# Winter... Sheeple or half-prep people....



## AverageJo (Sep 24, 2010)

DH and I have discussed this quite a bit. We live where it does get cold and winter is just around the corner. Would it be best for US if the hoards in the cities are full of sheeples or if they were half-prepped folks? It may seem self-centered on our part, but I'd prefer if they were full sheeple and not prepared at all. They wouldn't make it through the winter if they stayed in the city, perhaps, and it would be too cold for them to get out. We're talking major poo hitting the fan, not just a blizzard or ice storm, although we could envision a couple of weeks without electric for a portion of the city, but that wouldn't wipe them out...

Anyway, I'd rather have a quick die out of the hoards rather than a bunch of people that were prepped only enough to make it to spring and then swarm the countryside when we're trying to get our own gardens going, etc.

What are your thoughts??


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

> Anyway, I'd rather have a quick die out of *the hoards* rather than a bunch of people that were prepped only enough to make it to spring and then swarm the countryside when we're trying to get our own gardens going, etc.


The "hoards" will come in* waves*, because they won't "have a quick die out".
It will be *gradual*, and as some die, others will take THEIR supplies to live on.

The ones who DO survive won't necessarily be just those who were most prepared, but could well be those *mean enough to take what they needed.*


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## naturelover (Jun 6, 2006)

AverageJo said:


> It may seem self-centered on our part, but I'd prefer if they were full sheeple and not prepared at all........ Anyway, I'd rather have a quick die out of the hoards rather than a bunch of people that were prepped only enough to make it to spring and then swarm the countryside when we're trying to get our own gardens going, etc.
> 
> What are your thoughts??


I think you're dreaming - and yes, it _is_ self-centered and no _seeming_ about it. 

In this day and age no hoards in the cities are so unprepared or non-self sufficient that you're going to have a quick die out of such huge proportions as you're envisioning. The only way you're going to have a quick die out of all the city hoards will be through some kind of disaster of epic scale that takes out most of the country, i.e. massive mag 9 -10 earthquake, Yellowstone super volcano erupting, global tidal wave, nuclear holocaust or swift moving plague/epidemic for which there is no cure. If that was the case then you're 100% guaranteed that will effect you too unless you're prepared to be holed up underground inside a deep cavern inside a mountain for several years. You certainly won't have to worry about putting in your garden in the spring in such an eventuality.

.


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## oregon woodsmok (Dec 19, 2010)

I would love to see everybody in the entire country prepped. Half-prepped is a lot better than not prepped at all.

I would very much prefer to have everybody live through whatever it is. There might be a few disasters (space aliens invade) where nobody is coming to help, but they are pretty rare events.

People who are half prepped don't have their heads 100% up where the sun don't shine. They have already done a bit of thought and maybe if they can make it through the winter, they will get their act together and figure out how to survive.

I don't believe Americans are stupid. They are simply doped up nearly comatose and lazy from too much TV, too many fast food french fries, and too many entitlements. If they are half prepped they have time to wake up and get their brains reengaged.


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## Sanza (Sep 8, 2008)

I agree with you AverageJo that most of the city sheeple would die out in winter simply from lack of fuel (meaning food) to sustain body temps. 
First of all if they can't be motivated to prep a little, I don't think they would want to go great distances for finding food and warm shelter. 
They would also underestimate the importance of dressing warm in order to survive and many would die because of no warm boots or coats. 
I personally don't think many would make it out from my closest city in summer and in winter it would be almost impossible. 

Hypothermia is also a silent killer just like carbon monoxide.....

Most of the "generation x" would not have the faintest idea on how to survive without power and heat and running water, some babyboomers wouldn't either. 
It's one thing to remember a parent or grandparent stoking up the stove and cooking on it but it's another thing for them to do it right without doing it before. 

Experience is 100 times more important then book knowledge!

If there was an power blackout nationwide there would be looters and gangs trashing everything almost instantly, and the store shelves would be stripped bare in a matter of days. 
There would be no semis pulling up with goods to restock the shelves, so where would city people get their food supply from Bearfoot?

Oregonwoodsmok - that's a nice fairytail you got there....nobody in the world would be homeless, cold or starving...


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## Sanza (Sep 8, 2008)

naturelover said:


> I think you're dreaming - and yes, it _is_ self-centered and no _seeming_ about it.
> 
> In this day and age no hoards in the cities are so unprepared or non-self sufficient that you're going to have a quick die out of such huge proportions as you're envisioning. The only way you're going to have a quick die out of all the city hoards will be through some kind of disaster of epic scale that takes out most of the country, i.e. massive mag 9 -10 earthquake, Yellowstone super volcano erupting, global tidal wave, nuclear holocaust or swift moving plague/epidemic for which there is no cure. If that was the case then you're 100% guaranteed that will effect you too unless you're prepared to be holed up underground inside a deep cavern inside a mountain for several years. You certainly won't have to worry about putting in your garden in the spring in such an eventuality.
> 
> .


It's not being self-centered but being self-preserving. How can you think most city people are prepared with food for more then a week, especially coming from a place like Vancouver where there are thousands of homeless already?
When people get cold and hungry and there's no food on the store shelves it's going to get ugly and fast!


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## AverageJo (Sep 24, 2010)

Thank you Sanza. I couldn't think of the proper term, but self-preserving definitely fits better than self-centered to describe what I was thinking. 

I'm sorry if I offended anyone with the mention of a city or being partially prepared. I applaud those of you that have woken up and are actively getting prepared with a way to live until you can raise your own food, whether this is with your own stores or preps or bugging out while you still can. In a perfect world, I would wish that everyone could get to this point. But the fact is that there are those, like my own family, that don't have more than a couple of days food in the pantry/freezer/frig. And, yes, they also live in large cities. LOL... 

If it's just a city-wide blackout, there are probably going to be neighboring cities that will come to the rescue until they could get the power back up. I'm sure there would be warming houses/buildings, etc. to keep the city going for those that need it.

What I was thinking was something more dramatic, like an EMP that takes out the power, generators, cars, trucking, etc. Nobody coming to the rescue. Stores stripped bare within a couple of days, if that. Riots? Takeovers? Violence? My hope for even my own family is that at the very least, they would have warm enough clothes and enough food that they can carry and eat on the run and hightail it out to us. My mother would never make it as she couldn't walk that far. She would end up one of the dead in short order, and she's made her piece with that, or so she says. Not sure of the rest of the family as to whether they would survive or die.


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## Nimrod (Jun 8, 2010)

I don't think the populations of the cities will all starve and not try to get out. 

Let's assume a worst case senario. There has been a massive disaster and there is no help comming. The roads will be blocked up by dead cars fairly quickly or an EMP will disable most of them so the population can not drive out. The disaster happens at the beginning of winter so nobody is going to try walking out either. 

Much of the population will be able to survive the winter although many will starve. When Leningrad was surrounded for 872 days during WWII, most survived the first winter. After that some supplies did get in and some of the woman and kids were able to evacuate. Those who stayed experienced starvation and water born diseases like cholora and typhus. The men and the armed forces not only survived but kept the German army at bay. Siege of Leningrad - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia 

After the first winter the population will head for the country because there is no longer food or fuel in the cities. These will be the survivers who were too mean to die. Most likely they took what they needed to survive. They will walk. The settlers who moved to California and Oregon in the old west generally walked the whole way. They did not ride on their wagons. Refugees will walk hundreds of miles to get away from fighting. I don't think you can feel safe out in the country because the survivers can walk to almost any location and get you.

I think your best hope is for a massive plague that kills them off before they can get to you. You remain isolated and don't get sick.


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## sss3 (Jul 15, 2007)

Curious- do you really think they can walk far? Most people are in such shape as not to make this feasible.


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## Explorer (Dec 2, 2003)

Sandra Spiess said:


> Curious- do you really think they can walk far? Most people are in such shape as not to make this feasible.


The old out of shape, say over 40-50, and the sick or disabled probably will die off that first winter. The rest should not have much problem walking 20 miles a day. It is the young with a reason to survive, kids, that will become violent and dangerous.


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## chickenista (Mar 24, 2007)

The true danger doesn't come from the zombie hoards.
It comes from the new 'war lords'.
The local guys that see the wisdom in pillaging.
It is the armed group working for the big guy that goes house to house, killing and claiming all for themselves to re-sell at a very high price.
Zombie hoards will be tired, hungy, sick.
New war lord groups will be well fed, powerful, crazy and willing to do anything.


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## naturelover (Jun 6, 2006)

Sanza said:


> It's not being self-centered but being self-preserving. How can you think most city people are prepared with food for more then a week, especially coming from a place like Vancouver where there are thousands of homeless already?
> When people get cold and hungry and there's no food on the store shelves it's going to get ugly and fast!


Sanza, Vancouver and the whole Fraser Valley area is a year round garden city and agricultural area and doesn't even enter into the equation, so you might not want to use that as an example. It's one of only two cities in all of Canada (the other is Victoria) that stays green and warmer in the winter than all the rest of Canada and where people can survive outside and forage right through the winter. All those thousands of homeless people in Vancouver - the vast majority of them are opportunistic homeless people from other cities from right across the country, including coming from cities near you. They flock to Vancouver every year in the autumn because they know it's the one place on the mainland where they can survive comfortably enough through the winter.

Homeless in Canada go to Vancouver in the winter just like homeless in America go to Florida, Mississippi, Louisiana, Alabama, Texas, southern California.

If there's a nasty winter event such as AverageJo is envisioning then desperate people from the inland cities will flock to warmer coastlines and to southern states where the winter will be more survivable than what it would be inland.

I don't think the OP is being self-preserving, I think it's just hopeful wishing on her part wanting city people to die so they won't bother her in the country because she's not as prepared as she'd like to be or should be. If she was really well prepared she wouldn't have to worry about whether or not she gets a garden in next spring, so that makes her a half-prepared person too, just like the half-prepared people in the city. Maybe some other people who are more prepared than her are also wishing that she will die in a massive die-off too.

.


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## sisterpine (May 9, 2004)

My estimate is that the die off will take about 5 years give or take a disease or two. First the very old and the very young (starvation and disease), then some diseases from these deaths like cholera etc will take a toll. Next folks who have limited preps (a week or two) will begin seaking sustanance and will kill/be killed and spread disease. Then those who preped but remained in the cities will have to decide how to survive - deaths. Those that can get out of the cities will invade the rural communities near by first then farther out from the cities. Lastly will be groups of roaming bad guys willing to do whatever it takes to take from others to insure their survival...these will be the ones we will have to fight. And lastly only the smart strong will survive to reproduce.


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## AverageJo (Sep 24, 2010)

naturelover said:


> ...
> I don't think the OP is being self-preserving, I think it's just hopeful wishing on her part wanting city people to die so they won't bother her because she's not as prepared as she'd like to be or should be. If she was really well prepared she wouldn't have to worry about whether or not she gets a garden in next spring, so that makes her a half-prepared person too, just like the half-prepared people in the city. Maybe some other people who are more prepared than her are also wishing that she will die in a massive die-off too.
> 
> .


You're right... there are times I do not feel prepared enough. Just how much food do I have to put up to feed everyone who finds their way to our place? Just how much firepower do I need to keep everyone at bay? How big a garden will I need to plant and how much seed do I need? I have plenty for me and mine, but to what lengths would I need to prepare if the cities swarm on me? Do I hire an army? How many would that be? How would I feed and house and cloth that many? We're prepared for ourselves if left alone for the most part, but you're right in that I have times when I feel we could never be fully parepared unless we lived in a stone castle with a deep moat with aligators and/or pirana. :thumb:

Added: I already know that there is no way I can bug out and live off the land right now. I have two small children and already know that this would not work. Now if we had remained childless, or if the children were older, that would definitely be an option and one we could easily do. So now buggin in is our best option.


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## katheh (Jul 21, 2012)

I see an overestimation about how willing people will be to take care of themselves. My DH would be one of those that literally "lay down and die" if the end of the world happens. He simply does not have that kind of coping hardwired into him. Of my DH, me, and our 3 boys, if I am honest with myself, I would only expect me and the youngest (14yo) to live for very long at all in the end of the world. We are the ants, the other 3 are grasshoppers.

In today's society, people will quite literally starve waiting in line for help. Look back to Katrina- people stayed in that Superdome for days after they could have just walked away. Paralyzed by the possibility of having to care for themselves. If they hadn't been evacuated, they would have stayed even longer waiting for help.


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## TheMartianChick (May 26, 2009)

As someone that lives in a city, I see all kinds of people that would react differently in a SHTF situation, but not necessarily in a negative way:

My husband comes from a large family and what I have observed among them might give a bit of insight. They have always been the kind of family that bands together and most of them live in this city and within walking distance. In a SHTF situation, they'd likely all group together in one or two houses for safety and to pool resources. I've seen them do this in the past during a massive power outage and have no doubt that this would be their way of coping. They'd each bring whatever supplies that they were able to and they'd travel in a group for security. 

Our own children have said that in an emergency...they're coming to our house! Not because they aren't prepared, but because they know that we are better prepared. They know not to come empty-handed or with an unwillingness to work. Just about every inner-city family has a strong matriarch/patriarch figure that is old enough to remember how things were done in the past and maintain order. If all of my husband's family got together under my roof, we'd probably all kill eachother, but we certainly wouldn't starve.

In my city, lots of houses are equipped with fireplaces for heat since most of the homes were built prior to 1920. Many of the homes still have the giant octopus style gas furnaces and those operate without electricity. If the gas lines are still connected when disaster strikes, the homes will still have both heat and cooking gas. Most families would gravitate to the homes with fireplaces in the event that there was no gas. Firewood would be hard to come by, but I'm sure that people would figure out how to deconstruct things in order to have wood for the fire.

Many city dwellers have deep freezers, so the odds of everyone running out of food quickly is not likely. A lot of city people grocery shop every few days, but it isn't because they have no food in the house...It's because they want something other than what is in the house and a trip to the store is almost a community ritual. (I was a rarity in that I really didn't keep much food in the house and did shop almost daily!)

Most cities are not the meccas of glass and steel that you tend to think of and they are not all like South Central LA!. In most NY State cities, the people live in homes with yards and not high rises. My urban home sits on 3/4 of an acre.

City people hail from all over the place and I am always running into someone that has some kind of "country" knowledge that was acquired earlier in life. My best friend is purely a city girl in her 60's and yet she recalls watching her mother can vegetables that she grew in the backyard garden or bought at the farmers market.

Lots of city people are former members of our armed forces , so they have weapons skills. We also have Boy Scouts, Girl Scouts and Future Farmers of America Clubs. Our local city branch of Cooperative Extension teaches all of the master gardener classes and canning classes that you'd expect to crowds of (mostly) city dwellers. Is the average city dweller a master gardener? Decidedly not, but there are many backyard gardening enthusiasts here.

If you take a trip to a particular side of town, you will frequently hear roosters crowing despite the fact that they are illegal here. There are quite a few folks with illegal (quiet) backyard hens. There are a few people with quail and there are duck ponds with geese.

One other thing is that preppers are not the only ones that have been observing the rising cost of goods at the store. One has only to visit the parking lot of an Aldi's or Save A Lot store to see that there are more luxury vehicles there. Inside the stores, we see a change in the demographics and you can always spot the middle to upperclass first-timers that are browsing as though they are ashamed to be seen there. These people don't consider themselves to be preppers, but they are buying in large quantities so that they don't have to come back any time soon! Lots of people have caught on to the fact that prices are going up and that the grocery money is best spent today while the prices are low rather than having to buy the same items for an inflated price in three months. They consider themselves to be savvy shoppers, not preppers. They still have a nice stockpile of groceries to get by on.

Cities generally have a diverse population of residents. We have Mormons that are directed by their religion to stock up on food and skills. We have the Seventh Day Adventists that (at least locally) are advocating for emergency preparedness and have been for years. We also have Christians that believe in stocking up because they fear persecution and we have immigrant populations that not only know how to raise food, but are extremely frugal because they come from wartorn or 3rd world countries like Bosnia, Viet Nam, Korea and the Caribbean Islands. Lots of people are stocked up, though they aren't prepping.

The one thing that is likely to run out in the city is ammunition. Most folks don't stock it. They may have a few boxes of shells for their weapons, but don't generally store great quantities. The other thing that would be in short supply is winter survival knowledge. In the northeast, we all have winter gear, but most don't have the kind of gear for camping outside and would likely freeze to death.

Humans are adaptable...It wouldn't take much hunger to encourage a person to never let it happen again. After that, the mere threat of it would be enough to keep folks working...the ones that are left, that is.


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## naturelover (Jun 6, 2006)

TheMartianChick said:


> As someone that lives in a city, I see all kinds of people that would react differently in a SHTF situation, but not necessarily in a negative way: .............


A most excellent post TMC. :thumb:

As someone who has lived repeatedly back and forth in both country and city settings, you've described exactly what my own observations have shown to me about most city dwellers. City dwellers are diverse people and shouldn't be underestimated simply because of a perpetuated country myth about "helpless city people".

.


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## TheMartianChick (May 26, 2009)

Thank you, naturelover! One other thing about living in a city is that when our power goes out...the water still runs, so sanitation isn't an issue unless pipes freeze and break. 

I think that people sometimes think that we need to cling to "like-minded people" in a shtf situation, when in fact, a lot can be learned from people that are unlike ourselves.


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## NickyBlade (May 27, 2008)

If the water plant has no electric, would the city still have water? I know when we were in Hawaii during the first "tsunami" the fear was the whole island losing power and, being an island, not being able to tap into a neighboring grid... which supposedly would have left us waterless too. But, nothing came of it, so I don't know. 

Personally, I'm unable to wish hardships or death on anyone. Death is inevitable and we will all face it eventually. I just hope the trip isn't completely unpleasant. 

I'm done thinking about who I'll have to kill to protect my goods. I've thought that way for years, but I'm starting to feel like what is the point in living if I want to off anyone who might have a post SHTF need? That's not living. It's certainly not Christian.


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## TheMartianChick (May 26, 2009)

In most mid to large municipalities, the water stays on when the power is out. My hubby could probably give a better explanation since he used to work in the field but our water system is gravity based. I'm sure that there are back up systems that can run on generator power, but (as an example) our homes do not have a water pump to propel the water to the faucets. At my parent's home in the sticks, if the power goes out, the water doesn't flow until they turn on the generator.


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## Wags (Jun 2, 2002)

But what if the water isn't running or is contaminated in a city? What if the gas isn't running? It wouldn't take an EMP to knock those out. An epidemic that kept the workers from showing up to keep those things flowing, or even the failure to pay them because the city is bankrupt would all stop the flow. Riots would keep some of those workers home too. 

What about those seemingly endless blocks of tenement buildings? Do you really think those people have extra food on hand to last more than a day or two? Can they survive it the government isn't handing out "freebies" anymore? Or do they riot when when the checks from uncle sam don't come?


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## emdeengee (Apr 20, 2010)

The OP sounds like self absorbed wishful thinking to me. I think the will of humans to edure is deeply under estimated. 

Just consider the siege of Leningrad. That lasted for nearly 900 days of starvation, disease, extreme cold and enemy bombardment. Between 600,000 and 800,000 people died out of the original population of 3 million. That still left 2 million of the "hoards" alive and ready to drop in at your place for supper.


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## mekasmom (Jan 19, 2010)

AverageJo said:


> What are your thoughts??


I think that it is not kind to want other people to "die off" or be "wiped out". That' just a selfish way of thinking.


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## cast iron (Oct 4, 2004)

I think we rural people tend to underestimate the city peoples ability to get through a bad situation, and severely Overestimate rural peoples ability to get through a bad situation. 

Look around you, do you really think that Bubba who lives on the property several acres over from yours is prepared to weather a real bad situation on his own? Do you think that Bubba is somehow wired different from the city humans and will not do whatever it takes for him and his clan to survive? There are often a lot of Bubba's and friends who live in the rural areas, and most folks have no idea just how many of them there are due to the larger tracts of land that separates folks in the rural areas.


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## springvalley (Jun 23, 2009)

mekasmom said:


> I think that it is not kind to want other people to "die off" or be "wiped out". That' just a selfish way of thinking.


I don`t think anyone is wishing people die, but letting mother nature take it`d course is better than killing anyone that wants to take your preps. I would like to see the look on your face the day that thousands are walking down your road looking for a handout. > Marc


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## springvalley (Jun 23, 2009)

emdeengee said:


> The OP sounds like self absorbed wishful thinking to me. I think the will of humans to edure is deeply under estimated.
> 
> Just consider the siege of Leningrad. That lasted for nearly 900 days of starvation, disease, extreme cold and enemy bombardment. Between 600,000 and 800,000 people died out of the original population of 3 million. That still left 2 million of the "hoards" alive and ready to drop in at your place for supper.


The will of humans will to endure has been deeply reduced by the modern handouts our society has bestowed upon them. Most people have no idea how to survive anything other than what they know, and they will not figure it out till it`s to late. You also have to understand this is no Leningrad, those poor souls had been down trodin for many, many years. And they knew how to survive on little to nothing. Is it wrong to say what others are thinking, if we have a SHTF scenario and the hoards are going to come. We can`t feed them all, so hoping it happens in the winter is only human nature to survive. And if it is a total failure on anypart, people will NOT walk far in the winter. Some will survive others will not, by spring those that have made it will venture out and those that made it in the countryside will be ready on the most part. They will have banned togeather to form little communities that can grow food and protect themselves. This is all speculation and who really knows what will happen. Only God knows and I sure hope I never have to see it. > Thanks and Blessings > Marc


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## TheMartianChick (May 26, 2009)

Wags said:


> But what if the water isn't running or is contaminated in a city? What if the gas isn't running? It wouldn't take an EMP to knock those out. An epidemic that kept the workers from showing up to keep those things flowing, or even the failure to pay them because the city is bankrupt would all stop the flow. Riots would keep some of those workers home too.
> 
> What about those seemingly endless blocks of tenement buildings? Do you really think those people have extra food on hand to last more than a day or two? Can they survive it the government isn't handing out "freebies" anymore? Or do they riot when when the checks from uncle sam don't come?


As I stated before, not all cities are set up in that way with lots of apartment buildings or tenements. In fact tenements are usually only found in the largest of cities. Most of the apartment dwellers in my area live in single family homes that were converted into 2 families.

A contaminant in the water would be an issue as far as potability is concerned. My point was that the water still flows without power in most cities. 

Most people that receive food stamps shop for almost all of their groceries at one time due to transportation issues and yes, many of them have quite a bit more food in their homes than you would think. A lot of it is the kind of food that just doesn't go together very well (Macaroni and mustard, anyone?) An awful lot of food stamp recipients perform work that is quite menial in nature and they aren't afraid of hard work since they do it every day.

As far as riots are concerned, I've never seen any in my city. My husband has told me about some small race skirmishes in the 1960's when he was a little boy. Riots are more likely to occur in the big cities.

edited to add: Without working gaslines, most of the houses have a fireplace or the people have a relative/friend that has one. Including our home, there are 6 woodburning units in the family and they are spread between 4 homes. Our entire city is comprised of victorian homes.


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## coolrunnin (Aug 28, 2010)

Water only flows while the standpipes or towers have water in them once it runs out without power your out.


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## naturelover (Jun 6, 2006)

katheh said:


> In today's society, people will quite literally starve waiting in line for help. Look back to Katrina- people stayed in that Superdome for days after they could have just walked away. Paralyzed by the possibility of having to care for themselves. If they hadn't been evacuated, they would have stayed even longer waiting for help.


I see that the Katrina event really made an unforgettable impression on people everywhere, didn't it? You mention it here, I've seen so many other people mention it at other times and use it as an example of other people's complacency. Sheepleness. A one off situation that happened in one place and people stayed where they were because many of them had nowhere else to go, they knew the hurricane would go away after a few hours and they knew that aid would eventually come from other parts of the country. So they waited.

It's unforgettable for everyone exactly because it's such a profound example of complacency and expectations that didn't work out the way they expected things to be, and nobody wants to ever see something like that happen again. Anyone who thinks that people everywhere else didn't learn a valuable lesson from that event and the example of complacency that was set is someone who hasn't learned anything about the lessons that other people learn.

Nobody in this era will forget Katrina and what happened there. It was a lesson for everyone everywhere and everyone will remember it when there's another disaster and the majority of people will try to do the best they can to not let something like that happen to themselves.

Katrina was a bad thing that happened but it was also a good thing that it happened because there was such a valuable lesson learned from it by millions upon millions of people around the world. I don't think we'll see such complacency again for many decades to come, if at all, because nobody wants that to happen to them after seeing what happened with Katrina.

.


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

> Katrina was a bad thing that happened but it was also a good thing that it happened because there was such a valuable lesson learned from it by millions upon millions of people around the world.
> 
> *I don't think we'll see such complacency again* for many decades to come, if at all, because nobody wants that to happen to them after seeing what happened with Katrina.


Don't underestimate the foolishness of humans
If another storm were to hit NO today, with the same results, you'd see it happen all over again.

Did you know that in 1999, much of the Eastern third of the state of NC was totally underwater for a week -2 weeks?

Probably not, because we didn't sit around waiting for help, and the media didn't turn it into a circus

Hurricane Floyd - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


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## emdeengee (Apr 20, 2010)

I see a lot of contempt for city dwellers in this thread and others. I think it is an extremely dangerous and arrogant attitude. 

Who do you think lives in these cities and towns? Decent hard working people and their families. Extremely well trained, skilled and viable people. There are criminals and lower class and lower educated people and those who would be helpless without a microwave but what about the rest of them? Police, firemen, truckers, engineers, carpenters, doctors, nurses, teachers, construction workers, scientists, writers etc etc. Just because someone is an intellectual today (something dispised and mocked for some stupid reason) does not mean that they always were or that they do not have interests, skills and hobbies that would serve them well in any dangerous situation.

Since people started migrating to the cities from the country (and it goes on to this day) many city dwellers have all the experience and skills they need because they brought them with them. Or they have learned new things. 

At least half of the people I have known when I lived in cities and towns came from much different circumstances. A lot of the teachers I have known still farmed. Teaching was their day job. 

And many of the military personnel I worked with retired to city jobs. My friend was a sniper deployed to Afghanistan. Do you think that she would do any less than you to protect her kids? And she has skills that would compete with anyones' skills and even allow her to take you and your family out one by one to take over your supplies. And she would not be doing this alone. Over confidence is a bad thing. The suburb of our friend from Bosnia was wiped out by a group of Christians driving construction vehicles. And guns are fine but how do you protect your house from fire bombing, incendiary devices, flame throwers and improvised bombs? His whole neighbourhood was burned to the ground. 

Do you think that a trucker could not figure out how to drive a tank? especially if he had a soldier with him. Do you think a landscaper could not figure out how to turn a park into a vegetable garden?

What I am trying to say is that a lot of people living in cities have been thrown into wars or other disasters when they were not prepared because they lived a different lifestyle but they learned quickly. 

People will survive and they will organize and they will search out what they need and they will have access to supplies that a lone farm will not have. So although a lot of preppers seem to look forward to a disaster and going it on their own with their cellar full of canned green beans it might be part of a preppers plan to work towards peaceful solutions and making contacts as opposed to shutting yourself down and away.


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## Wags (Jun 2, 2002)

I'm sure there will be city people that will manage to improvise, adapt and overcome. In modern war zones, who had the easier time of it. On another forum there is a man that lived in Bosnia during the war - he lived in a city. His family got together and worked to keep themselves alive, but he says they would have died of starvation if it weren't for the humanitarian air drops. What if there were no air drops? He and his extended family have now invested in farm land, and are working to make themselves a retreat and a place of self sufficiency should they ever find themselves in similar circumstances. .


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## naturelover (Jun 6, 2006)

emdeengee said:


> ..... Just because someone is an intellectual today (something dispised and mocked *for some stupid reason*) ......


Stupidity IS the reason for the mockery of intellectualism. The people who despise and mock intellectuals are usually people who are under-educated and ignorant themselves. Most of them know it too but there's nothing they're willing (or able) to do to improve the situation so they hide behind pride of their ignorance instead and it makes them feel better about themselves to make mockery of the things they don't know and the people who know better. I think it's a shame because very often people who are ignorant are that way through no fault of their own, they often are extremely intelligent but lacking in opportunity and education and not motivated to improve their lot - and there goes another brilliant mind wasted. 

Sorry, I digress, but WILLFUL ignorance is such a bone of contention for me.

.


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## janetn (Apr 26, 2012)

Yes their are lot of folks who have skills and are good folks in the cities. The problem is that their are also a whole lot of ghetto gang banger types too. When they have finished with pillaging their own nests they will move to other areas of the cities and burbs. They will be like a roving pack of rabid wolves. The folks with the training and skills to repel those roving bands will of course have a much better chance of making it. 
Here in the northern states if TSHTF in the late fall winter people will have to move south either by hook or crook. Most homes do not have fireplaces or woodstoves in the cities here. You can live quite a while without food but hypothermia will kill you quick. The northeren states are just not habitable without alternative forms of heat. Leningrad is not a good expample because back then you didint have central heating with gas like you do now. Homes were still heated with wood or coal, those folks could tear up furniture ect for heat because they alredy had the exisiting fireplaces or coal furnaces. That is no longer true. Some of the newer homes have those gas burning fireplaces with the fake logs - but they will not work if the gas does not flow. Heat is the key to surviviial in the northern states. In January you are not going to walk out of any city to a rural area - You will freeze to death. Some may make it in early November if they have the skills to. If autos are not an option you are not going to get far at all. The majority of deaths will be from cold not starving. Prepping with food only wont make a big difference in the cold weather. If the grid is lost in the north the death rate will be catastrophic in the cities

In the rural areas many more folks use wood for heat. That will be the big difference in the chances for surviving the first year.


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## painterswife (Jun 7, 2004)

janetn said:


> Yes their are lot of folks who have skills and are good folks in the cities. The problem is that their are also a whole lot of ghetto gang banger types too. When they have finished with pillaging their own nests they will move to other areas of the cities and burbs. They will be like a roving pack of rabid wolves. The folks with the training and skills to repel those roving bands will of course have a much better chance of making it.
> Here in the northern states if TSHTF in the late fall winter people will have to move south either by hook or crook. Most homes do not have fireplaces or woodstoves in the cities here. You can live quite a while without food but hypothermia will kill you quick. The northeren states are just not habitable without alternative forms of heat. Leningrad is not a good expample because back then you didint have central heating with gas like you do now. Homes were still heated with wood or coal, those folks could tear up furniture ect for heat because they alredy had the exisiting fireplaces or coal furnaces. That is no longer true. Some of the newer homes have those gas burning fireplaces with the fake logs - but they will not work if the gas does not flow. Heat is the key to surviviial in the northern states. In January you are not going to walk out of any city to a rural area - You will freeze to death. Some may make it in early November if they have the skills to. If autos are not an option you are not going to get far at all. The majority of deaths will be from cold not starving. Prepping with food only wont make a big difference in the cold weather. If the grid is lost in the north the death rate will be catastrophic in the cities
> 
> In the rural areas many more folks use wood for heat. That will be the big difference in the chances for surviving the first year.


People are very resourceful. There are enough homes with working fireplaces so that people could work together to share rooms and heat. I know if I was cold we would scavenge insulation, live in a small space,jury rig a barrel heater, the options are endless. I could jury rig a fireplace with paving stones and pipe. The human race got us to where we are today with brains and ingenuity. They are perfectly capable of surviving if they want to.


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## emdeengee (Apr 20, 2010)

janetn said:


> Yes their are lot of folks who have skills and are good folks in the cities. The problem is that their are also a whole lot of ghetto gang banger types too. When they have finished with pillaging their own nests they will move to other areas of the cities and burbs. They will be like a roving pack of rabid wolves. The folks with the training and skills to repel those roving bands will of course have a much better chance of making it.
> Here in the northern states if TSHTF in the late fall winter people will have to move south either by hook or crook. Most homes do not have fireplaces or woodstoves in the cities here. You can live quite a while without food but hypothermia will kill you quick. The northeren states are just not habitable without alternative forms of heat. Leningrad is not a good expample because back then you didint have central heating with gas like you do now. Homes were still heated with wood or coal, those folks could tear up furniture ect for heat because they alredy had the exisiting fireplaces or coal furnaces. That is no longer true. Some of the newer homes have those gas burning fireplaces with the fake logs - but they will not work if the gas does not flow. Heat is the key to surviviial in the northern states. In January you are not going to walk out of any city to a rural area - You will freeze to death. Some may make it in early November if they have the skills to. If autos are not an option you are not going to get far at all. The majority of deaths will be from cold not starving. Prepping with food only wont make a big difference in the cold weather. If the grid is lost in the north the death rate will be catastrophic in the cities
> 
> In the rural areas many more folks use wood for heat. That will be the big difference in the chances for surviving the first year.


People will die from cold but not all. Suffering will be intense.

While people are figuring out how to build or install chimneys if/ when there are no supplies there is a simple thing they can do for their fire - has worked for tens of thousands of years. It is called a hole in the roof. Just position over the fire pit. It will keep you from freezing if you have enough furniture to chop up. 

And of course you can go underground - basements, parking garages, subway stations etc - where the temperature will be survivable because of the ground surrounding it.


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## TheMartianChick (May 26, 2009)

janetn said:


> Here in the northern states if TSHTF in the late fall winter people will have to move south either by hook or crook. *Most homes do not have fireplaces or woodstoves in the cities here. You can live quite a while without food but hypothermia will kill you quick. The northeren states are just not habitable without alternative forms of heat.* Leningrad is not a good expample because back then you didint have central heating with gas like you do now. Homes were still heated with wood or coal, those folks could tear up furniture ect for heat because they alredy had the exisiting fireplaces or coal furnaces. That is no longer true. Some of the newer homes have those gas burning fireplaces with the fake logs - but they will not work if the gas does not flow. Heat is the key to surviviial in the northern states. In January you are not going to walk out of any city to a rural area - You will freeze to death. Some may make it in early November if they have the skills to. If autos are not an option you are not going to get far at all. The majority of deaths will be from cold not starving. Prepping with food only wont make a big difference in the cold weather. If the grid is lost in the north the death rate will be catastrophic in the cities
> 
> In the rural areas many more folks use wood for heat. That will be the big difference in the chances for surviving the first year.


The funny thing is that in our area, it is the folks that live in suburban/rural areas that don't have woodburners. The newer homes are in the suburbs so they are either all electric or rely on some type of heating fuel that will run short. Most of the fireplaces in the burbs are gas powered, not wood because people didn't like the mess that firewood makes.Many of the fireplaces in the rural areas here have been converted to gas for the same reason. The city homes here have the largest concentrations of fireplaces of any in the county.


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## Ozarks Tom (May 27, 2011)

I'm sure lots of folks in the cities have full cupboards and freezers, but what percentage? And, just how long will those supplies last? 2 weeks, a month? What are they going to do after that?

The OP was concerning the eventuality of a long term regional or national crisis. That's a whole different story from an ice storm leaving several cities without power for a week or two. Her concern about people descending on her place demanding to be fed is valid. Having to defend your property from groups or individuals is also a valid scenario to consider a prepare for.

The "everything will be fine" folks are living in a dream world. Society's civil veneer is a lot thinner than they seem to think. How many days without food does it take for the "intellectual" to turn feral? 

The "it's not Christian" folks who wouldn't turn away hungry people, to the point of starving their own children need to re-read their bible. I'm not able to quote chapter and verse, but have read it enough times to remember several admonitions about not feeding the lazy and unprepared.

When you get done with the feel-good rhetoric, and it's either you or them, I hope it's most of you.


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## Wags (Jun 2, 2002)

Folks that think they are owed/entitled to be fed, clothed and sheltered in the style they have become accustomed too, will continue to feel entitled to whatever they want, when they want it. Some live in rural areas, but that mentality is more commonly found in urban/suburban areas.

Look what happened last year in Texas where there were free housing vouchers being handed out. Looked like a "Black Friday" sort of mob. [ame=http://youtu.be/Q5ocjZ9GatA]Dallas Housing Authority Section 8 Chaos - YouTube[/ame] If this had been a line for food, and folks were truly hungry I think this would have gotten much worse very quickly.


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## defenestrate (Aug 23, 2005)

Bearfootfarm said:


> Did you know that in 1999, much of the Eastern third of the state of NC was totally underwater for a week -2 weeks?
> 
> Hurricane Floyd - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


It is probably worth pointing out that the many small "backward" "rural" communities in eastern NC mostly produce as much as they consume, more or less. I was in Greenville and watched the Tar River creep up my street, and though the town was an island until the river and swamps receded, we had power back on within about 24 hours. I was impressed with that.

Most modern cities were built as commerce hubs, creating what we call money, importing a huge portion of their food and other consumables. This varies per city, but a place like NO, a bowl surrounded by levees as well as a place that imports almost all consumables, doesn't have a lot of recourse. Other areas were more badly damaged but more self-sufficient and produced more of their own food which helped, though lots of folks lost much or all of their material inventory. Katrina was rough for a number of reasons, some of which have been corrected, but I agree that it is still quite vulnerable. I was amazed that so many people were okay after that kind of flooding and also impressed with the Mississippi River floods last year (I was in Memphis).


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

> we had power back on within about 24 hours.* I was impressed with that*.


I was also.
That was the first time ANYONE knew you could run those transformers *submerged,* with just the tops out of the water:



> They used their ingenuity, their creativity and their experience and their skill sets to solve those problems on the fly.&#8221;
> GUC employees stayed on the job in spite of destructive flooding in their own homes and loss of their own vehicles. The utility lost a quarter of its vehicles and a large portion of its rolling stock in the flood.
> 
> To restore electric service, GUC employees decided to *disable the protective circuitry on one usable transformer and reroute protection from a site 40 miles away*.
> ...


They even had people out *on the river* stopping debris from hitting the lines


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## Sanza (Sep 8, 2008)

naturelover said:


> Stupidity IS the reason for the mockery of intellectualism. The people who despise and mock intellectuals are usually people who are under-educated and ignorant themselves. Most of them know it too but there's nothing they're willing (or able) to do to improve the situation so they hide behind pride of their ignorance instead and it makes them feel better about themselves to make mockery of the things they don't know and the people who know better. I think it's a shame because very often people who are ignorant are that way through no fault of their own, they often are extremely intelligent but lacking in opportunity and education and not motivated to improve their lot - and there goes another brilliant mind wasted.
> 
> Sorry, I digress, but WILLFUL ignorance is such a bone of contention for me.
> 
> .


 Wow! What does this snarky remark have to do with the topic? Everyone is entitled to their own opinions whether they parellel yours or not.


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## springvalley (Jun 23, 2009)

Do any of you watch what people buy for food? I do, most younger people (not all) live off of pop and pizza and frozen foods. I for one don`t think very many people have weeks worth of food stuck away, I know how most people shop around here, it isn`t pretty. And most people do not have enough common sense to come in out of the rain, let alone to be able to cook in their homes on a camp fire. How many people have died from heating a room or house with a gas BBQ grill. Sorry, but I have very little faith in most people and their ability to survive SHTF . My Opinion. > Thanks Marc


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## Wags (Jun 2, 2002)

naturelover said:


> Stupidity IS the reason for the mockery of intellectualism. The people who despise and mock intellectuals are usually people who are under-educated and ignorant themselves. Most of them know it too but there's nothing they're willing (or able) to do to improve the situation so they hide behind pride of their ignorance instead and it makes them feel better about themselves to make mockery of the things they don't know and the people who know better. I think it's a shame because very often people who are ignorant are that way through no fault of their own, they often are extremely intelligent but lacking in opportunity and education and not motivated to improve their lot - and there goes another brilliant mind wasted.
> 
> Sorry, I digress, but WILLFUL ignorance is such a bone of contention for me.
> 
> .


Common sense and intellectualism are often at odds. Neither thinks much of the other as you have so aptly proven. Further, you really shouldn't generalize that people that don't put much stock in intellectualism don't have a fine education. 

Common Sense folks (Realist) probably should have pity on all those "intellectuals" after all it isn't their fault that they are lacking in opportunity and education on common sense topics and are not motivated to improve their lot.


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## Bettacreek (May 19, 2012)

To be honest, I think people who have not prepped just might be better off in some situations than some who do have full preps. Why? Well, what happens if you have to evacuate? The folks with no preps are more willing to run, and sometimes running might be exactly what saves your grits. I've been reading Selco's blog, and honestly, the ones who weren't prepped and ran at the first sign were mostly better off than those who had prepped and stayed. Then again, even non-preppers survived. Those who are not prepped are going to do whatever they need to to survive and keep their family alive. Period. If they are not, then they may well die off quickly, but then the "strongest" survive, which very well might mean that those "strongest" are the ones who have nothing and are willing to kill for what they need. Also, when people speak of rural bug out lands, if they're really thinking SHTF in a big way where the country goes down, do you really think having a shack in the middle of nowhere is going to be safe? It'll be like a check-point to travelers. They might be traveling through different states, through wilderness, and see that cabin and they're immediately going to be drawn to it.


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## Ozarks Tom (May 27, 2011)

Just thought I'd point out the fallacy of using Leningrad as a model for survival. Canibalism was rampant.


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## emdeengee (Apr 20, 2010)

I was not using Leningrad as a model mearly as an example that even under the most dire conditions people will survive. To presume (and hope) that you will be safe in the country because the bad city people will die out the first winter is just not realistic. And I think it is vitally important to remember that most of the people in the cities are just ordinary people like their country cousins so to anticipate (and hope for) their deaths is rather distasteful.


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## Ozarks Tom (May 27, 2011)

I personally don't hope for anyone's death, unless I just shot a gun a them. I also don't think living in the country makes us safe. However; living in the country does allow us the space to prepare for possible events beyond anyone's control, including city (or any other) people trying to take what's ours. That includes intellectuals.


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## naturelover (Jun 6, 2006)

Sanza said:


> Wow! What does this snarky remark have to do with the topic? Everyone is entitled to their own opinions whether they parellel yours or not.


I was responding to and in agreement with a comment that Em made. Have you taken it upon yourself now to respond to me on her behalf? If not then what does your snarky comment have to do with my response to her? As you say, everyone is entitled to their own opinions whether they parallel yours or not. I think that Em is capable of speaking for herself if she has something to say in return about my response to her.

.


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## Peggy (Feb 14, 2010)

I am more afraid of the people in the neighborhood first. i'm sure most of them are not preppers. I would think anyone with small children would do anything to keep their children from starving. guess crazy people from the city would come next. also the people who are on Meds and can no longer get anything would become a problem once the medication wore off.


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## barefootboy (Sep 30, 2012)

Just to throw out a thought into the mix here.
Many believe the "bad guys" ( pick your own flavor) out of ruthlessness will be able to survive in an urban enivorment after an event. But what keeps them from being gunned down even now are the laws. Once any kind of martial law is declared, or people feel there is no law, then the thugs would find themselves getting gunned down. Yes, they might kill 5 out of 6 people in a city who would not know how to fight back, but that 6th one just might have a gun and will take one or more with him. This is not counting fights between rival groups, or within groups for power, or over loot, or while in a drunken or drugged state. Meanwhile, disease, bad food or water, or other effects may also cut down their numbers.
Also, gangs are comfortable on their turf. Take them out of the city and they will be lost.
I do expect some kind of "hoards" coming out of the cities. I also know that my neighbors, local police, local veterans, hunters and others that survive will form a group to defend the area. We are armed , experianced and know the terrain.
Maybe they will overrun us and win, maybe we'll kill them or drive them off. There are no certainties. But I give the odds to the hunter with a scoped 30-06 verses a thug with his 9mm.


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## Ozarks Tom (May 27, 2011)

One nice thing about living in the country is the locals know who the unsavory individuals are, and in a SHTF situation, they would most likely quietly disappear. I can think of 4 backhoes within a 2 mile radius.


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## naturelover (Jun 6, 2006)

Wags said:


> *Common sense and intellectualism are often at odds.* Neither thinks much of the other as you have so aptly proven. Further, you really shouldn't generalize that people that don't put much stock in intellectualism don't have a fine education.
> 
> *Common Sense folks (Realist) probably should have pity on all those "intellectuals" after all it isn't their fault that they are lacking in opportunity and education on common sense topics and are not motivated to improve their lot.*


Maybe, maybe not. I think it's a matter of perspective. Common sense and intellectualism do not have to be at odds, they only are if people choose to be at odds.

One of the very most intellectual and also most common sense, realistic people I've ever met in real life was a person I met here on this board. He was also one of the most simple of people I've ever met. He's dead now but lots of people on this board had good dealings with him and a few people here will know who I'm talking about. He was in Missouri, made a hand-to-mouth living as a herb farmer, hunter, trapper, carpenter and odd-jobs jack of all trades, was as conservative a republican as they come, lived a short, round, fat, red-necked country-hick Ozarks Indian hillbilly lifestyle out in the boonies and proudly identified himself as a hillbilly for part of his user name. He had no formal education, had to drop out of school when he was age 11 in grade 5 and never had any opportunities to complete schooling. Was a terrible speller (spelled phonetically) and often got bullied and ragged on dreadfully by other people here (who fancied themselves as intellectuals) for his bad spelling, his lack of formal education and simple lifestyle and his heritage but that man knew everything. And I mean everything, including everything about science, engineering, religion, plants, nature, animals, society, politics, the complete known history of the world, and had the complete history of America and America's military history and the political and military history of other countries memorized and much, much more. He understood everything about human nature of people who live in cities and people who live in the country. Anybody could ask him any question about anything - literally anything - and he knew the correct answer or knew where to find the right answer and he put his answers together very wisely so that everyone else could understand the answers.

Some people resented him because he knew so much and some other people respected him because he knew so much. 

He became such a knowledgeable intellectual in spite of his arrested education, simple upbringing and lack of opportunity because he was interested and curious about everything, motivated to improve himself and his knowledge in his own way and became a self-educated man through questing for personal experiences, making opportunities for himself through trial and error, reading or learning about something new every day and through observation of human nature. He had an overwhelming curiosity and interest and WANTED to know everything and set out to do that but never made assumptions about people or about what people in cities or the country _might_ do when the SHTF.

America and Homesteading Today lost a treasure and wealth of knowledge and wisdom when he died. I would have loved to have seen his realistic, common sense but intellectual responses to this topic and some of the other topics that have come up on this board lately. It's too bad there aren't more people like him around who are motivated and want to learn and know everything they possibly can and continue learning for as long as they live.

Okay, somebody else can ask me what this has to do with this topic but if you have to ask ..... well never mind, just pretend you didn't read it .... :hysterical::grin::nana:

.


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

> Okay, somebody else can ask me what this has to do with this topic but if you have to ask


What topic?


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## naturelover (Jun 6, 2006)

I don't know. :hohum:










.


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## lonelytree (Feb 28, 2008)

Bearfootfarm said:


> Don't underestimate the foolishness of humans
> If another storm were to hit NO today, with the same results, you'd see it happen all over again.
> 
> Did you know that in 1999, much of the Eastern third of the state of NC was totally underwater for a week -2 weeks?
> ...


I was there. It was nasty. Caskets floating down the ditches, dead hogs and chickens everywhere, used oil, diesel, gasiline from underground tanks, snakes everywhere. It washed out some great bass ponds too. Did a lot of community service during that time. Removed down trees for vet widows mostly.


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

naturelover said:


> I don't know. :hohum:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


 I suspected as much

eep:


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

> dead hogs and chickens everywhere


One of my friends lost 400 cows, and I know lots of people whose 2-story homes were* totally* submerged.
It was surreal


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## barefootboy (Sep 30, 2012)

I knew that area of NC back then. It was one of my routes Smithfield, Dunn, Clinton, Goldsboro, Wilson, Rocky Mount. I was there for Fran, but had just moved to the Mid west when that all went down.
And I agree with Bearfootfarms, there was little media coverage, or appeals for outside help. I was hearing about the situation from relatives and friends back there.
And, yes, the people of eastern NC are the type to handle things without whining.
The same way the people here went through the tropical storm and flooding last year and worked together.
All the floods and other disasters I have personally seen are reasons why I believe if push comes to shove, the good people will rise to the occasion, share and work together, and stand if they must against the "hoards".


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## justincase (Jul 16, 2011)

I think it will go something like this. First will be sickly in hosp. and such. The middle age will hunker down I think. it iwll be a gathering at first of all city dwellers in the streets demanding help ebt cards etc. I think that will take about 2 weeks before they realize help is not coming. That is when the gangs (already formed street gangs will be in full force) Regular folks will be out of food at that point and desperate to feed their loved ones...so it will begin. The regular joe will be on the streets trying to buy something but the gangs have already looted and started their own little bartering system. It wil be a black market of price gouging food. Reg Joe will be paying 100.00 for a can of beans.Most will be shot on the street while trying to venture out to get food. Either reg joe risks his life or stay in ans starve. The gangs will have controll and LOVE it. It will be a risky choise, I think most men will venture out to try and find something to feed his wife and kids and end up dead. Gangs will be running out of what they looted and start door to door raids inhopes of gathering more stuff to sell. There money will be low and anything they want to buy will depleat thier resources pretty fast. I think within 4 weeks is when the massive amounts of people will be rolling into small towns. But by now they will be hungry and week for the most part. Of course thier will be some of the gang members in good health and with others to help. I do not think it will take long though that they kill eachother off befor they even get outta the city. That is there competition normally imagin if it were life and death. i think that there will be the family that survived the first round and venture out to get help. that will be the second round. i do not think this will be drones of p[eople in 10 phases, I think the initial 2 or 3 months and it will be very sppradic after that


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## MullersLaneFarm (Jul 23, 2004)

> But the fact is that there are those, like my own family, that don't have more than a couple of days food in the pantry/freezer/frig


I can't get past that you guys only have a couple days worth of food at your place to even think about the original post. Plenty of food on the hoof.


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## sss3 (Jul 15, 2007)

Back in the Depression, wildlife, including all birds, disappeared within the first two months. Just wondering, aren't gangs associated w/smoking, drinking and drugs? All used heavily. Not just recreational. W/habits like these, how can they get very far? Couldn't imagine them walking 20 mi.


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## painterswife (Jun 7, 2004)

MullersLaneFarm said:


> I can't get past that you guys only have a couple days worth of food at your place to even think about the original post. Plenty of food on the hoof.


A couple of days of food or months worth of food are no good at all if you can not get to it or it is destroyed. You are far better off with some basic supplies and the ability to feed yourself from what is growing in your local forest.


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## MullersLaneFarm (Jul 23, 2004)

Forest?? In Ill-annoy?? Maybe some woods, but no forest around here for us.

AverageJo & SpringValley do have some nice woods though. You two are far enough back off the main track that they would have to find you first!!!


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## farmerDale (Jan 8, 2011)

This is an awesome thread, save for a couple volleys regarding the dimwitted vs. the uber educated! lol

I must as a farmer in an actual rural area step in. I have many relatives in cities. They will die so fast it will be hard to watch. The higher the fake intellect, IE degrees, masters, etc., the far less likely they are to survive, as they have burnt out their brains on books, and not learned how to grow or hunt for food, much less own and operate a rifle. 

The worst of these offenders live in none other than Vancouver B.C. Sure, the climate is more hospitable, but my relatives out there, though they are proud to be "green", "sustainable", and generally are well educated by the degree on the wall standard, would not survive more than a few days, and I believe they are not alone. It is not as though the tiny fraser valley produces all the food they need. It is not as though the climate will save them. Nay, these people are just absolutely clueless when it comes to survival of any kind.

They are scared spitless of guns.

They can grow a few sprigs of parsley and maybe a tomato on their balcony, but the world around them is pavement.

They could not bring themselves to kill a wild animal, as it is we humans who are trespassing on the animals land, so all wild animals must be left as nature intended.

Knowing how many people will attend the next gay pride parade will do nothing to save them.

They are so dependent on being green and saving the trees, and trying to save the earth with a 100 mile diet, that this will limit them

They can only ride their bikes and carry so many pounds of food at one time.

They will have too much pride in their paper degrees that they will refuse to burn them if there is a tough winter.

The above are somewhat tongue in cheek, but seriously, I think the vast dieoff that will occur in the urban areas will be astounding, not because urbanites are dumb, but because they have no life sustaining skills any more. READ: They are too far removed from the farm to know what the h to do to survive.

Of course, there are a few exceptions, but I have been to Vancouver MANY times, and out of the hundreds I have met, not one would have a clue which end of a cow was where to get a hold of to get some milk, if they knew cows gave milk at all. For them food comes from the store, the farmers market, the pier, granville island, or east side marios on the north shore. Their clothes are rarely practical, but for show, with those skinny jeans, and tiny high heeled bootlet things that will not give them locomotion they require when off road, Readavement.

Sorry to naturelover and all the urbanites who DO have somewhat of a clue, but sadly, in todays society, it is a given most will have no clue at all with what to do to survive. 

My numbers would put the dieoff at 80 plus percent within a month, depending on the issue at hand. A warm climate does nothing for you if you have no food, no power, no weapons, and no clue.

Now, in a city like Saskatoon, I would wager nearly half of the residents would have ties to the farm still, wherein they would have either the means to know how to survive, or a place to actually go.

So sorry, I agree with Sanza on this one. Many are underestimating the pathetic situation which would conspire, it is a sign of our times...


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## naturelover (Jun 6, 2006)

farmerDale said:


> I must as a farmer in an actual rural area step in. I have many relatives in cities. They will die so fast it will be hard to watch.
> 
> The worst of these offenders live in none other than Vancouver B.C. Sure, the climate is more hospitable, but my relatives out there, though they are proud to be "green", "sustainable", and generally are well educated by the degree on the wall standard, would not survive more than a few days, and I believe they are not alone. It is not as though the tiny fraser valley produces all the food they need. It is not as though the climate will save them. Nay, these people are just absolutely clueless when it comes to survival of any kind....


Yes, I have to agree if you have relatives living in the downtown core of Vancouver, if there's a serious SHTF they will probably be toast and you should kiss them bye bye. There's a million people combined living in the adjoining cities of Vancouver, Burnaby, New Westminster and Coquitlam and they're all boxed in with no where to go, being surrounded on 3 sides by water and impassable mountains on the 4th side. Fortunately about half of all those people who aren't in the downtown city core grow back yard gardens and community gardens so they may have to depend on that to help get them by. There are hundreds of wild parkland and several farms within those 4 cities that would have to be appropriated to grow stuff. I think a quarter of the people in those 4 combined cities would be lost to attrition if TSHTF so could easily be looking at the loss of 250,000 people.

The Fraser Valley, where another 1*.*4 million people live, is of course much bigger in area and is all farmlands and wild wetlands and those rural people have easier exits out of the valley if they have to leave. I doubt they would leave though since why would they want to leave their farmlands when it would mean travelling into the passable mountains or crossing the border into Washington where there's 6 times more people who would most likely be hostile.

I think rural people have to look at the population numbers and geographical barriers and logistics of each city that is closest to them to try to determine how much of a threat each city might pose to them.

.


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## Sanza (Sep 8, 2008)

My closest city is Edmonton and it's more then an hours drive to the sw there. The only city north of me is Fort Mac and I am not in a direct line between the two cities if the people have an idea of an exodus to warmer climes. 
I also live off the highway and on the edge of over 2000 sq km block of no towns and very few human inhabitants. 

When I read what you wrote about your area and population all I can tell you is "get out of Dodge" before it's too late. And I mean it in a good way.....


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## naturelover (Jun 6, 2006)

Sanza said:


> My closest city is Edmonton and it's more then an hours drive to the sw there. The only city north of me is Fort Mac and I am not in a direct line between the two cities if the people have an idea of an exodus to warmer climes.
> I also live off the highway and on the edge of over 2000 sq km block of no towns and very few human inhabitants.
> 
> *When I read what you wrote about your area and population all I can tell you is "get out of Dodge" before it's too late.* And I mean it in a good way.....


I moved out of Dodge in the summer. Where I'm at now is a rural farm town on the north side of the Fraser, with big lakes and rivers to the west and east and the Pacific Coast Range mountains to the north. I'm in the southern foothills of the mountain in the forefront in this picture. It's rather like having a freshwater moat around confining the agricultural lands and to fish from, and a wild forested larder to forage from at my back, so I'm comfortable with this location.










.


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## reluctantpatriot (Mar 9, 2003)

James Rawls pointed out the advantages and disadvantages of rural, small town, suburban and urban living. Rural denizens will need to have everything they need and sufficient people to provide for all tasks. This means EVERYTHING, right down to enough seeds to deal with several poor growing seasons, having fire fighting apparatus, enough people to run several picket shifts of guard duty, enough people with enough overlap of skills to deal with medical, mechanical, agricultural and other areas.

Even then, by my calculations one would need to live over 300 miles from any population center above a few thousand residents and be so isolated that there would be effectively no interstate or state highways within about 50 miles of ones homestead. Even so, there are few places that are not downstream from some threat of another sort, be it a dam, power plant, military base or something else that might be a target or eventual threat if attacked.

Rural settings may in some aspects be defense by obscurity, but small, remote homesteads make for easier pickings. Mobile homesteading restricts supply reserves. Urban homesteading has to deal with high population density and less ability to store up.

Hoping that 80 percent or more of the population dies off so that you and yours will be able to survive is a false logic. Lone wolf individuals of the mountainman days were very few and even they had to come back to population centers to trade their furs and hides for supplies. One might live apart for a short time, but long term survival means cooperating in a group setting. No one person can know everything or be highly skilled in everything to the point where they can live alone without shortcomings. All it would take is falling badly ill, sustaining a major injury or even becoming sufficiently hot, cold or dehydrated to put oneself into a life threatening situation that without proper help from others will result in death.

If intellectual, educated people are viewed as threats, those of you who think they are useless, might need to think about the consequences of that mindset. Chemists, biologists, engineers, historians, artists, teachers, doctors, and even liberal arts majors can be of help by providing novel or different viewpoints and solutions to problems.

Besides, if someone wants to disparage my education, why would I provide my skills in gun repair, firearm reloading, mechanical repair skills, carpentry, gardening, hunting, camping and other skills to you in your time of need? For that matter, why would I want to help you in your time of medical need? I know CPA and first aid. I also know veterinary medicine. Of course, I am also fluent in Spanish, know information technology and anthropology, but I guess that makes me useless?


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## Bettacreek (May 19, 2012)

I am shocked to see that people believe that intelligence has much to do with survivability. 

"The higher the fake intellect, IE degrees, masters, etc., the far less likely they are to survive, as they have burnt out their brains on books, and not learned how to grow or hunt for food, much less own and operate a rifle. "

Not exactly true. I know of plenty of geniuses who hunt and cover the bases of growing their own foods. I was professionally tested at genius level, was top of my class without even trying in college, and yet I still enjoy the simple things in life. Many people of the "city type" here like to "insult" me because of the small scale "farming" I do here, many are of lesser intelligence. Do I believe that because of my intelligence that I'd outsurvive any "dumb" farmer? Hells no. Do I believe that because of my knowledge of growing food, that I'd outsurvive folks who're more intelligent than I am? Hells no. I know for a fact that I'm an emotional and empathetic gal and would have a very hard time shooting someone, even if it came down to sheer necessity of my life. Anyways, the whole thing of IQ's, an IQ isn't how much somebody knows, it's how quickly they can process and use information. So, while they might have never grown a tomato plant, they can typically pick up HOW TO very easily. Yes, it takes experience, but, really, how many of us have grown all of our own food to feed our entire families under pressure (people gunning down other people, not being able to leave the house, having to keep under cover) with absolutely no outside help?


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## springvalley (Jun 23, 2009)

I was thinking of this the other day as I drove over the Mississippi river, we have large grain elevators in almost every town around here. And I thought how many people would walk by a corn bin and not figure out how to use the grain to survive. Thousands and thousands of bushels of corn, soybeans and wheat just sitting there, waiting to be ground into meal and eaten. As Farmerdale said, people are so far removed from farming they have no idea what to do with what they have right in front of them. We have made plans for this situation, we have told family to get here asap, and bring whatever you can, don`t come empty handed. We have also asked a few neighbors and friends to join the community, and thats what it will be, A COMMUNITY. Each helping with what ever task at hand they can do, watch kids, cook, clean, chores, milking, gardening,medical, canning,washing,farming, animal care, firewood, sewing, knitting, and much more. And the biggest thing of all, PROTECTION, very hard to farm when your having to watch over your shoulder to see if anyone is coming your way. I do think that this form of COMMUNITY will work, it will be rough, hard work, but with it comes surviving and living. We know how to do alot of things, we have the knowhow and ability to farm with horses, have many differant types of animals, and alot of knowledge about old time skills. Now In a perfect world, I wish everyone can survive and thrive and live happily ever after. But we all know the chances of that happening, TWO, slim and none. My idea is plan for the worst and hope for the best, and maybe it will fall someplace in the middle. I LOVE people, and don`t want to see bad befall on anyone, but we all know if some major problem happens in this world, we aien`t all going to make it. And The first thing I think we should all do is fall to our knees and beg the good Lord to forgive us of our sins and what we are about to do. And to watch over us and beg for mercy and forgiveness, because it is going to be a rough road ahead, and help us make the right choices. Enough said. > Thanks and Blessings > Marc


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## MullersLaneFarm (Jul 23, 2004)

Good post, Marc.

Carla Emery couldn't stress the importance of networking enough. She made me promise to continue to hold our 'Homesteading Weekends' every year even though ForeRunner & Wendy had one and they are only a few hours down the road from us. Wendy also made me promise to continue. Both these wonderful women went to be with our Lord within a year of extracting that promise from me. We will continue to hold our weekend so folks can network. It is more than just a social gathering or learning new skills. It is finding out who in your area have what skills and what type a person they are IRL. It is networking and knowing who has what talent.


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## texican (Oct 4, 2003)

AverageJo said:


> DH and I have discussed this quite a bit. We live where it does get cold and winter is just around the corner. Would it be best for US if the hoards in the cities are full of sheeples or if they were half-prepped folks? It may seem self-centered on our part, but I'd prefer if they were full sheeple and not prepared at all. They wouldn't make it through the winter if they stayed in the city, perhaps, and it would be too cold for them to get out. We're talking major poo hitting the fan, not just a blizzard or ice storm, although we could envision a couple of weeks without electric for a portion of the city, but that wouldn't wipe them out...
> 
> Anyway, I'd rather have a quick die out of the hoards rather than a bunch of people that were prepped only enough to make it to spring and then swarm the countryside when we're trying to get our own gardens going, etc.
> 
> What are your thoughts??


If you double up on your scenario... shtf AND a blizzard, imho, as long as you can't see the 'halo' of town on the horizon, you'd be good. Normal shtf, three days without power, and no food or fuel deliveries... with a blizzard and power out, it's an immediate no food or fuel delivery situation. Heck, even forget about the city factor, if someone isn't prepped, with extra food and fuel, they're toast, in a sub zero deep drift blizzard. Most folks I imagine have some kind of heat backup, but if the grid is gone, no more fuel for vehicles, atv's or snowmobiles. 

Surely someone in the cities up north have wood heaters... even if they don't have enough firewood on hand, they'd have enough furniture to burn for a week or so.

Question is, how long can a large city, stranded by a blizzard, with no power, in a country that's lost all it's safety net/response/infrastructure last? Everyone has to live or die with what they personally have on hand. Looting a store that's on the other side of town? Five miles through a snow drift? Not likely. How many city dwellers have snowgos and keep fuel on hand for long expeditions?


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## Andy Nonymous (Aug 20, 2005)

I was up late Sat night with an aching tooth, and for a distraction watched The Matrix Reloaded for the first time. I see a corollary for this thread. Pardon the length, but like the Matrix, there is more to the OP question than meets the eye.

Those who have seen the series may not need the six second synopsis (minus shoot-em'-ups and chase scenes), but for those who haven't (or don't remember), in the first movie, Neo, escapee from the supercomputer run delusion called "the Matrix", eventually realizes he is "the One" who can see the Matrix for what it is and can possibly beat the machine, freeing all humankind from it's subjugation (even though it comes out that some prefer being unwitting slaves that fuel the delusion). We are left at the end of the first movie thinking Neo can and will prevail. In "Reloaded", Neo meets the Architect (the cyberintelligence behind the Matrix), and finds out that he (Neo) is the culmination of the 6th iteration of the program, that even his supposed choices have been allowed for and logically programmed to bring him to this exact point with only 2 possible choices remaining: lose the love of his life, but save just 23 of those outside the Matrix and start iteration #7 of the rebellion that keeps the program refining it's control, or sacrifice all 250,000 of those outside the Matrix to save himself and Trinity. He then chooses to choose "outside the box", leaving a cliffhanger of sorts (someday, I may get a chance to see the last part).

So how do the Matrix and the OP topic relate? Most of those here have taken the red pill and have seen through the illusion of "we will take care of you - look at all the choices you have - everything is under control and good". That was part 1. Now in part 2, though the illusion is now quite obvious (to most here), some still struggle in varying degrees with comprehending the probability of the improbable (and the impossible), and in figuring out which choices are the ones given and which can be created; that even given plain choices to those who see no other options, there will be times when A, B, or C does not happen, but V or Z does, and that changes everything for everyone. Season may be one of those things. A "natural disaster" may be compounding factor, but things are still least likely to play out as many assume. Why?

It's far easier to plan for TEOTW(as it now functions), if we generalize and simplify:
Those in the city are all fully dependent on resources they can not provide for themselves, and are (mostly) clueless. 
Those in the country can (mostly) provide for themselves.
Those who have preps will survive, and those who don't, won't.
I will be awake, aware, and fully prepared at all times to defend my family/preps/property when anyone (including former military snipers or zombie hordes) shows up looking for something to keep themselves alive at my expense.
It's also far simpler to ignore the "givens" or minor things like: 
The fact that society, regardless of location, is comprised of people of widely varying skill sets, talents, physical resources, and motivations.
That society may tend to act in a certain way when things are relatively stable, but can not be predictable when the wheels come off the bus.
Individuals will not always act as their peers, nor always in logical ways.
That even in hindsight, events rarely play out in the ways that would make the most sense to us in foresight.
The PtB did not get to where they are by putting the welfare of anyone else on par with their own.
Nothing in politics happens by accident (especially on a national or global level).
There are a lot of bugs that could conveniently 'just happen' to reduce the problem of discontent (and the gathering together), for whatever cause.
That the greatest physical resource anyone can have, is not always preps (beans, bullets, bandages and fuel), but a diversely talented and strongly interconnected community.
It's a lot harder to plan for the scenario you can't imagine happening than it is for the one you can.
It's a lot harder to build and nourish community than it is to get a ton of Honeyville and another 1000 rounds. 
It's a lot harder to study the subtleties of the Matrix Architect and watch all the forces in play as the program adapts to challenges than it is to plan from what used to work, but at least the latter is a start. And it isn't just a matter of "smarts".

I've met people without formal education that have more curiosity, common sense and gumption than many college grads (with a nod to some here and the late HillbillyBob). I personally know college grads that have had the common sense educated right out of them. I also know MA's and PhD's who homestead / small scale farm as a livelihood or are gathering and practicing the skills to do so. I know of people who raise chickens, rabbits and gardens in cities (of all sizes), and far too many sheeple merely occupying hunks of property in the sticks that grow lawns and flowers. And what of that huge gray area called the burbs, where some are in debt over their eyes, and others are pulling down 6, 7 or more figure incomes (and often running for public office to secure their benefits - do YOU have a police force (or an endless supply of Agent Smith's) at your disposal?)?

Jumping to a card analogy (because I'm tired, and I have a tune stuck in my head - read on), life itself is a form of a gamble. Most peo(shee)ple live their lives on what they perceive as the safest bet: everything continuing as it was or getting better, even if the house is robbing them blind, with increasing speed. The best gamblers get out of the big stakes, stay out of the other games as much and as long as possible (forerunner), watch the cards intently until they can better 'read' all the other players at the table, especially the house, and bet light only as they have to. They understand the game better than most, can change strategy and tactics at the drop of a card, and do so often (again, with a nod to some here).

As the old song goes: "You've got to know when to hold up, know when to fold up; know when to walk away, and know when to run." It's a lot harder to do that when most (or all) your chips are on what has been dealt you this round in a game that you shouldn't be playing, and as someone above indicated, sometimes it's better to fold and run as soon as it looks like someone else holds trump at the table you are at (and can take you out of the game, permanently). You stand to lose the most when you are only watching are the cards you think are important, especially when there is more than one deck in play.

I know I don't post much anymore, but that's partly because I'm watching the games more intently than ever, pulling out of the games I want no stake in, and attempting to place my bets as carefully as possible, because even with the dealers pulling more cards out of their sleeves, the house is running out of cards to deal. Those who are paying attention even a little, are getting ready for the 'call', and there will be a lot of very unhappy losers swarming the house when it happens. Standing alone and holding visible chips is a sure way to get whacked. Standing quietly with others as a small army is a good way to make sure you (and they) live to play another day.

It is abundantly clear to me that anyone who is building network/community (especially as much outside the system as possible - consider 4B's as examples: _arter, _ulion,_itcoin, _erkshares) is going to be further ahead than those who don't, and those who do so for the benefit of others rather than just self, will do more to alleviate the size and duration of the problem than any other prep one can undertake. The time to work on that is right now, because waiting (hoping) for a season to thin the herd, is missing the opportunity to pull some from the herd who can help build the network we need (see also: James Rawles).

Thanks to all who have endured my $29.96 thoughts, allowing for inflation (it used to be 2cents, but it will probably be even more tomorrow). :soap:


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## Guest (Oct 23, 2012)

Y'all dreaming if you think people will just sit there and die out complacently. They'll come to your house and eat you before they starve to death. Regardless of how much is written, and shown on movies about "I'd rather die than kill or eat a human" that's said by somebody sitting at a desk eating potato chips and drinking a milk shake. Once a person sees their family starving, the next door neighbors start to look mighty tasty. The more "civilized" ones will be the ones to get eaten. Better toughen up a bit. It's eat or be eaten at the end of the world.


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## MullersLaneFarm (Jul 23, 2004)

As Carla Emery would say, "No matter where you are; network, network, network."


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