# Hurricane IKE



## Guest (Sep 1, 2008)

The Hurricane Conveyor is working overtime this year. This one will be Ike if he develops enough.










http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/011443.shtml
000
WTNT34 KNHC 011443
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM AST MON SEP 01 2008

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS HALF WAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF THE NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE
39.5 WEST OR ABOUT 1470 MILES...2365 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A
GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...17.6 N...39.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA










Ever get the feeling we live in a shooting gallery?

.....Alan.


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## AngieM2 (May 10, 2002)

thanks Alan -
I heard about this one earlier today, but was hoping you'd put up one of your maps for tracking it.

Thank you.

Angie


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## Cyngbaeld (May 20, 2004)

Yep, here comes Ike! Looks like Hannah is getting ready to rake Florida after all.


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## Guest (Sep 1, 2008)

Didn't waste any time, did he?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/012041.shtml
000
WTNT34 KNHC 012041
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM AST MON SEP 01 2008

...IKE...THE NINTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON...FORMS OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF THE NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
STORM IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.6
WEST OR ABOUT 1400 MILES...2250 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND IKE 
COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN DAY OR TWO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...17.7 N...40.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

September has historically been the worst hurricane month for us here in NC.
We could really use the rain, but I'm hoping it wont be accompanied by too much wind.

We're hosting 4 people from Biloxi MS here now, so I hope we dont have to follow them back to their place!


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## tyusclan (Jan 1, 2005)

Bump.


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## unregistered29228 (Jan 9, 2008)

Ike looks to be a big hurricane, it's a Cat 3 tonight. But hopefully will spare the USA. However, how much can Cuba, Haiti, Dominican Republic endure?


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## Guest (Sep 4, 2008)

Angie,

When you get a chance would you retitle this thread to HURRICANE IKE please?

.....Alan.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/041433.shtml

000
WTNT34 KNHC 041433
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM AST THU SEP 04 2008

...IKE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...A LITTLE WEAKER...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.0 WEST OR ABOUT 525 MILES... 845 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHAT LAND AREAS MIGHT EVENTUALLY BE AFFECTED BY IKE BUT INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. 

*MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BUT IKE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A POWERFUL HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.*

DATA FROM THE NASA QUIKSCAT SATELLITE INDICATE THAT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 938 MB...27.70 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...23.2 N...57.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/041434.shtml

000
WTNT44 KNHC 041434
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM EDT THU SEP 04 2008

IKE CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A WELL-DEFINED EYE WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TEMPERATURES IN THE EYEWALL. HOWEVER THE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOW ASYMMETRIC DUE TO SOME NORTHERLY SHEAR AFFECTING THE CYCLONE. OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE COME DOWN A LITTLE BIT SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 120 KT. GLOBAL MODELS UNANIMOUSLY INCREASE THE SHEAR OVER IKE AND KEEP STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS NEAR THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS PATTERN SHOULD INDUCE A STEADY WEAKENING. IN ADDITION...INNER- CORE EYEWALL CYCLES COULD OCCUR...WHICH COULD WEAKEN IKE AS WELL. IN THE LONGER-TERM...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX AND SOME STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF IKE...THE HURRICANE COULD BE IMPACTED BY COOLER WATERS NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS THAT HAVE BEEN STIRRED UP BY HANNA. *THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT STILL SHOWS IKE AS A POWERFUL HURRICANE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.*

IKE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...AT ABOUT 290/14...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE. A BEND TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST- SOUTHWEST SEEMS PROBABLE AS A HIGH BUILDS IN TO THE NORTHWEST OF IKE. THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH IS THE BIG QUESTION MARK FOR FIRST PART OF THIS FORECAST WITH THE MODELS BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT. THE MODELS HAVE SPLIT INTO TWO GENERAL CAMPS THIS MORNING. THE UKMET/GFS/HWRF ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO GAIN A LITTLE MORE LATITUDE INITIALLY...THEN SHOW LESS OF A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER ANOTHER GROUP OF MODELS... COMPRISED OF THE NOGAPS/ECMWF/GFDN/GFDL...SHOW A FASTER TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST AND SUGGEST MORE OF A THREAT TO THE BAHAMAS. WITH CREDIBLE MODELS IN EACH GROUP...IT IS PROBABLY BEST TO STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NEAR A BIAS-CORRECTED GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTIES IN 4- AND 5-DAY TRACK FORECASTS...IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WHAT LAND AREAS ARE LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY THIS HURRICANE. HOWEVER INTERESTS IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD BE MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF IKE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/1500Z 23.2N 57.0W 120 KT
12HR VT 05/0000Z 23.8N 58.9W 115 KT
24HR VT 05/1200Z 24.0N 61.3W 110 KT
36HR VT 06/0000Z 23.6N 63.8W 105 KT
48HR VT 06/1200Z 23.0N 66.7W 100 KT
72HR VT 07/1200Z 22.5N 71.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 08/1200Z 23.5N 74.5W 105 KT
120HR VT 09/1200Z 25.5N 77.5W 105 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


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## momanto (Jan 14, 2005)

Well, I Had Planned To Paint My Awning Type Shutters Anyway. Will Leave Them Down Until The Season Is Over. That Is Over The Three Bedrooms. Two Smaller Windows On The Opposite Side Stay Boarded Up Year Round. Makes The Bedrooms Dark And Cooler. Will See If It Saves On The Electric Bill.


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## Guest (Sep 5, 2008)

Bump.

Folks, a big part of Florida is now coned for Ike and he's a major hurricane. Time to get with it if you're not already on top of things.

.....Alan.


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## diane (May 4, 2002)

Alan, keep your powder dry. You folks down there are far braver than me. I would rather have winter than those hurricanes!!


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## Guest (Sep 5, 2008)

Well, we're back to him looking like he may shoot the Straits again. Sigh...

.....Alan.


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## wottahuzzee (Jul 7, 2006)

I'm not gonna start getting excited until Monday, but I sure wish it would make up its mind. I am sitting in the middle of the Straits. The 11 a.m. has him coming right over us. 

I think I would rather have an earthquake. Wham, bam, thank you mam, it's over. Ya still gotta clean up, but you don't have that week before worrying about the darn thing.


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## harplade (Jul 14, 2005)

Looks like he could hit us, and we're just gettin over Gustav!


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## stadiumjumper (May 7, 2007)

Oh, believe me, Ike has developed alright. Just the Question of Where He's gonna hit.......


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## Aintlifegrand (Jun 3, 2005)

harplade said:


> Looks like he could hit us, and we're just gettin over Gustav!


Oh no....I don't think I can take this again....


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## stadiumjumper (May 7, 2007)

Aintlifegrand, were you here for Katrina?? (although Gustav was kindof a Dud compared to Katrina, I still wouldn't want Ike to come)


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## Labrat407 (Aug 24, 2007)

Here is a good site to track with.

Stormpulse


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## Aintlifegrand (Jun 3, 2005)

stadiumjumper said:


> Aintlifegrand, were you here for Katrina?? (although Gustav was kindof a Dud compared to Katrina, I still wouldn't want Ike to come)


I was in La...but not NO...I am northwest of nola...Katrina didn't do any damage.. Rita did because we were on the right side.. Gustav didn't do anything...other than rain and wind...but I worried all weekend.. the tornadoes were on the southeast part of the state thank goodness..The tornadoes are the worst part for me... I am terrified of them..been in two face to face and I am scared of them..


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## ptannjr (Jul 29, 2008)

Just waiting for November for the hurricanes die down for a bit. The rain is good to a point but it could come a little at a time all year, insted of in just a few months and flooding.


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## wottahuzzee (Jul 7, 2006)

MANDATORY EVACS ISSUES FOR FLORIDA KEYS 

Yep I'm yelling. Poop. 

Visitors/tourists out Sat morning. 

Residents out Sun in a phased plan. 

I'm still waiting -- gonna see what it is goind to do. I can deal if it not any worse than Wilma.


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## AngieM2 (May 10, 2002)

Stay safe, and get out - 
Take care and update as you can.

Angie


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## virtualco (Feb 3, 2006)

Well, I have four days to prepare my home and family, as it is likely that a major hurricane will hit my area per the local TV news station. http://www.nbc-2.com/index.shtml

Never a dull September in tropical SW FL. :rainprf:

5pm update: Ike suppose to hit as a CAT 4 hurricane, I am still in the cone of destruction...


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## wottahuzzee (Jul 7, 2006)

If it comes across Key West as a Cat 4, I 've got a FEMA trailer in my future.


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## Guest (Sep 6, 2008)

If Ike really runs much of the length of Cuba overland it's going to tear him up in a big way.

But he's still so far out the predicted track is likely to wander a good bit from what it is today (Saturday afternoon).

.....Alan.


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## radiofish (Mar 30, 2007)

wottahuzzee said:


> I'm not gonna start getting excited until Monday, but I sure wish it would make up its mind. I am sitting in the middle of the Straits. The 11 a.m. has him coming right over us.
> 
> I think I would rather have an earthquake. Wham, bam, thank you mam, it's over. Ya still gotta clean up, but you don't have that week before worrying about the darn thing.


Be very, very, careful what you wish for!!!! Have you ever been in an Earthquake???????? It is not a wham bam thank you ma'am experience, as you posted!!!! You have to ever vigilant 24/7 - 365 days a year, since there are no warnings when an Earthquake will occur with a magnitude of 6.0+.....:help: 

Earthquake insurance for homeowners is not cheap either!!!! That and if you are near the shoreline, then the surf could be up to some huge waves with a Tsunami barreling down on you just minutes after the shaking stops!!!! Remember the Indoneasan Earthquake/ Tsunamis from December 26, 2004??? The local infrastructure will collapse just as easily from Earthquakes, as when the Hurricanes cause damage. 

If I lived in Hurricane alley, I would be hitting the road, as soon as the evacuation warnings were posted for the public/ if not sooner. At least there is a Hurricane season for only part of the year, thus you can let your guard down at times!!!!!


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## wottahuzzee (Jul 7, 2006)

Yes, I have been in earthquakes, 6.7+. I grew up in So. Cali, so been there, done that. Insurance costs? -- In SoFlo, I carry 3 policies -- homeowners, flood, and windstorm -- not cheap. Tsunamis -- If Cumbre Vieja in the Canary Islands ever collapses, we will know tsunamis. Evacuation opens up a whole new can of worms. All one can do is prep, plan, analyze the data, and be ready to take action. 

Anyway, it looks like the track is getting better for SoFlo. It is going further south across Cuba which will hopefully decrease the intensity. I've got my fingers crossed. Waiting for the 8 p.m. update. 

Stay safe all.


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## Cyngbaeld (May 20, 2004)

Cat 4 now and looks like he is aiming for Texas. Hey Alan, you guys stop blowing that thing my way! LOL


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## Guest (Sep 7, 2008)

With the election under way? There's so much huffing and puffing going on now Ike may end up in California! 

.....Alan.


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## AngieM2 (May 10, 2002)

A.T. Hagan said:


> With the election under way? There's so much huffing and puffing going on now Ike may end up in California!
> 
> .....Alan.




Alan :bouncy: I think you're on to something! :happy:

Angie


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## Sheripoms (May 17, 2008)

Wow! Not again. My son just left to go back home last thursday.. I have a bad feeling that this time people won't leave N.O. They are tired of having their lives disrupted. Alot of people spent alot of money getting out of the way of Gustav. Hotels, gas, food, etc... This is the worst of all scenarios. Even Nagin said he did not know if they could get everyone back out of NO this fast right after Gustav. If it heads into the Gulf, everyone including Houston will be freaked out. I have a bad feeling about this one. I guess we will know in a day or two. YIKES


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## galfriend (Nov 19, 2004)

Sheripoms....I agree with you! Gustav has hit a lot of ppl financially. If the need arises to leave again so soon after Gustav I'm worried it will be stranding a lot of folks at home this time, financially unable to leave. 
Our friends have yet to get their electric back on from Gustav. A local post office is running still from use of a generator due to Gustav. Our local gas station just got their tanks re- filled and pumps fixed from this last storm yesterday.
My daughter and I aren't unpacking our get~away stuff from Gustav either! If we could, if Ike heads our direction, we'd love to run away~ but cant run far, lack of fundabilites have hit us here too.

I sure hate any one to get Ike, he sounds like a monster
wottahuzzee?????? Ya still with us? Hope you're safe!


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## wottahuzzee (Jul 7, 2006)

galfriend said:


> I sure hate any one to get Ike, he sounds like a monster
> wottahuzzee?????? Ya still with us? Hope you're safe!



Yeah, we're still here, safe and sound, watching and waiting. Thanks for asking. It appears, at this time, it will be a Cat 1 when it passes us, so I don't think we are leaving at this time. We'll be leaving in the middle of the night if we do leave.


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## StatHaldol (Sep 1, 2006)

I'm in Louisiana. Here are a couple of good hurricane sites that let you see at a glance what's going on during hurricane season.

www.stormpulse.com

www.spaghettimodels.com


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## diane (May 4, 2002)

wottahuzzee said:


> Yeah, we're still here, safe and sound, watching and waiting. Thanks for asking. It appears, at this time, it will be a Cat 1 when it passes us, so I don't think we are leaving at this time. We'll be leaving in the middle of the night if we do leave.


Do you have children with you? I can not imagine gambling with the lives of my children with a monster storm like that barreling down on me. Perhaps by directly hitting Cuba's full length it will weaken by the time it gets to you but I wouldn't count on it diminishing to a CAT 1.


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## JGex (Dec 27, 2005)

Ike is still a long way out from hitting US ground. The Keys are probably not going to get more than a lot of rain, some very gusty winds and a glancing blow if Ike stays on the track he is taking right now over Cuba.

I just told my Mom that unless it makes a direct track for Long Beach, like the eye passing right over, at anything over 130 mph, she's to darned well stay put at my bro's house. Her evacuating/driving in that snarled mess of traffic at her age would be far more dangerous unless it's a Katrina repeat, and we won't know that until Thursday or Friday.


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## wottahuzzee (Jul 7, 2006)

diane said:


> Do you have children with you? I can not imagine gambling with the lives of my children with a monster storm like that barreling down on me. Perhaps by directly hitting Cuba's full length it will weaken by the time it gets to you but I wouldn't count on it diminishing to a CAT 1.


Please, I don't lecture people who live iin blizzard country to drive 600 miles south if a blizzard is forecast. I don't expect people in Kansas to evacuate to Colorado if a tornado outbreak is expected. I don' call CPS on people living in California near or on a fault line, and I don't expect people to stay off beaches because there might be a tsunami. I don't think you meant it as such but I do not appreciate your scolding. I think that sensible people who have lived in an area for a while and know the conditions should be the judge of what is best for their family. Right now, my nonexistent kids are tethered to a palm tree in my yard. When their feet are off the ground for more than 10 seconds, I will know we have reached tropical storm conditions. 

Thankfully, we will only be getting TS conditions, I am praying for whoever this storm does hit. Watching all the storm coverage and checking all the models yesterday, I said this thing is going south of Cuba and then to Mexico, but we still put up the yard stuff and boarded the windows. 

So stay safe all.


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## AngieM2 (May 10, 2002)

wottahuzzee - on those kids tied to the trees, do you have to put a kite tail on them so they fly very well in the winds?


I know that the Hurricane, or even big Tropical Storm would scare me some, and I live in the Tornado Alley of TN Valley. I guess your sustained winds and rain are what scare me more, and you can get tornados. 

Please stay safe, and watch out for the imaginary children.

Angie


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## diane (May 4, 2002)

wottahuzzee said:


> Please, I don't lecture people who live iin blizzard country to drive 600 miles south if a blizzard is forecast. I don't expect people in Kansas to evacuate to Colorado if a tornado outbreak is expected. I don' call CPS on people living in California near or on a fault line, and I don't expect people to stay off beaches because there might be a tsunami. I don't think you meant it as such but I do not appreciate your scolding. I think that sensible people who have lived in an area for a while and know the conditions should be the judge of what is best for their family. Right now, my nonexistent kids are tethered to a palm tree in my yard. When their feet are off the ground for more than 10 seconds, I will know we have reached tropical storm conditions.
> 
> Thankfully, we will only be getting TS conditions, I am praying for whoever this storm does hit. Watching all the storm coverage and checking all the models yesterday, I said this thing is going south of Cuba and then to Mexico, but we still put up the yard stuff and boarded the windows.
> 
> So stay safe all.


Sorry I offended your sensibilities. I guess watching the scenes during Katrina tainted me. Take care.


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## Cyngbaeld (May 20, 2004)

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1075&tstamp=200809



> Hurricane Ike has completed its final traverse of Cuba, and is now over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. All indications are that Ike will intensify into a very dangerous major hurricane that will hit the Texas coast Friday night or Saturday. Key West radar shows that the inner eyewall of Ike has collapsed, but satellite loops show that Ike has maintained a large, well-organized circulation during its passage of Cuba. The 4 pm EDT center fix from the Hurricane Hunters found a central pressure of 968 mb, which is characteristic of a Category 2 hurricane. Passage over Cuba did not disrupt the storm enough to keep Ike from intensifying into a major hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico.
> 
> The latest 12Z (8am EDT) computer models have come into much better agreement. All of the major models foresee a landfall between Corpus Christi and Galveston. Landfall would occur late Friday night or early Saturday morning, and tropical storm force winds would arrive at the coast on Friday morning. Given the inability of the models to agree until now, this landfall is certainly not a "sure thing", and the cone of uncertainty covers the entire coast of Texas. Data from the NOAA jet will go into tonight's 00Z (8 pm EDT) model runs, which will be available first thing Wednesday morning. That set of model runs should give us a pretty good idea of where Ike will go. I'm sure emergency managers are not eager to call for an evacuation of Houston, after the debacle of the evacuation for Hurricane Rita in 2005. Over 110 people died in the evacuation--far more than died in the storm. Still, there is a significant chance that an evacuation of large stretches of the Texas coast--including portions of Houston--will have to be ordered on Wednesday or Thursday.
> 
> ...


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## unregistered29228 (Jan 9, 2008)

Hopefully the Hadron Collider will stop Ike cold in his tracks!


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## huzzyjr (Apr 21, 2005)

Thank you wottahuzzee, love your answer, and remember if their hair stands straight up a tornando is over you.
Now back to packing up.

huzzyjr/ Carol


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## Cyngbaeld (May 20, 2004)

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1079&tstamp=200809



> Posted by: JeffMasters, 9:19 PM EDT on September 10, 2008
> Hurricane Ike is intensifying dramatically. The central pressure has dropped 11 mb in just four hours, and stood at 947 mb at 7 pm EDT. The latest Hurricane Hunter data show that the pressure is continuing to fall at a rapid pace. The winds have not caught up yet to the pressure fall, and remain at Catgeroy 2 strength. The satellite presentation of the hurricane has improved markedly, as Ike has walled off the dry air that was bothering it, and has built a solid eyewall of 9 miles diameter of very intense thunderstorms. The appearance of Ike on infrared satellite loops is similar to Hurricane Wilma during its rapid intensification phase, when Wilma became the strongest hurricane on record. Like Wilma, Ike has a very tiny "pinhole" eye, but the storm is huge in size. Ike has a long way to go to match Wilma, but I expect Ike will be at least a Category 3 hurricane by morning, and probably a Category 4.
> 
> Ike is almost as large as Katrina was, and this large wind field is already beginning to pile up a formidable storm surge. Tides are running 2-4 feet above normal along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the west coast of Florida. Tides have risen one foot above normal in Galveston too. The water level will continue to rise as Ike approaches Texas, and NOAA's experimental storm surge forecast (Figure 1) is calling for a 10% chance that the storm tide from Ike will reach 10-12 feet at Galveston, and 18-21 feet on the south and east sides of Houston.
> ...


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## Cyngbaeld (May 20, 2004)

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html



> Posted by: JeffMasters, 3:36 PM GMT on September 11, 2008
> Hurricane Ike's winds remain at Category 2 strength, but Ike is a freak storm with extreme destructive storm surge potential. Ike's pressure fell rapidly last night to 944 mb, but the hurricane did not respond to the pressure change by increasing its maximum winds in the eyewall. Instead, Ike responded by increasing the velocity of its winds away from the eyewall, over a huge stretch of the Gulf of Mexico. Another very unusual feature of Ike is the fact that the surface winds are much slower than the winds being measured aloft by the Hurricane Hunters. Winds at the surface may only be at Category 1 strength, even though Ike has a central pressure characteristic of a Category 3 or 4 storm. This very unusual structure makes forecasting the future intensity of Ike nearly impossible. The possibilities range from a Category 1 storm at landfall--as predicted by the HWRF model--to a Category 4 storm at landfall, as predicted by the GFDL.
> 
> Ike is now larger than Katrina was, both in its radius of tropical storm force winds--275 miles--and in it radius of hurricane force winds--115 miles. For comparison, Katrina's tropical storm and hurricane force winds extended out 230 and 105 miles, respectively. Ike's huge wind field has put an extraordinarily large volume of ocean water in motion. When this swirling column of water hits the shallow waters of the Continental Shelf, it will be be forced up into a large storm surge which will probably rival the massive storm surge of Hurricane Carla of 1961. Carla was a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds at landfall, and drove a 10 foot or higher storm surge to a 180-mile stretch of Texas coast. A maximum storm surge of 22 feet was recorded at Port Lavaca, Texas. Despite the fact that the center of Carla hit over 120 miles southwest of Houston, the hurricane drove a 15-foot storm surge into the bays along the south side of the city. I don't expect Ike will reach Category 4 strength, thus its maximum surge is not likely to reach the extreme values above 20 feet seen in Hurricane Carla. Like Carla, though, Ike will probably inundate a 180-mile stretch of Texas coast from Port O'Connor to just north of Galveston with a 10-15 foot storm surge. This will occur even if Ike is a Category 1 storm at landfall. The latest experimental storm surge forecast From NOAA's SLOSH model (Figure 1) shows a 10% chance that Ike's storm surge will exceed 15-21 feet at Galveston. The Galveston sea wall is 17 feet high, so it may get overtopped.
> ...


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## Cyngbaeld (May 20, 2004)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aQpDadXzSBi4&refer=home#



> Hurricane Ike Aims at Houston; Evacuations Called (Update2)
> 
> By Brian K. Sullivan
> 
> ...


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## Cyngbaeld (May 20, 2004)

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/tropical/maps.htm

Evacuation zones and maps are here.


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## Sheripoms (May 17, 2008)

``It's in the strongest and most heavily reinforced building on campus; it can withstand severe wind and storm surges,'' Hensley said. ``We have secured all the pathogens and decontaminated all the lab work surfaces.''

What the heck does "Secured all pathogens mean"? Does this mean that if the hurricane strikes the hospital, they could set the pathogens free? And just what pathogens are they talking about? Weird.


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## Cyngbaeld (May 20, 2004)

It means he is certain that nothing nasty and contagious can get loose, even if a really bad storm hits the campus.


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## wottahuzzee (Jul 7, 2006)

Links to local TV coverage of Ike. Four TV stations will come up. Use the sound/mute button to select the one to which you want to listen.

http://www.maroonspoon.com/wx/ike.html


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## JGex (Dec 27, 2005)

I just went to my hometown newspaper to check on the flooding there. They have a very somber message for Galveston:

http://www.sunherald.com/

Ricky sounds like he's about to cry here:

http://www.sunherald.com/newsupdates/story/811253.html

He used to be my boss.


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## JGex (Dec 27, 2005)

Just wanted to add:

I have NEVER seen the Coast flood like it is now from a hurricane making landfall in TX. Not even Rita, and she was much closer to us than Ike is in positioning.


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## xbeeman412 (May 10, 2002)

Here is what I posted in GC
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

This storm isnt just about a 115 mph wind. This storm is pushing a wall of water into galveston bay that may be as tall as 25 feet above normal tide with wave heights above 50 ft. That My friends is a KILLER surge. I live 20 miles from the gulf when there. Please Pray for those in its path as many will loose their lives tonight. My personal thought is it will be in the hundreds that loose their lives. What a shame when they have been told to LEAVE and didnt.

We are in Oklahoma at this time but may have to return when this is over.

May God protect those in the storms path.

God Bless.
__________________
Charles Steen
C and C Boer Goats
Santa Fe Tx and Stilwell Ok


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## wottahuzzee (Jul 7, 2006)

Be safe tonight our friends in Texas.


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## Cyngbaeld (May 20, 2004)




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## Guest (Sep 13, 2008)

Slideshow and videos here:

http://www.abcnews.go.com/US/Travel/story?id=5795513&page=1


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## Cyngbaeld (May 20, 2004)

Only grazed us a little here and NO flooding, thank the Lord. 

Ike jogged at the last moment so Galveston was not completely destroyed as it would have been.


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## AngieM2 (May 10, 2002)

Cyn - good to hear. Nice to know you won't be opening the front door to a slither visitor again.

Watch out anyway.

Angie


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## Cyngbaeld (May 20, 2004)

Thanks. Got the .22 handy just in case.


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