# A major oil bust could ruin the economy



## Nevada (Sep 9, 2004)

This is the one issue that could throw the economy into a tailspin, and it could happen in the next 6 months.

http://money.cnn.com/2015/01/22/news/economy/oil-boomtown-layoffs/index.html

I think increased oil production has been the reason for recent favorable economic news, but all that ground could be lost in a major oil bust. It's been the only bright spot in the economy.


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## HDRider (Jul 21, 2011)

That is not what 0bama said.


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## Nevada (Sep 9, 2004)

HDRider said:


> That is not what 0bama said.


Obama knows. He's just putting on a happy face. Remember when we were told in late 2008 that the fundamentals of the economy were strong? Presidents always do that.


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## HDRider (Jul 21, 2011)

Nevada said:


> Obama knows. He's just putting on a happy face. Remember when we were told in late 2008 that the fundamentals of the economy were strong? Presidents always do that.


0bama does N O T lie.


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## Harry Chickpea (Dec 19, 2008)

Sorry, but the lower energy costs will boost enough other parts of the economy that there will be compensatory growth that creates a net gain. Oil boom and busts are otherwise local events.

Gas here is down to under $2 a gallon in general and the traffic on the roads has increased considerably, to the point that I am having to allocate an extra 15 minutes to get into Huntsville. There is pent-up consumerism that has people out in stores shopping.


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## MO_cows (Aug 14, 2010)

It isn't "the only bright spot". Guns and ammo have been in a boom since Obama got elected but it's not PC to talk about it. Agriculture is doing very well and that's the real base of the economy. The lower fuel prices are saving the air carriers billions, hopefully they will invest some of that windfall into updating their fleets and give the aeronautics industry a boost.


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## Evons hubby (Oct 3, 2005)

Yeppers, putting a couple hundred bucks a month back in the consumers pockets is going to devastate our economy. We all know they are going to hang on to that fuel savings for a rainy day taking billions out of the economy! :umno:


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## Nevada (Sep 9, 2004)

Yvonne's hubby said:


> Yeppers, putting a couple hundred bucks a month back in the consumers pockets is going to devastate our economy. We all know they are going to hang on to that fuel savings for a rainy day taking billions out of the economy! :umno:


Fuel cost savings is the positive flip side, but the layoffs and resulting unemployment will be severe. You're not alone on the idea that the oil price war will be a net positive (Peter Schiff agrees with you) but I'm not so confident.


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## Evons hubby (Oct 3, 2005)

Nevada said:


> Fuel cost savings is the positive flip side, but the layoffs and resulting unemployment will be severe. You're not alone on the idea that the oil price war will be a net positive (Peter Schiff agrees with you) but I'm not so confident.


Oil riggers that get laid off can easily change jobs with a thriving economy. I forsee millions of new job openings due to increased demand for consumer goods.


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## SkizzlePig (May 14, 2006)

Nevada said:


> Fuel cost savings is the positive flip side, but the layoffs and resulting unemployment will be severe. You're not alone on the idea that the oil price war will be a net positive (Peter Schiff agrees with you) but I'm not so confident.


Hey, Nevada ... is the suggestion that the oil price drastic and sustained drop is going to squeeze profits and lead to a lingering slowed economy and consumer spending? If that's the case, I guess I could see that reality.


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## Nevada (Sep 9, 2004)

Yvonne's hubby said:


> Oil riggers that get laid off can easily change jobs with a thriving economy. I forsee millions of new job openings due to increased demand for consumer goods.


My concern is that massive layoffs in the oil sector could slow demand for consumer goods. Consumer demand isn't all that hot as it is.


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## Nevada (Sep 9, 2004)

SkizzlePig said:


> Hey, Nevada ... is the suggestion that the oil price drastic and sustained drop is going to squeeze profits and lead to a lingering slowed economy and consumer spending? If that's the case, I guess I could see that reality.


No, my suggestion is that lower oil prices will result on bankrupt oil producers and massive layoffs in the oil sector. Consumer spending will be slowed because less people will be working.


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## Evons hubby (Oct 3, 2005)

Nevada said:


> My concern is that massive layoffs in the oil sector could slow demand for consumer goods. Consumer demand isn't all that hot as it is.


You overlook what drives demand.... cash in fist... which is going to increase drastically across the board. It was the outrageous fuel prices that cut demand for a lot of other consumer goods. The American shopper will now have hundreds more per month to spend driving demand to record highs. Its kinda like everyone getting a 20 percent pay raise.... yeah, they will spend it!


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## SkizzlePig (May 14, 2006)

Nevada said:


> No, my suggestion is that lower oil prices will result on bankrupt oil producers and massive layoffs in the oil sector. Consumer spending will be slowed because less people will be working.


Yep, yep ... I can see that. I never considered it before as I was flying down the Interstate in my Canyonero, but I see the potential.

Unfortunately, I think the Saudis are in the driver's seat on this one. I don't know if there's much we can do to affect change.


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## Sawmill Jim (Dec 5, 2008)

Harry Chickpea said:


> Sorry, but the lower energy costs will boost enough other parts of the economy that there will be compensatory growth that creates a net gain. Oil boom and busts are otherwise local events.
> 
> Gas here is down to under $2 a gallon in general and the traffic on the roads has increased considerably, to the point that I am having to allocate an extra 15 minutes to get into Huntsville. There is pent-up consumerism that has people out in stores shopping.


Hate to disagree with you Harry but it would take several large cities of people to make up the money in one boom town . Lots of folks are in debt up past their eyeballs .A little extra gas money is nothing compared to the support industry of the oil field . Just one Co lists 14,000 employees and they have thousands more that work on contract type jobs .Most all these jobs pay good dollars . 

Just all those jobs related to pipe making ,drilling chemical mix manufactures and truck related supply co's will slow down or stop . Just one boom town with all their trucks idling at the stop lights would burn more fuel than half Huntsville at full speed :hobbyhors 

Everyone should go see at least one boom town should they come back .Just put thousands of people in a little town over night and watch the show. I got a kick out of the line of cars coming out of Utah mile after mile going to the job sites , just those would been impossible to stand and count as they passed .

We stopped at a clothing supply store in Wyoming and it was crowded to the front door they sold all types fire resistant cloths required in the oil field .Bet those folks and their suppliers are in a hurt soon average cost of one pair of good work boots was $180.00 and I still have socks that were $20.00 a pair seven years ago


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## HDRider (Jul 21, 2011)

I am already up more than 6% on VLO in less than a week.


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## Harry Chickpea (Dec 19, 2008)

Jim, one of the fundamentals we see differently is the overall effect of energy (ANY energy) costs. The axiom I go by is that in the same regulatory environment low energy costs release money that is otherwise tied up.

A simple example is a family in the north existing at poverty level. There is no way that they can afford buying electricity or oil or gas for the survival need of home heating. Instead, their personal energy goes into chopping and burning wood. That takes X hours per week out of their lives. Reduce the cost of fuel, and at a certain point it makes more sense for one or more of them to go outside the home and work at a job to buy fuel.

From a business point of view, energy costs eat into capital that could be used elsewhere. Theatres have high energy costs. Heating a dozen barn sized auditoriums to a temperature that will be comfortable for audiences takes some serious energy. Cut that energy cost in half and suddenly there is investment money available to build another theatre, or pay for deferred maintenance. Since customers have more spendable income, there are more customers.

Lower energy costs also acts as an incentive to companies that have migrated to other countries to come back to the U.S. The bottom line in business looks at ALL costs. If energy costs are 30% of real costs, employees are another 30%, and materials make up the third 30%, a 50% cut in one of those is HUGE.

Money spent in oil and energy is money for depleting resources. Money spent in manufacturing goods is spent in augmenting capabilities, creating physical objects, and adding to general wealth. If I spend $300 on gas, that gas and money are gone once it is burned up. If I spend that same $300 on a grain mill, that mill will continue to save me money on flour for as long as I live, allowing me MORE free money to put into the economy.

If the U.S. economy was based only upon oil and gas and foreign wars, loss of the jobs in oil and gas would be tragic for the economy. Unlike Russia, we still have enough remnants of diversity that our economy will shift and survive. A lessening of dependence on that one part of the economy is highly beneficial towards our long term survival.

Energy cost is in essence a tax. It is one of the few taxes that can be reduced.


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## wy_white_wolf (Oct 14, 2004)

20,000 layoffs expect by June in North Dakota.

http://money.cnn.com/2015/01/22/news/economy/oil-boomtown-layoffs/

I'd expect at least that many in Wyoming too. Then add in Okalhoma, Texas and all the other states. I don't see the lower gas prices stimulating that much, that fast.

I expect in Casper to happen just about what happened in the early 80's. Population dropped 25% in a year. Home values dropped over 50%. It was worse then than when the real estate bubble burst.

WWW


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## Nevada (Sep 9, 2004)

wy_white_wolf said:


> I expect in Casper to happen just about what happened in the early 80's. Population dropped 25% in a year. Home values dropped over 50%. It was worse then than when the real estate bubble burst.


That's what I expect also.

The really surprising thing about the clip in post #1 is the attitude of the local retailers. The people in the oil business are openly shaken about what's to come, while local retailers and the mayor don't seem to get it. They seem to think business is good and will stay good, and the mayor says those 20,000 people will find jobs. It's hard to believe they could be that clueless.


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## Sawmill Jim (Dec 5, 2008)

Nevada said:


> That's what I expect also.
> 
> The really surprising thing about the clip in post #1 is the attitude of the local retailers. The people in the oil business are openly shaken about what's to come, while local retailers and the mayor don't seem to get it. They seem to think business is good and will stay good, and the mayor says those 20,000 people will find jobs. It's hard to believe they could be that clueless.


Yea we don't agree on much but this we do .:bow:

I remember when fuel started up the grocery stores add so much to their prices blaming it on delivery costs .Has anyone seen the reverse of that trend ?

Harry Only in America will people go to the theater to see a high dollar show while the Sheriff sits their furniture on the curb for not paying their rent .

Biggest of my oil field money went to prior debt so not much for stimulating today's economy :hobbyhors


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## Ozarks Tom (May 27, 2011)

The jobs IN the oil fields are just the tip of the iceberg. I don't know how you'd measure it, but manufacturing and support type jobs far away from the drilling are going to suffer in higher numbers than the field.

Jobs aren't my biggest concern when it comes to oil prices, derivatives based on oil futures are going to be in big trouble. "Lucky" for the big derivative holders the cromnibus bill just passed moves their losses onto the FDIC's back.

Then look at Russia, and their one dimensional economy. What takes the people's minds off a lousy economy? War.


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## arabian knight (Dec 19, 2005)

Yes this has long reaching affect even back here in WI. I live 16 miles from the headquarters. 
*Menards hiring local workers to commute weekly to North Dakota store*


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## Vahomesteaders (Jun 4, 2014)

Oil is only low because the Arabs are making it that way on purpose. They can stick a rod in the ground 10 feet and hit oil. We have to spend tons of time and money to get ours. They are pumping out the oil to dive prices down to put Texas oil drillers and others out of business. Then they will shut it off. I read abs economist who said last week of it drops 10 dollars more a barrel it week devastate global economies because many countries budget based on oil prices and pay it up front for the year to the producers. With no hope of refunds. So they spend triple or more the amount it actually cost and don't make it back on local and national sales so they go bankrupt. So while we enjoy great low prices the rest of the With may be getting ready to burn. Russia is hit hard by this oil boom and they said they consider it an act of war.


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## Guest (Jan 23, 2015)

My dad works in North Dakota as a truck driver for one of the companies in the Oil Field..he called me today to say they are laying off all the workers..trucks are being stacked and closing up..

My dad moved there (he still has his property here) because there was no work here in my home state of NY..

OT>>My youngest brother just got layed off today from his Union job here in NY......My oldest son has worked for a restaurant for the past 4-yrs and for the first time since working there he has been told for the past few weeks not to come in cause they have no business.


It's not looking good for my family right now.


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## HDRider (Jul 21, 2011)

Vahomesteaders said:


> *Oil is only low because the arabs are making it that way on purpose.* They can stick a rod in the ground 10 feet and hit oil. We have to spend tons of time and money to get ours. They are pumping out the oil to dive prices down to put Texas oil drillers and others out of business. Then they will shut it off. I read abs economist who said last week of it drops 10 dollars more a barrel it week devastate global economies because many countries budget based on oil prices and pay it up front for the year to the producers. With no hope of refunds. So they spend triple or more the amount it actually cost and don't make it back on local and national sales so they go bankrupt. So while we enjoy great low prices the rest of the With may be getting ready to burn. Russia is hit hard by this oil boom and they said they consider it an act of war.




I'd suggest there is another reason. It is to punish Putin. It has devastated the Russian economy.



You can bet in some back room, America told Saudi Arabia, " Drill baby, drill."


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## Nevada (Sep 9, 2004)

HDRider said:


> I'd suggest there is another reason. It is to punish Putin. It has devastated the Russian economy.
> 
> You can bet in some back room, America told Saudi Arabia, " Drill baby, drill."


I doubt it. I think Russia losing their shirt on low oil prices was an unintended consequence. The objective is for Saudi to preserve their market share no matter what price.


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## Sawmill Jim (Dec 5, 2008)

At least Russia has a surplus in their treasury unlike us with 18 T in the hole


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## BlackFeather (Jun 17, 2014)

Some where I heard 87% of all the NEW oil hitting the market is from fracking, 
fracking is one of the most expensive ways to get oil, so who is hurt by low oil prices? Who makes out? China is now buying up cheap oil and storing it. Every month the Saudis and the Chinese get together for a meeting. I'm not sure the Saudis are on our side anymore. The Saudis don't like Iran and Russia supports Iran, so how many problems are they solving at once here?


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## clovis (May 13, 2002)

I can't foretell the future for the economy as a whole, but for us, low fuel prices have had an immediate impact on our family.

We are active as selling vendors in the antique mall and flea market business, and our our sales are up dramatically since gas prices have fallen. The economy was good for us until about 2011, and after that, it can be a real struggle. 

For many years, I have blamed gas prices. As the price at the pump increases, our sales start to slow. When they edge up past 3.50, we really start seeing a difference.

When gas started to drop, I noticed an almost immediate increase in our retail sales. People that are walking the antique malls and flea markets are happier, and there are more of them. A year ago, a weekday might be dead for us...but this year, the parking lots are full almost every day of the week, and the weekends are crazy.

I still believe that many consumers are reeling from several years of high oil costs. If a consumer bought a house in 2006 and has a giant payment, high gas and grocery costs, not to mention all the things that have soared in price, like tires, haven't had much disposable money to throw around in the past 5 years. In short, I think that many consumers are overextended, and $4 gas has put a screeching halt to their spending. 

For us, we are traveling much more, and spending more too. Over the past month, we've traveled in the area significantly more that we did at $4 gas. We are frugal and not big spenders, but it all adds up, right?


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## Harry Chickpea (Dec 19, 2008)

The recession that started around 2007 was from a combination of mortgage defaults, bank problems, and an INCREASE in gas prices. I remember that when I started our move out of Florida gas was just going up. Within a couple of years we had to cut driving to a bare minimum.


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## Aintlifegrand (Jun 3, 2005)

Nevada said:


> Fuel cost savings is the positive flip side, but the layoffs and resulting unemployment will be severe. You're not alone on the idea that the oil price war will be a net positive (Peter Schiff agrees with you) but I'm not so confident.


It quite posssibly is the end...basically since I have been coming here..you and I have never agreed on anything..yet on this we are in total agreement


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## Sawmill Jim (Dec 5, 2008)

BlackFeather said:


> Some where I heard 87% of all the NEW oil hitting the market is from fracking,
> fracking is one of the most expensive ways to get oil, so who is hurt by low oil prices? Who makes out? China is now buying up cheap oil and storing it. Every month the Saudis and the Chinese get together for a meeting. I'm not sure the Saudis are on our side anymore. The Saudis don't like Iran and Russia supports Iran, so how many problems are they solving at once here?


Where did you get that idea on fracking ? Not many out side of the oil patch knew about the process till some grennie librial decided it caused every thing from tornadoes to hemorrhoids and it got us Reelfoot Lake too . 
:hobbyhors
Standard Disclaimer Follows 

Every time fracking is brought up on these forums there is always one or more posters jump in and post till the subject is run it's course then they disappear never to be seen again .So I will agree in advance most all fracking is done with toxic waste and causes all the above ills . 

Me and another guy rebuilt and ran a frack heater the harshest thing we heated was "dihydrogen monoxide" and that stuff can kill you in many ways .


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## arabian knight (Dec 19, 2005)

Ya true as fracing has been going on for the last 60 years or so, it is NOT a new idea at all.~!
Sideways hydraulic drilling is, but not fracing.

Same thing goes for Sand mining. That has been going on for years and years as well, till some green folks got the idea that also causing everything from "tornados to hemorrhoids". WOW that was a good one.~! Like that. 
There is a Sand Mine not 50 miles from me that has been mining sand since the 70's~! And not once have they been on the news with protesters and such nonsense. Just a good company that has reclaimed the land you can't even tell where they have been after a few years have passed.


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## mmoetc (Oct 9, 2012)

Harry Chickpea said:


> The recession that started around 2007 was from a combination of mortgage defaults, bank problems, and an INCREASE in gas prices. I remember that when I started our move out of Florida gas was just going up. Within a couple of years we had to cut driving to a bare minimum.


Around here the impact of higher gas prices was felt after the Katrina spike. Much of the local economy was/is dependent on the money brought in by the folks who own seasonal cabins and lakeside property. Post Katrina, when gas rose precipitously and never really fell back to previous levels people's habits changed. Rather than driving up every weekend trips fell to every other weekend or once a month. Rather than going out to eat more meals were cooked at the cabin. More gas money in the SUV, ski boat, 4 wheeler, etc, meant less money for local restaurants, bars and storefronts. Many are gone never to return. 

For a large section of the economy that $20 bill that was filling the gas tank last year will now be spent on something else. It probably should be saved for better times, but it won't. Of course, those same saving habits should have been employed by those working and investing in the oil patch which had always been boom and bust.


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## Glade Runner (Aug 1, 2013)

BlackFeather said:


> Some where I heard 87% of all the NEW oil hitting the market is from fracking,
> fracking is one of the most expensive ways to get oil, so who is hurt by low oil prices? Who makes out? China is now buying up cheap oil and storing it. Every month the Saudis and the Chinese get together for a meeting. I'm not sure the Saudis are on our side anymore. The Saudis don't like Iran and Russia supports Iran, so how many problems are they solving at once here?


The other issue associated with fracking and shale oil is the very rapid decline curve. There will be a fairly dramatic reduction in production from shale over the next two years if there is little new drilling and fracking. The current over supply is going to disappear rapidly. The ENI guy is probably right when he says that if many of the currently planned projects get shut down we'll be looking at $200 a barrel oil in the not too distant future. 

For once I have to pretty much agree with Nevada, a lowering of the price of hydrocarbons is one thing, the bottom dropping out is another thing entirely.


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## mmoetc (Oct 9, 2012)

Glade Runner said:


> The other issue associated with fracking and shale oil is the very rapid decline curve. There will be a fairly dramatic reduction in production from shale over the next two years if there is little new drilling and fracking. The current over supply is going to disappear rapidly. The ENI guy is probably right when he says that if many of the currently planned projects get shut down we'll be looking at $200 a barrel oil in the not too distant future.
> 
> For once I have to pretty much agree with Nevada, a lowering of the price of hydrocarbons is one thing, the bottom dropping out is another thing entirely.


At which point those who have deep pockets who bought up leases and equipment on the cheap from those who are underfunded will jump back in with a vengeance. Prices will roller coaster, fortunes will be made and lost and made again and American consumers will do what we always do, complain and try to sell off that full sized pick up or SUV we bought when gas was cheap.


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## Oxankle (Jun 20, 2003)

Harry Chickpea: My apologies, but you might be writing screed for the pretender.\\

The simple fact is that the Saudis action has disrupted the production of oil from our oil shale beds in the US. Those companies that have invested heavily in that effort are seeing their work go for nothing. Thousands of people will be laid off. The cities where those people live and work have begun building new homes, apartments, schools, hospitals--all the infrastructure of cities. Now there will be no way to pay for this and the people now living in those cities and working in the oil fields will have to leave. Beeville, Texas? Williston Montana? What is there to do there once the oil companies shut down? 

I fear that Nevada is correct. If the Saudis hold oil prices below $90 per barrel for long the oil industry will suffer, and we along with it. 

Ox


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## bowdonkey (Oct 6, 2007)

A low oil price will only have a positive effect on the economy. Those spoiled oil workers and oil conglomerates have never cared if I was layed off. So they can just cry me a river.


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## arabian knight (Dec 19, 2005)

It is all the trickle down folks that will also get HURT not just the oil workers. One must think Out Of The Box and Out Of The Area as well.


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## poppy (Feb 21, 2008)

Like everything else in the economy, there will be winners and losers. If your life has no connection to employment in the oil business, you come out very good. The 20 billion drop in oil prices will still go into the economy in other places. In the long run for the economy it is a wash.


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## Nevada (Sep 9, 2004)

poppy said:


> Like everything else in the economy, there will be winners and losers. If your life has no connection to employment in the oil business, you come out very good. The 20 billion drop in oil prices will still go into the economy in other places. In the long run for the economy it is a wash.


That brings up an interesting point. We now seem to be in a position to rid ourselves of dependence on middle eastern oil. Our oil is more expensive to produce than Saudi oil, but if we use domestic oil every dollar we spend on fuel will stay in America.

But is America ready to spend twice as much on fuel to have that kind of independence? Would it really be a good thing for America, or are we better off with affordable gasoline?


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## wr (Aug 10, 2003)

bowdonkey said:


> A low oil price will only have a positive effect on the economy. Those spoiled oil workers and oil conglomerates have never cared if I was layed off. So they can just cry me a river.



I disagree. When an huge sector gets laid off, they also stop investing in the economy, which in turn results in more layoffs. 

A lot of oilfield workers buy houses, clothing, vehicles, groceries as well as work away from home. If a remote drilling rig is put out of business, so will the cooks, cleaning staff and the trucking company that moves them. 

In an area that is busy, those crews are paying the wages of hotel staff, waitresses, cooks and dishwashers. 

It may not hurt your feelings when an oilfield worker is unemployed but do you feel the same about the other industries? No oilfield work results in less trucks sold, is it also okay that the auto industry gets slammed again?


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## Nevada (Sep 9, 2004)

wr said:


> It may not hurt your feelings when an oilfield worker is unemployed but do you feel the same about the other industries? No oilfield work results in less trucks sold, is it also okay that the auto industry gets slammed again?


It's generally estimated that fore each industrial job created there are three service sector jobs created. The fallout will be huge.


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## mmoetc (Oct 9, 2012)

Ask ten economists what the effect on jobs low oil prices will have and you'll get at least eleven answers from great to catastrophic. Ask those who have been in the industry long enough and they'll say what's new? http://money.cnn.com/2015/01/15/investing/oil-prices-texas-jobs/index.html

So the question for you doom and gloomers is what do you think should be done?


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## Sawmill Jim (Dec 5, 2008)

mmoetc said:


> Ask ten economists what the effect on jobs low oil prices will have and you'll get at least eleven answers from great to catastrophic. Ask those who have been in the industry long enough and they'll say what's new? http://money.cnn.com/2015/01/15/investing/oil-prices-texas-jobs/index.html
> 
> So the question for you doom and gloomers is what do you think should be done?


What oil field workers have always done go with the flow :hobbyhors
I know some those guys made $5,000 a week the smart ones have a good stash to leave town on . There will be another boom a coming ,just may be slow getting here . Now the pipe factory workers may be in a sweat too. Some of the old guys have seen this before .Portable welder Co's sales will be shot too and all those related suppliers .Not many have even a hint of what the oil field puts in the economy .Nevada even get it but he has seen it before too .:whistlin:


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## Nevada (Sep 9, 2004)

mmoetc said:


> Ask ten economists what the effect on jobs low oil prices will have and you'll get at least eleven answers from great to catastrophic. Ask those who have been in the industry long enough and they'll say what's new? http://money.cnn.com/2015/01/15/investing/oil-prices-texas-jobs/index.html
> 
> So the question for you doom and gloomers is what do you think should be done?


I don't think anything should be done. The oil industry will take a hard hit and so will the economy. On the upside, lower oil prices will help some businesses. I think we'll just have to let market conditions do what they'll do.

So you see, "drill baby drill" was a fun sound byte but didn't take us far. It just started a price war we can't win.

I say buy silver.


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## mmoetc (Oct 9, 2012)

Nevada said:


> I don't think anything should be done. The oil industry will take a hard hit and so will the economy. On the upside, lower oil prices will help some businesses. I think we'll just have to let market conditions do what they'll do.
> 
> So you see, "drill baby drill" was a fun sound byte but didn't take us far. It just started a price war we can't win.
> 
> I say buy silver.


You always say buy silver.

Every day that oil prices stay low we win. The longer they stay low the less drag on the overall economy. Farmers should have lower fuel bills for planting, tillage and harvesting. Good for them. Transportation costs for every industry will be less. Good for them. Every consumer good that gets to a store will have less cost associated with it. Price savings or increased profits. Good for somebody. Airlines- lower fuel prices good. Travel and tourism- less money in gas tanks more in stores, restaurants, hotels..... That oil in the ground isn't going anywhere. It will be there when prices go back up. Let the Saudis sell us their cheap oil for as long as they want.

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=12451. Even if every one of those 168,000 jobs created disappeared they wouldn't create much of a blip in the 100 million or so employed in this country.


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## nchobbyfarm (Apr 10, 2011)

Nevada said:


> So you see, "drill baby drill" was a fun sound byte but didn't take us far. It just started a price war we can't win..


Are you kidding? Please tell me you are!

Drill baby drill did exactly what conservatives said it would and exactly opposite what the majority of our liberals friends said would happen.

1- it lowered the cost of gas to below $2. I remember lots of folks poking fun at Newt for saying it would get gas to $2.50. And it surpassed his prediction but those guys continually said it would not help.

2- it cut our dependence on foreign oil which finally showed the Saudis that they better do something or learn to eat sand.

Even if they stop drilling here, we can always crank it back up later if the prices rise.

But to answer your question in another post, YES, we should pay double to use our own oil. It would be a win-win. But we won't, we want our cheap gas along with our cheap Chinese made crap at Wallyworld. To bad!


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## arabian knight (Dec 19, 2005)

Yes it is the ME that is KEEPING the oil down and it is NOT this Drill Baby Drill. This is a hard fall in price and the ME is just keeping pumping away instead of cutting back to keep a good price for all.


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## clovis (May 13, 2002)

I respectfully disagree that cheap oil will destroy our economy.

I am jaded enough to question just about every headline and news story that we are told. I am old enough, and seen enough, to know that someone out there is constantly spinning a story to us.

Every time I hear some talking head spewing the same "cheap oil is bad and we _need_ to pay more" I sit and wonder:

A. This guy is a mouthpiece for the oil lobby
B. This guy works for a hedge fund
C. This guy works for a lobby group that wants something, like the Keystone pipeline
D. This guy works for a commodity brokerage firm who is going to make a killing on oil when it rebounds.
E. This guy works for some type of trade group or industry that is making a killing on $100 oil and drilling here in the US

Mark my words...you heard it here first: Whoever is pushing the "cheap oil is bad for us" mantra is getting paid by someone, and whoever is behind them, has an agenda and stands to reap big money on it.

Simply stated: If you get enough people believing something, it will eventually be understood as the truth.


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## clovis (May 13, 2002)

BTW, and FWIW, our sales at the retail level are simply off the charts.

We sell items in an indoor flea market and two antique malls.

People are getting out of the house more because of cheap gas, and they are spending more too. 

I've been doing this long enough to realize that you can never second guess the consumer. Today, they buy one item like mad, and tomorrow or next week, you can't give that item away. 

Maybe we are just blessed. Or lucky. Or maybe it was hard work, and all the stars and all of the moons lined up just right. Maybe it is the better weather than is expected for our area. Or maybe, Aunt June gave an extra $20 in someone's birthday card, and they chose to spend it with us.

No matter what is the reason, I do know this: When gas prices started falling, our sales SKYROCKETED.

Today, our sales were spectacular. You would have thought that it was 2003 again. When I saw our sales for today after looking online, it was so much easier to spend $45 at a department store tonight for my DD's and wife's wardrobe. It was easier to stock up on a Coke deal at another store. It was easier to buy a research book on ebay that I have wanted. This past week, it was easier to give a little more to a missionary guy that we support. And tomorrow, I might just load the family up in the car, and go for a long drive. If we see an ice cream shop, or a candy store somewhere, it will be easier to stop and have some fun. 

Gas at $2.10 a gallon? Yeah, it is fun living again. At $4 a gallon...we still do some of those things, but all of them hurt!


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## Sawmill Jim (Dec 5, 2008)

Well clovis I don't get payed by anyone for anything . But I know how many tons of money goes threw a oil field . I am sure we here have some new $20.00 and $40.00 dollar new million heirs too . Some get it they just naturally just got to spend it just ride that horse till he brakes a leg :hobbyhors

Good for you that they are spending it with you and you are passing it on. Maybe those with loads new found cash won't wake up like a drunk wondering why they spent all their cash


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## arabian knight (Dec 19, 2005)

People are forgetting this is not about JUST cheap oil. 
It is about all the people that will get laid OFF and all the ripple effects up and down the line. Cheap oil in and of itself is good.
BUT NOT THIS WAY at the expense of so many jobs~! That is going to be hard on the economy of this country.


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## clovis (May 13, 2002)

arabian knight said:


> People are forgetting this is not about JUST cheap oil.
> It is about all the people that will get laid OFF and all the ripple effects up and down the line. Cheap oil in and of itself is good.
> BUT NOT THIS WAY at the expense of so many jobs~! That is going to be hard on the economy of this country.


Maybe I fall into the "it's not in my backyard" mentality about the oil bust that might occur soon. I would have to drive at least an hour to find an oil well, and when I did, it would be a small one that might produce one barrel every three days, if that. I've never lived or worked around the oil industry, in any capacity.

The auto industry has been king in our area, and when the economy was melting down, it was extremely painful, on a personal level, to hear people on HT say "let them burn." 

I don't want any local economy "to burn." I worry for those families who are losing major sources of income, and I'm not just talking about the oil jobs. I'm worried for the guy who owns the Dairy Barn in the boom town, and the woman who is going to get laid off from her good job at the local hardware store.


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## clovis (May 13, 2002)

Sawmill Jim said:


> Well clovis I don't get payed by anyone for anything . But I know how many tons of money goes threw a oil field . I am sure we here have some new $20.00 and $40.00 dollar new million heirs too . Some get it they just naturally just got to spend it just ride that horse till he brakes a leg :hobbyhors
> 
> Good for you that they are spending it with you and you are passing it on. Maybe those with loads new found cash won't wake up like a drunk wondering why they spent all their cash


No worries about that...if you knew how frugal I am in real life...

I hate to admit that all of our purchases came from the clearance rack, and we used a coupon on top of that. 

We were really blessed to find some $55 Levis for my growing DD for $16. In the past week, she has outgrown all of her pants, so we went shopping 'to get us by' until we could find a better sale, and were able to find 4 pair in nice quality on the cheap.


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## AmericanStand (Jul 29, 2014)

Anybody know what the total retail sales of petroleum products were in the USA last year?
If you knock 1/3 off that how much does THAT put in the economy?


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## watcher (Sep 4, 2006)

Nevada said:


> This is the one issue that could throw the economy into a tailspin, and it could happen in the next 6 months.
> 
> http://money.cnn.com/2015/01/22/news/economy/oil-boomtown-layoffs/index.html
> 
> I think increased oil production has been the reason for recent favorable economic news, but all that ground could be lost in a major oil bust. It's been the only bright spot in the economy.


Wait a minute here. Haven't you been crowing about how great the economy has been doing over all? Increased house sales, lower unemployment numbers and the like?

As you know we have gone through this before. Oil prices go up and it makes economic sense to go after oil that takes more work to get. Oil prices go down and it doesn't. 

Personally I think we should leave all the oil we can in the ground in the US and use foreign oil until its gone. Then we still have our's in reserve. But hey we, currently, live in a semi free market, semi-capitalist nation so if people can make money drilling here they will.


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## watcher (Sep 4, 2006)

clovis said:


> No worries about that...if you knew how frugal I am in real life...
> 
> I hate to admit that all of our purchases came from the clearance rack, and we used a coupon on top of that.
> 
> We were really blessed to find some $55 Levis for my growing DD for $16. In the past week, she has outgrown all of her pants, so we went shopping 'to get us by' until we could find a better sale, and were able to find 4 pair in nice quality on the cheap.


Try Goodwill. You can find all kinds of clothes for cheap. Found a pair of Tommy Hilfiger jeans with the price tag still on them, paid $4.99. 

Long ago the DD came home with bags and bags of clothes saying she had her school clothes shopping all done and spent less than most girls her age do on an outfit or two.

The wife buys 95% of her clothes there or other thrift stores (she refused to buy socks, shoes and undies second hand). She huffs when the jeans she finds are not the daily half price color and she has to pay $5 instead of $2.50 a pair.


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## Nevada (Sep 9, 2004)

watcher said:


> Personally I think we should leave all the oil we can in the ground in the US and use foreign oil until its gone. Then we still have our's in reserve.


In a few decades there will be no market for crude oil. Saudis see the same thing, so they're selling all they can while oil still has value.


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## Nevada (Sep 9, 2004)

watcher said:


> Wait a minute here. Haven't you been crowing about how great the economy has been doing over all? Increased house sales, lower unemployment numbers and the like?


No. I'm the guy who keeps saying we have 3 to 4 more years of recession to face.


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## mmoetc (Oct 9, 2012)

Nevada said:


> No. I'm the guy who keeps saying we have 3 to 4 more years of recession to face.


And low oil prices and increased consumer spending on other things will blow a big hole in that theory. It might drive up that demand for silver you keep telling is coming so good news for you right? The sooner demand returns the sooner those uses you say will cause silver to increase 30 fold magically appear. Oil and it's related jobs are a small fraction of the 140,000,000 people employed in the US.


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## Nevada (Sep 9, 2004)

mmoetc said:


> And low oil prices and increased consumer spending on other things will blow a big hole in that theory. It might drive up that demand for silver you keep telling is coming so good news for you right? The sooner demand returns the sooner those uses you say will cause silver to increase 30 fold magically appear. Oil and it's related jobs are a small fraction of the 140,000,000 people employed in the US.


I hope you're correct. I really do.


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## clovis (May 13, 2002)

watcher said:


> Try Goodwill. You can find all kinds of clothes for cheap. Found a pair of Tommy Hilfiger jeans with the price tag still on them, paid $4.99.
> 
> Long ago the DD came home with bags and bags of clothes saying she had her school clothes shopping all done and spent less than most girls her age do on an outfit or two.
> 
> The wife buys 95% of her clothes there or other thrift stores (she refused to buy socks, shoes and undies second hand). She huffs when the jeans she finds are not the daily half price color and she has to pay $5 instead of $2.50 a pair.


Generally speaking, we haven't had much luck at regular GW stores. 

They started marking their little kids jeans at $7.99, no matter the condition. I could buy band new jeans for $10 to $12 on sale, and get the style and colors we wanted. 

We did score one time at GW, right after another growth spurt. My wife found two pair of new jeans like I mentioned above. Both pair cost us like $4.50 total on Green Dot Wednesday, or something. It saved us on cost, plus a 20 minute drive to the mall!!!!

We have scored some pretty good stuff at GW outlet though...it is one of our favorite places to shop!

How is that for thread drift????????


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## watcher (Sep 4, 2006)

Nevada said:


> In a few decades there will be no market for crude oil. Saudis see the same thing, so they're selling all they can while oil still has value.


I don't keep up with them, what are they investing in to pay the bills in the future?

But I don't see it happening that soon. There is nothing even on the horizon which can replace it as a fuel. If we could work the bugs out fusion maybe. 

I don't see there being enough resources to switch to any of the 'future' energy sources. Electric whatevers mean more copper, lithium, nickle, silver and the like. 

There's the fact our electric grid is having problems meeting demand today if you add several million electric cars and their chargers to it and really bad things will happen. That means we are going to have to build more power plants, more power lines plus the charging stations and chargers. All of which will demand more resources.

And there's the eco point. Oil may be bad but mining and refining all those materials will make the eco nuts go apoplectic.

Finally oil, as you know, is used for a LOT more than fuel. Sure some of its uses can be done with something else, IIRC plastics can use veggie oil, but at what cost in money and resources?


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## Nevada (Sep 9, 2004)

watcher said:


> I don't keep up with them, what are they investing in to pay the bills in the future?


I don't know if it will pay the bills in the future but they have investments all over the world, particularly in Europe & North America.


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## Shine (Feb 19, 2011)

Sunshine Thrift stores and the Kidney foundation here have new clothes for really cheap prices - Sundays 1/2 price for seniors, once a month 1/2 all clothes for everyone...


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## Jena (Aug 13, 2003)

Well for what it's worth, I'm sitting on a rig right now. We ought to TD this well in the morning, then move 100 feet to do the next. We have a new location waiting for us and I'm pretty sure we are going to go drill those wells too, but who knows. It's the oil field. No one knows what's going to happen.

My company has not laid anyone off. There's a guy sleeping on the couch in my shack just so they can keep him busy. His rig got stacked. He's making half of what I do, but he still has a job.

The drilling company has laid off some guys. They laid off one from our crew, but he was a whiner and complainer that they wanted to get rid of anyways. They've bumped some guys around...the pusher had to go back to drilling, driller went back to derrick, etc.

I'm not allowed to take people to lunch anymore and charge it on my company card. They aren't going to let me work over....after 15 days out, my day rate increases by 50%.

So they are trying to save expenses, but plan to keep on drilling. I've got enough oil on the shakers to tell me that this is probably going to be a good well.

Most of they guys out here have seen all this before. Some of the young ones are sort of shocked but that is mostly being young enough to not have learned that money comes and money goes.

I'm not worried.


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## unregistered353870 (Jan 16, 2013)

Nevada said:


> In a few decades there will be no market for crude oil. Saudis see the same thing, so they're selling all they can while oil still has value.


I wish I was younger so I could offer a bet against that prediction.


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## clovis (May 13, 2002)

I think we will see a big change in the demand for oil eventually.

The electric and hybrid cars have improved dramatically over time. Most, if not all, of the big players in the car market have hybrids in their line-up. We are no longer in a "I wish" mentality about electric and hybrid cars. They are here, and in time, the quality will improve and the prices will drop.

Personally, I think that the hybrids will eventually take over the market. I believe that will create a dynamic shift in the demand for oil. I think we will eventually use far less oil and gas, but the price will skyrocket.

All of the above is what I see in my crystal ball. What I can't see is how far off it is. Is it going to be 10 years, or 40?


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## arabian knight (Dec 19, 2005)

clovis said:


> All of the above is what I see in my crystal ball. What I can't see is how far off it is. Is it going to be 10 years, *or 40*?


Not if THIS trend keeps up. LOL It may go way out 100 YEARS from now MAYBE just maybe.
Less then 1% of the cars in the US make up this hyped up yuppie stuff.
And now this is a good trent against these so called greenie weenie cars.
Hybrids like the Toyota Prius were way down in 2014 -- the Prius was down 12 percent compared to 2013. I love it. LOL


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## Vahomesteaders (Jun 4, 2014)

clovis said:


> I think we will see a big change in the demand for oil eventually.
> 
> The electric and hybrid cars have improved dramatically over time. Most, if not all, of the big players in the car market have hybrids in their line-up. We are no longer in a "I wish" mentality about electric and hybrid cars. They are here, and in time, the quality will improve and the prices will drop.
> 
> ...


I don't think electric will ever take over. For several reasons. One, over half the country couldn't afford a new car electric or not. Lots of low income people who would pretty have to be given a car. Two, the cost of the batteries alone and the amount of resources that go into them is crazy. Three they will never in my life time be able to build a reliable big rig or 4x4 truck, tractor, loader farm equipment etc.. That is needed for everyday life on farms, job sites and such. It just isn't going happen. Those tires and other parts also rely on oil to be made. Just not possible to get rid of.


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## clovis (May 13, 2002)

Vahomesteaders said:


> I don't think electric will ever take over. For several reasons. One, over half the country couldn't afford a new car electric or not. Lots of low income people who would pretty have to be given a car. Two, the cost of the batteries alone and the amount of resources that go into them is crazy. Three they will never in my life time be able to build a reliable big rig or 4x4 truck, tractor, loader farm equipment etc.. That is needed for everyday life on farms, job sites and such. It just isn't going happen. Those tires and other parts also rely on oil to be made. Just not possible to get rid of.


You bring up some good points, but I respectfully disagree.

I believe that we will be burning petroleum far into the future. I just think that we will be using far less of it than we are now, at least in terms of MPG.

The locomotives that you see pulling trains are diesel-electrics. They've been building those since the 1940's, and even into the 1930's, IIRC. At what point will the manufacturers start using that technology for 18 wheelers and the common Chevy pick up truck?

You are right about the cost of cars, especially electrics. Hybrids are becoming more cost effective. It isn't going to happen overnight, or even in the next 5 years. It is coming though, and as the prices drop for new electric cars and for hybrids, like the Chevy Volt, they will find a place in the market.

I'd buy a Chevy Volt as my next car in a heartbeat if they weren't so expensive. I don't think that $2 gas will last very long. Maybe I should start shopping now for a really nice used one, as people sell off the gas savers and start buying SUV's again. 

One last thought: I think that hybrids will rule the market eventually, long before electrics take over. There simply isn't the range on electrics that people want and need, unless they can add a gas powered charger that generates enough electric to power the car.


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## AmericanStand (Jul 29, 2014)

Actually I expect to see the first electric big rigs appear in the LA basin very soon. they upgraded the requirements for semi's operating from the ports not long ago.

Everyone said that couldn't happen because port trucks are traditionally the cheapest road junk there is.
A few regulations and some incentives and BOOM that all changed !

Port trucks Idle a LOT. Trucks from the ports of LA operate mostly in the LA basin. Ca is a 55 mph state.With those operating conditions A electric truck starts to be practical , add in on highway recharging and they look positively sweet!


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## watcher (Sep 4, 2006)

clovis said:


> I think we will see a big change in the demand for oil eventually.
> 
> The electric and hybrid cars have improved dramatically over time. Most, if not all, of the big players in the car market have hybrids in their line-up. We are no longer in a "I wish" mentality about electric and hybrid cars. They are here, and in time, the quality will improve and the prices will drop.
> 
> ...


What makes you think this way?


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## mmoetc (Oct 9, 2012)

There were a lot of people a century ago who were sure the horseless carriage was just a fad. Too expensive, too noisy, too unreliable. I look at the rise of things like ride sharing services and community cars and realize that the younger generations look at cars in a different way than those of my and my parents generations. Many people's daily commutes are perfectly suited to electric vehicles and as they become more common and less expensive many will migrate that way. Easy enough to rent a larger vehicle when neccessary or if longer range is needed. We occasionally do it now for weekend road trips. $20 a day and no extra miles or wear and tear on our daily drivers. Technology and progress seldom rest and economics soon follow.


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## where I want to (Oct 28, 2008)

mmoetc said:


> There were a lot of people a century ago who were sure the horseless carriage was just a fad. Too expensive, too noisy, too unreliable. I look at the rise of things like ride sharing services and community cars and realize that the younger generations look at cars in a different way than those of my and my parents generations. Many people's daily commutes are perfectly suited to electric vehicles and as they become more common and less expensive many will migrate that way. Easy enough to rent a larger vehicle when neccessary or if longer range is needed. We occasionally do it now for weekend road trips. $20 a day and no extra miles or wear and tear on our daily drivers. Technology and progress seldom rest and economics soon follow.


Do you homestead? I can't see not having my big pick up for getting feed, buying lumber, taking animals to the vet, doing dump runs, heck even pulling stumps.


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## bowdonkey (Oct 6, 2007)

There is no down side to cheap oil, unless someone starts a war over it. Let the price fall even more. The oil companies never cared one bit about the American consumer except to extract all they can from his wallet. Remember the melt down in 08. Fuel prices were sky high. They get everything they want in Congress including subsidies! Like they need it. I hope they go broke. I wanna see oil execs laying in the gutter begging for alms, fighting over a cigarette butt. Let it crash.


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## clovis (May 13, 2002)

watcher said:


> What makes you think this way?


I believe that oil could easily jump to $8 a gallon in the US at some point in the future.

I believe that the easy-to-get oil, generally speaking, has already been found and pumped out of the ground. The drillers are going to have to spend more to get what's left out there, and with global demand growing, a restricted supply will cause the price to shoot up dramatically.

If $3.50 to $4 gas sold a ton of hybrids and gave the electrics a foothold in the marketplace, what will $8 gas do to the market?

In the past few years I have heard people routinely say "I wouldn't buy that model. It only gets 37 MPG. The other model can get 40 MPG." (These are in reference to gas engine cars.) 

As well, the manufacturers are in an extremely mature and competitive market, and will push hybrids of all types to make consumers happy. The manufacturers have a bottom line to protect, and when fuel prices spike again, they'll be pushing high MPG vehicles of all types.

FWIW, I heard today that some king of OPEC announced that oil will be $200 a barrel in 3 to 4 years.


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## Paumon (Jul 12, 2007)

where I want to said:


> Do you homestead? I can't see not having my big pick up for getting feed, buying lumber, taking animals to the vet, doing dump runs, heck even pulling stumps.


Don't forget, homesteaders and farmers are a minority. Only about 15% (or less) of the overall population. So while homesteaders and farmers may always need big pickups to suit their lifestyle and occupations, the other 85% don't need vehicles like that and it's the majority whose demands will be getting met, not the minority.


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## Nevada (Sep 9, 2004)

Paumon said:


> Don't forget, homesteaders and farmers are a minority. Only about 15% (or less) of the overall population. So while homesteaders and farmers may always need big pickups to suit their lifestyle and occupations, the other 85% don't need vehicles like that and it's the majority whose demands will be getting met, not the minority.


I suspect that an electric solution will eventually be developed for pickups, and even semi tractors.


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## Paumon (Jul 12, 2007)

Nevada said:


> I suspect that an electric solution will eventually be developed for pickups, and even semi tractors.


They have already been developed and are in use in some other countries. And now in North America VIAmotors has been developing extended range electric powertrains in full-size trucks, vans and SUVs, EREVS with 400 hp with a range of 100 mpg and the first 40 miles in all electric mode. http://www.viamotors.com/vehicles/electric-truck/


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## arabian knight (Dec 19, 2005)

Once again a pipe dream. 350 miles EXTENDED RANGE~! WOW
Truck owners want a whole heck of a lot more range then THAT.
and ONLY 1000 pounds payload. WHOPPIE. * A full charge costs less than $2,* 
And where do you think the electricity to charge that thing comes from? Most likely fro COAL FIRED POWER PLANTS. LOL

Compare THAT with the new F-150 Fords~! And THAT is a 1/2 ton
Maximum Conventional Towing
(When properly equipped)	12,200 lbs. 
Maximum Payload
(When properly equipped) (Regular Cab 4x2 with 5.0L V8 and Heavy Duty Payload Pkg)	3,300 lbs.

I like to see IF they could PROPERLY EQUIP THAT ONE to do those things.


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## unregistered353870 (Jan 16, 2013)

Battery technology will continue to get better and cheaper to the point that electric vehicles become preferred for a lot more uses. I can see it happening for some pickups...and they'll be high performing pickups, not the little weaklings a lot of people are imagining. I don't see OTR semi tractors going all electric. Could happen, but I highly doubt it will in the next 50 years, if ever.

Certainly expect a lot of electric vehicles in the next few decades and I'll be happy to see them if I live long enough, but the oil market isn't going away anytime soon.


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## mmoetc (Oct 9, 2012)

where I want to said:


> Do you homestead? I can't see not having my big pick up for getting feed, buying lumber, taking animals to the vet, doing dump runs, heck even pulling stumps.


You're not who I'm talking about although we do many of the same things you do without the cost or maintenance of a full size pick up. Not much I can't haul with the minivan and a trailer. The people I am talking about live in much more urban area with access to good public transport or who have commutes of less than 20 miles a day. Perfect candidates for electric vehicles. Some businesses are already installing charging stations for their employees. Still probably more of a gimmick than a trend but everything starts somewhere. Zipcar allows people that don't want the expense of buying a vehicle, paying the liscence, insurance, maintainence, and parking expenses to pay a small fee and have access to a wide variety of vehicles. Even Enterprise car rentals has a car sharing program. The worlds changing.


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## Paumon (Jul 12, 2007)

arabian knight said:


> Once again a pipe dream. 350 miles EXTENDED RANGE~! WOW
> Truck owners want a whole heck of a lot more range then THAT.
> and ONLY 1000 pounds payload. WHOPPIE. A full charge costs less than $2,
> And where do you think the electricity to charge that thing comes from? Most likely fro COAL FIRED POWER PLANTS. LOL
> ...


LOL.

AK, that's not the point. 

The point is that electric pickups are already developed and being used by people and manufacturers are continuing to develop them further for greater demands.


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## HDRider (Jul 21, 2011)

Gas prices rose overnight. First rise in many weeks. 

Energy stocks were up over other sectors yesterday. 

Gloom is doomed.


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## arabian knight (Dec 19, 2005)

HDRider said:


> Gas prices rose overnight. First rise in many weeks.
> 
> Energy stocks were up over other sectors yesterday.
> 
> Gloom is doomed.


 Crude Price is way down today maybe the lowest since this downfall started it is at 45.15 right now.


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## bowdonkey (Oct 6, 2007)

jtbrandt said:


> Battery technology will continue to get better and cheaper to the point that electric vehicles become preferred for a lot more uses. I can see it happening for some pickups...and they'll be high performing pickups, not the little weaklings a lot of people are imagining. I don't see OTR semi tractors going all electric. Could happen, but I highly doubt it will in the next 50 years, if ever.
> 
> Certainly expect a lot of electric vehicles in the next few decades and I'll be happy to see them if I live long enough, but the oil market isn't going away anytime soon.


I agree. Give it enough time and they will go the way of the buggy whip!


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## AmericanStand (Jul 29, 2014)

Over the road Semis would be some of the easiest to convert to full electric.. The key is to have to have a interstate system capable of on highway recharging.


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## Roadking (Oct 8, 2009)

Oil up slightly, DOW down 360 plus points. 

Matt

PS I'll keep my Suburban and F-150.


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## unregistered358967 (Jul 17, 2013)

AmericanStand said:


> Over the road Semis would be some of the easiest to convert to full electric.. The key is to have to have a interstate system capable of on highway recharging.


You bring up a good point. I'd like an electric car but charging stations here are few and far between. (in CA there were tons). Truckers need to move, move, move. No time to sit and charge except when stopped for the night and only if at a truck stop.

I wonder if something could built and designed so when the trucks are going down the interstates, some sort of device either built into the road to cause an automatic charge or every so often on the side of the road they would drive under and it would add a charge by 'talking' to the truck.

Interesting to think about...:bored:


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## mmoetc (Oct 9, 2012)

It might tie into driverless technology. Say, for example, the range of these trucks is 500 miles. If no drivers are tied to a particular tractor, why not just switch the load to a new, fully charged tractor every 500 miles. Plug the depleted one in and it's ready for the next load coming down the pike. It could probably be done at least as quickly as a current fuel stop and there would be no mandatory rest breaks.


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## watcher (Sep 4, 2006)

clovis said:


> I believe that oil could easily jump to $8 a gallon in the US at some point in the future.
> 
> I believe that the easy-to-get oil, generally speaking, has already been found and pumped out of the ground. The drillers are going to have to spend more to get what's left out there, and with global demand growing, a restricted supply will cause the price to shoot up dramatically.


Really? Look at all the oil we "found" when oil was at $100+. Suddenly the US was the #1 or #2 oil producing nation in the world.




clovis said:


> If $3.50 to $4 gas sold a ton of hybrids and gave the electrics a foothold in the marketplace, what will $8 gas do to the market?


If by a ton you mean 2,000 or so you are about right. 





clovis said:


> In the past few years I have heard people routinely say "I wouldn't buy that model. It only gets 37 MPG. The other model can get 40 MPG." (These are in reference to gas engine cars.)


You live in a different area that I do. The people I deal with upfront cost is the first thing they look at, standard and optional equipment for that cost is the second. If two cars are about the same in price and equipment THEN mpg may come into the mix. Do you realize how much you have to drive for 2 mpg to make a real difference?




clovis said:


> As well, the manufacturers are in an extremely mature and competitive market, and will push hybrids of all types to make consumers happy. The manufacturers have a bottom line to protect, and when fuel prices spike again, they'll be pushing high MPG vehicles of all types.


Manufactures have found that trying to "push" cars on their consumers leaves them with very few consumers. They learned this in the 70s. Manufactures who make cars people want will make money, assuming the government gets out of their way. 

BTW in 2014, when the average price of gas per gallon was over $3, do you know what top 3 selling vehicles were? Small fuel economical cars? Nope. Full sized pickups. #3 Dodge Ram (17/25 mpg), #2 Chevy Silverado (18/24), #1 Ford F-150 (17/23).

How does that fit with you view that when gas shoots up people will scream for hybrids?




clovis said:


> FWIW, I heard today that some king of OPEC announced that oil will be $200 a barrel in 3 to 4 years.


I heard not that long ago we'd "never" see crude below $100/bbl again. According to google as I write this its below $50.


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## watcher (Sep 4, 2006)

Paumon said:


> Don't forget, homesteaders and farmers are a minority. Only about 15% (or less) of the overall population. So while homesteaders and farmers may always need big pickups to suit their lifestyle and occupations, the other 85% don't need vehicles like that and it's the majority whose demands will be getting met, not the minority.


They may not need them but they sure WANT them. The top 3 selling vehicles in 2014, when gas was $3/gal, were the Dodge Ram, the Chevy Silverado and the Ford F-150.


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## nchobbyfarm (Apr 10, 2011)

2dogs-mom said:


> You bring up a good point. I'd like an electric car but charging stations here are few and far between. (in CA there were tons). Truckers need to move, move, move. No time to sit and charge except when stopped for the night and only if at a truck stop.
> 
> I wonder if something could built and designed so when the trucks are going down the interstates, some sort of device either built into the road to cause an automatic charge or every so often on the side of the road they would drive under and it would add a charge by 'talking' to the truck.
> 
> Interesting to think about...:bored:


Windmill on top to create your own energy as you drive!


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## Roadking (Oct 8, 2009)

Can't do that! Think of the birds!
/sarc off

Matt


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## Paumon (Jul 12, 2007)

2dogs-mom said:


> You bring up a good point. I'd like an electric car but charging stations here are few and far between. (in CA there were tons). Truckers need to move, move, move. No time to sit and charge except when stopped for the night and only if at a truck stop.
> 
> I wonder if something could built and designed so *when the trucks are going down the interstates, some sort of device* either built into the road to cause an automatic charge or every so often on the side of the road they would drive under *and it would add a charge* by 'talking' to the truck.
> 
> *Interesting to think about*...:bored:


Perhaps some sort of sophisticated hub dynamos built into all the wheels of the trucks (like the hub dynamos {magnetos} you see on bicycle wheels to power bicycle headlights) could be devised to generate enough electricity to re-charge reserve batteries while the trucks are moving.


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## Paumon (Jul 12, 2007)

watcher said:


> They may not need them but they sure WANT them. The top 3 selling vehicles in 2014, when gas was $3/gal, were the Dodge Ram, the Chevy Silverado and the Ford F-150.


LOL. Yeah. I think that's what foreigners call "the _REAL_ American Dream" - everyone WANTS a great big honkin' monster of a gas guzzler as a symbol of status and success and money to burn. Personally I WANT to have a Suburban again but the more economical and practical side of me tells me to be content with my little Nissan p/u.


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## clovis (May 13, 2002)

watcher said:


> Really? Look at all the oil we "found" when oil was at $100+. Suddenly the US was the #1 or #2 oil producing nation in the world.
> 
> If by a ton you mean 2,000 or so you are about right.
> 
> ...


You make some good points.

I just have a different perspective on the future of oil and how we use it for transportation.

Maybe you are right...I wish that I had a crystal ball! I'd be rich!!!!


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## unregistered353870 (Jan 16, 2013)

Paumon said:


> Perhaps some sort of sophisticated hub dynamos built into all the wheels of the trucks (like the hub dynamos {magnetos} you see on bicycle wheels to power bicycle headlights) could be devised to generate enough electricity to re-charge reserve batteries while the trucks are moving.


I'm not sure I understand this idea. Are you talking all-electric, or a hybrid of some sort? Seems there are already better options for hybrid technology, and I don't see how it could possibly work on an all-electric.


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## unregistered353870 (Jan 16, 2013)

AmericanStand said:


> Over the road Semis would be some of the easiest to convert to full electric.. The key is to have to have a interstate system capable of on highway recharging.


Well, yeah...but judging from the current state of our infrastructure, that isn't going to happen any time soon. It would take a huge investment, and we're not even investing enough to keep our low tech highways from falling apart now.


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## Paumon (Jul 12, 2007)

jtbrandt said:


> I'm not sure I understand this idea. Are you talking all-electric, or a hybrid of some sort? Seems there are already better options for hybrid technology, and I don't see how it could possibly work on an all-electric.


All electric. Here, I'm going to get all metaphysical and futuristic on you. 

"Cogito ergo sum" means "I think, therefore I am". That means if I think of something it will eventually become reality - it will become the "I am". 

_I think_ that one day in the more distant future all mechanical devices will be powered by quartz "dynamos" (for lack of a better word) that store and generate so much energy that is presently beyond the comprehension of man. Because I think it, it will become reality. Somebody else can run with that thought and do something about it to make it the reality. :happy2:


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## MO_cows (Aug 14, 2010)

Paumon said:


> LOL. Yeah. I think that's what foreigners call "the _REAL_ American Dream" - everyone WANTS a great big honkin' monster of a gas guzzler as a symbol of status and success and money to burn. Personally I WANT to have a Suburban again but the more economical and practical side of me tells me to be content with my little Nissan p/u.


Maybe the soccer moms who traded in their minivans for SUVs see them as a status symbol. But most people who buy them, do so because they actually use them. 

And don't forget the safety factor. The number one determining factor for how much injury you sustain in a crash is directly related to the weight of your vehicle vs the one you hit (or hit you). Friend of mine likes bigger vehicles, she doesn't drive a lot of miles so the gas isn't an issue. She got t-boned by a pickup pulling a loaded trailer who ran a red light, would have killed her if she had been in a little econobox car and not a 1/2 ton custom van. My mom used to have a long commute and got herself a little 40 mpg Geo - I worried a lot about her during that time!

New, fuel efficient cars don't just fall out of the sky, either -- there is an ecological cost to build them. So that heavy duty vehicle that lasts for 25 years offsets a lot of its fuel usage by not requiring another vehicle to be built to replace it. Versus a little econobox car that is so devalued in 10 years it's not worth fixing anymore and gets replaced. 

It's real easy to judge someone in the moment if you see them parallel parking a big ol Suburban downtown and wearing office clothes, but you don't know what they do in the rest of their life.

As far as being a martyr, depriving yourself of the vehicle you really want, I doubt you drive enough miles for it to make any difference in the big picture anyway. Someone with "new money" in China just bought an Escalade........


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## unregistered353870 (Jan 16, 2013)

Paumon said:


> All electric. Here, I'm going to get all metaphysical and futuristic on you.
> 
> "Cogito ergo sum" means "I think, therefore I am". That means if I think of something it will eventually become reality - it will become the "I am".
> 
> _I think_ that one day in the more distant future all mechanical devices will be powered by quartz "dynamos" (for lack of a better word) that store and generate so much energy that is presently beyond the comprehension of man. Because I think it, it will become reality. Somebody else can run with that thought and do something about it to make it the reality. :happy2:


OK, fair enough. It sounds like it would necessarily violate the law of conservation of energy, but I can't argue with metaphysical quartz dynamos...nor would I want to. I'll be long dead before something like that comes along...by that time they should also have the ability to bring me back to life, but would they? Probably not.

It occurs to me that as long as you're getting all metaphysical, you might as well leave out the electricity also...it has its inefficiencies...not that inefficiency is a problem if you have essentially unlimited energy, but still....


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## Paumon (Jul 12, 2007)

jtbrandt said:


> OK, fair enough. *It sounds like it would necessarily violate the law of conservation of energy*, but I can't argue with metaphysical quartz dynamos...nor would I want to. I'll be long dead before something like that comes along...by that time they should also have the ability to bring me back to life, but would they? Probably not.
> 
> It occurs to me that as long as you're getting all metaphysical, you might as well leave out the electricity also...it has its inefficiencies...not that inefficiency is a problem if you have essentially unlimited energy, but still....


Not really. Quartz is naturally piezoelectric (think of piezoelectric transducers which convert energy from one form to another) and it's pyroelectric and it's already used to generate and to store energy for powering other mechanisms and that technology has been used thusly for several years. And there's a great deal more quartz on the planet than there is oil and it's renewable and re-chargeable. So I don't believe it's a huge leap to envision the technology becoming more advanced and being used that way on a much larger scale in the future.

It was just a thought.


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## unregistered353870 (Jan 16, 2013)

mmoetc said:


> It might tie into driverless technology. Say, for example, the range of these trucks is 500 miles. If no drivers are tied to a particular tractor, why not just switch the load to a new, fully charged tractor every 500 miles. Plug the depleted one in and it's ready for the next load coming down the pike. It could probably be done at least as quickly as a current fuel stop and there would be no mandatory rest breaks.


Before we get to driverless, it could be done with interchangeable battery packs...stop and swap out a battery in 2 minutes and be on your way. I don't think battery tech is good enough for semis to do that yet. Just a wild guess, but I would think 200 miles is probably on the very high end of the range that is currently feasible for OTR trucks. Most current OTR trucks can go 1000-2000 miles or more between diesel fill ups. For trucks driven by humans, I would think they would have to be able to go 500 miles or so between "fuel" stops to be acceptable. The driverless idea would probably make it more reasonable to stop more often, as they could be in service 24 hours a day...so I agree that driverless trucks could be a game changer. It will still take a lot of infrastructure, though.

Tesla is working on the interchangeable battery packs for their cars and they have had some good progress with it. But Tesla isn't even really an auto company. It's a tech company that just happens to use cars to test bigger ideas. If that kind of innovation were valued (profitable) by actual auto companies, we could have some great solutions already. Just waiting for another tipping point.


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## unregistered358967 (Jul 17, 2013)

Don't forget about potty stops unless you have a spare bottle.


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## unregistered353870 (Jan 16, 2013)

Paumon said:


> Not really. Quartz is naturally piezoelectric (think of piezoelectric transducers which convert energy from one form to another) and it's pyroelectric and it's already used to generate and to store energy for powering other mechanisms and that technology has been used thusly for several years. And there's a great deal more quartz on the planet than there is oil and it's renewable and re-chargeable. So I don't believe it's a huge leap to envision the technology becoming more advanced and being used that way on a much larger scale in the future.
> 
> It was just a thought.


I don't know much about quartz, but my point is that energy cannot be created. Any energy used by a vehicle has to come from somewhere. If it's generated from the rotation of the wheel hubs, then where did the energy come from originally? Not from the wheel hubs. It had to be put into the wheel hubs to make them rotate in the first place.


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## unregistered353870 (Jan 16, 2013)

2dogs-mom said:


> Don't forget about potty stops unless you have a spare bottle.


Walk along the ramp from a rest stop back onto the interstate...you'll find hundreds of those bottles...disgusting. It doesn't even make sense, since they're leaving a rest stop, why not throw the bottles in the trash there? But they toss them out the window. Just be glad you're not the guy who finds them with the mower....


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## Paumon (Jul 12, 2007)

They should be saving that urine to convert into electricity.

Pee power! http://uber-facts.com/2014/02/06/making-electricity-from-urine/


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## bowdonkey (Oct 6, 2007)

2dogs-mom said:


> Don't forget about potty stops unless you have a spare bottle.


Or a rust hole in the floor board like my car!


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## Paumon (Jul 12, 2007)

jtbrandt said:


> I don't know much about quartz, but my point is that energy cannot be created. Any energy used by a vehicle has to come from somewhere. If it's generated from the rotation of the wheel hubs, then where did the energy come from originally? Not from the wheel hubs. It had to be put into the wheel hubs to make them rotate in the first place.


Energy is everywhere in all things, even in the air, in particular electromagnetic energy. Quartz can collect and store electromagnetic energy from any other source. Motion and friction generates heat energy (pyroelectricity) and electromagnetic energy (piezoelectricity). So, if an electric battery has the energy to power the mechanism that starts the wheels into motion, once those wheels are rotating they are generating other types of electromagnetic energy (piezoelectricity) and heat energy (pyroelectricity) from their motion and friction for as long as they are rotating. The wheels are the dynamos and as they turn faster they generate more and more energy. A quartz device (like a type of storage battery) at each wheel can collect and store the energies that are being generated by each wheel in motion, and those energies can then be converted by quartz transduction into the electricity needed to charge or re-charge the other battery that powers the mechanism that started the wheels turning in the first place.


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## unregistered353870 (Jan 16, 2013)

Paumon said:


> Energy is everywhere in all things, even in the air, in particular electromagnetic energy.


That did occur to me, and if something could be made to harvest energy from those sources, it would be pretty cool.



> Quartz can collect and store electromagnetic energy from any other source. Motion and friction generates heat energy (pyroelectricity) and electromagnetic energy (piezoelectricity). So, if an electric battery has the energy to power the mechanism that starts the wheels into motion, once those wheels are rotating they are generating other types of electromagnetic energy (piezoelectricity) and heat energy (pyroelectricity) from their motion and friction for as long as they are rotating. The wheels are the dynamos and as they turn faster they generate more and more energy. A quartz device (like a type of storage battery) at each wheel can collect and store the energies that are being generated by each wheel in motion, and those energies can then be converted by quartz transduction into the electricity needed to charge or re-charge the other battery that powers the mechanism that started the wheels turning in the first place.


But in this scenario, all the energy still comes from the battery...you're not going to get more out of the battery than you put into it from an outside source...it's not going to run forever without being recharged from the grid or solar panels or something else (like maybe harvesting those electromagnetic fields, although I have no idea how much energy is available there or if there will ever be a practical way to harvest it in a vehicle). There's no way around that. The dynamos you envision could possibly make the system more efficient by capturing what would be lost as heat, but you still need an input.

Some electric cars already use something like this called regenerative braking, where instead of using friction to slow the car, they actually use the motor as a generator to charge the battery a bit when braking...currently they only capture a small fraction of it, though. No fancy quartz dynamos involved, so maybe those could make that kind of thing much better.


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## unregistered353870 (Jan 16, 2013)

bowdonkey said:


> Or a rust hole in the floor board like my car!


There is actually a "device" sold in some truck stops and online that uses an external catheter with a tube that drains through a hole in the floorboard...very odd...kind of like a built in urinal, but I suppose useful to long haul truckers. So if you see a spray of water coming from under a semi, pass with care I guess.


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## bowdonkey (Oct 6, 2007)

jtbrandt said:


> There is actually a "device" sold in some truck stops and online that uses an external catheter with a tube that drains through a hole in the floorboard...very odd...kind of like a built in urinal, but I suppose useful to long haul truckers. So if you see a spray of water coming from under a semi, pass with care I guess.


Hmm, that gives me an idea!:happy2:


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## Aintlifegrand (Jun 3, 2005)

mmoetc said:


> You always say buy silver.
> 
> Every day that oil prices stay low we win. The longer they stay low the less drag on the overall economy. Farmers should have lower fuel bills for planting, tillage and harvesting. Good for them. Transportation costs for every industry will be less. Good for them. Every consumer good that gets to a store will have less cost associated with it. Price savings or increased profits. Good for somebody. Airlines- lower fuel prices good. Travel and tourism- less money in gas tanks more in stores, restaurants, hotels..... That oil in the ground isn't going anywhere. It will be there when prices go back up. Let the Saudis sell us their cheap oil for as long as they want.
> 
> http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=12451. Even if every one of those 168,000 jobs created disappeared they wouldn't create much of a blip in the 100 million or so employed in this country.


Read the latest durable goods reports..there is no demand and no amount of lower costs (fuel or otherwise) will create demand especially when in durable goods inflation has been zero..Transportation..commuication..computers etc..DG has been decreasing with each month for at least the last three...how lower fuel is going to help that is my question. My guess is..it will hurt it even further


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## Aintlifegrand (Jun 3, 2005)

Paumon said:


> All electric. Here, I'm going to get all metaphysical and futuristic on you.
> 
> "Cogito ergo sum" means "I think, therefore I am". That means if I think of something it will eventually become reality - it will become the "I am".
> 
> _I think_ that one day in the more distant future all mechanical devices will be powered by quartz "dynamos" (for lack of a better word) that store and generate so much energy that is presently beyond the comprehension of man. Because I think it, it will become reality. Somebody else can run with that thought and do something about it to make it the reality. :happy2:


Besides the loss of oil field jobs and all the other associated jobs..what incentive will there be to develop any of the alternative products as long as gas is under two bucks a gallon..when gas was 4 bucks everyone was talking about small cars to save on gas..hybrids..electrics..not so much now


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## unregistered353870 (Jan 16, 2013)

As long as gas is under $2...very little incentive...but Paumon was being futuristic...sounds more sci-fi to me, but a lot of things we have today probably sounded like sci-fi 100 years ago.


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## Sawmill Jim (Dec 5, 2008)

Can you say end of petro dollar Russia and China both are parting with their US bonds fast no need for dollars anymore in most countries . Would say our reserve currency has bit the dust . Think some of these countries caught on to the Fed's printing :zzz:

Russia has in one year parted with 31.8 billion and got lots more to go .


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## Paumon (Jul 12, 2007)

Aintlifegrand said:


> Besides the loss of oil field jobs and all the other associated jobs..what incentive will there be to develop any of the alternative products as long as gas is under two bucks a gallon..when gas was 4 bucks everyone was talking about small cars to save on gas..hybrids..electrics..not so much now


That sounds like you think other people believe that global oil supplies are infinite and that the price of petroleum products is going to stay low now. I don't understand why anyone would think that. If that's what people believe then I think they're setting themselves up for a massively huge disappointment. This lowering of prices is just a temporary thing that will lull people into throwing all caution to the wind and spending more money on other things and going into more debt than they're already in. Then the boom will come crashing down and the price of oil will go up again, only it will soar to much higher prices than what it was before.


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## mmoetc (Oct 9, 2012)

Aintlifegrand said:


> Read the latest durable goods reports..there is no demand and no amount of lower costs (fuel or otherwise) will create demand especially when in durable goods inflation has been zero..Transportation..commuication..computers etc..DG has been decreasing with each month for at least the last three...how lower fuel is going to help that is my question. My guess is..it will hurt it even further


Last year $14B less was spent on gasoline by American consumers than in 2013. That money has to go somewhere. Plane orders were down sharply but that may be more an accounting glitch than a trend. Apple had the single most profitable quarter of any company listed on the stock exchange by selling non durable goods. It's a modern world and maybe phones and aps are the new washers and dryers and we have to look at things differently.


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## watcher (Sep 4, 2006)

Paumon said:


> LOL. Yeah. I think that's what foreigners call "the _REAL_ American Dream" - everyone WANTS a great big honkin' monster of a gas guzzler as a symbol of status and success and money to burn. Personally I WANT to have a Suburban again but the more economical and practical side of me tells me to be content with my little Nissan p/u.


You should see how many new huge honking US made vehicles that we ship overseas. They have bid "Export Only" signs on them because they are not restricted by US regs.


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## arabian knight (Dec 19, 2005)

And if the true numbers were to get out about unemployment it would be around 10%~!
People Just Are Not Buying things, they are just Not going to as many places as before. Even Micky D's is seeing such a downturn that yesterday the CEO stepped down.
Now the restaurant they SAY is taking away the people is Chipotle Well TGHOSE people are completely different than the people that eat at Micky D's A WQHole lot different a higher pay grade of people.~!
There just isn't as much expendable money out there as in years past. And the OIL AND GAS consumption is down as people just are not going for those Sunday Drives like they used to. They just are not. This economy is very fragile and it is NOT as good as many seem to THINK it is or have been told it is. 
Just look at how many big name stores are closing their doors FOR GOOD.
Ho9w many Malls are now sitting empty or Malls that have so many vacant signs inside the building.
Heck even big name Macy's is Closing 4 stores..... 
Sure some things have been on the tick up trucks for one thing PU's well with 60 Month Financing is one reason and things were so LOW just a few years ago that ANY Tick UP would sound like the economy is going good. LOL


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## watcher (Sep 4, 2006)

jtbrandt said:


> Before we get to driverless, it could be done with interchangeable battery packs...stop and swap out a battery in 2 minutes and be on your way. I don't think battery tech is good enough for semis to do that yet. Just a wild guess, but I would think 200 miles is probably on the very high end of the range that is currently feasible for OTR trucks. Most current OTR trucks can go 1000-2000 miles or more between diesel fill ups. For trucks driven by humans, I would think they would have to be able to go 500 miles or so between "fuel" stops to be acceptable. The driverless idea would probably make it more reasonable to stop more often, as they could be in service 24 hours a day...so I agree that driverless trucks could be a game changer. It will still take a lot of infrastructure, though.
> 
> Tesla is working on the interchangeable battery packs for their cars and they have had some good progress with it. But Tesla isn't even really an auto company. It's a tech company that just happens to use cars to test bigger ideas. If that kind of innovation were valued (profitable) by actual auto companies, we could have some great solutions already. Just waiting for another tipping point.


Good idea but it has its own problems. Cost pops to mind first. Its going to cost a lot to build all these extra batteries just to have them sitting around waiting. 

Others such as where do you put these stations? How many batteries per location? How do you get the electric system upgraded to handle the extra power demand? Are the packs small enough you could do a road side replacement when someone tries to squeeze out a few extra miles out of their pack and doesn't make it to the station? 

I see electric cars being PART of the answer but until something huge happens in the tech I don't see them being able to replace a large section of the oil fired vehicle sector.


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## watcher (Sep 4, 2006)

jtbrandt said:


> There is actually a "device" sold in some truck stops and online that uses an external catheter with a tube that drains through a hole in the floorboard...very odd...kind of like a built in urinal, but I suppose useful to long haul truckers. So if you see a spray of water coming from under a semi, pass with care I guess.


Only an uninformed bozo would use such a thing. Urine is very corrosive and there are WAY too many things under a truck you don't want being corroded.


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## watcher (Sep 4, 2006)

Paumon said:


> That sounds like you think other people believe that global oil supplies are infinite and that the price of petroleum products is going to stay low now. I don't understand why anyone would think that. If that's what people believe then I think they're setting themselves up for a massively huge disappointment. This lowering of prices is just a temporary thing that will lull people into throwing all caution to the wind and spending more money on other things and going into more debt than they're already in. Then the boom will come crashing down and the price of oil will go up again, only it will soar to much higher prices than what it was before.


Yeah, in around 50-100 years (maybe that soon). As this last jump in oil prices has shown us there is a LOT of oil out there we haven't touched yet. Oil prices doubled or tripled in the last few years and did the world go Mad Max? Or did it adjust and start going after the oil which we know is out there but is only profitable when the price is over $100/bbl?


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## arabian knight (Dec 19, 2005)

watcher said:


> Yeah, in around 50-100 years (maybe that soon). As this last jump in oil prices has shown us there is a LOT of oil out there we haven't touched yet. Oil prices doubled or tripled in the last few years and did the world go Mad Max? Or did it adjust and start going after the oil which we know is out there but is only profitable when the price is over $100/bbl?


 Yes there is a Lot of oil still yet to pump out. On the lower side 150 Years on the high side up to 500 Years. Using close to the low side 200 years by THAT time something surely will be invented to take us off of being so dependent on oil but until then it is oil and gas will run this country, as well as the rest of the world.


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## unregistered353870 (Jan 16, 2013)

watcher said:


> Good idea but it has its own problems. Cost pops to mind first. Its going to cost a lot to build all these extra batteries just to have them sitting around waiting.
> 
> Others such as where do you put these stations? How many batteries per location? How do you get the electric system upgraded to handle the extra power demand? Are the packs small enough you could do a road side replacement when someone tries to squeeze out a few extra miles out of their pack and doesn't make it to the station?


All of that is why I included this line in the post you quote: "It will still take a lot of infrastructure, though." Cost isn't really a big issue...it will happen when it reaches the point where people see a potential profit...we're not close to that yet. Gas stations cost a lot of money to build and keep fuel just sitting around waiting, but we have plenty of those now. We'll get there.



> I see electric cars being PART of the answer but until something huge happens in the tech I don't see them being able to replace a large section of the oil fired vehicle sector.


I agree 100%. It's what I've been saying since I jumped into this thread.


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## unregistered353870 (Jan 16, 2013)

watcher said:


> Only an uninformed bozo would use such a thing. Urine is very corrosive and there are WAY too many things under a truck you don't want being corroded.


There's also a version with a collection bag...but I think I'd rather risk the corrosion than have a bag of urine strapped to my leg...surely a little urine on the underbody can't be any worse than constant exposure to road salt in the winter...I'd just feel bad about spraying the car passing me with the windows open....


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## Vahomesteaders (Jun 4, 2014)

jtbrandt said:


> There's also a version with a collection bag...but I think I'd rather risk the corrosion than have a bag of urine strapped to my leg...surely a little urine on the underbody can't be any worse than constant exposure to road salt in the winter...I'd just feel bad about spraying the car passing me with the windows open....


This could be seen as offensive to those with colostomy bags.


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## wr (Aug 10, 2003)

Vahomesteaders said:


> This could be seen as offensive to those with colostomy bags.



I may be misinformed but there is a significant difference between a medical condition than a long haul driver who prefers to maximize their driving hours. 

Professional drivers I know, find these little tricks (cutting holes in floorboards, urinating in zip lock bags, etc) highly offensive. 

I don't know of many colostomy patients that chuck a bag of urine out the window but I've seen a few truck drivers do it.


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## unregistered353870 (Jan 16, 2013)

Vahomesteaders said:


> This could be seen as offensive to those with colostomy bags.


Anything could be seen as offensive to anyone...I'm not too concerned by people who take offense at things I say about my personal preferences...I never would have guessed that preferring not to have a bag of bodily fluids on my leg would be controversial. I'm guessing those folks with colostomy bags would also prefer not to have them, but they don't have a choice.


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## unregistered353870 (Jan 16, 2013)

Amazing some of the places thread drift takes us...I know, I started it, but wow....


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## Vahomesteaders (Jun 4, 2014)

It was sarcasm. Lol


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## unregistered353870 (Jan 16, 2013)

Vahomesteaders said:


> It was sarcasm. Lol


I kind of suspected that, but it was missing something...my reply was intended to be humorous, but it may also have been missing something....


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## Aintlifegrand (Jun 3, 2005)

mmoetc said:


> Last year $14B less was spent on gasoline by American consumers than in 2013. That money has to go somewhere. Plane orders were down sharply but that may be more an accounting glitch than a trend. Apple had the single most profitable quarter of any company listed on the stock exchange by selling non durable goods. It's a modern world and maybe phones and aps are the new washers and dryers and we have to look at things differently.


It only has to go somewhere if it was still there to go...and the latest third revision of GDP says it didnt go anywhere..the expected pop in GDP from lower gas prices was 0.3 up..however it did not..it went down 0.9. My belief is that oil price was going to go down anyway due to slowing demand..however the overproduction turned that slowdown into a 60 plus percent decline in price almost overnight...Apple doesnt sell non durables..unless you mean real apples as well as stock exchange has no relationship to growth of economy


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## Aintlifegrand (Jun 3, 2005)

Paumon said:


> That sounds like you think other people believe that global oil supplies are infinite and that the price of petroleum products is going to stay low now. I don't understand why anyone would think that. If that's what people believe then I think they're setting themselves up for a massively huge disappointment. This lowering of prices is just a temporary thing that will lull people into throwing all caution to the wind and spending more money on other things and going into more debt than they're already in. Then the boom will come crashing down and the price of oil will go up again, only it will soar to much higher prices than what it was before.


Yes you are right about several things..other people do believe oil is infinite and there are those "smart ones" who think we will never see 50 a barrel again..and you are most definitely right about they wont realize it until the price of oil is soaring..and then it very well could be too late.


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## mmoetc (Oct 9, 2012)

Aintlifegrand said:


> It only has to go somewhere if it was still there...and the latest third revision of GDP says it didnt go anywhere..the expected pop in GDP from lower gas prices was 0.3 up..however it did not..it went down 0.9. My belief is that oil price was going to go down anyway due to slowing demand..however the overproduction turned that slowdown into a 60 plus percent decline in price almost overnight...Apple doesnt sell non durables..unless you mean real apples as well as stock exchange has no relationship to growth of economy


Part of my point is is that we have a new and different economy today than we have in the past. To continue to place great emphasis on washers, dryers, refrigerators and couches as the drivers of this new economy is living in the past. Sure, people continue to need and want these things but they also need and want the latest technology even more. Any measure of growth that doesn't take into account the sales of the newest hardware, and even more the software and content that support and compliment that technology seems, to me , not to measure the true drivers of future growth. It's hard to look at Apple's $18B quarter as anything but a good thing and an indicator of a different economic model. Where things like the tiny house movement and car sharing and many of the, if not lessening but different, aspects of modern materialism will eventually lead I can't be sure but I do think it will lead to more emphasis on things that aren't measured today.


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## Peggy (Feb 14, 2010)

I have also heard from several different sources that if oil price goes down to under $40 a barrel, it will have a devastating effect on the nation. oil workers will be layed off. WE DO NOT NEED more people losing their jobs. if the oil workers in the US are layed off, who will be around to refine the oil?? buy all oil from foreign countries and what would stop them from raising the price of oil back sky high again?? gas prices may be low but everything else is still going up and that still hurts everyone. 

I would not blow this off just because it looks good and gas prices are low.


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## mmoetc (Oct 9, 2012)

arabian knight said:


> And if the true numbers were to get out about unemployment it would be around 10%~!
> People Just Are Not Buying things, they are just Not going to as many places as before. Even Micky D's is seeing such a downturn that yesterday the CEO stepped down.
> Now the restaurant they SAY is taking away the people is Chipotle Well TGHOSE people are completely different than the people that eat at Micky D's A WQHole lot different a higher pay grade of people.~!
> There just isn't as much expendable money out there as in years past. And the OIL AND GAS consumption is down as people just are not going for those Sunday Drives like they used to. They just are not. This economy is very fragile and it is NOT as good as many seem to THINK it is or have been told it is.
> ...


It's hard to see the growth of Chipotle as a negative thing. McDonalds isn't losing market share because fewer people are eating out . They are because others are now doing things better than they. There's more competition for them from a lot of new comers. There's a blue roofed Wisconsin based chain that has grown remarkably during these supposedly awful times. If people aren't spending how does Craig keep opening restaurants? The fact that people are eating at Chipotle and spending more than at McDonalds means that theses people exist and they have money to spend. Enough of them to drive a lot of new locations. They're not the 1% and some may even be in the infamous 47%. Lower gas prices free up more disposable income. People will find a way to dispose of it.


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## Aintlifegrand (Jun 3, 2005)

mmoetc said:


> Part of my point is is that we have a new and different economy today than we have in the past. To continue to place great emphasis on washers, dryers, refrigerators and couches as the drivers of this new economy is living in the past. Sure, people continue to need and want these things but they also need and want the latest technology even more. Any measure of growth that doesn't take into account the sales of the newest hardware, and even more the software and content that support and compliment that technology seems, to me , not to measure the true drivers of future growth. It's hard to look at Apple's $18B quarter as anything but a good thing and an indicator of a different economic model. Where things like the tiny house movement and car sharing and many of the, if not lessening but different, aspects of modern materialism will eventually lead I can't be sure but I do think it will lead to more emphasis on things that aren't measured today.


Im quite sure Apples best ever growth is good..good for Apple. However Im not convinced that its growth is an indicator of good economic news especially while ignoring Durable goods reports as well as GDP. How much of that contributed the the growth of the US economy? Apple products are manufactured and assembled all over the world...or is it that you believe the fact that people being able to buy apple products means people have discretionary spending so must be doing well? DG was down even ex aircraft and defense when it was expected to rise...and for the forth month in a row..and even after apples big profit..no getting around the decline


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## unregistered353870 (Jan 16, 2013)

Peggy said:


> I have also heard from several different sources that if oil price goes down to under $40 a barrel, it will have a devastating effect on the nation. oil workers will be layed off. WE DO NOT NEED more people losing their jobs. *if the oil workers in the US are layed off, who will be around to refine the oil??* buy all oil from foreign countries and what would stop them from raising the price of oil back sky high again?? gas prices may be low but everything else is still going up and that still hurts everyone.
> 
> I would not blow this off just because it looks good and gas prices are low.


Refinery workers won't be laid off because of cheap oil. More likely they'll be working more. It's the people in drilling and related fields that will be laid off.


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## arabian knight (Dec 19, 2005)

jtbrandt said:


> Amazing some of the places thread drift takes us...I know, I started it, but wow....


 Wow is correct, but it sure is a good read while munching down some popcorn to see where in the world this is going next wearing Depends. LOL


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## mmoetc (Oct 9, 2012)

Aintlifegrand said:


> Im quite sure Apples best ever growth is good..good for Apple. However Im not convinced that its growth is an indicator of good economic news especially while ignoring Durable goods reports as well as GDP. How much of that contibuted the the growth of the US economy? Apple peoducts are manfactured and assembled all over the world.


Why wouldn't it be good for the economy? Actual people spent actual money. That's how an economy works. People designed, built, packaged, transported and sold every one of those phones, tablets, computers and all the accessories. They all got paid and then went on to spend some of that paycheck on other things. Other people designed the software, the games, the cool little apps that sold for 99 cents, the music, the videos, the movies and all the other things that people do on their phones besides talking. They all got paid, too. There was probably a time when someone looked at the sales of horses, noted they were down markedly and said what an awful thing it was. Of course if they looked at car sales, which didn't exist before, they might have drawn a different conclusion. Maybe by looking at washers and dryers we're looking in the wrong direction.


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## arabian knight (Dec 19, 2005)

I had a sign on the back of my horse trailer that said Watch Out For Falling Road Apples.

Well is there a sign for watch for splashing p? LOL


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## Nevada (Sep 9, 2004)

I think the entire Keystone issue has become academic. Even if it's approved I doubt it will be built any time soon. When the continued production of tar sands is in question, the pipeline doesn't make economic sense.


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## Aintlifegrand (Jun 3, 2005)

mmoetc said:


> Why wouldn't it be good for the economy? Actual people spent actual money. That's how an economy works. People designed, built, packaged, transported and sold every one of those phones, tablets, computers and all the accessories. They all got paid and then went on to spend some of that paycheck on other things. Other people designed the software, the games, the cool little apps that sold for 99 cents, the music, the videos, the movies and all the other things that people do on their phones besides talking. They all got paid, too. There was probably a time when someone looked at the sales of horses, noted they were down markedly and said what an awful thing it was. Of course if they looked at car sales, which didn't exist before, they might have drawn a different conclusion. Maybe by looking at washers and dryers we're looking in the wrong direction.


Ok so if all these people made money and then spent money..why did GDP decline? Or is that measurment no longer any good either..is it that we only have to look at Apples quarterly growth now to measure the strength of the economy


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## mmoetc (Oct 9, 2012)

Aintlifegrand said:


> Ok so if all these people made money and then spent money..why did GDP decline? Or is that measurment no longer any good either..is it that we only have to look at Apples quarterly growth now to measure the strength of the economy


I'm not sure where you're getting your GDP numbers. The official government numbers appear much more positive than yours. http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdphighlights.pdf


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## arabian knight (Dec 19, 2005)

mmoetc said:


> I'm not sure where you're getting your GDP numbers. The official government numbers appear much more positive than yours. http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdphighlights.pdf


:happy::happy::happy: 

Ya and the unemployment numbers are 5.8 When in TRUTH it is around 10% :roll eyes:
And yet some still BELIEVE what the GOVERNMENT is telling them? Wow


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## mmoetc (Oct 9, 2012)

arabian knight said:


> :happy::happy::happy:
> 
> Ya and the unemployment numbers are 5.8 When in TRUTH it is around 10% :roll eyes:
> And yet some still BELIEVE what the GOVERNMENT is telling them? Wow


So give me the numbers from your trusted source that show GDP numbers are different than the one's I linked to.


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## Aintlifegrand (Jun 3, 2005)

mmoetc said:


> I'm not sure where you're getting your GDP numbers. The official government numbers appear much more positive than yours. http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdphighlights.pdf


http://www.cnbc.com/id/100419252

If that doesnt work..type in fourth gtr gdp which came out today and was quite a surprise..it was the first decline since the recession...and to bring this back on topic..the expectation that cheap oil would produce a growth in gdp which actually did not occur..my point being is the economy is slowing and that oil price is a predictor..first out numbers almost always are revised downward. My prediction is that with the oil bust as this topic refers to will cause a further decline in the coming quarters as those largest companies reduce and or cancel capex and begin the layoff contagion..jmo


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## mmoetc (Oct 9, 2012)

Aintlifegrand said:


> http://www.cnbc.com/id/100419252
> 
> If that doesnt work..type in fourth gtr gdp which came out today and was quite a surprise..it was the first decline since the recession...and to bring this back on topic..the expectation that cheap oil would produce a growth in gdp which actually did not occur..my point being is the economy is slowing and that oil price is a predictor..first out numbers almost always are revised downward. My prediction is that with the oil bust as this topic refers to will cause a further decline in the coming quarters as those largest companies reduce and or cancel capex and begin the layoff contagion..jmo


You might want to check the date on that link. It comes up Jan, 2013 for me. Maybe something more recent would be in order?


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## Aintlifegrand (Jun 3, 2005)

mmoetc said:


> I'm not sure where you're getting your GDP numbers. The official government numbers appear much more positive than yours. http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdphighlights.pdf


Im referring to fourth quarter not third as your report refers to...Oct Nov and Dec..the period when gas prices at the pump began their decrease


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## mmoetc (Oct 9, 2012)

Aintlifegrand said:


> Im referring to fourth quarter not third as your report refers to...Oct Nov and Dec..the period when gas prices at the pump began their decrease


Show me the number. As far as I can tell the fourth quarter number hasn't been released. If you can provide a link to it I would appreciate it. I do know that China's fourth quarter GDP rose 7.4%.


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## Aintlifegrand (Jun 3, 2005)

mmoetc said:


> You might want to check the date on that link. It comes up Jan, 2013 for me. Maybe something more recent would be in order?


Yes you are correct my apologies..it comes out tommorrow...whew at least we have tommorrow to see if in fact we gained in GDP...however I still stand by my prediction that the oil bust is an indicator of a slowing economy..but who knows it might be different this time. Thanks for the catch..I was quite upset when I read that.


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## mmoetc (Oct 9, 2012)

Aintlifegrand said:


> Yes you are correct my apologies..it comes out tommorrow...whew at least we have tommorrow to see if in fact we gained in GDP...however I still stand by my prediction that the oil bust is an indicator of a slowing economy..but who knows it might be different this time. Thanks for the catch..I was quite upset when I read that.


No worries.


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## Aintlifegrand (Jun 3, 2005)

But please tell me that you dont really believe that man ( or better yet mans economy) can live by Apple products alone..


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## mmoetc (Oct 9, 2012)

Aintlifegrand said:


> But please tell me that you dont really believe that man ( or better yet mans economy) can live by Apple products alone..


I'm writing this on one right now. Something that wouldn't have been possible 8 short years ago. Technology like mobile payment aps have opened up a wide array of businesses. I can sell my goods across the continent or the world with a few key strokes. Twenty years ago that would have been so cost prohibitive as to make it almost impossible. I've learned not to discount the power of technology. Man can't live on technology alone but it certainly can make life easier, more productive and more entertaining.


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## bowdonkey (Oct 6, 2007)

If the Arabs wanted to drop us down a few notches, they should flood the market with really cheap oil. Then cut production majorly, till the price goes to astronomical levels. That should send the country into foreclosure. I still say the high fuel price was the domino that set off the 2008 financial meltdown.


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## mmoetc (Oct 9, 2012)

bowdonkey said:


> If the Arabs wanted to drop us down a few notches, they should flood the market with really cheap oil. Then cut production majorly, till the price goes to astronomical levels. That should send the country into foreclosure. I still say the high fuel price was the domino that set off the 2008 financial meltdown.


Our production capacity won't disappear with low oil prices. The reserves will remain in the ground. The rigs and infrastructure won't disappear, theyll just sit idle until the price rises high enough to make it economical to reactivate them. The people who know how to run them will come flocking back for the next boom. High oil prices did fuel the run up to the recession but we as a nation are in a much better place to influence those prices than we were then. The only long term game by the Saudis is to find that price point that keeps our oil off the market while making theirs profitable enough to sustain them. Whatever that price is it is likely less than what we've been paying until this recent downward run. At that, to me, is good news.


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## mmoetc (Oct 9, 2012)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...t-2-6-percent-pace-in-fourth-quarter-of-2014/

Here's the latest GDP number. Not as good as some hoped but a decrease in government spending helped drag it down. That decrease is good news, right? On the plus side consumer spending, the major driver of the economy, was up 4%. Pretty solid.


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## clovis (May 13, 2002)

We were out and about on Saturday, running errands and doing some shopping in the big retail town/area near our home. We aren't out much doing this on a typical Saturday, so I might not be a great judge of this, but the stores were CRAZY busy, and people were buying like mad.

Every parking lot that we passed was packed. Every store we visited had tremendous foot traffic, with long lines at the check-out. I felt like it was 1999, all over again. 

We sell at retail too, but I was bracing myself for a bad day. We've sold down lots of our stock in our antique mall and flea market booths, and told the wife "there isn't anything for people to buy from us...I can't imagine having a good day." I was dead wrong: We sold so much stuff yesterday that I couldn't believe it. We saw our online sales hours ago, and I am still in disbelief!

Cheap gas has put some new energy into this economy. I think that people feel so good about $2 gas that they are acting like they are getting it for free. In short, a person might only be saving $25 a week in gas, but they feel like they are getting $50, and they are spending it.


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## Vahomesteaders (Jun 4, 2014)

clovis said:


> We were out and about on Saturday, running errands and doing some shopping in the big retail town/area near our home. We aren't out much doing this on a typical Saturday, so I might not be a great judge of this, but the stores were CRAZY busy, and people were buying like mad.
> 
> Every parking lot that we passed was packed. Every store we visited had tremendous foot traffic, with long lines at the check-out. I felt like it was 1999, all over again.
> 
> ...


Super Bowl weekend.


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## arabian knight (Dec 19, 2005)

Yes I am sure that was it. many people have huge Super Bowl parties and such. Yes it was nuts this weekend at many places. It doesn't mean that just because gas is low people are spending it does mean Super Bowl Weekend.~! LOL


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## unregistered353870 (Jan 16, 2013)

Yeah, there's always that last minute run to the antique mall or flea market for Super Bowl party supplies....


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## Sawmill Jim (Dec 5, 2008)

jtbrandt said:


> Yeah, there's always that last minute run to the antique mall or flea market for Super Bowl party supplies....


Yea :hobbyhors We even have some in out family that if they have a extra $50.00 consider that as five down payments .Watch at some stores someone will buy a item then drive off with four bald tires on their truck .


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## clovis (May 13, 2002)

Vahomesteaders said:


> Super Bowl weekend.


That must explain our stellar sales for the entire months of December and January.


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## DEKE01 (Jul 17, 2013)

Paumon said:


> Not really. Quartz is naturally piezoelectric (think of piezoelectric transducers which convert energy from one form to another) and it's pyroelectric and it's already used to generate and to store energy for powering other mechanisms and that technology has been used thusly for several years. And there's a great deal more quartz on the planet than there is oil and it's renewable and re-chargeable. So I don't believe it's a huge leap to envision the technology becoming more advanced and being used that way on a much larger scale in the future.
> 
> It was just a thought.


If you understood science the way I do, you would know that a few percent of all quartz is actually dilithium crystals, which of course are the secret to abundant almost free electricity and travel at warp speed. You can't argue with Gene Roddenberry. :nerd:

This whole thread is another exercise in some people being afraid of change. If there is a complete crash in oil, the one thing we can be sure of is things will be different. And different scares the heck out of some folks. 

But different means opportunity for those with vision and creativity. Cheap oil or expensive oil means creative people will do things to take advantage of circumstances and jobs will be lost and jobs will be created. It has always worked that way with man and there is no reason to believe it will stop anytime soon. Individuals may face great hardship, but as a whole, we'll keep on keeping on.


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## Paumon (Jul 12, 2007)

DEKE01 said:


> If you understood science the way I do, you would know that a few percent of all quartz is actually dilithium crystals, which of course are the secret to abundant almost free electricity and travel at warp speed. You can't argue with Gene Roddenberry. :nerd:


Heh heh. I don't understand a lot about science but I know a lot about quartz and its uses including technological uses. It's amazing what's being done with it these days. :happy2:

But speaking of dilithium, and I'm talking about real dilithium (Li2), did you know about this?

http://beforeitsnews.com/opinion-co...s-from-6-months-to-6-weeksreally-2495980.html



> October 4, 2012
> 
> *New Rocket Engine Uses &#8220;Dilithium Crystals,&#8221; Cut Time to Mars From 6 Months to 6 Weeks&#8230;Really*
> Brace yourselves: Researchers at University of Huntsville in Alabama say they are using &#8220;Dilithium Crystals&#8221; in a new fusion impulse engine that could cut the travel time to Mars down to as little as six weeks, not the six months it takes now.
> ...


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## JeffreyD (Dec 27, 2006)

Paumon said:


> Heh heh. I don't understand a lot about science but I know a lot about quartz and its uses including technological uses. It's amazing what's being done with it these days. :happy2:
> 
> But speaking of dilithium, and I'm talking about real dilithium (Li2), did you know about this?
> 
> http://beforeitsnews.com/opinion-co...s-from-6-months-to-6-weeksreally-2495980.html


Ain't technology something! I can't wait for some of this stuff to be available for commercial use.

At least for now, we have linear Aerospike rocket engines! Their very cool!


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## JeffreyD (Dec 27, 2006)

jeffreyd said:


> ain't technology something! I can't wait for some of this stuff to be available for commercial use.
> 
> At least for now, we have linear aerospike rocket engines! Their very cool!


I worked on the LASER(put an Aerospike on the back of an SR71 for testing) and X33 projects for Lockheed. Truly awesome for a techno geek! We had built an X33 and the facility to test and launch it at Edwards Air Forces Base and the China Lake Weapons Station.


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## JeffreyD (Dec 27, 2006)

Sadly, this sign, some carbon prepreg and some paycheck stubs is all i have left! Bad picture, next to the sign is my radio active walking stick i found in Bandon Oregon last year. I guess it came from Japan!


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## unregistered358967 (Jul 17, 2013)

My SO grew up right off of China Lake. It looks to be a pretty area.


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## arabian knight (Dec 19, 2005)

clovis said:


> That must explain our stellar sales for the entire months of December and January.


 Well a few spots may be doing good but that is not what is happening throughout the country. And when reported like this come out. U.S. consumer spending in December weakest since 2009.


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## unregistered168043 (Sep 9, 2011)

I think TPTB are very good at getting you to worry that THEIR gravy train might end.

If you have to pay less for fuel, and less for things that are transported then you are better off. Period.


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## arabian knight (Dec 19, 2005)

Crude is up 7 bucks a barrel from just last week. 51.15	+1.58


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## mmoetc (Oct 9, 2012)

arabian knight said:


> Well a few spots may be doing good but that is not what is happening throughout the country. And when reported like this come out. U.S. consumer spending in December weakest since 2009.


Consumers spent considerably less on gas and other energy, groceries and big trucks. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/do...rop-in-consumer-spending-yet-2015-02-02?rss=1. Since I'm spend half of what I was a year ago on gas and I haven't heard any one wailing about $5 propane this year a drop in spending must be bad? The interesting good news is that savings seem to have gone up. Maybe Americans can learn.


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## mmoetc (Oct 9, 2012)

arabian knight said:


> Crude is up 7 bucks a barrel from just last week. 51.15	+1.58


And still almost half of what it was a year ago. http://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2014/02/crude-oil-price-feb-3-2014/28169


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## arabian knight (Dec 19, 2005)

> The long-term future of the nationâs electric grid is under threat from an unlikely sourceâenergy-conserving Americans.
> 
> That is the fear of some utility experts who say that as Americans use less power, electric companies wonât have the revenue needed to maintain sprawling networks of high-voltage lines and generating plants.
> 
> And if the companies raise rates too high to make up for declining sales volumes, customers will embrace even more energy-saving gizmos and solar panels, pushing down demand for grid power. The Edison Electric Institute, the trade group for investor-owned utilities, has warned that they could face a âdeath spiral.â


 And these cutbacks and less spending has a doubled edge sword.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/energy-pinching-americans-pose-threat-to-power-grid/ar-AA8UuxL


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## mmoetc (Oct 9, 2012)

arabian knight said:


> And these cutbacks and less spending has a doubled edge sword.
> 
> http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/energy-pinching-americans-pose-threat-to-power-grid/ar-AA8UuxL


Not to worry. Your rates will go up soon. I'm sure that will make you happier.


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## arabian knight (Dec 19, 2005)

Look at what is up and what is down in spending. Not the durable goods at all things like eating out, healthcare, INSURANCE are all UP.


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## mmoetc (Oct 9, 2012)

arabian knight said:


> Look at what is up and what is down in spending. Not the durable goods at all things like eating out, healthcare, INSURANCE are all UP.


The three of the four largest drivers of the drop can be tied to lower energy costs. The two largest are energy costs and the scope of their drop dwarfs any movement, up or down, in any other sector. Restaurant and hotel spending are up. Is it more important for the economy that some of that money not spent in the gas tank is spent at the local diner or on another imported flat screen?


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## Paumon (Jul 12, 2007)

arabian knight said:


> Crude is up 7 bucks a barrel from just last week. 51.15 +1.58


Yep. Price of gasoline here started going back up again 2 days ago, there was a 40 cents per gallon increase just overnight last night. I imagine it will keep on creeping upwards by 2 or 3 pennies per day from now on.

I really don't expect the lower prices to last for more than another 2 or 3 months and then it'll all be back up to the same prices that it was at last summer.


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## AmericanStand (Jul 29, 2014)

watcher said:


> Good idea but it has its own problems. Cost pops to mind first. Its going to cost a lot to build all these extra batteries just to have them sitting around waiting.
> 
> Others such as where do you put these stations? How many batteries per location? How do you get the electric system upgraded to handle the extra power demand? Are the packs small enough you could do a road side replacement when someone tries to squeeze out a few extra miles out of their pack and doesn't make it to the station?
> 
> I see electric cars being PART of the answer but until something huge happens in the tech I don't see them being able to replace a large section of the oil fired vehicle sector.


The key to eliminating all these problems is charging while driving. Its not real hard to build the charger into the highway . Not even real expensive.
Imagine if all our interstates had this system. Then the on board battery would only have to handle the portion from the highway to the destination. it could be smaller and lighter. Add in a very small onboard charger and you have a pair of suspenders to go with that belt

But I certainly have to agree with your last line!


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