# Florence may be coming to visit



## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

It's looking more and more like Florence will hit the East coast as a major hurricane.

Most of the current models are pointing towards NC/SC around the middle of next week.

It may still turn out to sea, but it's a good time for anyone anywhere along the coast to think about being prepared for a possible Cat 3 or 4.

http://www.bearpawsweather.com/tropical/


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## MoonRiver (Sep 2, 2007)

Mother Nature is a little off this year. i am planning my Hatteras trip later in the month.

It seems like every time I plan to go camping at Hatteras, a big storm closes down the campgrounds. Probably means there will be another big storm in a couple of weeks.


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

MoonRiver said:


> Probably means there will be another big storm in a couple of weeks.


There are already two more potential systems Southeast of Florence.


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## ed/La (Feb 26, 2009)

Florance is slow moving with unpridtable steering currents that make this storm especially bad. It can stall over area for days. This will probably be a bad one for millions of people. Hope it turns out to sea.


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## Oregon1986 (Apr 25, 2017)

I hope everyone stays safe and is prepared


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2018/09/0...-emergency-declaration-in-north-carolina.html
*Tropical Storm Florence approach prompts state-of-emergency declaration in North Carolina*


"The approaching storm prompted North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper to declare a *state of emergency*, a step that makes resources available for addressing the storm's effects.

Cooper signed a transportation waiver that would allow farmers to harvest and transport their crops more quickly.

“The executive order will help gather and move crops in and through the state more easily and quickly in response to problems that could be caused by Tropical Storm Florence in North Carolina and along the East Coast,” the governor's statement said.

*Meanwhile, a new tropical storm, “Helene,” has formed* in the eastern Atlantic off the western coast of Africa. The National Hurricane Center in Miami said Friday night that Helene was located about 405 miles east of the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands. The storm’s maximum sustained winds were 40 mph and it was moving west at 12 mph. "


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## nchobbyfarm (Apr 10, 2011)

Oh great. Another F named September storm. Fran and Floyd were enough. Hopefully Florence turns out to sea and misses everyone.


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## newfieannie (Dec 24, 2006)

I'm preparing also. I think they're saying around Tuesday or so it might hit us. we probably wont know much until Monday. that's when I plan to move all my pots and whatnot to the shed. might not amount to anything by the time it reaches here but it's good to be prepared before hand. I remember juan and I wasn't fully prepared. from then on I was ~Georgia


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## Irish Pixie (May 14, 2002)

newfieannie said:


> I'm preparing also. I think they're saying around Tuesday or so it might hit us. we probably wont know much until Monday. that's when I plan to move all my pots and whatnot to the shed. might not amount to anything by the time it reaches here but it's good to be prepared before hand. I remember juan and I wasn't fully prepared. from then on I was ~Georgia


We're supposed to get the remnants of Tropic Storm Gordon Sunday night into Monday, a couple inches of rain.


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

nchobbyfarm said:


> Fran and Floyd were enough.


Both of those dropped trees on my house.
I'm hoping Florence and Helene (and what will likely be Isaac) go somewhere else.



newfieannie said:


> I'm preparing also. I think they're saying *around Tuesday* or so it might hit us.


That won't be Florence unless something drastically changes.
It's not supposed to hit the Southeast US coast before Wed-Thurs if it stays on the current path.

I'm hoping the other system (94L) between Florence and the US will pull it out to sea.
They said this morning the models haven't taken it into account.
If it combines with Florence it could turn into a much larger hurricane.
I'm hoping they will stay separate and 94L will lead Florence away.

https://www.wunderground.com/

https://weather.com/safety/hurrican...c-formation?cm_ven=wu_videos?cm_ven=hp-slot-2


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## IndyDave (Jul 17, 2017)

This is bad enough that I feel guilty about saying anything flippant, but when I first read the thread title my first thought was that you had hired the housekeeper from the Brady Bunch.


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

IndyDave said:


> my first thought was that you had hired *the housekeeper from the Brady Bunch*.


Her name on the show was "Alice" and her real name was "Ann"
You're thinking of Mrs Brady, Florence Henderson.

I've been in all of the hurricanes I want to experience, and it seems the "F's" were some of the worst.

The first one I was "in" (but don't remember) was Hazel in 1954. 

I still remember seeing large areas of trees blown down along the rivers years later even though I was only two when it came through.


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## TripleD (Feb 12, 2011)

IndyDave said:


> This is bad enough that I feel guilty about saying anything flippant, but when I first read the thread title my first thought was that you had hired the housekeeper from the Brady Bunch.


Florence was the Jefferson's maid...


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## newfieannie (Dec 24, 2006)

I thought that was wrong also to have it here by Tuesday but the station I heard called it Florence. likely they have it changed by now.


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## newfieannie (Dec 24, 2006)

now they are saying it's too early to predict if or when it will hit us. sure I could have told them that.


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

newfieannie said:


> I thought that was wrong also to have it here by Tuesday but the station I heard called it Florence. likely they have it changed by now.


Earlier in the week the models were predicting a turn to the North happening *much* sooner, so they may have been talking about that.

The models are updated and revised every 6 hours, and it's a constantly changing situation.

This site shows many of the models they use:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

This site is very interesting too:
https://www.ventusky.com/


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## IndyDave (Jul 17, 2017)

TripleD said:


> Florence was the Jefferson's maid...


Thanks. Some times my recollection of such things can be off a bit.


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## wdcutrsdaughter (Dec 9, 2012)

I love the ventusky website, thanks for that BFF


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## crehberg (Mar 16, 2008)

Y'all quit talking about hurricanes..I've got enough to worry about as it is. Ain't nobody got time for that!


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## shawnlee (Apr 13, 2010)

Now is the time to deny it can hit you...….get low on supplies and believe lessons were learned from Katrina and this time the government will be there to save you or some organization will chopper you off the roof if it gets too bad.....

Don't forget to run out at the last second and strip the grocery store clean so nothing gets damaged/ruined from the storm


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## geo in mi (Nov 14, 2008)

In the light of being prepared, should this be considered a SHTF event? 

geo


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

wdcutrsdaughter said:


> I love the ventusky website, thanks for that BFF


LOL
It's hypnotic and educational all at once.


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

geo in mi said:


> In the light of being prepared, should this be considered* a SHTF event*?


Without a doubt.

Even a Cat 1 can be devastating since much of the damage comes from flooding as well as from the winds.

The latest models for Florence are saying winds will likely be at least 110-129 MPH as a CAT 3, and that it's very possible it could become a CAT 4 with winds of 130-156 MPH before landfall.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir–Simpson_scale#Categories

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...ane-nears-united-states-next-week/1221294002/



> As of 5 p.m. ET Friday, Florence had winds of 65 mph and was moving to the west at 8 mph. The storm's center was 905 miles east-southeast of Bermuda.
> 
> After it weakens and regains strength, it's forecast to become a Category 4 hurricane with 130-mph winds as it nears the United States.
> It is too soon to determine what, if any, other effects Florence could have on the East Coast, the hurricane center added.
> ...


If it continues on the current forecast track, I expect conditions here to start going downhill
Wednesday or Thursday, and we will be getting the worst wind damage beginning very early Friday AM. How long that phase lasts will depend on how fast it's moving at that time, and how fast it weakens after landfall.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/084537.shtml?cone#contents

Irene, in 2011 did major damage and it was only a Cat 1 when it got here.
We lost power for 5 days then.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Irene

I'm still hoping it will fool everyone and make a hard right turn before it gets here.
I've already seen *all* the hurricanes I ever want to see.


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## geo in mi (Nov 14, 2008)

I'm not from a hurricane area--just tornado---so, how does a person prepare, knowing it's coming. I've seen these mass traffic jams beforehand, of people leaving town at just the very last minute; then people just wandering around the wreckage afterwards as if they didn't or couldn't prepare. Home generator, tie downs, extra bags of clothing, food, water, etc, etc. Does a homeowner keep plywood in storage to board up the windows? How about livestock? Cash?

geo


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## wdcutrsdaughter (Dec 9, 2012)

Bearfootfarm said:


> LOL
> It's hypnotic and educational all at once.


I like to zoom out and see the whole picture, if you will. Hoping Florence doesn't bother you too much BFF


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## crehberg (Mar 16, 2008)

geo in mi said:


> I'm not from a hurricane area--just tornado---so, how does a person prepare, knowing it's coming. I've seen these mass traffic jams beforehand, of people leaving town at just the very last minute; then people just wandering around the wreckage afterwards as if they didn't or couldn't prepare. Home generator, tie downs, extra bags of clothing, food, water, etc, etc. Does a homeowner keep plywood in storage to board up the windows? How about livestock? Cash?
> 
> geo


You do the best you can. A lot of us have no choice but to wait it out because of work (businesses always like to stay open to the last minute...). You prep as best you can...and pray for the best. I hope Florence turns out to sea and doesn't bother anyone...but it ain't looking good.


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## Irish Pixie (May 14, 2002)

crehberg said:


> You do the best you can. A lot of us have no choice but to wait it out because of work (businesses always like to stay open to the last minute...). You prep as best you can...and pray for the best. I hope Florence turns out to sea and doesn't bother anyone...but it ain't looking good.


I hope all of you in the path stay safe.


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

geo in mi said:


> how does a person prepare


All the things you listed are good preparations.

Coastal beach areas are more likely to be evacuated and boarded up since there is little to block the wind and not much to stop storm surges. Many of the people there aren't residents so they will just go home anyway.

Once you get further inland most won't go to the trouble of covering windows since the trees help block the wind flow there.

Falling trees are one of the biggest hazards after flooding and they cause a lot of the structural damage and many of the power problems when they take down the lines.

Depending on how far out you live, it could take weeks to have power restored.

In 1999, Hurricane Floyd dropped over 24" of rain here, flooded the Eastern third of the state for weeks, and washed out bridges and roads that took many months to repair.

Some businesses stayed under water so long that they never reopened.

It was cheaper for them to move to a new location than to try and repair the existing infrastructure.

Livestock can be sheltered in barns, but Floyd killed thousands of hogs and poultry when their houses were flooded. 

A friend of mine lost a few hundred cattle that got trapped in a low area and drowned because the water kept rising for about a week after the storm had passed. 

For about 5 days the only way in or out of this county was by boat or helicopter. 
Shortly after that some 30 minute commutes became 3 hour drives due to all the detours needed to avoid washed out bridges and roads.

The best preparation is have enough food and water to last several weeks, and have a means to generate power so you can maintain refrigeration and lights.

Cash is always good because even if stores are open after the storm, they may not have full power and won't be processing credit cards at all. 

You can expect *long* lines for gas (if you can buy any at all) and during Floyd, after about the 4th day there wasn't much left in groceries stores that you'd want to eat, although that was the worst one I've seen here.

An EF2 tornado has similar wind speeds to a CAT 3 hurricane and a really huge one might be a quarter mile across, but the hurricane can be a hundred miles wide. 

Tornadoes stay on the ground an average of about 20 minutes, and can pass through an area in just seconds, whereas a hurricane can take days.

It's good to have food and water enough to last for weeks if needed, a way to generate power (and enough fuel to run it)...*and then hope you get really lucky.*


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

crehberg said:


> I hope Florence turns out to sea and doesn't bother anyone...but it ain't looking good.


I read somewhere that no hurricane has ever hit the US from within 100 miles of where Florence is now, but it's looking like it will be an anomaly. 

Usually the ones that pass through that area stay out to sea.


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## Evons hubby (Oct 3, 2005)

The wind will blow, there will be rain. Prepare for the worst, pray for the best.


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## CajunSunshine (Apr 24, 2007)

Here's hoping all those in Florence's path escape with no harm or damage done.

I hate this time of year. Although I moved out of harm's way years ago, I still have family and friends in 'cane country on the Gulf Coast and East Coast. Sometimes I have to remind myself to breathe when I visit weather websites.


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## Cornhusker (Mar 20, 2003)

You guys stay safe.
I've never been in a hurricane, and I'm glad I live where they don't exist.
Hope it turns out to sea.


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## TripleD (Feb 12, 2011)

I got about everything buckled down here over the weekend. I need to move the cows to the front pasture. There aren't any trees on the fence line perimeter .


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

If Florence remains on it's current path and reaches CAT 4 at landfall, *it will be the* *strongest* *hurricane to ever hit the US, North of South Carolina*.

They are currently forecasting 15-30" of rain for my part of the state, and saying it may stall, dumping rain for days.

This could be a repeat of Hurricane Floyd, which was the worst natural disaster to hit NC in recorded history.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hurric...from-carolinas-north-live-updates-2018-09-10/

"People up and down the densely populated coast were told to be ready for the worst -- and not just for a possible direct blow against the coast. 

They warned that *Florence could slow or stall on or near shore*, with some forecasting models showing it could unload a foot or two of rain in places, causing devastating inland flooding.

"What that means is not only do we have a serious, 130 mph potential wind threat at landfall along with catastrophic storm surge, but also *a very large inland flood threat that could include two feet of rain in certain spots including inland North Carolina's most populous cities*," CBS News meteorologist David Parkinson said late Sunday. 

"The most important takeaway out of the storm is that *this will not be a quick hitting major storm but a long duration one.* We will likely be talking about this actively raining at this time next week. Pace yourselves. *It's gonna be a long one*." "


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

This is a "tower cam" about 3 miles from my house.
It's above all the fog we have here this morning, and looks pretty surreal.








Normally it shows the little town closest to me.
It will be interesting to see what it shows over the next week or so, assuming it survives.

http://www.witn.com/content/ipcams/377859411.html

Here are some more at various locations around the Eastern part of the state:

http://www.witn.com/cams


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

wdcutrsdaughter said:


> I love the ventusky website, thanks for that BFF


Here's another good one for watching wind patterns and getting storm predictions, along with lots of other data:
https://www.windy.com/?29.420,-81.958,5


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## Shine (Feb 19, 2011)

Nothing that I can offer that has not been already mentioned, I will offer prayers for the best for all and will keep my heart and mind on those that have to go through this event.

I too hope that she takes a hard right to the open waters.

Be well, do your best to keep a smile on your heart and face. While it is a tough one, this too will pass.


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## Evons hubby (Oct 3, 2005)

Be safe, even if that requires being gone! Mom nature can be a rough old broad when she gets her dander up.


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## ed/La (Feb 26, 2009)

It is recommended to have your name and phone number for next of kin on wrist band to make it easier when they recover your body. During Katrina the water was up to power lines in Pearlington Mississippi.


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## ed/La (Feb 26, 2009)




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## ed/La (Feb 26, 2009)

If you are in path anywhere near the eye or the right side of storm this is why you must leave now before traffic makes it impossible.


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

This is the same tower cam as the fog picture
The calm before the storm, so to speak:
http://www.witn.com/content/ipcams/377859411.html








This one is the Tar/Pamlico River (the name changes from Tar to Pamlico at the bridge), about 25 miles Northeast of my location.
http://www.witn.com/content/ipcams/377854561.html


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## ed/La (Feb 26, 2009)

Bearfootfarm how far are you from coast and what is your elevation?


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## 4tu (Jul 24, 2018)

Hurricanes spawn tornadoes, flash floods and wind damage. Then there are downed power lines. Using alternative fuels and generators or Inverters you have to worry about fire and possible injuries. Fire is the worst possible event during or after a storm emergency vehicles are in short supply and busy in life and death matters or cannot reach you. Having first aid and medications just in case that need to go with you where ever you go, you do not know if you get somewhere they will have any supplies at all. shelters here had no blankets water or first aid oir food / snacks just a roof people were on the floor and many brought nothing the floods chased them out so fast they did not have time and were not prepared to run for it most lost vehicles homes and animals.

Flooding all the nasty critters float on water or have to move so snakes and unfriendly wildlife are something to watch for, here we have fire ants floating in a mass. mean dogs are still mean have some protection.

Shelter in place unless there is no other way or get to a shelter before if you know there is a possibility of flooding.

have a few routes out considering to avoid flood prone areas, if it ever flooded it's going to be flooded during a storm that drops a lot of rain.

Top off all your vehicles riding mowers generators and even boat fuel tanks and any fuel cans gas is a commodity and if a storm does a lot of damage it can take weeks before power to come back to pump it out of the ground. charge all your devices and tools have lots of extra batteries

have a case of bottled water in each vehicle / boat food animal food also, towels and blankets and extra clothes as you may not know what vehicle will be best or usable when you need to get gone. don't block in or have vehicles together if possible as one tree and all your vehicles and damaged or trapped.

have your purse wallet on you medications keys and any small valuables in a case, durable bag or backpack ready to escape if need be.

clothing without pockets is just stupid and have a jacket with more pockets if you have to start shucking things to move and consolidate your meager belongings you need to think ahead. rafting down the street on a blowup mattress with all your crap in a laundry basket means you were not prepared.

Have cash in small denominations ones fives and tens and twenties as much as you can because no power means no ATM's

Extension cords 3 way plugs so if you have a generator you can use it or if a neighbor has a generator and will let you tap into it you have a way to get power.

One thing I do is turn off all electrical devices then flip the main breaker and go on flashlights and lanterns. unplug network cables from computers and routers unplug phones and do not use cell phones outside, and stay away from windows with lightning windows should be sheathed with plywood.

There are books written on this subject this is just a readers digest condensed version off the top of my head.


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

ed/La said:


> Bearfootfarm how far are you from coast and what is your elevation?


I'm about 50 miles from the ocean at it's nearest point (Atlantic Beach), and 100 miles from Cape Hatteras. 

My elevation is about 25 feet, and to my knowledge my home site has never flooded. 
I know it didn't flood in Hurricane Floyd.

The problem in this part of the state is you can hardly ever go more than half a mile without crossing some sort of water, whether it's a canal, a creek or a river. 

I fully expect to see lots of roads and bridges washed out if we get the expected amounts of rainfall, so I will likely be isolated for a week or so at least, based on what I saw during Floyd. 

That also will mean losing power and phone service since even cell towers can't operate without power and their backup systems won't run for days without maintenance that isn't possible if you can't get to them.

I also expect about half of the nearest town to be submerged, since there's a creek running through it. 
The South half of town (PD, Town Hall, Fire Dept) will all be under water. 

A new grocery store just opened last year to replace the old one that flooded out twice in the same location. I expect they will lose everything too. The North side should be fine since it's on what passes for a "hill" around here. Sadly though, most of the businesses are on the South side. 

I will try to post pictures from the tower cam which I'm sure will show the flooding. I just don't know when I will have internet access after the storm arrives.

We're running through the checklist, charging batteries and flashlights, filling all the water containers, making blocks of ice in the spare chest freezer, topping off gas tanks and filling containers, filling some coolers with bags of ice that we will put in the spare freezer as long as it has power. Then it can go back in the coolers if needed, since we will only be running the freezer and refrigerator in the house

All the outside things are in the barn and it's closed up. 

The generator has had it's test run and started with no problems. 

Still trying to think of more things to do aside from watching and waiting.
By tomorrow night it may be too late to do much more.


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## no really (Aug 7, 2013)

Be safe and wishing for the best outcome for all.


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## ed/La (Feb 26, 2009)

If you have shingle roof expect them to get blown off. If you have harbor freight I would get enough tarps to cover roof after wind subsides. Perhaps a few bundles of shingles or felt to make spot patches.


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## MoonRiver (Sep 2, 2007)

I'm about 200 miles inland, but in potential path so expecting high winds and lots of rain and flooding. I'm on a hill, so I'm not worried about house flooding, but lots of trees close to the house. I may do a little pruning tomorrow if it is still on track.

I went past the grocery store and to Walmart around 10 am and both parking lots were packed. Some people seem to be taking this seriously.

I'm trying to finish my solar install so I will have enough power to run refrigerator if power goes out.


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## po boy (Jul 12, 2010)

ed/La said:


> Bearfootfarm how far are you from coast and what is your elevation?


Highest Poster  so he is safe


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## Fennick (Apr 16, 2013)

Wishing safe passage for all of you in the path of this one.


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## ed/La (Feb 26, 2009)

Where are the active message boards for people in the path. I looked a little and did not find anything. This is the big one, coming soon. Perhaps we can help a few with pleas to leave.


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## ed/La (Feb 26, 2009)

Barefoot can you video log this storm and share with us later? Live stream a little if you like that sort of thing. Your property sounds like it should weather the storm better than most. We are pulling for you. Good luck.


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## wdcutrsdaughter (Dec 9, 2012)

ed/La those videos are terrifying. you have good advice
bearfootfarm and everyone else in the path peace and safety be with you
my aunt is in southport, I hope she evacuates.


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

ed/La said:


> Where are the active message boards for people in the path.


I would guess Facebook and Twitter are going strong, but I don't use either of those.
Maybe some sites like City Data would have some threads going, but I bet a lot of people are on the roads.

I've been seeing lots of vehicles towing boats and heading West, and I'm not really on a main highway.

Tomorrow many of the roads to the Outer banks will become one way, with no one allowed to enter other than emergency vehicles.



wdcutrsdaughter said:


> my aunt is in southport, I hope she evacuates.


I hope she does also.
That's too close to "ground zero" for this one.
It's going to make history.


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## TripleD (Feb 12, 2011)

I have some friends who swear they are going to ride it out in Wrightsville Beach ! I told them they will probably die.


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

ed/La said:


> Barefoot can you video log this storm and share with us later? Live stream a little if you like that sort of thing.


LOL
I have no way to do that.

Living out here, the only internet sources are dial-up and satellite, and neither give good service.

Some cell phone services don't even work well here, and WiFi is nonexistent unless someone has put up a new tower that I'm not aware of. 

This morning's forecasts have all shifted the track more to the South, so I'm feeling better about the winds than I was yesterday. 

My house is surrounded by 100+ year old trees.
If they don't fall on the house I should be fine.


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

TripleD said:


> I have some friends who swear they are going to ride it out in Wrightsville Beach ! I told them they will probably die.


The latest updates put them in the eye wall for many hours.
I hope they have a change of heart and get out while they still can.

We have friends who are going to stay not far from Morehead, but they aren't near the beach and have lived there for many years so they should know what to expect.

The sooner it turns South the happier I will be as far as for myself.

We have family in Charleston SC who aren't leaving since up until now it didn't look like they needed to worry. We also have family in GA and one model shows it making landfall there.

There's no good place to be in the Southeast for the next week or so, and especially NC/SC based on the latest predictions.
https://www.windy.com/

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/092830.shtml?cone#contents


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## ed/La (Feb 26, 2009)

TripleD said:


> I have some friends who swear they are going to ride it out in Wrightsville Beach ! I told them they will probably die.


Tell them not to get trapped in attic. Need a way to cut hole through roof to escape. I guess they do not want their cars. Sure to get flooded. Send them this video.Now do that at night.


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## weaselfire (Feb 7, 2018)

Run from the water, hide from the wind. Live to rebuild.

Jeff


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## whiterock (Mar 26, 2003)

You folks in target area, keep us informed, before and after. We will be worried about you.


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## TripleD (Feb 12, 2011)

TripleD said:


> I got about everything buckled down here over the weekend. I need to move the cows to the front pasture. There aren't any trees on the fence line perimeter .


I'm going to move the cows today. I got 6000 volts on it. It only takes about 30 mins and I'll be finished. Unless we get a tornado we should be fine. Everyone in the zone stay safe...


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## keenataz (Feb 17, 2009)

Good luck, stay safe


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## wdcutrsdaughter (Dec 9, 2012)

Bearfootfarm said:


> I hope she does also.
> That's too close to "ground zero" for this one.
> It's going to make history.


I know! I spoke with my cousin (who lives up here) she said my aunt was staying put! I am obviously concerned because she is so close to the coast! she's in the boiling springs lake area. I don't know what she is thinking. She is in her 70s. Ugh. Nothing we can do.


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

The Noon forecast makes me feel *much* better.

I am no longer in "the cone of uncertainty" (by just a hair), they have reduced the predicted wind speeds from "80-100" to "50-60", and decreased the rainfall totals from "25 to possibly 40 inches" to "10-15".

It appears more models are agreeing the turn to the Southwest will happen, and will hopefully be moving it further from me beginning as early as 3 AM Friday morning.

It still will be dangerous here for a day or two from winds, and possibly weeks from flooding due to the rains, but it shouldn't be as devastating as it appeared just 12 hours ago.

Maybe the roller coaster will slow down now...........until the next update at least.

https://www.windy.com/?2018-09-14-06,34.886,-77.849,7,i:pressure,m:eD4ad0h









https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/152637.shtml?cone#contents


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## ed/La (Feb 26, 2009)

wdcutrsdaughter said:


> I know! I spoke with my cousin (who lives up here) she said my aunt was staying put! I am obviously concerned because she is so close to the coast! she's in the boiling springs lake area. I don't know what she is thinking. She is in her 70s. Ugh. Nothing we can do.


Boiling springs is about 190 miles off the coast so it will mostly be a rain event for her. If not in low lying area she is probably safer staying where she is at. A 70 something year old road trip is not that safe especially with lodging in short supply.


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## newfieannie (Dec 24, 2006)

our news just said it's downgraded to a 3. I do hope it's downgraded further before it reaches any of you. don't know how much of it we will get yet. around tues or wed they are forcasting now. stay safe everyone. ~Georgia


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

newfieannie said:


> don't know how much of it we will get yet.


If it takes the current track Florence will not reach you at all, but there are are some other systems still in the Atlantic and a couple of them are closer to you.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

ed/La said:


> Boiling springs is about 190 miles off the coast


You're both talking about somewhere totally different.

She said "Boiling Springs *Lake*", which is between Wilmington and Southport, right on the coast. 

You're talking about the City of Boiling Springs, which is closer to the mountains and West of Charlotte.


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

wdcutrsdaughter said:


> my aunt is in southport, I hope she evacuates


Here are some cameras but I don't know how they will hold up when things get bad:
Wrightsville Beach:
http://wrightsville.com/bchcam.htm

Wilmington:
https://www.wral.com/weather/image/13259304/


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

Various other webcams for people who have real internet:
http://carolinawebcams.com/nc-webcams.htm


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

This just passed over my place, and is the first rain that is officially part of Florence, even though the eye is still about 300 miles offshore:


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

I hope that's a good omen.
That's about 25 miles Southeast of me.


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

For future comparisons, 50 miles Southeast of my location:


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## Shine (Feb 19, 2011)

Bearfootfarm said:


> Here are some cameras but I don't know how they will hold up when things get bad:
> Wrightsville Beach:
> http://wrightsville.com/bchcam.htm
> 
> ...


I prefer the Crab Claw Restaurant cam...


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

Shine said:


> I prefer the Crab Claw Restaurant cam...


It will probably be more interesting tomorrow.
It's still relatively calm there now.

I was mainly trying to find good ones with landmarks to indicate the level of flooding and wind, and that camera is just the ocean.

The beach cameras farther South will have the biggest surf if the spray doesn't blur the lenses and they maintain power. 

It's very likely I won't be able to access them during the worst parts here when we lose power. I'll just have to wait and play it by ear.


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

The news keeps getting better. Florence has been downgraded to a CAT 2 with 110 MPH winds. It may restrengthen some tomorrow, but probably will not be a "major" hurricane when it makes landfall.

Here's the 11 PM forecast track, and it's one nobody would have thought would happen:


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

Shine said:


> BFF, the download rate *might take a little while *on your access method but this is a very valuable tool.


Thanks, I'll try it and see what happens. Most times "interactive" stuff won't load at all with my AOL (Almost On Line)  I can see the still images though.

I've seen what you're talking about on some other sites, in still images. It's good news for everyone in the path, even though it remains a bad storm.

It's close enough now to show on the radar:
http://gray.ftp.clickability.com/witnwebftp/images/radar_640.gif

The changes are just starting to show on the cams now:
http://www.witn.com/cams


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## Shine (Feb 19, 2011)

There has been a breakout in the Eye Wall taking a little bite out of the Major Storm Category, the wind field continues to grow larger telling me that this will be a tremendous rain event on the north side of the storm. The coast will take a hit with the wind factor, inland will receive copious amounts of rain. There will probably be some isolated tornados but they will most likely be fast movers and in the low EF ranges.

Here's a site I value greatly - google "interactive satellite" and go to the dash board if this does not work, I like Band 14 at night and visible for understanding the storm during the day...

The Zoom in view does not post. Here is the Dashboard:
https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/
Choose Band 14. The following menu will appear below it:









To animate the visual that you see, choose the number of images that you want in the loop, I like 30. The click on the "Animate Image Above" button, it will open a new window with the images loading one by one. Once it is complete, I usually click on the "Speed +" button seven times to get an idea of its direction.

Click Back

To Zoom in is fairly the same - select the number of images to loop, click in the Animation radio button and then select with a single click on the map above to view the area in that image at a 5K resolution scale. Same deal with speeding up the images.

BFF, the download rate might take a little while on your access method but this is a very valuable tool.


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

This is the same site as Post # 73.
http://www.witn.com/content/ipcams/377860191.html
They are getting 50 MPH wind gusts now.








Once I lose power it may be quite a while before I'm able to run the generator.

I"ll be surprised if that doesn't happen before dark today since my power comes in from near Washington, which is closer to the coast.

We are at the very end of their transmission lines, and neighboring counties are already reporting outages.


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

https://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?product=NCR&rid=MHX&loop=yes

Latest Update:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/131444.shtml

"SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.4N 75.5W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM ESE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM E OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
*MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH*...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES"

The eye is still over 100 miles out from projected landfall.


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

The Washington cam has changed views for some reason, but conditions there haven't changed too drastically.
http://www.witn.com/content/ipcams/377854561.html
This is looking more towards the East as near as I can tell.
View attachment 69758


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

Grifton Tower Cam Noon:


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)




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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

The image above should constantly update itself.
My internet connection is being finicky and not letting me edit the post.


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## ed/La (Feb 26, 2009)

http://www.ebmcdn.net/webcast/flash/bogue-inlet/live-iframe.html


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## geo in mi (Nov 14, 2008)

Stay safe, folks.

geo


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

Latest update is good news and bad news.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT1+shtml/131956.shtml
SUMMARY OF 400 PM EDT...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.7N 76.1W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM ESE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM E OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...*WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH*...8 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES

The good news (for me at least) is it's making the Westward turn earlier than expected. 

There is some wind shear along with lower temperatures, so the predicted last minute strengthening likely won't happen now.

The bad news for everyone is the slowing of forward movement which means the rain will last longer, adding to the totals.

We are just now getting into the heavier rain bands, so this may be the start of the non-stop rain for the duration.

I'm amazed the power hasn't gone out here, but tonight and early tomorrow could see things getting worse as far as wind speeds inland and more outages.


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

I saw this one on TV
It was awesome:

https://www.bogueinletpier.com/pier-cam/

They also said max sustained winds were now down to 100 MPH but I haven't seen that from the NHC.


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

25 Miles Southeast:
View attachment 69766

Same location yesterday:


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## ed/La (Feb 26, 2009)

I was surprised by the the number of power outages this early. Not sure of current number but earlier it was over 12k..Expected to be over a million, probably several million. Some of those power plants have mox fuel witch is troubling.


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

ed/La said:


> earlier it was over 12k.


A few hours ago there were 27,000 outages in the next county over.
I'm sure there are many more that haven't been reported.
The strongest winds haven't reached shore.


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

Before:








Now:


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## Shine (Feb 19, 2011)

Satellite seems to show it sitting in place and losing a quite a bit of cohesion.

Something that I have never seen - Ventusky - Wave Heights

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=33.66;-76.54;7&l=wave&t=20180914/00


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

It was just reported there are now 88,000 customers without power, and the eye is still 80 miles offshore. Most of them are in the coastal counties from Carteret South.










Map Courtesy of https://www.digital-topo-maps.com/county-map/north-carolina.shtml

Projected landfall is between Onslow and New Hanover Counties early tomorrow morning if it doesn't stall.


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

Shine said:


> Satellite seems to show it sitting in place and losing a quite a bit of cohesion.


It's slowed to 5 MPH and is getting some dry air wrapped in, along with some wind shear.

We've been very lucky that the weakening has happened, but it would be nice if it would move forward a little faster so as to not dump so much rain.


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

Shine said:


> Something that I have never seen - Ventusky - *Wave Heights*


Surf's Up Dude!!!


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## ed/La (Feb 26, 2009)

We had a little one stall and rain for a week. It was torture.


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

Reported power outages are up to around 108,000.


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

11 PM NHC Update:
-----------------------------------------------
"LOCATION...34.0N 76.8W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF MOREHEAD CITY NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ESE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
*MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH*...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...*NW* OR 305 DEGREES AT* 6 MPH*...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES

Little change in strength is expected before Florence moves inland on Friday.
More *significant weakening is expected over the weekend* and into
early next week while Florence moves farther inland."

More relatively good news.
If it would gain a little more forward speed everyone would be happier, but I'll take what I can get. Still no damage here that I know of, and the lights have flashed off and on a few time but amazingly they haven't stayed off.

Winds here are getting a little stronger so I don't know how long my luck with the power will last.

Many of the web cams I was watching are no longer updating.
I saw a TV report that showed this Washington site with water up in the parking lot.


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## Shine (Feb 19, 2011)

Hey BFF - Let us know when yer internet goes out!

How many Intercontinental Signal Flares do you have in your stores?


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## MoonRiver (Sep 2, 2007)

We know what they predicted a week ago was off by at least a factor of 2. Even what they predicted 2 days ago is off. Maybe hurricane predictors need to borrow from the 100% accurate models of the global warming crowd. 

I'm not saying this hurricane, as any hurricane, is not serious; but watching Fox, they have so much invested in this storm they are going to wring everything they can out of it. I'm sure CNN is doing the same. I've never seen people get so excited about a tree blown over. Instead of the hurricane being a news event, it has become an entertainment event.


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## jimLE (Apr 18, 2018)

I hope that,everyone on the east coast, come through this alright,alive.


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## ed/La (Feb 26, 2009)

Barefoot must have lost power and internet. No updates from him today.


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## whiterock (Mar 26, 2003)

Hopefully, we will hear from him fairly soon.


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## po boy (Jul 12, 2010)

Bear is just south of Greenville. Getting some rain, but away from the eye...


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## nchobbyfarm (Apr 10, 2011)

I cannot speak for his location but here south of Raleigh it has been much less severe than expected. BFF is 60 miles closer to the coast and slightly north of me. I too hope all is well with him. Those in the southeast corner of the state are taking a beating. And the storm has all but stalled as it is only moving 6mph. It is going to continue to soak and blow through Sunday at this speed.


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## Shine (Feb 19, 2011)

This broadcaster was lucky to not to have been picked up and blown away!

https://twitter.com/gourdnibler/status/1040678572262916096


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## ed/La (Feb 26, 2009)

Shine said:


> This broadcaster was lucky to not to have been picked up and blown away!
> 
> https://twitter.com/gourdnibler/status/1040678572262916096


That is a good fake new piece. Here is one. https://twitter.com/Queen_of_Gif/status/1040758320779485185?s=20


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## whiterock (Mar 26, 2003)

Lovin that last one!!!!


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## [email protected] (Sep 16, 2009)

bet that hurt ..
I keep waiting for one of those weather people to get hit by a sheet of plywood or metal roofing.. this was close.


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## farmrbrown (Jun 25, 2012)

The worst of Flo is hitting WNC about now.
May have to fire up the generator soon, the power just flickered a few times.
It's gassed up, wired up to the breaker box, tested 3 days ago and on standby.


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## ed/La (Feb 26, 2009)

farmrbrown said:


> The worst of Flo is hitting WNC about now.
> May have to fire up the generator soon, the power just flickered a few times.
> It's gassed up, wired up to the breaker box, tested 3 days ago and on standby.


Sounds like you are prepared. Is this rain going to flood your fields. Hope all is well. What town are you near? I am following the storm on the net. The slow ones are bad on people's strength. Bearfoot farms has not been around hope he is doing OK. Good luck


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## farmrbrown (Jun 25, 2012)

ed/La said:


> Sounds like you are prepared. Is this rain going to flood your fields. Hope all is well. What town are you near? I am following the storm on the net. The slow ones are bad on people's strength. Bearfoot farms has not been around hope he is doing OK. Good luck


No, this one wasn't bad at all. The 21 inches of rain we got in May was far worse. We aren't far from Chimney Rock and Sunday (yesterday) was predicted to be the worst day, and it was. It rained about 24 hours and totaled maybe 2 inches. An hour east of here is Charlotte and they probably got 3 or 4 times that amount.
This morning looks like it's gonna be a good day, the rain has stopped.
I just checked the radar and Flo has ended up in Ohio since I went to bed last night.



I think BFF lost power a few days ago, hopefully we'll hear from him later this week.
This state is peculiar in that precipitation affects areas very specifically. A mile or two distance can make all the difference. I've been iced in for days and people in town only had a little snow. Some neighbors always have flooded basements and I just have to worry about the driveway getting rutted.

A lot of it has to do with rivers and streams. Coincidentally I watched a PBS show last week on the number of dams in North Carolina, something like 6,800. 80% of them no longer have any use.
I don't know how much of that is true, but I pay attention to water wherever I go as it seems to have a huge impact here in many different ways.
There's a large man made lake nearby, Lake Lure, formed by the confluence of rivers and the dam at one end lets one of them continue downstream towards Central NC and SC.
Last week before the storm they let a BUNCH of water out, most of the boats are now temporarily "dry docked", and you can walk across parts of the lake.
That will probably save a lot damage as this can now act as a reservoir to catch all the mountain runoff that would otherwise head downstream to where they surely don't need any more water right now.


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## TripleD (Feb 12, 2011)

No problems for me. Over 18 inches of rain and no power lost. I'm an a little over an hour east of Charlotte. The pastures are flooded.


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## MoonRiver (Sep 2, 2007)

I had to drive to Roanoke this morning and traffic was at a standstill when I got to Boones Mill. There was water coming off the mountain like a waterfall and I think the drainage culvert got clogged up and flooded the road creating a lot of mud. By the time I got to that area, it was mostly cleaned up so I'm just guessing as to what actually happened, but if you drove off the right hand side of the road, you would have been in about 10" of mud.

When I got back to Danville, it was extremely muggy. Think about those poor people near the coast who are soaking wet and drenched from the humidity. No place to get dry.


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

We managed to survive Florence without major damage, largely through *pure luck.
*
We lost power at 2 AM Friday,9/14, and it was out for 5 days and 17 hours.

It came back on Wednesday, 9/19, at 7 PM.

We also lost the land line phone at that time, and the cell towers went down the next day.
Cell service was restored here night before last, and the land line came back in service around 10:30 this morning. 

Internet service has been much slower than usual, but it's never that good under normal conditions.

I still can't believe how *lucky* we were here.

Towns less than 15 miles from me are under water and some are still without power.

New Bern made the national news due to the devastation there and it's only 25 miles from me, although there are two rivers running though it.

Kinston is about 20 miles and the river there is still rising. It should crest Saturday.

Florence's turn to the West is what made *all* the difference for me. 
Even though we still had over a foot of rain here, just 50 miles from me got over 30".

Even some places just 10 miles to the South had over 2 feet of rain due to "training" of rain bands that pretty much sat over them for 36 hours. 

I'm still hoping we hear from bmhughes89 and @brumer0.
Their areas were much harder hit than mine.
Grifton came out better than most expected.
There's some water across a couple of roads still, but it seems to be receding, and they got their power back yesterday.:










I'll post more later about it all, but now I'm going to catch up on my reading


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## po boy (Jul 12, 2010)

Nice to hear from you and that you came out pretty well considering the circumstances,


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## whiterock (Mar 26, 2003)

glad you are back, safe, and "got lucky"


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## SLADE (Feb 20, 2004)

Glad you made it. I would have missed your contrary disposition.


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## no really (Aug 7, 2013)

Great to hear you came out okay!!


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

Thanks y'all!


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## newfieannie (Dec 24, 2006)

yes indeed! so glad you are safe and back with us. ~Georgia


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## brumer0 (Jan 21, 2015)

Bearfoot, I'm very glad that you are safe!! We only lost power for a little over a day, although there are people not too far from me that just had power restored yesterday. Lots of rain but we had a lot more during Matthew. Had some light wind damage but insurance claims will help the cost. 

I saw that Elizabethtown got almost 3 feet of rain. Geeze I can't imagine that.

Lessons learned from this hurricane are all positive for me. Move animals early, have lots of fuel on hand, and be ready for everything you can.

One thing that I read is very smart: hurricane intensity are rated on their wind. But rain causes much more damage. A category 1 can dump 3 feet of rain, and a category 4 can dump a foot. Just because it's a category 1 doesn't mean the area won't be destroyed.


Stay safe folks. Bearfoot, bmhughes89, let me know if you need help and I'll do my best to do what I can for you.


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

brumer0 said:


> One thing that I read is very smart: hurricane intensity are rated on their wind. But rain causes much more damage.


Glad to hear you came through it relatively well.
I was worried about you when I saw that Fayetteville was submerged and the river was still rising.

We really had no damage at all. It just left lots of leaves and small limbs in the yard.

@bmhughes89 was in the worst location.
Hopefully he will check in soon.

What I learned from this is Honda EU 2000i generators are wonderful!

My old Coleman would run about 8 hours on 5 gallons of gas.

This one powers all the same items while running 11-12 hours on a little less than 1 gallon.


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## Bearfootfarm (Jul 13, 2006)

Interesting pictures of before and after the flooding:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...n-Hurricane-Florence-death-toll-rises-41.html


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