# wow the price of beef!



## farmgirl6 (May 20, 2011)

anyone who knows me knows I could never eat my cows, so I end up going to the market for organic beef, wanted a couple of filets for dinner, $30 a pound, good goggly moogly, had no idea had gone up that much..friend getting back into cows, told me she was looking at an eight month old unregistered Dexter heifer for $1000.00 before I bought those steaks I would have thought that was a lot, now considering how very lovely she is and hand broke (she wants a milker) that seems like a steal, she bought a week old bottle bull calf for $250 bucks, and am learning now that is very fair...wow!! why on earth is beef going to bloody high??


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## K-9 (Jul 27, 2007)

Part of it is blamed on the loss of the 100,000 plus head of cattle in the winter storm this spring in North and South Dakota placing a strain on the amount of beef available.


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## AngusLover (Jan 12, 2014)

Severe and extreme droughts, fires, extreme winter storms last winter, etc. All driving the market to record highs.
We already were having a cattle shortage. It's much worse now.
Were seeing unbelievable record prices right now.
$4,000 for bred Holstein heifers
$600 for wet umbilical drop calves
$3.15 a pound for beef heifers
Absolutely unbelievable!
This is only the beginning of the higher meat prices I believe. Takes a while for the prices to catch up to live weight prices.


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## idigbeets (Sep 3, 2011)

We've got another 2-3 years of high prices before supply is back.


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## collegeboundgal (Jul 17, 2005)

keep a close watch over your herds. prices like these make cattle a tempting target for thieves. (worth the risk)


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## Ronney (Nov 26, 2004)

collegeboundgal said:


> keep a close watch over your herds. prices like these make cattle a tempting target for thieves. (worth the risk)


This comment is a reality I'm afraid. I no longer graze sheep on my road paddocks and when I do, they are brought in at night. This is because I've lost 6 to two legged predators who felt they had more right to them than I did. 

Beef is expensive everywhere and I have no compunction about hanging up one of our own - and we're not paying anything like what you are but it's still way more than I'm prepared to pay. Fillet here is about $NZ33.00 a kilo which is about 2.2lb.

Cheers,
Ronnie


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## Dixie Bee Acres (Jul 22, 2013)

It's too salty for my wallet, hoping and praying for a good deer hunting season this year again.


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## mwilken03 (Oct 13, 2013)

The cattle stealing was starting to get pretty bad around here. The local authorities informed everyone they have the right to shoot on site it slowed down. 
Although i have not researched it, i have been told we are selling beef to china. They are having trouble producing enough so they are buying ours. That would also explain a price jump.


Farm junkie


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## Dixie Bee Acres (Jul 22, 2013)

Wasn't Brazil and other south American countries really jumping in the beef cattle game heavily over the past 15-20 years or so? Are they too dealing with shortages?


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## chester5731 (Jul 6, 2011)

I have been buying week old bull calves. I bought some from the usual place monday and paid $200 each which is what they have been all summer. They are drying up for the next six months so I called another fella. He told me $335 each. Where does it end?


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## simi-steading (Sep 27, 2012)

collegeboundgal said:


> keep a close watch over your herds. prices like these make cattle a tempting target for thieves. (worth the risk)


Been quite a few cattle in this area go missing... I'm not talking one or two at a time either... but rather the whole small herd..


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## MO_cows (Aug 14, 2010)

Depending which ag journal you read, the national beef cow herd is the smallest it has been since either the 1950s or 60s. Major drought in the southwest and Texas (no. 1 state for beef production), followed by pretty much nationwide extreme drought in 2012, sent a lot of cattle to slaughter that were still in their production years because there was no grazing or hay for them. Also there was a freak October blizzard that killed tens of thousands of cattle on the high plains last year. 

Beef can't ramp up production nearly as fast as chicken or pork, it takes over 3 years from the time a heifer calf is born until her firstborn calf is ready to become beef.

This is further complicated by the fact that the US is both an importer and exporter of beef, so there are international forces at play, too. 

Long story short, beef isn't going down in price anytime soon.


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## myheaven (Apr 14, 2006)

I just got 3\4 of an organic beef steer for 2.45 cut wrapped and in my freezer. I guess it pays to do favors for others.


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## ramiller5675 (Mar 31, 2009)

myheaven said:


> I just got 3\4 of an organic beef steer for 2.45 cut wrapped and in my freezer. I guess it pays to do favors for others.


Was that $2.45/lb hanging weight or live weight?


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## myheaven (Apr 14, 2006)

Hang weight.


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## FarmerDavid (Jul 16, 2012)

myheaven said:


> I just got 3\4 of an organic beef steer for 2.45 cut wrapped and in my freezer. I guess it pays to do favors for others.


Just curious is that finished with organic corn or just fed organic grass?


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## myheaven (Apr 14, 2006)

Organic grass, corn, sunflower and oats.


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## AngusLover (Jan 12, 2014)

chester5731 said:


> I have been buying week old bull calves. I bought some from the usual place monday and paid $200 each which is what they have been all summer. They are drying up for the next six months so I called another fella. He told me $335 each. Where does it end?



That's so cheap!! Holy cow! 
Holstein bull calves/ wet umbilical $400 off the dairy $600 at auction
Beef calves are higher


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## haypoint (Oct 4, 2006)

Right now 300 pound beef calf sells at auction for $600 to almost $900
A 500 pound boar hog goes for $100
http://www.davidclarkauction.com/images/9-1-14 Mrkt Report.pdf


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## chester5731 (Jul 6, 2011)

DoubleR said:


> That's so cheap!! Holy cow!
> Holstein bull calves/ wet umbilical $400 off the dairy $600 at auction
> Beef calves are higher


 DoubleR, where are you located?


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## Farmer Jayne (Oct 21, 2013)

3-400 pound feeder steers here are regularly hitting the $5.00 per pound mark. That's beef cows. But the front row buyers are branching out. The guys that normally bought only the best beef calves are now bidding against each other for dairy calves. Anything on the hoof that will gain weight is going for twice as much as last year. We are in N Central Florida


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## Wild_Bill (Aug 4, 2014)

Wow i need a big stock trailer! In ne ohio choice feeders 300-600 around $2.00. We live in a depressed area but nice prices compared to other areas. Btw market hogs are .65-.80 here. Been getting canner cows between .20-.60 depending on how bad they are. Straight on the trailer and straight to slaughter house. Whole cow hamburger at under $1.00 a pound. Store moving to $4.50 lb
I'm making money at $2.00 lb may retire when it's all over lol


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## AngusLover (Jan 12, 2014)

chester5731 said:


> DoubleR, where are you located?



California :/


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## kycn (Nov 27, 2012)

So would now be a good time to buy, having to feed through winter, prices higher? Wait 'til spring? Wait a year or two? I already have a small herd (12), would like to expand.


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## haypoint (Oct 4, 2006)

Everything in farming is in cycles. Heck everything in life is in cycles. If you have troubles, don't worry, they can't last forever. If life's a bowl of cherries, hold on, it won't last.
When corn prices spiked a few years ago, lots of hay ground was plowed up for corn. That drove the price of hay up. Lots of people converted pasture into hay ground. With everyone growing corn, we have a glut of corn and corn prices are half what they were a few years back. Hay was high last year, but mostly back to normal now.

The US exports beef and droughts, high corn prices, high hay prices drove the cost to raise beef to the breaking point. Lots of cattle were slaughtered, reducing the nations cattle herd.
Now comes the tricky part. As prices for slaughter cattle climbs due to consumer demand, Bulls, cows and calves become more valuable, too. The higher cost of beef at the stores drives many to raise a few to raise up and eat, further driving up demand and prices. Anyone with a pasture and a barn can see there is money to be made in cattle. So, lots of new people get into the cattle business, further increasing demand. Big cattle operations forward contract and see that with the dropping price for corn and hay, they can pay a high price for a calf and still profit. When the prices are good, everyone wants to get in or get bigger. That results in fewer cattle at auction or other outlets. That reduces the supply further, driving up the price.
We are at never before seen high prices. In the near future, there will be a trigger. Perhaps a drought, perhaps a hard winter that depletes hay supplies. But when there is a stop to the get in and get bigger, an increase in cattle numbers going to market will drive prices down. Seeing the price drop will encourage others that now is the time to sell, before prices drop further. Those increased numbers flood the market. Fearing big losses, those that bought high, will sell off everything they can. Causing even more supply. Cattle prices will drop faster than they took to get to $3.00 a pound live weight. Those that just got into cattle when the prices were at the highest will lose the most as $2.70 prices turn to .90 prices again.
If those $3.00 a pound Angus steers under 600 pounds were a good deal, the farmer that just sold them would have kept them for himself.
In farming, if you get into something when everyone else is getting into it, you lose. Conversely, if you get in when everyone else is getting out, you stand a better chance to profit. Same old Buy low, sell high versus Buy high, hope.


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## Wild_Bill (Aug 4, 2014)

Fall pricing has started! At the sale, and prices are a dropping. Cheapest feeders I've seen well since last winter lol. Glad i didn't have my big trailer or i would have caught hell from the wife! Maybe next week I'll grab some and sell them out in the spring


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## Awnry Abe (Mar 21, 2012)

kycn said:


> So would now be a good time to buy, having to feed through winter, prices higher? Wait 'til spring? Wait a year or two? I already have a small herd (12), would like to expand.


I have a book about raising beef for profit somewhere in the bookshelf. The name and author escape me at the moment. But the author mentions a 10 year (if I recall correctly) beef market cycle. It rises and falls much like a sine wave based purely on human behavior. Much like Haypoint discussed, there are many folks scrambling right now to increase inventory to take advantage of the of these prices. About the time they all get clicking on all four cylinders and calves are dropping like crazy, the supply will begin to enter a glut period and prices will crash. And back into corn or whatever they will go. I think the conditions (drought, exports, crazy dollar) are making the prices extreme. I do not think the cyclic period will be extreme, though. 

You mentioned "herd" and "expand". I take that to mean a growing cow/calf operation--and you are not simply talking about the seasonal price fluctuations of feeders. This is just my opinion. This is a pure seller's market. Do not buy now. In fact, even though you have "only" 12 ($24K), you should be looking to move out any mistakes and shrink your herd. I know it sounds backwards, but it isn't. A trough will happen a few years from now. Aim for that. In the mean time, find the current glut that has been abandoned for the race to increase beef inventories. Sheep?


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## kycn (Nov 27, 2012)

Haypoint, I appreciate the well written response, much better than I could do. I completely follow you, and that is why I posted the question, hoping to find information from people much more in the know than me. I heard prices are going to be "up" for two to three years yet. So I could buy a cow, even if a little high and get a couple calves out of her, get some of the higher prices for the calves and come out alright. But if this is the peak and its coming down before I could get anything out then I don't want to buy any yet. I'm also looking at the overall picture of my farm. Other threads (like the big one on rotational grazing) talk about undergrazing can be just as bad as over grazing. I have 100 acres and my 20 plus animals are not utilizing half of it yet. I don't want to wait too long before trying to build my herd.


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## msscamp (Sep 8, 2014)

DoubleR said:


> California :/


Southern or Northern? Don't mean to get off topic, but has the drought eased any or is a lot of California still burning up? I really wish there was a way we could have sent you guys about 1/2 of our rain this summer.


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## AngusLover (Jan 12, 2014)

msscamp said:


> Southern or Northern? Don't mean to get off topic, but has the drought eased any or is a lot of California still burning up? I really wish there was a way we could have sent you guys about 1/2 of our rain this summer.



Northern. 
No were running 103* plus right now in September. Ranch wells keep drying up all around us. It's pretty crazy. Add fires to it and it's making things interesting.
I wish you could too! At $18.95 a square bale for alfalfa, grass would be a miracle at this point!


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## kycn (Nov 27, 2012)

Awnry Abe, we must have been typing at the same time last night, I didn't see your post, otherwise I wouldn't have written what I did. You both make a lot of sense. It's going to be hard, but I am going to try to hold off buying anything for awhile. Anyone have opinions on how long this will last? I read somewhere 2-3 years? I hate to be missing out on the good times, if only I could have gotten in a few years earlier......


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## Ceilismom (Jul 16, 2011)

kycn said:


> Awnry Abe, we must have been typing at the same time last night, I didn't see your post, otherwise I wouldn't have written what I did. You both make a lot of sense. It's going to be hard, but I am going to try to hold off buying anything for awhile. Anyone have opinions on how long this will last? I read somewhere 2-3 years? I hate to be missing out on the good times, if only I could have gotten in a few years earlier......


Be patient and persevere, and you stand a good chance of catching the next cycle.


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## FarmerDavid (Jul 16, 2012)

I've never been one to chase cycles but there were several people that jumped in and made good money when corn went up. Unfortunately crop insurance is what made alot of that possible because they sure weren't growing much corn. Hay shot up, I was under stocked and made real good money off of hay for two years. You may have already said but can you hay any of this ground? Probably some traditional hay ground going to pasture. I wish I had a hay barn I'd stock up come spring. Just make sure you know what your hay is worth? Your hauling off alot of nutrients other then just your cost to bale.


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## Awnry Abe (Mar 21, 2012)

All good comments. You should be positioning your herd and operation to still make money when the prime steers are only bringing a buck.


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## Wild_Bill (Aug 4, 2014)

We will most likely not see that again. Same as gas under$2.00. But if you can profit at $1 good for you! Lots of money to be made.


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## kycn (Nov 27, 2012)

Unfortunately our pasture is not good enough to justify the nutrients I would be selling with it. I have 100 acres, with my 20 beef animals I am only using about 1/3 of the land. Any other ideas until I can get more cows?


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## haypoint (Oct 4, 2006)

Google the price of corn over the past 30 years. While I don't expect to see $2.00 gasoline ever again, I'm not so sure that calves won't drop to $1.00.
Who thought corn would be half what it was a few years ago? Cattle farming has wilder fluctuations than crops.


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## FarmerDavid (Jul 16, 2012)

Wild_Bill said:


> We will most likely not see that again. Same as gas under$2.00. But if you can profit at $1 good for you! Lots of money to be made.


As recently as a year ago I'd have told you I'd never sell $2.50 corn again but I did on Friday.


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## FarmerDavid (Jul 16, 2012)

kycn said:


> Unfortunately our pasture is not good enough to justify the nutrients I would be selling with it. I have 100 acres, with my 20 beef animals I am only using about 1/3 of the land. Any other ideas until I can get more cows?


You could run feeders on it. You can buy insurance to protect you from the bottom dropping out if your inclined. If you've got 60 extra
Acres you could probably run quite a few head over winter without alot of hay. With feeders your turn around is much shorter so there is less risk of the bottom dropping out before your ready to sell.


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## haypoint (Oct 4, 2006)

There may well be "bottom dropping out insurance", there's every other kind of insurance.
But many farmers forward contract. They get a promise to buy cattle at a pre-determined price per pound even before they buy calves. Then they buy a futures contract for the amount of grain they'll need. Based on those two numbers, they know what they can pay for calves and still turn a profit. Protects them from the price dropping, but prevents a big windfall if the price skyrockets. Most farmers willingly accept a modest profit over risk.

I think it is called vertically integrated. Instead of just raising calves or just raising feeders or just finishing cattle, an opportunity exists for farmers to round up buyers, coordinate getting the cattle to slaughter, promotion, assist meat buyers in selecting different cuts. Direct marketing to consumers is a lot of extra work and not for everyone. But you can avoid the market swings by preselling meat.

My son has a 2300 pound grass fed, antibiotic free, hormone free, 6 year old Angus bull. He will sell at auction for around $2000. If taken to slaughter, he would produce at least 1000 pounds of lean ground beef, loaded with Omega 3. The asking price of $3.00 a pound would be a good bargain. But who wants to organize 100 people to take 10 pounds of ground beef? 10 people to take 100 pounds?


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## FarmerDavid (Jul 16, 2012)

Haypoint I know a few large local ranchers that have their feeders sold before they buy them. That takes alot of experience. If the cows weigh to much or To little they get discounted hevely. I wouldn't recommend that to a person without many years of experience. 

I don't know alot about the pricing insurance other then our crop insurance agent sells it and its not supposed to be very expensive. 

Is the level of vertical integration you talk about common in your area? Or anywhere else for that matter. Sounds great on paper but does it work in reality?

I'm trying to do it on a small scale myself. Feed my own grain to my own livestock and market directly to an end user. It's a pain in the butt but there is money in it.

I've also never herd of a bull that doesn't have hormones, does he get much bred?


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## haypoint (Oct 4, 2006)

FarmerDavid said:


> I've also never herd of a bull that doesn't have hormones, does he get much bred?


 All the upscale markets claim their beef hasn't any hormones.......:happy2:

Don't get me started on the implants that are long out of the cattle's system before butcher and the public's perception that no added hormones is somehow better or different.

As the "Buy Local" craze sweeps the nation, I think all small farmers/homesteaders should direct market their beef, pork, etc. But it takes work. Lots of talk right now on grass finished beef. Uruguay is better suited to supply that than most small farms. I'd suggest you not try to attract consumers to your beef AND teach them to like the different flavor of grass fed. Supply them with a product that tastes like the corn fed beef they know, but sell them either better quality or better price, preferably both.
In Michigan, I cannot sell meat from my local USDA and MDA inspected slaughter facility. So, I round up 2, 4 or 8 people to buy my fat steer, haul it to the slaughter facility for them. All the owners split the meat.

To sell meat to the public, it has to be a USDA and MDA inspected facility that has a USDA inspector on site at the time of slaughter.


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## FarmerDavid (Jul 16, 2012)

At this point most if my cattle are still going throug the sale barn. Quite frankly with current prices I don't want to assume the risk of holdin on to them What we are selling to close friends and family were selling as wholes, halfs, and 1/4 of a 1/4's. so far our pork is the same way though I think that will change in the spring. 

I don't like grass fed beef and don't really have the pastures to do it if I wanted. just selling it as i currently am I get a much better price on my corn marketing it through my livestock.


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## chuckhole (Mar 2, 2006)

Here in Texas, we are just recovering from a 5-year drought (worst over the last 3 years) that is the worst in over 100 years. I can not tell you how bad it has been. If any of you can possibly imagine not getting a single drop of rain from January to November and having summertime temperatures in the 100's for almost 30 straight days. It has taken a year for the pastures to start to recover so that the Texas ranchers can start to replenish their herds. It cost too much to feed and hay had to be shipped in from many states away. Rounds were going for over $110 a bale if you could get it.

This year has not been so bad. We are seeing some regular rain. Not enough to catch up but at least the stock tanks, lakes and streams are recovering. Some of the Texas lakes were down by over 40 ft. The burn bans have been lifted from the entire state for the first time in 3 years.

The wildfires in Texas a couple of years ago destroyed thousands of acres and some got as close as three miles from my place. When we drive the 130 miles to our country place each weekend, we are still reminded of the damage from the drought and wildfires.

We finally got a couple of heifers to restart our herd. The pasture is not good enough to support much yet and we were lucky to get these two Brangus 1 year olds for $1200 each last May. Premium Cow/Calf pairs are going for $4000 at the sale barn now.

Yeah, it is scary to see untrimmed Brisket go for $4/lb and steaks for $10-12/lb at the grocery store. It won't get better any time soon. It will be at least a couple of years for Texas to recover if we get good weather and rains during that time.


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## kycn (Nov 27, 2012)

What are prices for other people? I don't have much experience with the sale barn, but I've had great experience with Craigslist. Pregnant cow is going in the $2000-2400 range.


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## Awnry Abe (Mar 21, 2012)

kycn said:


> What are prices for other people? I don't have much experience with the sale barn, but I've had great experience with Craigslist. Pregnant cow is going in the $2000-2400 range.


That is about what is going here.


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## myheaven (Apr 14, 2006)

About 3000-3400 here. But that's for angus. I'm tempted to sell my angus.


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## haypoint (Oct 4, 2006)

Figure out the name of the Stock Yard/Livestock Auction near you and get onto their web page. Most post sales prices weekly.
http://www.davidclarkauction.com/images/9-15-14%20Mrkt%20Report.pdf


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## chuckhole (Mar 2, 2006)

One thing I did not really make clear in my rant about the drought here in Texas is that a vast majority of the ranchers here in Texas had to sell off at least 50% or more of their herds from 30 months to about 12 months ago. Feed prices went up 25% during that time and hay doubled in price because of transport costs and availability. Nobody could afford to winter over their full herds. Most sold back to starter herds and the smaller outfits sold out entirely.

I am just a hobbyist but my close neighbors depend on cattle for their retirement income. They had to sell off ALL of their 48 head when everybody else was selling. The prices were quite low back then because of the sell-offs and now, he is having to pay almost double for what he sold for just to replenish.

My two Brangus are with his herd so that they can spend some quality time with his new bull. He is just now getting to be of age where he can do some good.


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## Awnry Abe (Mar 21, 2012)

@chuckhole. I remember hearing about the Texas drought and the glut of cows that got sent to processing. I think 'anguish' is a word that fits drought well.


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## Missourifarmboy (Aug 24, 2014)

Got check in the mail today for a load of steers I took in Tuesday, chaching :nanner:


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## KySam (Dec 1, 2009)

The food stamp program is leading cause of the high beef prices right now.
Believe that its the truth.


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## Trainwrek (Aug 23, 2014)

Up here, the price of locally grown farmers market beef rivals the feedlot stuff you can buy in the supermarket. First time I have been able to compete with and beat commercial prices while still offering a superior product. This is happening across the board not just beef.

I think the tide is turning. These large operations with all the overhead are too tied to inflating costs.


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## Lazy J (Jan 2, 2008)

The price of beef is high for one reason and one reason alone, all comments to the contrary are simply wrong.

The reason the price of beef is so high is the lack of cattle in the feedlots. The is primarily due to the drought which started in the SouthWest in 09 and spread to the Midwest in '12. Because of the drought ranchers and farmers sold their cows because they had no feed to keep them alive. Add to it the fact that pastures int he Midwest were broken to produce corn ans soybeans in reaction to the high prices.

I listened to two Ag Economists specializing in beef cattle this week. They don't see the cycle turning for the next 3 to 5 years so it seems we will be dealing with high beef prices for at least the next couple of years.

Jim


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