# Have we reached "peak food"?



## unregistered168043 (Sep 9, 2011)

http://www.independent.co.uk/enviro...as-global-production-rates-slow-10009185.html



> The world has entered an era of âpeak foodâ production with an array of staples from corn and rice to wheat and chicken slowing in growth â with potentially disastrous consequences for feeding the planet.
> 
> New research finds that the supply of 21 staples, such as eggs, meat, vegetables and soybeans is already beginning to run out of momentum, while the global population continues to soar.





> Peak production refers to the point at which the growth in a crop, animal or other food source begins to slow down, rather than the point at which production actually declines. However, it is regarded as a key signal that the momentum is being lost and it is typically only a matter of time before production plateaus and, in some cases, begins to fall â although it is unclear how long the process could take.





> This synchronisation of peak years is all the more worrying because it suggests the whole food system is becoming overwhelmed, making it extremely difficult to resurrect the fortunes of any one foodstuff, let alone all of them, the report suggested.





> The simultaneous peaking of crops and livestock comes against a backdrop of a growing population, which is expected to reach nine billion by 2050, requiring the world to produce twice as much food by then as it does now, according to a separate study by the California Academy of Sciences. The problems caused by the growing population have been compounded by the growth of wealthy middle-class populations in countries such as China and India which are demanding a meatier diet. This is problematic because meat and dairy use up a lot more resources than if a comparable level of nutrition were provided by crops, grown direct for human consumption.



The article begs the question;

Have we reached peak food or peak POPULATION?? ( 10 million humans born every hour )


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## Roadking (Oct 8, 2009)

All the more reason to grow / raise your own and be as independent as possible.

Matt


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## plowhand (Aug 14, 2005)

I don't see how we've actually reached "peak food"...............just with all the land that was once farmed that lying idle, just bush hogged once a year, or being planted to pine trees...........Soybeans...............might be that there won't be as many planted this year in US.............corn as well..............talk is of $7 beans, and $3 dollar corn...............at the cost of seed, fuel and chemicals..........you near a 200 bushel yield per acre to break even


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## Darren (May 10, 2002)

Peak food fear ignores the reality of issues with distribution especially in poorer countries. We could do a lot by taking ethanol out of gasolinel. A lot of corn would be available for food.

Peak food is BS.


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## brosil (Dec 15, 2003)

Darren said:


> Peak food fear ignores the reality of issues with distribution especially in poorer countries. We could do a lot by taking ethanol out of alcohol. A lot of corn would be available for food.
> 
> Peak food is BS.


 Don't get the idea that the U.S. needs to grow all the food. Africa could grow all their own and export if they farmed better. Zimbabwe used to export lots of food. Now, the people starve. In Mali, there's a guy growing tons of food with irrigation from a solar pump. His neighbors watch him and can't seem to figure out how to do the same. Missionary groups start farms that use crop rotation and grow lot's of food. The farmer next door just keeps planting corn year after year and wonders why his crop is worse.
Don't worry, the Chinese are taking over Africa. They know how to farm.


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## Allen W (Aug 2, 2008)

We've came through some serious weather issues around the world with grain production the last few years. This is bound to have had negative effects on total production numbers giving an alarmist numbers to run with.


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## Bellyman (Jul 6, 2013)

There's a saying about how to avoid a fight. "Don't be there." 

I believe a person is wise to at least attempt to have some level of food independence. Granted, few get to a point where they are truly not dependent upon anyone else for their food needs. But even supplying 75% of your needs takes away a lot of the potential volatility that comes with depending upon the world supplies that make their way to the market. (Preparation for a time of hardship could make that other 25% that a person can't produce at least available for a finite amount of time.)

If there comes a time when, for instance, milk, becomes rare and expensive and volatile, I might be pretty stressed about whether or not I can get it, what quality I can get or what price will be demanded of me to acquire what I think I need. But if I've developed my own source of milk, be it goats or sheep or cows or even soybeans if I should choose that as an option, the whole political and economic ramifications of how most of the world is dealing with their milk crisis becomes a lot less of an issue for me. It's not always easy in this day and age to make a disconnect, whether it's in food, or money or electric or even health care, but a person hanging their very existence upon those things sounds rather insecure and unstable to me.

I particularly appreciate those missionaries that have done things like one poster mentioned, gone to remote areas, helped people by drilling wells for clean water and irrigation, and helping them to get going with a healthier agriculture. I think there is more room for those kinds of things to happen. Granted, not every city dweller has the capacity for food independence. I think most could do more than they do. Many won't. Many don't think there's any reason to or any urgency about any of it. 

(I certainly have a long way to go myself. I'm sitting in a chair, one busted leg propped up, waiting for it to grow a couple of bones. I won't get a garden in early this year as it'll probably be pushing toward summer before I can even walk again. But I'm not giving up. I'll do what I can when I am able. I may not be able to grow as much food as I did last year, time will tell. But dog gone it, I ain't a gonna give up!!)

Interestingly, when my wife and I travel, we do often comment about the many, many, many country properties where there is no garden to be seen. Lovely lawns, nice McMansions, plenty of cars in the driveway, but no garden. I can't help but think that many of those people will someday wish they had started a garden and some fruit trees while they had the chance.


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## Wanda (Dec 19, 2002)

brosil said:


> Don't get the idea that the U.S. needs to grow all the food. Africa could grow all their own and export if they farmed better. Zimbabwe used to export lots of food. Now, the people starve. In Mali, there's a guy growing tons of food with irrigation from a solar pump. His neighbors watch him and can't seem to figure out how to do the same. Missionary groups start farms that use crop rotation and grow lot's of food. The farmer next door just keeps planting corn year after year and wonders why his crop is worse.
> Don't worry, the Chinese are taking over Africa. They know how to farm.


 I would say that China imports millions of tons of food every year, and they would not be the model for sustainability.


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## Dixie Bee Acres (Jul 22, 2013)

I cant produce all of my own food, but of the food I do produce, I produce enough for my family and enough to sell a lot of the "extra"
If we are at peak food, maybe I should up my prices at the farmers market.


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## brosil (Dec 15, 2003)

Wanda said:


> I would say that China imports millions of tons of food every year, and they would not be the model for sustainability.


 I found an article last year about China producing lots of food. They plan on feeding the world through Walmart. They've been making deals around the world on farmland and moving their operations in. In Zimbabwe, they've made a deal that they farm the land, they export the food an Mugabe gets paid. No provision for the Zimbabwean people to eat. I don't blame them . The land wasn't being used anyway.


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## plowhand (Aug 14, 2005)

I like to raise my own food, cause one think thing I do believe in is "peak nutrition"......and "peak taste"..........if you're eating totally from the store you probably found out about both


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## unregistered353870 (Jan 16, 2013)

According to one study I saw, the world already produces enough food to feed 10 billion people. Hunger is more of a distribution problem than a supply problem.


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## 7thswan (Nov 18, 2008)

Spay and Neuter.


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## Skandi (Oct 21, 2014)

There's so much space avaliable to grow food IF we had to, and I don't mean tearing out rainforests and killing wildlife to make nice big tractor friendly farms. in the UK most crops do not need irrigation, so water is not an issue either. Just thinking of Aberdeen where I used to live, tons of back lanes with grass verges, 12ft wide. empty plots, just growing grass, acres and acres of city parks, golf courses, road edges And do not forget gardens, most do not grow anything edible, but they could. all possible food producers and most totaly wasted. if food became expensive enough they would be used, as it is people do not see it as worth their while.

Articles such as that one seem to only count mass produced crops as food, perhapse becasue it is too difficult to count private gardens, but they should not be overlooked!

Anyway.. very glad to have just bought my 2.5 acres.. quite enough to produce enough to keep body and soul together.


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## elkhound (May 30, 2006)

thought yall might find this interesting.


*Organic farming practices revive Indian farmland ruined by 2004 tsunami*


Learn more: http://www.naturalnews.com/048435_organic_farming_soil_remediation_2004_tsunami.html#ixzz3QFkH0O00





​


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## DEKE01 (Jul 17, 2013)

Peak food is a joke. Last year I repeatedly drove all over an area from Ohio to Virginia to Florida and I see miles upon miles of acreage lying fallow. That land could have cattle and goats without much effort, but people don't see the value in labor. Every suburban backyard could have a garden and house 3 - 5 chickens if law allowed it. 

We may be at peak food based on current law and laziness, but if food got more expensive because it was in short supply, there is lots more that could be done to increase production. I've seen architectural concepts where downtown skyscrapers would have the entire southern facade growing strawberries and veggies in 2 ft wide beds. It's a dream now, but at $100 / lb? Maybe. 

In the 1970s the fear mongers claimed the world would run out of food by the 1990s. I don't know why people so often under estimate the creativity and persistence of mankind.


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## mekasmom (Jan 19, 2010)

Darntootin said:


> Have we reached peak food or peak POPULATION?? ( 10 million humans born every hour )


I honestly, sincerely think that this is not something we have to worry about. When God created the heavens and the earth, and put people here, He was wise enough to give us enough food for the people. Now, I do believe that the evil hearts of humans have created many food supply problems in places. And I do believe that in some places there are famines. But if people could migrate to other places where there was more food with no fear of human boundaries, there would be enough food world wide to feed the people.


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## InvalidID (Feb 18, 2011)

We haven't even gotten to REALLY high tech farming yet. There's still a lot of cheap food production gains to be made, then we'll move to things like huge aquaponics systems (or add them) before I'm even thinking of peak food.

Cheap food however, is a thing of the past.


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## unregistered353870 (Jan 16, 2013)

> Cheap food however, is a thing of the past.


Not yet, but maybe relatively soon.


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## Bellyman (Jul 6, 2013)

jtbrandt said:


> According to one study I saw, the world already produces enough food to feed 10 billion people. Hunger is more of a distribution problem than a supply problem.


As I read your post, the thought came to my mind...

From a worldwide perspective, the world is not going to produce more food than it needs on a continuing basis. Why would people do that? Basically, demand for food is what drives the supply of food. When the demand is satisfied, producing more food only puts a glut in the marketplace and lowers the price that producers get. People going to bed hungry isn't necessarily because the world isn't capable of producing more food. I agree that it's a distribution problem, often political.


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## chickenista (Mar 24, 2007)

As long as we continue to throw out more than 50% of food, we haven't reached 'peak food'.


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## ovsfarm (Jan 14, 2003)

Several years ago, a Russian man was visiting our area and came to give a talk to the local Senior Center about his home country. After the talk, someone asked him what were some of the major differences between our area and his homeland. He answered, "The whitetailed deer. I can't begin to tell you how strange and shocking it is for me to see FOOD on the hoof, just wandering around the countryside."

Peak food is a silly concept. World hunger has a lot more to do with politics and greed than it does with limited food production resources. My land is not maxed out, nor is that of anyone else I know. And now I'm hearing more and more about a big push to grow most of the commercial US vegetables hydroponically indoors. Which could add even more potential growing space.

Whoever came up with the concept of peak food has no clue regarding actual food production capacity and IMO, everything they say/claim should be suspect.


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## manygoatsnmore (Feb 12, 2005)

InvalidID said:


> We haven't even gotten to REALLY high tech farming yet. There's still a lot of cheap food production gains to be made, then we'll move to things like huge aquaponics systems (or add them) before I'm even thinking of peak food.
> 
> Cheap food however, is a thing of the past.


Totally off topic, but just wanted to say it's nice to see you posting again, IID.


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## farmerDale (Jan 8, 2011)

Ugh, made a long post, internet crashed. Just leaving my mark here, I had a lot to say, darn it!


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## CraftyLady (Jul 18, 2014)

Food, how we get it, how we use it, and how much we pay for luxury food it changing.

McDonald's was the new FF kid on the block when I was a teen. It was cheap, really cheap, and it was a treat. Today FF is a staple for many people. 

Newly married in the 70's a garden was where most of our fruits and veggies came from. When we went to the grocery store it was for grains, staples such as baking soda, yeast, toilet paper, cleaning supplies etc. 

We all understand how society and selling the 'new' item has changed how we eat and how we think about eating. We remember how-to do and consume in the old fashioned way. Our youth do not. And so a new movement has been formed. Eating closer to home, urban farm movement, and all of that. 

That's the change we see here in this country. 

As to underdeveloped countries with civil problems, or those without the ability or are overwhelmed by the shear need of their populous, help from the US and other countries is needed. And we are helping. Have any of you hear of the Starfish story? 
This is why I help where I can. I know I can't help everyone. But, I can help some. 
http://www.esc16.net/users/0020/FACES/Starfish Story.pdf

The Starfish Story


A young man is walking along the ocean and
sees a beach on which thousands and thousands
of starfish have washed ashore. Further along
he sees an old man, walking slowly and
stooping often, picking up one starfish after
another and tossing each one gently into the
ocean.

âWhy are you throwing starfish into the
ocean?,â he asks.

âBecause the sun is up and the tide is going out
and if I donât throw them further in they will
die.â

âBut, old man, donât you realize there are miles
and miles of beach and starfish all along it!
You canât possibly save them all, you canât even
save one-tenth of them. In fact, even if you
work all day, your efforts wonât make any
difference at all.â

The old man listened calmly and then bent
down to pick up another starfish and threw it
into the sea. âIt made a difference to that one."


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## unregistered358967 (Jul 17, 2013)

7thswan said:


> Spay and Neuter.


..and animals too. :happy2:


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## ET1 SS (Oct 22, 2005)

We might be growing more food today then ever before. So it is possible to draw it on a chart, to appear to be a 'peak'.

But next year's production will be even more.


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## okiemom (May 12, 2002)

The amount of food wasted is enough to feed millions just in this country.


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## unregistered353870 (Jan 16, 2013)

Darntootin said:


> The article begs the question;
> 
> Have we reached peak food or peak POPULATION?? ( 10 million humans born every hour )


I missed your question when I first read this...10 million humans are not born every hour. That's an insanely high number. Am I not understanding what you're saying?

I can't find the specific numbers about births, but the net (including deaths) population growth averages around 200,000 per day.


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## Forerunner (Mar 23, 2007)

If anything, we're nearing a spike in the cycle indicating peak manipulation of resource availability.


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## Elizabeth (Jun 4, 2002)

ovsfarm's post about the Russian piqued my interest, so I looked up some numbers.

According to the US Census bureau, as of July, 2014 the US human population numbered 320,000,000+.

According to Cornell University, there are currently over 20,000,000 whitetail deer in the US.

As someone whose family hunts, and depends upon venison as a staple of our diet, those numbers aren't looking too good in the event of a food shortage


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## Forerunner (Mar 23, 2007)

Dandelions are forever.

Just sayin'.


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## plowhand (Aug 14, 2005)

Forerunner said:


> Dandelions are forever.
> 
> Just sayin'.


They are the only kind a "lion" I wanna see on the place..........I garauntee!


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## Forerunner (Mar 23, 2007)

I'll bet dandelion greens sautÃ©ed in Lion steak drippins would be tasty. :shrug:


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## farmerDale (Jan 8, 2011)

We are not even remotely close to peak food IMO.

There is so much wasted land resources. Heck, on our own land, we could be raising many hundreds more tons of food, but the limiting factor is money to fence those acres and buy those animals.

Russia, Ukraine, areas of Africa, former Soviet states: What do these countries have that many do not? Excellent soil, and good farming weather. What do they NOT have that we in Western countries have? Good agronomy, proper soil testing and fertilizing procedures, advanced plant breeding, high mechanization.

If these countries ever get their act together, and I believe they will someday, food production will sky rocket. That deep, deep BLACK soil, is not being used to its maximum potential by a long shot. Take Ukraine. It has soil and climate in areas that make the corn belt soils look poor. And Ukraine is enormous. Same for the Soviet Union, and some of the former states. They simply have not been taking advantage of good agronomy, and are years behind western Europe and North America on that front. The potential is MASSIVE.

In Africa, there is tons of land that is not used at all, but has reasonable soils and a good climate. But logistically and economically and politically, they just can not get going. A bit of fertilizer, and proper practices would shoot these areas over the moon in production.

Will it happen? Someday it may. 

If it never happens, I guess peak food is relatively near. But if it does happen, and some of these countries start raising yields that are as good or better than western yields, which is not a stretch at all, given their amazing soil and good climate, the earth will be food secure for a VERY long time.

Also, if we ever start using our land more fully for food production, this would add to tons produced; My own farm again is an example of under used land that could be made more efficient.

Finally, just look at the amazing progress we have seen in average yields over just the last half century, due to better agronomy in North America. If that trend continues, and we farmers continue to produce more with less, our production will continue to go up. Saskatchewan used to leave fallow nearly half its grain land every year. But thanks to better machinery and agronomy that allows for conserving moisture and improving soil, very little is left unseeded any more. And as zero tillage allows the soil to rebuild, LESS fertilizer is needed to grow the same bushels as before, because we are no longer wearing out our soil, and watching it blow or run away.

We are not even close to reaching peak food, IMO. Which from a purely economical perspective as a farmer, is very much too bad!  Ukraine and former USSR states, are actually a bit, (ok a lot), scary to me. If they get their act together, good luck to us westerners in competing with them....


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## Wendy (May 10, 2002)

I agree FarmerDale. There is so much land just around here that is not used & could be if needed. I am amazed at the people that will mow a couple of acres of land instead of fencing it for a few cows, goats, etc., planting some fruit trees, or renting it out for someone else to farm. It's a waste of land & also a waste of fuel mowing it. I wish we had more acres as I would love to raise more than I do.


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## DaleK (Sep 23, 2004)

Agriculture is the number one economic driver in Ontario with roughly 7 million acres of field crops. There's estimated to be 16 million uncleared acres of prime farmland in one swath in northeastern Ontario alone


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## farmerDale (Jan 8, 2011)

DaleK said:


> Agriculture is the number one economic driver in Ontario with roughly 7 million acres of field crops. There's estimated to be 16 million uncleared acres of prime farmland in one swath in northeastern Ontario alone


Good point. Saskatchewan has untold millions of acres of potential more farmland in forest fringe areas across the north grain belt area that if prices were high enough, long enough, could feasibly be added as well.

Heck, on my own land, if I were not a conservationist and a hunter, I could convert about 600 acres of woods and drain some ponds to make more farmland.


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## willbuck1 (Apr 4, 2010)

The Chinese have started importing more food since they started becoming wealthier. This increased the demand for meat especially. However the Chinese farmer produces more food per acre than any farmer anywhere else in the world. It is however a labor intensive process and as the standard of living goes up fewer are willing to put in the effort when they can earn an easier living working in a factory in what we consider slave labor conditions.


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## DEKE01 (Jul 17, 2013)

willbuck1 said:


> The Chinese have started importing more food since they started becoming wealthier. This increased the demand for meat especially. However the Chinese farmer produces more food per acre than any farmer anywhere else in the world. It is however a labor intensive process and as the standard of living goes up fewer are willing to put in the effort when they can earn an easier living working in a factory in what we consider slave labor conditions.


I'm not saying your wrong, but I find your stat hard to believe. I thought US farmers were the most productive by far. What is your source?


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## farmerDale (Jan 8, 2011)

DEKE01 said:


> I'm not saying your wrong, but I find your stat hard to believe. I thought US farmers were the most productive by far. What is your source?


In the non corn sector, the US is not in front. China indeed is far ahead, and Europe, ( France, Britain, Germany), New Zealand, even Oman and some of those regions where thanks to irrigation and a never ending growing season, have an amazing output.

A quick google confirmed this. New Zealand has the world record wheat yield.

Yes, with corn, the US is ahead. But non-corn grains, there are other areas better suited, just like there is no area that competes very strongly in corn with the US.


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## Forerunner (Mar 23, 2007)

If more American, (and Canadian) farmers would take a lesson from the Chinese and come to appreciate the value of a turd........

:indif:


.


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## farmerDale (Jan 8, 2011)

Forerunner said:


> If more American, (and Canadian) farmers would take a lesson from the Chinese and come to appreciate the value of a turd........
> 
> :indif:
> 
> ...


We already do. Where do you think "factory farm" manure goes? lol

We all know the value of a turd. It is just that there just are not enough turds to cover all the farmland. For my farm, I would need several thousand cows to produce the manure needed to fertilize the land with the equivalent chemical composition I can get in 40 tons of fertilizer. And I am a relatively small farm.


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## ET1 SS (Oct 22, 2005)

Forerunner said:


> If more American, (and Canadian) farmers would take a lesson from the Chinese and come to appreciate the value of a turd........


From what I have observed among the growing farm movement in this area, new farmers are more fully utilizing manures.


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## farmerDale (Jan 8, 2011)

ET1 SS said:


> From what I have observed among the growing farm movement in this area, new farmers are more fully utilizing manures.


Here, ALL farmers are using manure if available. It is not a new concept. If it is available, we will use it. Not just the "new" farmers, whatever that means. Using manure is not exclusive to "local, small, organic farms". It is just that there is such a limited supply. More manure would be great! I must add though, that I don't think we want to get like China where there is too much manure, and not enough land in many cases...


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## elkhound (May 30, 2006)

Forerunner said:


> If more American, (and Canadian) farmers would take a lesson from the Chinese and come to appreciate the value of a turd........
> 
> :indif:
> 
> ...



you made me spewwwww...lol.....humanure !!!!!:happy2:


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## ET1 SS (Oct 22, 2005)

elkhound said:


> you made me spewwwww...lol.....humanure !!!!!:happy2:


I am aware of a number of farmers that use humanure.

I have attended conferences where it has been among the topics.


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## Forerunner (Mar 23, 2007)

FarmerDale......... Understood and agreed. 

Do many of the fellows up your way
utilize cover crops where manure is scarce ?

Now just imagine if every other farmer or one in five still had their extensive beef cattle herds. We'd eat better, enjoy lower prices AND have manure aplenty.

Now someone needs to educate them Chinese as to the value of carbon and composting.

Elk.......watch that pungent sense of humor......it'll sneak up on yuh every time.


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## elkhound (May 30, 2006)

my homesteads production is rising due to compost piles taller than my tractor and soon to be "humanure house"....its the modern day version of an outhouse.


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## farmerDale (Jan 8, 2011)

Forerunner said:


> FarmerDale......... Understood and agreed.
> 
> Do many of the fellows up your way
> utilize cover crops where manure is scarce ?
> ...


Well, cover crops are limited by our short growing season. From May when the crops are seeded, until September when harvest happens,is basically our growing season. There is no room most years either side of that to use cover crops. Some use cover crops on areas that were too wet to seed. The soil is always covered by large amounts of residue though, because we all use no till practices, so the soil remains intact.

When BSE hit and decimated Canada's beef herd, thousands of beef guys exited the industry, so only a few remain. 

The problem is with the manure issue, that in our municipality, there is about 200 000 acres of grain land. There just are not enough cows, and never have been, and never will be. That would take a massive amount of cows to produce that much poo!

Most farmers do use a legume/pulse crop as a rotational break in their cropping systems. Peas, fababeans and now recently soy, are being grown. 

Yeah, mixed farming is all but gone around here. Guys are for lack of a better term, well, er, uhmmm, lazy. Because our area would make AWESOME mixed farming. We are in a land of fields, lakes, streams, forests, so there is lots of marginal land for grain. Right now, most sits idle. The new, young farmers, mostly prefer grain, because though more stressful, it is easier work, and has a more limited season, so that they can go to Hawaii or Mexico or Cuba with greater ease! lol


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## Wendy (May 10, 2002)

elkhound said:


> my homesteads production is rising due to compost piles taller than my tractor and soon to be "humanure house"....its the modern day version of an outhouse.


Wow!! Will you make me one??


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## MO_cows (Aug 14, 2010)

Elk - love it! That is the Waldorf Astoria of outhouses!!


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## elkhound (May 30, 2006)

thats a picture from a tinyhouse bathroom set-up...right beside it is a shower stall....my idea for my set-up is i want a woodfired sauna/shower hybrid tiny building...but i want to put a compost toilet in there too....but it sealed off from where all the steam will be..so it be sorta like a shower stall thingy with toilet inside....i hope that makes sense.


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## elkhound (May 30, 2006)




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## unregistered358967 (Jul 17, 2013)

elkhound said:


> my homesteads production is rising due to compost piles taller than my tractor and soon to be "humanure house"....its the modern day version of an outhouse.


Is this from your actual house? If so, I'm jealous. That's exactly what i want.


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## ET1 SS (Oct 22, 2005)

farmerDale said:


> Here, ALL farmers are using manure if available. It is not a new concept. If it is available, we will use it. Not just the "new" farmers, whatever that means. Using manure is not exclusive to "local, small, organic farms". It is just that there is such a limited supply. More manure would be great! I must add though, that I don't think we want to get like China where there is too much manure, and not enough land in many cases...


Economy-Of-Scale changes everything.

With 3 to 5 acres, you can produce enough veggies to support a family. You do not need a tractor on-site full-time, and getting 20 yards of manure is not a problem.

As you look at trying to work larger pieces of land, the EOS requires that you must have your own tractor. With larger properties you find that you must have multiple pieces of large equipment. The size of the operation requires it.

Trying to spread manure on 5 acres, as compared to spreading manure on 100 acres, or 500 acres, are entirely different obstacles. If your method of food production strips the soil of nutrients, then you do need to replace them, and modern fertilizers become required. Covering 500 acres with manure is a far larger task simply because nobody has that much manure.

I grew-up on a farm, in an area where every farm was trying to work out a profitable EOS. "Get big or get out". My father tried all his life to find a sweet spot in the EOS. [he never found one].

Now I sit nestled among small operations where there is a different sweet spot. It is not focused on "get big or get out", rather "small, simple, sustainable and diverse".


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## Forerunner (Mar 23, 2007)

Therein must lie the trend of the future, as was the trend of the past.

There is a stability, a complexity, a strength on a national level, when the building blocks are small and sustainable.

Incidentally, it is the stability and strength of the small family farm that scares the control crazy tyrant to death.

Look at Russia before Stalin.......America before Wilson.


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## ET1 SS (Oct 22, 2005)

Before the modern inventions of: internal combustion, petroleum-fertilizers, and synthetic herbicides / pesticides; it took roughly 40% of the population to produce food, in order to feed the entire population. Today with all of the modern 'advances' it requires less than 1%.

But with those 'advances' are a host of attachments [some of those attachments are things that many of us strongly dislike].

To make it even 'better' Earl Butz came up with Farm Subsidies. Today it is very difficult to look at and discuss farm economics without the effect of Farm Subsidy. Today spending your money at a grocery store, you can get far more by buying Coco-pops, then you can by buying local organic apples. The Coco-pops has a tiny percentage of food in it [after you remove the chemicals] and the food in it was subsidized by tax dollars. The local organic apple has no subsidy applied to it.

My grandfather in the 1920s farmed in an era when raising one pig from weaning to butcher, was enough to pay the annual bank mortgage payment. One pig, once a year, paid for his farm.

35 years after him explaining that to us, it is still hard to wrap my mind around that idea.

Today if you butchered 10 pigs a month, you could not cover a mortgage payment.



I believe that today if 40% of the world population focused on producing food: without internal combustion, without petroleum-fertilizers, without synthetic herbicides or pesticides, without GMOs, and without farm subsidies, we could feed the world.


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## farmerDale (Jan 8, 2011)

ET1 SS said:


> I believe that today if 40% of the world population focused on producing food: without internal combustion, without petroleum-fertilizers, without synthetic herbicides or pesticides, without GMOs, and without farm subsidies, we could feed the world.


I agree with all your post, except that last part. But that is ok to disagree. It is just that an the countries that DO have that kind of proportion of farmers, and who do use those methods: Well, they are the countries that are the hungriest and import the most food and have the most sporadic food production. 

I mentioned partially mechanized, toe in the waters edge of fertilizer use Ukraine. When they step forward and start using good agronomic principals, look out! The countries producing the most food, and exporting the most food, are the countries with advanced ag systems. The ones who are farming using 1930 technology? They export little.

Subsidization is interesting as a Canadian, because we don't have a whole lot of subsidy flowing up here. We have a very basic crop insurance plan, that most years runs on farmer premiums alone, it is more an emergency measure. The US and Europe, and China, are pretty ruthless on that front. It makes it tough for other countries to compete... Europe is especially wicked in their subsidies. Many European farms make a living off the subsidies alone, their production is merely a second thought bonus.

Un-mechanized ag would IMO not be a very productive system. Compare yields of those days with yields of today. We would need to make a whole bunch more farmland somehow to make up for 50 bushel corn and 20 bushel wheat. Imagine now, the erosion from the tillage? The organic matter decline? The soil mining and inability to replace nutrients like Copper, zinc, manganese with any level of accuracy?

Family farms are the lifeblood of a nation. Thankfully, contrary to popular theory, the vast majority of farms in North America ARE family owned enterprises!


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