we’ve got all sorts of shortages these days,” he told 20 million viewers. “But have you heard the latest? I’m not kidding. I saw it in the papers. There’s a shortage of toilet paper!”

Absolute madness ensued. Millions of Americans swarmed grocery outlets and hoarded all the toilet paper they could get their hands on. “I heard it on the news, so I brought 15 extra rolls,” one customer told _The New York Times_. “For my baby shower,” said another, “I told my party guests to bring toilet paper.” In the chaos, company officers and industry leaders told the public to remain calm; store owners ordered astronomical quantities of toilet paper, and set limits of two rolls per customer. Nobody seemed to play by the rules. 

“*If people wouldn’t hoard and get so excited about this, everything would be okay,*” a supermarket executive told the _St. Petersburg Times_. He subsequently increased his toilet paper from 39 cents to 69 per roll, but customers still cleared his shelves each day. Merchandisers struggled to re-stock supplies, as the boxcars they relied on for shipments were in high demand by thousands of other stores."


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## MoonRiver (Sep 2, 2007)

Here's today's video.
Coronavirus Situation Is Quickly Going From Bad To Worse.
You probably will need to find the beginning as it is streaming.


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## SLADE (Feb 20, 2004)

The cover up begins.


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## Alice In TX/MO (May 10, 2002)

Buy Low. Buy dividend producing stocks. Hold on. Wait.

Buy Low again.


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## MoonRiver (Sep 2, 2007)

Alice In TX/MO said:


> Buy Low. Buy dividend producing stocks. Hold on. Wait.
> 
> Buy Low again.


Right now I have 2 short etf's (great), and 1 utility and 1 utility etf. Both utilities have been killed this week. So much for safe stocks. Fortunately, my short etf's more than made up for the loss. I just checked and my utilities were down about 5% today, so not as bad as the market.


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## mreynolds (Jan 1, 2015)

My loan broker texted me today and said if I wanted a loan he could give me a real good deal right now due to the panic. But if I waited a few weeks the deal may be off. Wanted to meet right away. I told him I would catch him next week. 

I didn't realize interest rates were going down also.


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## HermitJohn (May 10, 2002)

This is where dollar cost averaging shines. Buy on way down, sell on way up.

But honest this has been stale market for some time now, its just finally found an excuse for a correction.


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## robin416 (Dec 29, 2019)

They've been talking for over a year now about a market correction. Looks like it's happening.


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## Alice In TX/MO (May 10, 2002)

Exactamundo. Been waiting for an opportunity!


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

HermitJohn said:


> But honest this has been stale market for some time now, its just finally found an excuse for *a correction*.


Exactly. 
This drop was going to happen eventually anyway.


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

https://www.thebalance.com/stock-market-correction-3305863
"*A stock market correction is* *when the market falls 10 percent from its 52-week high*.

Wise investors welcome it. 

The pullback in prices allows the market to consolidate before going toward higher highs. 

*Each of the bull markets in the last 40 years has had a correction. 
It's a natural part of the market cycle. "

Causes*
"*A correction is caused by an event that creates panicked selling*. It can be a gut-wrenching time. Many beginning investors will feel like joining the mad dash to the exits. 

That's exactly the wrong thing to do. Why? The stock market makes up the losses in three months or so. 

*If you sell during the correction, you will probably not buy in time to make up for your losses*.

*Corrections are inevitable.* When the stock market is going up, investors want to get in on the potential profits. It leads to irrational exuberance. That makes stock prices go well above their underlying value. A correction happens when prices return to a sensible level."


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## MoonRiver (Sep 2, 2007)

I don't think the supply chain problems and cost of the virus are factored in yet. Some companies are probably over sold, but some still have a way to go (down) yet. 

I wouldn't want to be an Uber driver.


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)




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## gilberte (Sep 25, 2004)

Put your quarter in and pull the handle. You can do the same thing in Vegas.


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## mreynolds (Jan 1, 2015)

gilberte said:


> Put your quarter in and pull the handle. You can do the same thing in Vegas.


Except in Vegas I can't put a quarter in, watch it lose, and walk out with 18 cents from that same quarter. Then on the drive home watch that same quarter turn into 30 cents before I go to bed at night.


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## GTX63 (Dec 13, 2016)

A market correction wasn't a maybe; it was going to happen.
Current events just gave it the nudge to happen now.
Buy up while the buying is good.


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## Farmerga (May 6, 2010)

You know what I have done? I have upped the money that I am putting in the SM. Wonderful time to buy. If you are a silly day trader, I suppose these are the times that try men's souls, but, it is simply a natural panic that will seem silly in a few weeks and the markets will calm and rise.


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## GTX63 (Dec 13, 2016)

Anti money, anti stock market/wall street, class envy, need to blame, etc types will try to foist the low information American with hype and rhetoric and use the news as a tool to lead them to their own pov.
If you know better, then you will do better.


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## HDRider (Jul 21, 2011)

Patience.

The thing that disturbs me is how some are using the virus to stir division and discord. Those are vile people.


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## geo in mi (Nov 14, 2008)

Most of the stock market is driven by fear and greed. Sensible people invest in good quality land.

In order to survive in this world you have to have ice water in your veins---or peace in your heart. I prefer the latter.

geo


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

HDRider said:


> The thing that disturbs me is how some are using the virus to stir division and discord. Those are vile people.


"Never let a crisis go to waste"
Some live to stir the pot while simultaneously playing the victim.


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## MoonRiver (Sep 2, 2007)

I seem to be the only one that believes this is worse than a normal correction. I was watching fast money last night on CNBC and there was one question that really stopped traders in their tracks. When your parents call, what are you going to tell them to do?

It was amazing how quickly their strategy changed. If you are younger and want to take a gamble that has usually paid off in the past, then start buying. If you are like me and need the money to live on, then you need to protect your assets. If I had stayed in with the stocks I owned, I would be down about $15k. I would much rather wait until it is much safer to buy back in, as I am looking for dividends over growth.

Here's why I think this is worse than a normal pullback. Like others have said, we were due. OK, say 10% is the pullback. Now we have to account for the coronavirus. Supply chain disruptions are still largely unknown. We don't really know the economic impact.

Let's say a Chinese factory makes car starters, but they depend on 3 other Chinese factories for the components. All 4 factories have to be online and producing or starters don't ship. Now think about that for the entire vehicle. A single factory producing a single part might shut down the assembly line.

No one believes China is telling the truth about how many have the virus, etc, yet China has been providing lower and lower numbers indicating they have it under control and factories are starting back up. Maybe China is telling the truth and the worst is over, or maybe they lowered the numbers just to get people to go back to work and the number of new cases is going to skyrocket and the factories shut back down. You make the call.

Next we are seeing schools closing in Asia and Europe. Airlines and cruise stocks in the tank. Potential shutdowns in US. So conservatively, let's say the coronavirus is worth another down 5 points on the stock market, so we are down 15%, which is where we are now.

The entire developed world, with the possible exception of US is about to go into recession. Whether US goes into recession or not is almost immaterial. growth this year will be minimal. So that's another 5% down on the stock market.

Maybe we are at a bottom, for now. But what will happen if the virus breaks out in large cities and schools and businesses shut down? Does the market hold? And what happens if there is a recession this summer? Does the market still hold?

This is one of those times where 3 bad things are all happening at once and people are reacting to it like it is a typical pullback. When it comes to the stock market I am often wrong, but when it comes to analyzing a problem, I'm usually right.

Maybe the market bottoms, and then a couple weeks from now panic breaks out in NYC and San Francisco over the virus, and the market drops another 5 points. Maybe warm weather stops the virus for this season, but the recession hits and drives the market down. I think it is going to be a very bumpy ride for the next 6-12 months, and the fact it is an election year will only make it worse.

Some people will get rich and some will lose a fortune.


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

MoonRiver said:


> If I had stayed in with the stocks I owned, *I would be down* about $15k.


You're never "down" a penny if you *don't* sell.



MoonRiver said:


> Let's say a Chinese factory makes car starters, but they depend on 3 other Chinese factories for the components. All 4 factories have to be online and producing or starters don't ship. Now think about that for the entire vehicle. *A single factory producing a single part might shut down the assembly line*.


That's no different than it's always been.

You can "what if" yourself into a frenzy, or you can simply carry on and adapt to the changes that *actually* happen.

Hopefully this will be a wake up call that shows people the importance of maintaining a domestic manufacturing capability even if it means paying a little more for some products.


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## robin416 (Dec 29, 2019)

One of the points/questions you raised is very important to consider. Age and the market. If you're retired and relying on that money to live on immediately you can't afford to lose that high of a percentage in your retirement account. Sure if you're young enough to watch it slowly recover, stay with it. But if you're not either move your funds to bonds or cash or get out and reinvest when it's safer to do so.


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## Alice In TX/MO (May 10, 2002)

If you are retired and partly invested in the stock market, expecting a correction is part of your strategy. You would have made investment changes already. 

Diversification.


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## MoonRiver (Sep 2, 2007)

Alice In TX/MO said:


> If you are retired and partly invested in the stock market, expecting a correction is part of your strategy. You would have made investment changes already.
> 
> Diversification.


And what diversification would have gotten you through this?

My strategy worked better. Sell my longs and buy shorts.


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

MoonRiver said:


> My strategy worked better. Sell my longs and buy shorts.


You could have kept what you had and still bought others, and then you'd have more altogether.
There's no "loss" until you sell.


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## Alice In TX/MO (May 10, 2002)

Diversification in real estate, both commercial and residential. Pasture lease. Fruit and nut sales. 

Diversification in the market, but primarily in income producing stocks. I won’t be selling anything. No need.


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## MoonRiver (Sep 2, 2007)

He is known as Dr Doom, but he also predicted the 2008 financial crisis.

Nouriel Roubini, a New York University business professor and market prognosticator who foretold the housing bubble burst, told _Yahoo Finance_ on Friday to expect "severe" consequences as the coronavirus continues to rattle markets. How severe? He told _Der Spiegel_ it could be worse than investors even believe at this point, predicting "global equities to tank by 30 to 40 percent this year."

https://theweek.com/speedreads/8991...says-economist-who-predicted-financial-crisis​


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## Hiro (Feb 14, 2016)

MoonRiver said:


> He is known as Dr Doom, but he also predicted the 2008 financial crisis.
> 
> Nouriel Roubini, a New York University business professor and market prognosticator who foretold the housing bubble burst, told _Yahoo Finance_ on Friday to expect "severe" consequences as the coronavirus continues to rattle markets. How severe? He told _Der Spiegel_ it could be worse than investors even believe at this point, predicting "global equities to tank by 30 to 40 percent this year."
> 
> https://theweek.com/speedreads/8991...says-economist-who-predicted-financial-crisis​


A stopped clock is right twice a day. People like Roubini, Schiff and Rogers, and crew that constantly are calling for the demise of equity markets are amusing. They may be right this time, but when central banks around the world have infinite access to keyboards that move decimal points and are determined to prevent market chaos, it is unwise to bet heavily against them, imho.

Don't invest for the end of the world, it only happens once and hasn't happened yet and I am not sure it will help you with the zombie hoards to have a nice portfolio. FWIW, when you see EVERYTHING selling (government bonds are still in high demand) it may be worth thinking the money changers have lost control. That hasn't happened.


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## MoonRiver (Sep 2, 2007)

Hiro said:


> A stopped clock is right twice a day. People like Roubini, Schiff and Rogers, and crew that constantly are calling for the demise of equity markets are amusing. They may be right this time, but when central banks around the world have infinite access to keyboards that move decimal points and are determined to prevent market chaos, it is unwise to bet heavily against them, imho.
> 
> Don't invest for the end of the world, it only happens once and hasn't happened yet and I am not sure it will help you with the zombie hoards to have a nice portfolio. FWIW, when you see EVERYTHING selling (government bonds are still in high demand) it may be worth thinking the money changers have lost control. That hasn't happened.


So you are leaving your money in the stock market?


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## Elevenpoint (Nov 17, 2009)

A correction has been on the horizon for a few months.


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## Hiro (Feb 14, 2016)

MoonRiver said:


> So you are leaving your money in the stock market?


I bought today. But, Alice is spot on with diversification. If you are worried because the markets have dropped 10%, you did the right thing lightening up. You do not need to have any money that you might need in the next 5 years invested in equities.


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## MoonRiver (Sep 2, 2007)

Hiro said:


> I bought today. But, Alice is spot on with diversification. If you are worried because the markets have dropped 10%, you did the right thing lightening up. You do not need to have any money that you might need in the next 5 years invested in equities.


I bought some today too. A tech company and increased my shorts.


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## Hiro (Feb 14, 2016)

MoonRiver said:


> I bought some today too. A tech company and increased my shorts.


Just some friendly advice, don't buy short etf's. Buy long VIX if you think the market is going down, the return is much better if the market falls.


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## 101pigs (Sep 18, 2018)

MoonRiver said:


> I bought some today too. A tech company and increased my shorts.


I chicken out. Like i have 4 other times in the past 60 years. I sold everything. Over the past 12 years i have done very well in the market. I will not get back in untill after the DT election. Then i will take a good look at things. I did buy a section of timber land that i have been looking at for sometime. It has enough oak timber on it that i will harvest in the next 5 mos. that will pay for the amount that i paid for the propertry.


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## MoonRiver (Sep 2, 2007)

Hiro said:


> Just some friendly advice, don't buy short etf's. Buy long VIX if you think the market is going down, the return is much better if the market falls.


I am not putting much in. I just figured I would try to make a little on the way down. It makes me feel good that after getting hit the last 3 times, I dodged a bullet this time.


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## Cabin Fever (May 10, 2002)

It's kinda like buying a brand new car. As soon as you drive it off of the lot, it's value drops about 20%.


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## Hiro (Feb 14, 2016)

MoonRiver said:


> I am not putting much in. I just figured I would try to make a little on the way down. It makes me feel good that after getting hit the last 3 times, I dodged a bullet this time.


No one ever gets hurt taking a profit. You timed this well. Next time, if you time it well, I hope you make more.


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## mreynolds (Jan 1, 2015)

MoonRiver said:


> He is known as Dr Doom, but he also predicted the 2008 financial crisis.
> 
> Nouriel Roubini, a New York University business professor and market prognosticator who foretold the housing bubble burst, told _Yahoo Finance_ on Friday to expect "severe" consequences as the coronavirus continues to rattle markets. How severe? He told _Der Spiegel_ it could be worse than investors even believe at this point, predicting "global equities to tank by 30 to 40 percent this year."
> 
> https://theweek.com/speedreads/8991...says-economist-who-predicted-financial-crisis​


Cool beans. I made a killing in 2009-2010. As most other people did that held the line. Including my parents who were living off of theirs. 

If you take the recommended 4% each month then you will still be ok. If you are really worried then eat beans and cornbread instead until it comes back up.


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## mreynolds (Jan 1, 2015)

MoonRiver said:


> So you are leaving your money in the stock market?


If it was in there when it went down, then taking it out *now* is exactly the wrong thing to do.


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## MoonRiver (Sep 2, 2007)

mreynolds said:


> If it was in there when it went down, then taking it out *now* is exactly the wrong thing to do.


Not if it goes down another 10 percent.


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## mreynolds (Jan 1, 2015)

MoonRiver said:


> Not if it goes down another 10 percent.


You still have the exact same number of shares that you did before. You haven't lost money yet. You just think you have. If you take it out that is when you have lost money. 

If you pulled it out before like you did then you are aces.


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## MoonRiver (Sep 2, 2007)

mreynolds said:


> You still have the exact same number of shares that you did before. You haven't lost money yet. You just think you have. If you take it out that is when you have lost money.
> 
> If you pulled it out before like you did then you are aces.


You sound like someone on CNBC. Your net worth is less, whether one sells the stocks or not. There is no guarantee a person will make their money back in a reasonable time frame. Is it better than pulling your money out near the bottom and not reinvesting? Of course, but that doesn't mean it is the best strategy.

I can't say for sure, but I would think the stocks one wants to own after a market pullback aren't necessarily the ones one owned at market peak. It looks like technology will lead the market back up, so wouldn't someone want to be overweight tech?


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## Fishindude (May 19, 2015)

Slow and steady wins the race.
Jumping back and forth moving investments around all the time due to what you hear on the news is a poor strategy. Invest in things you understand and pick a program you can stay with long term, then hold the course.


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## mreynolds (Jan 1, 2015)

MoonRiver said:


> You sound like someone on CNBC. Your net worth is less, whether one sells the stocks or not. There is no guarantee a person will make their money back in a reasonable time frame. Is it better than pulling your money out near the bottom and not reinvesting? Of course, but that doesn't mean it is the best strategy.
> 
> I can't say for sure, but I would think the stocks one wants to own after a market pullback aren't necessarily the ones one owned at market peak. It looks like technology will lead the market back up, so wouldn't someone want to be overweight tech?


Lol, I'll put in my application then. Maybe they will put me right after Mad Money. 

I used to try and time the market and had pretty good luck. I did learn that it was just luck though. I found diversity was a better strategy. Not just stocks but other stuff too.


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## MoonRiver (Sep 2, 2007)

mreynolds said:


> I used to try and time the market and had pretty good luck. I did learn that it was just luck though. I found diversity was a better strategy. Not just stocks but other stuff too.


Unfortunately, for health reasons I had to retire early and health insurance used up a large part of my savings. I just have to be extra cautious as I can't take a $10k-$20k loss at my age. There might not be enough years left to make it back.


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## mreynolds (Jan 1, 2015)

MoonRiver said:


> Unfortunately, for health reasons I had to retire early and health insurance used up a large part of my savings. I just have to be extra cautious as I can't take a $10k-$20k loss at my age. There might not be enough years left to make it back.


Sounds like you timed it perfect this go 'round.


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

MoonRiver said:


> Not if it goes down another 10 percent.


Even if it goes down 50%, there is no actual 'loss" until you sell.


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## MoonRiver (Sep 2, 2007)

Bearfootfarm said:


> Even if it goes down 50%, there is no actual 'loss" until you sell.


Tell that to these guys.

According to reports, the ten richest people in the world lost a collective $30 billion. The world’s wealthiest person, Amazon’s Jeff Bezos, saw his net worth slide by $4.8 billion to just under $123 billion as shares of his e-commerce monopoly slumped 4%.
CEO of French luxury conglomerate LVMH, Bernard Arnault, lost a similar percentage as his wealth slipped to a mere $100 billion.
Billionaire Facebook boss Mark Zuckerberg also got stung as his firm’s stock slumped 4.5% yesterday which cost him $3.4 billion.
Elon Musk was in greater pain as his Tesla stock crashed 7.5% costing the tech mogul $2.4 billion. The company suffered more than the rest due to its reliance on a recently opened factory in China the report added.
https://cryptonewsmonitor.com/2020/...billions-in-stock-rout-is-bitcoin-the-answer/​


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## MoonRiver (Sep 2, 2007)

Bearfootfarm said:


> Even if it goes down 50%, there is no actual 'loss" until you sell.


I've always thought that was dumb when the stock guys said it. What they really mean is it's not a TAXABLE loss until you sell it.

Let's say you are applying for credit and you have to list the value of your assets. Do you use the current value of your stocks or the value from 2 weeks ago?

Or if the value of your house goes down by $50k, do you still list the highest value or the current value?


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## Alice In TX/MO (May 10, 2002)

The financial world has word and definition issues, too.

While the value of your portfolio may go down or up on any given market day or cycle, you haven't truly gained or lost anything until you sell.

The news is dumbed down for the 50% lower than average intelligence audience.


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

MoonRiver said:


> *Let's say* you are applying for credit and you have to list the value of your assets. Do you use the current value of your stocks or the value from 2 weeks ago?
> 
> *Or if* the value of your house goes down by $50k, do you still list the highest value or the current value?


Hypotheticals 

A bank won't typically ask you to list the value of your stocks.
They can look that up for themselves.
They might want to know what stocks you own, and the number of shares.


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

MoonRiver said:


> Tell that to these guys.


More hypotheticals.
They've "lost" nothing but projected numbers on paper unless they sell shares at that price.
Your source is a site pushing Bitcoins, which is a total fantasy currency in itself.


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## 101pigs (Sep 18, 2018)

MoonRiver said:


> Unfortunately, for health reasons I had to retire early and health insurance used up a large part of my savings. I just have to be extra cautious as I can't take a $10k-$20k loss at my age. There might not be enough years left to make it back.


Getting out when its time is the most important thing you can do. If it starts to go back up you can decide what you want and go for it. Why worry and possible loose everything. Years back my stock advisor told me to hang in there and it will go back up. I lost 200k that was a lesson i will never forget. It took a few years to gain that money back. Two of the compaies i had went belly up.


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## mreynolds (Jan 1, 2015)

MoonRiver said:


> I've always thought that was dumb when the stock guys said it. What they really mean is *it's not a TAXABLE loss until you sell it*.
> 
> Let's say you are applying for credit and you have to list the value of your assets. Do you use the current value of your stocks or the value from 2 weeks ago?
> 
> Or if the value of your house goes down by $50k, do you still list the highest value or the current value?


One thing you could do is convert your IRA into a ROTH now. You will still pay taxes on it but at a lesser amount now. 

IE, if you had 10k shares in an IRA valued at 100K but now have 10k shares valued at 90k, you would only be paying tax on the 90k. Any gains received after that would be non taxable. You would gain twice the money on your returns because it's tax free.


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## Hiro (Feb 14, 2016)

mreynolds said:


> One thing you could do is convert your IRA into a ROTH now. You will still pay taxes on it but at a lesser amount now.
> 
> IE, if you had 10k shares in an IRA valued at 100K but now have 10k shares valued at 90k, you would only be paying tax on the 90k. Any gains received after that would be non taxable. You would gain twice the money on your returns because it's tax free.


Converting a traditional IRA to a Roth is a very complex decision tree, especially the older you get. Paying income tax (granted penalty free) right now and then getting tax free distributions later works much better the younger you are. You also have to pay the income taxes out of current non-IRA savings OR if you withhold from the traditional IRA to pay those taxes, that amount is subject to the early withdrawal....if you are under 59 1/2.


----------



## mreynolds (Jan 1, 2015)

Hiro said:


> Converting a traditional IRA to a Roth is a very complex decision tree, especially the older you get. Paying income tax (granted penalty free) right now and then getting tax free distributions later works much better the younger you are. You also have to pay the income taxes out of current non-IRA savings OR if you withhold from the traditional IRA to pay those taxes, that amount is subject to the early withdrawal....if you are under 59 1/2.


You wont be subject to the 10% penalty because it is considered a roll over. I make a transfer every time the market goes down penalty free into my ROTH. I do have to wait the traditional 5 years before I can draw that transferred money (penalty free) but any money already in there I can withdraw (after age 59 1/2 of course which I am not yet). But if you do this you likely wont want to withdraw until after 5 years anyway. You will have to pay tax on the transfer but if you do this you will transfer 15% more shares this week than you could have last week due to the drawdown. Then tax free from there. 

This isn't for everyone obviously but it is an option for some.


----------



## Hiro (Feb 14, 2016)

mreynolds said:


> You wont be subject to the 10% penalty because it is considered a roll over. I make a transfer every time the market goes down penalty free into my ROTH. I do have to wait the traditional 5 years before I can draw that transferred money (penalty free) but any money already in there I can withdraw (after age 59 1/2 of course which I am not yet). But if you do this you likely wont want to withdraw until after 5 years anyway. You will have to pay tax on the transfer but if you do this you will transfer 15% more shares this week than you could have last week due to the drawdown. Then tax free from there.
> 
> This isn't for everyone obviously but it is an option for some.


I have been doing a partial conversion every year since I quit getting a W-2 and they upped the tax credit on children. 2019 was a hard year to do that as the market never really fell much. I ran out of time and did it the last week of the year. I am not certain how old Moon River is, but when you get over 60 those benefits go down dramatically. Giving out generic advice in regards to such conversions is not something I would consider doing. Giving out information and suggesting investigating it further is helpful.


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## newfieannie (Dec 24, 2006)

do any of us have to worry about our money in the regular banks. i'm asking because i dont know anything about it. i know i dont have to worry about the dow. i'm probably one of the 50% lower intelligent audience that Alice mentioned. wouldn't my financial planner have called me about it if i did have to worry. ~Georgia


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## mreynolds (Jan 1, 2015)

Hiro said:


> I have been doing a partial conversion every year since I quit getting a W-2 and they upped the tax credit on children. 2019 was a hard year to do that as the market never really fell much. I ran out of time and did it the last week of the year. I am not certain how old Moon River is, but when you get over 60 those benefits go down dramatically. Giving out generic advice in regards to such conversions is not something I would consider doing. Giving out information and suggesting investigating it further is helpful.


For sure Moon wont do it but he already has his own finances down pat it seems. I was only commenting on his statement about taxable when you sell. Plus everyone has a broker that advises them but the usual problem there is they don't make that much so advice is scarce. Sometimes you have to hit them up for advice by throwing them a curve ball.


----------



## mreynolds (Jan 1, 2015)

newfieannie said:


> do any of us have to worry about our money in the regular banks. i'm asking because i dont know anything about it. i know i dont have to worry about the dow. i'm probably one of the 50% lower intelligent audience that Alice mentioned. wouldn't my financial planner have called me about it if i did have to worry. ~Georgia


 Regular banks should be fine. And your advisor doesn't always call. You still should be alright. Looks like the DOW is trending up in the last hour after trending down all weekend. Who can predict what it will do?


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## dyrne (Feb 22, 2015)

After Chinese new year typically about 100% of people return to work. I don’t have a link in front of me but apparently this year the number is 25%. Given supply chain lags... Probably issues won’t seriously hit the US until March or April. But in short...I would not expect an upward trend for a while since the pain hasn’t really hit. Possibly this is why Jeff Bezos just cashed out 4 billion dollars worth of his stock


----------



## geo in mi (Nov 14, 2008)

As long as I don't get memory loss and didn't use a steel can, I'll have no worries.

geo


----------



## MoonRiver (Sep 2, 2007)

Europe and Asia both up today. US futures way up. My shorts will take a hit today, but I have trouble believing this is a bottom. It feels like 911 to me in terms of psychological impact. People will do less in store shopping, eat out less, stop going to movie theaters and concerts, less traveling, etc. Basically they will go to work and then go home.

Small businesses could be hit hard with many not surviving. This was one of the factors that really hurt my business at the end of 2001 into 2002. Most of my competitors went bankrupt and I was just hanging in with revenue cut in half overnight. I was a Microsoft and Novell Partner and they reacted to their loss of business by poaching business from their Partners. Plus they didn't have any new products to drive business. It was a downward spiral that kept getting worse. 

Usually a business sees things change over time and can adapt, but when something happens overnight, like the coronavirus, they don't have time to adjust. To stay in business they have to reduce costs immediately, which most won't do. By the time they realize how critical the situation is, it will be too late for some of them.

This is worse case, but having been through it, I saw just how fast a market can deteriorate. The old saying about burned once.


----------



## HDRider (Jul 21, 2011)




----------



## MoonRiver (Sep 2, 2007)

The markets are up about half of what the futures were at 4 am.


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

mreynolds said:


> Who can predict what it will do?


I can.
It will go up, then it will go down.
Rinse and repeat.



MoonRiver said:


> *It feels like 911* to me in terms of psychological impact.


It's a virus, just like so many other viruses.


----------



## HDRider (Jul 21, 2011)




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## MoonRiver (Sep 2, 2007)

Can anyone explain why the market went up so much today? Was this a real rally or did governments coordinate this move?

ETA: I guess I found the answer. G7 is going to do more helicopter money.


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## HDRider (Jul 21, 2011)

MoonRiver said:


> Can anyone explain why the market went up so much today? Was this a real rally or did governments coordinate this move?
> 
> ETA: I guess I found the answer. G7 is going to do more helicopter money.


How did governments fund this?
Which governments funded it?

You look for the Bogeyman when there is none. The market was oversold. Panicked people sold, smart people bought.


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## MoonRiver (Sep 2, 2007)

HDRider said:


> How did governments fund this?
> Which governments funded it?
> 
> You look for the Bogeyman when there is none. The market was oversold. Panicked people sold, smart people bought.


I think I found the answer. The G7 announced a meeting for tomorrow and it is expected the fed is going to cut rates. That accounted for part of the bump.

The market was oversold. That accounted for the 1st leg up this morning. Then Buttigieg dropped out making it less likely Sanders would get the nomination, so another little bump. And then just like there was panic selling last week, there was panic buying late this afternoon.

All 4 panelists on Fast Money believe this may last another day or 2 and then down again. The thing is, if anything, things look worse today than it did on Friday. The supply chain problems are still there. The coronavirus is still there. Companies are still lowering earning expectations.

Where's the money coming from? Cheap money from the Fed. Governments goosing their economies. Probably our big banks as well. They make money if the market goes up or down.


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## Hiro (Feb 14, 2016)

MoonRiver said:


> I think I found the answer. The G7 announced a meeting for tomorrow and it is expected the fed is going to cut rates. That accounted for part of the bump.
> 
> The market was oversold. That accounted for the 1st leg up this morning. Then Buttigieg dropped out making it less likely Sanders would get the nomination, so another little bump. And then just like there was panic selling last week, there was panic buying late this afternoon.
> 
> ...


Don't fight the Fed. In this case, don't fight the FRB, ECB, JCB, CCB and whatever letter followed by CB. It works until it doesn't. You will know it doesn't work when sovereign bonds rise in rates uncontrollably. Until then, they can print money without even needing the paper or ink.


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## HDRider (Jul 21, 2011)

MoonRiver said:


> I think I found the answer. The G7 announced a meeting for tomorrow and it is expected the fed is going to cut rates. That accounted for part of the bump.
> 
> The market was oversold. That accounted for the 1st leg up this morning. Then Buttigieg dropped out making it less likely Sanders would get the nomination, so another little bump. And then just like there was panic selling last week, there was panic buying late this afternoon.
> 
> ...


I trust one expert. Mr. Closing Bell


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## Hiro (Feb 14, 2016)

HDRider said:


> I trust one expert. Mr. Closing Bell


Trust no 1. Sorry as an x-files fan, it is hard to resist.


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## MoonRiver (Sep 2, 2007)

HDRider said:


> I trust one expert. Mr. Closing Bell


I sold a stock after the closing bell. It had gone up a fair amount after close.


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## MoonRiver (Sep 2, 2007)

G7 failed to act. DOW futures went from about +300 to -250

So some of the move yesterday was based on free/cheap money.


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

MoonRiver said:


> Can anyone explain why the market went up so much today?


It's what markets do.
Like a roller coaster.


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## Evons hubby (Oct 3, 2005)

MoonRiver said:


> Can anyone explain why the market went up so much today?


Greed.


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

MoonRiver said:


> G7 failed to act. DOW futures went from about +300 to -250


You'll drive yourself insane if you keep watching every little move.


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## MoonRiver (Sep 2, 2007)

Bearfootfarm said:


> You'll drive yourself insane if you keep watching every little move.


1000 point swings are not very little.

I'm fine. I'm out until things settle down.

The huge swing yesterday had something to do with the Fed and repo market, whatever that is. All I know is it involved the Fed and billions of dollars. In other words, the Fed bailed out Wall Street and ignored main street once again.


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## Evons hubby (Oct 3, 2005)

Bearfootfarm said:


> You'll drive yourself insane if you keep watching every little move.


With some, it would be a very short drive!


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## Evons hubby (Oct 3, 2005)

MoonRiver said:


> 1000 point swings are not very little.
> 
> I'm fine. I'm out until things settle down.
> 
> The huge swing yesterday had something to do with the Fed and repo market, whatever that is. All I know is it involved the Fed and billions of dollars. In other words, the Fed bailed out Wall Street and ignored main street once again.


Last I heard Main Street is busy, taking care of business. Lowest unemployment Evah! Millions escaping poverty. Nearly everyone's cup runneth over!


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## GTX63 (Dec 13, 2016)

Yvonne's hubby said:


> With some, it would be a very short drive!


I walk. It takes longer but I enjoy it more.


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## Alice In TX/MO (May 10, 2002)

Greed is not the motivation for stock market fluctuations. I manage a portfolio that was started by my maternal grandfather about 100 years ago. Buying and selling stocks, or holding them, is part of a business strategy.


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

Yvonne's hubby said:


> With some, it would be a very short drive!


I could take that trip and never leave the farm.


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## MoonRiver (Sep 2, 2007)

Oil down to 32.29 (-21.68%). Dow futures down 1,255 (-4.87%).

OPEC couldn't reach deal. Saudi ramping up production. Lots of US small oil companies in trouble. (I think I just heard Maria B say there is a 5% cap on down futures, not in effect at open).

On 2/19, Dow closed at 29,340.
3/9 Potential Open is 24,534

Down 4,806 
Down 16.4%

S&P 2000-2002








http://www.qqq-options-trading.com/images/bl/stock_market_crash_2000_2002.gif[/img]


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## Alice In TX/MO (May 10, 2002)

It’s all good. Normal. The markets respond to news. 

Hunker down.


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## Miss Kay (Mar 31, 2012)

Well look on the bright side, it should cost less to fill your tank shortly! Not that you should go anywhere since they are telling us to stay home.


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## Farmerga (May 6, 2010)

The people who get hurt on a roller coaster are the ones who get off mid ride.


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## MoonRiver (Sep 2, 2007)

Farmerga said:


> The people who get hurt on a roller coaster are the ones who get off mid ride.


So how's your portfolio doing?

I sold everything. I'm doing great!


----------



## 101pigs (Sep 18, 2018)

MoonRiver said:


> So how's your portfolio doing?
> 
> I sold everything. I'm doing great!


I sold before all the big hits. Seen it comming. Invested most of it in timber land next to my farm. Cutting the timber now to get my money back. Free land.


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## haypoint (Oct 4, 2006)

For main stream media, when the Dow drops, its news. When it was setting record highs, not too interesting. Last Wednesday, the Dow jumped 1000 points, but very light coverage. But the next day, when it dropped back 1000 points, it was on every newscast. What we are seeing is the power of the press. They can ignore 600 murders in Chicago, while giving weeks of coverage over a dozen killed by a crazy white guy. When 60,000 people died last year from the flu, it wan't news, but when 20 people die in Nursing Homes, that's terrifying! Corona virus will spread, like the flu. People will die, like the flu. Life will go on. The only difference is that half the country want the virus to be used as a tool to defeat Trump.


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## mreynolds (Jan 1, 2015)

Miss Kay said:


> Well look on the bright side, it should cost less to fill your tank shortly! Not that you should go anywhere since they are telling us to stay home.


It's a conspiracy I tell ya.


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## GTX63 (Dec 13, 2016)

The curtain has been falling away from the media for some time now. They control much more than most folks think.
Those who want to see will see; others not so much.


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## mreynolds (Jan 1, 2015)

GTX63 said:


> The curtain has been falling away from the media for some time now. They control much more than most folks think.
> Those who want to see will see; others not so much.


We found out that Oz is just a homeless Carney


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## SLADE (Feb 20, 2004)

With the stock market crashing again, will there be more excuses made as to why?


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## mreynolds (Jan 1, 2015)

SRSLADE said:


> With the stock market crashing again, will there be more excuses made as to why?


No. Just reasons.


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## SLADE (Feb 20, 2004)

That would be a refreshing change.


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## GTX63 (Dec 13, 2016)

Blame, just like worry, does little to nothing other than to the person blaming and worrying.


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## Farmerga (May 6, 2010)

MoonRiver said:


> So how's your portfolio doing?
> 
> I sold everything. I'm doing great!


Year over year, I am doing about 15%. The lower it goes, the more I will put in it.


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## HDRider (Jul 21, 2011)

The US is going to see a lots of lost jobs in the energy sector.

Russia and Saudi Arabia have a lower cost of production than the US. Them going this low will cease exploration, drilling and pumping in the US.


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## MoonRiver (Sep 2, 2007)

HDRider said:


> The US is going to see a lots of lost jobs in the energy sector.
> 
> Russia and Saudi Arabia have a lower cost of production than the US. Them going this low will cease exploration, drilling and pumping in the US.


Probably, but that's because a lot of companies were already on shaky footing.

I bet Trump has already talked to Putin and Saudi Arabia and told them to knock it off immediately. Saudi will because they need Trump and Putin will because he can't handle any more US sanctions. It might last a few more days or even a couple of weeks to hurt Russia, but I can't see it lasting very long.


----------



## HDRider (Jul 21, 2011)

MoonRiver said:


> Probably, but that's because a lot of companies were already on shaky footing.
> 
> I bet Trump has already talked to Putin and Saudi Arabia and told them to knock it off immediately. Saudi will because they need Trump and Putin will because he can't handle any more US sanctions. It might last a few more days or even a couple of weeks to hurt Russia, but I can't see it lasting very long.


Bankruptcies , and being overextended is common with small outfits.

I am not sure there is much anyone can do if demand for oil drops further, and I expect it will.


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## SLADE (Feb 20, 2004)

The fracking came with a lot of debt.


----------



## 101pigs (Sep 18, 2018)

SRSLADE said:


> The fracking came with a lot of debt.


Fracking will be on the down now. Under 2 bucks a gal for regular fracking is not to good. Love the price drops on gasoline. Hope the market falls 1500 plus. When it starts to go up i will go back in. This may last till after the election. I can dream can't i.


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

MoonRiver said:


> I sold everything. I'm doing great!


I still have all mine and haven't lost a penny.


----------



## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

SRSLADE said:


> That would be a refreshing change.


That would just be the SS on a DD.


----------



## mreynolds (Jan 1, 2015)

SRSLADE said:


> The fracking came with a lot of debt.


Fracking is mostly done on gas wells.


----------



## SLADE (Feb 20, 2004)

Bearfootfarm said:


> That would just be the SS on a DD.


that would be TCS


----------



## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

SRSLADE said:


> that would be TCH


You can't seem to resist making everything political.


----------



## HDRider (Jul 21, 2011)

Bearfootfarm said:


> You can't seem to resist making everything political.


She thinks she is being cute, or cool.

Seems like a syndrome


----------



## GTX63 (Dec 13, 2016)

She? Oops on me.


----------



## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

GTX63 said:


> She? Oops on me.


Don't ask, don't tell, don't assume.


----------



## HDRider (Jul 21, 2011)

Oil dropping in price like this will knock the wind out of alternative energy development and deployment. Lights out for industrial solar power gen.


----------



## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

HDRider said:


> Lights out for industrial *solar* power gen.


Wait..........What?..............But it's "free".


----------



## gilberte (Sep 25, 2004)

Anyone who believes this downturn in oil prices is anything but of temporary is delusional.


----------



## HDRider (Jul 21, 2011)

gilberte said:


> Anyone who believes this downturn in oil prices is anything but of temporary is delusional.


How long will it last? 3 months, 6, a year?


----------



## gilberte (Sep 25, 2004)

If that information was available to me I wouldn't be sitting here talking to you, but you know as well as I do how dependent the world is on oil, that it is a finite resource, and that development of a viable alternative is not on the immediate horizon.


----------



## HDRider (Jul 21, 2011)




----------



## SLADE (Feb 20, 2004)

I bought some extra pork and beans this week.


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## MoonRiver (Sep 2, 2007)

Dipped my toe back in. My little toe.


----------



## 101pigs (Sep 18, 2018)

MoonRiver said:


> Dipped my toe back in. My little toe.


Let us know how much you lose


----------



## MoonRiver (Sep 2, 2007)

101pigs said:


> Let us know how much you lose


The world as we know it would cease to exist if I lose over $400.


----------



## coolrunnin (Aug 28, 2010)

HDRider said:


> Oil dropping in price like this will knock the wind out of alternative energy development and deployment. Lights out for industrial solar power gen.


I would think you're wrong, that stuff is planned months if not years in advance.

Still seeing a lot of components for wind m9ving out in Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas.


----------



## mreynolds (Jan 1, 2015)

SRSLADE said:


> I bought some extra pork and beans this week.


Should I go long on pork bellies now?


----------



## SLADE (Feb 20, 2004)

mreynolds said:


> Should I go long on pork bellies now?


Only if you have the freezer space.


----------



## Chris in Mich (May 13, 2002)

I saw a 100' plus turbine blade on a double-dolly rig a couple weeks back on the highway -- quite a sight.


----------



## keenataz (Feb 17, 2009)

gilberte said:


> If that information was available to me I wouldn't be sitting here talking to you, but you know as well as I do how dependent the world is on oil, that it is a finite resource, and that development of a viable alternative is not on the immediate horizon.


We have been told that oil is a finite resouce for 45 years now. And yet there is always more.


----------



## keenataz (Feb 17, 2009)

coolrunnin said:


> I would think you're wrong, that stuff is planned months if not years in advance.
> 
> Still seeing a lot of components for wind m9ving out in Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas.


Yup. This past winter there have been trucks with parts heading east through here.


----------



## keenataz (Feb 17, 2009)

Chris in Mich said:


> I saw a 100' plus turbine blade on a double-dolly rig a couple weeks back on the highway -- quite a sight.


Yup people have no idea how huge these things are until you see them like that. They are restricted on hours they can use our highways, so you sometimes see a convoy pulled over for the day.


----------



## HDRider (Jul 21, 2011)

coolrunnin said:


> I would think you're wrong, that stuff is planned months if not years in advance.
> 
> Still seeing a lot of components for wind m9ving out in Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas.


You might be right on stuff in play.


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## MoonRiver (Sep 2, 2007)

I'm up $17. Should I sell or let it ride?


----------



## mreynolds (Jan 1, 2015)

MoonRiver said:


> I'm up $17. Should I sell or let it ride?


Buy some pork bellies.


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## nchobbyfarm (Apr 10, 2011)

mreynolds said:


> Buy some pork bellies.


So you can then buy a GI Joe with the king fu grip with the profits!


----------



## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

keenataz said:


> *This past winter* there have been trucks with parts heading east through here.


That was before the Corona Crash and falling oil prices.


----------



## SLADE (Feb 20, 2004)

I was wondering how the market will react to the rousing speech we heard last night?


----------



## barnbilder (Jul 1, 2005)

Glad my accountant talked me into selling everything, at a loss if necessary, and dumping everything into Purel and Charmin.


----------



## Alice In TX/MO (May 10, 2002)

LOL Really? Or a clever comment?


----------



## MoonRiver (Sep 2, 2007)

MoonRiver said:


> The world as we know it would cease to exist if I lose over $400.


We may have reached the point where the world as we know it ceases to exist.

Never mind. For some reason, my account started showing my account using pre-market value. So when the market opened, my balance actually went up!


----------



## Alice In TX/MO (May 10, 2002)

Actually, I was just commenting that I am so glad that I am not in the classroom and my husband retired. 

My concern is the impact on my sons’s jobs. 

Other than that, I am good.


----------



## painterswife (Jun 7, 2004)

Down another 7 percent on opening


----------



## Alice In TX/MO (May 10, 2002)

Starting to think about buying something.


----------



## painterswife (Jun 7, 2004)

Will it hit 13 percent down for the day?


----------



## SLADE (Feb 20, 2004)

Some will need a little extra toilet paper if it does.


----------



## painterswife (Jun 7, 2004)

I would say that speech did not help.


----------



## Farmerga (May 6, 2010)

This Dempanic is going to be the death of us all. The virus, not so much.


----------



## GTX63 (Dec 13, 2016)

It must suck to be miserable each day.


----------



## SLADE (Feb 20, 2004)

painterswife said:


> I would say that speech did not help.


ROUSING.


----------



## MoonRiver (Sep 2, 2007)

I'm usually wrong trying to guess what the stock market is going to do, but on this one my gut has been right on. I think we are either at bottom or within 2 points of bottom. Just a gut feeling.

ETA: I thought there would be 3 legs down:

Stock market was overpriced.
Immediate shock of coronavirus
Recognition of the long term impact of coronavirus
That's not to say something else bad won't happen.


----------



## keenataz (Feb 17, 2009)

MoonRiver said:


> I'm usually wrong trying to guess what the stock market is going to do, but on this one my gut has been right on. I think we are either at bottom or within 2 points of bottom. Just a gut feeling.



Hope you're right.

With all the cancellations and such economies are going to be hit hard enough as it is.


----------



## newfieannie (Dec 24, 2006)

is that 400 MR or 400:000? i meant to ask you that before. i don't know anything about it but my financial planner always asks me about it . if i want to invest and stuff. 400 didn't seem like much to worry about.

i think i'll read up and see if i can learn about it so when all this is over i can invest. how did all of you guys learn about stocks and stuff? one of my husbands use to. but i couldn't learn anything from him. at that time i didn't have to though. ~Georgia


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## dyrne (Feb 22, 2015)

We're nowhere near bottom imo. 8% of the US economy is oil production and Russia is cranking out oil like there is no tomorrow despite Saudi pleas to cut production. We'll see oil drop maybe another $10 a barrel (this will flat-line great plains states that are oil based), more businesses close, consumer spending will drop further as fear spreads... remember just yesterday Italy basically shut down their entire economy -the 8th largest in the world. I'm no stock market guru, I see it as a pit of usurious degeneracy and prefer main street type investments but that's my feeling of the direction this will take.


----------



## keenataz (Feb 17, 2009)

dyrne said:


> We're nowhere near bottom imo. 8% of the US economy is oil production and Russia is cranking out oil like there is no tomorrow despite Saudi pleas to cut production. We'll see oil drop maybe another $10 a barrel (this will flat-line great plains states that are oil based), more businesses close, consumer spending will drop further as fear spreads... remember just yesterday Italy basically shut down their entire economy -the 8th largest in the world. I'm no stock market guru, I see it as a pit of usurious degeneracy and prefer main street type investments but that's my feeling of the direction this will take.



I have heard people suggest that we should shut down entirely too for a couple of weeks. Until yesterday I thought it was an over reaction, now not so sure.


----------



## MoonRiver (Sep 2, 2007)

dyrne said:


> We're nowhere near bottom imo. 8% of the US economy is oil production and Russia is cranking out oil like there is no tomorrow despite Saudi pleas to cut production. We'll see oil drop maybe another $10 a barrel (this will flat-line great plains states that are oil based), more businesses close, consumer spending will drop further as fear spreads... remember just yesterday Italy basically shut down their entire economy -the 8th largest in the world. I'm no stock market guru, I see it as a pit of usurious degeneracy and prefer main street type investments but that's my feeling of the direction this will take.


It's Saudi Arabia that's doing the pumping. They tried to get everyone to cut production and stabilize price where they could make money. Russia said no, so Saudi is flooding the market to the point Russia can't make money at that price. Of course, neither can we.


----------



## keenataz (Feb 17, 2009)

MoonRiver said:


> It's Saudi Arabia that's doing the pumping. They tried to get everyone to cut production and stabilize price where they could make money. Russia said no, so Saudi is flooding the market to the point Russia can't make money at that price. Of course, neither can we.


And that is going to be a big problem in the future. Because once our wells stop pumping and exploration stops. The Saudis will turn down the taps and $100/barrel here we come


----------



## Alice In TX/MO (May 10, 2002)

It is VERY easy to start up production of existing wells that are temporarily shut in. 

Exploration and development ALWAYS slows when the crude price falls. The companies have a list of drilling projects and workover plans. When the price goes up, the program is activated. 

Don't sweat.


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

keenataz said:


> Yup *people have no idea how huge these things are* until you see them like that.


They are 100 feet, which is slightly less than 2 normal trailers.



keenataz said:


> Because once our wells stop pumping and exploration stops. The Saudis will turn down the taps and $100/barrel here we come


Then our wells will start pumping again.
They're already drilled and ready to go.


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## MoonRiver (Sep 2, 2007)

The market today didn't make sense to me, not that it usually does. But what was different from yesterday?
There were a lot of negative things during the day, but that was hours after the pre-market showed the market would be opening down about 7%.

Then I thought, this is the perfect time for someone to manipulate the market. So what do I stumble on? An article that says short sellers are what drove the market down today.



> Where is all the selling pressure coming from? It is from *short sellers who are using the coronavirus panic to attack the market in an attempt to steal a fortune from Main Street investors*. Short sellers do not have to own stock to sell it. They borrow the stock, sell it, and hope to make money by buying back at a lower price. The short sellers are attacking the market by relentlessly borrowing more and more stock and selling it, overwhelming the Main Street buyers.


https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/20...ck-rule-immediately-to-end-the-market-crisis/


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## MoonRiver (Sep 2, 2007)

S Korea bans short selling.


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## mreynolds (Jan 1, 2015)

MoonRiver said:


> S Korea bans short selling.


For the short term or forever?


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## keenataz (Feb 17, 2009)

MoonRiver said:


> The market today didn't make sense to me, not that it usually does. But what was different from yesterday?
> There were a lot of negative things during the day, but that was hours after the pre-market showed the market would be opening down about 7%.
> 
> Then I thought, this is the perfect time for someone to manipulate the market. So what do I stumble on? An article that says short sellers are what drove the market down today.
> ...


The difference was the Trump speech. Since is GC I’ll just leave it there


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## Alice In TX/MO (May 10, 2002)

The difference was computer generated buying and selling.


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## keenataz (Feb 17, 2009)

Alice In TX/MO said:


> The difference was computer generated buying and selling.


Which has been going on for years,


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

MoonRiver said:


> Then I thought, this is the perfect time for someone to *manipulate* the market.


That's been mentioned many times.


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## mreynolds (Jan 1, 2015)

keenataz said:


> Which has been going on for years,


Yes but when you buy or short a stock you put triggers on them. If they get to a certain number it will buy or sell. 

When you short you put a trigger on it too. What happened was when the market started back up it triggered all those shorts causing it to fall again.


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## HDRider (Jul 21, 2011)




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## Alice In TX/MO (May 10, 2002)

Yup. Auto triggers. 

My son and I had a conversation a couple of weeks ago about investments. I told him to wait for the correction. 

He just called. He chuckled and said he will watch a bit more and then buy.


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## SLADE (Feb 20, 2004)

I'll wait until next week to see if I need more pork and beans.


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## mreynolds (Jan 1, 2015)

SRSLADE said:


> I'll wait until next week to see if I need more pork and beans.


I should have went long on chicken first.


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## SLADE (Feb 20, 2004)

I was leaning heavily to the pork.


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## mreynolds (Jan 1, 2015)

SRSLADE said:


> I was leaning heavily to the pork.


Eh, if the shtf I could get all the pork I need in the back pasture.


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## SLADE (Feb 20, 2004)

I may have to pull the trigger.


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## Alice In TX/MO (May 10, 2002)

Yup. A friend in Burnet posted a picture of feral pigs on his neighbor’s place. 

Tamales on the hoof.


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## mreynolds (Jan 1, 2015)

Alice In TX/MO said:


> Yup. A friend in Burnet posted a picture of feral pigs on his neighbor’s place.
> 
> Tamales on the hoof.


One attacked my best dog about a month ago. He is fine now but I will get my revenge. 

We have clearly defined roles in a bad disaster situation, my brother and I. He is the prepper and gatherer. I am the hunter, gardener and builder. I have a friend that would move into the guest house. 

I won't say what his role is.


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## InvalidID (Feb 18, 2011)

I'm up on oil shorts, but was in mostly cash otherwise. The cash position was dumb luck, oil shorts based on news.

I'm thinking Monday is a down day unless we see some good news this weekend . I'm not convinced enough to gamble on it though.


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## SLADE (Feb 20, 2004)

mreynolds said:


> One attacked my best dog about a month ago. He is fine now but I will get my revenge.
> 
> We have clearly defined roles in a bad disaster situation, my brother and I. He is the prepper and gatherer. I am the hunter, gardener and builder. I have a friend that would move into the guest house.
> 
> I won't say what his role is.


Brewer?


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## mreynolds (Jan 1, 2015)

SRSLADE said:


> Brewer?


 Our hardware merchant.


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## Alice In TX/MO (May 10, 2002)

Hmmmm


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## painterswife (Jun 7, 2004)

Looks like hitting 13 percent down in one day is not out of the question.


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## SLADE (Feb 20, 2004)

I think I need more pork and beans.
I'm just not savvy like the big time traders with insider knowledge.
I never realized how many are on here.


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## mreynolds (Jan 1, 2015)

painterswife said:


> Looks like hitting 13 percent down in one day is not out of the question.


The Fed trying to keep from deflating. I don't think it will work.


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## HDRider (Jul 21, 2011)

mreynolds said:


> The Fed trying to keep from deflating. I don't think it will work.


So you think a car, or truck, like for like, will cost less next year than it does this year?


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## Alice In TX/MO (May 10, 2002)

Depends on the supply and demand cycle. I suspect prices will go down SOON. 

Twelve months from now is too far to even guess.


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## mreynolds (Jan 1, 2015)

HDRider said:


> So you think a car, or truck, like for like, will cost less next year than it does this year?


I'm not a predictor but I did see just this morning 23% off a new Dodge ram and Jeep Gladiator at the local lot. 

Why do you think they print more money? That 500 billion is being printed right now. It's not in an account somewhere ready to spend.


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## HDRider (Jul 21, 2011)

mreynolds said:


> I'm not a predictor but I did see just this morning 23% off a new Dodge ram and Jeep Gladiator at the local lot.
> 
> Why do you think they print more money? That 500 billion is being printed right now. It's not in an account somewhere ready to spend.


Printing more money causes inflation, not deflation.


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## mreynolds (Jan 1, 2015)

HDRider said:


> Printing more money causes inflation, not deflation.


Now you understand. 

It's not working as of today. 

The interest can't go lower. 

Some countries have negative rates already. 

We are a global economy. 

X+Y=Z


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## mreynolds (Jan 1, 2015)

HDRider said:


> So you think a car, or truck, like for like, will cost less next year than it does this year?


I found a used Jeep Gladiator in Shreveport with 13k miles on it for 40k. New today in my town 33k.


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## HDRider (Jul 21, 2011)

mreynolds said:


> Now you understand.
> 
> It's not working as of today.
> 
> ...


You don't know what deflation is do you?

Negative interest rates are not deflation.

Deflation is when prices of raw materials, finished good and such have a longer term down turn in price.


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## SLADE (Feb 20, 2004)

Deflation is when a balloon filled with flatulence is punctured.
No matter the extra gas we pipe in the balloon continues to DEFLATE.


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## HDRider (Jul 21, 2011)

You have a strange way of blowing up a balloon


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## SLADE (Feb 20, 2004)

Ya but the deflation is the same.


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## MoonRiver (Sep 2, 2007)

I bought about $2.5k in stocks about a week ago. I decided that I was willing to lose up to $400 for education purposes. It makes it more real for me to actually have money at risk. I made one huge mistake and bought some Exxon. I sold it when the market came back some on Friday.

So with all the turmoil, I'm still only down about $220. Each of the 4 stocks is down about 10%.


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## mreynolds (Jan 1, 2015)

HDRider said:


> You don't know what deflation is do you?
> 
> Negative interest rates are not deflation.
> 
> Deflation is when prices of raw materials, finished good and such have a longer term down turn in price.


No the rates are not deflation. They raise or lower the rates to manipulate inflation. Otherwise, why not just leave it alone. As people spend or save they will manipulate the rates. 

In 2008 we became a saver economy. They wanted us to spend. They dropped the rates. It took ten years to work.


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## Alice In TX/MO (May 10, 2002)

MoonRiver said:


> So with all the turmoil, I'm still only down about $220. Each of the 4 stocks is down about 10%.


If you have a few years to wait, buy more now. Hold.


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## HDRider (Jul 21, 2011)

MoonRiver said:


> I bought about $2.5k in stocks about a week ago. I decided that I was willing to lose up to $400 for education purposes. It makes it more real for me to actually have money at risk. I made one huge mistake and bought some Exxon. I sold it when the market came back some on Friday.
> 
> So with all the turmoil, I'm still only down about $220. Each of the 4 stocks is down about 10%.


Obviously no one knows for sure when to get in, or when to get out, but Exxon is not a bad long term buy, as are some other oil stocks like Chevron, etc. They pay a good dividend, have lots of cash on hand, lots of real assets, and we still need oil.


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## HermitJohn (May 10, 2002)

Be careful not to catch that falling dagger.... Each to their own, I wouldnt be in any hurry. You might not buy at absolute bottom, but better to buy in a stable uptick market after the bottom. Buy into a rising market, not a falling one. Kidding yourself if you think you can outguess a wildly fluctuating market. Only way to deal with fluctuating market if you insist on doing so is to set orders that trigger to buy certain percentage of your shares on 20% downturn and sell on 20% upturn. Once a purchase or sale happens, you redo your set orders based on that price point. Or just dollar cost average. Buy set dollar amount every month. In downturn you buy more shares, in upturn you buy fewer shares. Thats about as simple as it gets, you wont get rich quick, but you wont lose your shirt.


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## InvalidID (Feb 18, 2011)

Did anyone notice the Fed basically ended fractional reserve banking today?


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## InvalidID (Feb 18, 2011)

MoonRiver said:


> I bought about $2.5k in stocks about a week ago. I decided that I was willing to lose up to $400 for education purposes. It makes it more real for me to actually have money at risk. I made one huge mistake and bought some Exxon. I sold it when the market came back some on Friday.
> 
> So with all the turmoil, I'm still only down about $220. Each of the 4 stocks is down about 10%.


Have you looked at leveraged ETFs? You can bet on dieection better this way, though you'll only get commodities or indexes.


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## mreynolds (Jan 1, 2015)

HDRider said:


> You don't know what deflation is do you?
> 
> Negative interest rates are not deflation.
> 
> Deflation is when prices of raw materials, finished good and such have a longer term down turn in price.



https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mar...lobal-market-rout/ar-BB11fW9A?ocid=spartanntp


Gold typically performs well during market sell-offs owing to its traditional role as a so-called "safe haven," but it has not been immune to this past week's global stock market plunge as the coronavirus pandemic takes hold.

Analysts are attributing the historic fall over the past week to a "*dash for cash" as investors abandon all asset classes in favor of parking their money and cutting losses.
*
Not typical for gold to fall when stocks do like this.


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## rambler (Jan 20, 2004)

You should be able to go to a store and get a free streak for what beef prices have done on the farm.

other meats and milk likewise are dropping.

grains are down a dime or 20 cents a day.

food should get cheap.

If it isn’t, be investing in food processing/ retailing companies. They would have an extreme mark up going in now......

Paul


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## painterswife (Jun 7, 2004)

Looks like another bumpy day.


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## mreynolds (Jan 1, 2015)

I'm selling all of my stock today and investing in the new currency. 

ButtCoin. Anyone have some toilet paper they want to sell?


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## MoonRiver (Sep 2, 2007)

My gut still says we are at/near the bottom. I'm going to buy some high dividend stocks today, but only about 1/3 of my target position.


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## Alice In TX/MO (May 10, 2002)

I have been thinking about that. High dividend stocks may make some adjustments.


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## NChemungGuy (Sep 5, 2004)

Alice In TX/MO said:


> If you have a few years to wait, buy more now. Hold.


Thats what we're doing. It worked well for us in 2008 and hoping to do that again. Wife bought some yesterday and we have a couple others we're watching with a "low" price in mind. Then we'll ride it out until things improve.


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## MoonRiver (Sep 2, 2007)

Good day to own some tech stocks.


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## Micheal (Jan 28, 2009)

Market up?
Market down?
Don't care, discovered DRIPs years back, formulated a plan and have stuck to it though thick and thin. 
Because of DRIPs I now re-invest bout $400+ a month toward my retirement that I plan on tapping if'n the time comes to my having a need for it.


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## keenataz (Feb 17, 2009)

mreynolds said:


> I found a used Jeep Gladiator in Shreveport with 13k miles on it for 40k. New today in my town 33k.


Up here those things are way overpriced.

Not releveant but just fun


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## keenataz (Feb 17, 2009)

MoonRiver said:


> My gut still says we are at/near the bottom. I'm going to buy some high dividend stocks today, but only about 1/3 of my target position.



You said that last week


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## mreynolds (Jan 1, 2015)

keenataz said:


> Up here those things are way overpriced.
> 
> Not releveant but just fun


Not practical for my work. Play is another story though.


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## painterswife (Jun 7, 2004)

Three weeks to erase three years of gains..


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## mreynolds (Jan 1, 2015)

Boeing and Macy's suspend dividend.


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## painterswife (Jun 7, 2004)

Another day and down we go again.


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## Chris in Mich (May 13, 2002)

My gut says we are still weeks away from the bottom. Gold prices have barely moved yet. I don't want to see it, but i believe we might see some genuine civil unrest -- how that presumptive event is handled may determine how near the basement we are.


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## keenataz (Feb 17, 2009)

Chris in Mich said:


> My gut says we are still weeks away from the bottom. Gold prices have barely moved yet. I don't want to see it, but i believe we might see some genuine civil unrest -- how that presumptive event is handled may determine how near the basement we are.


Being careful to keep this non political.

There are rumblings from the White House of over reaction and damage to the economy. I think one of the reasons is fear of civil discord.

If you hae people doing nothing, looking to fill time, along with no or little money and maybe running out of food, I think it is possible, and not just in US


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## Irish Pixie (May 14, 2002)

keenataz said:


> Being careful to keep this non political.
> 
> There are rumblings from the White House of over reaction and damage to the economy. I think one of the reasons is fear of civil discord.
> 
> If you hae people doing nothing, looking to fill time, along with no or little money and maybe running out of food, I think it is possible, and not just in US


I read something about it this morning.


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## newfieannie (Dec 24, 2006)

that is one of the things i'm doing while i'm in isolation. learning about stocks etc. i thought i was too dense but surprisingly i find it very interesting and i've learned quite a bit lately. i might try it soon. i was talking to my fp this morning . she has lost over 100.000 but not a bit worried ~Georgia


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## MoonRiver (Sep 2, 2007)

newfieannie said:


> that is one of the things i'm doing while i'm in isolation. learning about stocks etc. i thought i was too dense but surprisingly i find it very interesting and i've learned quite a bit lately. i might try it soon. i was talking to my fp this morning . she has lost over 100.000 but not a bit worried ~Georgia


Whose 100.000 did she lose?


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## newfieannie (Dec 24, 2006)

her own


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## mreynolds (Jan 1, 2015)

newfieannie said:


> that is one of the things i'm doing while i'm in isolation. learning about stocks etc. i thought i was too dense but surprisingly i find it very interesting and i've learned quite a bit lately. i might try it soon. i was talking to my fp this morning . she has lost over 100.000 but not a bit worried ~Georgia


That's what happened to me in 2008. Then I realized I was letting someone I didn't even know manage my money. I took the crash course too. I found out it wasn't all that hard.


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## GTX63 (Dec 13, 2016)

Yep. I pulled my money from investment firms around the same time, and when I say pulled, I mean I almost had to pull an OJ at the Palace Station a few times.


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## 101pigs (Sep 18, 2018)

newfieannie said:


> that is one of the things i'm doing while i'm in isolation. learning about stocks etc. i thought i was too dense but surprisingly i find it very interesting and i've learned quite a bit lately. i might try it soon. i was talking to my fp this morning . she has lost over 100.000 but not a bit worried ~Georgia


If i lost that much money i would be really worried. However after losting a lot in the 80,s i do sale when it looks bad like now. I am out after taking a bit of profit a day before all the downside started. May invest again next year after all this cools down. You be the judge when to get out or stay in. A lot of Brokers will tell you to stay in so they can still make money.


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## Chris in Mich (May 13, 2002)

If trading through an adviser, only use a *Fiduciary*


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