# The End Of The World As We Know It?



## AngieM2 (May 10, 2002)

I've been thinking of how we always have spells and posts of talking about the end of the world as we know it. Since this is such a relative term, I'm wondering if this Economic mess/reset/mess is not an end to the way we know our world? or End Of The World As We Know It?

Since I have absolutley NO idea as to how the state of things will be even next week, I don't know what to expect except probably everything costing significantly more. Sorta inflation on steriods.

I know, I'm shelfing hopes and dreams of a land place of my own, for the next year or more - just getting everythign I can paid off, then I'll save more and see how things are after my certain bills are paid off.

I'm considering where I live. And part of my survivial mindset is, my next door neighbor - we watch out for our portion of the little mobile home park, and each other. (food, grass cutting, repairing clothes, making sure anyone that comes down at this dead end has a reason to be here, etc). Also, where I live, I can go to work for 10 days on one gas tank of gas with a few errands thrown in.

So, I'm fiscally pulling in, staying home more, using my fabric stash for my addiction to sewing and fabrics. 

Is this a type of TEOWAWKI for you? Cause tomorrow sure looks different from yesterday.

Angie


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## Alice Kramden (Mar 26, 2008)

Sent you a PM!


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## sgl42 (Jan 20, 2004)

These economic problems are what I've been expecting for the last 5 yrs, and started physical preps (vs financial preps) for about 2 yrs ago. 

it won't be the end of the world, but the next 20 yrs are not likely to be like the last 20 yrs. 

there's still an open question on whether we have high inflation/hyperinflation, or we have deflation. It will be very painful both ways, but who suffers is very different. (In high inflation, debtors & speculators are rewarded, and savers are punished; in deflation, savers are rewarded) 

The 700 billion bailout is an attempt to create inflation so we don't have deflation. i expect there will be lots larger attempts in the near future. Bill Gross, largest bond fund manager in the country (maybe the world) is already saying we need an additional $500 billion. Marc Faber says he expects bailouts to total $5 trillion. That will create a wee bit of inflation.

But the political uncertainty, likely police-state mentality, and social strife are the real problems that result from the economic problems. I can protect myself from inflation fairly well, but that becomes much harder if they institute exchange controls, rationing of food/gas, institute new taxes, outlaw holding gold, etc.

but, to answer your original question as I understand it -- my view is this be TEOTWAWKI
--sgl


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## Cyngbaeld (May 20, 2004)

Getting out of debt and saving is good. Sometimes I will see how long I can last without spending anything and how creative I can be with what I have to save up for something special.

No matter how bad things get, it will be an uneven "bad". Some folks will hardly notice while others will be hit hard. Make your wants small and they will be easier to supply.


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## Callieslamb (Feb 27, 2007)

TEOFWAIKI started with the culture wars- people no longer valuing honesty, hard work, service, gratitude. When parents have to spend so much time watching out for their children's physical saftey - can't even let them ride their bikes down the street anymore. We don't allow our DS to play inside the neighbor's house. It is a different world than the one I knew growing up.


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## InHisName (Jan 26, 2006)

what is teofwaiki?


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## mezzogirl (May 25, 2008)

Callieslamb,
I couldn't agree with you more. My husband and I have now made it our personal mission to fellowship with our neighbors and build community in our subdivision. In tough times, we may have to "lean" on them and all work together as a team. That can be pretty scary to think about when at this current time we don't even want our kids inside their house.


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## soulsurvivor (Jul 4, 2004)

http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/TEOTWAWKI


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## Seagrape (Aug 4, 2008)

Yes, indeed, this really is TEOTWAWKI. 

Things are speeding up and changing on an almost daily basis. While these changes may not be felt immediately at a personal and local level, one is best advised to prepare for what is likely to be, at best, an uncertain future. Those who take charge now and plan for their own future will be the ones who best survive and those who depend on "the government" will be SOL.


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## Chuck-prime (Jul 24, 2007)

AngieM2 said:


> I've been thinking of how we always have spells and posts of talking about the end of the world as we know it. Since this is such a relative term, I'm wondering if this Economic mess/reset/mess is not an end to the way we know our world? or End Of The World As We Know It?
> 
> Since I have absolutley NO idea as to how the state of things will be even next week, I don't know what to expect except probably everything costing significantly more. Sorta inflation on steriods.
> 
> ...



It's going to go by way of Ancient Egypt. As in the time of Joseph.


When you have the One-World Ruler, then you'll know it's bad. 

It'll be the time of the golden rule. _He who owns the gold - and the wheat - rules._


Right now, think of it as our standing before the abyss. We're barely into the 1st inning. 



Sorry for the downer. 
.
.


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## mnn2501 (Apr 2, 2008)

InHisName said:


> what is teofwaiki?


The End Of The World As We Know It


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## stanb999 (Jan 30, 2005)

AngieM2 said:


> I've been thinking of how we always have spells and posts of talking about the end of the world as we know it. Since this is such a relative term, I'm wondering if this Economic mess/reset/mess is not an end to the way we know our world? or End Of The World As We Know It?
> 
> Since I have absolutley NO idea as to how the state of things will be even next week, I don't know what to expect except probably everything costing significantly more. Sorta inflation on steriods.
> 
> ...


Angie, don't start worrying too much just yet. 
The Mantra "It's the economy stupid" is getting blown up. It's about time. We simple folks make the economy not the Wall street fat cats. They are parasites on the system. 

Hang in there.


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## ceresone (Oct 7, 2005)

well, since I'm into my 70's, a baby born in the depression, I remember WW2, Vietnam, Korea, etc-- I think the End Of The World as We KNEW It started the day the planes flew into the Towers.


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## soulsurvivor (Jul 4, 2004)

I'm not far behind you ceresone, and I fully agree with your observation.


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## bowdonkey (Oct 6, 2007)

It's not the end, it's a new beginning. It could be a change for the worse or better, depending on how we respond. If the economy goes south, those that stick together and build commuinity will have the best chance. My only fear is the same festering scabs on societys butt will be there to take the reins again.


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## stranger (Feb 24, 2008)

Isn't everyday TEOTWAWKI? everyday prices go up, everyday jobs are lost, everyday there is another conflict in the world, everyday there is another crisis,everyday there is another death or birth,divorce,marriage in most families, the weather in either hotter or colder.
TEOTWAWKI will start when and if a full blown depression hits the world, I also have seen everything that ceresone has seen, my childhood may have been better or worse, i don't know. I don't think there ever will be foreign troops on our soil, but a depression has to come, the bubble has to bust, then and only then will the people see TEOTWAWKI, and then all this talk on the net will be reallity, i think most here don't have a clue about what is comming in their future.


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## Madame (Jan 1, 2003)

Callieslamb said:


> TEOFWAIKI started with the culture wars- people no longer valuing honesty, hard work, service, gratitude. When parents have to spend so much time watching out for their children's physical saftey - can't even let them ride their bikes down the street anymore. We don't allow our DS to play inside the neighbor's house. It is a different world than the one I knew growing up.


I live in a small town and kids play outside all the time. When I lived in a big city, you rarely saw a kid (or a bunch of kids) outside- just wasn't safe.

I don't know if it was that much safer when I was a kid (born in "53) or if my parents just watched over us and we weren't as aware. I do know I was a vigilant parent when my daughter was growing up in that big city.


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## Madame (Jan 1, 2003)

stranger said:


> Isn't everyday TEOTWAWKI? everyday prices go up, everyday jobs are lost, everyday there is another conflict in the world, everyday there is another crisis,everyday there is another death or birth,divorce,marriage in most families, the weather in either hotter or colder.
> TEOTWAWKI will start when and if a full blown depression hits the world, I also have seen everything that ceresone has seen, my childhood may have been better or worse, i don't know. I don't think there ever will be foreign troops on our soil, but a depression has to come, the bubble has to bust, then and only then will the people see TEOTWAWKI, and then all this talk on the net will be reallity, i think most here don't have a clue about what is comming in their future.


Depressions happen in cycles, and I agree that we're due one. I suspect it may soon be global if it isn't already...I sponsor children in Bolivia and Kenya and both countries are having hard times. 

I think folks at this forum are better prepared than some.


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## Karen (Apr 17, 2002)

It sure seems like if this isn't it, we're heading in that direction at pretty fast clip. I just can't see how we hang on much longer. 

Our government going into such massive debt (they have to borrow the $700 billion for the baleout), the falling US dollar, plus with our dependence on other countries for oil who can (and will eventually) hold us hostage on that issue; I can't see how we can continue and expect to not suffer a very severe freefall that could take decades (if ever) to restore.

Not to mention that all of this could be the perfect storm for democracy to also end as we know it now.


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## texican (Oct 4, 2003)

Imho, there are many roads to "TEO"... Some fast, hard, and ugly, some slow, soft, and surprisingly pretty. 

If the paper credit market were to collapse, business would cease. A free for all would ensue for a few hours or a few days... It'd be the ultimate WYSIWYG situation. What's in Wallys or the Feedstore at that moment in time would all there'd ever be again.

A credit collapse would be a soft road to TEOTWAWKI...


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## NickieL (Jun 15, 2007)

Scary. I Like the way life is around here.......I don't want this TEOTWAWKI to happen. I like power and being able to run to the store for something.


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## AngieM2 (May 10, 2002)

Nickie - don't let us scare you and you stop coming down to the forum.
You do understand that having a baby or getting married or winning a lottery is The End Of The World As You Knew It.

So, while I'm very concerned about everything happening on the news right now - The End is relative.

Angie


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## sgl42 (Jan 20, 2004)

a credit seize up doesn't destroy anything physical, at least not directly, it just changes ownership. sorting out the ownership might take some time, but won't last forever. Most firms in bankruptcy continue to operate.

while the uncertainty of whether you get paid might prevent shipments of goods for a while, to say "What's in Wallys or the Feedstore at that moment in time would all there'd ever be again" is I think an overstatement.

Not saying there wouldn't be an incredible amount of pain and confusion, but exaggeration doesn't help anyone react in a reasonable fashion.

Things might be destroyed indirectly, as no one's taking care of them. Eg, empty foreclosed houses can be vandalized, or have pipes break, and be destroyed, so sorting out ownership can indirectly destroy property. There are analogs for businesses too, where some businesses might be hard to restart after an interruption of service. But retailers selling neccessary goods aren't likely to disappear forever. Some entire chains might close, chains might close some of their unprofitable stores, product variety may decrease, prices may be higher, service may be poorer. But I doubt there will never again be grocery stores. 

The power grid still has all the transformers and wires out there, billions if not trillions of infrastructure, still there. The price may rise to cover the costs of oil and coal, and they'll have higher service cutoff rates for non-payment. And over time they'll skimp on maintenance to save money, making the system less reliable. But it's not going to suddenly go down and stay down forever, just due to financial gibberish.

Financially, one of the problems is the businesses that didn't go crazy, will have their competitors businesses sold for pennies on the dollar, giving the new owner a much lower cost basis. Eg, I read an S&L crisis anecdote about a shopping mall that was sold for 20 cents on the dollar, and then the new owner set rents at 20% of what the mall that didn't go bankrupt could afford.

As all this chaos goes on, the stock market isn't likely to be selling at 20 times earnings. Pensions will become more underfunded. More cities will declare bankruptcy. Residential house prices aren't likely to rise in inflation adjusted terms. 

People will realize they aren't "rich" anymore. As businesses and consumers figure out that they're not at rich as they thought they were, they'll cut back on purchases. Descretionary purchases will be hurt -- nail salons, fast-food restaurants,... 

So, lots will change, some of it quickly, some of it more gradually. There will still be stock markets in the world, and the power grid, and grocery stores. But it will be more dreary. Compare flying today (long lines, security searches, delays, poor food, surly service) with flying back in the 1980 or 90's, when it was pleasant, edible food, fewer delays usually due to major weather storms. Expect this degredation across every sort of business.

--sgl


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## Karen (Apr 17, 2002)

Sgl, economics doesn't work that way. Texican is absolutely right! There is domino effect that will begin *the moment *it all starts falling apart. 

No the lights won't immediately go out, but the trucks will stop running because we will see oil prices that will make today's prices look like chump change (oil prices will be among the very first prices to sky rocket). Mainly because the US dollar will go into a freefall and Opec will be demanding payment in Euro - of which our dollar can't buy.

Farmers won't be able to afford to run their equipment to feed the nation - let alone livestock in the middle of winter.

It is a bad thing if businesses start shutting down. It raises unemployment, devalues real estate, and again, it has a domino effect on other businesses that a person wouldn't even begin to think of as being related to the business that just went out.

You're going to see people panic; there will be a run on the banks, the gas pumps, and yes, Wally World -- which can't get goods to sell.

I don't think the average Joe on the street understands how serious these next few days and weeks are going be. I'm optimistic it will all hold together, but this could very well be total financial collapse. It's the closest we've ever come in all of US history.

Even the US treasury is declaring it financial Armageddon and they never admit to anything being wrong with the economy. This is the most serious time the US has ever faced. It's a hundred times worst than either depression. This time, it's not just a depression; but rather the total collapse of the US dollar. It isn't that no one will have any money; rather that you could be a millionaire and your money couldn't buy you a loaf of bread.


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## seedspreader (Oct 18, 2004)

I think sgl has shown to understand economics fairly well. If you actually study modern crashes (ie Russian economy collapse) I think that sgl has a good, accurate, possible scenario.

We won't see zombie hordes, blackouts, etc. in an economic failure. What we will see is a total world change and freedoms disappear because "we the people" will accept almost anything to keep the lights and tv on.


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## bowdonkey (Oct 6, 2007)

So that little disclaimer on the 401's, IRA's, mutual funds etc, that says something about the possibility of losing the money may be true after all.


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## uyk7 (Dec 1, 2002)

> If the paper credit market were to collapse, business would cease.


Businesses won't cease to exist. Many will disappear, some will be able to switch to a barter type system for awhile (esp. smaller/local companies), and some of the larger companies that survive will buy up the failed companies. Society in general and businesses in particular will demand something be done to create a new money system (can you say Amero?).


.


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## Razorback21 (May 13, 2003)

I think comparisons to the great depression are a little off the mark. With what we are facing currently, it will probably be like the Argentine crisis of 2001, where real GDP fell four years in a row and deflation of the currency occurred. It won't be pretty, no matter the outcome.


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## stanb999 (Jan 30, 2005)

Razorback21 said:


> I think comparisons to the great depression are a little off the mark. With what we are facing currently, it will probably be like the Argentine crisis of 2001, where real GDP fell four years in a row and deflation of the currency occurred. It won't be pretty, no matter the outcome.


That can't happen here.... We are the US of A. 

I think the real situation will be a combo of the above list...

Currancy falling but not collapsing. 
Shipping slowing but not stopping.
Fuel prices increasing but not explosivly. 
Crop failures but not total.
Banking becoming limited to the best of credit.



So the country is going through a bad time... It will work it's self out.
Come on people this is why we prep!!!! To smooth out the rough spots.


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## diane (May 4, 2002)

IMO we could well see events unfold that will make us very grateful we prepped and got out of debt. The fiber of our cozy blanket is coming unraveled faster than it can be mended. Not only that but it is being mended bit by bit with heavy chains rather than soft fiber. Interesting times we are living in. This isn't Kansas and I have no ruby slippers.


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## mamita (May 19, 2008)

Karen said:


> Sgl, economics doesn't work that way. Texican is absolutely right! There is domino effect that will begin *the moment *it all starts falling apart.
> 
> No the lights won't immediately go out, but the trucks will stop running because we will see oil prices that will make today's prices look like chump change (oil prices will be among the very first prices to sky rocket). Mainly because the US dollar will go into a freefall and Opec will be demanding payment in Euro - of which our dollar can't buy.
> 
> ...


my thoughts...EXACTLY. having many discussions about it with those that are economic majors...........don't run and panic about grabbing your money from any given bank. because...in a true financial collapse........you could have all the money in the universe, yet......what are you going to buy??? sorry..but your money would be worthless. soo sad, but soo true. and I also see things improving. HOWEVER...it WILL take awhile. which is why those of us that prep are at least taking the steps to 'tide our families' over during these trying times. it isn't 'tin foil thinking' people........it's reality. be prepared, be cautious, be wary, and IF..IF...you find yourself all gloriously stocked with food and such when the economy recoups........well, BLESS YOU. in ANY economy...a stocked pantry is a GOOD thing. but all dire things take time to correct...so stay prepped for that 'tide' we'll all be riding on.


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## claytonpiano (Feb 3, 2005)

Interesting talking with financial guru friends this past week. One man, came within 45 minutes of pulling all of his money out of everything and converting to gold, silver, or tangibles. I would love to give his name, but won't do that out of respect. 

Another, keeps saying, there are no rules now. All bets are off. 

Another, says the only hope is to ride this out knowing that the America we knew will never be the same. His fear is the socialism that will result after this bailout is passed. As a financial adviser and investor, he believes that democracy as we knew it will be over.

A 4th friend, former VP of a failed bank, knows that his retirement is gone, his house will soon be gone, but also knows that his background is a strong work ethic. His comment was that I started a career 40 years ago and I may have to do it again.

I think all of us on this forum have the "can do" attitude. We'll survive, but it is time for our flexibility to kick in big time. We need to be thinking about bartering and paying everything off as fast as possible. Debt free never hurt anyone when a financial crisis appears. 

Finally, most of us have been storing like Joseph for awhile now. We bought still more wheat last week. I'm not set for life by any means and am worried about getting my soil improved enough for really great gardens, but I'm working on it as fast as I can. 

It is TEOTWAWKI financially. We can't get around the rotten business practices of both our government and greedy banks. We can, however, position ourselves as well as possible. We can exercise our rights as much as possible over the next few months before they melt away. That includes voting for the candidates of our choice. I know most folks think that the presidential election is crucial. However, I'm more concerned about Congress. What happened to morals and common sense in this country? I'm also concerned about the local government officials. We need folks who will stand up to whoever gets in the White House.

Please don't turn this last paragraph into a General Chat type item. I'm not pushing anyone running for office in it. We just must do all that we can before the rights that our found fathers gave to us melt away before our eyes.


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## Razorback21 (May 13, 2003)

claytonpiano said:


> Another, keeps saying, there are no rules now. All bets are off.
> 
> I think all of us on this forum have the "can do" attitude. We'll survive, but it is time for our flexibility to kick in big time. We need to be thinking about bartering and paying everything off as fast as possible. Debt free never hurt anyone when a financial crisis appears.
> 
> ...


Claytonpiano,
Sorry for pasting so much of your thread, but much of what you said leads to point I want to make. I do not want to push anyone in particular for public office, but I ask...why do we just vote Dem or Repub? In Football, when you have a losing team, you fire the coach. We have had Democrats and Republicans, I say fire them and put in Independents and Third Party candidates. Give someone else a shot. Nothing screams independence and freedom more than voting outside the traditional parties. 

For the record, on my financial forums, I get the "me" attitude when it comes to talking about our financial crisis today with others. It is comforting to know that I can come here and read about everyday people like those you included in your post. Besides hillbillies like me are more welcome on this forum than those Wall Street forums!!!!! lol. Thank you.


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## sgl42 (Jan 20, 2004)

Karen said:


> Sgl, economics doesn't work that way. Texican is absolutely right! There is domino effect that will begin *the moment *it all starts falling apart.
> 
> No the lights won't immediately go out, *but the trucks will stop running because we will see oil prices that will make today's prices look like chump change* (oil prices will be among the very first prices to sky rocket). Mainly because the US dollar will go into a freefall and Opec will be demanding payment in Euro - of which our dollar can't buy.


Really? You're saying every truck in the US will stop running? Not a single one will keep making deliveries? 

Please reread what I wrote. I didn't say there would be no pain. I agree there would be a ripple effect, and said so. The specific comment I disagreed with Texican on is bolded below:



sgl42 said:


> while the uncertainty of whether you get paid might prevent shipments of goods for a while, to say *"What's in Wallys or the Feedstore at that moment in time would all there'd ever be again"* is I think an overstatement.
> 
> Not saying there wouldn't be an incredible amount of pain and confusion, but exaggeration doesn't help anyone react in a reasonable fashion.


Really? Not a Wally World ever has another truck delivery? Not in 3 days? Not in 3 weeks? Not in 3 months? Not in 3 years? That every single grocery store across the entire country will sell out their current stock, and never ever be replenished again? *Ever*! Puh-lease!

I agree *some* trucks will stop rolling, but *ALL* trucks will not stop rolling. If before the break-even value of a truckload of merchandise was $100,000, maybe it goes to $200-300k. Maybe $1 million. Many long distance and low value loads won't be worthwhile anymore, but trucks will still roll if they carry a worthwhile enough load. We won't be shipping kiwi fruit from new zealand as much, and it won't be 3 for a $1 if they do. We won't be shipping toilet paper from Seattle to Miami by truck. But trucks with some merchadise will still roll. 

Before you may have had 3 stores within 10 miles. In the future you may have a single store 35 miles away. It may have fewer selections, and be out of stock more often than in the past. But there will still be deliveries. 

And all this will be very painful for many people. But to say there will *never* be another truck delivery to *any* store is a gross exaggeration, and more likely to incite the panic you say you're trying to avoid.

The demand destruction will occur with the low wage workers that used to drive 30 miles for their daily work shift in an SUV. Some of the demand destruction will occur in developing countries. But a truck carrying $1 million dollars worth of machine parts, or food, or gasoline, will still run. Warren Buffett and Bill Gates will probably still fly around in their private planes when they have the need; they're not going to be saddling up a horse to mosey on down to Iowa to barter with a farmer for corn because the trucks have "stopped rolling".

As for the value of the dollar, this is far trickier, and there's lots of bright people with opposing views. 

I believe the $700 Billion bailout would have made the dollar go down faster. Printing new money destroys the value of the already outstanding paper thru inflation. By not passing the bill, I think our currency is likely to hold it's value better.

China owned a huge amount of Fannie & Freddie debt. Had we not had the gov't explicitly guarantee that debt, they may have sold their entire $1.8 Trillion reserves, or simply refused to buy new bonds. Either would have an affect on the exchange rate.

--sgl


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## Beaners (Feb 23, 2005)

Sgl, how would you feel about the prospect of stores being unable to purchase goods to stock their shelves because they have no money to do it with. They don't have the money to do it because they have been using loans to purchase stock and make payroll, and then paying that back when they get a return on the goods. Not saying it is how I would do it, but it is how it is done.

Look at how the banks are tightening up the credit they give out. I think the bigger places may last a little longer just because they have more money to float around (Walmart) but some of the smaller stores playing the same game could go out.

I don't think that the trucks will stop tomorrow forever, but I do think that it could be much more immediate and severe than you anticipate. I completely agree with you regarding electricity, BTW.

Kayleigh


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## Callieslamb (Feb 27, 2007)

InHisName said:


> what is teofwaiki?


sorry, I missed this thread - 'the end of the world as I know it.'


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## DianeWV (Feb 1, 2007)

Well, it seems we are in quite a pickle. I sure don't have a clue what the end results will be to this mess. No one has the answer.

But on a brighter note.......maybe the savers of this country will be rewarded again with healthier, higher interest rates on their saving accounts/cds/other interest bearing accounts. Isn't it about time that people who chose to save money throughout the years reap a little more benefit now?

So, all those high-flyers with plastic may be flying low or grounded. Just maybe people with a little savings can start flying again. It's their turn. 

Just maybe, saving money will become fashionable again!


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## AngieM2 (May 10, 2002)

and everyone go find your senator's web page and email them your comments. It's the only way to keep our wishes known and maybe followed.

Angie


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## sgl42 (Jan 20, 2004)

******* said:


> Sgl, how would you feel about the prospect of stores being unable to purchase goods to stock their shelves because they have no money to do it with. [....]
> 
> I don't think that the trucks will stop tomorrow forever, but I do think that it could be much more immediate and severe than you anticipate. I completely agree with you regarding electricity, BTW.


I agree there may well be a temporary interruption in some or even many store's ability to purchase new products. And I agree it could hit suddenly and severely. But it won't be "forever". 

It might last for a few days or weeks, and the supply chain would be wobbly for weeks maybe months after that as well, similar to what's happing right now with gasoline in the south east in the wake of Ike. 

And physically, unlike a hurricane that destroys buildings and trucks and inventory, all those things are still there with a credit crunch, it's just a matter of who owns them, which might take a while to sort out.

My point is, how much should you panic about the banking system? If trucks stop rolling "forever", then you need 10 yrs worth of food plus a huge garden. If trucks might be interrupted for days or weeks, then 6 months if probably good for sleeping well at night. 

If a newby just started lurking here, and is already feeling overwhelmed, will telling them "the trucks stop rolling forever" motivate them to prep, or make them feel hopeless? 

I *do* believe that our problems are serious. However, I also believe very strongly that speaking as accurately as possible, without hyperbole, is the best way to keep our wits about us, understand how things are interconnected, and what the real risks are, so we can properly prepare, and convince/persuede others on a plan of action.

--sgl


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## PhilJohnson (Dec 24, 2006)

My thoughts on this is that we are going to wind experiencing a Soviet Russian style collapse. Sure there was electricity, some food, and fuel, but it still stunk big time and was even deadly for some people. But unlike the now recovering Russian bear we don't have anything of any real value to export. I think maybe someday we'll recover when China and Russia start outsourcing jobs to take advantage of cheap US labor. It isn't the end of the world just the end of the convenient and comfortable world.


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## texican (Oct 4, 2003)

After the fall of this system, another one will arise. Barter is a great system, but inequities will weed out certain services some folks hold dear.

A person who makes shoes will find their market eventually... for a while, a 'professional' will find it hard to part with an equitable amount of time, just for a pair of shoes. (shoes can be found for less than 20$ 'now')... once their shoes wear out, a cobbler will find his customers. Problem is, what will a 'professional' white collar worker have to trade? A cobbler is providing a needed service. Will the cobbler need an actuarial service? Or an accountant?

About the only thing I can't fix, build, or jury rig is the very items that won't really exist in the 'new world'. The folks with money, that can afford my services now, would have a difficult time hiring me in the 'new world', as they have almost zero in the bartering department, both goods and skills (HA! as if having money is a skill!) I don't need slaves... sometimes I think it'd be nice, but you have to feed em, clothe em, and find some room in the barn... face it, a lot of people (and I in no way mean this in a racial way) have no skills at all, and if the world collapsed, the only skill they'd have would be mindless work, like pulling weeds...

And, eventually, the feed store would reopen, I can envision... more as a general store, with human and animal feed, a limited list of imported items (or bartered goods)... some apothecary stock... a general trade center.

Everyone will be a farmer, for a few years... those that aren't will find eating regularly difficult.


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## seedspreader (Oct 18, 2004)

Nah, we have too many big guns and nuclear bombs to fire off before then.

Russian collapse scenario... yup, it's possible.

"The Postman"... not yet. Maybe after the big guns and nuclear bombs... but a financial collapse ain't going to do it.


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## Michael Kawalek (Jun 21, 2007)

To go off on a little tangent, I'd suggest reading Gordon Dickson's book "Wolf and Iron". "_The U. S. has been devastated by worldwide financial collapse. Civilization as readers know it has disappeared. Marauding bands are terrorizing the countryside, killing and looting. Jeremy Bellamy Walthers' goal is to cross 2,000 miles of ravaged countryside to reach the security of his brother's Montana ranch. En route he befriends a wolf who becomes a partner and companion via verbal and nonverbal communication. The story deals with Jeremy's interaction with the wolf and the other human survivors of the economic collapse. _"

The story starts out with a bank collapse, looking very much like what we are seeing today. It has a plausible central premise. Once credit becomes difficult to obtain, stores have problems making bulk purchases, shortages occur, truckers can't buy fuel to deliver goods. A domino effect causes a downward spiral into the real economy. 

There are starting to be reports of how that effects the real world. This morning on the radio they were telling a story about a couple trying to upgrade their kitchen. They made their order with their local store but couldn't go forward with the project because of tightening credit. They weren't approved and had to shelve the project. Shortly thereafter, their agent said that turned out to be a good thing, because the company they were going to purchase kitchen compenents from just declared bankruptcy! If you see these events repeated throughout the country in every commercial field you could very much have an tipping point that triggers a "Wolf and Iron" event!
Michael


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## Razorback21 (May 13, 2003)

I agree that life will change abruptly, but what I see is a "no credit" economy similar to the Depression. The status symbol may be the 8HP rear tyne tiller instead of a golf club or speed boat. Businesses based on credit will dry up overnight (payday loans, etc.). One vehicle families, status items like Stereos, Stainless Steel Kitchens and what not are things of the past.

What this scenario will create is a lot of small businesses. Some will succeed, some will fail, but the emphasis will be more local in a no credit economy.

Texican, you are right about people with non-transferable skills in the new economy. What is worse is that actuary or accountant may find it beneath him or her to pull weeds.

At the risk of sounding cocky, I think people like us on this board may turn in to the "professional" people of our towns, because we know how to grow food and in this day and age, that is a lost art. If you own land and can grow food, you have the ulitmate commodity in a no credit world.


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## wildwanderer (Mar 2, 2004)

Gordon Dickson's book "Wolf and Iron". 

That was my first peek into the idea that the world is not as stable as the tv said it was, I was blown away at the idea that everything would fall apart in the teenager I was when I read it. But it has helped me learn enough to realize I am worried, I don't know what will happen. Economics is one thing, but how the humans respond to whatever happens is more important. How long until people riot, attack others and beg, steal or kill for what they want worries me more?

I just don't know what is going to happen, and at times I don't know that I would want to know... we are going down a slippery slope and I have read and worried and now I want practical advise. 

I have a small pantry, with a decent job that will be one of the last type to be eliminated. I have a family group to fall back with and we have some ability to be self sufficient just wonder what I should do to help my family right NOW as we balance in between the possibles.

Thanks everyone - Thea


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## Hip_Shot_Hanna (Apr 2, 2005)

TEOTWAWKI, 
Inflation 
that is what will end it as we know it , 
last year i paid $5 .50 a sack for fertiliser , today it's $27.50 a sack , thats 
500% increase


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## ACountryMomma (Aug 10, 2008)

Wow! That is shocking. 

I know, since last year, our feed has gone up maybe 70%, hay 100%, every item from the grocery has gone up 50-100% Cost of husband's meds are up, too.

But 500%! Wow!


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## Cyngbaeld (May 20, 2004)

Hanna, you need to learn to do accounting the way the .gov does! That was ONLY a .2% increase! LOL


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## texican (Oct 4, 2003)

If most of the trucks stop running, I'll bet you my favorite hawgleg that the handful of trucks that are moving will not have only one person on board... more'n likely they'll never stop, and there'll be a couple hands on board with some heavy duty firepower. The trucks will have 'large' cowcatcher bumpers.

I can envision road agents, again, once law and order breaks down.


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