# When the trucks stop rolling



## pickapeppa (Jan 1, 2005)

I know there is another thread along these lines but, this is a little different.

When the trucks stop delivering, what do you think is most important to have on hand, besides the obvious food staples?

This is a here and now situation, and we're not fully prepped, but tend to live with a good variety of things on hand at all times. When my cabinets are 'empty' we could probably live on what's in there for three months, minimum. We'd have to get mighty creative, but it's got caloric value.

Say diesel jumped .50 a gallon on Monday and truckers just parked it and stayed home.

What would be first on your list to get right away?

I'm thinking we'd probably fill up the vehicles, the gas cans, propane tank for the grill (if available) then I'd go pick up some soda pop, bottled water, long storing veggies, more beans, rice and flour, some extra cooking oil and butter, and several cartons of eggs. I'd also need to stock some calcium and vitamin D, as we'd most likely be doing with out any milk or cheese unless it's already frozen.


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## DaleK (Sep 23, 2004)

If diesel jumps 50 cents/gallon in the US, it'll still be cheaper than it is here, and truckers here still seem to be doing well. Things adjust. The driving schools here are booked up months ahead. Sure some truckers go out of business but they're replaced just as fast.


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## tamsam (May 12, 2006)

Better get all those things before the trucks park as they are what deliever everything. Sam


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## Andy Nonymous (Aug 20, 2005)

I dunno... one of the things that indicates to me the level of thought on this forum, is the lack of black and white thinking, and while the question at first read may appear b&w, it isn't exactly.

I don't think that as things are currently unfolding, that "the trucks will stop rolling" overnight. Even if fuel jumps a buck a gallon. Sure, some will just 'park it', but within short order, there will be some 'adjustment' made to keep the wheels of commerce rolling, because dollars changing hands = tax revenue. What is more likely to happen is shortages, both of fuel and products to deliver. Gotta remember that we import a hefty portion of both, and as those nations we import from keep seeing the greenback slipping in value, there is going to be less desire to trade real goods for our 'funny paper'. Yes, the price of fuel will increase substantially, but it may easily come to a point that US buyers just can't purchase any more at any price in USD - it just "isn't for sale to you for dollars". At that point, rationing comes into play, and then who gets deliveries of what, where; and who gets to drive?? The US just isn't at all prepared for a substantial contraction of supply of any commodity - be that oil from OPEC, groceries from Mexico, or shoes from China. 

The level of chaos will be directly related to how fast things 'unravel', and how long people have to accommodate - the longer, the better.

For the sake of possible "worst case" speculation, lets say that in the next few months, more banks fail, the fed chokes, foreign investors lose what confidence they had, stocks head further south, and the dollar trades at 3 against the Euro and is accelerating in losing ground daily... Fuel could easily cost $8 a gallon, especially with delivery fees tacked on. It won't happen overnight, it will creep, much like it has, only slightly faster (and faster, and faster). Not everyone has the same paradigm shift point, or the same breaking point. Some will continue to do "business as usual" (mostly government), and others will have to re-invent their lives (probably everyone else). 

No, I doubt the trucks will stop, all over, all at once, but they don't have to to affect *you*, either directly, or by the ever increasing ripples. 

Maybe a better question should be "what would you need so you'd be far less dependent on (or free of) "the system", so that if the trucks stop coming to your neighborhood, for whatever reason, you'd be only a little inconvenienced?


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## pickapeppa (Jan 1, 2005)

Yes, I agree. My question was meant to be a what if, sort of along the lines of if you knew that supplies in your area were going to be short starting on Monday, and there was no telling how long that spell would last, what would you need to ride it out.

I agree, the trucks won't all stop rolling at once, and with everything else you brought up. The problem is, we aren't ready to be free of the system not now, not in five years if continued in last year's economy, and the place where we have the space is not developed enough to live on. It's too far away to consider it our hunting grounds, being a seven hour trek.


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## Cheryl in SD (Apr 22, 2005)

Most trucking companies have fuel surcharges built into their contracts. The higher the price of fuel the more the fuel surcharge is. The base is for fuel at .99 cents a gallon. It is the independent contractors that don't negotiate contracts with fuel surcharges that are hurting. But if there is nothing to haul because people aren't able to buy as much, then there will be a problem.


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## Cyngbaeld (May 20, 2004)

Only thing I am not stocked up on is poultry feed and that is cause I just don't have the FRNs to get so much at a time or to buy extra storage containers. However, with warmer weather the grass is growing and the insect population is increasing so the birds don't need as much. I do need to do some culling soon too.


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## elkhound (May 30, 2006)

the trucks are slowing already.the railroad is upgradeing all its rails to do more hauling.they soon will be able to haul double stacked trailers on their flat beds .they are enlargeing the tunnels as we talk now for this.also they are hauling reacord amounts of coal due to something happening in china aboutt heir coal mines.coal is up over 50% in the last bit out of west virginia by rail now.the less consumers cosume the less need for goods hauled.it is happening now in the buisness...there is major less work now than in the last several years.the entire new rail deal is to get some trucks of the 77 and 81 corridors....plus be more efficent.anyhting you need now you better be getting it soon.


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## Andy Nonymous (Aug 20, 2005)

Pickapeppa, thanks for the clarification. Problem as I see it being about "knowing" the truck(s) won't show up: you won't. Things like this will always be a "surprise" (to the masses), for obvious reasons. Will there be "indicators"? Probably, especially if you have your proverbial "ear to the ground" (contacts that are truck drivers or stockers at the super-whatever). Should you suspect there will be a time they won't come (at least temporarily)? Yup. Plan on there being shortages (or outages) of "critical supplies"? You bet.


Now to answer the question, "what would you need to ride it out?" In the realm of "probabilities" (not the catastrophic extremes), not much other than the continued blessing of sun and rain in due season - I'm a pretty resourceful guy with a pretty low standard of living and a low attachment to 'stuff'. Of course, *any* given person may end up in a situation that defies "probable" or even "possible" planning for, and every person will eventually come to a point that they can no longer keep themselves alive (we will all die of something). You just roll with the punches as best you can, and try to avoid the direct hits (don't be standing on the tracks when the train rolls through, and don't be on the train when it runs out of track).

About your "space": you talking "7 hours" by dark of night? by foot? by bicycle? by Prius? or by Hummer? And if that's your "better place to be", I'd be looking to get there. Either that or get out from under it and find something closer. It's good to remember that when faced with a Gordian Knot - one you can find no definite end of to grasp and start working from, the best thing to do is "cut and run". (yeah, I got that from a fable, but most people don't consider fables for what they were intended for: a fount of good advice).


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## pickapeppa (Jan 1, 2005)

We aren't ready to do that either.  We are tied to a government job of sorts. The property we live on is the one with the mortgage. The raw land up north was a gift from family. We'd like something in a warmer climate, but have held on to it, as we were never in a position to really do much other than sell it. During our entire time together, prices on RE have done nothing but skyrocket. It was enough to make your head spin.

The other thing is, I'm kind of in this planning thing alone, at least until and if a job loss comes along. I have DH only halfway on board. That may turn around within the next year, but it's not looking likely at this point. The only other thing that could make that shift is an obvious economic downturn, or shortages of any kind.

We do have an alternate escape, but it would be tent life, for however long we lasted in the elements. No forest, little wildlife for hunting, little fishing.

Do you really think it's so bad we have to think about starting over from the ground up? I was at least thinking we'd be able to stay here and ride it out.

Oh yes, and the land is seven hours by prius, on a lightly traveled weekend.


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## Andy Nonymous (Aug 20, 2005)

I considered putting this in a PM, Pickapeppa, but then thought it could be more instructive to others as well (not all of whom are registered users, yes YOU, lurker...). I do NOT claim to have any or all the answers specific or exactly applicable to you and your situation, and I'm providing my own opinion only, which may or may not even be "good advice". I'm asking questions and presenting options for you and yours to consider. Caveat emptor.

Sounds to me as if you are living somewhat 'urban', and tightly tied there by employment while paying a mortgage. Meanwhile, your paid-in-full property exists in a colder than desired clime, 7 hours away, and the question is "will things fall apart in a way that we have the time to pack up and move to the retreat and get it established as a homestead before the manure begins passing through the dispersion device?" 

*checks watch* 

Nope. Not likely. Seven hours away severely limits what you can do to prepare the property and yourselves to live there. Of course, the property being a gift from family may mean there is still family right there, and that may be a very useful option to work with. What is their philosophy? Would they find the people here prudent? :cowboy: or wearers of tin foil hats? :TFH: 

Would they turn all grim and cold, if the property you sold? Could they, would they, put you up? Could they, would they, give you sup? Would you raise brown eggs and ham? Would they eat them? or eat Spam? (sorry, been reading Dr Seuss to children for too many years). :sing:

If damaging family relations is not an issue, if at all possible I'd sell the northern property, pay down (or off) your current mortgage and / or other debts, and look for something closer, more established (more livable) that you could spend time on to improve your 'move out' possibilities. If the family there is an asset, I'd hold the property and be prepared to 'walk away' from the mortgaged property, as if the 'downturn' continues as I think it will, there will be very few places that don't sell for pennies on the dollar, compared to their probable high of a couple years ago, and the likelihood of you being able to sell and recoup your investment there are slim to none, though depending on where you are, and the pace of the slide, if the price of fuel keeps climbing without a severe loss of jobs in your area, urban real estate may increase in 'value' for a while as people move closer to their work, and you'll probably see more rural 'values' drop (not factoring in inflation). If you see that happening, "cut and run" (in your Prius). If you get enough to pay off the mortgage, be happy; if some beyond that, rejoice! As jobs likely shrink, the micro 'boom' will do just that: go 'boom'.

If we are looking at a truly minor single or series of disruptions, I'd say "yes, you could ride it out in place", but from my (admittedly "doomer") POV, with the cards that are showing on the table, and the ones that look to be held in play, my bet is that the smell many are noticing is not just a phart in the breeze, but a portent of a feedlot manure pile in the path of a twister. Even after the storm goes through, we're likely to be dealing with a lot of manure, for a long time.

"YAMMV"
Andy


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## pickapeppa (Jan 1, 2005)

Our area did experience a run up in property values of 50% since 2000 across the board. They're having up an down swings but right now are higher than I've ever seen. So, perhaps the values are still climbing here and our bubble hasn't burst.

We are seeing a one to four ratio in foreclosures:sales. It wasn't too long ago and they said that 1 in 70 homes was in foreclosure. Regionally, there are going to be about 2000 job losses in the higher pay scales - union, professional, etc. There aren't 2000 new jobs being created to absorb these people.

So maybe our home value is at it's peak and the downward slide is about to begin. There was some over building, but I think they've filled those homes. We are near an urban setting (chicago) but live a good 10 to 15 outside the outer fringe of the suburbs.

Commutes from this area (and many do commute to Chicago for work) are excessive. If that becomes an issue and people flee toward the center, we'll likely see values drop here. But pennies on the dollar seem a long ways off from where we are now. 

As long as we have employment/income here, we'll be staying put. We'd most likely sell the property instead. There is no family up north anymore unless they're extended unknowns. There is great hunting and fishing, but like you say, too far away to make it worth traveling. We would only request assistance from family as a last resort, preferably if an invite was extended.

It's hard to judge which way this is going to go. All we can do is make our best preps and hope it's enough. If not, life goes on, no matter if it's here or there, or anywhere. We'll get there by hook or by crook.


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## MountAiry (May 30, 2007)

I actually have thought about what would happen if we couldnât get gasoline. We have some stored for the tools my husband uses and stuff, but I donât like the idea of storing much of it near the house.
One thing kind of cool is we are planning on building a nice shed and it wonât be connected to the house. After we get it built, I am gonna have my husband buy some more gasoline cans and fill them up. And any excuse to go âplayâ in the hardware store makes him happy, soâ¦.. we both win! lol


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## Spinner (Jul 19, 2003)

I would pick up the extra fruit trees I still need to plant. 
Top off the gas storage.
Pick up a 5 gallon can of kerosene. 
Stock up on chocolate candy bars. 
Pick up the grandkids.
Then I'd hunker down to "enjoy the ride".


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## pickapeppa (Jan 1, 2005)

Spinner said:


> I would pick up the extra fruit trees I still need to plant.
> Top off the gas storage.
> Pick up a 5 gallon can of kerosene.
> Stock up on chocolate candy bars.
> ...


Sounds like fun.


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## Geary_Johns (Oct 27, 2007)

"Long Pig, it's what's for dinner"


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## Madame (Jan 1, 2003)

Top off the gas tank
Refill all my prescription meds
Stock up on vitamins
Stock up on junk food/ingredients
Buy seeds, garden tools, rabbits and/or chickens (and their food)


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## Collinsfarm (Oct 30, 2007)

If ALL the trucks stop rolling...well, I'm thinking we as a nation will be in a deep, deep canyon. There are a couple of stores not too far away that I might go to to top off a few supplies, but at this point I think we will have to "dance with the date you brung". It's getting downright spooky out there....


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## Aintlifegrand (Jun 3, 2005)

Collinsfarm said:


> If ALL the trucks stop rolling...well, I'm thinking we as a nation will be in a deep, deep canyon. There are a couple of stores not too far away that I might go to to top off a few supplies, *but at this point I think we will have to "dance with the date you brung". It's getting downright spooky out there....*





Agreed....the time is *now* before the trucks do stop....


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## ailsaek (Feb 7, 2007)

Aintlifegrand said:


> [/B]
> 
> 
> Agreed....the time is *now* before the trucks do stop....


:grump: Tell that to my husband. He says I can't order chickens until I get the garage cleaned out, not even bantams. We own land up north near family too, and said family is even into prepping and owns a tractor with a backhoe attachment.


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## Aintlifegrand (Jun 3, 2005)

ailsaek said:


> :grump: Tell that to my husband. He says I can't order chickens until I get the garage cleaned out, not even bantams. We own land up north near family too, and said family is even into prepping and owns a tractor with a backhoe attachment.


Get to cleaning girl!


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## Guest (Mar 5, 2008)

I think Andy N. makes some very good points here.

The only way I can see the trucking industry coming to a halt in a short span of time would be something like what happened after the '05 hurricane season when a good deal of our fuel processing and delivery infrastructure was damaged. In some parts of the country fuel supplies got tight for a while. They eventually loosened up again but what if it had stayed that way for months?

Even then it wasn't that there wasn't ANY fuel, just not enough for our present way of life. If there is still some fuel then some sort of rationing system is going to be instituted so the trucks hauling food, fuel, and so on can get through even if it means the trucks hauling dollar store items get side lined. Not so much as "none at all" but "not much and what there is gets distributed according to some hierarchy of need." 

But in the _long run_ I can see prices rising to the point that shipping gets tight. Again goods will still get transported, but maybe you won't be able to pay for them?

I know there are some Peak Oilers who think we're literally going to run out of fuel and that's that. I don't see it that way. I forsee the price of fuel rising to the point that some, possibly many, simply can't afford just as it is in other parts of the world today. The trucks will still be rolling, just not for the folks who can't pay what it's going to cost. 

.....Alan.


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## Freeholder (Jun 19, 2004)

Madame said:


> Top off the gas tank
> Refill all my prescription meds
> Stock up on vitamins
> Stock up on junk food/ingredients
> *Buy seeds, garden tools, rabbits and/or chickens (and their food)*


This brings up something that has been stated many times on other forums I'm on, but was probably thought too basic to mention here on a homesteading forum: You CANNOT just wait until the last moment to purchase seeds, garden tools, rabbits, and chickens, and expect to be able to feed yourself if all other sources of food have dried up! Madame, you may already know this and have the experience necessary to get started with these things, but there may be people reading here who don't know it, so again I emphasize: If you think that you might need a garden and livestock in order to feed your family at some time in the future, GET THEM STARTED NOW!! Two years ago would have been a better idea, given how things are looking now! It takes TIME to build up your soil and learn how to garden. It takes TIME to get the experience necessary to raise any kind of livestock. It even takes TIME to *find* good breeding stock in many instances. Chickens are pretty easy to locate if you are willing to start with day-old chicks, but it can take a while to find a good source for quality rabbits, goats, sheep, and so on. It isn't worth your time or money to try to survive with less than good quality animals, so don't bother unless you have absolutely no choice. 

Andy and Alan, good posts.

Kathleen


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## hillsidedigger (Sep 19, 2006)

The problems that will result from Peak Oil will occur gradually, not suddenly, maybe taking up to 15 to 25 more years until the price of fuel is so high that the transport of any bulk goods using internal combustion engine vehicles is no longer is worth the costs.

The energy crunch has just begun and there is only one way it can go.


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## Ohio Rusty (Jan 18, 2008)

There was information on Michael Burks website on Sunday about a possible truck strike by the independent truckers in the very near future. You can read the info at: http://michaelsburks.wordpress.com/2008/03/03/truck-drivers-may-strike/

Ohio Rusty ><>


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## turtlehead (Jul 22, 2005)

For us:
Fencing (lots)
Chicken/Rabbit feed and a way to store it in quantity
Fuel
More solar panels and batteries
Some hard-to-save-yourself seeds (brassicas, carrots)
Blue jeans and heavy socks
Fruit trees
LOTS of canning flats
Hand tools

Eventually: get pig and dairy animal from "neighbor" (nearby folks raise cattle and sheep)


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## Callieslamb (Feb 27, 2007)

my list of pick-ups is the same as my goals for this spring.

Lots of canning jars.
Fencing supplies
grass/pasture seed
basic fertilizers
vitamins
Snickers bars


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## Gary in ohio (May 11, 2002)

pickapeppa said:


> I
> Say diesel jumped .50 a gallon on Monday and truckers just parked it and stayed home.


They have to feed their family just like you, regardless of the price, they are not going to park the truck, They just charge more for the delivery of the goods.


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## Madame (Jan 1, 2003)

BlueJuniperFarm said:


> This brings up something that has been stated many times on other forums I'm on, but was probably thought too basic to mention here on a homesteading forum: You CANNOT just wait until the last moment to purchase seeds, garden tools, rabbits, and chickens, and expect to be able to feed yourself if all other sources of food have dried up! Madame, you may already know this and have the experience necessary to get started with these things, but there may be people reading here who don't know it, so again I emphasize: If you think that you might need a garden and livestock in order to feed your family at some time in the future, GET THEM STARTED NOW!! Two years ago would have been a better idea, given how things are looking now! It takes TIME to build up your soil and learn how to garden. It takes TIME to get the experience necessary to raise any kind of livestock. It even takes TIME to *find* good breeding stock in many instances. Chickens are pretty easy to locate if you are willing to start with day-old chicks, but it can take a while to find a good source for quality rabbits, goats, sheep, and so on. It isn't worth your time or money to try to survive with less than good quality animals, so don't bother unless you have absolutely no choice.
> 
> Andy and Alan, good posts.
> 
> Kathleen


You are right. I'm in the process of doing much of this right now. My town won't allow chickens, but I'm hoping to get rabbits before too much longer and am starting a garden this summer.


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## Junkman (Dec 17, 2005)

Today, General Delivery Company, a large well known trucking outfit in Northern WV announced it was shutting down deliveries but would be doing a mechanical maintenance business. When interviewed the owner said the price of Deisel Fuel was just too high to maintain his business. This company has been in business for many many years.


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## mightybooboo (Feb 10, 2004)

Madame said:


> You are right. I'm in the process of doing much of this right now. My town won't allow chickens, but I'm hoping to get rabbits before too much longer and am starting a garden this summer.


Mine doesnt allow chickens either.I have 5.


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## ailsaek (Feb 7, 2007)

mightybooboo said:


> Mine doesnt allow chickens either.I have 5.


Soon as I get the garage cleaned out, so will I. (Mine allows chickens _in theory_,but I have to send certified mail to everyone abutting our land or within 250 feet of it to find out if they mind first )


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## Explorer (Dec 2, 2003)

ailsaek, you might want to consider the other option. Instead of asking permission, beg for forgiveness if caught.


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## ailsaek (Feb 7, 2007)

*grin* That's the idea. Indoor birds, possibly bantams. If I give them 1/3 of the garage, they won't be wanting for space.


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## Karen (Apr 17, 2002)

DaleK said:


> If diesel jumps 50 cents/gallon in the US, it'll still be cheaper than it is here


But aren't your gallons something like 4.5 liters to our 3.8 liters? If so, you're getting like 20% more per gallon than we do; which would make your fuel cheaper.



DaleK said:


> and truckers here still seem to be doing well. Things adjust. The driving schools here are booked up months ahead. Sure some truckers go out of business but they're replaced just as fast.


It just so happens we're talking about this issue in homeschool!

Having drivers isn't the problem at all. You have to first look at certain facts:

1. That in the US, 74% of all goods are shipped by truck. 
2. There are approx. 3.5 million trucks that deliver goods. 
3. Of that, 10% are independent trucks which will be the first to shut down -- That's 350,000 trucks hauling goods. 

Now that might not sound like a lot, but there are other considerations.

All those trucks remaining (companies trucks), approximately, 60% haul mixed goods. Meaning these are not Walmart trucks, or moving trucks, or Kroger or McDonald trucks. They are like "independent" companies. They haul whatever they are hired to haul for companies. They're hands are just as tied as the independents. They can only afford to hit the road if they can make a sensible profit.

The remaining trucks are owned by huge conglomerates; the Walmarts, Publix, McDonalds, Sears, etc. If the stores aren't needing certain (or as much goods), or the stores close -- their trucks go with them.

Now consider that no trucking company is going to be able to just absorb the price of increased fuel, so they have to raise the price of goods.

But wait, there's more! It isn't just the cost of fuel that has gone up. The domino effect doesn't take too long to happen and that cost of doing business has risen immensely. It costs considerably more for those companies for electricity and equipment to run their businesses. The trucking companies raise prices again. Which creates more faltering company closers.

Now add back in those 350,000 independents to the unemployment rate, plus those from all the other company trucks failures; plus the mom and pop stores which can't make it due to costs of goods; plus major companies which can no longer make it -- all due to the cost of goods (let alone fuel).

The cost of oil is going to have a severe domino effect that I feel most people don't get. They seem to see it as it costs more to get to work, or we can't travel, bla bla bla. But it's ENORMOUSLY more serious than that.

Add that all into the equation that the US dollar is falling like crazy and the oil companies are on the verge of demanding to be paid in other than US funds; and well folks, we're in big doo-doo!


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## pickapeppa (Jan 1, 2005)

I wouldn't be surprised if the government steps in first to 'subsidize' somehow to keep the trucks rolling.

It would be devastating to this country to not have products on the shelves at any price. Our economy depends on it, not just the people who spend the money.

Still, I wonder, when the realization will come that it's 'people with money' who drive the economy, and not the money itself.


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