# If this recessession turns into a depression....



## Oldcountryboy (Feb 23, 2008)

worldwide. Do you think there will be another world war?

I know that by the end of the 30's depression there was ww2, but was there a depression right before ww1? Would that be what we could expect if we end up going into a depression again? WW3?


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## avandris (Jun 8, 2007)

There was an economic downturn before WW1 also. I don't know if it was classed as a depression, but it was a factor in the rise of the Kaiser and other issues that helped bring about the war.


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## sgl42 (Jan 20, 2004)

Wars are unfortunately fairly common, and they tend to get more frequent and more intense when there are economic declines and hence more limited resources to fight over. Wars tend to exacerbate the economic decline too, usually causing inflation and scarcity of food, gas, etc. Also, there's usually a major war between the established/declining power and the rising power. 

Based on that, I'd guess there will be a major war sometime in the next 20 yrs between the US and China. Whether it will be worldwide, I don't know. It will probably involve the middle east, due to the oil. No idea whether Japan, Europe, Russia, or other parts of the world will play a major role or not. Altho there's modest tension between China and USA now, I don't think it's enough to lead to a war in the next few years, so I'd guess if we do have one, it would be closer to 20 yrs from now, rather than than in the next few years. 

There may be proxy wars before that tho. The last depression started in 1930. I think the German attack on Poland was in 1939 or so. The US didn't get involved until late 1941 after pearl harbor. Some historians consider the Spanish Civil War, in the early 1930's (?), as a prelude to WWII, as (if i remember correctly) Germany honed their blitzkrieg fighting strategy during their involvement in the spanish civil war.

--sgl


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## palani (Jun 12, 2005)

War exists continually whether bullets fly or not. Check out the concept of the long war (1914 - 1970) here
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_War_(20th_century)

WWI was an outcome of Napolean and the French Revolution in the early 1800's. Events which take place now might have a similar outcome a hundred years from now.

As evidence of the existence of a war at the present time look for a requirement to possess a valid passport when crossing international borders. The passport is a document of war that establishes which "side" you are on.


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## JGex (Dec 27, 2005)

There will always be more wars.... Man is a tribalistic, territorial creature that does not respond well to change or strangers. I hope that if there is a depression in the US that level heads around the planet will prevail and join together to find solutions instead of throwing bombs at each other.


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## Aintlifegrand (Jun 3, 2005)

The wars you will see from now on ( including this one) will be resource wars...mainly oil..they will intensify and crop up in many different places


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## cchapman84 (Jan 29, 2003)

I'm thinking that civil wars are going to be more common this time around. Food prices and other commodity prices are skyrocketing, and there's a bigger divide between the "haves" and "have-nots" than ever before. When people can't feed their families, and are being kicked out of their homes, they're eventually going to stand up and say "NO MORE!"


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## TNHermit (Jul 14, 2005)

We're in a world war now. And sooner or later N Korea aka china and China are gonna get antsy and add to the problem. Check out how fast China is expanding its military. And how many factories are owned secretly by the Military


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## Guest (Mar 27, 2008)

Whether there is a recession/depression or not I feel that another global war is a certainty. The question is will it come within the next twenty years or within the next fifty.

It may start in the Middle East but it is going to end one way or the other in Asia. It may well have its beginning in Asia too when China finally decides to make her play for Siberia and Russia doesn't go down or capitulate as easily as they thought she would.

.....Alan.


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## Cyngbaeld (May 20, 2004)

The big question is "who is going to start slinging nukes, at whom, and when?"


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## Explorer (Dec 2, 2003)

Cyngbaeld said:


> The big question is "who is going to start slinging nukes, at whom, and when?"


The one that is losing badly.


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## hintonlady (Apr 22, 2007)

TNHermit said:


> We're in a world war now. And sooner or later N Korea aka china and China are gonna get antsy and add to the problem. Check out how fast China is expanding its military. And how many factories are owned secretly by the Military



My response (given in good humor and an attempt to win "stupid response of the day" honor)

Why? So they can force us to buy more junk?

My opinion (based in ignorance of any relevant knowledge)

As it is our .99 cent store madness is paying to keep their lights on. An economic war will wage long before a bullet is ever shot.

I would rather have fertile land (only semi polluted vs, theirs) and the means to feed a populace over plastic trinket and dog food factories. Until China is not a major importer of foods for it's oversized population I will not lose too much sleep.

Yes, we import food but we also export our own too. If we had to stop shipping we may lack in lead based paint toys for our kiddos but we will have good ole corn fed American young'uns.

(not based on potential gas shortage)

:buds: :banana02:

That is all.....lol


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## Aintlifegrand (Jun 3, 2005)

cchapman84 said:


> I'm thinking that civil wars are going to be more common this time around. Food prices and other commodity prices are skyrocketing, and there's a bigger divide between the "haves" and "have-nots" than ever before. When people can't feed their families, and are being kicked out of their homes, they're eventually going to stand up and say "NO MORE!"


I see these war as splinter wars _created from the rising crisis of the larger global resource wars_... civil wars between those who are for war and those who are against it, the banksters versus the tax payer that has to bail them out. The legal versus illegal peopl in this country. and Now it seems even black and white...

As resources become scarce or too costly... minor irratations become major...so I conceivable could see two to three wars overseas ( Iran, Iraq, Russia, China etc)...and many small conflicts ( socioeconomic) at home...


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## TNHermit (Jul 14, 2005)

hintonlady said:


> My response (given in good humor and an attempt to win "stupid response of the day" honor)
> 
> Why? So they can force us to buy more junk?
> 
> ...



People in power never have any sense. their only desire is more control. If they own us then you lose your freedom. You may have a little pot of land like I suspect most chinese in the country do but you will till it in order to survive on the most basic level. Not to create a thing of beauty. That is left to those who rule. you will work to supply the lusts of the rulers. Consider ALL the taxes you pay, and ALL the rules you follow now. And this is a free country for the most part. But you can give it all over to the liberals who believe in more goveremnt rule and eventually one way or the other to those in Asia. WE have 360 million, the have a couple billion. Losing a few million will not bother them in the least


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## sgl42 (Jan 20, 2004)

hintonlady said:


> Why? So they can force us to buy more junk?
> 
> My opinion (based in ignorance of any relevant knowledge)
> 
> ...


you can see statistics on all different categories of chinese exports here:
http://www.intracen.org/tradstat/sitc3-3d/er156.htm

lots of agricultural goods, lots of tech goods, lots of clothing products.

eg: 752 - Automatic data-processing machines and units thereof; 

during 2001-2005, this category has gone from 13 billion to 76 billion. I presume it's higher today. If you order a notebook computer from HP, it will be routed to china, and shipped directly from the chinese factory to your house or business. 

764 - Telecommunications equipment, 
went from 15 billion to 62 billion

China makes parts for Boeing aircraft now too, and a fairly major component (can't remember now what, but i'm sure google will find it for you.)



> http://www.ers.usda.gov/Publications/AIB775/
> "China at a Glance: A Statistical Overview of China&#8217;s Food and Agriculture"
> (http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/aib775/aib775e.pdf)
> 
> ...


In fact, China's imports and exports are approximately balanced. They have a huge surplus with the US, and a deficit with lots of other asian countries (eg, Japan, Taiwan, Thailand, Korea, etc) 

I suspect many of these imports are to make the exports to the US. If the exports to the US stop, so will many of the imports, and the "pain" will likely be felt more in the other asian countries than in China itself.

The chattering class probably wants you to keep believing that China is all about worthless toys. Keeps your 401k money earning fees for wall street while the stock market goes no where, and keeps you optimistic and bidding up real estate prices and doing cash-out refinancing to buy those trinkets from China at a huge markup for Walmart and other retailers.

Altho the plastic trinkets and baubles might be what's most visible to you, the fact is that China has been building real mfg capacity -- telecom, computers, steel, textiles, aerospace -- not flipping condos like we are. 

Might want to check into a lunesta prescription. and double check where it's made: China's exports of "541 - Medicinal and pharmaceutical products, " has gone from $1.6 billion to 3.2 billion from 2001-2005.

--sgl


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## hintonlady (Apr 22, 2007)

Last lame joke before onto semi coherent ramblings; 

The question "when will recession turn into a depression"?

My reply "......wait a minute I'm already depressed, you mean it can get worse?" :Bawling:

As for people in power....well, it shore do fill my day with entertainment. [prophead] The foolish folly of it all is much too ridiculous for my comprehension.  

We got us a bunch of children weilding Godlike powers, running around the global schoolyard like bullies. I'm pretty much sick to death of it all. Didn't they Mama teach dem no manners?



TNHermit said:


> People in power never have any sense. their only desire is more control. If they own us then you lose your freedom. You may have a little pot of land like I suspect most chinese in the country do but you will till it in order to survive on the most basic level. Not to create a thing of beauty. That is left to those who rule. you will work to supply the lusts of the rulers.


I would rather be a pauper with pride than a leader who is a leach.

Survival is a thing of beauty if we appreciate it. Tilling a plot of land, rough hands and a simple existance is a thing of beauty as well. That's why I do it now voluntarily. I could live with so much less and never lose an ounce of enthusiasm.

It's the greed mongers who crave luxuries to find artificially induced states of happiness, people who need to control others because their world is so out of control, it is those people who are barely alive. Let them eat their cake, I want nothing of it. 

As for politicians, I refuse to debate that. I consider it all shades of gray. Red, blue, green, even purple.......it's all getting beyond redundant and pointless. I don't text message to vote for American Idol either.


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## Callieslamb (Feb 27, 2007)

yes, and I think it will come to our soil. We are a rich country - many, many natural resources and infrastructure galore. They will come for it when our economy tanks- since our military is depleted. And we will be in the thick of it.


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## Explorer (Dec 2, 2003)

Although the United States was on the winning side of World War I, World War II, and the Cold War, Americans ended up with fewer liberties than they had before the wars. âEvery year, on Veterans Day, orators declare that our leaders have gone to war to preserve our freedoms and have done so with glorious success, but the truth is just the opposite,â writes Higgs. âIn ways big and small, direct and indirect, crude and subtle, warâthe quintessential government activityâhas been the motherâs milk for the nourishment of a growing tyranny in this country, and it remains so today.â 

From the book:

Neither Liberty nor Safety
Fear, Ideology, and the Growth of Government 
By Robert Higgs


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## Pack Rat (Nov 9, 2006)

Excellent quote, Explorer. It looks like I'll have to go borrow Mr Higgs' book through the local library, just to see their eyebrows raise. 

I'm also of the opinion that the Kondratieff wave is beginning a winter spell, and I wouldn't be looking at 20 years (or more) for a showdown with China as the world's next superpower. I would set 25 at the outside limit, and more likely in the near term some form of initial skirmish over US financial policy: how would you like a few trillion inflated away to near nothing? Then look for the door to escalation blown off it's hinges by this little thing called "oil rights". The observation that troubles me most, is that in previous oscillations of the wave, the key to working out of it was in the resources still available globally. I just don't see that this time around, and if good sense doesn't prevail, resources lost in fighting for diminishing resources will be the least of the casualties. 

Pack Rat


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## Explorer (Dec 2, 2003)

Just because past wars have been shooting wars do not mean all future wars will involve normal munitions. The next war could very well be an economic one. China has enough saved American resources to put a real crimp on our country. Imagine what would happen if China stopped exporting to the US and all Wallmarts closed because of not enough products to sell.


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## Guest (Mar 28, 2008)

Explorer said:


> Imagine what would happen if China stopped exporting to the US and all Wallmarts closed because of not enough products to sell.


 Imagine what would happen to China if America shut off all of their imports and millions of factory workers suddenly found themselves unemployed.

.....Alan.


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## stranger (Feb 24, 2008)

we could put an end to most of the trouble in the world right now of we built 2 new oil refineries, opened up our own oil fields. Brought all our troops home to their own soil, kept our nose out of everyone elses business... It's to bad no one would liston to Ron Paul and we let the Media and GOP push him aside..

put our family farms back to work and start up out mass transit again.
other countries could use their oil to cook french fries. they could use their rice and wheat to build roads in place of black top.
some countries used to like us, some feared us, some respected us, now they do neither and we let some ass hole like Al Sauder in Iraq give orders to kill our troops and can't go after him. also Iranian President Ahmadinejador should be comming out of a spider hole like Saddam, we let Chavez in Venezuela stir up trouble with the neighboring countries and do nothing because our government knows that our military is stretched and a draft would probably start a revolution right here. JMO ..We even let Mexico dictate policy to us. sorry about the spelling but when i was in school, they didnt have most of those words.


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## stranger (Feb 24, 2008)

A.T. Hagan said:


> Imagine what would happen to China if America shut off all of their imports and millions of factory workers suddenly found themselves unemployed.
> 
> .....Alan.


 Imagine what would happen to America if China called in their notes, people wouldn't even get their rebates or stimilus package either if China cut off the money flow.


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## Pack Rat (Nov 9, 2006)

> The next war could very well be an economic one.


 Other than "religion", isn't that how a good many of shooting wars of the past have started? The American Revolutionary war was keyed by economics as much as by "freedom" - the Crown had an Empire to support and what better way to do so than on the backs of others without 'rights', such as the the colonists; WW1, WW2, and the current debacle 'over there' are, when the facts be known, economically driven - the "right people" profit. And as I see it, the US has been in a war with China for a few years already, and it's only a matter of time until the Chinese decouple their currency to cut their own inflationary spiral to keep the people from revolt, and in the process, get their bankers burned still further by the likely US hyper inflation - the only way to paper over the incomprehensible US national obligations (debts) allowed, nay, demanded by "them, the sheeple". 

It's all so interconnected, my mind reels.


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## NoClue (Jan 22, 2007)

stranger said:


> Imagine what would happen to America if China called in their notes, people wouldn't even get their rebates or stimilus package either if China cut off the money flow.


Imagine what would happen to China if they decoupled their currency and called in their notes


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## Pack Rat (Nov 9, 2006)

NoClue said:


> Imagine what would happen to China if they decoupled their currency and called in their notes


Should the congress settle up by selling the red states? or the blue ones?


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## Gary in ohio (May 11, 2002)

Explorer said:


> China has enough saved American resources to put a real crimp on our country. Imagine what would happen if China stopped exporting to the US and all Wallmarts closed because of not enough products to sell.


Little of what we import from china are must have items, Granted they may be cheaper items but are generally not required to live. Look what the US ships to china, food, grain, coal, natural gas. MUST have items. Many items that cant be found elsewhere.


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## Guest (Mar 28, 2008)

Well, China could try to call in their notes.

Of course we wouldn't be able to pay them so we'd have to default. This would blow the bottom out of the U.S. economy.

And then the cascade failure would begin as the international monetary system collapsed dragging international markets along with it. China would get nothing or next to nothing for all of the U.S. debt she holds and a vast part of her export markets would disappear. She'd have thousands of factories and millions of workers idled which in turn would ramp up the political tension and unrest she is already feeling, perhaps to the point of internal war.

China and the United States are in an economic co-dependent relationship. Neither can simply shut the other one off without suffering severely themselves.

.....Alan.


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## Guest (Mar 28, 2008)

sgl42 said:


> The last depression started in 1930. I think the German attack on Poland was in 1939 or so. The US didn't get involved until late 1941 after pearl harbor.


The Polish invasion was Septemeber 1939. I downloaded this most excellent documentary about it and watched it the other day: http://www.eztakes.com/store/movie/September-1939-The-Invasion-of-Poland-Movie-Download.jsp


hintonlady said:


> Yes, we import food but we also export our own too.


Last year was the first year we imported more food than we exported. The amount we are importing has slowly risen and is still rising.

And now the food manufacturers and meat producers are slowly all moving their facilities south of the border.


stranger said:


> Imagine what would happen to America if China called in their notes, people wouldn't even get their rebates or stimilus package either if China cut off the money flow.


Good point. We're billions in debt to China and various other Asian countries.


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## Callieslamb (Feb 27, 2007)

doesn't care if they make their workers/people suffer. 

They have to have known the US notes were going to be worthless eventually. So why did they buy them beyond their being of any worth? IMO - to tank us. THere are other people in the world that now use the resources of China - they are not as dependent upon us buying from them as they used to be. In fact, their own country is becoming a country of super consumers now. I dont' think they need us as any more as much as we need them. That isn't to say that they won't suffer if we collapse. Russia suffered to when their country collapsed, but...Russians weren't used to having a dependable food supply before the collapse. They knew how to make do. We don't. China does. They don't worry about a couple million starving to death.


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## Explorer (Dec 2, 2003)

> Of course we wouldn't be able to pay them so we'd have to default. This would blow the bottom out of the U.S. economy.


I don't know why. The vast majority of US money is now just digital money. So we send them a a large chunk of non interest paying money


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## hintonlady (Apr 22, 2007)

stranger said:


> we could put an end to most of the trouble in the world right now of we built 2 new oil refineries, opened up our own oil fields. Brought all our troops home to their own soil, kept our nose out of everyone elses business...
> put our family farms back to work and start up out mass transit again.
> other countries could use their oil to cook french fries. they could use their rice and wheat to build roads in place of black top.
> some countries used to like us, some feared us, some respected us, now they do neither .



That makes WAAAAY too much sense for .gov


The way I see it when TSHTF the nations who will come out looking okay are the nations who looked okay before this global domination game started.

Ask yourselves, when we are all faced with national survival who was able to get by on their own or could manage on their own without outside support.....

Yes we get oil but we also have some of our own. yes we import food but we have plenty of our own. Workers and factories were never a problem for us......

Some nations have grown by virtue of globalization and world market, the same nations who rode the coat tails to come up will be the first to fall by the wayside in hard times.

Unless we want to turn our biosphere into a giant microwave oven, then we all lose.


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## WayneR (Mar 26, 2007)

Perhaps better to consume the rest of the world's easily obtainable oil supply first? The term 'strategic reserves' will have new meaning.


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## Ann-NWIowa (Sep 28, 2002)

China is a huge threat. We have exported all our manufacturing technology to them. We don't make squat in the U.S. anymore which is why our balance of trade with China is so lopsided. If we stop buying from China, where do we get our goods. The patterns, machines, dyes, tools, etc. are in China. Former factories in the U.S. are empty, torn down, or converted to expensive lofts. You can't put the genie back in the bottle. Our manufacturing is basically gone. How many steel foundries are left in the U.S.? Factories producing shoes, clothing or even fabric, needles and thread? Even some bullets used by our soldiers come from China. So we've given them every single last thing they need to destroy us. Wasn't it Clinton who provided them missle technology?


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## hintonlady (Apr 22, 2007)

Ann-NWIowa said:


> China is a huge threat. We have exported all our manufacturing technology to them. We don't make squat in the U.S. anymore which is why our balance of trade with China is so lopsided. If we stop buying from China, where do we get our goods. The patterns, machines, dyes, tools, etc. are in China. Former factories in the U.S. are empty, torn down, or converted to expensive lofts. You can't put the genie back in the bottle. Our manufacturing is basically gone. How many steel foundries are left in the U.S.? Factories producing shoes, clothing or even fabric, needles and thread? Even some bullets used by our soldiers come from China. So we've given them every single last thing they need to destroy us. Wasn't it Clinton who provided them missle technology?



Creepy!!!


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## stranger (Feb 24, 2008)

Maybe it's time all us pheasants from all countries got together and formed a union,tossed out the people(politions) that are taking us down the rough road, opened up the markets ourselves with free trade and lived happly ever after.


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## Ohio Rusty (Jan 18, 2008)

Virtually all of our medicines and vitamins come from China also (except Tylenol). All they have to do is poison all the med supplies and there would be no american people left alive. Every person in this country takes medicine whether prescription or OTC of some sort. Even kids eat the gummy and flintstone vitamins ..... and they are probably made in some back alley garage in Ho Chi Min city somewhere ....
Ohio Rusty ><>


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## booklover (Jan 22, 2007)

This is why preparedness gets a bad name. There are so many rumors and outright lies that it doesn't even make sense for a sane person to read this stuff!


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## Guest (Mar 28, 2008)

booklover said:


> This is why preparedness gets a bad name. There are so many rumors and outright lies that it doesn't even make sense for a sane person to read this stuff!


Which are lies, which are truths, and which have a grain of truth?


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## Explorer (Dec 2, 2003)

booklover said:


> This is why preparedness gets a bad name. There are so many rumors and outright lies that it doesn't even make sense for a sane person to read this stuff!


Agreed. It can even stretch the senses of an insane person.


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## hintonlady (Apr 22, 2007)

Booklover and explorer

Relax guys.....most of us do not take these things as gospel. If it's in the news we debate and question it. If it's speculation we just supose a lot in here. I seriously doubt you would find any member who ran with this stuff to the point they were foaming at the mouth and locked up.

This is just a spot for like minded folks to share ideas and thoughts. It's only as serious as you want to make it. 

If you feel it is insane you don't have to read it. Preparedness is controversial in it's own right. If people want to judge that's really their problem, not our job to impress anybody, now is it?


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## uyk7 (Dec 1, 2002)

> and they are probably made in some back alley garage in Ho Chi Min city somewhere ....


Actually, Ho Chi Minn city is in Vietnam.


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## hintonlady (Apr 22, 2007)

uyk7 said:


> Actually, Ho Chi Minn city is in Vietnam.


I thought so too, didn't want to say so just in case.......

Old Uncle Ho got himself a city name changed for him after the war..........


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## Explorer (Dec 2, 2003)

> Relax guys.....most of us do not take these things as gospel. If it's in the news we debate and question it. If it's speculation we just supose a lot in here. I seriously doubt you would find any member who ran with this stuff to the point they were foaming at the mouth and locked up.


This isn't General Chat, at least it didn't used to be. Now?


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## AngieM2 (May 10, 2002)

hintonlady said:


> Booklover and explorer
> 
> Relax guys.....most of us do not take these things as gospel. If it's in the news we debate and question it. If it's speculation we just supose a lot in here. I seriously doubt you would find any member who ran with this stuff to the point they were foaming at the mouth and locked up.
> 
> ...



Actually you'd be surprised as to the number of people that do take internations news as serious and request links to check it out. 

As to the China and the meds.... I'd question it until I investigated it or a link was provided, or you know the information reputation of the poster than made the statement.

Preparedness is controversial, and has been since at least 1999 that I know of, but we don't have to impress others either. 

So, apparenlty there are more very serious 'nut-cases' in the forum reading than you'd expect. And most of the very serious ones, don't post a lot on speculations but do offer information to serious questions.

I guess we have both types, the VERY prepping, and the ones that come to debate it in a milder manner.

But - it is not General Chat.

Angie


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## Guest (Mar 29, 2008)

AngieM2 said:


> As to the China and the meds.... I'd question it until I investigated it or a link was provided, or you know the information reputation of the poster than made the statement.


Lots of pharmaceutical ingredients do come from China, and if I wasn't so beyond tired (had a LONG day), I'd search more extensively, but in the meantime, this link is of interest:

http://www.exportbureau.com/chemical/pharmaceutical.html


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## AngieM2 (May 10, 2002)

Thanks Ladycat - now others that question things can investigate more.

Angie


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## Jim-mi (May 15, 2002)

A statement by ohio rusty that bothers me. . . .
"everybody takes meds"..............

I kinda resent that generalization . . .
please speak for your self>>

I'm proud that at my tender age I take NO meds . . . .
Yes that raises eyebrows . . ."But every body does"
Not so.......



I have used the tag line "Time for my meds" . .just as a *funny* line.


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## Oldcountryboy (Feb 23, 2008)

Ann-NWIowa said:


> China is a huge threat. Wasn't it Clinton who provided them missle technology?


Yep, and don't you wonder why so many Americans want to vote his wife in the office. What will she sell to them for more campain money? Our slavery maybe!


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