# Where Will New Jobs Come From?



## MoonRiver (Sep 2, 2007)

I heard part of an interview where the person was making the argument that the first stage of robotics replaced physical labor. That now we are in the phase where robotics replaces brain power. 

I've been doing a little research on the state of robotics, and we are seeing the beginnings of robots replacing people in the military, in healthcare, in finance, etc; in other words, in areas that use a lot of brainpower.

We are also starting to see robots developing new robots. And robots that can reconfigure themselves to adopt to changing environments.

So where will new jobs come from?

Agriculture - they are starting to use robotic fruit pickers in Europe. If we can have self driving cars it seems we can have self driving tractors.

Manufacturing - no way. Perfect case for robotics.

Finance - The banks have already replaced thousands of employees with automation and the trend is continuing.

Military - Expected to reduce in size by hundreds of thousands in next few years.

Education - at some point in time, the teacher's unions will lose and millions will be let go.

Energy - the cost of solar is dropping and is likely to continue to drop. Solar panels can be made by robots. Demand for carbon based energy will slowly decline over the next 20 years. Keystone would provide a short term bump, but only until it is completed.

We need to replace a/c technicians, electricians, plumbers, auto mechanics, builders, etc., but I don't see demand increasing because products are becoming more efficient and more reliable.

We thought we needed more nurses and nurses aids to handle the aging population, but do we really? 

Government and big business have colluded to restrict small businesses through rules and regulations making it harder for new bootstrap businesses to get started. Since most new jobs come from small business, this is another area that is not likely to grow.

So where will your kids or grand kids find a job that pays a decent living? How long before that job goes away and they have to start over? Is there a job that a recent college graduate could get that will likely provide them a career path for the next 40 years?

Just some questions to get you thinking. What do you see as the near term (next 10 years) future of jobs in US?


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## Ozarks Tom (May 27, 2011)

Um, a society that lives in idle poverty?


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## homstdr74 (Jul 4, 2011)

Don't expect the bureaucracy to make things any easier. Any group that will purposely allow American jobs to be shipped overseas to put Americans out of work, while at the same time allowing those goods to be shipped to the US on diesel freighters causing more environmental problems, while all the while passing rules and regulations against its own citizenry in the name of "global warming", is completely out of touch with reality.


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## plowjockey (Aug 18, 2008)

Severe labor shortage, IMO.

Already a labor shortage, in some fields, declining birth rates and more retiring, will factor in - big time.

There will be plenty of jobs but the requirements will be, the ability (and desire) to work hard (for "dirty" work), the ability to actually think and/or having additional specialized post high school education.

Every low paying job, always has a higher paid supervisor, but people refuse to realize this.

Our attitude towards work and education, will be our biggest hindrance, IMO.

I think some call it _ambition_.


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## where I want to (Oct 28, 2008)

So far the only growth industry seems to be in harvesting what small bits people can earn (government and finance) and social work (government and charity.) 
The only product people seem to have that is not replaceable by machines is opinions- and there are way too many of those. 
I suppose we will need to hope for the next great change like the Luddites and the industrial revolution. But that is the trap of encouraging non-workers. Finding the next thing will be hard enough without having to drag along those who are content to sit in the same place.


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## TheMartianChick (May 26, 2009)

While the use of robotics in manufacturing is expanding, they still require human programming and servicing. One aspect of my husband's job involves programming industrial robots. He has been doing this type of work since 1993 and it is still highly in demand.


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## arcticow (Oct 8, 2006)

All this conjecture does not allow for collapse of society AWKI and what replacement for it arises once the smoke and dust settle...


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## MoonRiver (Sep 2, 2007)

TheMartianChick said:


> While the use of robotics in manufacturing is expanding, they still require human programming and servicing. One aspect of my husband's job involves programming industrial robots. He has been doing this type of work since 1993 and it is still highly in demand.


I bet within 5 years, most of the programming will be done by machines.


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## JJ Grandits (Nov 10, 2002)

Where will the jobs come from? DUH! Robot repair. I worked in manufacturing that had robots. Took three people to keep one of those darn things running.


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## MoonRiver (Sep 2, 2007)

JJ Grandits said:


> Where will the jobs come from? DUH! Robot repair. I worked in manufacturing that had robots. Took three people to keep one of those darn things running.


So if a robot replaces 5 people and it takes 3 people to maintain the robot, there is a net loss of 2 jobs.


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## TheMartianChick (May 26, 2009)

JJ Grandits said:


> Where will the jobs come from? DUH! Robot repair. I worked in manufacturing that had robots. Took three people to keep one of those darn things running.


Absolutely! My hubby's job also involves repairing the robots. While the robots are able to do the welding and other manufacturing tasks, they still require an operator. Back in the 90's when my husband first trained at ABB in Colorado, the robots at his place of employment crashed on a near-daily basis.


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## plowjockey (Aug 18, 2008)

MoonRiver said:


> So if a robot replaces 5 people and it takes 3 people to maintain the robot, there is a net loss of 2 jobs.


Not necessarily.

One idea of automation, is to increase production at a lower cost, so it's possible more robots could be implemented - more more production and thus requiring more human support.

Can a robot ever build an electric drill, faster and cheaper, than a Chinese worker, or even a Chinese robot?

Maybe someday. If so, then automation will bring jobs back into the U.S. , where it would be more profitable, to build that drill here.

Some American companies, competed successfully with clone PC motherboards, years ago, because all of the components were installed completely with automation, minimizing human labor. It got tougher when the Chinese started doing the same.


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## Tabitha (Apr 10, 2006)

homstdr74 said:


> Don't expect the bureaucracy to make things any easier. Any group that will purposely allow American jobs to be shipped overseas to put Americans out of work, while at the same time allowing those goods to be shipped to the US on diesel freighters causing more environmental problems, while all the while passing rules and regulations against its own citizenry in the name of "global warming", is completely out of touch with reality.


Maybe we are out of touch with their reality.


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## plowjockey (Aug 18, 2008)

arcticow said:


> All this conjecture does not allow for collapse of society AWKI and what replacement for it arises once the smoke and dust settle...


No need for it to do so, since if this happens, the _replacement_ will be anarchy and the only work opportunity, will be for profiteers, pirates and gangsters.

Frightfully, there are many, who hope this will actually happen, that somehow we will be better off.


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## plowjockey (Aug 18, 2008)

homstdr74 said:


> Don't expect the bureaucracy to make things any easier. Any group that will purposely allow American jobs to be shipped overseas to put Americans out of work, while at the same time allowing those goods to be shipped to the US on diesel freighters causing more environmental problems, while all the while passing rules and regulations against its own citizenry in the name of "global warming", is completely out of touch with reality.


How do "they" keep American businesses - who are presumably free (for the most part) to do what they want, from having their products, manufactured anywhere in the world, they want?

Just curious.


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## arcticow (Oct 8, 2006)

Even anarchy wears itself out as people eventually demand order... And if necessary, induce it themselves, by force.


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## Tabitha (Apr 10, 2006)

People will be superfluous. Robots are so much easier. You don't have to pay them either.


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## willow_girl (Dec 7, 2002)

> We thought we needed more nurses and nurses aids to handle the aging population, but do we really?


Probably. We've yet to develop a robot capable of changing an adult diaper ... :huh:


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## Mike in Ohio (Oct 29, 2002)

I've heard that there will be a strong demand for linemen (linepeople just doesn't sound right to me) by electric companies. This segment of the workforce is skewed older and there will be a lot of people retiring.

There will be jobs but the ones who get the better paying ones will be smart or lucky. For people with jobs it is important to always keep current a plan on what to do if you lose your job. 

There are always jobs being created, but which ones? How to make sure you have the skills and qualifications for the better jobs. 

Certified welders are another job segment where there seems to be ongoing demand. You may have to move around to where the demand (pipeline construction, oil and gas fields for example) is though. 

Internet security is a segment that is growing and there are nowhere near enough people. But it takes time and training and it's hard to get your foot in the door. If you are good at it there is always the possibility to telecommute, at least part time.

There is a strong demand for QSAs (Qualified Security Assessor). Again, that job requires training and experience in IT plus security experience.

I think there will be a lot of people out of work as the economy changes. I also think there will be opportunities.

Just a few thoughts.

Mike


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## deaconjim (Oct 31, 2005)

I've been working with industrial automation for the past 20+ years. I saw early on that robots don't claim disability due to carpel tunnel syndrome, nor do they go on strike. They rarely take a break, and they never claim sexual harrassment in the work place. 

It was only a matter of time before the cost of robotics reached the point that machines were cheaper than people. McDonalds workers who demand $15/hr to take orders at the counter aren't paying attention to the automated kiosks that are already in use in many other fast food businesses. 

Even those of us who program and maintain the robotics will soon be marginalized by the very technology we work to support. Frankly, the only way I see the situation improving is when the economy collapses to the point that manual labor becomes more cost effective than automation. 

The only areas where people still hold the edge will be in creativity and ingenuity, and we had better become quite proficient in those areas if we are going to survive.


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## homstdr74 (Jul 4, 2011)

plowjockey said:


> How do "they" keep American businesses - who are presumably free (for the most part) to do what they want, from having their products, manufactured anywhere in the world, they want?
> 
> Just curious.


Thomas Jefferson and the founders levied impost taxations. Today, that would basically mean: dump the NAFTA nonsense, get out of the WTO entirely, and tax any goods imported from Wal-Mart China so the price of their sale would be higher than the price of any similar good manufactured here in the U.S.

"[Montesquieu wrote in _Spirit of the Laws,_ XIII,c.14:] 'A capitation is more natural to slavery; a duty on merchandise is more natural to liberty, by reason it has not so direct a relation to the person.'" --Thomas Jefferson: copied into his Commonplace Book.

"It must be observed that our revenues are raised almost wholly on imported goods." --Thomas Jefferson to Gouverneur Morris, 1793. ME 9:198 

"The rich alone use imported articles, and on these alone the whole taxes of the General Government are levied. ... Our revenues liberated by the discharge of the public debt, and its surplus applied to canals, roads, schools, etc., the farmer will see his government supported, his children educated, and the face of his country made a paradise by the contributions of the rich alone, without his being called on to spend a cent from his earnings." --Thomas Jefferson to Thaddeus Kosciusko, 1811. ME 13:41 

"We are all the more reconciled to the tax on importations, because it falls exclusively on the rich, and with the equal partition of intestate's estates, constitutes the best agrarian law. In fact, the poor man in this country who uses nothing but what is made within his own farm or family, or within the United States, pays not a farthing of tax to the General Government, but on his salt; and should we go into that manufacture as we ought to do, he will pay not one cent." --Thomas Jefferson to Pierre Samuel Dupont de Nemours, 1811. ME 13:39


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## arcticow (Oct 8, 2006)

This is why I would be a Jeffersonian Democrat... If only there were such... Closest I can associate myself is as a Tea Party independent...


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## Harry Chickpea (Dec 19, 2008)

MoonRiver, I periodically bring the subject up. It is something I've seen happening for years and most people are oblivious to the trends.

I think the first time it really hit home for me was how India handled the change from steam railroad to diesel and electric. There were a STAGGERING number of people who depended on pennies per day jobs working on the steam railroads - to the point that for many years there was no economic advantage for conversion. Those poorly paid jobs kept people from starving or rioting. In order to grow the economy and keep up with the rest of the world, it was eventually decided that steam and all those jobs would go. There wasn't a plan (to the best of my knowledge) to retrain the workers and they were left to shift for themselves or die.

Population growth, especially in developed countries, has been shrinking. The insane rates of travel and spread of diseases make me think that a combination of epidemics, wars, "accidental" releases of bio-warfare, and low birth rates will shrink world population in the next hundred years. The economic justification for a large semi-educated work force is even less now than when the Irish subsistence farmers and cottage industries were kicked off their lands and across the Atlantic by the gentry.


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## arabian knight (Dec 19, 2005)

deaconjim said:


> I've been working with industrial automation for the past 20+ years. I saw early on that robots don't claim disability due to carpel tunnel syndrome, nor do they go on strike. They rarely take a break, and they never claim sexual harrassment in the work place.


Oh I know exsatly where you are coming form. Back when I started working for this computer parts company making tiny tiny parts that go in the HD the part that holds the Read/Write head on. It took 16 of us to make 36,000 of those parts in a 12 hour period. 
And now those same parts are being made by 3 people~! All the rest of the jobs were taken over by robots~! Even had a set of cameras that looked at each part and would reject any bad ones then a robot would flip the string of 12 parts over and a set of cameras would inspect the other side of those parts where before 5 people did that same amount of work. Now those three workers make 50,000 parts in a 12 hour period with less rejects then if humans were in control of looking at parts and flipping the parts over etc.


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## wwubben (Oct 13, 2004)

MoonRiver said:


> I heard part of an interview where the person was making the argument that the first stage of robotics replaced physical labor. That now we are in the phase where robotics replaces brain power.
> 
> I've been doing a little research on the state of robotics, and we are seeing the beginnings of robots replacing people in the military, in healthcare, in finance, etc; in other words, in areas that use a lot of brainpower.
> 
> ...


We already have self driving tractors.Gps is used a lot in farming now days.Some things will always have to be done by manual labor though.Ag is a good place to have a career.


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## plowjockey (Aug 18, 2008)

homstdr74 said:


> Thomas Jefferson and the founders levied impost taxations. Today, that would basically mean: dump the NAFTA nonsense, get out of the WTO entirely, and tax any goods imported from Wal-Mart China so the price of their sale would be higher than the price of any similar good manufactured here in the U.S.
> 
> "[Montesquieu wrote in _Spirit of the Laws,_ XIII,c.14:] 'A capitation is more natural to slavery; a duty on merchandise is more natural to liberty, by reason it has not so direct a relation to the person.'" --Thomas Jefferson: copied into his Commonplace Book.
> 
> ...


Running our domestic and global economy, like they did _250 years ago_, seems like a good way to make things worse, not better.

Taxing all imports will be passed on the the consumer, who is already tapped out. 

What happens when the global trade war - we started, makes other countries tax our exports?

If all manufacturing is brought back, where will the huge number of American workers come from, to work in these 10's of thousands, of factories? Assuming Americans even _want_ to work in factories any more, will there be decent pay and benefits - to offset the higher consumer prices, now the the Unions are gone?

We don't like NAFTA (many don't ever know how it even works), but our trade deficit with Canada is relatively small (shirking big time now that we have our own crude), but in 2013 we exported *$277 billion* to Canada. How long would it be, before _they_ started putting tariffs on _our_ exports and what would be the negative effects, on American businesses, who export to Canada? Same with Mexico, with $200 billion in U.S. exports.

China trade is a biggie, on trade deficit, but exports are up them also.

Having America as a close economy, is just not feasible, IMO and taxing s struggling economy will improve nothing, but the Governments coffers.




> The gap decreased 5.4 percent to $40.6 billion from a $43 billion shortfall in September that was larger than previously estimated, the Commerce Department reported today in Washington. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of 63 economists called for a $40 billion deficit.
> 
> 
> Sales of goods to China, Canada and Mexico were the highest ever, pointing to improving global demand that will benefit American manufacturers. In addition, an expanding U.S. economy is helping boost growth abroad as purchases of products from the European Union also climbed to a record in October even as fiscal gridlock prompted a partial federal shutdown.
> ...


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-04/trade-gap-in-u-s-shrank-in-october-on-record-exports.html


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## joebill (Mar 2, 2013)

Tarriffs? Well, I'd kind of like seeing Mexicans smuggling shoes in instead of drugs, but smuggle they will. The higher prices go on consumer items the more opportunity and incentive for somebody to find a way to make it cheaper or smuggle it in.

As more and more things become taken over by automation, i find a greater and greater market for handmades in nearly EVERY field.....Joe


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## homstdr74 (Jul 4, 2011)

plowjockey said:


> Running our domestic and global economy, like they did _250 years ago_, seems like a good way to make things worse, not better.
> 
> Taxing all imports will be passed on the the consumer, who is already tapped out.
> 
> ...


So your position is that it's all good, don't mess with it, etc. Well, 'twas always thus.......and no one does anything but allow the "global economy" to continue, enabling the rich to get richer and the poor to get poorer, degrading the environment, further destroying the concept of America from that of an exceptional Nation to that of a third-world nation. 

Democracy? In your dreams......"Four score and seven years ago our fathers brought forth on this continent, a new nation, conceived in Liberty, and dedicated to the proposition that all men are created equal."

There is no law written that can actually guarantee that all human beings are equal, because we are not. Lincoln knew that when he wrote that this Nation is "dedicated to the proposition" that such a thing as equality can exist. Anyone who allows this farce called "global trade" to continue is only furthering inequality in this Nation and continuing to erode our Constitution by allowing internationalism into our daily lives.


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## Truckinguy (Mar 8, 2008)

They are predicting there will be a shortage of up to 30,000 truck drivers in Canada by the year 2020. If we're going to be short that many drivers up here I can imagine how much of a shortage there will be in the US. It's not a cushy 9-5 job but if you're willing to work hard you can make some good money. There are a lot of jobs out there right now but a lot of people may have to take a job they don't like or relocate, even temporarily, to pay the bills.


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## plowjockey (Aug 18, 2008)

Truckinguy said:


> They are predicting there will be a shortage of up to 30,000 truck drivers in Canada by the year 2020. If we're going to be short that many drivers up here I can imagine how much of a shortage there will be in the US. It's not a cushy 9-5 job but if you're willing to work hard you can make some good money. There are a lot of jobs out there right now but a lot of people may have to take a job they don't like or relocate, even temporarily, to pay the bills.


Americans (apparently Canadians too) are too lazy, to drive trucks. Who wants to _work hard_, for 50 grand per year, plus benefits? 

Just like Canada, eventually we will be forced to hire foreign "guest workers", who will - hopefully, know which side of the road to drive on and read english.

Maybe someday trucks will drive themselves, but with the recent ice/snow/winds and bitter cold, that ain't any time soon.


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## plowjockey (Aug 18, 2008)

homstdr74 said:


> So your position is that it's all good, don't mess with it, etc. Well, 'twas always thus.......and no one does anything but allow the "global economy" to continue, enabling the rich to get richer and the poor to get poorer, degrading the environment, further destroying the concept of America from that of an exceptional Nation to that of a third-world nation.
> 
> Democracy? In your dreams......"Four score and seven years ago our fathers brought forth on this continent, a new nation, conceived in Liberty, and dedicated to the proposition that all men are created equal."
> 
> There is no law written that can actually guarantee that all human beings are equal, because we are not. Lincoln knew that when he wrote that this Nation is "dedicated to the proposition" that such a thing as equality can exist. Anyone who allows this farce called "global trade" to continue is only furthering inequality in this Nation and continuing to erode our Constitution by allowing internationalism into our daily lives.


I didn't state that ANYTHING was "all good", just that _protectionism_, will not improve anything.

NAFTA effects Canada too and just like the good ole' USA, their economy is still struggling also. Should we just say "nuts" to our good trading partner?

Not sure where you have been but the "rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer" mantra has been areound since the days of JD Rockefeller, 100 years ago.

Any American - as it has always been, can become successful, if they want to, bad enough.



> A new report from Credit Suisse shows that 1.7 million of the 1.8 million millionaires added to the ranks in the past year were created in the U.S., which now boasts 13.2 million millionaires. Rising stock markets, the housing rebound and a broader increase in asset values have fueled the surge.


http://www.cnbc.com/id/101099732

http://www.entrepreneur.com/startingabusiness/successstories/

As far as the environment, China has a long ways to go and GLOBAL pressure will help get them there, but Jaapan and Europe, already have clean air/water laws in place.


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## homstdr74 (Jul 4, 2011)

plowjockey said:


> I didn't state that ANYTHING was "all good", just that _protectionism_, will not improve anything.
> 
> NAFTA effects Canada too and just like the good ole' USA, their economy is still struggling also. Should we just say "nuts" to our good trading partner?
> 
> ...


I see. So I suppose you feel that way because the wonderful "global economy" has so improved things here for the average American?


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## plowjockey (Aug 18, 2008)

homstdr74 said:


> I see. So I suppose you feel that way because the wonderful "global economy" has so improved things here for the average American?


I don't recall saying anything was "wonderful". That is your word only.

If anyone cares, our family's life has improved, since the height of the recession of 08'. I am an average American - at least I think so.

Certainly not the case for everyone, but I see new businesses opening (some still closing), a whole lot of people driving new cars, malls and restaurants that are packed regularly. Highways choked with thousands of trucks, hauling something somewhere.

When I see people whining about not have a decent paying job/benefits and then see trucking companies, literally _begging_ for drivers, offering paid training, what am I suppose to think?

I don't think our's or the global economy is "wonderful", but I also don't think it is as dire, as some would suggest.

We are still pulling very slowly out of a terrible economic downturn. _Easy street_ is still a ways away, but there are plenty of opportunities for those that look hard enough.


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## Bellyman (Jul 6, 2013)

The US is a dying empire. Sorry. It's not coming back the way it was any more than the Roman empire came back into it's glory.

That's not to say it's going away. It's just not going to be what it once was. There will be jobs as long as there is commerce happening. There are things that just don't travel well (like truly vine ripened berries, for example) and things that are more economical to produce near the point of use. There will be need for people to repair the machines that are running, whatever they are, from microprocessor controlled robots to diesel engines. 

If someone is not tied to the US and is willing to move to where economies are growing, Asia is probably #1. Parts of Africa and South America ain't bad either.


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## Shrek (May 1, 2002)

New jobs will come from the same two sources they have always come from. Those who can envision the next better mouse trap and employ a sizable work force to produce it for consumers and the other 70% who may or may not possess vision but have the determination to carve out their niche market for their product or service and possibly employ 3 to 50 employees in their niche.


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## plowjockey (Aug 18, 2008)

Shrek is right. just as it has always been, it is a matter of finding a need and then finding a way to fill that need.

For instance.

There is a stretch along US 30 in IN, has does not have much, but an old truck stop, whose only food was junk food.

A woman converted a camper ( yes, she got all of the local restaurant permits and inspections) to sell home cooked-to-orders breakfasts, sandwiches, ice cream, drinks, etc.

Since then she has enclosed a heated area with tables and expanded with fresh baked food items.

Surprise, truck drivers do like to eat. 

I don't know if shes getting rich, but she is managing to stay in business, no small feat, nowadays.


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## Truckinguy (Mar 8, 2008)

plowjockey said:


> Americans (apparently Canadians too) are too lazy, to drive trucks. Who wants to _work hard_, for 50 grand per year, plus benefits?
> 
> Just like Canada, eventually we will be forced to hire foreign "guest workers", who will - hopefully, know which side of the road to drive on and read english.
> 
> Maybe someday trucks will drive themselves, but with the recent ice/snow/winds and bitter cold, that ain't any time soon.


I watch universities spew out tens of thousands of highly educated young people who can't find a job in their field or just can't find anything at all and it really irritates me. These people need to have a better plan going into university, specially in view of the huge investment in time and money they put into their education. They also need to be prepared to start at the bottom in their profession and work their way up.

I've loved big trucks since I was very little and always wanted to drive them. However, I had to work two years roofing and three years working evening shift in a paint shop before I got my first driving job which was a small pickup and minivan delivering small parts. Two years of that before upgrading my license to DZ, driving roll off trucks for six years, upgrading to AZ and finally driving tractor trailer. Now 27 years of driving for a living later, I'm trying to get out of it because I"m tired of the hours, the traffic, having to go out in all weather conditions, etc. 

Having said that, it's a great career for someone who is willing to work hard and there are a lot of related jobs that pay very good money. A truck license can open doors to a lot of other jobs like crane trucks, vacuum trucks, heavy equipment service, the list is endless. A CDL can be a stepping stone to so many other careers besides your mundane dock to dock driving job.

Around here the demand for the trades is very high. Plumbers, electricians, bricklayers, HVAC techs, roofers, they're always looking for people and the statistics show that the average age of these occupations is getting higher as younger people aren't getting into them and older guys are retiring.


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## Harry Chickpea (Dec 19, 2008)

Truckinguy said:


> They are predicting there will be a shortage of up to 30,000 truck drivers in Canada by the year 2020. If we're going to be short that many drivers up here I can imagine how much of a shortage there will be in the US. It's not a cushy 9-5 job but if you're willing to work hard you can make some good money. There are a lot of jobs out there right now but a lot of people may have to take a job they don't like or relocate, even temporarily, to pay the bills.


Problem solved:

http://news.cnet.com/8301-11386_3-5...-trucks-get-in-shape-for-us-army-convoy-duty/

It is coming.


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## HDRider (Jul 21, 2011)




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## mmoetc (Oct 9, 2012)

Harry Chickpea said:


> Problem solved:
> 
> http://news.cnet.com/8301-11386_3-5...-trucks-get-in-shape-for-us-army-convoy-duty/
> 
> It is coming.


I caught part of an interview with one of the head engineers of the Google driverless car program. He mentioned that his wife felt safer when he wasn't driving to their lake house and the car took over. He also mentioned that the system works great in normal driving but doesn't handle things like Bambi suddenly bounding across the road very well. It sounded just like most human drivers I know.


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## Tango (Aug 19, 2002)

Only read the title "Where will new jobs come from?"
Farming.


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## plowjockey (Aug 18, 2008)

mmoetc said:


> I caught part of an interview with one of the head engineers of the Google driverless car program. He mentioned that his wife felt safer when he wasn't driving to their lake house and the car took over. He also mentioned that the system works great in normal driving but doesn't handle things like Bambi suddenly bounding across the road very well. It sounded just like most human drivers I know.


Truckers have been driving on ice and snow covered roads, nearly every day, for the past few weeks. 

It will be interesting when (and if) there are vehicles than can judge - as road conditions change every few seconds, when it is safer to drive in one lane verses the other, or what happens when the road ahead is closed - 5 minutes ago, by emergency personnel, due to multi vehicle accidents.

Normal driving is pretty easy. It would be very interesting to see how safe she feels, when there is black ice on the road, meaning the speed should quickly drop from 50 to 20 MPH. before hand.


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## davel745 (Feb 2, 2009)

there may be an opening for a hangmen soon the tyranny is increasing.


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## Truckinguy (Mar 8, 2008)

plowjockey said:


> Truckers have been driving on ice and snow covered roads, nearly every day, for the past few weeks.
> 
> It will be interesting when (and if) there are vehicles than can judge - as road conditions change every few seconds, when it is safer to drive in one lane verses the other, or what happens when the road ahead is closed - 5 minutes ago, by emergency personnel, due to multi vehicle accidents.
> 
> Normal driving is pretty easy. It would be very interesting to see how safe she feels, when there is black ice on the road, meaning the speed should quickly drop from 50 to 20 MPH. before hand.


I would like to see a driverless tractor trailer drive around downtown Toronto at rush hour, park, unload an excavator, reattach the trailer and make it back to the yard without hitting anything. I guess the machine would also have to be driverless to unload itself. All very well and good to get the truck from A to B but what do you do when it gets there? 

My experience is construction. Dump trucks, concrete trucks, material delivery trucks, etc negotiate job sites where the roads aren't even laid out yet, there are soft spots you need to avoid, pipes and sewers sticking up all over the place, survey stakes you can't run over or you're in big trouble. I just don't think the technology will be good enough to be able to deal with every single situation out there.


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## Roadking (Oct 8, 2009)

No jobs coming from me, that's for sure...with all the gvt regs, filings and so on, it's not worth the hassle. I'll just remain a one man hobby band.

Matt


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## MoonRiver (Sep 2, 2007)

Tango said:


> Only read the title "Where will new jobs come from?"
> Farming.


How many in hundreds of thousands or millions? Anything less is inconsequential.


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## MoonRiver (Sep 2, 2007)

Truckinguy said:


> I would like to see a driverless tractor trailer drive around downtown Toronto at rush hour, park, unload an excavator, reattach the trailer and make it back to the yard without hitting anything. I guess the machine would also have to be driverless to unload itself. All very well and good to get the truck from A to B but what do you do when it gets there?
> 
> My experience is construction. Dump trucks, concrete trucks, material delivery trucks, etc negotiate job sites where the roads aren't even laid out yet, there are soft spots you need to avoid, pipes and sewers sticking up all over the place, survey stakes you can't run over or you're in big trouble. I just don't think the technology will be good enough to be able to deal with every single situation out there.


You are assuming everything stays the same.


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## Tango (Aug 19, 2002)

MoonRiver said:


> How many in hundreds of thousands or millions? Anything less is inconsequential.


50 million
http://johngerber.world.edu/2012/11/12/50-million-farmers/


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## Sawmill Jim (Dec 5, 2008)

Tango said:


> Only read the title "Where will new jobs come from?"
> Farming.


This area the farmers we call them row croppers ,when they rent more land instead of more help they just get bigger equipment . Here most farmers plant from 15,000 to 25,000 acres :hobbyhors

So I think the farming answer is so far in left field it won't get planted :umno:


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## plowjockey (Aug 18, 2008)

The Government may have to put an "equivalent income tax" on the work, done by those robots and driver-less vehicles.

Similar to taxing electric vehicles, which don't pay fuel road taxes.

"someone" will have to support all those Americans, on disability and permanent unemployment.


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## Truckinguy (Mar 8, 2008)

MoonRiver said:


> You are assuming everything stays the same.


As long as humans are still on this earth we will still need the infrastructure, supply chains, housing, food, etc. Not sure if much will change in the foreseeable future.


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## Tango (Aug 19, 2002)

Sawmill Jim said:


> This area the farmers we call them row croppers ,when they rent more land instead of more help they just get bigger equipment . Here most farmers plant from 15,000 to 25,000 acres :hobbyhors
> 
> So I think the farming answer is so far in left field it won't get planted :umno:


If we look at it the way it is now, then no, you are right. Continuing the aggregation of farm land into smaller and smaller holdings has eliminated jobs and ruined local economies. And it isn't sustainable.

Row cropping isn't sustainable. Fossil fuels, chemical fertilizer, unrestricted irrigation (ask the farmers in California today) soil erosion, run-off.... not sustainable.

But this ain't no :bandwagon: I need customers so feel free to keep looking around for jobs.


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## MoonRiver (Sep 2, 2007)

Tango said:


> 50 million
> http://johngerber.world.edu/2012/11/12/50-million-farmers/


The author plays very loosely with the word farmers and includes gardeners and hobbyists. I'm talking about full-time jobs that pay a living wage. We have enough food in US so obviously there are not 50 million unfilled farming jobs.

That's not to say someone can't make a living by starting a farm, but what they produce and sell is that much less some other farmer will sell.


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## MoonRiver (Sep 2, 2007)

Truckinguy said:


> As long as humans are still on this earth we will still need the infrastructure, supply chains, housing, food, etc. Not sure if much will change in the foreseeable future.


Of course it will. We are just at the beginning of the intelligent robot revolution. 3-D printing will put millions out of work.


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## Joel_BC (Nov 10, 2009)

Truckinguy said:


> I watch universities spew out tens of thousands of highly educated young people who can't find a job in their field or just can't find anything at all and it really irritates me. These people need to have a better plan going into university, specially in view of the huge investment in time and money they put into their education. They also need to be prepared to start at the bottom in their profession and work their way up.
> 
> I've loved big trucks since I was very little and always wanted to drive them. However, I had to work two years roofing and three years working evening shift in a paint shop before I got my first driving job which was a small pickup and minivan delivering small parts. Two years of that before upgrading my license to DZ, driving roll off trucks for six years, upgrading to AZ and finally driving tractor trailer. Now 27 years of driving for a living later, I'm trying to get out of it because I"m tired of the hours, the traffic, having to go out in all weather conditions, etc.
> 
> ...


I can relate to what you've said. I was start-and-stop in college (Canada), as I really hadn't figured out what I'd be happy doing after I graduated. Besides, I wanted to 'learn more from real life' - so I sorta worked my way up (or just _into_) what I eventually wanted to do. Drove farm delivery from the rural area into the city markets, worked as a truck-dock stevedore, did house framing, handyman work, worked in a vanilla bottling operation, clerked in a food-specialty store and a bookstore, did a camp/retreat cook chore, and other stuff. Finished the degree and went to work in the publishing industry (mostly from a home office) while living frugally on a little homestead on cheap land.

I'm glad for all the manual skills I picked up along the way: carpentry, water systems, plumbing, household/workshop electrical, woodworking, welding, etc.

Okay, but all of the above leaves me seeing a contrast, with a lot of today's kids. Not all, of course, but _a lot_ are growing up lazy in a fantasy world kept interesting to them by digital downloads & gameplaying, alcohol & pot. These ones (not the on-the-ball energetic and focussed ones) will likely drag-a** through life. Nothing's exciting enough to entice them out of their bubble! Some will dream about being the next Steve Jobs or Mark Zuckerberg, and it will remain their dream until they're too old to dream it anymore. I think schools try to get the kids to understand realities beyond their pastimes and infantile enthusiasms, but it's a tough battle.

I'm sure this has been the subject of many discussions in other threads, but to me this topic seems to (unfortunately) fit right in with this thread. Many jobs _will_ go begging _unless_ third-world immigrants come in to fill them. In the US and Canada. At this point, there doesn't seem to be any way around it.


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## big rockpile (Feb 24, 2003)

homstdr74 said:


> Thomas Jefferson and the founders levied impost taxations. Today, that would basically mean: dump the NAFTA nonsense, get out of the WTO entirely, and tax any goods imported from Wal-Mart China so the price of their sale would be higher than the price of any similar good manufactured here in the U.S.
> 
> "[Montesquieu wrote in _Spirit of the Laws,_ XIII,c.14:] 'A capitation is more natural to slavery; a duty on merchandise is more natural to liberty, by reason it has not so direct a relation to the person.'" --Thomas Jefferson: copied into his Commonplace Book.
> 
> ...


 Agree!

big rockpile


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## plowjockey (Aug 18, 2008)

Joel_BC said:


> I'm sure this has been the subject of many discussions in other threads, but to me this topic seems to (unfortunately) fit right in with this thread. Many jobs _will_ go begging _unless_ third-world immigrants come in to fill them. In the US and Canada. At this point, there doesn't seem to be any way around it.


That's about right.

Unemployed Americans at least, don't want to pick tomatoes, gut hogs, sew garments, drive a truck, clean a hotel toilet, etc. but it seems like they don't want any foreigners, coming and doing these jobs, either.


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## MoonRiver (Sep 2, 2007)

plowjockey said:


> That's about right.
> 
> Unemployed Americans at least, don't want to pick tomatoes, gut hogs, sew garments, drive a truck, clean a hotel toilet, etc. but it seems like they don't want any foreigners, coming and doing these jobs, either.


All jobs that will soon be automated. All it will take is to keep raising the minimum wage until automation is cheaper than low skilled labor.


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## Joel_BC (Nov 10, 2009)

MoonRiver said:


> plowjockey said:
> 
> 
> > Unemployed Americans at least, don't want to pick tomatoes, gut hogs, sew garments, drive a truck, clean a hotel toilet, etc. but it seems like they don't want any foreigners, coming and doing these jobs, either.
> ...


Are you wise or baffled on the question you posed, MoonRiver? Have you answered the question for yourself? We're sharing a lot of thoughts - you feel like sharing? :huh:


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## MoonRiver (Sep 2, 2007)

Joel_BC said:


> Are you wise or baffled on the question you posed, MoonRiver? Have you answered the question for yourself? We're sharing a lot of thoughts - you feel like sharing? :huh:


I'm stumped. Most people are suggesting future job growth will be in old traditional jobs and I don't think that will happen. Yes, there will be a demand for mechanics, farmers, welders, etc, but these are shrinking fields of employment. Smart machines will replace many employees of today's job, so where are the millions of new jobs going to come from?

I remember after 911, wondering what would get the economy going again. I couldn't see a catalyst. So what got the economy growing? The housing bubble! Our economy lurches from 1 bubble to the next bridged by recessions.

Obama tried to create a green bubble, but it leaked air from the beginning. Nat gas could have at least given us a 5-10 year bubble. So I'm not seeing much the government can do create a jobs bubble and the economy is hemorrhaging jobs as technology reduces headcount. So where will the jobs come from?

ETA: I needed another sprayer. Stopped by Lowes and they didn't have them out yet. Got on Amazon and found a 4 gallon for about what Lowes sells a 2 gallon for, plus it had great reviews. So I go on Amazon, spend maybe 5 minutes reviewing sprayers, place my order, and everything was automated. It wasn't until the item is pulled and shipped that a human is involved. That's why Radio Shack just announced they are closing 500 stores and why Sam's Club just laid off 2300 employees. JC Penney and Sears will be announcing more layoffs and store closings soon. And on and on.


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## homstdr74 (Jul 4, 2011)

big rockpile said:


> Agree!
> 
> big rockpile


The way things have been going lately, we can only wonder if it is true that "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it":

"When in the Course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature's God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that *they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation*."

As a purely intellectual exercise, we could make a list of any possible present-day causes:


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## Joshie (Dec 8, 2008)

Jobs will come from where they've always come. Our economy doesn't thrive because of the government and governmental jobs. Jobs come from the little guy who takes his good idea from good idea to a good little business.


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## MoonRiver (Sep 2, 2007)

Joshie said:


> Jobs will come from where they've always come. Our economy doesn't thrive because of the government and governmental jobs. Jobs come from the little guy who takes his good idea from good idea to a good little business.


That doesn't tell me anything. What kinds of jobs will the little guy be creating?


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## Oggie (May 29, 2003)

Once wealthy folks' taxes are cut enough, they'll have to hire people to help them stack their cash.


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## Roadking (Oct 8, 2009)

MoonRiver said:


> That doesn't tell me anything. What kinds of jobs will the little guy be creating?


The "little guy" will find a niche for his/her abilities and become self employed under the table business, not an LLC or sub S corp; partnerships seem to only be lawyers and accountants anymore...more and more I am seeing one man/woman gigs; Etsy, craigslist and such...gvt makes hiring an employee and running a business an absurd task...ask me how I know.
IOW, the job he will create is singular and self serving. Question is, will enough people do the same to create an economy?

Matt


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## Evons hubby (Oct 3, 2005)

Most of my adult life I have created my own jobs. I never cared much about making the other guy richer.


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## deaconjim (Oct 31, 2005)

Yvonne's hubby said:


> Most of my adult life I have created my own jobs. I never cared much about making the other guy richer.


I'm trying very hard to figure out how to do just that right now. So far, I'm not having a lot of success.


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## Evons hubby (Oct 3, 2005)

deaconjim said:


> I'm trying very hard to figure out how to do just that right now. So far, I'm not having a lot of success.


Find a need and fill it. For years I repairs cars. Then I built houses, remodeling etc. I had better luck buying and selling real estate than anything else.


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## Tricky Grama (Oct 7, 2006)

TheMartianChick said:


> While the use of robotics in manufacturing is expanding, they still require human programming and servicing. One aspect of my husband's job involves programming industrial robots. He has been doing this type of work since 1993 and it is still highly in demand.


 I din not know this! Very interesting!


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## Tricky Grama (Oct 7, 2006)

Oggie said:


> Once wealthy folks' taxes are cut enough, they'll have to hire people to help them stack their cash.


 Why is this not happening now? The disparagy between the very rich & poor is greater now-due to this admin-than any other time.


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## plowjockey (Aug 18, 2008)

MoonRiver said:


> That doesn't tell me anything. What kinds of jobs will the little guy be creating?


They will start by creating jobs for themselves. 

Get a license and open a plumbing business, or doing auto repair. When they get busy (and they will) hire employee or two. Make designer body soaps in your kitchen, If they hit, get bigger at another location.

Most evry business starts out very small.


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## plowjockey (Aug 18, 2008)

MoonRiver said:


> ETA: I needed another sprayer. Stopped by Lowes and they didn't have them out yet. Got on Amazon and found a 4 gallon for about what Lowes sells a 2 gallon for, plus it had great reviews. So I go on Amazon, spend maybe 5 minutes reviewing sprayers, place my order, and everything was automated. It wasn't until the item is pulled and shipped that a human is involved. That's why Radio Shack just announced they are closing 500 stores and why Sam's Club just laid off 2300 employees. JC Penney and Sears will be announcing more layoffs and store closings soon. And on and on.


Amazon has 110,000 employees, who must be dong something, for a paycheck.

http://www.geekwire.com/2013/amazon-reports-109800-employees-passing-microsoft/


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## edcopp (Oct 9, 2004)

New jobs? 

This is America, where millions do very well with no job at all.:hysterical:


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## MoonRiver (Sep 2, 2007)

plowjockey said:


> They will start by creating jobs for themselves.
> 
> Get a license and open a plumbing business, or doing auto repair. When they get busy (and they will) hire employee or two. Make designer body soaps in your kitchen, If they hit, get bigger at another location.
> 
> Most evry business starts out very small.


Those aren't new jobs. For every plumbing or auto repair job created, one is lost. The overall number of jobs is decreasing, not increasing.


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## MoonRiver (Sep 2, 2007)

plowjockey said:


> Amazon has 110,000 employees, who must be dong something, for a paycheck.
> 
> http://www.geekwire.com/2013/amazon-reports-109800-employees-passing-microsoft/


And how many hundreds of thousands have lost their job because companies either closed or laid off workers because of competition from Amazon. Amazon is winning because it is more efficient.


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## where I want to (Oct 28, 2008)

MoonRiver said:


> Those aren't new jobs. For every plumbing or auto repair job created, one is lost. The overall number of jobs is decreasing, not increasing.


I don't think that's true. I would have some work done if there were a bit lower prices, which there might be if the trades had more people working competetively. I might do it anyway if the goverment had not managed to cut my income while raising taxes and fees. And the trades might not demand so much if they did not have so many taxes and fees to pay either.


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## MoonRiver (Sep 2, 2007)

where I want to said:


> I don't think that's true. I would have some work done if there were a bit lower prices, which there might be if the trades had more people working competetively. I might do it anyway if the goverment had not managed to cut my income while raising taxes and fees. And the trades might not demand so much if they did not have so many taxes and fees to pay either.


Just look at the advances in plumbing supplies/tools in the last 20 years and you will see 1 plumber does more in an 8 hour day today than 10 years ago. Plus add in improved dispatch and on demand parts. 

I was just reading about a new on demand hot water heater (about the size of a football) that is cheap enough to install wherever you need hot water and eliminates the need to run hot water pipes. Newer houses as they age will need less maintenance than older houses.


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## where I want to (Oct 28, 2008)

MoonRiver said:


> Just look at the advances in plumbing supplies/tools in the last 20 years and you will see 1 plumber does more in an 8 hour day today than 10 years ago. Plus add in improved dispatch and on demand parts.
> 
> I was just reading about a new on demand hot water heater (about the size of a football) that is cheap enough to install wherever you need hot water and eliminates the need to run hot water pipes. Newer houses as they age will need less maintenance than older houses.


True in some respects but think on all those innovations like automatic faucets, temperature regulating showers, fridges with auto ice and water- all things that tend to go wrong. Then there is all that lovely "aging infrastructure" in older homes to replace with their accompaning "as long as we're doing that, I might as well"s. Such as those instant water heaters that certainly do not last as long as the old pipes and now there may be 5 in a house needing replacement at regular intervals.


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## MoonRiver (Sep 2, 2007)

where I want to said:


> True in some respects but think on all those innovations like automatic faucets, temperature regulating showers, fridges with auto ice and water- all things that tend to go wrong. Then there is all that lovely "aging infrastructure" in older homes to replace with their accompaning "as long as we're doing that, I might as well"s. Such as those instant water heaters that certainly do not last as long as the old pipes and now there may be 5 in a house needing replacement at regular intervals.


I'm not saying that a person can't make a good living as a plumber. What I am saying is that there is no compelling reason for the number of plumbers to increase. 

We need about 200,000 new jobs a month just to keep up with people entering the workforce. I can't see where plumbing will do much more than replace existing plumbers as they retire.


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## plowjockey (Aug 18, 2008)

MoonRiver said:


> And how many hundreds of thousands have lost their job because companies either closed or laid off workers because of competition from Amazon. Amazon is winning because it is more efficient.


Very true, Its just a shift in the business model of retailing.

Amazon (and other "etailers") business mean a much larger amount in truck and local parcel shipping demand, which now has new available jobs. That means more fuel, more tires, new trucks, more tucks stops, truck repairs, road repairs, etc.


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## bowdonkey (Oct 6, 2007)

plowjockey said:


> Very true, Its just a shift in the business model of retailing.
> 
> Amazon (and other "etailers") business mean a much larger amount in truck and local parcel shipping demand, which now has new available jobs. That means more fuel, more tires, new trucks, more tucks stops, truck repairs, road repairs, etc.


More tucks stops!:teehee:


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## Sawmill Jim (Dec 5, 2008)

bowdonkey said:


> More tucks stops!:teehee:


More lot lizards :shrug: :teehee:


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## plowjockey (Aug 18, 2008)

bowdonkey said:


> More tucks stops!:teehee:


For sure.

A big truck stop can sell a million gallons of diesel - *per month* and most are packed with trucks each night. They sell a lot of $4 bags of potato chips $2 cups of coffee..

Several have opened in this area in the last few years. There would probably be more, but the locals fight, usually successfully, to keep them out. Drugs, traffic, street damage, prostitution, etc.


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## joebill (Mar 2, 2013)

Make something and sell it. Don't ask anybody's permission or advice.

Visualize what it is you are going to make and who is going to buy it and how much they will pay and how much it will cost you. You will work too cheap in the beginning, because you have to learn the ropes.

Do NOT put your project into words for ANYONE until it is completed. if you do, your concept will shrink to fit the available language and never achieve it's full potentiol, because as soon as you speak of it in ordinary terms, it will become ordinary in your mind, never to be saved from that fate. Language converts dreams of the most exaulted sort into the ordinary things that can only be described by ordinary language.

You cannot build a cellphone on your own, and probably not an automobile, at least not for the prices they can make them for in China and Mexico, and not one at a time. Forget it.

BUT!....You can make a lovely walnut pod for a cellphone that is lovely to behold and will protect it from harm, and you can also make a wonderfull solid wood briefcase from exotic woods that will draw every eye in a room, and SOMEBODY will buy the best and most expensive briefcase in the world, simply because he believes he deserves it.

You can also make a gearshift knob for the most expensive car from an antique persimmon wood and brass golf club head that you can buy in a thrift store for $5, polish it 'till it looks like a million bucks, convert it to that purpose with a bit of work and sell it on the world wide web, then go out and buy more clubs and do the same, also slicing the faces off of some of them and making them into belt buckles for the "golfing set".

Now, all those things are reduced to language, because I cannot convey them any other way, but pretend i did not describe them, that they are original ideas in your mind, and see how wonderfull you can make those ideas grow in your mind into "must haves" for those who can afford them. That is the beginning.

It is why people speak of having a "vision" instead of a "concept".

I have lived by this process most of my adult life, and every business disaster came at me only when I abandoned it....joe


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## where I want to (Oct 28, 2008)

If it was so clear to all of us where the next big thing was, we would all be doing it. No- we'll just have to wait for the next talented, determined person to enlighten us.


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## MoonRiver (Sep 2, 2007)

where I want to said:


> If it was so clear to all of us where the next big thing was, we would all be doing it. No- we'll just have to wait for the next talented, determined person to enlighten us.


But we have some starting points. 

We know that there will be breakthrough technology in energy. We know that drug companies are starting to explore the ocean for new drugs. We know that there will be a giant breakthrough in computers. We know that robots will keep getting smarter and smarter. We know that technology will become more integrated with humans. And on and on.

We just don't know exactly what these breakthroughs will be.


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## joebill (Mar 2, 2013)

Let me try this again.

You don't NEED the "next big thing". When it comes along, millions of people will be breakiing their noses against one another's foreheads rushing to fill a gap that has already been filled by the best and brightest marketeers and importers in the universe!

What you need is your own nitche that is profitable to YOU, but so small that there is no room for those seeking billions of dollars, so involved and skill specific that it will take anybody else months to catch up, and since you have already trained yourself in everything required it is not worth their while.

The "next big thing" will bankrupt more people than it will make wealthy, but those few that get rich at it will get SO rich that everybody else will want to get in on it after it is too late. The "next big thing" is a lottery ticket.

The market today is so very large and accessable through the web that you should be seeking the "next very small thing" that will be ignored by all the folks seeking "the next big thing"......Clear?......Joe


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## MoonRiver (Sep 2, 2007)

joebill said:


> Let me try this again.
> 
> You don't NEED the "next big thing". When it comes along, millions of people will be breakiing their noses against one another's foreheads rushing to fill a gap that has already been filled by the best and brightest marketeers and importers in the universe!
> 
> ...


But the purpose of the thread was to discuss where the new jobs will come from to meet employment demands. Month after month we see thousands of people being laid off, so where are they supposed to find new jobs? Approving the Keystone pipeline and shipping lng overseas will result in a couple of million jobs, but that's not enough. What are other big areas that can create a demand for a million or more jobs?


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## joebill (Mar 2, 2013)

You are looking at creating and maintaining heavy industry, and our government, at this time, is the sworn enemy of heavy industry. Ain't gonna happen until and unless we trim the claws of the EPA and elect an administration that likes heavy industry. It's a long road back, but not impossible. You are looking for one or two or three industries that will produce those million jobs, and any industry capable of doing that is going to be a target of government, labor, tree huggers and every other potent and irrational force in the Western Hemisphere.

BUT! those million job-seekers can employ themselves, and I'd wager that a lot of them already are. Do you honestly believe that all those folks who have been on extended unemployment bennies for years on end simply sit by the tv and watch re-runs of "Charmed" all day every day? Nope. The majority of them are working under the table somewhere. The men are doing construction or sweeping out stores or whatever and the women are waiting tables or babysitting or doing a lot of what we used to consider man-stuff before men got so very womanish. I really have no idea WHAT all of them are doing, man OR woman, but they didn't go from making a fair living to living off of unemployment overnight and not look for and find ways to plug the gap.

I used to own sharpening and repair shops, and most of my sharpening customers were guys on unemployment and disability who were having me sharpen saws so they could work full time as firewood cutters, construction guys, cabinet makers, some with fulltime cabinet shops in their garqages. I started my first shop with my vacation check from the copper mine where I worked until it went on strike. I had to quit my job to get the vacation check, but I was quitting anyway, so no big deal.

Here is an example of something that has not happened yet, but I could do it any day I wanted to. I just might, too.

Lead, what with all the EPA crap, is getting more and more expensive. 5 pounds of lead shot now brings about $30 online. Lots of guys wanting to buy lead, for some reason...

I start researching lead mines hereabouts and find out there were a LOT of them back in the 40's, and most of them have not been active since then. Some are placer (surface) mines, which means that all I have to do is drive up an existing bad road with a plastic bucket and go stir up some galena on or near the surface. It'll have a bit of antimony and may have a bit of zinc included, but I can melt it into bars, skim off the dross, check it for specific gravity and hardness, cast up a few hundred bullets and shoot them, making sure it performs well, and have a product that I can sell to reloaders at, perhaps $3 per pound. It doesn't take many plastic buckets of galena to equal 1000 pounds, but let's say it takes two weeks of piddling to have it gathered up and cast into ingots in a cupcake pan and sold. That's a net of something like $35 per hour.

If I get ambitious, I can go ahead and file on the claim, but that subjects me to inspections and stuff, so why would I bother? Nobody cares or wants to jump the claim, because lead smelting in a big way is against the law in this country, so only the little guy doing it in his back yard is able to earn a living at it. Make it into a big deal and you have the whole orgaized anti-industry crowd all over you in a flash.

Take a bit of care, do it ourside and stay upwind, let the wind carry the fumes off into the desert where there is nothing and nobody to harm, and don't try to turn it into a major industry, and you are good to go.

What I'm telling you is that there IS NO single industry thatt can didge all the forces that are against heavy industry, but there are certainly a million jobs out there for people who will create their own jobs in small ways and keep those jobs small enough to slip through the cracks of government but large enough to make a decent living.

For those who ABSOLUTELY have to have a job with a garenteed 40 hours and a paycheck waiting every friday at 5 oclock, get accomstimed to saying "Welcome to walmart!" with a smile on your4 face....Joe


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## Nevada (Sep 9, 2004)

deaconjim said:


> Yvonne's hubby said:
> 
> 
> > Most of my adult life I have created my own jobs. I never cared much about making the other guy richer.
> ...


I already know that you don't want my advice, but I've been doing that for a long time. What I can tell you is that the product or service you sell isn't as important as the promotion. Of course it's important to find a product or service that you understand better than most and be able to provide it for a competitive price, but if you can't promote your product or service effectively it won't matter.

My "leg up" in the dialup Internet business was Google. During the years 2000 to 2003 I acquired more than 1,000 subscribers. Google was in its infancy back then so I could dominate the search engines. That opportunity is largely gone now. Traffic is still available at Google but not nearly to the extent that it used to be. But Google isn't the only marketing opportunity.

I recommend that you find a product or service that has universal appeal, as opposed to local appeal. As you can see by my signature line, I offer hosting services. I'm not actively promoting that service for unrelated reasons, but I still keep a hand in it. That's not a bad example. It's a high competition business, but the product can be provided for very little cost and it has universal appeal.


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## davel745 (Feb 2, 2009)

plowjockey said:


> They will start by creating jobs for themselves.
> 
> Get a license and open a plumbing business, or doing auto repair. When they get busy (and they will) hire employee or two. Make designer body soaps in your kitchen, If they hit, get bigger at another location.
> 
> Most evry business starts out very small.


it used to be that way but you cant open a business now without jumping through hoops especially a plumber.


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## Nevada (Sep 9, 2004)

davel745 said:


> it used to be that way but you cant open a business now without jumping through hoops especially a plumber.


Being successful in any business requires a certain amount of dedication. Even with domain hosting you have to become a Linux server jock and understand common hosting applications.


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## coolrunnin (Aug 28, 2010)

Nothing like a good 'ol can't do American attitude i reckon.


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## joebill (Mar 2, 2013)

Of course you can be a plumber without jumping through a lot of hoops! if you know how to do the work, put an ad in Craigslist, another on the bullitin board at the laundry mat, and spread the word amonst friends and family. You are a plumber!

Do a good job at reasonable prices, you will get more work. Do a lousy job at terrible prices, you won't be a plumber for long, so you won't have to worry about the hoops.

If you are handy around the house or business, you are a handyman. A handyman is worth at least three or four times what he would draw in wages for doing the same work as an employee. AND, if he pisses off one customer, he doesn't lose his entire living. Just the one customer.

yeah, unlicensed, you are not going to get jobs of plumbing entire apartment complexes, but you can dang sure get the calls to stop a gushing leak, clear a drain, rod out a plugged sewer, and while you are there you can offer to stop all the dripping faucets in the house for another flat rate of $50 per house. You can also work for landlords as the "go to" guy foir all of the tennants of one particular landlord. Have him show you the bills he has been paying for specific services and tell him if you get ALL his buisness, you'll cut him a deal.

OR, you could go ahead and jump through those hoops.

OR, you can practice saying "welcome to Walmart".

We all have to make choices and take some action on our own behalf. Even to be a greeter at Walmart, so why not shoot a little higher?....Joe


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## MO_cows (Aug 14, 2010)

coolrunnin said:


> Nothing like a good 'ol can't do American attitude i reckon.


I think there's a big difference between having a "can't do" attitude and facing reality. 

Some people are fantastic plumbers, carpenters, auto mechanics, whatever the skill, but they aren't qualified to run their own business. Being good at your trade, able to keep some records and do some math isn't enough anymore! Some people just aren't up to it, and they know it. Better to admit you can't do it than go in debt up to your eyeballs before you figure it out.


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## coolrunnin (Aug 28, 2010)

MO_cows said:


> I think there's a big difference between having a "can't do" attitude and facing reality.
> 
> Some people are fantastic plumbers, carpenters, auto mechanics, whatever the skill, but they aren't qualified to run their own business. Being good at your trade, able to keep some records and do some math isn't enough anymore! Some people just aren't up to it, and they know it. Better to admit you can't do it than go in debt up to your eyeballs before you figure it out.


Overcome, adapt, and persevere...or continue wringing your hands on internet forums your choice


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## Nevada (Sep 9, 2004)

coolrunnin said:


> Overcome, adapt, and persevere...or continue wringing your hands on internet forums your choice


...or retire like I did.


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## where I want to (Oct 28, 2008)

MO_cows said:


> I think there's a big difference between having a "can't do" attitude and facing reality.
> 
> Some people are fantastic plumbers, carpenters, auto mechanics, whatever the skill, but they aren't qualified to run their own business. Being good at your trade, able to keep some records and do some math isn't enough anymore! Some people just aren't up to it, and they know it. Better to admit you can't do it than go in debt up to your eyeballs before you figure it out.


The trouble that some people "face reality" long before they come close to being real. When the question to the five year old is "What do you want to be when you grow up?" I bet not one of them said self-employed. It's a learned thing- frequently learning by bad mistake.
I had my bout of self-employment when I needed a job and little was to be had. It wasn't that I was somehow suited by nature to do it, it was I needed some income. I frankly invented my work because I offered my services that I had developed because I could not afford to hire what I could do for myself and found customers hungry for them.
I personally rather have scheduled time off and benefits so I did not stay self-employed. But I sure learned a lot about myself and other people doing this. The best thing is I learned that I can take care of myself with my own two hands. A very liberating feeling.


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## joebill (Mar 2, 2013)

personally, i think that "business skills" are overated for one man operations. I also think that every small business can be tested and started without going into debt. You just have to start small enough......Joe


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## Evons hubby (Oct 3, 2005)

joebill said:


> personally, i think that "business skills" are overated for one man operations. I also think that every small business can be tested and started without going into debt. You just have to start small enough......Joe


Yeppers, start small and let the business build itself up. It will become very obvious very soon if the business is going to succeed or not.


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## Nevada (Sep 9, 2004)

Yvonne's hubby said:


> Yeppers, start small and let the business build itself up. It will become very obvious very soon if the business is going to succeed or not.


You can usually do that, but not always. Some businesses are always low overhead. Then there are those that you can start small and expand as needed. Finally there are businesses that are more of an all or nothing kind of thing.


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## Sawmill Jim (Dec 5, 2008)

Yvonne's hubby said:


> Yeppers, start small and let the business build itself up. It will become very obvious very soon if the business is going to succeed or not.


Yep and always be on the look out for other people supplying you with idea's . Days gone by i have made money doing really good car clean up . Could get several now from a dealer to do at the minimum of $100.00 each ,not great but beats a snow ball at supper time :awh: To cold I don't want them :smack

Never complicate a small business :smack Cash is the King .:clap:

Joebill People are stuck on the book keeping for someone else idea . Also lead can still be had from scrap dealers or tire shops if non is in ones area . I saw on flee bay where some were trying to sell #1 copper wire at a really high markup price as the poor mans metal for holding for future selling :clap: 

Another thing if one was wanting to keep books for tax purposes one should be able to have a nice wright off after all deductions are took . Hey even the Gov knows most business lose money the first few years :run:


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## 7thswan (Nov 18, 2008)

New Jobs! Delivery people for all those people that don't/won't work. Don't ya know, they should have free delivery of food and grocerys and a new TV to watch. Maybe some warm Jammies, like the Obamacare Jammie guy.


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## MO_cows (Aug 14, 2010)

coolrunnin said:


> Overcome, adapt, and persevere...or continue wringing your hands on internet forums your choice


I know someone who inherited a small family business that already had been a going concern for 25 years or more. He was a skilled craftsman at doing the work, was not a slacker or a dummy, yet a few short years later they were totally out of business, his body was shot from doing the work, and as a special parting gift, the IRS will hound him until the day he dies. I'll say it again - not everyone is cut out to run a business! 

A one-person business, I think of as a "subsistence business". There has to be a reason why most people don't do this as a career but a stop-gap measure between jobs. Seems like it is a difficult balancing act between finding enough work to subsist on, or tactfully turning down work when there is more than one person can handle. Kudos to the ones who pull it off. Again, I have seen examples of this "one man band" approach where the person would have been much better off doing something else. 

You can call it "wringing hands", that's your right and your perspective. I think of it as facing the cold, hard truth. Most people don't have the smarts or the skills to successfully run a business.


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## joebill (Mar 2, 2013)

Sawmill Jim said:


> Yep and always be on the look out for other people supplying you with idea's . Days gone by i have made money doing really good car clean up . Could get several now from a dealer to do at the minimum of $100.00 each ,not great but beats a snow ball at supper time :awh: To cold I don't want them :smack
> 
> Never complicate a small business :smack Cash is the King .:clap:
> 
> ...


We went to a Vista guy in 1976 and he told us to go buy a bookeeping ledger at the office supply and buy a new insert every year, and we have never done anything different since then. Fill in the blanks, and you are home free. When you start deducting your business mileage at fifty cents per mile, you start smiling real wide.

yeah, wheel weights can be bought for bullet casting and then melted and cleaned and sold for about a buck a pound or so, but the soft lead is more valuable and I'd rather poke around in the mountians digging lead for a few days than to run around town calling on tire shops and paying for the stuff.

I'm more intent onhaving a good life and only answering to myself than I am on making a million bucks, so I try to avoid all the cities i can. if I was younger and more ambitious and knew what I have learned over the past 4 decades, I could probably have both, but I'm pretty content to just stumle along until I can't stumble any more.....Joe


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## Sawmill Jim (Dec 5, 2008)

MO_cows said:


> I know someone who inherited a small family business that already had been a going concern for 25 years or more. He was a skilled craftsman at doing the work, was not a slacker or a dummy, yet a few short years later they were totally out of business, his body was shot from doing the work, and as a special parting gift, the IRS will hound him until the day he dies. I'll say it again - not everyone is cut out to run a business!
> 
> A one-person business, I think of as a "subsistence business". There has to be a reason why most people don't do this as a career but a stop-gap measure between jobs. Seems like it is a difficult balancing act between finding enough work to subsist on, or tactfully turning down work when there is more than one person can handle. Kudos to the ones who pull it off. Again, I have seen examples of this "one man band" approach where the person would have been much better off doing something else.
> 
> You can call it "wringing hands", that's your right and your perspective. I think of it as facing the cold, hard truth. Most people don't have the smarts or the skills to successfully run a business.


To a large part I agree ,there are also those working 50 hour weeks that can't manage a dollar to save their life . As has been said there in no cure for stupid :awh: If the auto you drive to work cost five years of your pay you could fall in those numbers . In business you never spend your seed money or buy useless things because some advertiser says you need it. If it don't pay its way or increase your money don't buy it . I never have spent money 30 years ahead of my income either . :awh:

Lots of my kin folks never saw a dollar that they couldn't leverage into a large debt . :smack


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## joebill (Mar 2, 2013)

MO_cows said:


> I know someone who inherited a small family business that already had been a going concern for 25 years or more. He was a skilled craftsman at doing the work, was not a slacker or a dummy, yet a few short years later they were totally out of business, his body was shot from doing the work, and as a special parting gift, the IRS will hound him until the day he dies. I'll say it again - not everyone is cut out to run a business!
> 
> A one-person business, I think of as a "subsistence business". There has to be a reason why most people don't do this as a career but a stop-gap measure between jobs. Seems like it is a difficult balancing act between finding enough work to subsist on, or tactfully turning down work when there is more than one person can handle. Kudos to the ones who pull it off. Again, I have seen examples of this "one man band" approach where the person would have been much better off doing something else.
> 
> You can call it "wringing hands", that's your right and your perspective. I think of it as facing the cold, hard truth. Most people don't have the smarts or the skills to successfully run a business.


A service business is a balancing act, but making a product or two or five and selling them is not.

You make stuff and sell it. if sales go faster than manufacturing, you back off on sales or let folks know they will have to wait. If manufactured goods starts to build up and sales slow down, you stop making stuff and start working on sales.

Reduced to it's most simple elements, it is quite simple. Complicated beyond what it needs to be, it is the opposite. We can ALL be caught outside our element, me especially, and most folks who are in business have had troubles dealing with things we were not designed for, and those troubles can be quite serious, but that is the best reason to start simple, keep it that way, and only complicate it if you are absolutely sure of what you are doing.

The "one man band" businesses i know are amongst the highest earners in their respective areas, second only to the large businesses and large farms and ranches, and are hardly subsistance businesses. Most have been doing their stuff for over 25 years each and have raised families and paid off their property doing what they do. They might be able to do better if they worked for large corporations or government in relatively high positions, but they could be fired at the drop of a hat and have nothing, while nobody can fire them from their own business. There are different kinds of security, and for me, being secure means that I am not at anyone's mercy for my livelyhood...Joe


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## Sawmill Jim (Dec 5, 2008)

joebill said:


> We went to a Vista guy in 1976 and he told us to go buy a bookeeping ledger at the office supply and buy a new insert every year, and we have never done anything different since then. Fill in the blanks, and you are home free. When you start deducting your business mileage at fifty cents per mile, you start smiling real wide.
> 
> yeah, wheel weights can be bought for bullet casting and then melted and cleaned and sold for about a buck a pound or so, but the soft lead is more valuable and I'd rather poke around in the mountians digging lead for a few days than to run around town calling on tire shops and paying for the stuff.
> 
> I'm more intent onhaving a good life and only answering to myself than I am on making a million bucks, so I try to avoid all the cities i can. if I was younger and more ambitious and knew what I have learned over the past 4 decades, I could probably have both, but I'm pretty content to just stumle along until I can't stumble any more.....Joe


Yep wish I was closer .:clap: But here there is no lead to be had . City's I stay away from too . At present I run scrap metal to a small town about 50 miles away . I even tossed my circle mill in the last load and got all my money I invested in it ,so i had several years of free use minus my labor of putting the mill together . 

Yes I keep things real simple no money no buy . I had 11 leaks in this house roof before I found the cash for a roof . Roof didn't make money the equipment for the mill did :run:


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## Nevada (Sep 9, 2004)

joebill said:


> A service business is a balancing act, but making a product or two or five and selling them is not.
> 
> You make stuff and sell it. if sales go faster than manufacturing, you back off on sales or let folks know they will have to wait. If manufactured goods starts to build up and sales slow down, you stop making stuff and start working on sales.


The beauty of selling network services, such as Internet connectivity and domain hosting, is that the number of units you can sell is only limited by the resources you lease. If you get more subscribers, you simply lease more resources.

Of course, you have to know what you're doing. Not everyone can administrate a Linux server. But once you know the magic of networking your product volume becomes unlimited, and embarrassingly inexpensive.

Marketing and promotion are another story.


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## joebill (Mar 2, 2013)

I always hate to see a good mill die.

I sold my "last" mill a few times but before you know it I was building another one. My LAST "last mill" is about half finished now. I think sawmills make people goofy for sawmills, and I'll never build another one. Been saying that through 4 or 5 of them, already............Joe


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## Sawmill Jim (Dec 5, 2008)

joebill said:


> I always hate to see a good mill die.
> 
> I sold my "last" mill a few times but before you know it I was building another one. My LAST "last mill" is about half finished now. I think sawmills make people goofy for sawmills, and I'll never build another one. Been saying that through 4 or 5 of them, already............Joe


I still got a re saw I could turn into a band sawmill right easy . Just got several other play things to work on . Like buying body shop tools to rebuild a Mustang with. I liked the mill but I was making everyone around here more money than me and I had all the head ache's Sawed a lot of cross ties . :run:


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## deaconjim (Oct 31, 2005)

Nevada said:


> I already know that you don't want my advice, but I've been doing that for a long time. What I can tell you is that the product or service you sell isn't as important as the promotion. Of course it's important to find a product or service that you understand better than most and be able to provide it for a competitive price, but if you can't promote your product or service effectively it won't matter.
> 
> My "leg up" in the dialup Internet business was Google. During the years 2000 to 2003 I acquired more than 1,000 subscribers. Google was in its infancy back then so I could dominate the search engines. That opportunity is largely gone now. Traffic is still available at Google but not nearly to the extent that it used to be. But Google isn't the only marketing opportunity.
> 
> I recommend that you find a product or service that has universal appeal, as opposed to local appeal. As you can see by my signature line, I offer hosting services. I'm not actively promoting that service for unrelated reasons, but I still keep a hand in it. That's not a bad example. It's a high competition business, but the product can be provided for very little cost and it has universal appeal.


Nevada, I'm open to advice from anyone who is successfully running their own business. I have tried a few, and had some success at them, but for unrelated reasons I was never able to make the jump from my 'real job'.

I am now in a position to make that jump if the right opportunity is there, and in fact might even be forced into it at some point. I've looked at a lot of things, but my skill-set is more suited for industrial applications, and health issues will soon get in the way of that type of work anyway. My best option is to explore new worlds, to borrow a phrase, and boldly go where I've never gone before.


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## MoonRiver (Sep 2, 2007)

deaconjim said:


> My best option is to explore new worlds, to borrow a phrase, and boldly go where I've never gone before.


I am exploring the idea that many "jobs" will move under the umbrella of entertainment. Desktops, laptops, tablets, cell phones, etc give us access on demand to any information we want. We all recognize that things like TV and movies are entertainment, but what about online learning, political blogs, and health information?

This is an idea I am still trying to work out, but if I was starting a business today, I would try to see how it fits into the entertainment category. To a large degree, when a business competes for customers, it is competing for their time. And their time is being used up by entertainment. How can you get them to buy your product or service instead of watching a movie, tweeting, or posting on facebook? Think Amazon - an entertaining way to buy goods and services.


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## Tricky Grama (Oct 7, 2006)

Sawmill Jim said:


> To a large part I agree ,there are also those working 50 hour weeks that can't manage a dollar to save their life . As has been said there in no cure for stupid :awh: If the auto you drive to work cost five years of your pay you could fall in those numbers . In business you never spend your seed money or buy useless things because some advertiser says you need it. If it don't pay its way or increase your money don't buy it . I never have spent money 30 years ahead of my income either . :awh:
> 
> Lots of my kin folks never saw a dollar that they couldn't leverage into a large debt . :smack


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## Nevada (Sep 9, 2004)

deaconjim said:


> Nevada, I'm open to advice from anyone who is successfully running their own business. I have tried a few, and had some success at them, but for unrelated reasons I was never able to make the jump from my 'real job'.


There's no reason to jump. Build your online business on the side while working at your regular job. Other than learning new things, which can be all consuming at first, maintaining a server and helping clients doesn't take much of your time. Perhaps less than an hour a day on average. The rewards for becoming a Linux server jock are very real.

In short, if you aren't making enough to quit your regular job then you aren't ready to leave.


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## deaconjim (Oct 31, 2005)

Nevada said:


> There's no reason to jump. Build your online business on the side while working at your regular job. Other than learning new things, which can be all consuming at first, maintaining a server and helping clients doesn't take much of your time. Perhaps less than an hour a day on average. The rewards for becoming a Linux server jock are very real.
> 
> In short, if you aren't making enough to quit your regular job then you aren't ready to leave.


Unfortunately, the jump may not be entirely voluntary. I have some time to prepare, but the light at the end of my tunnel is definitely a train. 

Becoming a "Linux server jock" sounds like an interesting idea, but I have no idea what that is. Can you direct me to information on the subject?


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## Nevada (Sep 9, 2004)

deaconjim said:


> Becoming a "Linux server jock" sounds like an interesting idea, but I have no idea what that is. Can you direct me to information on the subject?


Check your PM.


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## MoonRiver (Sep 2, 2007)

> Rapid advances in artificial intelligence now threaten the jobs of educated white-collar workers





> The threat to jobs stretches beyond the white-collar world. Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) also make possible more versatile robots capable of taking over many types of manual work. âItâs going to decimate jobs at the low end,â predicts Jerry Kaplan, a Silicon Valley entrepreneur who teaches a class about AI at Stanford University. Like others working in the field, he says he is surprised by the speed at which the new technologies are moving out of the research labs.
> âPeople donât understand it, they donât get what itâs going to mean,â adds Mr Kaplan, who says he was âradicalisedâ by a sudden awareness of the job-destroying capabilities of the new technology. âI feel like one of the early guys warning about global warming.â


http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/dc895d54-a2bf-11e3-9685-00144feab7de.html

I think my original question is still unanswered. Where will jobs come from?


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## Nevada (Sep 9, 2004)

MoonRiver said:


> I think my original question is still unanswered. Where will jobs come from?


I asked that same question about 40 years ago. A coworker told me that if I had to ask that I wasn't smart enough to understand the answer. Since that time I just had to assume that smarter people than me were at the helm and running things just fine.

As long as you don't mess with my SS or Medicare I'll be just fine. The next generation can worry about where the jobs will come from. This hamster is off the treadmill.


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## okiemom (May 12, 2002)

MO_cows said:


> I think there's a big difference between having a "can't do" attitude and facing reality.
> 
> Some people are fantastic plumbers, carpenters, auto mechanics, whatever the skill, but they aren't qualified to run their own business. Being good at your trade, able to keep some records and do some math isn't enough anymore! Some people just aren't up to it, and they know it. Better to admit you can't do it than go in debt up to your eyeballs before you figure it out.


 
that is why everyone need some business management classes. higher learning is important in how to think outside the box. no matter whet you do basic knowledge on how to set up books and run a small business will help in almost every job. also in most small jobs they are other family members who will jump in and help do the books as the business grows.Almost all small business start small and grow as the skills are learned to make it bigger. 

You are making the argument that people are not smart enough to be able to figure out what they need to do to get a thing started/keep going. Not everyone has All the skills but someone does.... so find them and get them to help, the internet can teach almost anything, if you are willing to learn if you can't that is lack of ambitions plain as day. Where there is a will there is a way anything less is lazy, you just have to want it bad enough.


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## joebill (Mar 2, 2013)

AMEN, Okiemom!

AND, it is so much easier than it was 25 years ago that the difference is unreal! We used to have to spend around $200 a month or more on yellow pages for anybody to know we were alive, then business phone deposit was around $300 to begin, the trades were lousy with union thugs that would throw dirt on a freshly painted house if you were a freelance painter and looked for any way to shut down a one man non union company.

It took two fulltime bookeepers and an inventory clerk and buyer, all pushing pencils to accomplish what one spouse can now do with a computer after luch and beforfe the kids get home from school. Half the owner's time used to be dedicated to meeting with suppliers who now do everything with email, or you can go to meetings online.

Even moving money used to require granting credit to almost all your customers, but I never do that any more. I place a call;

"Paul, your order is ready. The total with shipping is $577.88, and your Paypal invoice was emailed 5 minutes ago"

He says;
"OK, I just approved it. I assume that means my order will go out today?"

I say;
"Yes, the wife is on the way to the post office. When the aproval comes in, I'll call her cell and give her the go-ahead."

He says;
"Thanks"
So do I.

Try that 25 years ago.

Anybody who can't do business today is making excuses......Joe


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## MoonRiver (Sep 2, 2007)

Quote from Bill Gates at American Enterprise Institute.



> "Software substitution, whether it's for drivers or waiters or nurses â¦ it's progressing. ... Technology over time will reduce demand for jobs, particularly at the lower end of skill set. ... *20 years from now, labor demand for lots of skill sets will be substantially lower.* I donât think people have that in their mental model."


http://www.businessinsider.com/bill-gates-bots-are-taking-away-jobs-2014-3









http://www.businessinsider.com/jobs-that-will-be-lost-to-robots-2014-1



> This is one indication, Mr Summers says, that technical change is increasingly taking the form of "capital that effectively substitutes for labour". There may be a lot more for such capital to do in the near future. A 2013 paper by Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne, of the University of Oxford, argued that jobs are at high risk of being automated in 47% of the occupational categories into which work is customarily sorted. That includes accountancy, legal work, technical writing and a lot of other white-collar occupations.


http://www.businessinsider.com/the-future-of-jobs-the-onrushing-wave-2014-1


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## plowjockey (Aug 18, 2008)

*



Where Will New Jobs Come From?

Click to expand...

*Interesting responses - or lack thereof. 

Heard a talk show recently, that in the future, we may have something like a _leisure class_ ( I forget the exact term he used), of people In America.

They don't work jobs, but get get very basic living expenses from the Government. They are made up of the unemployed, writers, musicians, artists, free thinkers, retirees, disabled, people with drug problems and people just not interested in working, etc. All of the money they make gets spent right back into the economy.

Not everybody will go for it, since many people actually will _want_ to work, for the big money, or run businesses, as well as the satisfaction of actually working a career, but there simply will not be enough jobs for everybody. 
An internet Company might have 15 employees but make millions, in annual revenue.

Those that do choose to work and find jobs/businesses, will make very high pay, but will also pay high taxes, that will be used to support the "leisure class". When asked about it being socialism, the reply was it's just doing something with "these people" other than just letting them starve, which, one way or anther would hurt _everyone_, in the long run.

Between SSI, SSDI, Medicare, medicaid, SNAP, WIC, SEC8, school lunches, HUD, etc, we are already heading in that direction.

don't shoot the messenger on this one.


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